Blog

  • CNY 2025

    CNY 2025 or Chinese new year 2025 is shorthand often used as a hashtag on social media to circulate songs, sales promotions and advertisements from across China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia. I started off this post into gathering some of the best examples of CNY 2025 advertising just after Christmas and there was a poor range of adverts just a month out from CNY 2025. Imagine if there were no Christmas adverts appearing by the third week in November?

    Small businesses like the Davely Bakery Café in Malaysia had started promoting organic social content on their Facebook page by November 19. (In markets such as the Philippines, Hong Kong and Malaysia, Facebook is still big business.)

    CNY 2025 - Davely Bakery Café

    But where were the large company promotions this close to the festival? Brand campaigns only really started to appear from the second week in January onwards.

    CNY 2025 themes that I took away from researching this post:

    • Increased emphasis on demand generation and sales promotions.
    • Less big brands advertising than previous years.
    • Campaigns were run over a shorter period. Roughly half the six weeks I would have expected for successful brand building campaigns.
    • Less of a focus on storytelling and deep emotional cues than previous years.
    • Lower production values as a whole than previous years.
    • A move towards bus wraps in Singapore for CNY 2025 campaigns. These were replicated in ‘bus simulator’ games popular amongst transport fans in Hong Kong and Singapore. This replication was less about a ‘brand gaming strategy’ and more about fan curated bus skins for absolute fidelity to their favourite bus routes.
    • Less emphasis on creative consistency than in previous years.
    • Shorter ads, each with a lot of 15-second edits.
    • Increased use of humour.
    • Increased use of songs, presumably to gain earned and shared media support – very hard to do successfully as a strategy when there are so many songs to choose from.
    • Lazy use of celebrities – I hadn’t see this in previous years doing this.

    As a marketer, I saw things in CNY 2025 that I thought was good and things that I worried about in these changes between CNY 2025 and previous years:

    • Smarter memory structure building: fluent objects such as Kevin the First Pride nugget, the use of jingles and ear worm songs, the use of humour
    • Red flags for brand mental availablility: a lack of creative consistency, shorter ads and lazy use of celebrities. Shorter ads can, if done right be used to build brand, BUT, there are a number of factors to consider when doing it successfully. These include variety of formats, reach / marketing penetration, repetition, single-minded creative execution and the thumb-stopping factor.

    Reading the ‘tea leaves’ I suspect that marketing budgets have been cut, and brands might not be expecting as much of an uplift this year as China’s poor economic performance affects its neighbours.

    China

    Apple

    Apple continued its shot on an iPhone series. The Chinese New Year film is run in lots of markets but primarily made for China. I am surprised that this got past the censors. Time travel is usually a a no-no. It also reminds China’s currency economically challenged consumers of the 1990s go-go years of year-on-year double digit growth. The core aspect of the creative is the direct questions that younger family members receive.

    CNY 2025 is the first time that Apple didn’t have a Chinese film maker shot its film. Finally, Apple’s film comes in at a whooping 11 minutes 59 seconds although a good minutes is the credits.

    Bottega Veneta

    Bottega Veneta’s Chinese New Year film is all about vibes. There were some interesting styling choices in the film. The older guy with the women’s hand bag. That most of it seemed to be around older alleyways that have been refurbished. The lady in the 1980s era Jaguar. Pre-1997, a number of more anglophile Hong Kong businessmen used to get driven around in Jaguar and Daimler cars with a large V12 engine – that spoke to old money in this film.

    I was stuck by the lack of explicit references to new year, which you can also see in the Miu Miu film – what there is are more subtle cues.

    All of which is a world away from many luxury brands slapping a snake on everything this year.

    Gucci

    Gucci taps into the traditional multi-generational party and memories of ‘snake’ new years of the past. It’s probably the strongest bit of storytelling and the most cinematic of all the films that I have looked at this year.

    Miu Miu

    Prada sub-brand Miu Miu is one of the few stand out brands in a tough 2024 for the luxury sector. This Chinese New Year film is playful, borrowing from Asian mid-century set design and 1990s era Chinese electronica to tell a small story.

    Hong Kong

    Coca-Cola

    Coca-Cola has a dominant position in the soft drinks market thanks to its dominance in distribution. The only places I could buy Pepsi was in my local Pizza Hut when I lived there. This year they focused on out of home posters to reinforce memory structures. The unusual aspect to the campaign was that it went up in early February at the end of Chinese New Year. That’s a bit like launching your Christmas advertising on New Year’s Eve. Not sure why that’s happened.

    coca cola hong kong

    Giordano

    Multinational clothing brand Giordano promoted a CNY 2025 collaboration featuring the Kung Fu Panda character on its social media accounts. The preponderance of red in the clothing isn’t only about it being a seasonal colour, but also you are supposed to wear new red clothing for the new year.

    This social media film was run on channels in Hong Kong, Malaysia and other countries where Giordano has a presence.

    Malaysia

    100PLUS

    100PLUS is an isotonic drink similar in function to Gatorade or Lucozade Sport popular in Malaysia and Singapore. Its advert for Malaysia promotes the drink as alternative to colas during new year celebrations. A secondary aspect is the opportunity to win a free prize draw. The blue in the outfits is to presumably signal the blue in the brand and packaging.

    It’s slightly unusual in that it doesn’t feature multi-generational family members, which I suspect is down to a single-minded focus on teens and young adults.

    Aeon

    Japanese supermarket Aeon highlighted their CNY themed collaboration with Italian artist TokiDoki as a music video format that you could sing along too. It’s a little too mild to be an aggressive earworm of a tune.

    Aglow Clinic

    Aglow Clinic is an aesthetics clinic in Malaysia that treats a range of skin conditions including sun spots. They partnered with social media personality Roderic Chan to make this film. Considering the small size of the brand they hit well above their weight in terms of production values.

    Aiken

    Aiken is a Malaysian based beauty brand. The creative was done by the media buying agency and features Malaysian influencers as the talent in the advertisement.

    Aiken wishes you Double the Brightness for a Brighter Year! is clever word play that implicitly links feeling beautiful and the promise of good fortune. This advert went out very late into the market for 2025.

    Carina

    Carina is a household tissue brand in Malaysia, similar to Kleenex in the UK and Ireland. It has gone down the ear worm route with its song. The montage of footage feels crowdsourced.

    Eu Yan Sang

    Eu Yan Sang did separate creative for Malaysia. There are higher production values than their Singapore creative and storytelling that ties back to creating memories and tradition being a key part of Chinese New Year. The advert sought to show that the family weren’t wealthy, but had food on their plate, good manners and retained their cultural roots. As a first-generation emigrant myself this one spoke to me.

    First Pride

    Tyson Foods First Pride range of processed chicken product including chicken nuggets and satay slices featured a simple sales promotion with a sweepstake format. The advert also introduced a fluent object ‘Kevin’ the chicken nugget on a TV advert.

    Kevin had previously been shared only on out of home formats. It would be interesting to see if and how they make future use of Kevin.

    Guardian

    Guardian is the Malaysian brand of the better known Asian pharmacy retail chain better known as Mannings in Hong Kong and China. A UK analogue would be Boots. It has higher production values and evokes togetherness, good fortune and memory-making for our young protagonist. Click here to see on YouTube.

    guardian cny 2025

    Haier

    Chinese white goods manufacturer took an unconventional storytelling approach. it’s the kind of creative concept that could be used year on year, just changing the product line-up.

    Harvey Norman

    Electrical retailer Harvey Norman ties into the fact that bargains are a constant discussion around the table during Chinese New Year (and any other family gathering). The production feels rather low rent compared to other adverts here.

    HongLeong Bank

    HongLeong Bank took the story of two customers that fitted neatly with the festivities around Chinese New Year. It gives a good old tug on the heart strings.

    Julie’s

    Julie’s a is a biscuit brand that tries to focus on the human side of food. Given the visiting and gifting culture for Chinese new year – the opportunity is ideal for its brand. I was surprised by the high production values of the advert. The 3d animation is creatively consistent with work that they’ve put out over the past year. As a direction the CNY 2025 campaign is very different from their last festival campaign for CNY 2022.

    Julie’s can continue to run this campaign after CNY 2025 is over due to the lack of overt seasonal themes in the advert.

    KitKat

    KitKat Malaysia have attached the Chinese New Year creative back to ‘have a break, have a KitKat’ for creative consistency. There is enough in here to say new year. But a sufficiently light touch that they could use it year-in, year-out – so long as the brand uses the same promotional packaging design.

    If they had used snake imagery, it would be one-and-done.

    Knife

    Knife are a food flavourings brand from Malaysia. Their main advertising push is for Chinese New Year and they have made a constant effort to bring creative consistency and storytelling into their work. CNY 2025 is no exception to this approach.

    Lay’s crisps

    Lay’s (known as Walkers in the UK) highlight their role as a snack at new year’s gatherings. The ad promotes a new year themed sweepstake including mahjong sets.

    Lotus’s

    Lotus’s is a supermarket market chain. In Malaysia, the shops were formerly Tesco Malaysia and sold on to a Thai retail group. This film focuses on the stress of preparing for new year, together with sales promotions. Aside from holding red t-shirts with the ‘Fu’ symbol on them, this sales promotion video could be for any time of the year. The 1970s called and wants it’s ad creative back from this Malaysian supermarket chain.

    Melinda Looi

    Malaysian fashion designer Melinda Looi came up with a homage to Wong Ka wai’s In The Mood For Love. The advert nails the mid-century elegance but struggles to get the cinematic richness and tension of the original.

    I respect that they gave it a good try and love their ambition; but it’s like Ted Baker trying to pull off the introduction to The Italian Job.

    Mr DIY

    Mr DIY is a hardware chain similar to Lowe’s in the US or B&Q in the UK. Their advert riffs on the heightened tensions of family get togethers and the relative popularity in Hong Kong film making of court room dramas – to add a bit of cultural relevance. It taps into the stressor of very direct questions similar to BRANDS Singapore campaign.

    Mr Muscle

    Household cleaner brand Mr Muscle had a Korean celebrity record a CNY 2025 specific message for their Facebook page viewers.

    The advert features Korean drama and film actor Kim Seon Ho. In common with other Korean celebrities he endorses a variety of brands in Korea and other Asian countries. For some of the brands endorsed, they have had record sales which they attribute to working with Kim. It’s not sophisticated but will appeal to his many fans in Malaysia.

    Munchy’s

    Munchy Food Brands is a Malaysian snack brand. The advert itself is pretty self explanatory. Like Watson’s they are leaning hard into trying to create an ear worm to aid long term brand recall that’s complete with an EDM-style drop.

