Ged Carroll

Category: business | 商業 | 상업 | ビジネス

My interest in business or commercial activity first started when a work friend of my Mum visited our family. She brought a book on commerce which is what business studies would have been called decades earlier. I read the book and that piqued my interest.

At the end of your third year in secondary school you are allowed to pick optional classes that you will take exams in. this is supposed to be something that you’re free to chose.

I was interested in business studies (partly because my friend Joe was doing it). But the school decided that they wanted me to do physics and chemistry instead and they did the same for my advanced level exams because I had done well in the normal level ones. School had a lot to answer for, but fortunately I managed to get back on track with college.

Eventually I finally managed to do pass a foundational course at night school whilst working in industry. I used that to then help me go and study for a degree in marketing.

I work in advertising now. And had previously worked in petrochemicals, plastics and optical fibre manfacture. All of which revolve around business. That’s why you find a business section here on my blog.

Business tends to cover a wide range of sectors that catch my eye over time. Business usually covers sectors that I don’t write about that much, but that have an outside impact on wider economics. So real estate would have been on my radar during the 2008 recession.

  • A Shadow Intelligence by Oliver Harris

    I was given a galley copy of A Shadow Intelligence to read.

    TLDR: version of my review is that its a thoroughly modern spy thriller.

    The protagonist Elliot Kane is a British intelligence officer who has returned from Saudi Arabia to London. He is sent a video of himself in a room that he’s never been talking to a man that he doesn’t know. Harris takes the reader on a spy story that takes place in the Central Asian republics between China and Russia.

    It is a thoroughly modern book:

    • Addressing the confluence of interests between government and businesses going abroad that had long driven policy and actions in Africa and the Middle East. But is now driving along the Silk Road with the expansion of China’s Belt & Road Initiative and the quest for oil and mining
    • Privatisation of military, cyber and intelligence capabilities. We know have a private intelligence and military industrial complex. Edward Snowden worked for Booz Allen & Hamilton. Palantir do data analysis for intelligence, as does Detica for the UK. SCL Group ran outsourced psychological warfare programmes for western militaries and supported political interference in the developing world
    • Technology including modern information warfare over social media channels, fake news and deep fake videos. Even pretty crude efforts at the moment drive effective disinformation campaigns, deep fake video and audio completely undermines what the nature of truth is.

    Kane comes across as a jaded, human bookish character more George Smiley than James Bond. Harris did his research really well. He brings alive the locations and the main characters.

    If I had one criticism it would be that the end felt a bit rushed, rather like the author was trying to exceed a word count. Despite this I am happy recommending A Shadow Intelligence as a good leisure read. More book reviews here.

  • China is the big winner + more things

    China is the big winner from Europe’s Brexit chaos – which is probably why the UK will get a shitty deal in phase II. China is the big winner because:

    • It ensures its inbound investment into the UK becomes more important. China can have more influence and spend less money proportionally than they had to do before
    • It weakens the EU a bit, in particular amplifying the power of just two partners in the bloc: France and Germany. It means that the northern bloc including the Netherlands has less of a voice in the union creating opportunity for division
    • European power projection is reduced. As is European soft power
    • China is the big winner, but Russia also has similar benefits on a smaller scale

    More on Brexit here.

    McDonalds acquires Israeli company Dynamic Yield | Silicon Angle – really interesting purchase by McDonalds

    Naspers to Separate Tencent Stake, Web Assets in Dutch Listing – Bloomberg – this is just the kind of listing one would have expected in London

    Michael Avenatti charged for attempted extortion of Nike – Business Insider – interesting how a celebrity level lawyer is on the end of this case

    The World’s 50 Most Innovative Companies of 2019 | Fast Company – interesting how APAC companies are at the very top

    LOEWE on Instagram: “When @danielnorris18 is not playing baseball, he loves to climb into his van and hit the open road. Wearing the new #EYELOEWENATURE…” – interesting where Loewe is going with this campaign, crossing the lines between sports marketing, streetwear and luxury

    Materials science is helping to transform China into a high-tech economy – technique-wise very similar to the west. Back over 20 years ago we weren’t using brute force in the labs I worked in but computer-assisted formulations. You did some trials, put the results in. Put in the desired results and then the computer worked to bring you towards an optional formulation using fourier analysis

    Pinterest’s IPO filing, annotated – Digiday – nicely put together if no suprises, worthwhile as a reference / 101

  • Ken Kocienda on software

    Interesting talk with Ken Kocienda, covering his experience on product management and software design at Apple. Kocienda was a software engineer at Apple during Steve Jobs second time as CEO. Kocienda has since written a book – Creative Selection about his experiences.

