Ni hao – this category features any blog posts that relate to the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese communist party, Chinese citizens, consumer behaviour, business, and Chinese business abroad.
It is likely the post will also in other categories too. For example a post about Tong Ren Tang might end up in the business section as well. Inevitably everything is inherently political in nature. At the moment, I don’t take suggestions for subject areas or comments on content for this category, it just isn’t worth the hassle.
Why have posts on China? I have been involved in projects there and had Chinese clients. China has some interesting things happening in art, advertising, architecture, design and manufacturing. I have managed to experience some great and not so great aspects of the country and its businesses.
Opinions have been managed by the omnipresent party and this has affected consumer behaviour. Lotte was boycotted and harassed out of the country. Toyota and Honda cars occasionally go through damage by consumer action during particularly high tensions with Japan.
I put stuff here to allow readers to make up their own minds about the PRC. The size of the place makes things complicated and the only constants are change, death, taxes and the party. Things get even more complicated on the global stage.
The unique nature of the Chinese internet and sheltered business sectors means that interesting Galapagos syndrome type things happen.
I have separate sections for Taiwan and Hong Kong, for posts that are specific to them.
Political theorist and author Francis Fukuyama wrote one of the mis-understood books of the late 20th century. The End of History (And The Last Man) was written in 1989 and the title and Francis Fukuyama have been misquoted endlessly since.
At the 2020 Munich Security Conference Francis Fukuyama gave a talk about the book and what it actually meant from his perspective.
This one on tribalism on and populism is also very interesting.
Business
Great video on the history of HNA, which went under a mountain of debt and was unwound by the Chinese government.
HNA started off as Hainan Airlines before expanding internationally and across sectors.
Wokeness as mainline orthodoxy – Noahpinion – Musa al-Gharbi has a recent article with quite a bit of data showing that journalistic and academic attention to the topics of diversity, bias, privilege, and so on seems to have peaked, while “cancel culture” incidents have decreased on campuses and in corporations, and political opinions on various social issues have moderated a bit. Anecdotally, corporate interest in DEI seems to be waning as well. Other observers like Tyler Cowen have noticed the trend.
Luxury
Survey Finds Japanese People’s Dream Car Is a Lexus | Nippon.com – bad news for Mercedes & BMW. This isn’t about Japanese nationalism as Mercedes and BMW have enjoyed healthy sales in the country in the past. Much of this is about the massification of these brands and the decline in quality in comparison to the single-mindedness of Lexus engineers.
Marketing
The Drum | How Nestlé Is Using AI To Set Creative Rules For Its 15,000 Marketers – In 2021, Nestlé started to put all its creative through an AI platform that would rank ads based on their suitability to different online platforms and pull out the key elements that are required for maximum ROI. That process created a set of ’rules’ for successful campaigns and early tests generated transformational results, finding that ads that meet the new creative requirements generate a significantly higher return on ad spend. Now, Nestlé’s 15,000 marketers across 2,000 brands in 200 territories have to test the ads in the machine learning platform prior to rolling a campaign out – my biggest concern is that this becomes reductive in terms of creativity and self reinforcing rather than facilitating the picking of true winners. Secondly, I could see it over-indexing on brand activation rather than brand building spend and ultimately destroy value
Hong Kong Stock Market filing – the Company (China Renaissance Holdings – *added this for clarity) has been unable to contact Mr. Bao Fan (“Mr. Bao”), Chairman of the Board, Executive Director, Chief Executive Officer and the controlling shareholder of the Company. The Board is not aware of any information that indicates that Mr. Bao’s unavailability is or might be related to the business and/or operations of the Group which is continuing normally (PDF) – Bao Fan has been incommunicado for a number of days. He is not responding to messages. While its unusual and considered bad practice having the same person as chairman and CEO, in China its more common. So Bao’s dual role at China Renaissance Holdings isn’t unusual. But that is the least of the worries that western investors will have about China Renaissance Holdings at the moment.
Meituan delivery workers waiting for the food to be prepared
Some thoughts:
China Renaissance Holdings has been involved in funding some of China’s biggest technology companies including Didi (think of Lyft or Uber as a western analogue) and Meituan (Deliveroo, Doordash or Just Eat equivalent.
