Category: technology | 技術 | 기술 | テクノロジー

It’s hard to explain to someone who didn’t live through it how transformation technology has been. When I was a child a computer was something mysterious. My Dad has managed to work his way up from the shop floor of the shipyard where he worked and into the planning office.

One evening he broad home some computer paper. I was fascinated by the the way the paper hinged on perforations and had tear off side edges that allowed it to be pulled through the printer with plastic sprockets connecting through holes in the paper.

My Dad used to compile and print off work orders using an ICL mainframe computer that was timeshared by all the shipyards that were part of British Shipbuilders.

I used the paper for years for notes and my childhood drawings. It didn’t make me a computer whiz. I never had a computer when I was at school. My school didn’t have a computer lab. I got to use Windows machines a few times in a regional computer labs. I still use what I learned in Excel spreadsheets now.

My experience with computers started with work and eventually bought my own secondhand Mac. Cut and paste completely changed the way I wrote. I got to use internal email working for Corning and internet connectivity when I went to university. One of my friends had a CompuServe account and I was there when he first met his Mexican wife on an online chatroom, years before Tinder.

Leaving college I set up a Yahoo! email address. I only needed to check my email address once a week, which was fortunate as internet access was expensive. I used to go to Liverpool’s cyber cafe with a friend every Saturday and showed him how to use the internet. I would bring any messages that I needed to send pre-written on a floppy disk that also held my CV.

That is a world away from the technology we enjoy now, where we are enveloped by smartphones and constant connectivity. In some ways the rate of change feels as if it has slowed down compared to the last few decades.

  • Smartphone value system

    Benedict Evans in his post Unbundling innovation: Samsung, PCs and China compared the value system of smartphone industry to the PC industry where value began to be hollowed out and the market became commoditised.

    Evans claims that this hollowing out of the value system is already happening to Samsung. Part of the challenge is that so much of the design of the hardware layer in phones comes from reference designs by component manufacturers like Qualcomm and reference design work done by manufacturers like Foxconn. Globalisation outsourced hardware design innovation, a plus side of this is that there is a whole eco-system in southern China that can support anyone who wants to make a branded handset building on experience gained working with major technology brands. The downside that there is little room to add to the value system beyond brand marketing.

    As he quite rightly points out some businesses are looking to take control of their business by building beyond hardware and into the service stack to try and move up the value system.

    A number of manufacturers put their own UI over Android like HTC’s Sense UI and Huawei’s Emotion UI. Whilst these contributed to a handset personality, they didn’t provide true value system  differentiation. Facebook even tried to get in on the act with Facebook Home, but the user experience left something to be desired according to reviewers.

    Manufacturers tried to add applications in their phones, which competed with Google’s own application stack. At the present time, no Android manufacturer has come up with a killer application for their brand of phone, mainly because they replicated Google’s efforts and with the exception of Samsung, the application wouldn’t be sufficiently ubiquitous – particularly if it was some sort of communications platform like say Whatsapp.

    Meanwhile, Google hasn’t been sitting quietly on the sidelines but has been using its power within the community to exasperate commoditisation by combatting manufacturers efforts at software customisation. This process has been rolled further into the Android efforts with strict guidance on Android Wear devices. All of this may feel quite similar to Microsoft Windows around about the time of their dispute with Netscape.
    The ultimate budget phone shootout: Xiaomi Redmi vs Huawei Honor 3C vs Motorola G.
    Deeper innovation requires a fork in the Android OS and a break with some if not all of the services. This break has been forced on Chinese manufacturers anyway as consumers wouldn’t be able to access Google’s maps, email or search. Which is the reason why Xiaomi’s MIUI, Jolla’s Sailfish OS and CyanogenMod have an opportunity to work with phone manufacturers.
    Charles' Jolla phone
    However, the ironic aspect of this is that any of these platforms became too successful they would wield as much power as Google does at the moment.

    A sweet spot for hardware manufacturers would be a hetreogenuous OS environment, all of which will run Android-compliant applications. In order for this to work, you would need an equivalent of POSIX compliance for Unix-type operating systems for these mobile OS’ and a way of ensuring that platform innovation didn’t ossify either the OS or the internet services supporting it.

    Where does Apple fit into all this?
    DSCF6958
    Could the HTC One have been built without manufacturers having invested in milling machines after the introduction of the iPhone 5 aluminium monocoque chassis? Apple’s process innovations / popularisation of production techniques opens up opportunities for the wider Android community. This is because of Apple’s focus on materials innovation as well full integration of the services and software stack.