    Nivea

    Nivea looked to promote their men’s products as a way to solve for the stress of direct family feedback on how you look. It has been shot for mobile.

    Pantai Hospital

    Pantai Medical Group runs a private hospital in Malaysia that caters to more well-off Malaysians. The emphasis on healthy food in the advert relates to the central role that food plays in Chinese New Year celebrations.

    Their elective treatments are likely to be quiet during CNY 2025, so they have provided the option for health-focused external catering. It’s an interesting product innovation for those close to their hospital in Penang. The behind the scenes clips at the end draws on Korean and Hong Kong productions. The best known in the West would be the blooper reels that used to appear at the end of Jackie Chan films.

    Petronas

    Petronas is the Malaysian national oil company. There is a natural fit with CNY 2025 because children go home to see their parents and siblings. Later on during the celebrations they will drive to visit relatives. On the Malaysian peninsula you could be a long time in heavy traffic, so pit-stops for fuel and refreshments are pretty much obligatory.

    Ribena

    Brutally short creative with the tagline left right at the end. ‘Ooo Juicy Fu’ – the fu is a reference to the Chinese character fu symbolising ‘fortune’. It is creatively consistent with campaigns that Ribera ran for Ramadan and the previous CNY in Malaysia.

    Shopee

    Shopee is a mobile marketplace think Shopify, Depop or Uber Eats in an app. Like Watsons Malaysian campaign it relies on a ‘new years’ song. Why a song? Entertainment during Chinese new year features newly composed catchy earworms. These may come from film series put out as family entertainment for the new year like the All’s Well, That Ends Well series of Hong Kong comedies, or television and adverts.

    Watsons

    Watsons is a Hong Kong-headquartered pharmacy chain with stores across Asia and a strong focus on health and beauty products. It’s parent company AS Watson is a set of diversified retail brands including:

    • Superdrug and Savers in the UK
    • Rossmann
    • Fortress (a PC World or Best Buy analogue)
    • PARKnSHOP, Taste, FUSION, GREAT FOOD HALL – grocery stores
    • Watson’s Wine

    They have been teasing a song related Chinese New Year campaign for Malaysia to embed in your memory structures, but were only showcasing the song 2 1/2 weeks before CNY 2025. Rapid screening of sales promotions drown out the ‘Happy Beautiful Year’ themed brand building effort.

    Yakult

    The Japanese yoghurt drink brand used some good fortune themed imagery to promote a brand sweepstake. A very simple execution that could be used again in future years.

    Singapore

    BRANDS

    BRANDS is a food and supplement business. Traditional Chinese Medicine often recommends eating particular foods to treat different ailments, which is why BRANDS essence of chicken sits in a kind of ‘wellness’ space.

    Their advert draws on the universal experience of very direct questions that people have to field from relatives when they go home for Chinese new year.

    Eu Yan Sang

    Eu Yan Sang run traditional Chinese medicine and related wellness foods shops and clinics across Asia. This Singapore ad focuses on the challenge of gift giving and the close link between good fortune and good health. Unusually, they’ve also run a second lot of creative promoting their CNY themed hamper designs as well.

    FairPrice

    FairPrice is a Singapore institution. Like the UK’s Co-op, it is a supermarket owned by the National Trade Union Congress and is the largest grocery chain in Singapore owning both supermarkets and convenience stores.

    The ad focuses on everyday Singaporeans with many of the shots modelled on HDB flats – Singapore’s public housing. The colour grading and small moments designed to evoke different types of nostalgia from the rituals of family and the Chinese New Year.

    Hockhua tonic

    Hockhua is a Singaporean local wellness foods brand who did a simple sales promotion for their hampers to be provided for the new year. The cut-off time then gave the brand a few weeks to assemble to the appropriate amount of hampers.

    Lazada

    E-tailer Lazada leads with sales promotions. The imagery draws on Fu xing, the god of good fortune who you would pray to in order to get a prosperous new year.

    Ministry of Digital Development and Information

    The government of Singapore used Chinese new year to reinforce a common Singaporean identity and celebrate the 60th anniversary of the city state. Sing-a-longs are a part of Chinese new year. The video featured a 1980s song that was originally recored by the artists in 1998 re-recorded by them for the government department encouraging t he citizens to look out for each other. The video was published just days before new year and relied primarily on the reach of the former prime minister’s Instagram account. It shares a common theme of small but joyful moments with the FairPrice CNY 2025 advert.

    Thailand

    This is the first year that I have covered a Thai market campaign. Thailand has a significant ethnic Chinese minority (between 10 – 15% of the population depending on which estimates you reference). Like Indonesia, Thailand integrated them for political reasons and many of them no longer have Chinese sounding family names – but the traditions live on. A second aspect is the increased role in the Thai economy that Chinese expats and tourists now play.

    Central

    Central is a premium department store in Thailand (think Peter Jones in London) and has a mid-tier brand called Robinsons (think Debenhams or House of Fraser). You have a stylistic version of the new year dinner and a cool grandfather who owes a lot to mature Japanese hipsters and The Sartorialist. The film has high production values and leans on vibes rather than storytelling, but is distinctive.

    You can find my previous reviews of Chinese New Year ads here.

  • Foreign workers + more stuff

    Foreign workers

    Foreign workers in Singapore parlance are people who come from around Southeast Asia and South Asia to do blue collar and pink collar jobs in the city state.

    In a number of Asian countries including Hong Kong and Singapore; Filipino and Indonesian workers came to care for old people at home, look after children and conduct household tasks.

    This group of foreign workers freed up middle class married women in Singapore and other countries to participate more to their economy, capitalising on their education and ability to earn more in fast-growing economies. They had higher levels of workforce participation than their female counterparts in Japan and South Korea.

    foreign worker philipppines

    The Philippines relies almost five-fold more on remittances for its GDP than similar countries like Indonesia.

    What’s less reflected upon is the social upheaval and challenges that these foreign workers face in their new homes. They are in a different culture, away from friends and family as a support network. They have tremendous pressure to remit as much money as possible home.

    They only have each other to rely upon. This skate team is just one of the activities that foreign workers do. From informal gatherings with friends to sophisticated beauty pageants, volleyball and basketball leagues. More Singapore related content can be found here.

    Beauty

    China’s beauty market is a sight for sore eyes | FT – The brand keeps prices of its products, from face powders to creams, closer to those of premium international brands, in line with L’Oréal’s Lancôme and Shiseido’s Nars. The rise of a domestic premium brand points to a significant shift in mainland shoppers’ buying habits as well as highlighting improvements in the quality of domestic products

    Business

    Business execs just said the quiet part out loud on RTO mandates — A quarter admit forcing staff back into the office was meant to make them quit | ITPro

    China

    Impatient for tech breakthroughs, the Communist Party is pushing aside private initiatives | Merics – the government is trying to pick winners and backfill the funding gap left in the VC industry which has declined over 40%.

    China’s long view on quantum tech has the US and EU playing catch-up | Merics – China sees quantum technology as pivotal in global science and technology (S&T) competition and has stepped up government spending on scientific and industrial development to about USD 15 billion.

    Consumer behaviour

    Paper People | Yun Sheng | Granta – virtual dating simulators and virtual love. Japan leads where the aging world is likely to follow

    2024 Year in Review – Pornhub Insights – young people (gen-Z) make the highest traffic.

    Gen Alpha report: Teens see Starbucks as the new Venmo – Fast Company – equivalent to rounds in a bar.

    From like to love: understanding why consumers fall in love with some products | Kearney

    Culture

    Y3K: Futuristic fashion trend sweeps China | Jing Daily – Inspired by AI, VR, and the metaverse, and propelled by K-pop idols and Korean brands, Y3K is rapidly gaining popularity among Gen Z. – very William Gibson ‘Burning Chrome’ era

    Economics

    Diverging demographic destinies: Cars and the middle class | WARC – According to Pew, the American middle class has shrunk significantly in the last few decades. The top 20% of earners now take more than 50% of aggregate income because theirs has grown faster. 88% of Americans have less than $2000 in their checking account and 50% have less than $500 in savings. The average cost of a new car in 1984 was $6000 and the average household income was $27k. Today average household income is $80k [Fed] but averages conceal the widened gap between maxima and minima: the median income per person is around $35k [Census]. The average price of a new car is almost $50k, which is surprising enough that CNN wrote an article about it. They explain that “much of the reason Americans are paying nearly $50k for a car is that automakers decided to go all-in on expensive cars. The more they charge for a car, the more money they make off it.” 

    Whereas forty years ago an average new car cost about a fifth of an average annual salary, a new car is now prohibitively expensive for most. That’s why Americans have a record $1.6 trillion of outstanding car debt and delinquencies are rising.

    What the Bubble Got Right | Paul Graham

    2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook | Fabricated Knowledge – early indications for an economic downturn?

    Energy

    Is China’s “peak coal” just spouting emissions? | Too Simple, Sometimes Naive

    Hong Kong

    Asia’s Walled City: The Erosion of Transparency in Hong Kong | International Republican Institute – interesting report, particularly some of the knock-on effects for sectors such as public affairs professionals, financial analysts and being able to do due diligence on businesses.

    Japan

    FirstFT: Nissan and Honda hold talks about a merger


    Biden’s Move to Block US Steel Deal Is No Way to Treat Japan – Bloomberg
    In the executive order preventing the deal on spurious national security grounds, staffers for President Joe Biden appeared to accidentally copy-and-paste the title of a previous presidential order — one ordering a Chinese crypto mining company to vacate property near an Air Force base. The left the Nippon Steel directive entitled: “Regarding the acquisition of certain real property of Cheyenne leads by MineOne Cloud Computing Investment.”

    Luxury

    Interesting research from two sources that don’t quite square with each other. Walpole’s The State of London Luxury 2024 report came out and painted a rosy picture about the ultra high end aspect of the London property market. Meanwhile over at the FT, Why London’s property market is stagnating points at the same end of the market as being moribund in nature.

    United States Luxury Fine Jewelry Market Expected to Reach USD 24,374.3 Million by 2034, Driven by Sustainability and Personalization Trends | Future Market Insights. – The luxury fine jewelry market in the United States is poised for steady growth, with the market size expected to reach USD 17,353.6 million in 2024. The market is projected to continue expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%, reaching USD 24,374.3 million by 2034

    Marketing

    Ipsos In Talks To Acquire Kantar Media | Media Post Agency Daily

    Full article: Infusing Affective Computing Models into Advertising Research on Emotions | Journal of Advertising Volume 53, 2024 – Issue 5: Computational Advertising Research Methodology – academic study to look at the kind of research techniques that the likes of System 1, iPSOS and Kantar use in assessing advertising

    Ageism in advertising: AI and layoffs exacerbate the issue | Ad Age – baked in (but largely incorrect) perceptions about ‘not being able to use AI’ and reducing headcount is crippling the existing DEI dumpster fire in the advertising industry.

