Ged Carroll

Category: consumer behaviour | 消費者行為 | 소비자 행동

Consumer behaviour is central to my role as an account planner and about how I look at the world.

Being from an Irish household growing up in the North West of England, everything was alien. I felt that I was interloping observer who was eternally curious.

The same traits stand today, I just get paid for them. Consumer behaviour and its interactions with the environment and societal structures are fascinating to me.

The hive mind of Wikipedia defines it as

‘the study of individuals, groups, or organizations and all the activities associated with the purchase, use and disposal of goods and services.’

It is considered to consist of how the consumer’s emotions, attitudes and preferences affect buying behaviour. Consumer behaviour emerged in the 1940–1950s as a distinct sub-discipline of marketing, but has become an interdisciplinary social science that blends elements from psychology, sociology, social anthropology, anthropology, ethnography, marketing and economics (especially behavioural economics or nudge theory as its often known).

I tend to store a mix of third party insights and links to research papers here. If you were to read one thing on this blog about consumer behaviour, I would recommend this post I wrote on generations. This points out different ways that consumer behaviour can be misattributed, missed or misinterpreted.

Often the devil is in the context, which goes back to the wide ranging nature of this blog hinted at by the ‘renaissance’ in renaissance chambara. Back then I knew that I needed to have wide interests but hadn’t worked on defining the ‘why’ of having spread such a wide net in terms of subject matter.

  • 2022 in review

    News stories of 2022 in review

    January

    2022 kicked off with the start of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement. It eclipses the European Union – it covers nearly a third of the global population and about 30 per cent of its global gross domestic product. [i] It’s hard to overstate how important this agreement is to the world economy. 

    Russia’s intervention in Kazakhstan to quieten unrest triggered by a rise in the price of LPG (liquified petroleum gas) and general government dissatisfaction is seen at the time as a good thing on balance.[ii]

    The number of global COVID cases exceeds 300 million worldwide[iii], contrast this with the estimated 250 million infections experienced in China alone right before Christmas 2022.[iv]

    By the end of January, we had 10 billion vaccinations conducted.[v] But that didn’t stop anti-vaxxers, including celebrity tennis player Novak Djokovic who was deported from Australia due to not being vaccinated.[vi]

    In other medical developments, we also saw the first successful heart transplant from a pig to a human. The operation was carried out in the US. [vii] This represents a huge step forward in dealing with the shortage of available organs for transplantation. 

    February

    The winter Olympics were held in Beijing, China. The International Olympics Committee have found it harder to get countries to host both the summer and winter Olympic Games. Holding these events in authoritarian countries posed hard questions for sponsors and legal sanction including the Beijing Winter Olympics Sponsor Accountability Act bill submitted to the US Congress.[viii]

    No sooner had the Winter Olympics finished than Russia started its invasion of Ukraine, and the west made a remarkably cohesive response in terms of sanctions, this would be followed with military aid throughout the year.[ix] By the end of February,[x] Russia had indicated a willingness to use its nuclear forces. This was a remarkable turnaround from just seven weeks after Russia, as part of the United Natios Security Council affirmed that ‘a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.’[xi]

    March

    The global death toll due to COVID passes 6 million worldwide.[xii] In a potential resurgence of corporate Japan, Honda and Sony are partnering in creating sophisticated electric vehicles.[xiii] Equality may have taken a major step forward in the US, with young women in 22 major cities have a higher average salary than their male peers.[xiv] Part of this might be down to a decline in male participation in higher education and economic activity.[xv]

    April 

    Global food prices rise to their highest ever price according to the UN’s Food Price Index, which began in 1990. This adds to supply chain related inflation due to COVID and energy price rises.[xvi] [xvii]

    May 

    There was an outbreak of monkeypox first recorded in the UK[xviii], which sparked concern about a possible new global pandemic.[xix] A mix of demand for electric vehicles and continued supply chain problems meant that Volkswagen had sold out of electric vehicles.[xx]

    June 

    Amazon finally closes its Kindle e-book store in China. [xxi] Low economic growth combined with supply side inflation due to disrupted supply chains and the war in Ukraine causes concern about the short term and long term future of the UK economy.[xxii] Meanwhile perceptions of China across Europe reach a new nadir.[xxiii]

    July 

    Heatwaves pummelled Europe, killing 53,000 people through July and August.[xxiv]

    August

    September

    The UK was hit by a double whammy. Queen Elizabeth II died.[xxv] The queen had been a constant in the life of most Britons as the country had moved through imperial decline. Her death was notable for the sustained wall-to-wall media onslaught. Secondly, the 50-day career of prime minister Liz Truss shook up the UK economy due to her proposed government policies. [xxvi]

    October

    Footage is released that shows construction of linear city The Line is already well under way.[xxvii]

    November

    The FIFA World Cup was held in Qatar and managed to survive controversy which also engulfed sponsorships. FIFA managed to dodge many of the brickbats slug at the IOC. But both events raise questions for western brand sponsorship strategies moving forward.[xxviii]

    December

    Will 2022 be seen as the start of the fusion age? In February, the JET (Joint European Torus) facility in Oxford managed to produce more energy than had been created in a controlled fusion reaction. At 59 megajoules over 5 seconds, it was twice as large as the previous record set 25 years earlier.[xxix] But the ‘Wright Brothers’ moment for nuclear fusion may have occurred in December. The US government managed to achieve nuclear fusion with net energy gain.[xxx]

    2022 in review for this blog

    Site basics

    No review of 2022 would be complete without looking at you, the readership of this blog

    Audience 

    The internet has become a global phenomenon, but my audience numbers read like they could from the late 1990s. My readership is predominantly from the US, which surprised me a bit. 

