Month: June 2018

  • Hiroshi Fujiwara & things from last week

    I first knew of Hiroshi Fujiwara though his work on old school Japanese hip-hop label Major Force. He was cited as an influence in Bomb The Bass’ first album Into The Dragon. His influence has been much bigger in terms of streetwear and Harajuku culture that fuelled fashion and culture of the past two decades. He is now collaborating Moncler and did some media interviews :

    Thailand is famous for emotion-filled adverts and this Sunsilk film is no exception, dealing with family acceptance of Kathoei (กะเทย). Its a beautiful piece of work by JWT’s Bangkok office.

    I’ve never worn Doctor Martens myself but they were often seen in the school yard and during my early working life. They are as British as Marks & Spencers chicken tikka masala. I thought product had been moved offshore as part of globalisation, but it seems that there is still a small production facility in the UK. The process of how the shoes are made is fascinating.

    The application of machine learning in the criminal justice system is something of concern. The natural inclination of authority is to inflate itself with every tool that progress provides.

    Great documentary on Chinese wealthy migration away from China. The move to Vancouver was pioneered in the early 1970s with wealthy Hong Kongers preparing for its handover in the decades to come. They’ve been followed families who got rich on the mainland following the opening up of the economy.

    It reflects the reality of major cities around the world now as capital flight out of China continues. Non-domestic earnings (like that from Russia and Middle East) is a factor driving unaffordability of housing. The experience of Mau and the opening up founded a culture of ‘now’. This has manifested itself in different ways: capital flight, having a bolt hole abroad and a foreign passport in case things go suddenly bad. It also explains historic product quality issues as entrepreneurs think about the now and let the future take care of itself, preferably while you have gone abroad to live a comfortable life.

  • Income and wealth inequality + more

    Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949-2016 by Kuhn, Schularick and Steins (University of Bonn) – We expose the central importance of portfolio composition and asset prices for wealth dynamics in postwar America. Asset prices shift the wealth distribution because the composition and leverage of household portfolios differ systematically along the wealth distribution. Middle-class portfolios are dominated by housing, while rich households predominantly own equity. An important consequence is that the top and the middle of the distribution are affected differentially by changes in equity and house prices. Housing booms lead to substantial wealth gains for leveraged middle-class households and tend to decrease wealth inequality, all else equal. Stock market booms primarily boost the wealth of households at the top of the distribution. This race between the equity market and the housing market shaped wealth dynamics in postwar America and decoupled the income and wealth distribution over extended periods. The historical data also reveal that no progress has been made in reducing income and wealth inequalities between black and white households over the past 70 years, and that close to half of all American households have less wealth today in real terms than the median household had in 1970. – long read but very worthwhile study on historic US income and wealth inequality. More related content here. (pdf)

    Yahoo Messenger is shutting down on July 17, redirects users to group messaging app Squirrel | TechCrunch – end of an era

    New Ways for Gaming Creators to Get Started and Get Discovered on Facebook | Facebook Newsroom – in app ad bidding

    New Ways to Enjoy Music on Facebook | Facebook Newsroom – rip off of musicia.ly

    Apple Ignores What’s Wrong With the Mac | Sascha Segan | PCMag.com – a pretty fair critique of Mac industrial design

    Apple, where’s the smarter Siri in iOS 12? USA Today – it would be more interesting if one could use the workflows created by others a la IFTTT

    Meet the people who still use Myspace: ‘It’s given me so much joy’ | The Guardian – something to be said for smaller communities

    Facebook Gave Data Access to Chinese Firm Flagged by U.S. Intelligence – The New York Times – it gave access to a number of vendors including the main Chinese players

    The Chinese “gang” manipulating the market — now in EOS?

  • PornHub VPN & other things this week

    PornHub are one of the more interesting brands out there at the moment. Yes I did just write that last sentence. They’ve been hosting content that might be considered transgressive but isn’t porn, they have their own clothing range and a collaboration with New York streetwear brand Richardson. Their Asa Akira t-shirt is well tasteful and office-friendly. Seriously.