    Media

    Jellyfish Launches Share of Model™ Platform, First-to-Market Solution to Track How LLMs Perceive Brands, Products & Services – Marketing Communication News – Share of Model™ Platform – a first-of-its-kind solution that enables companies to analyze how different Large Language Models (LLMs) perceive their brands, products and services. Critically, the new platform can identify whether or not brands are optimizing their digital presence enough to prompt coveted recommendations from Gen AI models such as ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Meta’s Llama, when people tap into them for guidance.

    The Media Mix Navigator tool

    Retailing

    Foot Locker hit by slower spending and NIKE ‘softness’ | WARC | The Feed

    How WhatsApp for business changed the world – Rest of World

    Security

    Romania blames Russia for election meddling | FT

    How Chinese Hackers Graduated From Clumsy Corporate Thieves to Military Weapons – WSJ

    How macOS has become more private – The Eclectic Light Company

    Afgantsy Redux: How Russian military intelligence used the Taliban to bleed U.S. forces at the end of America’s longest war

    Technology

    Intel on the Brink of Death – SemiAnalysis & The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail – by Doug O’Laughlin. This interview with former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, back when he was the project manager for the Intel 386 processor. In retrospect, Gelsinger’s return as CEO could be seen as an Intel C-suite cargo cult hoping for 386-like success again.

    Telecoms

    U.S. officials urge Americans to use encrypted apps amid cyberattack | NBC News

    Web-of-no-web

    Top secret lab develops atomic clock using quantum technology – GOV.UK

  • Interpublic acquisition by Omnicom

    Interpublic disclosure

    I have worked at Interpublic twice during my career. Once at the very start of my career and more recently at McCann Health. I was never vested in Interpublic stock and I don’t own any Interpublic or Omnicom shares. This is not financial advice I am not telling you what you should do.

    This post is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, or a solicitation of any vote or approval, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction.

    I am pointing out the bits in discussions that I found interesting, and some bits that I found deathly dull, but pertinent.

    The shape of it

    The acquisition would be done by issuing stock. It wouldn’t involve Omnicom’s cash reserves or raising debt to make the purchase. Following the deal, the new Omnicom would be owned by

    • 60.6% of former existing Omnicom shareholders
    • 39.4% of former Interpublic shareholders

    Deal expected to close in the second half of 2025. Once it is closed Omnicom expected to get $750 million in cost savings over the following two years. Combined cashflow of more than $3 billion a year.

    Investment analyst call

    The investment analyst call was led by Omnicom’s John Wren and featured Phillippe Krakowsky. One of the main factors raised on the call by Wren was the reduction on debt to EBITDA of Omnicom from 2.5x to 2.1x. The combined organisation also had a more balanced maturity profile on debt.

    The deal impacted scale in two ways:

    • Efficiencies due to scale.
    • Increased capacity to borrow and fund future purchases.

    What was less clear from the call was the value to customers. Healthcare was cited as an area of opportunity as both businesses had a substantial healthcare marketing offering. But nothing on how to capitalise on the opportunity.

    What I didn’t hear was how the combined business was going to get to 750 million of savings, but that they were confident that they could hit that number in two years after the deal closed.

    I also didn’t hear a clear position on how the combined firm would deal with the drain of advertising revenue from marketing conglomerates and media companies to platforms. There was some lip service given to being able to better address generative AI related change as a larger group.

    Finally there was no analysis, or consideration about how Omnicom and Interpublic would surpass their competitors innovation. Instead the focus was purely on existing combined size.

    Shareholder value

    At the time of the announcement, the deal was said to offer a premium in terms of value to Interpublic shareholders.

    As for Omnicom shareholders, they claimed: The transaction will be accretive to adjusted earnings per share for both Omnicom and Interpublic shareholders.

    Slow gains – which might make taking that money out of their existing shares and instead putting it in a S&P 500 tracker ETF seem more attractive.

    Industry animal spirits (aka what people were saying in my feeds and op-eds)

    The reaction on social platforms was shrill and overwhelmingly negative. The reasons given included:

    • The inevitable job cuts.
    • The internal preoccupation that comes from two large organisations coming together.
    • The lack of clarity about unique benefit that the new company would provide.
    • The two-year inward focus on consolidation would allow more innovative competitors (depending who you listened to this would be Accenture, Brandtech, Dentsu, Publicis, Stagwell) gain further ground.

    Later on, the discussion moved on towards the reactionary nature of the discussion itself.

    From within Interpublic itself, I heard concern about the future from people in different parts of the business. This was down to a lack of internal communication rather than anything specific in nature.

    Left unchecked, it could be morale sapping and might encourage some of the best talent to leave for more stable environs.

    Update: January 17, 2025Campaign magazine podcast. The most interesting argument made in the podcast was that the media buying and creative arms of Interpublic are seen as having little-to-no-value and that deal from Omnicom’s perspective was all about Interpublic’s data platform.

    Any self-respecting investment banker worth their salt would be able to break the conglomerate down into constituent parts and sell it off (as what has happened with Interpublic agencies R/GA and Huge already).

    • In the PR and social / influence sector Golin and Weber Collective would make natural groupings to be spun off and still with enough scale to compete on the global stage.
    • From a creative agency perspective, it would be a similar situation with Mullen Lowe and McCann World Group.
    • IPG Health looks like it had already been pre-packaged for private equity when it was carved away from its advertising groups and nominally has a full suite of offerings to provide the pharmaceutical sector clients.
    • For bits of networks that you can’t sell. For instance if the purchaser doesn’t want to have an agency office in Malaysia (Malaysia is only in here hypothetically, in reality I have no idea why more global corporate headquarters aren’t located in the Cameron highlands); you can recoup some of your money by facilitating a management buyout. These are more common than you realise.

    Instead the podcast participants think that clients are just all about first and third party data platforms. I would argue that’s a simplistic view that ignores:

    • The relative complementary nature of the Interpublic and Omnicom networks in terms of product spread and geographical reach. In most markets, one or the other network has an appreciably stronger position. Where there is consolidation needed, this would most likely result in redundancies in the Asia Pacific and European regions.
    • Client brands need for continued brand building and the current chaos in the major platforms pivoting to the new presidential administration’s direction.
    • ‘Bad neighbourhoods’ for brand content will adversely affect the ability of brands to advertise or promote themselves effectively. It’s harder to build effective brand memory structures in what consumers are likely to perceive as a hateful, or hostile environment.
    • Finally there is the the little acknowledged fact that social platform advertising is disproportionally supported by D2C marketing and varying forms of hucksterism from Temu to get-rich schemes. This isn’t the kind of businesses that fill up the client ranks of large marketing conglomerates like Omnicom and Interpublic.

    What business thinking says

    Harvard Business Review claims that 70 to 90 percent of mergers and acquisitions fail. By comparison, anywhere between 25 and 80 percent of large IT projects fail. 70 to 85 percent of new consumer product launches fail. TL;DR running a business is tough.

    Secondly, Omnicom and Interpublic grew historically through acquisitions. Which would mean that they understand how to move a business forward and integrate their new acquisition.

    The business model that marketing services conglomerates historically worked on was a mix of an arbitrage play, driving integration and efficiencies.

    Arbitrage

    Omnicom and Interpublic both relied on a few ways to gain an arbitrage benefit:

    • Private companies are generally cheaper to buy than publicly listed firms. It’s a matter of economics, publicly listed firms list in a closer to perfect market. Secondly, buyout contracts to get the management to meet financial targets that facilitate either a faster financial payback or a cheaper price on the business.
    • Larger companies like Omnicom can borrow money at more favourable terms than a small to medium-sized business. Larger companies that have lower levels of leverage will be able to get money in a more favourable format than more highly leveraged business of the same size.

    Driving integration

    Historically these groups take a light touch on integration for agencies where the capabilities are common to more than one agency, WHERE the acquired agency is hitting the ambitious financial targets set by the holding company. Integration in terms of integrated new business pitches and common selling of new products or capabilities.

    This might be where the client is looking for an integrated solution. Or it might be where it makes sense to pool resources to deal with a new area like Amazon advertising and retail media or generative AI services.

    Once a newly acquired business has become ‘part of the furniture’ and the founders have stepped away, you are more likely to see it become more deeply knitted into the holding group business fabric. This is likely to include common systems and processes: time-tracking software, HR and talent management software, accounting software, cloud services and productivity software.

    Efficiencies

    Sources of efficiencies overlap integration through standardisation and being able to buy in bulk. A second source of efficiency is consolidation of common business functions:

    • Accounting / finance
    • Business development
    • Freelance staff pool
    • Human resources and recruitment
    • IT
    • Knowledge management
    • Legal services

    Open questions

    Both Omnicom and Interpublic have experience of integrating and spinning off parts of their businesses. What’s different about the Interpublic acquisition is that the scale involved is different from anything else that’s been undertaken in the sector.

    • How will this be done successfully?
    • What (additional) value is in the resulting business for clients?

    ADWEEK polled marketers to better understand their attitude to the merger. On balance they weren’t supportive of the deal. Twice as many respondents were negative about the deal compared to those who felt positively about it. The good news was that almost 60 percent either hadn’t made their mind up or were on balance neutral. At this point I need to caveat the results with the note that there wasn’t a breakdown on the types of respondents in terms of their role and seniority.

    Omnicom IPG

    But it implied that Omnicom had a serious communication job to be done convincing wider stakeholders on the merits of the deal.

    The problem might be greater than telling a better story. By some estimates 60% of Interpublic and Omnicom scopes of work are allegedly already understaffed – if true, likely putting customer satisfaction at risk. And that’s before the reduction in headcount to match the need for cost savings.

    More information

    Omnicom to Acquire Interpublic Group to Create Premier Marketing and Sales Company – Omnicom Group Inc. Newsroom

    Omnicom SEC filings – Omnicom Group Inc. Investor Relations

    IPG Mediabrands To Lay Off 103 Staffers | AdWeek – this is fast, if related to the Omnicom acquisition announcement

    Things to Consider During Blackout and Quiet Periods | Gilmartin Group

    CAGR S&P500 calculator

    Don’t Make This Common M&A Mistake | Harvard Business Review

    More Marketers Disapprove of Omnicom Acquiring IPG Than Approve | AdWeek

    3 Main Reasons Why Big Technology Projects Fail – & Why Many Companies Should Just Never Do Them | Forbes

    The Merger Mystery: Why Spend Ever More on Mergers When so Many Fail? by Geoff Meeks and J. Gay Meeks

    Most new products fail: Implicit sensory testing can help beat the odds | Food Navigator Europe

  • Japan Re-Emerges + more things

    Japan Re-Emerges

    Japan Re-Emerges is Ulrike Schaede’s riposte to the neo-liberalist dogma that Japan is done. Since the bubble era finished, corporate Japan has been reinventing itself and building blue ocean strategies to stand up and out against the rise of China and South Korea. Schade has turned this journey into a book, Japan Re-Emerges. This interview was conducted at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan.