    Top five countries that my audience comes from

    %Country
    33.2United States of America
    9.53Indonesia – this surprised me 
    7.41United Kingdom 
    3.95Japan 
    2.72Germany

    Most trafficked blog posts

    RankTitle
    1Metaverse discussion paper – or why the ‘open’ metaverse won’t be happening anytime soon. Web 3.0 doesn’t solve any of its problems and neither do 5G wireless networks. 
    2The Line – Saudi plans to build a high rise, high density linear city. 
    3Hino Trucks – one of my regular round-up posts, but it led with a celebration of the Hino Truck brand and how it took Irish roads by storm during my childhood
    4AI and Creativity – the results of an exploration and me and a colleague did into Midjourney and the likely impact it would have on creative agencies. 
    5The Gay Blood Collection – a project by Mother London to highlight and protest against a long-standing regulation that keeps gay blood donations restricted in comparison to other members of the population 
    6Moviedrome – probably one of my largest long form posts ever (excluding the Metaverse discussion paper) looking at the impact of a long running weekly film screening on BBC curated and presented by film director Alex Cox
    7The World of Visuals – was a trend presentation that provided Adobe’s perspective on areas like artificial intelliengence. 
    8StetWalk – a trend that has sprung up amongst book editors, where they talk a walk outside to clear their heads and be inspired by their surroundings. I was introduced to the concept by my friend Siobhan. 
    9Naked Power Politics – the invasion of Ukraine was a transgression of several norms and seems to be part of a movement to a more ugly world. 
    10Bong Bong Marcos – the scion to the Marcos political dynasty became a president in the mould of former president Duterte. 

    [i] Mullen, A. (1 January 2022) What is the RCEP, the world’s largest free trade that is under way? Hong Kong: South China Morning Post

    [ii] Auyezov, O. (5 January 2022) Kazakh president fails to quell protests, ex-Soviet states offer to help. United Kingdom: Reuters

    [iii] (7 January 2022) Global Coronavirus Cases Top 300 Million. United States: The New York Times.

    [iv] Liu, Q., Leng, C., Yu, S., McMorrow, R. (25 December 2022) China estimates 250m people have caught Covid in 20 days. United Kingdom: Financial Times

    [v] (28 January 2022) The world surpasses 10 billion vaccine doses administered, but gaps persist in how gets the shots. United States: The New York Times

    [vi] (16 January 2022) Novak Djokovic: Tennis star deported after losing Australia visa battle. United Kingdom: BBC News

    [vii] (10 January 2022) The University of Maryland School of Medicine Faculty Scientists and Clinicians Perform Historic Transplant of Porcine Heart into Adult Human with End-State Heart Disease. United States: University of Maryland Medical Center

    [viii] Waltz, M. (28 May 2021) H.R. 3645. United States: US Congress 

    [ix] (26 February 2022) Joint Statement on further restrictive economic measures. European Union: European Commission

    [x] (28 February 2022) Ukraine invasion: Putin puts Russia’s nuclear forces on ‘special alert’. United Kingdom: BBC News

    [xi] Ostroukh,A.  (4 January 2022) ‘No one can win a nuclear war’: Superpowers release rare joint statement”. Australia: The Sydney Morning Herald.

    [xii] McPhillips, D. (6 March 2022) Global Covid-19 deaths surpass 6 million. United States: CNN

    [xiii] Lewis, L., Slodkowski, A., Sugiura, E. (4 March 2022) Sony and Honda plan electric vehicle tie-up to take on Tesla. United Kingdom: Financial Times

    [xiv] Gregg, A. Bogage, J. (28 March 2022) Younger women now earn at least as much as or more than men in 22 metro areas. United States: The Washington Post

    [xv] Thompson, D. (14 September 2021) Colleges Have a Guy Problem. United States: The Atlantic

    [xvi] Ahmed, K. (8 April 2022) Global food prices rise to highest ever levels after Russian invasion. United Kingdom: The Guardian

    [xvii] Boffey, D. Oltermann, P., Davies, R. (27 April 2022) Russia accused of blackmail after gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria halted. United Kingdom: The Guardian

    [xviii] (16 May 2022) Monkeypox – United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Switzerland: World Health Organisation

    [xix] Fischer, R.S.B. (10 August 2022) The Monkeypox Epidemic Is Unusual: Here’s How I Know. United States: Medscape

    [xx] Miller, J. Vladkov, A. (4 May 2022) VW sells out of electric cars in Europe and US. United Kingdom: Financial Times

    [xxi] Olcott, E. (2 June 2022) Amazon to close China Kindle Store after losing out to domestic rivals. United Kingdom: Financial Times

    [xxii] Wolf, M. (26 June 2022) Grim times lie ahead for UK as inflation combines with low growth. United Kingdom: Financial Times

    [xxiii] Silver, L., Huang, C., Clancy, L. (29 June 2022) Negative Views of China Tied to Critical Views of Its Policies on Human Rights. United States: Pew Research Center

    [xxiv] Reuters staff (16 September 2022) EU saw 53,000 excess deaths in July amid record heatwave: report. Canada: Global NEWS

    [xxv] (8 September 2022) Queen Elizabeth II has died. United Kingdom: BBC

    [xxvi] (23 October 2022) Sunak warns of economic challenge as he prepares to become PM. United Kingdom: BBC News