    Interesting bits include:

    • Apple’s approach to open source in 2001. Apple looked at licensing and building their own software, but felt that open source was the right thing to do. Especially when it was the responsibility of a team of two to build a browser. Netscape was built for 20 different platforms, in that respect the Apple team had an easier time. KDE Conqueror had to only be moved from Linux to the Mac.
    • The role of demos in Apple’s development process. Safari was built with a stop watch because the brief was to deliver the best experience to customers. Speed was the differentiator that Ken Kocienda and the team locked on to very quickly. Dial up usage at the start of the development made page load time critical. A page load test was used on builds to ensure that there was no speed regression, build on build. At launch Safari was three times faster than Microsoft Internet Explorer for the Mac. Demos were done on a regular basis to demonstrate strength and potential of a project as its built.
    • Importance of focus. Apple doesn’t ship a lot of products (compared to rivals). Essentially the Mac line-up is four products laptop and desktop, consumer and professional. Because of the focus, it allowed the management to keep tabs on how the software doing.
    • The concept of a “Directly Responsible Individual”. Team formation and building was important part of culture. Top down leadership and bottom up contributions. The vision was very clearly communicated.
    • The role of whimsy and playfulness in designing software

    More on Apple here.

  • The Facebook pivots to WeChat post

    Wonks clearly saw parallels. Hence the short form ‘Facebook pivots to WeChat’. The first thing I’d advise you to do is read Mark Zuckerberg’s notes on how he is planning to move Facebook as a business. There’s a link at the bottom of this post to it, I’ll still be here when you come back.

    Mark Zuckerberg f8 Keynote

    The reactions were:

    • Facebook is trying to ‘kill’ Apple
    • Advertisers need to be concerned about Facebook’s moves
    • Facebook’s pivot is a diversion or play to get out from under future regulation
    • It’s fake, or variants of that
    • It’s about asserting market dominance
    • It’s a move against Snap
    • It’s a ‘China’ type move, trying to corner the free internet

    These takes are mirrors of our own views and concerns as about Facebook. I am not a Facebook apologist, by any means. But I could see a clear parallel between Facebook and concerns about television, the communist threat or big oil. And to a large extent Facebook is highly deserving of our skepticism.

    So let’s start breaking them off one by one:

    Facebook is trying to ‘kill’ Apple

    Apple has managed to differentiate from Google and other web giants by its privacy focus. This is because advertising isn’t that important to Apple’s business model. Where Apple have tried advertising, they haven’t been that successful at it.

    Facebook’s messaging focus ‘doing a WeChat’ has caused others to draw clear parallels with China. In particular, Apple’s problems in China and WeChat. The simple answer is that its complicated:

    • Apple’s problems in China aren’t just about WeChat. WeChat creates a level playing field between Chinese Android-based and iOS user experience. Because consumers spend so much time inside the application, rather than the OS
    • Both Apple and Chinese manufacturers lose services revenue to WeChat. On a per device basis, this particularly penalises manufacturers like Xiaomi who break even on the handset at best
    • Apple has tested the price elasticity of the premium phone market in China (and elsewhere). Channel discounting has been shown to drive a massive uptake in sales

    Facebook’s messaging strategy poses a challenge to mobile operators, Google’s Android messaging offering and Apple Messages equally.

    Mobile phone operators saw messaging traffic drop precipitously over the past decade. China Mobile were one of the first operators of video and SMS over the internet with its Fetion texting service. This was shut down three years ago in the face competition from Youku, QQ Video and WeChat.