    Going back to neo-liberal doctrine, Japan Re-Emerges offers a way out of the terminal societal and economic death role that many middle powers like the United Kingdom and Germany are currently undergoing – if they have the leadership who can make it happen. I’ll let you know how I get on with Schade’s book.

    The Detroit of Asia

    Thailand earned its name as the Detroit of Asia thanks to factories assembling vehicles like the Toyota Hi-lux and manufacturing a wide range of car parts. Nikkei put together a film on how Chinese electric vehicle makers have entered Thailand poaching staff, expertise and market share from Japanese manufacturers representing an existential risk of non-Chinese businesses and threatening how Japan Re-emerges.

    Futurama

    General Motors was a large conglomerate in the 1960s. This seems to be based on footage made at the New York World Fair of 1964/65. This Futurama exhibition was a homage to a similar one done at the 1939 world fair. The themes of the exhibition at the time reflect big societal concerns including overpopulation and creating adequate food. The seabed was seen as an equally momentous destination as space. Deep sea exploration was post-war phenomenon and the first submarine that had gone under the north pole did so only six years previously.

    The space and modernist themed architecture feels like it’s from a different universe to our current world. Despite M Hubert King warning about peak oil in 1956, concerns about energy seemed premature at the time when nuclear power seemed to have so many uses and man was actively exploring outer space implying a technological solution was possible for everything. Out of this World as a film builds on the Futurama work done by General Motors as a cohesive vision of the future. While the Ford Motor Company still uses futurists, General Motors subsequent history is one of missed future opportunities, from the German, Japanese and Korean ‘invasions’, its futuristic EV1 car project to efforts in autonomous driving efforts.

    Cadillac racing

    At first I thought that the idea of a Cadillac racing programme was an oxymoron. As a European my idea of a Cadillac is the black armoured land barge that ferries the US president around, or its historic civilian equivalents that represented mid-century luxury prior to the German invasion of the U.S. car market. So I was curious when I came across No Perfect Formula.

    2009 Cadillac Presidential Limousine

    What was more interesting about this film for me was that it was part of a wider trend. While Liberty Media’s Drive To Survive series looked to bolster its Formula One motorsports franchise, manufacturers like Cadillac and Porsche have been producing their own feature-length content and publishing it on YouTube – disintermediating brand partnership type deals with the likes of Netflix or Amazon Prime in favour of YouTube. This makes sense when one thinks about YouTube in terms of raw reach.

    Where I think it gets more interesting is what is says about the value of the latent endorsement of a partner media brand and what this will mean for the likes of BBC Worldwide and non-subscriber revenue streams for streaming platforms.

  • 2024 – that was twenty twenty four

    2024 introduction


    This retrospective look at 2024 was inspired by a post from 2023. I reflected on the year’s events, with conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, and numerous elections worldwide.

    Generative AI and cryptocurrency sectors dominated the tech scene. The Farfetch-Coupang deal highlighted the influence of top luxury brands, while Richemont became a speculative takeover target.

    L Catterton’s strategy of acquiring undervalued brands continued in 2024.

    GLP-1 weight management medications trended in healthcare, with tirzepatide as a focus. Advertising saw a downturn in 2023, but a positive outlook was forecasted for 2024 by the IPA Bellwether report.

    January 2024

    IP

    2024 marked the first iteration of Mickey Mouse, known as Steamboat Willie, entered the public domain. Copyright protection had been extended for 95 years due to political pressure from the media industry. Modern variants of Mickey Mouse remain protected.

    Just in time for generative AI to conjure up new variations.

    Florida bypassed intellectual property-based pricing by importing prescription drugs from Canada to reduce costs.

    Mastermind?

    In the trial of British citizen Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong, the prosecution alleged he orchestrated the 2019 protests, overlooking longstanding social issues highlighted by the Beijing liaison office. Lai’s Next Media and Apple Daily, sparked controversy akin to the Daily Star in the UK, but weren’t a counter-revolution.

    If Mr Lai is the figurehead of the Hong Kong protests, it implied fragility within the Chinese state. Committing crimes like sedition and colluding with a foreign power doesn’t require being a mastermind.

    Data Element – X

    China unveils a three-year ‘Data Element – X‘ plan from 2024 to 2026, anticipating a 20% annual growth in data-related sectors—four times the current economic growth rate. Data Element X encompasses various industries and technologies, including machine learning, data processing, big data, databases, data gathering, digital transformation, smart cities, digital twins, cloud computing, and metaverse services. This initiative is poised to gain increasing prominence in international business and policy circles over time.

    Luxury inclusiveness

    LVMH bolstered its watch division, appointing Frédéric Arnault to oversee Hublot, TAG Heuer, and Zenith. Loewe experienced a surge in momentum, highlighted by a campaign featuring veteran actress Dame Maggie Smith and signed Jamie Dornan as a global ambassador for 2024, likely making it the most inclusive luxury campaign of 2024.

    loewe
    Loewe

    Watches of Switzerland saw a decline following a profit warning, there was inadequate forward guidance despite the decline in the luxury watch secondary market since mid-2021. Highsnobiety announced its selection of new luxury brands for 2024.

    new luxury

    January 2024 in marketing and adjacent areas

    The month began slowly, with many decision-makers out of office until January 15th. Byron Sharp published a paper “The Market-Based Assets Theory of Brand Competition” in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, challenging classical marketing methodologies of segmentation and targeting. Despite speculation about the demise of CMOs, research suggested it won’t happen yet.

    WPP consolidated major PR brands H&K and BCW, leading to significant job consolidation, particularly in finance and HR. The rebranded business Burson signifies a departure from WPP’s usual naming conventions. The restructuring is expected to impact Europe and Asia-Pacific the most. Provoke Media provided insight. (Disclosure: I previously worked with Corey duBrowa at WE; and later at Burson-Marsteller & Colgate’s Red Fuse agency.)

    CES 2024 expanded beyond consumer electronics, featuring products targeting enterprises. Notable highlights included logistics robots, vehicle microchips, and device operating systems. L’Oreal’s demonstration of 3D printed lipsticks marked a shift towards disrupting manufacturing, and their keynote marked a historic moment for beauty companies at CES.

    Health was a key focus at the 2024 show, but more intriguing developments unfolded at JP Morgan’s Health Care Conference in San Francisco. CES organizers excel in gathering research on consumer electronics and technology, with one slide from their presentation catching my attention this year.

    CES_Tech Trends To Watch 2024

    The slide examines US consumer technology spending, specifically focusing on software and services. Entertainment content continues to dominate, reminiscent of the 1970s, while retailers and e-tailers still profit from high-margin extended warranties like AppleCare. In contrast, digital health services barely register on the chart.

    AI is as ubiquitous at CES 2024 as MSG on my favourite Japanese instant noodles.

    Amazon implemented job cuts, particularly affecting its media divisions such as Prime Video, Twitch, and MGM, amidst industry-wide consolidation efforts. Additionally, Amazon Prime Video introduced an extra fee for ad-free viewing. Technology layoffs continue into 2024, focusing on realignment around AI, impacting companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and SAP.

    According to Davos attendees I know, finance professionals discussed AI-powered trading models, prompting nightmares about Greg Secker becoming Goldman Sachs’ CEO.

    AI-based trading models, previously reliant on fractal theory and the assumption of market organicity akin to Gaia theory, have gained traction. The work of one team was celebrated in Thomas A. Bass’ book “The Predictors,” yet risks remain, illustrated by Nassim Taleb’s Black Swan Concept and the Long-Term Capital Management failure.

    Japanese novelist Rie Kudan discussed her use of AI in her life and writing.

    Stanley’s insulated tumblers gained popularity, with secondary markets like StockX seeing considerable mark-ups. The maximum price paid on StockX was £290.

    stanley

    The Mac turns 40.

    Despite the Philippines’ healthy economic growth forecast of 6% in 2024, CNN Philippines shut down all channels: broadcast, mobile, and online.

    In other news

    During the 2024 New Year period, Japan faced a strong earthquake and a two-plane accident. Fortunately, passengers on one plane escaped without serious injury. In 2024, the UK lost veteran DJ Annie Nightingale, aged 83, known for championing new music, particularly various dance music genres stemming from house music, the warehouse scene, and digital production.

    Annie Nightingale

    The US SEC approves the first cryptocurrency-based ETFs, while Korean Telecom (KT) shut down its NFT platform.

    In Taiwan, Lai Ching-te and the DPP win the election but lack a parliamentary majority.

    Unusual cold weather in the middle of the month was followed by strong winds, caused a large metal wheeled bin to roll down my road.

    In Russia, a law is passed claiming territory previously held by Russia, including Alaska. Meanwhile, the UK considered introducing conscription due to tensions with Russia, but survey respondents express reluctance towards it.

    An FT opinion piece discussed how views among young cohorts have diverged between progressive politics and conservatism, with implications for various political and social issues. Rob Henderson called it the ‘gender equality paradox‘ based on findings in academic research in psychology.

    gender split
    Financial Times

    This highlighted that ‘generations‘ as a marketing concept is a delusion. Richard Reeves’ book “Of Boys And Men” and research by the American Institute of Boys & Men explore reasons for men’s divergent political views from women.

    How January 2024 memed?

    UK quiz show University Challenge went viral after host Amol Rajon responded to a contestant’s answer with, “I can’t accept Drum & Bass. We need Jungle, I’m afraid.” This led to various remixes.

    February 2024

    February 2024 saw the transition in the lunar calendar from the year of the rabbit to the year of the dragon. Flickr turned 20 years old.

    Apple starts taking orders for the VisionPro. The Vision Pro generates lots of reviews. The general consensus was interesting, but not ready for consumer adoption and no one is clear what its ‘killer app’ is. It has this in common with the Mac’s launch some four decades earlier. We forget now that the Mac was seen by IT people as a toy. It didn’t have a ‘use case’ until Adobe and Apple partnered on the LaserWriter PostScript-powered laser printer. This allowed Aldus Software’ PageMaker desktop publishing software to print its designs.

    The iPhone had a similar problem when launched, but the second generation had the app eco-system which sold the iPhone.