    [xxvii] Ravenscroft, T. (19 October 2022) Drone footage reveals The Line megacity under construction in Saudi Arabia. United Kingdom: Dezeen

    [xxviii] (17 November 2022) In defence of Qatar’s hosting of the World Cup. United Kingdom: The Economist

    [xxix] Amos, J. (9 February 2022) Major breakthrough on nuclear fusion energy. United Kingdom: BBC News

    [xxx] Wilson, T. (11 December 2022) Fusion energy breakthrough by US scientist boosts clean power hopes. United Kingdom: Financial Times

  • ChatGPT + more things

    ChatGPT

    The buzz in part of our office about Midjourney has subsided to be replaced by buzz about ChatGPT, rather than Christmas. ChatGPT is is a software application used to conduct an on-line chat conversation via text. ChatGPT was considered to be a superior example of a chatbot down to the power of machine learning used in creating the content.

    I was curious about how good ChatGPT actually was given the following commentary from The Verge:

    The primary problem is that while the answers which ChatGPT produces have a high rate of being incorrect, they typically look like they might be good and the answers are very easy to produce

    Vincent, J. (2 December, 2022) AI-generated answers temporarily banned on coding Q&A site Stack Overflow | The Verge

    The Verge article was interesting. Most of the places where chatbots might be needed: providing customer services, regulated industries like finance would suffer from confident, but incorrect answers being provided to customers.

    Secondly, media outlets decided that ChatGPT was a potential Google challenger, with outlets like CNBC comparing the two and equity analysts at Morgan Stanley feeling the need to come out and say that ChatGPT was not likely to replace Google.

    ChatGPT
    Sample of conversation

    Google’s innovators dilemma

    What became quickly apparent Google’s narrative about being an innovator full stop, has been threatened by ChatGPT. Google as an incumbent is now stymied by Clayton Christiansen’s Innovator’s Dilemma. Google is no longer cool, its conversation related products are seen to be behind the curve and the company is seen as being too big to out-innovate itself easily.

    So what’s ChatGPT like to use?

    I have shared a picture of some of the better responses I had from the service. I started off with a certain amount of ambition. I asked it about who it felt might win the current war in Ukraine. I found that the training set of data used to power it was finished in 2021. This was obviously done to filter out the worst of the internet from the content, getting around rather than solving problems that previous chatbots have suffered from like Microsoft’s Tay project.

    Eventually I managed to get on to safer ground for ChatGPT. It answered questions about what an AI winter was, whether fuzzy logic is a form of artificial intelligence (it is), whether Baye’s Theorem was a form of AI (it isn’t per se, but it is employed to solve some AI problems there similar to the kind of uncertainty challenges fuzzy logic solves.

    ChatGPT said that AI (like Bayes Theorem) could be used to provide a solution to buffer bloat – which massively increases the latency on data networks.

    I found out quantum computers could make an optimised AI more power efficient and the business expert systems popularised in large companies during the 1980s and 1990s were analogous to modern day AI systems.

    It reminded me a lot of content I had read on Summly, the mobile news app that mashed up an AI service API with news sources to summarise articles. This start-up was bought by Yahoo! a decade ago.

    In this respect, I do wonder whether ChatGPT is truly the quantum leap forward that many seem to think, or is it merely a reminder of how well understood technology can be applied in different ways?

    China

    Volkswagen’s Skoda considers withdrawing from China – media report | Reuters – Czech carmaker Skoda Auto, part of Volkswagen, is considering withdrawing from China and will make a final decision next year. The re-orientation towards India is interesting

    How China aims to avoid the curse of increased longevity & ill health – Financial Times – Partner Content by Ping An Insurance – Ping An Insurance has a health management model or concierge service as they like to position it

    Learning from the Soviet Collapse – by Jordan Schneider – China’s Marxist Leninist version of Andy Grove’s book Only The Paranoid Survive – all of which implies at weakness at the heart of the CCP; its own members…

    Defending democracy in an era of state threats – GOV.UK 

    Consumer behaviour

    Gen Z: progressive, illiberal or both? 

    Culture

    Why we’re doing this – Flickr Foundation – interesting on the future of Flickr Commons and good to see George Oates involved

    Economics

    Can India build a military strong enough to deter China? | Financial Times – I think that this is down to the lead China has in manufacturing capability and innovation as much as anything else. There is a substantial risk that India could lose many of its northern provinces in theory. In theory being the operative phrase here. Ukraine has show what’s possible with people fighting for their homes. It makes more sense for India to think about assymmetric and grey zone tactics at scale to bleed China’s financial and human lifeblood. From hacking well in advance of a conflict, to militias trained and equipped for guerrilla actions allowing for attack in depth once China crosses the threshold.

    China boosts military aid to Africa as concerns over Russia grow – Nikkei Asia – China has kept its forces from direct engagement in crises in Africa as part of its noninterference policy, it has also taken an increasingly high profile in United Nations peacekeeping missions. It has sent more than 1,000 troops, police and specialists to oil-rich South Sudan, for example. “When Chinese interests were threatened by insurgencies in Nigeria, China issued a statement, as it still lacks the military commitment. This can, however, change in the future,” Ali said. Experts say China is more focused on economic and national security interests than on peacebuilding. Beijing prefers strategies centered on development that help to alleviate poverty and provide stable governance, but do not necessarily advance protection of individual rights and free markets. But this growth-first attitude may be counterproductive over the long term. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, China has a very close relationship with the government, but attacks in the resource-rich east of the country by a number of rebel groups pose threats to its mining interests. “Insurgencies happen as the product of social exclusion,” Nte said. “There must be a stable political climate to address economic degradation caused by the wrong policies.”