Didi in particular seems to have gained the wraith of the Chinese government. Some of this feels to be down to sexism due to the company having a connected female president Jean Liu. The party leans more toward the Andrew Tait school of feminism
Mr Bao Fan’s disappearance evoked memories of Jianhua Xiao and his company Tomorrow Holdings. Xiao was snatched and smuggled out of his apartment in the Four Seasons in Hong Kong back in 2017. Xiao for a few years all that people knew was that he was wheeled out of the hotel asleep in a wheelchair despite having a security team. He then spent a few years ‘helping‘ authorities unwind his business Tomorrow Holdings. Finally, he got sent to prison for 13 years with charges including embezzlement and fraud. If this happens with China Renaissance Holdings, or any of the prominent companies that it has as clients like Meituan there would be a shockwave, even through the most pro-China of foreign investors like Bridgewater Capital or Goldman Sachs
Bao Fan is one of several executives who were disappeared for a while. The most prominent executive who disappeared from the public eye was Jack Ma. Ma then stepped back from his businesses. If Bao steps back from China Renaissance Holdings, the Chinese tech sector will lose an investment rainmaker. China Renaissance Holdings maybe unwound or its assets handed over to state-owned banking institutions
What happens next will likely impact western sentiment towards Chinese investment in the short to medium turn, but financial institutions are still seduced by the ‘Chinese opportunity’. And the smart money this time might be wrong
Patriotic Alternative wasn’t a name familiar to me when I first heard about them instigating a riot in Liverpool on Saturday night. It doesn’t take that much to create a ruckus in some of the poorer areas of Liverpool.
I wasn’t particularly surprised by the burnt out police van; it sounds like a Merseyside Saturday night that went a bit out of control. That’s as Liverpudlian as a fried breakfast served in a ‘bin lid’ – a large white bun or bap large enough to contain bacon, sausage, a fried egg or two and brown sauce.
But there were aspects that did surprise me and all signs point to Patriotic Alternative. It’s a multi-cultural city, everyone has relatives abroad whether its extended Irish family, West Indians or deep connections within the Chinese diaspora. Which is why I was surprised that Patriotic Alternative managed to stir up so much trouble against an asylum hotel in the Knowsley area of Liverpool.
The city does have a certain degree of prejudice; primarily sectarianism. Its one of the few areas in England that has a marching season rather like Northern Ireland with an Orange Order parade held annual in Southport back when I lived up there. But Knowsley was something else. Patriotic Alternative managed to do something that I never thought was possible in cities like Liverpool or Bristol.
So reading about the event and the role of Patriotic Alternative in Dazed was an eye opener. It portrayed a city that I no longer recognised. Patriotic Alternative apparently organised the protest on a Telegram channel. What Dazed claim happened is that mainstream political statements and mainstream media coverage created an environment ripe for trouble makers like Patriotic Alternative.
According to Hope Not Hate, Patriotic Alternative shared members with prescribed far right organisation National Action. For an organisation that has a couple of hundred core members Patriotic Alternative has an outsized footprint. This footprint seems to be driven by the Patriotic Alternative Telegram channel with some 5,000 followers
Consumers in the 1970s on the changing nature of growing old, unfortunately attitudes and biases haven’t improved in the last 50 years.
Economics
US chip packaging firm Amkor closes its Shanghai plant for a week amid global market downturn | South China Morning Post – this is signalling a recession, as was AP shipments to Chinese smartphone brands stay in decline in 1Q23, says DIGITIMES Research – Fourth-quarter 2022 smartphone application processor (AP) shipments to China-based smartphone vendors amounted to 137 million units, plunging 24% from the prior quarter and 20.3% from the prior year, and will continue to experience a double-digit decline in the first quarter of 2023, according to figures from DIGITIMES Research’s latest report covering smartphone AP shipments. Because of shrinking demand and high smartphone inventory at the channel in both China and emerging markets, AP shipments to China-based smartphone vendors had already experienced on-year declines for five consecutive quarters
How China Fell In Love With Cheap Wine | Sixth Tone – reminds me of my time working on the Bordeaux wine marketing board as an account at the agency I worked for in Hong Kong. The work was focused on mainland China and promoted Bordeaux as a lifestyle brand for wine consumption rather than just gift giving
Massachusetts Democratic organ donation proposal sounds like prisoner organ harvesting. | Slate – Democratic state representatives Carlos González and Judith García introduced legislation that would allow incarcerated people to go home early—if they “donated” their organs. Specifically, the bill would “allow eligible incarcerated individuals to gain not less than 60 and not more than 365-day reduction in the length of their committed sentence” if they “donated bone marrow or organ(s).” Gonzalez argued that the bill was a step towards advancing racial equity in health care and making it easier for people of color to obtain transplants.