    Things I Like: Newton eMate 300
    Apple Newton eMate 300

    The first generation Vision Pro may be a future success, or an interesting diversion like the Apple Cube or the eMate. This explains why there was a high initial return rate of Vision Pro headsets.

    Cube

    nVidia’s quarterly result exceeded expectations by a large margin and the share price went up 17% overnight to 35x earnings. It felt like a bubble, here’s what Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons had to say:

    nVidia’s right place, right time Perfect Storm. nVIDIA’s meteoric rise over the past year was triggered by OpenAI’s ChatGPT launch on November 30, 2022. Once word got out it was using 10,000 nVIDIA GPUs, the flood gates burst open. In a deluge of hope, hype and hysteria, not seen since the late 1990’s Internet driven Dot-com boom, AI is up front and center of every firm’s ambition with stock market investors swooning at dreams of an AI-overlord future. nVIDIA deserves its place in the sun and the chip industry thrives on legendary moments like these. Leaving aside the hype, AI will eventually make current products better and smarter, and enable new products to be build that were previously impossible, it’s what the chip industry does best, but no chip market has ever taken off based on a US$40,000 IC!

    Chinese government contractor I-S00N was hacked and a trawl of data dumped on Github like Mosseck Fonseca. It showed the asymmetry of costs between hacking and being hacked.

    A US Senate hearing spotlights online platforms’ harm to children felt different. Social media platforms faced severe criticism, with Mark Zuckerberg offering apologies. TikTok’s responses sparked debate on the hearings’ undertones, contrasting with Meta’s approach.

    Good news for the Hong Kong economy ahead of lunar new year, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase in December. However, the rise masked challenges, including the popularity of warehouse shopping in Shenzhen, leading to less spent in Hong Kong. Retailers are grappling with the recent growth of Hong Kong’s e-commerce sector. Despite this, excitement was dampened by a failed attempt at ‘tentpole events,’ as an exhibition soccer match with Inter Miami saw the team’s stars benched. The match, organised by Tatler Asia, raises more questions than answers.

    Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee likely had a better time than Labour Party politician David Lammy, who faced criticism from Indian business elites during a business trip to India over London’s violent Rolex robberies.

    Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman brought his deflating rubber ducks art installation to Kaohsiung port in Taiwan this month.

    Starbucks partnered with Gopuff for late-night coffee deliveries, challenging competitors like Shell filling stations and McDonald’s McCafe.

    Novo Nordisk acquired another pharmaceutical company to grow Wegovy production, potentially affecting future price reductions.

    Tod’s planned to go private in a deal with L Catterton, maintaining majority ownership with the Della Valle family and minority stakes for LVMH. This followed on from the L Catterton deal to take Birkenstock private and then relist at a much higher valuation.

    Adidas and Nike shift away from scarcity models for sneakers, signalling a peak in the secondary market.

    China aimed to revive its housing sector and economy with a cut in home borrowing rates over five years.

    Marketing and adjacent areas

    The Guardian used ‘dadcast’ to describe a podcast perceived as privileged and exhibiting toxic masculinity. There’s speculation about jealousy towards profitable podcasts catering to middle-aged men’s interests. Some noted on LinkedIn that ‘Dad’ is increasingly used in mainstream media as a disparaging term.

    Vice Media undergoes significant layoffs, prompting reflections from the CYBER podcast team on the company’s decline. Amazon reports advertising revenue exceeding 8 percent in Q4 2023, largely at Google’s expense.

    Amazon’s success is attributed to AWS facilitating data collaboration for media buys and Prime Video’s brand-building content. However, a study from Australia finds that brands shifting from linear TV to video on demand lose market share due to ineffective media planning.

    The “bad neighborhood” effect may contribute to poor YouTube performance, with many ads promoting low-quality products.

    Metalheadz celebrates its 30th anniversary with a collaboration with Stüssy. Burberry’s Harrods takeover got attention for dressing the doormen in ‘knight blue’ check.

    Burberry knight blue

    i-D magazine shifted direction, suspending print and online publication but continuing daily updates on social media as part of a new business model and editorial leadership. This move reflected an evolving landscape of fashion publishing.

    Condé Nast parted ways with Vogue China editor Margaret Zhang. Zhang’s background in translating Chinese youth culture for Western audiences in corporate settings may not have prepared her for leading a large editorial team profitably, especially in the digital age. Her lack of immersion in Chinese culture and experiences of online harassment didn’t help.

    Despite challenges, Zhang initiated notable projects such as a mentoring scheme for Chinese designers. Luxury brands like LVMH explored product placement and financing Hollywood projects, tapping into the growing demand for high-end wardrobe in popular shows.

    Taylor Swift’s impact on the Super Bowl contrasted with lacklustre advertisements during the event, while Lunar New Year ads felt safer than usual. Jollibee, a Filipino fast-food chain, succeeded on Valentine’s Day with its film “My Kwentong Valentine’s Day: 30 Dates,” showcasing its connection with customers through relatable storytelling.

    Ring surprised customers with a 43% increase in subscription fees, from £34.99 to £49.99 per device per year for basic plan users, effective March 2024. The price hike sparked outrage among customers, leading to cancellations and tips on locking-in better deals for longer.

    Rabbit AI, touted as the standout product of CES 2024, resorted to static ads on YouTube to boost pre-orders. This approach raised doubts about whether extensive global media coverage and event hype resulted in a substantial waiting list.

    Seeing a lot of these Rabbit pre-order ad spots

    Humane AI, which launched in 2023, announced a delay in shipping their AI personal assistant. Meanwhile, the BBC updates its approach to using generative AI responsibly, a process evolving since October last year when initial principles were established. Kara Swisher published Burn Book; her memoir as a tech journalist, which is part-therapy, part dot-com boom to late state capitalism evolution of Silicon Valley. More in my review here.

    Unbeknownst to many, the BBC has a history of innovation, evidenced by creations like the LS3/5A loudspeaker design originating from a 1972 BBC research paper. Over the years, the BBC has adopted a ‘co-pilot’ approach to language translation for its World Service, utilizing a service called Frank, initially funded under the EU GoURMET programme.

    The recent BBC update focused on enhancing content propagation through different formats and more personalized marketing, raising concerns about reducing a common truth across diverse audiences and potentially exacerbating societal polarization.

    In other news, The Body Shop appointed administrators, drawing attention to its challenges since its acquisition by L’Oreal.

    The power of design

    Europe doesn’t get to enjoy the bold design of the 2024 Lexus GX, which combines luxury with a rugged Tonka toy aesthetic, surpassing even Mercedes’ G-Wagen.

    YouTube’s top car reviewer, Doug DeMuro, likened the GX’s impact to that of a Lamborghini Countach.

    London Fashion Week was either hybrid or reminiscent of past eras, lasting just four days. Highsnobiety hosted events under the ‘Not in London‘ banner. London Fashion Week was 40 this year, as was UK magazine Gay Times, which underwent a process of reinvention as it slips into middle age.

    Tate & Lyle updated designs for its Golden Syrup on plastic packaging and extensions, but not on its traditional tin.

    How February 2024 memed?

    Let’s steer clear of the conspiracy theories about Taylor Swift. Instead, consider the “AI-two step,” a term I got via Antony Mayfield. It describes the process of job destruction in knowledge worker sectors through the implementation of AI-enabled software: step one involves introducing these processes, followed by step two: gradual layoffs to avoid media attention. This phenomenon parallels last year’s “Patagonia vest recession.”

    March 2024

    March began with cold, rainy weather as I freelanced at PRECISIONeffect. In Rochdale, a veteran politician won the election, known for anti-Israel and pro-Russia views. The Washington Post obtained documents revealing Russian misinformation campaigns. The United States and the Jordanian air force airdropped food aid along the Gaza Strip coast after land delivery resulted in 100 deaths. Train fares increased, causing frustration with Avanti West Coast cancellations. Taylor Swift concerts were discussed for their geopolitical impact. President Biden addressed gender inequality in medical research, and Chalmers University in Sweden unveiled a computer model predicting 90% of lymphatic cancer cases.

    Luxury

    Omega ran a teaser campaign that harks back to its long association with the NASA Silver Snoopy award and the Speedmaster range of chronograph watches. The timing of this release was about getting ahead of the bevy of new products launched at Watches & Wonders trade show. It was yet another Swatch homage to the Omega Speedmaster, in white plastic and an animated Snoopy, which is like Gordon Ramsay shilling for Pepperami.

    snoopy
    Omega

    Bangkok, Thailand, now a hub of Asian pop culture, boasts local artists rivalling former Cantopop and K-pop stars in Southeast Asia. Louis Vuitton’s The Place in Bangkok offers a unique retail experience combining exhibition, immersive experience, restaurant, and luxury store.

    Trade magazine Business of Fashion and Bloomberg called out LVMH quiet luxury brand Loro Piana over exploitation of indigenous people in Peru.

    “In New York, Milan or London, the fashion house Loro Piana sells a vicuña sweater for about $9,000. Barrientos’ Indigenous community of Lucanas, whose only customer is Loro Piana, receives about $280 for an equivalent amount of fiber. That doesn’t leave enough to pay Barrientos, whose village expects her to work as a volunteer.”

    Marcelo Rochabrun for Bloomberg

    Matchesfashion.com went into administration, three months it was bought as a turnaround target. This is the latest in a number of distressed multi-label boutiques. Farfetch was sold out Coupang at the end of 2023.

    Marketing and related areas

    My blog renaissance chambara turned 20 years old on March 13, 2024, and the stone tablets of advertising planning were made 50 years ago. BBH did a nice essay on the original JWT London planning guide here. It was 35 years since De La Soul released their iconic first album 3 Foot High and Rising – now remastered with bonus unreleased tracks.

    De La Soul
    De La Soul by DeShawn Craddock

    Remember when Adidas parted ways with Kanye West (back in 2022)? Well, Adidas waited until March to sell the last tranche of shoes from the Yeezy range. Later on, they announced their first net loss since 1992. The resurgence of interest in the Gazelle and Samba shoes through spring and summer last year were not enough to plug the gap. Adidas hopes that China will drive double digit growth, though the Chinese market can be volatile and there are more homegrown and foreign brands to compete with. In the meantime, pain was piled on pain, with the German football association opting to go with Nike rather than Adidas from 2027.

    The US Congress passed a law to force Bytedance to sell TikTok, or, face a ban from US app stores within six months. ‘The TikTok Ban‘ – so TikTok had user deluge politicians with calls. The advertising world went into a tizzy about THE TIKTOK BAN.