    This lends weight to a viewpoint that Apple has in some respects has become a ‘fashion brand’ as one of my colleagues put it, think a watchmaker rather than say a fashion house like Louis Vuitton and the analogy has a certain amount of merit. This also implies that when thinking about the iPhone the value decision lifts itself out of the economic rational actor. However there are also shifting costs. You don’t buy a DSLR camera, you buy into a system since the camera needs lens in order to work. Applications (particularly paid for applications) play a similar role, as do services.  There is an inherent switching cost away from iPhone, this is lower when switching platform from Andrioid to iPhone and practically none existent for many users upgrading their Android handsets.

    So in many respects Apple sits apart from this in the same way that the Mac sat within, yet apart from the PC industry.

    More information
    Unbundling innovation: Samsung, PCs and China
    Android and differentiation | renaissance chambara
    Messaging’s middleware moment | renaissance chambara
    The folly of technology co-marketing budgets | renaissance chambara
    HTC One – gsmarena

  • Social platform moves

    Over the past few years things have been set in motion that are changes that are driving  social platform moves and users:

    • The rise of smartphones. I have owned a smartphone for the past decade and a phone / PDA combo for a decade and a half. Originally I had a Nokia 6600 smartphone that nestled in the hand and used a joystick for navigation, but it took the touch screen of the iPhone and Samsung Galaxy to really blow up the smartphone market. An internet computer in the palm of your hand allows the user to use micro-moments of time to message or browse content
    • The rise of mobile messaging. By 2006, I had used Skype and Yahoo! Messenger on a mobile phone, but these were legacy networks that moved from the desktop on to other devices. At the time, messaging was more about presence, was a person accessible or not when I would go to call them; rather like Novell’s directory was used with early IP telephony office networks
    • The pitfalls of truly open social. Blogging had warning signs of what could happen with social that was too open. Heather Armstrong of dooce.com had been fired in 2002 for saying the kind of things online that would have made typical Facebook wall content. Secondly, Facebook moved from being the preserve of your classmates to including: parents, grandparents, siblings, work colleagues or curious HR people

    Younger and not so young people are seeing the benefit of instant messaging that is designed around mobile devices in a wider social platform moves. OTT messaging services like Kakao Talk and WeChat allow for group discussions allowing ad-hocratric decisions like what film to watch at the cinema to be made on the fly.

    Probably just as important was that the lack of a legacy base in the applications allowed them to be designed mobile first, providing a focused elegant user experience.
    engagement
    All of this provided a compelling use case, which also meant increased engagement at the experiences of desktop-orientated social networks.

    In Korea, Facebook has made slow steady progress, helped mostly by a security breach at local network Cyworld. In comparison, KakaoTalk came from nowhere to 90% penetration of the Korean market. This change has also happened in China, it is hard to understand how fast traditional networks like Sina Weibo and Kaixin001 have been left behind by Weixin (WeChat).

    “This is a new phase for social media in China,” said Hu Yong, a journalism professor at Peking University. “It is the decline of the first large-scale forum for information in China and the rise of something more narrowly focused.”

    In reality Sina Weibo hasn’t been social media in the way we understand it in the west. Most of the accounts tend towards passive consumption, Weibo acts like a stream of news. This makes it hard to estimate how many accounts were ‘real’ and how engaged the audience was. Anecdotal evidence suggested that riends still used Sina Weibo to get celebrity gossip and news but moved to private channels for interaction.  The New York Times considered this shift in China to be one of an issue to do with freedom of speech rather than a broader social movement towards conversations closer to the ’email’ age.

    More information
    An Online Shift in China Muffles an Open Forum – NYTimes.com

  • The Zetas & other news

    The Zetas radio network

    Radio Tecnico: How The Zetas Cartel Took Over Mexico With Walkie-Talkies | Popular Science – the scale and sophistication of this network was impressive. The Zetas was formed by a group of Mexican special forces operators who deserted who set up as a murder for hire for the Gulf Cartel in Mexico. Their numbers have been expanded from the civilian population. The Zetas broke away to form their own organisation in 2010.

    Consumer behaviour

    Kids still getting too much screen time, experts say – CBS News – we heard the same things about TV before I was born and all the way through my childhood

    Resonance | The four archetypes of Chinese shoppers. – Checkout China research

    How Working on Multiple Screens Can Actually Help You Focus | WIRED – contextual usage. More related content here.

