Economics or the dismal science was something I felt that I needed to include as it provides the context for business and consumption.
Prior to the 20th century, economics was the pursuit of gentleman scholars. The foundation of it is considered to be Adam Smith when he published is work An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith outlined one of the core tenets of classical economics: each individual is driven by self-interest and can exert only a negligible influence on prices. And it was the start of assumptions that economists model around that don’t mirror real life all the time.
What really is a rational decision maker? Do consumers always make rational decisions? Do they make decisions that maximise their economic benefit?
The problem is that they might do actions that are rational to them:
Reducing choice when they are overwhelmed
Looking for a little luxury to comfort them over time. Which was the sales of Cadbury chocolate and Revlon lipstick were known to rise in a recession
Luxury goods in general make little sense from a ration decision point of view until you realise the value of what they signal
Having a smartphone yet buying watches. Japanese consumers were known to still buy watches to show that they care about the time to employers when they could easily check their smartphone screen
All of which makes the subject area of high interest to me as a marketer. It also explains the amount of focus now being done by economists on the behavioural aspect of things.
Netflix are doubling down on The Witcher franchise with their Witcher: Nightmare of The Wolf anime. The approach is very similar to the approach that Netflix took with Altered Carbon. Looking at how well that anime turned out, I have high hopes that Nightmare of the Wolf will live up to the trailer that Netflix has dropped.
The Witcher: Nightmare of The Wolf
OpenAI Codex demo
OpenAI demo-ed the use of AI to code from normal human language a web interface design. It’s a smaller move forward than you would think it is, but it has programmers worried. Secondly, its hard enough to work out what something does if it is coded by a human who doesn’t document as it goes. A machine learning based coder represents an even greater level of opaqueness, which poses challenges for when code would need to be updated. You can learn more about OpenAI Codex here.
Mercedes Benz 300SL
The 1950s saw Germany rebuilding after the war and its companies coming back after the war. Before the space race, there was the jet age and there was motor racing. Mercedes Benz looked to make a statement about its position in the motor industry and the way to do that was through motor racing. Stirling Moss driving a Mercedes 300SLR put the company back on the map. Two years later Mercedes released a two door version of Moss’ car to the public called the 300SL. It was light, expensive, exciting and had jet age vibes with its aerodynamic styling and gull wing doors. Something that still looked futuristic almost 30 years later on the DeLorean.
But the 300SL could also kill the unwary driver due to its rear swing axles. The car could go into sudden oversteer mid-corner if you stabbed the brakes or take the foot off the throttle in the bend. I know this, not because I had driven one, but because I was an avid reader of Car magazine from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s.
Car magazine was in a golden age, when motor journalism was as much literature as product information. Journalists wrote up to the intellect that they wanted their readers to have rather than writing to a lowest common denominator. Something that I have tried to do with this blog over time, but not nearly as well. Back to the killer handling: and the expensive coupe.
Mercedes replaced the gull wing coupe with a roadster body shape and took the opportunity to change the handling.
Tyler Hoover of Hoovies Garage had a chance to drive one of the roaders.
Tyler Cowen interview
I have been following Tyler Cowen’s economics blog Marginal Revolution for years and posted links to it here. Ashish Kulkarni interviewed Cowen about some of his blog posts, the philosophy of economics and the challenges facing universities and their students. Cowen’s day job is a professor at George Mason University in Washington DC.
Fake reviews on products including Amazon Prime items (image via quote catalog
Shenzhen to support Amazon merchants | Trivium China – 50,000 merchants were banned from Amazon for astroturfing false reviews. The ban was worth up to 100 billion yuan in sales to these merchants. Half of the merchants affected are based in Shenzhen. Now the Chinese government is looking at what it can do to help the merchants practicing false reviews. Yet it wouldn’t tolerate false reviews if it was exposed in in the domestic market. One of the options being looked at is a platform to rival Amazon Marketplace, that would allow fake reviews
Study: Companies Aren’t Living Up To Chinese Consumers’ Expectations – Three in four (75%) informed Chinese consumers (defined as consumers interested or involved in one of 20 industries studied in the research) said CEOs should speak up on issues that “may not have a significant impact on the business but have a significant impact on society,” with particular focus on diversity and diverse representation within a workforce and its leadership. Yet just 35% of respondents in China feel companies in China can do more to make the workplace better. Similarly, 80% agree that CEOs should have a voice on the environmental policy debate, and three quarters (75%) say business leaders should have a role shaping health policy, the research found. Respondents ranked value and innovation as the top two drivers of brand perceptions in China. Only 35% of companies, however, are meeting expectations in those areas – the key term is ‘informed consumers’, I am sure that the Chinese government might not view things in quite the same way
The Hong Kong National Security Law: The Shifted Grundnorm of Hong Kong’s Legal Order and Its Implications by Han Zhu :: SSRN – the application of mainland laws in Hong Kong, the interpretation of the NSL, cross-border criminal jurisdiction, national security institutional infrastructure, and the legal language. To some extent, the enactment of the NSL is like a silent constitutional reform that has reshaped, and will continue to reshape, a wide range of aspects of Hong Kong law as well as the Basic Law. Due to the dualistic nature of the NSL as a national law which applies to both the mainland and Hong Kong, it has also expanded and deepened the interaction and conflict between legal systems in the two regions, highlighting the inherent tension of maintaining the unity of a heterogeneous legal order under one country, two systems
Influencers want to be paid more than ever. Blame the pandemic | Marketing | Campaign Asia – no one is asking the question in this article, are influencers overpriced, or even worth it compared to other “Industry can also factor in, with some influencer niches starting at a higher price point than others,” says Heather Rottner, director of social media at Coyne PR. For instance, she says the firm generally sees higher rates in high-end fashion and beauty, food and DIY. While there is no shortage of influencers looking for brand partnerships in these categories, “many influencers pride themselves on being selective and authentic which means they don’t jump on every partnership offer they receive or use just any product.”