    UK economy rebounds by more than expected in October | Financial Times – the second largest contributor to growth in October was performance of the health sector in administration of vaccine boosters and flu shots, the biggest sector was construction. But construction has started to slow since then with sites halting work in November

    Globalization is Dead and No One is Listening – by Kevin Xu 

    How Putin’s technocrats saved the economy to fight a war they opposed | Financial Times – tough moral questions to be asked. However, Central Bank governor Nabiullina’s moral calculus reminds me a good deal of convicted German war criminal Albert Speer, in particular the “Speer Myth”: the perception of him as an apolitical technocrat responsible for revolutionising the German war machine. The close alliance with Iran should allow both countries to pool expertise in sanctions busting.

    Meanwhile air travel is going great guns according to airlines like Lufthansa who are bringing back their Airbus A380 jumbo jet airliners.

    Finance

    Microsoft to take 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group | Financial Times – interesting series of cloud computing deals happening that include an equity purchase

    Health

    How docs deal with tricky situations with patients or billing | Fierce Healthcare

    Gary Jones of MediMusic says his ‘greatest ambition’ is to see music prescribed on the NHS | BW Magazine 

    Hong Kong

    Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai’s sentence casts chill over relaunch, analysts say — Radio Free Asia – “If you can’t say anything anyway, then you might as well locate [your office] in mainland China,” Chow said. “Using Hong Kong as a jumping-off point to the mainland is a waste of money, because rents are much more expensive than in mainland China.” – there is also the tax aspect (expats pay much more tax in Mainland China) and a transferrable currency, but otherwise the point is pretty valid

    Hong Kong security chief accuses Google of ‘double standards’ for refusing to correct national anthem search results | South China Morning Post – Hong Kong upset that Google knows the national anthem of Hong Kong is ‘Glory to Hong Kong’ – I wonder how they will use the National Security Law in this fight?

    Ideas

    Techno-optimism for 2023 – by Noah Smith – Noahpinion 

    The great disruption has only just begun | Financial Times 

    A Vibe Shift Is Coming. Will Any of Us Survive It? – In the culture, sometimes things change, and a once-dominant social wavelength starts to feel dated. Monahan, who is 35, breaks down the three vibe shifts he has survived and observed: Hipster/Indie Music (ca. 2003–9), or peak Arcade Fire, Bloc Party, high-waisted Cheap Mondays, Williamsburg, bespoke-cocktail bars; Post-Internet/Techno Revival (ca. 2010–16), or the Blood Orange era, normcore, dressing like The Matrix, Kinfolk the club, not Kinfolk the magazine; and Hypebeast/Woke (ca. 2016–20), or Drake at his Drakest, the Nike SNKRS app, sneaker flipping, virtue signaling, Donald Trump, protests not brunch

    Innovation

    Tracking How the Event Camera Is Evolving – EE Times 

    IBM Reveals Its 433 Qubit Quantum Computer – EE Times 

    Innovative ASIC CPU Drives Record-Setting Server Performance – EE Times 

    The global microchip race: Europe’s bid to catch up | Financial Times 

    Robots set their sights on a new job: sewing blue jeans | Reuters – the economics of automation are very interesting. In markets with poor productivity i.e. the UK , people are replacing automation in warehouses and the car wash

    IBM partners with Japan’s Rapidus to make advanced chips as US recruits allies to its cause in China tech war | South China Morning Post – 2nm node process

    Canon prepares to ramp nano-imprint lithography | EE Times 

    Tracking How the Event Camera Is Evolving – EE Times 

    Ireland

    Do you recognise these iconic Irish Christmas ads? or the effect of nostalgia on Irish consumers perceptions of advertising campaigns

    Japan

    Japan scraps pacifist postwar defence strategy to counter China threat | Financial Times – this is much needed, but will be huge in terms of Japanese politics and how the country sees itself

    Legal

    China preps $143 billion chip support, goes to WTO | EE Times 

    Luxury

    5 Facts About Chanel Métiers d’Art Show in Dakar | Hypebae – apparently Chanel managed to amass an armada of Toyota Land Cruisers to put all this on.

    Luxury Watch Thefts of Rolex, Patek and Other Models Are on the Rise – Robb Report – which is why you have some UK watch collectors on YouTube talk about the ‘London watch check’ and rather than showing their timepiece have a bare wrist instead

    Luxury Daily: One-second wonder: Mr. Bags x Qeelin sells out immediately – I will never get how the HSN / QVC type format works so well in Chinese luxury sector

    You’ll own nothing (besides luxury goods) and be happy | Financial Times 

    Online

    Is Snapchat+ still being subscribed by users? / Digital Information World 

    Amazon’s heroic phase is over | Amazon Chronicles – My first theory is that capitalism doesn’t stop evolving. The evolution of the microprocessor, digital computing, the internet, the personal computer, the World Wide Web, and the tech giants that have emerged in their wake are all transforming capitalism as we experience it and the culture produced by it in ways we don’t even fully understand. These are the biggest companies in the world and the ones with the greatest impact on how we think, work, shop, and communicate. You can’t understand capitalism in the twenty-first century without understanding how technology is changing it. I think this theory is pretty uncontroversial. It’s certainly not new. My second theory is that the arc of capitalism traced by Marx and Lukács and others writing in their tradition can also be retraced on a smaller scale. Like those early modern bourgeoisie, big tech has moved from its initial chaotic and subterranean strivings, to a heroic universalist phase where it championed political and economic liberation. Now these companies are consolidating their dominance by reducing or eliminating their workforce, shifting away from consumer goods, and brokering compromises with state power.