    Culture

    Classic Song ‘Stems’ Inspire Remixes – WSJ – great to see Luxxury getting some respect. Previously this level of access was limited to DJ pools like DMC in the UK (paywall)

    FMCG

    Kantar: Chinese Consumer Goods Companies Take Share from Foreign Companies | China Internet Watch – interesting to see how western CPG companies like P&G and Unilever are losing ground in China

    Ideas

    Minds and Machines | Information Processing – the singularity is a long way off

    Legal

    CITIZEN EVIDENCE LAB | Turning Citizen Media Into Citizen Evidence: Authentication Techniques For Human Rights Researchers – interesting experience in media literacy and tips on spotting fake content that goes beyond Amnesty’s worthy if narrow purpose

    Luxury

    Juicy Couture Seeks Greener Pastures In Asia | Jing Daily – shuttering US stores and opening up mainland ones. Are Chinese tourists not buying mid-market luxury in the US?

    Chow Tai Fook builds loyalty through electronic stamps | Marketing Interactive – kind of, but not Tesco Clubcard for jewellery

    Marketing

    Li & Fung spin-off Global Brands wants China brands to compete globally | SCMP – (paywall)

    From the editor-in-chief: The death of PR agencies – as we know them | PR Week – no real surprises

    Media

    Tablet Magazine Ads Seen Garnering Recall Levels on Par With Print – but the reach of tablets is still lower

    Disney Picks 11 Tech and Media Firms for Startup-Accelerator Program | Variety – following other consumer brands like Unilever, Mondelez and PepsiCo

    MediaPost Publications Marketers Still Not Sold On Native Advertising 07/08/2014 – measurement and effectiveness

    Can Social Media Spending Fit Into a Simple ROI Formula? | SearchEngineJournal – looking at this data social web marketing isn’t working that well anymore

    Why the abysmal Transformers sequel is about to become China’s top grossing film of all time – Quartz – basically relevance

    BBC Academy – Journalism – great set of resources from the BBC

    Online

    360 Search Gaining Over 28% Market Share | ChinaInternetWatch – interesting that 360 is putting up a credible challenge to Baidu

    Technology

    VIA’s new Isaiah x86/ARM hybrid CPU outperforms Intel in benchmarks – but will it ever come to market? | ExtremeTech – it reminds me of the hype around Transmeta back in the day

    Metcalfe’s Law is Wrong – IEEE Spectrum – interesting essay

    Backlash stirs in US against foreign worker visas – looks like the tech industry’s dirty little secret could come home to roost

    Web of no web

    Bits Blog: Intel, Qualcomm and Others Compete for ‘Internet of Things’ Standard | New York Times – the problem will be Qualcomm’s take on intellectual property would be incompatible with the price point of ‘internet of things’ things

    Wireless

    China operators form €1.2bn tower-sharing venture | TotalTelecom – smart move, though probably not as profitable for Huawei and ZTE as it could have been..

    Ben Thompson: ‘Smartphone Truths and Samsung’s Inevitable Decline’ | Stratechery – whilst there is an obvious analogue with the PC which benefited only Microsoft and Intel respectively, Samsung’s scale puts it in a slightly different place

    Huawei D3 could be the world’s first flagship clone! | Gizchina.com – interesting assertion, particularly as Huawei is positioning itself as innovative. Also interesting that it was copying HTC

    Samsung Finds It Costly to Keep Up with China – Businessweek – Chinese firms treading on their turf

  • The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation by Jon Gertner

    The Idea Factory reaches back to an age that is now alien to most of us. At one time the most complex devices that people generally had in their homes were a sewing machine, a piano or a mechanical clock or watch. Yet we now view clothes (particularly those from H&M and Primark) as disposable objects, have a limitless amount of media entertainment available at our finger tips and the complexity of a smartphone in your pocket eclipses the complexity of any device in a home just a few decades previously.

    idea factory
    Gertner tracks the rise of the American telephone company AT&T through its research arm Bell Labs. Reading the book, the first thing that strikes you is the immense complexity of the very young telephone networks with its complex mechanical switches, manually operated patch boards and strands of copper telephone lines stringing the country together in a way far more immediate than railway travel.

    Out of Bell Labs came a flurry of developments over just a few decades: the vacuum tube
    Valve or thermionic diode
    the transistor
    From Satori to Silicon Valley
    the laser
    A dress with lasers! (Designed by Hussein Chalayan)
    fibre optic networks
    Amazing table
    the CCD (charged couple device) which is the eye of video and digital cameras
    R2D2 bonds with a digital camera
    and the cellular networks we now take for granted
    Sonim XP3 unboxing and comparison
    What the book fails to answer is the very nature of innovation that Bell Labs was held up for. Is there an ideal structure for innovation? It seems to be the case that ‘it depends’ is the answer; the innovations seemed to come from brilliant individuals, small teams and herculean efforts.

    Robert X. Cringely in his book Accidental Empires talked about Silicon Valley really revolving around the efforts and successes of some four dozen people being at the right place and the right time. Gertner’s book implies a similar linkage bringing in a number of names familiar with technology history: Claude Shannon, William Shockley and Charles Kao.