Media
‘Spreading like a virus’: inside the EU’s struggle to debunk Covid lies | World news | The Guardian – Until the pandemic, there was no monitoring of fake stories originating from within EU countries or linked to countries other than Russia. While China Global Television Network (CGTN), an English-language cable news channel controlled by the Chinese Communist party, is considering a Brussels expansion StratCom until recently had just two people working on Chinese disinformation. Several former EU analysts said multiple state-backed disinformation campaigns, not just Russian, had taken advantage of Covid and Richter believed the EU’s limited focus on Russia “affected the legitimacy of the project.”
Security
The threat of a “cyber Pearl Harbor” is a red herring — Quartz – the damage of cyberattacks comes from a series of piecemeal hacks that are often hidden from public view and don’t always lead to immediate, tangible harm. The actual threat looks less like a barrage of bombs and more like a spy slipping a gloved hand into a filing cabinet or a mobster strolling into a shop to collect a “protection” payment
Who is being monitored? Tutanota – interesting data points, I would imagine that other western countries would have a similar split in use of monitoring
Huawei Accused in Suit of Installing Data ‘Back Door’ in Pakistan Project – WSJ – Another day, another dodgy security story involving Huawei – BES, says in a lawsuit filed Wednesday in California district court that Huawei required it to set up a system in China that gives Huawei access to sensitive information about citizens and government officials from a safe-cities surveillance project in Pakistan’s second-largest city of Lahore. Muhammad Kamran Khan, chief operating officer of the Punjab Safe Cities Authority, which oversees the Lahore project, said the authority has begun looking into BES’s allegations.
Haidt is a social psychologist by training and currently serves as professor of ethical leadership at New York University Stern School of Business. I heard an interview with Haidt on the the dark psychology of social networks and this book came up which was the key reason why I bought it.
https://flic.kr/p/2mf52T7
Greg Lukianoff
Lukianoff is a lawyer by training and president of Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), a US based group that free speech rights on college campuses. If it was Lukianoff on his own I would likely dismiss this book as partisan.
Premise of The Coddling of the American Minds
In The Coddling of the American Mind Haidt and Lukianoff discuss factors that are affecting the resilience of young people emerging from colleges in the US.
They suggest a number of factors for the increasing intolerance and threats to American life from the left and the right.
Intimidation and violence on campus – the book highlights examples on both the left and right of the political spectrum. Violence by left wing protestors at Berkeley was particularly disturbing due to the lack of action by law enforcement
Witch hunts against academics
Self reinforcing cycle of political polarisation
Paranoid parenting compared to the latch-key parenting that older people would have been used to growing up
The decline of outdoor play
Safetyism – the move of safety culture from improving physical safety promoted by the likes of Ralph Nader (safer workplaces, no lead paint on toys etc) to encompass mental and emotional safety as a priority
The quest for justice. The complexity of how you define justice is important
Haidt and Lukianoff are of the opinion that you need to prepare people for life and to be resilient. That this approach doesn’t detract from the desire to change the world seems to be ignored by advocates of the status quo.
How the book has been received?
The Financial Times generally praised the book and it ended up on the New York Times bestsellers list.
The book was perceived as an attack on progressive liberal values by some reviewers, whereas I think it wasn’t attack on those values, but the means by which they are being pursued. It confronts the hard truth that there is intolerance at both ends of the political spectrum and a lack of dialogue.
Michael Malone was famous to me as a writer on the San Jose Mercury News online site. Michael Malone had been a long time writer on the paper and chronicled all the happenings in Silicon Valley. Michael Malone is now the co-host of The Silicon Insider podcast. In the past he has written numerous books covering different parts of the history of Silicon Valley. So he has a unique perspective on the place and the technology sector.
Michael Malone was interviewed by NBC reporter Scott Budman on behalf of the Computer History Museum based in Silicon Valley.
Dune trailer
Denis Villenueve is the director that Hollywood seems to trust with difficult to tell films like the Blade Runner sequel. He is also the director who is likely to get closest Alejandro Jodorowsky’s attempt to film Dune in the mid-1970s. Green screen and digital cinema offer Villenueve tools that Jodorowsky could only have dreamed of four decades earlier.