Hong Kong
The Hong Kong government must break its habit of relying on property developers | South China Morning Post – the article itself isn’t that interesting, but the author is. Regina Ip would be what the conservative party in the UK would call a big beast. She is a former minister level politician in the pro-China camp. Add to this the fact that despite mainland Chinese companies now outnumber local and foreign firms in Hong Kong and the economy is in decline. I expect Ip’s op-ed to be the tip of an iceberg of a shift in economic drivers that will occur sometime after John Lee leaves office. The clock is ticking on the big five families to diversify their wealth out of Hong Kong and China, following Jardines example to go into Indonesia might be a prudent start
Hong Kong reopens with post-Covid charm offensive | Financial Times – Johannes Hack, president of Hong Kong’s German Chamber of Commerce, who sits on a new task force to promote the city, said a “long-haul” effort to change business perceptions would have to go beyond plane ticket giveaways. “If you have relocated corporate functions to another place, half a year later you are probably not going to reverse the whole thing,” he said. “People who have moved to Singapore with their teen kids, there is no way they are going to do that again . . . They are not going to come back.” – feeds into the ‘its just another city in China now’ narrative
UK universities starting to lose allure for Chinese | News | The Times – well that’s screwed the Ponzi scheme that universities have engaged in via over-priced student accommodation real estate investments for reasons that aren’t exactly clear given their ownership structure and charters
Japanese fashion magazine Popteen ends physical version, switches to web installments instead – move to online only and moving away from monthly updates. Popteen ended its physical publishing as of February 1, 2023, with the February 2023 edition (released on December 28, 2022) being its last. web-based articles will be released on the first and the 15th of every month, known as “Popteen media”, and full editions of the fashion magazine will be updated a few times annually. The main reason for switching to the web edition was to make the magazine more accessible to middle and high-school students, who may not receive an allowance or be able to work part-time to afford physical copies of Popteen
Great video on microchip counterfeiting and recycling. The Japanese are doing some of the best work authenticating chips. Also if its bad for US defence contractors, just imagine how bad it will be for the sanctioned Russian defence sector.
Seeing for the Sightless – Luo, 26, suffers from congenital cataracts and is pursuing a degree in acupuncture and massage therapy at a college in Beijing. He needs help on the scales as there is no voice assistant function at the training center. On a mobile app called Be My Eyes (BME), he sends out a video call. Pointing his phone camera at the scales, he asks, “Hello, can you read the number for me, please?” A volunteer on the other end tells him, “91 kg.” Luo says thanks and hangs up. Usually, these exchanges only last a few seconds. Being tech savvy, Luo wrote a program back in high school to help the visually impaired memorize English vocabulary, something he himself struggled with. The app would randomly pick a word from a list he composed and he would spell it out after hearing the word. BME, developed by Hans Jørgen Wiberg, a visually impaired man from Denmark, drew Luo’s attention as soon as the Android version was available in China in 2017. Currently, there are 445,000 visually impaired users from all over the world and more than six million volunteers on BME.
Style
Adidas Tumbles as Losses From Its Kanye West Venture Pile Up – The New York Times – interesting how badly Ivy Park is doing and this on their business in China: Adidas in China: a brand seeking its redemption – In the second half of 2022, Adidas CEO Kasper Rorsted estimated losses of revenue of more than 35% in the Chinese market. He declared that such a violent drop was caused by some mistakes. For instance, the struggle of keeping up with the local brands, the failed recovery after the zero-covid policy, and the scandal of Xinjiang cotton.After the winter Olympics, the trend of Guochao, or the “national trend”, started to develop. More young Chinese consumers prefer buying local brands rather than western sportswear brands. In August 2022, the local firm, Anta, overtook Nike and became the biggest sportswear brand in China with a revenue of more than USD3.79 billion. Li-Ning, another Chinese firm, also registered revenue of USD1.76 billion against Adidas’ USD1.72 billion, pushing the German brand out of the podium. The zero-Covid policy has been a big problem for Adidas. In 2022, the company had to deal with closed shops and rising costs. In particular, the general lockdown which paralyzed China for the last few years resulted in the desegregation of the complex system of supply chains built up by the German brand. The disrupted supply chains cost Adidas a loss of USD427 million in the first quarter of 2022.