    The GSM Association has tried to fight back against the decline in SMS and MMS messaging with Rich Communications Services (RCS). It is supported on Android Messages app and Google has looked as wider implementation.

    RCS is currently supported by 11 smartphone manufacturers and 55 mobile network operators across Asia, the Americas, Africa and Europe. Facebook may support it, but is likely to compete against it. Apple hasn’t announced support for RCS (yet).

    Here’s what Mark said, nothing particularly controversial but a nice analysis of current development options.

    You can already send and receive SMS texts through Messenger on Android today, and we’d like to extend this further in the future, perhaps including the new telecom RCS standard. However, there are several issues we’ll need to work through before this will be possible. First, Apple doesn’t allow apps to interoperate with SMS on their devices, so we’d only be able to do this on Android. Second, we’d need to make sure interoperability doesn’t compromise the expectation of encryption that people already have using WhatsApp. Finally, it would create safety and spam vulnerabilities in an encrypted system to let people send messages from unknown apps where our safety and security systems couldn’t see the patterns of activity.

    A privacy-focused vision for social networking – Mark Zuckerberg March 6, 2019

    What its most likely to do is strip value added services away from carriers, Google and Apple; rather than Apple on it’s own. Encryption alone doesn’t mean security or privacy; but Apple needs to provide that level of nuance to premium consumers. Given the Google Android services there is still blue water between the eco-systems.

    Advertisers need to be concerned about Facebook’s moves

    Advertisers on Facebook always need to be concerned about Facebook’s moves. The people with most to worry are people who build their businesses on Facebook’s platform. But that isn’t a new issue, its been a mistake that marketers have made over-and-over again in the digital realm. And they’ll still keep making the mistake.

    In many respects, Facebook advertising has had to change. The reason why Facebook has been putting out features like stories and carousels is because of ‘context collapse‘. Back in 2015, the Information wrote about how Facebook users were sharing less. Sharing less means less room for ad inventory in the news feed and less reasons for the audience to remain engaged with the newsfeed.

    However, Facebook won’t fully give up on the town hall type environment that the news feed provides to advertisers, don’t take Mark’s word for it: follow the money.

    Public social networks will continue to be very important in people’s lives — for connecting with everyone you know, discovering new people, ideas and content, and giving people a voice more broadly. People find these valuable every day, and there are still a lot of useful services to build on top of them. But now, with all the ways people also want to interact privately, there’s also an opportunity to build a simpler platform that’s focused on privacy first.

    A privacy-focused vision for social networking – Mark Zuckerberg March 6, 2019

    Zuckerberg needed to do something to combat context collapse, even if the regulatory environment hadn’t got a lot worse for him. It also means the declining amount of information available to advertisers will continue to go that way.

    On the plus side if you look at WeChat, you can see the kind of directions Facebook is likely to take:

    • Advertising / promoted content
    • On-platform services and retail
    • E-commerce
    • Mini-applications
    • Payments
    • Ticketing
    • Electronic real ID

    And the one thing that we can be sure about with Mark Zuckerberg is that he doesn’t like leaving money at the table. Expect change, (continue) to be concerned about advertising efficiency and effectiveness, but don’t worry about not having Facebook as a channel in the future.

    Facebook’s pivot is a diversion or play to get out from under future regulation

    There are a few angles to this which I am going to break down into two parts:

    Facebook’s interest

    • The more entrenched across services, the harder Facebook will be to take action against. Facebook would be harder to break apart in any future anti-trust court decision
    • The move towards messaging could reduce the issues that Facebook faces in terms of moderating speech and preventing bad behaviour 
    • Pushes Facebook’s PR / repetitional issues under the rug

    Consumer interest

    • From a consumer interest point of view Facebook is showing a willingness to go beyond encryption by carefully choosing where its data centres go for maximum regulatory protection. (Though one would still fall under the extra-territorial laws of the five Is countries in particular the US, UK and Australia at the moment)
    • Consumer convenience due to focus on interoperability, so one might not need to have both WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger on a device – in theory at least

    It’s fake, or variants of that

    We won’t know the true level of sincerity and commitment of Facebook to make a positive impact through this pivot. Facebook’s brand is so low, it is very easy to believe the very worst in them. I can’t say that I am surprised this came out in the commentary but I am prepared to hold fire on judgement just yet.