    Taiwan considers extending TikTok ban to private sector — Radio Free Asia 

    U.S. lawmakers unveil bipartisan bid to ban China’s TikTok | Reuters – first Taiwan, now the US…

    The METAmorphosis of behavioural economics and fast data. | Human Digital 

    Security

    Recruited for Navy SEALs, many sailors wind up scraping paint | The Japan Times – is this generation snow flake, or is there something broken on SEAL unit culture? What’s not talked about in the article is unit fit and mental resilience

    Ex-U.S. pilot held in Australia faces U.S. charges over export of defence services to China | Reuters 

    Dutch chip equipment maker ASML’s CEO questions U.S. export rules on China -newspaper | Reuters 

    Fall of the house of Sergei Leontiev | Financial Times 

    This won’t help consumers trust in politicians, but the strong legal reaction might

    Web of no web

    ChinAI #206: China’s Virtual Reality Push Gets Real 

  • Ian Hislop + more stuff

    Ian Hislop on the 2022 in UK politics

    Ian Hislop is well known in the UK as being the editor of Private Eye and managing to bring the snark of the paper into real life. In this interview with the politics channel of Joe, he seems flummoxed by the state of politics in the UK over the past year or so.

    In this video, Ian Hislop talks about the year with clear sense of exasperation. The laughs are for relief rather than humour. The commentary by Ian Hislop on collective short term memory is very interesting.

    Tiananmen Square killings

    CNN put together an interesting collection of footage around the Tianamen Square protests and put some context around what was happening in China when the protests happened. CNN seemed to have done a better job than most western media at the time in its coverage of the protests. If anything the footage seems even more harrowing now than the bit I remember from the time.

    CNN

    Darlie Malaysia travel promotion

    Back when I worked on Colgate brands in Asia, Darlie was the ‘entry level’ brand. As such its one of the best selling toothpaste brands in Asia and you can see it in any pharmacy or supermarket you walk into in China, Hong Kong and across Southeast Asia. It’s actually an old brand founded in the 1930s in Shanghai that latched on to the popularity of Al Johnson to promote the teeth whitening effect of their toothpaste.

    The brand seems to have changed to Darlie around about 1990.

    Colgate Palmolive

    Moving forward three decades Darlie is still wrestling with its heritage in the eyes of western stakeholders important to Colgate Palmolive. Darlie is a best selling brand.

    In Malaysia it seems to have got involved in a package promotion with local travel brand Klook to provide travel vouchers and hotel discounts as Malaysia kick started its domestic tourism and hospitality industries. Much of the promotion revolves around the use of influencers (to appeal to the three main ethnic groups in Malaysia – Chinese, South Asians and Malays).

    I am not a huge fan of their books generally, but if the Darlie adverts spark your interest, then the Lonely Planet travel guide is your best option for the two main areas to see: Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Georgetown on Penang island.

    The Reflex

    I have been listening to this mix a few times this week.

    Zone Energy

    Zone Energy drinks targeted students sitting exams with adverts on the Tokyo subway that only. they could see using the red plastic sheet lens that is used to decode answers in their work books.

    Zone Energy drink out of home advertising

  • New Power by Heimans & Timms

    New Power by Jeremy Heimans and Henry Timms was recommended to me by a friend of mine who works with a number of campaigning organisations. It took four years after it was published for me to take it down from the shelf and get stuck in.

    New Power

    Since then, we have had the Hong Kong protests, January 6 disturbances in the US Capitol building where both of their legislative houses operate from. We’ve also had movements around cryptocurrency and the infamous OneCoin scam.

    The book promises to reveal:

    How Power Works in Our Hyperconnected World – and How to Make It Work for You

    Front cover of New Power by Jeremy Heimans and Henry Timms

    Jeremy Heimans

    Heimans is an ex-McKinsey consultant who now runs a social impact agency called Purpose. So one could think that New Power is basically part of Heiman’s marketing strategy. Make of that what you will.

    Henry Timms

    Timms heads up the Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts in New York and has been heavily involved in promoting philanthropic donations.

    Old Power and New Power

    Heimans and Timms provide a model for what they think old power is. A top down power structure, think everything from mainstream advertising, government responses to the COVID-19 epidemic, authoritarian regimes like China’s crushing of dissent or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    By comparison, new power is participatory in nature and more of a peer to peer relationship. Examples include memes, crypto bros, the leaderless movement that fuelled the 2019 Hong Kong protests, support for populism and ISIS. ISIS recruitment is actually used as an example in the book.

    How power works in our hyperconnected world

    Heimans and Timms provide an analysis on the general thinking behind how campaigning works in a way that would be most familiar to anyone who has run a social media marketing campaign. I would describe it as a primer for typical corporate management types.

    How to make it work for you

    I personally think that this is where the book falls down. New Power isn’t replicable in the same way that a business process rengineering exercise might be. Sometimes these things take off, sometimes they don’t. They talk about some of the factors in the book, but movements often need a catalysing event like the recent apartment fire in Urumqi, Xinjiang that sparked anti-zero COVID lockdown protests in China.