    Less commented on was LinkedIn’s ability to embed video in posts like this, or create hyperlinks within articles using its editing functions became broken. Hence the move to images and writing this offline and cut-and-pasting back in which at least kept hyperlinks.

    What was almost as important, but got a lot less coverage was the news that Meta was finally going to zuck CrowdTangle with a shutdown due in August this year. NewsWhip tried to step into the breach left by the demise of Crowdtangle.

    The continued inflation pressuring low income households was good news for instant noodles. According to the FT, their long shelf life made them a hedge against inflation. Lower income customers bought instant noodles to make ends meet, Nestlé was pressured by ESG investors to pivot towards healthier foods.

    Maggi logo
    Nestlé

    Nestlé brand Maggi – is one of Asia’s most popular instant noodle, soups and seasonings, which is likely to fall foul of the ESG push.

    CNN estimated that the Bud Light influencer marketing campaign with Dylan Mulvaney cost $1.38 billion in revenue terms through 2023. In the aftermath of the Bud Light backlash, AB InBev’s share of the US beer market declined by 5.2 percentage points in the second quarter, dropping to 36.9%. By February, the company had closed the deficit from its May peak by 1.2 percentage points, with a steady rate of ground gained every three or four weeks. However, the expenditure required to close this gap remains undisclosed.

    Unilever announced the spin-off of its ice cream brands, framing it as a shift towards higher-performing brands. It’s surprising that Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s weren’t considered high-performing, suggesting a macro view on categories. Combining them with the Heart brands’ ice creams made sense from a supply chain and distribution perspective, possibly driving the decision.

    Other news

    Iris Apfel at O Cinema Miami Beach to present IRIS, by Albert Maysles

    Iris Apfel, known in fashion and textiles for decades, passed away at the age of 102. She began her career writing for WWD (Women’s Wear Daily) before founding Old World Weavers Inc., which reproduced textiles from the past for restoration projects. Apfel managed the business for nearly five decades before retiring in 1992. Her fame as a socialite grew from her client base, and soared after her retirement. Her unique style, influenced by five decades of travel, garnered attention, leading to the publication of her autobiography and representation by IMG.

    We also lost science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, author of True Names – a predictor of the modern internet. David Brin wrote a poignant tribute to Vinge. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman died aged 90.

    Joseph E. Chandler
    Joseph E. Chandler by Kerri Chandler

    The term “house music legend” has been used casually, but it aptly describes veteran New York DJ/producer Kerri Chandler. In honour of his father Joseph E. Chandler, a disco-era DJ who influenced him, Chandler released 73 tracks for free download. His father would have turned 73 had he lived.

    Karl Wallinger, frontman of World Party, has passed away. He is best known for his song “She’s The One,” famously covered by Robbie Williams.

    How March 2024 memed?

    The meme likely to define the year, akin to last year’s Patagonia vest recession, was coined by Scott Galloway: Corporate Ozemic. It encapsulates businesses’ adoption of LLM-based services to automate workflows and reduce staff. Klarna, a pay-later business, served as a poster child, admitting to displacing 700 former employees.

    At SXSW, there was audience pushback against ‘AI’, a phenomenon not seen during the dot com boom. Big tech needed to invest heavily in political campaigns, lobbyists, PR firms, and lawyers.

    The first photo of Princess Kate since her surgery was withdrawn by Associated Press for manipulation that didn’t meet their standards. Speculation ensued, leading to a popular meme identified by StickyBeak. Later a BBC video disclosed her cancer treatment.

    Kate Middleton's family picture memeing

    April 2024

    April started as a bank holiday in the UK and Europe. The global economy has very mixed data. In the UK, the NHS looked to roll out insulin pumps to a lot of people with type 1 diabetes. Google introduced its medicine-specific large language models. Health technology business ZOE lays off a number of staff.

    Luxury

    Industry exhibition Watches and Wonders 2024 saw new timepieces from fashion brands like Chanel and Hermés alongside watch-makers like IWC and Rolex. Rolex’ gold Deepsea is the most conspicuous luxury item that I have seen to date. It’s a sold wedge of gold, ceramic and titanium.

    As a tool watch, the Deepsea is a ridiculously large slab of stainless steel. In gold it became surreal and garish due to its scale. Gold has very different physical properties to stainless steel, which is why key structural parts are having to be made from titanium and ceramics. It weighed in at 397 grams, or the equivalent of wearing two large iPhone 15 Pro Max’ on your wrist.

    Gold Sea-Dweller deepsea is quite a statement

    The Deepsea was the antithesis to the growth in women’s watches at the show like a last stand of toxic masculinity embodied in horology. Meanwhile export earnings by LVMH, were larger than the whole of France’s agricultural sector. Earth Day happens across LinkedIn. The best thing I read was the pointed critique why Vogue Business didn’t cover it.

    No brand is doing enough to warrant a celebration of its impact on the planet.

    Rachel Cernansky, Vogue Business

    Marketing and related areas

    JP Morgan announced a new advertising venture utilising Chase customer spending data. It was unclear whether this mirrors the brand partnership agreements like those of Amex, or if it entails a more programmatic approach.

    An investigation of Forbes alleged that the publication was selling premium priced online advertising inventory on ‘spammy’ sub-domain for seven years. This raised yet more questions about the wisdom of using online media.

    Hootsuite acquired TalkWalker; adding social media listening to its publishing and reporting capabilities. Meta’s Threads announces an intention to provide a Threads API in June and published developer documentation.

    Japan’s LDP uses an AI-generated slogan for its election campaign. Economic revitalisation: Providing tangible results. – was chosen from 500 options written by copywriters and AI respectively.

    Online and tech

    Google Podcasts is shutdown, more on the Google product death march here. Google leaked Apple’s plans for RCS support. Apple launched the first major update to VisionOS allowing for shared experiences. It was ideal for education or training scenarios. eBay UK went free-to-sell for individual sales of pre-used fashion, taking Depop head-on. News-focused Twitter alternative Post.news announced plans to shut down over the next few weeks. Humane AI’s pin device not well received by reviewers despite impressive engineering.

    Other news

    Pharrell Williams launched a new album called Black Yacht Rock, while creative director at Louis Vuitton. It was my album of 2024.

    https://flic.kr/p/2pJAup9

    Hong Kong’s ban on many single-use plastics comes into force, with criticism from retail and hospitality sectors. 1990s skate brand iPath comes back from the dead.

    How April 2024 memed?

    Probably the biggest story online was how Rishi Sunak wore a box fresh pair of Adidas Samba soccer training shoes to an interview and went viral online. Sunak later apologised for wearing the shoes, but the style damage was considered to be done already for Adidas (at least in the UK).

    Rishi Sunak MP
    Rishi Sunak

    May 2024

    The end of April and beginning of May was uncharacteristically cool and wet. We had an impressively loud thunder storm. Universities in the US and Europe cleared out campuses occupied in protest at the Palestinian cause. This had a ‘Streisand effect’ like impact, internationalising the protests. Novo Nordisk looks for even further uses for semaglutide – looking at alcohol use and liver damage along with a trial currently running looking at potential benefits with regards Alzheimers.

    For months previously, the political discourse I heard around me was that we need change. Sunak needs to go. Sunak announced a July 4th election with just six weeks of campaigning and most of the amateur pundits I knew looked as if they had been on the wrong side of a Power Slap championship match.

    Luxury news

    Supreme
    Stan Wiecher

    Premium priced streetwear brand Supreme turns 30, but it’s not all good news as Vogue Business claimed Stüssy’s drops are more popular than those by the younger upstart. Synthetic diamonds had a moment for a while in the US jewellery trade. But now that Danish jewellery brand Pandora has succeeded with synthetic diamonds it feels like global mainstream sales are just around the corner.

    TAG Heuer teamed with Kith and brings back the Formula 1 at the 2024 Miami formula one Grand Prix race. It is a watch that sits somewhere between a scuba Swatch and the Luminox dive watch.

    Luxury’s involvement in NFTs resulted in Dolce & Gabbana being taken to court over an NFT-related metaverse offering.

    Can two turkeys make an eagle? Balenciaga and Under Armour seemed to think so with their collaboration revealed on social media at the end of May.

    PDD Holdings, the owners of tat merchant Temu and Chinese e-tailing platform Pinduoduo became worth more than China’s Amazon analogue Alibaba. Tough market conditions for luxury and a decline in the consumer relevance of TMall vs. Pinduoduo may be partly responsible for this.

    Marketing, media and advertising news

    ZAK published a report on how different cultures are having a global influence. It tells a nice story that conceals a layer of complexity. For instance, Hallyu has been an overnight success, the best part of four decades in the making with the sales of international dramas and films. I do like their model on brand partnerships.

    It was lovely to see a project that my former colleague Rohit worked on had won a bronze award at the New York Festivals Health Awards for a film that was made to explain a key concept that differentiated the client’s vaccine.

    Marketers and long-time Apple customers complain about Apple’s crush! advertisement. YouTube followed Apple’s lead in censorship in Hong Kong, following a Hong Kong court ruling banning protest anthem ‘Glory to Hong Kong‘ from appearing online. Unlike YouTube, Apple didn’t need a court order to ban HKmap back in 2019 during the citywide protests.

    Nestlé launched its Vital Pursuit range in the US. This is a range of high-fibre, high protein foods with calorie-controlled portions aimed at consumers using weight loss medications based on GLP-1. Kao expanded its ambition for ESG, as Unilever went in the opposite direction.

    media spend

    WARC research predicted that Meta advertising will imminently equal or even surpass global linear television. This doesn’t include connected television, or indicate that Meta advertising has comparable brand building effectiveness to linear television. It also doesn’t include the wide variance in customer base. Meta has enjoyed a large amount of growth from China based direct-to-consumer e-tailers and apps like Temu and Shein.

    Online media powerhouse LADBible expands its commercial footprint to cover south east Asia and Hong Kong through partner Val Morgan Digital. And the London Evening Standard stops publishing on a daily basis, moving to a weekly format thanks to changes in working amongst Londoners.

    Other news

    _DSF8978

    We lost Tony O’Reilly this month. O’Reilly was Richard Branson-like figure in Ireland. He was famous for creating Kerrygold dairy products way back in 1968. He also negotiated a distribution deal for Erin Foods with Heinz and ended up running Heinz up until 2000.

    Film executive Roger Corman died. Corman’s impact on Hollywood was pervasive. He wrote, directed and produced cult classic films in his own right. He fostered talent that went on to great things and distributed important foreign films from French new wave directors to Akira Kurosawa.

    Technology news

    Apple continued to suffer from depressed sales in China and launches new iPad models for the first time in two years. OpenAI totally did not copy Scarlett Johansson’s voice in a creepy homage to the Spike Jonze film Her. As The Atlantic wrote at the time:

    The Scarlett Johansson debacle is a microcosm of AI’s raw deal: It’s happening, and you can’t stop it.