    It’s about asserting market dominance

    Some commentators saw a clear link between Facebook’s pivot and Microsoft’s push into web browsers. Both companies were threatened by disruption and utilised their existing market dominance in their markets in current products to extend their dominance into future eras. Businesses by their very nature try to maintain and grow themselves. It would be a natural outcome of Facebook’s pivot.

    Microsoft’s move eventually led to the Judge Jackson ruling against Microsoft. Something that Facebook would be very keen to avoid.

    Part of the reason why Facebook bought WhatsApp originally was partly put down to Mark Zuckerberg’s concern about only having one great idea. He wanted to bulk up the Facebook brain trust with WhatsApp’s management. We know that didn’t end well with the management team eventually departing. This pivot could be seen as an antidote to Zuckerberg’s creative bankruptcy.

    It’s a move against Snap

    The competition posed to one-to-one messaging was perceived by analyst Richard Greenfield of BTIG as a threat to Snap. Facebook is very competitive, but Facebook has bigger markets to focus on with this move. Effects on Snap would be a welcome bonus rather than a key focus. Snap has bigger issues at the moment:

    • User growth is moribund. Instagram has already ‘outsnapped’ Snap with its fast follower copying of Snap’s features
    • Snap needs to do better in generating advertising revenue

    In essence it’s like sleeping with a hippo. It could roll over and crush you without even realising what it managed to do in its sleep. Its a move that is likely to adversely affect Snap, but its by no means all about Snap.

    It’s a China type move trying to corner the free internet

    This particular trope came from Fox Business. What’s interesting is that one would expect the outlet to be pro-free markets. The commentary by Kurt Knutsson talks about the inescapability of Facebook and conflates the similarities with WeChat to argue Facebook is sinister in a similar manner to ‘China’. The thing I took away from it is the cross-party skepticism on Facebook, privacy and market power.

    If you would have told me a decade ago that a right wing business publication would have been concerned about free markets and market dominance I wouldn’t have believed you.

    Facebook’s assumptions

    Facebook’s pivot requires some major changes in the companies technical ability:

    • Currently Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp use encryption from the Open Whisper Systems project that gave us Signal Messenger. Signal is an open source product funded by donations to the Signal Foundation. It isn’t a core strength of Facebook
    • A lot of WeChat’s secret sauce is how they managed to build so much functionality into its mobile app without taking away from the user experience. This is in sharp contrast to the plethora of apps currently used for Facebook. It poses a major UX design challenge for Facebook
    • Facebook can expand to new areas successfully such as payments – again not an area where Facebook has previously known to be successful

    There is an assumption that Facebook’s communications team can give it enough space to allow the pivot to be put in place. Facebook’s management team won’t drop the ball between now and the pivot.

    More information

    A privacy-focused vision for social networking by Mark Zuckerberg – shared on his facebook page.

    Facebook’s pivot must be viewed with scepticism | Financial Times

    Facebook’s former chief of security says its privacy pivot is ‘punting’ on its hardest issues | The Verge

    Facebook’s Biggest Bull Sees Privacy Pivot as Move Against Snap | Bloomberg

    Facebook’s Awkward Pivot to Privacy | Slate

    Facebook’s pivot is bigger than privacy | Axios

    Facebook’s Fake Pivot To Privacy | Forbes – As a social network, Facebook, has 15 million fewer users today than in 2017. During October – December of 2018, 23% of Facebook users in the U.S. showed signs of activity, e.g. updated their status or posted a comment, as compared to 32% at the same time in 2017. In 2016, Facebook accounted for more than half of time spent on social networks, but that figure is anticipated to be 44.6% in 2019, while, for the first time, from 2018 on, it was expected that Facebook usage among the 11-24 demographic – highly coveted by advertisers – would decline.