    AT&T launched Telstar based on a range of technologies that had been developed over the previous decades at Bell Labs, from solar cells to vacuum tube-based amplifiers. The company had a tight relationship with the Department of Defence due to the amount of work it had done in the early cold war on radar and guidance systems. The satellite was launched aloft on a first generation Delta rocket, US military payloads now travel into space on a fourth generation Delta rocket.

    It was also apparent that innovation seems to have its natural time like the Technium of Kevin Kelly’s book What Technology Wants; indeed the history of the Bell Company had much to do with Alexander Bell’s dash to patent an invention that had also been conceived at the same time by another gentleman called Gray.

    There is an interesting case study in product development failure with a look at AT&T’s abortive picture phone service from the early 1960s.

    In comparison to Bell Labs early history the book moves at break-neck speed through the history of the labs after the break up of AT&T in 1984.  A few things that sprung  out of this:

    Lucent’s rise and decline due to vendor financing of telecoms equipment sales. It is interesting that Huawei arranges for Chinese state banks to put up the financing rather than putting up the money itself; but essentially sells on the same premise that made Lucent successful.

    The nature of innovation had fundamentally changed, there was now a core body of work that corporate innovation could draw on without doing the kind of unfettered research that Bell Labs had carried out and facilitated great leaps forward.

    If you are at all curious about the why of your smartphone, broadband connection or the underpinnings of the software running your MacBook then The Idea Factory is a recommended read. My one criticism is that the post-break up Bell Labs deserves far more exploration than The Idea Factory gives it. You can find more book reviews here.

  • Carbon nanotubes & other news

    Carbon nanotubes

    IBM betting carbon nanotubes can restore Moore’s Law by 2020 | ExtremeTech – interesting, IBM research has been at the leading edge of a lot of semiconductor manufacturing techniques including:

    • Copper interconnects
    • RISC architecture design
    • Multi-core design
    • Strained silicon substrates

    Carbon nanotubes may join particularly as there is so much speculation about the state and future of IBM’s chip business as management moves towards a software and services based future. Is IBM preparing to sell the chip manufacturing business to the highest bidder?

    Business

    Amazon China chief replaced with another expat | WantChinaTimes – the back story is that Amazon has about 2 per cent of the e-commerce market in China

    Design

    Waterproof CD player with vocal removal function | AkihabaraNews – interesting thinking about context. Japan is still a big physical media market (they still have Tower Records) and people love to sing in the shower

    Economics

    HK’s retail sales fell in May | RTHK – its all about valuable gifts: watches, bags etc dropping by 25%

    Ideas

    The Future of the Workforce May Be Part-Time, Says Google CEO Larry Page | Re/code – utopian spin on zero-hour contracts?

    Korea

    S Korea to break away from Windows by 2020 | WantChinaTimes – interesting move: Windows 8 partly to blame, I suspect also the security decisions made around Active X made Koreans think twice before attaching themselves to Microsoft

    Online

    An Online Shift in China Muffles an Open Forum – NYTimes.com – “This is a new phase for social media in China,” said Hu Yong, a journalism professor at Peking University. “It is the decline of the first large-scale forum for information in China and the rise of something more narrowly focused.” – the authors have positioned this as a Chinese -specific move yet it is mirrored in the west with the rise of Whatsapp, Telegram and other OTT messenger services

    Google bans porn from its ad network | CNBC – Google obviously doesn’t need the revenue, which bodes well for ongoing quarterly number going forwards

    UK’s Porn Filter Triggers Widespread Internet Censorship | TorrentFreakThe results of ORG’s new tool show that what started as a “porn filter” has turned into something much bigger. Under the guise of “protecting the children” tens of thousands of sites are now caught up in overbroad filters, which is a worrying development to say the least – interesting that some are blocking the Open Rights Group and open source software sites

    Thanks To “Right To Be Forgotten,” Google Now Censors The Press In The EU | Marketingland – once you take the 1st amendment driven angst viewpoint out of this, its a great summary of things by Danny Sullivan

    Tencent Opening Up API for Wechat Login — China Internet Watch – expect WeChat’s app constellation to mushroom outside the Tencent family. More on WeChat here.

    Security

    3 Real Security Risks Threatening Your Smart TV Entertainment | Make Use Of – make mine a dumb TV

    Technology

    CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Is Invading The Enterprise – Business Insider – there is also a credibility issue, go to a developer conference and there is a sea of silver lids, this will knock on into the enterprise

    Telecoms

    I, Cringely The Secret of Google X – I, Cringely – I think untethered balloons aren’t a smart move either