SMIC expects 10-12% revenue drop in 1Q23 | DigiTimes – China-based pure-play foundry Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) expects to post a revenue decline of 10-12% sequentially in the first quarter of 2023, with gross margin falling further to 19-21%.
MotherDuck: Big Data is Dead – Jordan Tigani spent ten years working on Google BigQuery, during which time he was surprised to learn that the median data storage size for regular customers was much less than 100GB. In this piece he argues that genuine Big Data solutions are relevant to a tiny fraction of companies, and there’s way more value in solving problems for everyone else. I’ve been talking about Datasette as a tool for solving “small data” problems for a while
Chinese New Year or CNY 2023 in online shorthand meant that for many people through Asia and beyond we are now in the year of the rabbit. You may see CNY 2023 also called lunar new year or ‘spring festival’. This post is later than I usually do for Chinese New Year, but that delay allowed me to watch more adverts so that you didn’t have to.
Traits of Chinese New Year
The rabbit is one of 12 signs in the Chinese zodiac. During the festival a number of things happen:
Family members try to gather and visit wider family members. In mainland China, this triggers the world’s largest internal migration of people over a three week period. An article by Bloomberg estimated that mainland Chinese people will have made more than 520 million trips within the country by road, rail, water or air in the first 13 days of the new year
People stay up late together, this apparently helps to give longevity to your parents
There is a corresponding rise in food purchases, alcohol and other ancillary items. Depending where you are families may make dumplings together or toss bowls of noodles together in order to gain good fortune and prosperity
There is a tradition of buying new clothes. In Hong Kong, going to sleep in (new) red underwear is believed to give good luck. Having a red theme to clothes is supposed to help bring good fortune
Money. Money in currency and gold is gifted in red envelopes. Companies will pay their employees a lunar new year bonus, usually equivalent to one pay packet (a weeks wages, or a month’s salary was the norm in Hong Kong.) Bosses also give their employees a red envelope from their personal pocket.
There are media events. So in Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia there is usually a ‘Chinese New Year’ song specially composed. Special films that are suitable for all age groups do well in the cinema such as Hong Kong’s ‘All’s Well that ends well’ series of movies
Consequently, from an advertising perspective this can be equivalent to Super Bowl Sunday in the United States or the Christmas season in the UK when brands drop their tent pole ad creative.
Ad dynamics
In general, the best adverts seem to come from Malaysia and Singapore rather than Hong Kong or China and CNY 2023 is no exception. Businesses that lean in particularly heavy to CNY 2023 advertising include telecoms companies, banks and financial services and health companies. Some FMCG brands also get involved, but that seems to be more sporadic in nature. Finally in CNY 2023, some sectors like airlines have more customers than they do available seats so there doesn’t seem to be a campaign by the likes of Cathay Pacific this year.
China
Apple
Apple puts on a film that showcases Chinese opera and tells an individual tale of persistence as part of its shot on an iPhone series of films.
https://youtu.be/HjHG5kzi85o
Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola features a touching story about a family of rabbits celebrating lunar new year. I can’t embed here because Coca-Cola China seems to be using all YouTube’s copyright tools for some reason.
It apparently says:
Time will change, traditions will change, and the expectation of reunion will never change. A bowl of handmade dumplings evokes the taste of the New Year in memory. A can of Coca-Cola can fully release the beauty of reunion. The first words of reunion in everyone’s mouth are Coca-Cola® Cheers! Regardless of whether the dishes on the table this year are classic dishes or trendy New Year dishes, as long as they are paired with “Coca-Cola”, the magic of delicious food can be opened, and the whole family can welcome the new and beautiful “rabbit-morrow” together!
Translation by Hakumi Chan
Gucci
China is opening up and Gucci wants to get its share of revenge spending. Hence a lavish short film to celebrate the year of the Rabbit (and a platinum UnionPay card to buy it with).