    Facebook privacy pivot a China-type move, trying to corner the free world: Cyber Guy | Fox Business

    Building your business in Mark’s house | renaissance chambara – on the perils of over-reliance on platforms.

    Facebook and advertising or why Facebook is a dead man walking part III? | renaissance chambara

    Why Facebook is a dead man walking part II? | renaissance chambara

    Why Facebook is a dead man walking | renaissance chambara

    Jargon Watch: context collapse | renaissance chambara

  • Geothermal energy + more things

    Swedish technology could make geothermal energy as mainstream as wind and solar | Quartz – interesting because it deals with the lumpy supply issue of wind and solar in the energy mix. Geothermal energy is closer to the steady production of nuclear or coal fired power stations operated in an optimal manner. Although geothermal energy has been well understood for decades, a key problem has been keeping the fissures open that geothermal energy relies on to create steam.

    UK cash system ‘on the verge of collapse’, report finds | Money | The Guardian – putting the Queen on debit cards anyone?

    Rone artist takeover of hotel site | ABC – right strategic approach to build buzz but wrong vision

    Audi hasn’t forgotten about fuel cells – Roadshow – which makes a lot more infrastructure sense than electric charging due to energy density benefits

    Jibo Is Probably Totally Dead Now – IEEE Spectrum – The servers for Jibo the social robot are apparently shutting down. Multiple owners report that Jibo himself has been delivering the news: “Maybe someday when robots are way more advanced than today, and everyone has them in their homes, you can tell yours that I said hello.” – that’s probably the saddest thing I’ve heard in robotics since I learned about Sony Aibo Mk ! device owners having Shinto funerals for them when they gave up the ghost. It also shows the flaw in cloud connected consumer products

    Europe’s AI start-ups often do not use AI, study finds | Financial Times – Two-fifths of Europe’s artificial intelligence start-ups do not use any AI programs in their products, according to a report that highlights the hype around the technology. The research by London-based investment firm MMC Ventures could not find any evidence, based on public information and interviews with executives, of artificial intelligence applications at 40 per cent of 2,830 AI start-ups in Europe (paywall)

    The Aldi effect: how one discount supermarket transformed the way Britain shops | Business | The Guardian – The checkout assistants, who had been trained to memorise the price of every item in the store, were so fast that shoppers experienced what some would come to call “Aldi panic” – the fear that you cannot pack your goods quickly enough.

    Flickr dumps despised Yahoo login system – CNET – gosh when I remember how controversial the move to Yahoo! ID was for flickr users back in March 2007. It was a defining moment in the community and its obvious that grudge has continued to be held by old skool users

    Huawei Said to Be Preparing to Sue the U.S. Government – The New York Times – interesting move to try and get the US government to show its hand, on the other hand the US government can just go over case studies like T-Mobile and the African Union hacking as evidence

    Revealed: Facebook’s global lobbying against data privacy laws | Technology | The Guardian – Shock horror Facebook lobbyists aren’t just bag carriers but actually do their job

    Bollinger Motors: a Refreshingly Traditional 4×4 Company • Gear Patrol – While other manufacturers fetishize connectivity, Bollinger Motors plans to sever the digital connection. The B1 and B2 won’t offer autonomous capability. There are no current plans for a digital cloud infrastructure. The trucks will have manual windows and door locks. Driving a B1 or B2 won’t be a pure ascetic throwback. You’ll be able to connect your phone to the stereo. But, the goal is to offer an escape. That reads to me like a new definition of automotive luxury.

    UK unicorn Revolut is fighting back after its week from hell | Business Insider – I expect to see many more exposes like this

    Read Pornhub Launches Safe for Work Category that Features Videos without Nudity | Pornhub – interesting that PornHub is branching into SFW (suitable for work) content and that this move seems to be inspired by Starbucks putting a porn filter on its free wifi. Unfortunately Pornhub’s ad vendor Traffic Junky keeps showing NSFW material on the page and you have to wonder about brand safety with Pornhub relying on a creator submitted SFW tag which doesn’t police NSFW content within it. More media related content here.