    They’ve now launched their own VPN service, which makes sense given what they know about getting streaming to work across networks.

    2B-Alert Web – is US department of defence funded research on optimising your caffeine intake. They are looking to have personalisation options and apps in the future.

    Liquid crystals can be trippy to look at through a microscope. I remember seeing something similar to this eons ago when I spent a bit of time in a Corning lab in North Wales. The lab is now a grass field next to a Toyota engine factory.

    Audi is in the process of launching its new Q8 SUV. They’ve taken a leaf out of BMW’s book; creating an online-only mini-series that initially reminded me of BMW’s The Hire. Good on Audi for signing off on a project like this.  I was a bit disappointed in the execution, it needs work: Q8 Unleashed.

    I’ve talked here before about the market dynamics driving streetwear upmarket to the point that it resembles the eco-system around Hermes’ Birkin bags – part luxury good, part financial investment. This Google talk from Stock X riffs on the theme. Stock X aren’t alone; there are a number of competitors as well as traditional online auctions eBay and Yahoo! Japan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hd8lpHIIEc

  • Three and Superdrug + more

    Three and Superdrug launch new UK MVNO | total telecom – the MVNO deal with Three and Superdrug is a natural deal. Three and Superdrug are both owned by CK Hutchinson Holdings. The interesting bit is the cross business CRM where Three and Superdrug have got together to Superdrug drive loyalty card adoption. More retail related content here.

    THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT needs THE WRONG AND THE SHIT OF IT – BBH – interesting essay. The challenge is where do you get ‘crap’ campaign data from and how well will it be documented?

    Meet Kakao: How Korea’s Largest Mobile Giant Is Embracing Blockchain – CoinDesk – some smart critical thinking

    The Canard About Falling Incomes – WSJ – not an argument that I agree with, but Kessler argues that increasing digital features (like ABS on cars) compensate for the hollowing out of the middle classes (paywall)

    Tesla Model 3 Gets CR Recommendation After Braking Update – Consumer Reports – Teslas inspire a ‘true believer’ type following. I am leery of their ‘always in beta’ car software approach because its a car. So I am more concerned rather than delighted the that company managed to bring its braking distance closer to standard using an other-the-air software update

    Right Media, Creators of the First Ad Exchange | NYMag.com – the rise and fall of Right Media

    Chinese firms pile in to sponsor World Cup 2018 amid Fifa fallout-Sino-US“Chinese companies get two things from sponsoring the World Cup. The first is access to western audiences that they will sooner or later be trying to win over, as their companies expand. The other is a cosmopolitan veneer to their brands, which they hope will resonate with their sizeable domestic markets.” – interesting that BBK’s youth brand Vivo rather than Huawei is the smartphone sponsor

    Grace Dent: ‘The processed food debate is MSG-sprinkled class war’ | Life and style | The Guardian – I would align it more with a Neo Victorian patrician attitude towards the working class

    Cross border insights finder – handy Facebook ad tool

    ‘I make £45k a month buying clothes for other people’ – The FT catches up with diagou 15 years after everyone else. China’s changes in luxury tax, increased travel of consumers, restrictions on capital flight, clampdown on corruption and e-tailing has had its toll on diagou

    Smart bulbs turn dumb: Lights out for Philips as Hue API goes dark • The Register – I get the benefits of technology but why does heating, lighting or other smart home controls have to be mediated through the cloud?

    Holiday Rentals, Homes, Experiences & Places – Airbnb – AirBnB launches stories which seems to be a continuation of its magazines

    What is a smartphone? | ASSA – really nice essay on smartphones and consumer behaviour

    Shenzhen’s tech innovation hothouse overheats – it’s been going on for the decade or so that I have travelled there. The unaffordability, maker spaces which are a real estate ruse to suck government grants and a grinding life pace. Financial services and design have already moved in. Your in less need of maker spaces when workshops can build working prototypes for you

  • The limits of the IPA’s The Long And The Short Of It

    The IPA’s The Long And The Short Of It (TLATSOI) has been a north star for agency strategists since it was published in 2013. It’s now been out there long enough to understand the limits of its approach.  This post started with a blog post that talked about the IPA’s The Long And The Short Of It (TLATSOI) role in the planning and strategy process of the ad industry.