    You can try and create a catalysing event, but too often it’s astro-turfing that no one ever sees, particularly if you are relying on a dominant platform algorithm. Your new power is actually reliant on old power held by the likes of Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk. Instead these platforms have been successfully mastered by authoritarian regimes including the Chinese government who manage to demonetise and have content taken down on western platforms.

    Secondly, the authors try to claim showing a bit of moxie is new power. The example they give is a junior employee speaking to a senior executive that they manage to meet by chance.

    Finally, the book lacks the intellectual rigour and scientific method of Mark Ritson or Byron Sharp’s work, instead relying anecdotal evidence, similar to Malcolm Gladwell’s body of work or Paul Polman’s  Net Positive.

    So, should you buy this book?

    If you like TED talks model of learning a little bit about a lot of things and are reading for your own personal interest or to get a high level understanding of campaigning organisations might work, buy New Power. If you are thinking about changing your business into a more purposeful organisation, read this first instead (and its free).

    You you can find out more about New Power here, find the rest of my book reviews here, and the books that I find most useful here.

  • Chinese COVID protests

    Chinese COVID protests have been held in major cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and Chengdu. Why did the Chinese COVID protests happened and what does it mean?

    SARS painting
    One panel of a SARS triptych that I photographed back in 2010 at a Chinese Communist Party exhibition at the Guan Shanyue Art Museum in Shenzhen, China.

    TL;DR (too long, didn’t read)

    The Chinese COVID protests aren’t comparable to events like the 1989 protests or Hong Kong in 2019.

    The Third Hong Kong’s anti-extradition law protest
    The Third Hong Kong’s anti-extradition law protest
    第三次反送中遊行

    Secondly, there are clear parallels for behaviours in other markets. However, when viewed through the lens of Chinese communist party, the restlessness of their population will further feel their paranoia. Part of this paranoia will be down them knowing that they the current administration has let down the population in a long-standing promise on epidemics, initially made by Mao Zedong.

    Xi Jinping

    This betrayal of the people may be emblematic of deep-rooted flaws in the senior party leadership team. To paraphrase Sir James Porter; a party rots from the head down.

    Why did it happen?

    After a shaky start, that mirrored the early Chinese government response to SARS[i]. China managed its first wave COVID-19 experience successfully using lockdowns to control the spread of the virus. It pursued what was called a Zero COVID policy. They managed to keep the virus largely contained in Wuhan and the local province of Hubei. By the summer the government held it largely under control.[ii]

    There was Chinese government censorship internally[iii] and misinformation[iv] externally[v]. By the summer of 2020, COVID was largely under control within China. By August 2020, Wuhan was able to host a giant pool party of unmasked attendees dancing along to a DJ playing EDM, like it was Ibiza on the Yangtze.

    China managed to hold COVID down through strict lockdowns through 2021. But by the spring of 2022, there was an infection peak again and further lockdowns have ensued. 

    Over time, China has attempted to be more granular in its approach to lockdowns over time and called this ‘dynamic zero COVID’. However, lockdowns themselves have implicit risks[vi], for instance research found that a rise in depression and anxiety could see a rise of premature death of 134%[vii]. Research has shown that these factors are particularly acute in medical staff involved in treating COVID-19[viii]. Chinese companies and the government tried to address mental health through digital channels, these responses outstripped existing regulations[ix].

    The pressure of COVID lockdowns together with mistakes seems to have produced an environment for the protests to grow. 

    The BBC coverage paraphrased some of the protestors that they interviewed talking about feeling angry, sad, helpless – in a state of purgatory[x]. One can understand the sense of frustration portrayed and the likelihood of how this can lead to protest in those desperate enough.

    Vaccinations with Chinese socialist characteristics

    As of July 2022, China had apparently given out over 3 billion vaccines, or enough to have vaccinated the population at least twice and then some[xi]. But the vaccination rate amongst the elderly was significantly lower than other comparable countries by 2022[xii]. This has meant that China is worried about a massive amount of COVID fatalities occurring, if it altered course. 

    The lower vaccination rates were attributed to a number of factors including misinformation on social media influencing elderly Chinese to self-quarantine instead. Secondly, immune-compromised people in China were sometimes advised by doctors to not take the vaccine. And the Chinese government chose to vaccinate younger working age people first, as they were more likely to come in contact with the virus[xiii].

    What happened to drive the Chinese COVID protests?

    A series of insights into the world outside China from Xi Jinping at the G20[xiv] to the World Cup Finals in Qatar showed life going on without face masks[xv]. So Chinese COVID protestors would have a good idea that COVID outside China is much less restrictive in nature. This is the reverse of the reaction that happened during the Wuhan pool party, which fuelled debate and more than a bit of envy in some westerners. 

    Inciting incidents

    Then a succession of horrific mistakes by the Chinese government and big business fuelled consumer frustration and anger in the months leading up to the protest: 

    • A bus transporting people to a quarantine facility in Guizhou province killed 27 people and injured another 20[xvi].
    • Foxconn delayed bonus payments[xvii] to workers locked down on their factory and provided insufficient food for the quarantined workers[xviii]
    • An apartment block fire in Urumqi, Xinjiang caught fire[xix]. The fire was covered on state television. The ten deaths that occurred were blamed by protestors on COVID lockdown conditions. I want to add that this doesn’t mean that Han Chinese have put aside long-standing prejudice and suddenly feel brotherly solidarity with Uighur citizen[xx]; but they could see the same thing happening to themselves if they got caught in a lockdown. This distinction is important as Han-Uighur solidarity would represent many bigger problems for the Chinese government

    The common thread amongst all the inciting events is that Chinese protestors could easily see themselves in the place of victims of these disasters. You can combine this with frustration and a perfect storm for the Chinese COVID protests in major cities. Western coverage has given some weight to those voices who shouted for Xi Jinping to resign[xxi], this doesn’t signify a colour revolution in motion. Instead, these are likely more a measure of frustration with COVID restrictions. But they could be personally and politically embarrassing for Xi Jinping and reinforce existing internal Chinese communist party fears. 