Hong Kong
Asahi Dry
Japanese lager Asahi Super Dry put together this ad with surprising production values compared to other efforts in the market.
Malaysia
Bing Chilling
Bing Chilling is a local ice cream brand. It has an ear worm of a Chinese New Year song and manages to make the product fit naturally into the film – which is no mean feat.
https://youtu.be/vB633cGTP70
Khazanah Nasional
Khazanah Nasional Berhad (“Khazanah”) is the sovereign wealth fund of Malaysia. The film about a ‘leap of fortune’ is an apropos theme to the brand.
KitKat
To celebrate KitKat pink ice cream Nestle’s ice cream marketers commissioned an advert that put together a catchy song and campy outfitted young people to create CNY 2023 perfection.
Listerine
Listerine mouthwash captures the tension of a family photo orchestrated by a demanding Auntie.
Magnum
Magnum is a mobile gaming app, as a brand think of it as a Malaysian analogue to Foxy Bingo.
Mercedes Benz
Pure product porn with a flimsy plot line of a reunion for Chinese New Year.
Pepsi
Pepsi focuses on nostalgia with a slice of romance in its advert.
A second Pepsi film encourages consumers to finish their canned drinks rather than having multiple cans partly used – a common problem during lunar new year gatherings. Creatively, you can see the influence of Hong Kong television programmes on wider asian culture to this day.
Taylor’s University
Malaysia’s system which games access to public education to the benefit of the Malay ethnic group has fuelled demand for private universities at home and abroad. Taylor’s University is a private university based in Selangor. This seven minute film comes across as your usual tearjerker, but has a couple of twists in the plot to keep you guessing.
TuneTalk
Malaysian pre-paid mobile carrier TuneTalk focused on how broken friendships and relationships are healed as part of the process of coming together through CNY 2023. Alex and Cindy will be reunited!
Watsons
Hong Kong headquartered pharmacy retail chain wishes you a Happy Beautiful New Year for CNY 2023.
Singapore’s incumbent telecoms company brings back the rival, but related Ang and Huang families for their fourth outing in their annual series Chinese New Year advertisements.
Tiger beer
Singapore’s Tiger beer did this advert for its home market. It also did experiential activities that tied into the advert too. The agency who did it is called Le PUB – nominative determinism in action.
Wider diaspora
HSBC Canada (in partnership with the Asian Art Museum of San Francisco)
The case study speaks for itself and I can understand why it appeals to well heeled Vancouver residents who call Hong Kong home.
McDonalds US x Karen X Cheng
The US arm of McDonalds partnered with Karen X Cheng to create augmented reality based CNY 2023 with a QRcode type glyph on food packaging at participating restaurants.
China is no longer a good thing on your CV, part of this is down to ‘Brand China’. You are likely to be viewed negatively by peers and even family members at home. From the Chinese perspective, foreigners are now viewed with more suspicion and distaste as the government has fermented fear of foreign spies and nationalistic populism. I am sure that the Chinese government would see it as advantageous if locals had these jobs instead. A position in China might be a rear-guard action now while the future of the corporation that you work for will now be elsewhere in Southeast Asia
There are better opportunities elsewhere in South East Asia such as Singapore, Vietnam or even Indonesia. A lack of travel to China opened up the eyes of foreign c-suite members who have spent a good deal of time looking elsewhere. Even businesses like Apple are looking at their supply chain options
China is more expensive to live in. Costs had been shooting up in the years running up to COVID-19 and haven’t got any cheaper
Accessing timely, good quality healthcare is an issue
Effective tax has risen a lot. You will have to pay into local pensions that you will never be able to use. So you are paying more tax and living in a much more expensive country
The Chinese visa system is much more hassle filled
China’s preference for hostage diplomacy
International schools have to follow a Chinese curriculum due to changes in regulations. If you value your child’s education, you will no longer want them to go to school there
The businesses that made life more tolerable in China have been disappearing. I won’t list off the range of bars in restaurants, but also access to English language books, formerly through stores like The Book Worm in Beijing. The eco-system of businesses that supported expats living in China is rapidly disappearing even before COVID-19 hit
A progressively stricter and harder to crack version of the ‘Great Firewall’