    OpenAI Just Gave Away the Entire Game – The Atlantic

    This is important not only from a technology point of view, but from the mindset of systemic sociopathy had become pervasive in Silicon Valley. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs thought generative AI will eventually boost GDP and productivity.

    Key details about how Google search works was leaked and poured over by search marketers and the media.

    Spotify ended support for its Car Thing device and offering refunds to consumers.

    How May 2024 memes?

    Kendrick Lamar // Melkweg Amsterdam

    Kendrick Lamar and Drake had a running feud. Lamar made allegations of Drake having a secret child and alleged that Drake slept with minors. A straw poll of people I know, seemed to show that on balance they were team ‘Kenny’.

    June 2024

    May 2024 ended in a similar manner to the way it had started with blustery showers, though we did get a bit of sunshine in between. I had worked through the end of April and May on a project for GREY / TANK Worldwide. It was a great experience working with GREY team members based in Copenhagen, Port Elizabeth and Mumbai, alongside a TANK team based in London.

    We went into June 2024 with a UK general election hanging over us with voting due on July 4, 2024. Labour party candidates only finalised selection on 4 June 2024. IPSOS provided some of the best voter intent data.

    It’s hard to communicate how little enthusiasm there was for the general election. The news agenda seldom touched on the election, but was captured by gambling related scandals that embarrassed both the Conservatives and Labour.

    ITV hosted one of the worst formatted events I have seen for a television electoral debates.

    The 45-second answer format allowed for little more than formulated soundbites rather than a nuanced informed debate. Neither candidate impressed. The 41st edition of British Social Attitudes (BSA) report, published by the National Centre for Social Research revealed a lack of confidence in UK’s system government and its politicians – which meant that all parties had an uphill battle ahead of them.

    In Hong Kong, the authorities used Article 23 for the first time to arrest and charge seven people. This seemed to be an action to pre-empt any commemoration of the June 4th protest movement and subsequent Tiananmen crackdown. Among them was barrister Chow Hang-tung, who was already facing a possible 10-year prison sentence under the 2020 National Security law.

    Tianamen Candlelight Vigil 2015
    Tianamen Candlelight Vigil 2015 – VeryBusyPeople

    Chow faced an additional seven years in prison for inciting “hatred and distrust of the central government, the Hong Kong government and the judiciary” via social media.

    All of this added additional complexity for Meta and Google in the territory and was at odds with Hong Kong government efforts to reignite its past status as Asia’s ‘world city’ through tourism and inbound investment. Cathay Pacific was pressured by the government to focus more on Middle East destinations.

    Luxury

    Karl Lagerfeld prodigy Virginie Viard left Chanel. Chanel had been commercially successful under Viard. Her departure was the final break with the Karl Lagerfeld legacy. Fendi announce their own range of in-house manufactured perfumes, selling for a cool £300 each.

    OTB announced it is to sell NFC tagged items that would be verified via Aura blockchain. This will is rolled out in the fall / winter collections of Jil Sander, Maison Margiela and Marni. Expect this to become commonplace as European Union digital passport rules come into force.

    LVMH buys L’Épée 1839 – who make decorative clocks and kinetic artworks. L’Épée 1839 is stocked in luxury jewellers like Pagnell and Bucherer. Speculation re-emerged about a LVMH acquisition of Richemont.

    Frasers acquired multi-brand online boutique Coggles from THG.

    A number of western luxury brands closed their Tmall stores (AMBUSH, NYX Professional Makeup, Mark Jacobs Fragrances). Commentators point out that the cost of running and promoting a store on Tmall had got too expensive.

    Balenciaga created a haute couture dress that is designed to unravel after its first wear. It’s an ocean of nylon mesh that sparked concerns about luxury ‘fast fashion’.

    Marketing, media and advertising news

    Mainland Chinese restaurant and café brands LMM Lemon Tea 柠濛濛, Western Hunan fast-casual chain Luobo Xiangnan 萝卜向南, Takoyaki chain Gulugulu 咕噜丸子屋, and BBQ brand Xita Laotaitai 西塔老太太 shut their Hong Kong stores. An increase in Hong Kongers going to Shenzhen due to the strong US dollar (which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to vs. the yuan) and a lack of tourists are thought to be partly to blame.

    Spotify allegedly used audiobook bundling as a way to reduce payments to publishers and songwriters. ChiefMartec’s 2024 landscape of marketing technology finds that the amount of products has now grown by over a quarter to over 14,100 and claims that there are over 400,000 marketing agencies around the world. All of this is played out as marketing platforms from Amazon, Bytedance, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet have steadily consolidated greater share of marketing spend.

    The long-running discussions between Skydance and National Amusements which held the fate of Paramount Pictures in the balance were stopped. Discussions had been ongoing since the end of 2023.

    The UK general election campaign was mischaracterised in the media as ‘the first TikTok election‘. According to GWI, the biggest platforms for political content in the UK were X (21%), YouTube (20%), and Facebook (18%). Labour had outspent the Conservatives on advertising prior to legal restrictions kicking in; but Conservative posts seem to have got the most impressions for their money.

    Harley-Davidson took UK retailer Next to court over trademark infringement on clothing design. Vodafone’s The Nation’s Network creative work starts to appear. The insight tried to address the very human truth of wider feelings of disconnection in the general public. However, given that Vodafone had been trying to consolidate its network with Three UK, the tagline seemed disingenuous to some observers. Why would Vodafone need to merge with Three if it was already the nation’s network?

    Design newsletter Sidebar retired (at least for a while), 12 years and the cost of running a daily newsletter hitting 90,000 subscribers took its toll. All of which makes Dave Farber’s Interesting People list seem even more remarkable. At the time, Interesting People had been running since May 1993.

    WPP’s consolidation of brands continued with Burson .

    The New York Times partnered with grocery delivery service Instacart on shoppable recipes. This was not only an opportunity for quality media, but a threat to the likes of Fresh Direct and other DTC meal kit companies.

    Defunct radio station brand Atlantic 252 returned to the airwaves over 20 years after going off-line. the media pack claimed a 40+ target audience with whom the brand has some recognition.

    Chinese brands were prominent sponsors of the UEFA Euros 2024: Hisense, Ant Group, Vivo, BYD, and AliExpress. Cannes festival of advertising saw a campaign that I was involved with shortlisted. The film was aimed at healthcare professionals in Greece and the Philippines.

    2024 Cannes festival of advertising had a focus change towards audience enjoyment, while downplayed the focus on purpose. Ad agencies were reassured by platforms like Tiktok and Meta not wanting to squash them and steal their clients.

    It didn’t take long for private equity funded YouTube channels to see an exodus of talent.

    Speculation revolved around IPG agencies R/GA and MullenLowe.

    Other news

    Donald Sutherland

    Donald Sutherland, the offbeat tank commander in Kellys Heroes and arch villain in the Mockingbird film series died at 88.

    Technology news

    Mixed reality business Magic Leap announces a strategic partnership with Google. Magic Leap seemed to be focusing on its optical design, with Google handling software duties. Google got rid of its endless search results page.

    Microsoft announced further layoffs limiting mixed reality plans to existing defence and enterprise contracts. There were also lay-offs in cloud services.

    Raspberry Pi announced a low-power on-device AI option that could work for uses like facial recognition. This represented an opportunity for hobbyists and product designers. It wasn’t as powerful as Intel’s Lunar Lake or Qualcomm’s SnapDragon powered processors.

    Apple WWDC 2024 saw generative AI techniques integrated into the company’s operating systems, applications and software development kits. Apple took steps to do as much work on device as possible and ensure privacy when cloud processing was used. Apple announced that Apple Intelligence related features will not be on EU phones in 2024.

    Japan forced Apple, Microsoft and Google to allow third-party app stores. The EU introduced tariffs on Chinese manufactured electric vehicles and took legal action against the Apple app store and Microsoft Teams.

    Several retailers and FMCG companies came together to call for the QRcode to replace the barcode on products as part of the GS1 standard. As regulatory standards like the EU’s digital product passport regulations come in, the barcode is no longer fit for purpose. Amazon started to compete directly with Temu and Shein.

    Habbo Hotel returned. Illegal movie streaming site Fmovies goes offline. It turned out that the network of sites were run from Vietnam.

    Goldman Sachs published a sobering analysis on generative AI from productivity gains to likely return on investment. This became popularised in July amongst investors and business leaders. It is at odds with Mary Meeker’s assessment of generative AI.

    How June 2024 memed?

    Across both Chinese and western social media, the ‘boyfriend photographer‘ trended. The general consensus was that boyfriends didn’t take the best pictures of their girlfriends for their social media account, at best they were snaps. Girlfriends looking for reciprocal pictures were better photographers.

    Boyfriend photographer meme

    July 2024

    By mid-June it still hadn’t felt like summer had arrived, but silly season had arrived. Surrey police rammed an escaped adolescent cattle. The Conservatives polled as low as 23 percent prior to the general election.

    As June rolled into July, the heat arrived and then went. For polling day we had bright sunshine and a pleasant breeze. Before the rain rolled back. We were well into the middle of July before the heat arrived.

    Advertising and marketing news

    The middle of 2024 saw some high profile interest in M&A activity. Following on from IPG-related news; WPP rebuffed a private equity offer to buy FGS Global. Carlsberg bought Britvic, the UK’s Pepsi bottler and a soft drinks brand in its own right. This will have implications for agencies as Britvic is integrated. Ford brought back the Capri as a mum truck. But the teaser campaign to build hype and ultimately disappoint car enthusiasts was pretty clever. The new 2024 Capri is a badge engineered Volkswagen.

    Luxury

    Private club memberships hit a slump in Hong Kong. Secondary market prices on memberships trade at a 20% discount. Factors include reduction in corporate memberships, less business being carried out in the city, less expats and less of a nightlife orientation for mainland 1000 talents visa holders from the mainland.

    Ford RS200 - Double
    Boreham Motorworks

    Ford partnered up with Boreham Motorworks and announces a continuation / restomod of the RS200 and the mark 1 Escort RS2000. Teenage me would have been very excited at this news. 2024 marked the 40th anniversary of the launch of the Ford RS 200.

    Burberry decided it needed to become more accessible and replaced its CEO. Sunglasses oligopoly EssilorLuxottica bought Supreme from VF Corporation just as the streetwear brand had entered its wilderness period. Formula 1 dandy Lewis Hamilton became a brand ambassador and guest designer for Dior menswear. LVMH brand TAG Heuer became formula 1’s timing partner from the 2025 season, displacing Rolex.