    Government response to Chinese COVID protests

    The communist party looked to censor online channels of the protests[xxii], but netizens kept reposting the content. Since China has a real ID policy for mobile phone numbers and digital accounts these posters knew the risk of being traced by the security apparatus. 

    Government influenced media and online personalities promoted a narrative that the protests had been instigated by external influence. This immediate leap to speculate on foreign influence is in keeping with Xi Jinping’s vision of constant vigilance and paranoia on internal national security. 

    The allegations of foreign influence were used to mobilise patriots[xxiii] to try and intimidate foreign journalists during previous crisis, but failed to achieve the same goal this time. 

    This narrative was anticipated and ridiculed by the protagonists in the Chinese COVID protests[xxiv].  

    Which foreign forces do you talk about? Karl Marx or Friedrick Engels?

    Attributed to a protestor in Beijing

    A heavy police presence managed to restrict protestors gathering on subsequent evenings[xxv]. University students have been sent home early from the end of the semester, to prevent further student activism on campus[xxvi].  Chinese authorities immediately set out to track down those who participated in, or supported the protests.

    But in Guangzhou, the heavier police presence resulted in a violent clash with protestors. The scene has a ridiculous aspect to it with riot police wearing Tyvek bunny suits to protect themselves against COVID infection[xxvii].

    Quiet moves

    Some cities in China like Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have started to ease off from their COVID testing regime in the face of Chinese COVID protests; yet the infection numbers are reaching record rates in the country[xxviii].

    China is justifying this, by claiming that Omicron infections were less likely to result in death. Scientific experts disagree[xxix] and point to Hong Kong’s COVID-19 wave during the spring[xxx] as an indicator of what we’re likely to expect in China. 

    What’s less apparent is how China will improve vaccination rates. China’s inability to force older citizens to vaccinate belies the countries authoritarian nature. 

    This inability to vaccinate is particularly curious, as it chips away at the Chinese communist party’s legitimacy. It is over 64 years since the founder of modern China Mao Zedong wrote ‘Farewell to the God of Plagues’[xxxi], yet the party under Xi Jinping is still struggling to vanquish COVID-19 after almost three years. 

    While western media speculates about the reasons why China won’t use more effective foreign vaccines[xxxii], I find the inability to vaccinate the elderly a bigger mystery. 

    China engaged in foreign interference, by attempting to spam foreign social media platforms to try and crowd out and conceal genuine posts covering the Chinese COVID protests[xxxiii].

    What can we learn from other countries experiences with regards the Chinese COVID protests?

    China managed to avoid the number of deaths that occurred in other countries so far as we know through lockdowns, quarantine and controlled access to public spaces based on regular testing. 

    But it isn’t the only country to experience a youth-based resistance to COVID lockdown style restrictions. Kings College London conducted research throughout the COVID pandemic. 

    As locked down was eased they found that about 24 percent of the population were likely to think that the restrictions should be lifted faster and saw the risks of COVID-19 as being lower than the rest of the population[xxxiv]. During lockdown King’s College London research identified a group called ‘the resisting’[xxxv].

    The resisting were about 9 percent of the population. They skewed young and male with a mean age of 29. They were outliers in terms of belief in rumours and have a high usage on social media usage.

    A hypothetical Chinese technocrat looking for comfort in these numbers would see a silent majority that is compliant or supportive of COVID prevention measures and that the Chinese COVID protests were done by a young minority. This would also mirror the experience during the 2002 – 2003 SARS outbreak, when people in Zhejiang province protested over the inability of the Chinese government to control the epidemic[xxxvi].

    30 Years Ago Today
    Toronto editions of Hong Kong’s Sing Tao Daily and Taiwan’s World Journal from June 5-7, 1989. Both Hong Kong and Taiwan enjoyed Western-style freedom including freedom of the press, which explains why such newspaper records exist. In China, the event of June 4 1989 is not mentioned anywhere. 
     
    The headlines read:
     
    “Bodies pile up in Beijing Massacre. A Hudred Thousand Dead or Wounded” ***
     
    “Fierce fighting continues in Beijing’s east side, troops leave Tiananmen Square”
     
    “U.S., Soviet Union, other countries evacuate their citizens from Beijing”
     
    *** Because of the news blockade and dangerous conditions in Beijing, the very first reports initially said as many as 100,000 were killed or wounded, this was later corrected to as many as 20,000. The most credible estimates suggest between 2,000 and 8,000 casualties.

    They would be slightly more alarmed by the calls for Xi Jinping to stand down, and the fact that protestors weren’t just from the middle-class student body but also involved worker protests as well[xxxvii]. However, one could argue that this is a coincidence rather than the cross-class unity[xxxviii]  that underpinned a succession of protests across China in 1989[xxxix] culminating in the June 4 massacre. 