    Thermometer

    The Long And The Short Of It Needs The Wrong And The Shit Of It. Feel free to go and have a read and come back.

    The Limits

    The IPA’s original research had flaws that dictated the limits in the methodology:

    • Focusing purely on successes brings in biases due to the research being taken out of context. Context provided by the ‘complete’ population of good, mediocre and awful campaigns rather than award winners
    • There aren’t any lessons on how not to truly mess up

    TLATSOI isn’t a LinkedIn article

    Its easy to throw shots over the table when someone has done a lot of work. TLATSOI isn’t an article on the ‘five morning habits of Warren Buffet’ to make you successful.

    Les Binet and Peter Field analysed 996 campaigns entered in the IPA Effectiveness awards (1980 – 2010). That would have taken them a considerable amount of time to do. They then managed to write it all up and distill it down into a very slim volume on my bookshelf.

    The work is an achievement and Binet & Field deserve our gratitude and respect. Secondly, other marketing disciplines don’t have their version of TLATSOI. We couldn’t critique TLATSOI if it didn’t exist.

    Let’s say we want to stand on their shoulders and build something more comprehensive than TLATSOI. Just what would it take?

    The limits of working with what you have

    Binet and Field worked with what they have. If you’ve ever written an award entry you’ll know pulling it together is a pain in the arse. 996 award entries represents thousands of weeks of non-billable agency time. This was also strained through their empirical experience in the business, which adds a ‘welcome’ bias.

    Now imagine if that kind of rigor in terms of documentation and analysis was put into mediocre campaigns. The kind of campaign where the client logo barely makes into the agency credentials deck.

    Without a major agency (nudge, nudge, wink, wink BBH) providing all their warts-and-all data, the initative won’t start.

    It will be hard to get what is needed. Agency functions aren’t geared up to deliver the information. A technological solution would take a good while to put in place; and like all IT projects would have a 70% failure rate.

    In an industry where careers are made and talent attracted on ‘hits’; theres a big chunk of realpolitik to address.

    How would you keep a lid on the dirty laundry?

    We live in a connected world. To the point that there are now likely to be four certainties. Birth, death, taxes and data breaches. Imagine a data dump, some Excel skills and what was a bit of snark would do to an agency’s reputation? The stain of an ad agency equivalent of the movie industry Gold Raspberries would likely bury careers.

    What do we measure?

    My friend Rob Blackie started some of the thinking on effectiveness data SLA tiers

    A = Tests the objective directly using a Randomised Control Test (RCT) in a real world environment (e.g. measured at point of sale).
    B = RCT tests of proximate objective (e.g. brand), direct measurement of impacts without correction for population bias or confounding factors (e.g. a sunny week drives a lot of ice cream consumption). Or case studies (independent), quality survey data on changes in behaviour, testing in an artificial environment. For instance a Nielsen Brand Lift study
    C = Case studies (non-independent), data sources that may contain significant bias compared to the underlying population. For instance: Award entries.
    D = Indicative data such as PR coverage, social media Likes and similar.
    E = Anecdotes. Extra points for quality, and reproducibility across different suppliers / evaluators.

    There are challenges capturing long-term branding factors such as advertising ‘ad stock’ or ‘carryover‘. That then takes you into fundemental questions:

    How long is the minimum viable time of campaign duration to be considered for assessment?

    How long should we be measuring long term branding effects? How do you measure ‘clientside’ quality issues:

    • Resourcing / budgets
    • Product
    • Ambience in the case of client-owned channels
    • Adequate quality briefs. Are the objectives written well? Are they relevant to the business
    • Mission creep or changing company agendas

    All of this means that getting to the greater volume of poor campaigns as well as the best is easier said than done. The best way to kick it off would be having large agencies to work together on putting together data sets.