Junk sleep
US speciality retailer Mattress Firm is doing a couple of new things with its adverts featuring Lev Schreiber. First of all was the concept in the creative of ‘junk sleep’ that reminded me of J Walter Thompson’s early work for Odorono, an early anti-perspirant that invented the concept of ‘body odor’ from a marketing perspective. People had always been smelly, but it was JWT that broached the subject in the adverts.
https://youtu.be/WudcydXGWLI
Junk sleep feels like a similar type of concept. As a strategist, I like the concept. The second aspect is the trippy nature of the ads which captures the feeling of sleep deprivation really well.
Apple watch
Apple put together a fun ad for health tracking on the Apple Watch. It gets over many of the activities that the Apple Watch can track.
https://youtu.be/RkRQ_aykXw8
It reminded me (unintentionally) of The Court of King Caractacus, made famous by Australian entertainer Rolf Harris. Harris had a five decade career in show business that ended in ignominy when he was convicted for 12 indecent assaults on against four girls.
Emirates and Qatar Airways
COVID-19 disrupted the airline industry since people weren’t flying. The asymmetry of opening up seems to be hammering the Middle East airline ‘super hub’ model according to this video by Sam Chui. Chui posits that super hubs offer the opportunity for a super spreading event and there is likely to be an uptake in customers wanting to fly direct in the immediate aftermath of COVID-19.
If this is true, then there will be a knock on effect for duty free retailing and luxury sales as well.
Taiwanese technology industry publication DigiTimes has some some great ‘state of the industry’ analysis pieces. They have placed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. aka TSMC at the centre of this.
TSMC dossier (6): Possible ways to defeat the world’s top foundry house – TSMC’s concern is not getting surpassed in process technology or losing key customers but being overtaken by someone figuring out how to combine quantum technology and IC design. In-memory computing becoming a reality might be another scenario where TSMC could lose its competitive edge. However, according to Yu-Chung Lin, a DIGITIMES consultant devoted to the study of quantum technology application trends for years, large-scale commercialization of quantum technology is unlikely to happen before 2025. In-memory computing comes with high costs. If Samsung with leading-edge memory technologies really makes a breakthrough, TSMC will have to brace for challenges
Hong Kong’s national security trial debates Malcolm X’s legacy — Quartz – Leung argued that forceful and peaceful resistance can play complementary roles in a social movement, invoking Martin Luther King and Malcolm X as representing the two different styles of resistance in the US civil rights movement. In that 2016 interview, Leung also advocated for protesters to use a level of force that’s equal to that of the police. It’s an idea that evokes another line in Malcolm X’s “The Ballot or the Bullet” speech: “I’m non-violent with those who are non-violent with me.” – so the Hong Kong government is not only oppressing its own people but suggesting that African Americans should have been jailed as national security risks?
Luxury is culture now. Here’s how | Vogue Business – Vetements has teased a rebrand as a platform for young talent. Gucci spotlighted 15 emerging brands including Collina Strada and Bianca Saunders at November’s GucciFest film festival. Saint Laurent recently teamed up with Bang & Olufsen, Baccarat and JL Coquet on a lifestyle product series. Luxury brands no longer sell just their brand. In a new era of consumer expectation for shared values, brands are curating platforms to function as tastemakers to extend their own brand halo into the wider cultural world
Till Jagla adidas Collab King Exclusive Interview: Why He Left – “Now Energy is a new hype creation unit that really puts storytelling at the heart of everything we do,” says Jagla. “It was literally starting a brand within a brand. It was all the bad and ugly of the startup brands.”
GB News in crisis as exec quits and presenter is pulled for ‘taking the knee’ | The Guardian – GB News – set up on the basis that free and open debate is no longer possible in the mainstream media due to an all-pervasive “cancel culture”, was overwhelmed with complaints that after only a few weeks on air it had gone “woke” and its content was not sufficiently rightwing.
Pluralistic: 15 Jul 2021 – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow – interesting thread on how Facebook has disbursed its Crowdtangle analytics team. The reality is that social monitoring tools have been going dark for years. Most of them disproportionately rely on Twitter. Twitter has an outsized importance for its audience size due to it being favoured by journalists. Doctorow’s post however looks specifically at these Facebook moves
Philippines calls claim China influenced 2016 election to favour Duterte ‘nonsense’ | South China Morning Post – Former foreign secretary Albert del Rosario made the claim at a forum on Monday, citing a ‘most reliable international entity’. He said senior Chinese officials were ‘bragging that they had been able to influence the 2016 Philippine elections so that Duterte would be president’ – I wouldn’t be surprised if China did try to influence the election result. However I am surprised that Chinese officials would be so indiscreet. The risks of that getting back to Beijing are too great, unless they wanted to be found out
Threat to UK from hostile states could be as bad as terrorism, says MI5 chief | The Guardian – while the threat from Russia, as demonstrated by the poisoning of the Skripals in Salisbury, is familiar to the British public – the spy chief will argue that threats that typically come from China are not. McCallum will say that universities and researchers risk “having their discoveries stolen or copied” if they are not vigilant and that businesses could be “hollowed out by the loss of advantage they’ve worked painstakingly to build”.