    [i] Huang, Y. (2004) “The SARS Epidemic and its Aftermath in China: a Political Perspective“. Institute of Medicine Forum on Microbial Threats, National Academies Press. United States

    [ii] Burki, T. (8 October 2020). “China’s successful control of COVID-19”. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. United Kingdom

    [iii] Zhong, R. (27 January 2020). “As Virus Spreads, Anger Floods Chinese Social Media”. The New York Times. United States

    [iv] “China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says”. Bloomberg. United States

    [v] Cook, S. “Welcome to the New Era of Chinese Government Disinformation”. thediplomat.com. United States

    [vi] Johnson, CY. Cadell, C. Achenbach, J. (1 December 2022) “How China’s vaccine strategy stoked its looming ‘zero covid’ crisis“. The Washington Post. United States

    [vii] MIHR Maudsley BRC (27 April 2020) “Depression and anxiety increase premature death by up to 134%”. King’s College London. United Kingdom

    [viii] (21 April 2020). “Survey of UK nurses and midwives’ highlights their concerns about health, training and workload during COVID-19“. King’s College London. United Kingdom

    [ix] Lau China Institute (28 July 2021) “China’s Digital Mental Health Services Outpacing Regulation“. King’s College London. United Kingdom

    [x] Mao, F. (2 December 2022) “China protests: The young people powering the demonstrations“. BBC. United Kingdom

    [xi] (Last updated 15 July 2022). “Mainland China”. Reuters COVID-19 tracker. United Kingdom

    [xii] “Share of the elderly population vaccinated against COVID-19 in China as of March 17, 2022 by age group”. Statista.com

    [xiii] Xing, D. (18 March 2022) “Why are many Chinese elderly unvaccinated against COVID-19 when they’re a priority group in countries such as Australia?”. ABC News. Australia

    [xiv] Baptista, E. Polard, MQ. (17 November 2022) “Analysis: Unmasked and in charge, China’s Xi puts personal diplomacy back in play”. Reuters. United Kingdom

    [xv] Pollard, MQ. (24 November 2022) “For Chinese soccer fans, World Cup highlights COVID lockdown blues“. Reuters. United Kingdom

    [xvi] Farrer, M. (19 September 2022) “Anger in China after 27 people killed in Covid quarantine bush crash“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xvii] (24 November 2022) “Foxconn Apologizes for Pay Dispute at China Factory“. Voice of America. United States

    [xviii] Goh, B. Lee, Y. (24 November 2022) “Huge Foxconn iPhone plant in China rocked by fresh worker unrest“ Reuters. United Kingdom

    [xix] (26 November 2022) “Apartment fire in China’s Xinjiang region kills 10“. Reuters. United Kingdom

    [xx] Fallows, J. (13 July 2009) “On Uighurs, Han, and general racial attitudes in China“. The Atlantic. United States

    [xxi] (1 December 2022) “What 1989 can teach us about the recent protests in China“. The Economist. United Kingdom

    [xxii] (29 November 2022) “China Uses Police, Censors, Covid Easing to Stem Protests“. Bloomberg. United States

    [xxiii] Davidson, H. (26 July 2021) “Foreign journalists harassed in China over floods coverage“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xxiv] Lam, O. (1 December 2022) “China’s foreign interference narrative fails to demonize the nationwide anti-zero COVID protests”. Stichting Global Voices. The Netherlands

    [xxv] Davidson, H. Yu, V. (28 November 2022) “Chinese police out in force in attempt to deter Covid lockdown protests“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xxvi] (29 November 2022) “Chinese universities send students home in an effort to prevent more protests“ NPR Online. United States

    [xxvii] (30 November 2022) “COVID protests escalate in Guangzhou as China lockdown anger boils“. EURACTIV Media Network. Belgium

    [xxviii] (3 December 2022) “China continues lifting Covid restrictions despite near-record case numbers“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xxix] Graham-Harrison, E. (4 December 2022) “Fears of deadly infection surge as China abandons zero-Covid policy“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xxx] Hutton, M. (11 March 2022) “‘It is like we are being left to die’: Hong Kog tackles deadliest Covid wave“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xxxi] Cooper, A. Galambos, I. (28 October 2018) p: 345 – 375 “The Other Greek: An Introduction to Chinese and Japanese Characters, Their History and Influence“. BRILL. The Netherlands

    [xxxii] Martina, M. Brunnstrom, D. (4 December 2022) “China’s Xi unwilling to accept western vaccines, U.S. official says“. Reuters. United Kingdom

    [xxxiii] Milmo, D. (4 December 2022) “China accused of flooding social media with spam to crowd out protest news“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xxxiv] The Policy Institute (7 June 2020) “The UK is dividing as the lockdown is eased”. King’s College London. United Kingdom

    [xxxv] Duffy, B, Allington, D. (27 April 2020) “The Accepting, the Suffering and the Resisting: the different reactions to life under lockdown“. King’s College London. United Kingdom

    [xxxvi] Watts, J. (6 May 2003) “SARS sparks Chinese riots“. The Guardian. United Kingdom

    [xxxvii] Kerrigan, A. (30 November 2022) “Five Factors to Watch as the Chinese Communist Party Faces Protests“. RAND Corporation. United States

    [xxxviii] Chow, T. (4 June 2020) “The Forgotten Workers of Tiananmen Square“. The Nation. United States

    [xxxix] Kuo, L. (2 June 2022) “China’s other Tiananmens: 30 years on“. The Guardian. United States