    Giorgio Armani moved out of fashion watches and into the luxury segment with the 11, made by Parmigiani Fleurier. Originally these had been launched as a 200-piece limited edition in 2022, but the advertising seems to indicate an ongoing product now.

    armani x parmigiani

    Virgin Atlantic announced the cancellation of its last far east route; Shanghai finished at the end of October 2024. L Catterton bought into Bicester Village – a UK based luxury outlet mall.

    Media and online

    Twitter rejoins GARM as a move towards increased brand safety needed to start getting advertisers back. Social media network Noplace launched. It is designed to appeal to the nostalgia for better online times circa 2008. The Wall Street Journal fired Hong Kong-based journalist Selina Cheng for being elected to the HKJA ( Hong Kong Journalists Association) – a local professional association. The WSJ approach – espoused support for western values and progressive principles BUT not in China or Hong Kong.

    Apple did a deal with Taboola for its Apple News service. OpenAI launched SearchGPT and Reddit barred a number of major search engines from crawling its service except Google. Over three years after Google planned ‘depreciating’ third party cookies, it took until July 2024 for the company to backtrack on this plan. Apple launched a web version of Apple Maps.

    The IPA Bellwether report indicated continued increase in marketing spending.

    Other news

    Trump

    During the US presidential campaign Donald Trump was shot at. President Biden declared that he wasn’t going to run for a second term. Kamala Harris became the candidate to run against Donald Trump and JD Vance. England went through to the final of the Euros. China’s third plenum signalled a continuation of the Xi administration’s economic approach with little change to take account of domestic conditions.

    90210.jpg
    Shannen Doherty and fellow Beverly Hills 90210 star Luke Perry in happier times.

    Beverly Hills 90210 was ubiquitous on television in the 1990s and its stars became some of the best known faces. One of the most famous, Shannen Doherty died on July 14th.

    Cheng Pei Pei

    We lost Hong Kong film actress Cheng Pei-pei. Cheng was a martial arts star who came up through the Shaw Brothers studio system and made her mark as female protagonist Golden Swallow in Come Drink with Me. Over six decades she appeared in films shot across Asia, America, Australia and Europe. She reached a western audience in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – reprising the wushu skills she’d used in numerous Shaw Brothers films.

    Technology

    Samsung launched a ring (Samsung Galaxy Ring) which monitors health-related data and syncs with the company’s smartphones and watches. Sasan Goodarzi at Intuit fires over 1,000 people for ‘poor performance’ as a big bet on automation. Apple mocked for ‘launching‘ a black Apple HomePod under a different name. Crowdstrike struck out countless enterprise Windows PCs through botched update to security software. On the plus side, it happened on a Friday.

    I was wilfully ignoring the Olympics in Paris, but the sabotage of the high-speed rail system caught my attention. It reminded me of a 2002 attack on the BT network.

    How July 2024 memed?

    Change

    2024 was a year of elections around the world. July 2024 saw two big elections, the general election in the UK and the French national legislature. The UK general election saw a new labour party government headed by Kier Starmer. This ended a 14-year run of conservative governments. In France, president Macron saw a European parliament election and national legislature election which rejected his leadership. It wasn’t a good time to be an incumbent politician.

    240613_Alex-Kier_Starmer-PR0045

    August 2024

    The end of July brought a heatwave. Early August cooled slightly and we had a bit of rain. The hot weather brought a febrile atmosphere to the UK, which resulted in riots.

    The government did a slow drip feed of news about how broken the UK economy is in advance of the autumn budget. The conceit that they didn’t know in advance wore thin according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies.

    nike - winning isnt for everyone

    I did my best to ignore the 2024 Olympics in Paris; but the William Defoe voiced Nike ad broke through. It’s a really nice piece of craft, it divided opinions. I would love to know what communications job was the advert supposed to do? Because only then can we really understand if it was successful or not. Nike would not have been happy with the negative criticism regarding the table tennis bat licking which was seen to be insulting China.

    adidas terrex

    The Nike ad contrasted with the film Adidas did featuring Japanese olympian Nonaka Miho (Japanese names have the family name first).

    But Nike was right winning isn’t for everyone; and their financial results were not winning for shareholders who had a lot of complain about through 2023 and 2024. The UK had a similar problem to Nike, not fulfilling its promise; Labour looked under hood and saw that £20 billion of spending plans were unfunded.

    Luxury

    Chanel launches a smartwatch / earphones combo. Other luxury companies had tried to play in the connected space in the past from an LG / Prada collaboration in the mid to late 2000s to TAG Heuer’s smartphone and smart watch products. Jing Daily, a luxury business publication focused on China finally launched its ‘pro‘ subscription-based tier.

    Marketing

    No sooner had Kelloggs broken into two companies, than Mars purchased Kellanova – the maker of Pringles and Poptarts. The Mars purchase is a bet against the transformation of grocery sales by GLP-1 weight management treatments. Agency consolidation is an area of obvious efficiency gains. Steve Bartlett, the Social Chain and Flight Group founder, had ads banned for Huel and Zoe.

    Generative AI-assisted search engine Perplexity announced plans for advertising before end of 2024.

    Online

    MySpace turned 21 years old. US authorities win an antitrust case against Google.

    TechCrunch Disrupt Europe: Berlin 2013

    France arrested Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov. This broke new ground in an attempt to regulate platforms. Twitter got banned in Brazil. BlueSky added support for video and features to limit dogpiling and hostile quote posts.

    Middle class families in the UK and Ireland disappointed as demand and ticket touts outstripped supply of Oasis reunion tour tickets. I found Creamfields underwhelming.

    Other news

    We lost internet publishing pioneer and journalist Mike Magee. French actor Alain Delon died. He starred in Le Cercle Rouge and La Samourai amongst 90 film appearances and was the face of Dior Eau Sauvage.

    dior
    Alain Delon by Perfums Dior

    Retail legend Myron E. Ullman III died. Ullman started at IBM, but then built a career driving successful retail operations at Macy’s, DFS (Duty-Free Shopping) now part of LVMH, Starbucks and JC Penney.

    Technology

    Google gets rid of the Chromecast, replacing it with a set-top box. Nvidia announced it was using an LLM machine learning model to aid in design of its graphics processing unit (GPU), central processing unit (CPU) and networking chips. Their intent was to speed up design process and increase the pace of chip development.

    IBM shuttered its R&D facility in China. Technology website Anandtech, most famous for its deep thorough reviews of of significant products closed down. Online ad business The Trading Desk was rumoured to be developing a smart TV operating system in order get more advertising revenue and share some of it with TV set brands.

    How August 2024 memed?

    Misinformation

    Cardiff-born Axel Rudakubana attacked a Taylor Swift-themed children’s party in Southport. He was charged with three murders and ten counts of attempted murder. False information on Rudakubana’s background, religion and immigration status spread across social media.

    Thuggery

    This sparked riots in Southport, Rotherham, Hartlepool and Sunderland. A mosque was attacked and at least some of the violence was put down to far right activists. The far right were involved in much of the online discussion of false information. Twitter received much of the blame for being a conduit of the misinformation. The UK government warned social media platforms of their obligations under UK law. The misinformation was repeated in WhatsApp messaging groups, causing one county councillor in Wales to resign his position after spreading false information. The evidence of Russian involvement in the misinformation activity is scant at best. Kier Starmer’s comment about ‘rot deep in the heart‘ of British institutions and politics could equally well be extended to British society.

    A similar attack claimed by the Islamic State that happened in Solingen, Germany didn’t result in Southport-style rioting.

    September 2024

    I spent August in the north and much of the weather I experienced felt more like spring or autumn than summer. This wasn’t just summer showers, but the storm force winds that came with it. The weather seemed appropriate for the tempestuous feel of the United Kingdom at that moment.

    September 1st, the temperature went back up to 27 celsius, with showers and thunderstorms, the torrential rain continued through the week.

    Party conference was somewhat overshadowed by a drip-feed of low-level revelations of donor gifts.

    Business news

    2024 turned out to be an annus horribilis for large German industrial companies. Volkswagen announced a plan to shutter one or more German car plants. The company failed to recognise its sales problems stemmed from multiple issues including vehicle quality, a failure to build hybrid vehicles and poor pricing strategy for purchase vs. leasing. Ex-Bain Consulting executive John Donahue shown the door at Nike – after failure to recover from strategic and tactical decisions were dumpster fires at a time of increased competition from the likes of On Running and Hoka. Donahue’s actions cratered the Nike share price, it rose 10 percent on news of his departure.

    Luxury news

    Charles, Prince of Wales

    Queen Elizabeth passed away two years ago This meant royal warrants, that are perceived as a mark of quality were changed to reflect the King’s views and tastes. Brands where royal warrants were lost, worried about brand impact. Brands that gained a royal warrant, gained some perceived value – but probably won’t have the impact it did when Elizabeth came to the throne.

    Loro Piana and New Balance launched a co-branded version of the 990 v6 shoe. You paid $1,500 for the cobranded shoe, rather than $240 usually charged. The two-speed luxury sector continues into September 2024, with Burberry removed from the FTSE 100.

    gucci
    Gucci

    Gucci got in on the act of having an older muse a la Loewe and with a campaign featuring Debbie Harry. Talking of an older muse, Donald Trump launched a $100,000 gold watch with a Trump branded dial. LVMH sold Off-White, the streetwear brand founded by the late Virgil Abloh.

    Marketing

    UK retailer John Lewis brings back ‘never knowingly undersold’ price promise. ASOS sold Topshop and Topman. Sony announces a free version of Grand Turismo 7 to celebrate 30 years of the PlayStation to be launched at the end of the year. China sees a 50 percent drop in mooncakes sold and threatened to blacklist western brands not using Xinjiang cotton, starting with Calvin Klein. The reasons are partly economic and partly health consumer attitude related as mooncakes are very calorie rich.

    DJ Nigo collaborated with Nike
    Nike

    As Nike lost its CEO, the settlement of a lawsuit between Nike and A Bathing Ape allowed the sports apparel brand to collaborate with BAPE founder and current Kenzo artistic director Nigo.

    Nike x Nigo collaboration
    Nike

    Quote of the month

    The biggest fallacy in marketing is that consumers want more choice, they don’t, they want more confidence in the choice that they make – Professor Scott Galloway on his podcast The Prof G Pod (September 18, 2024).

    Media

    Authorities in the US issued an indictment against Tenet Media for work carried out for state media company Russia Today. US government goes to court with regards Google’s ad tech business.

    Meanwhile GBNews owner Paul Marshall bought The Spectator for a reputed £100 million. The Observer was put up for sale.

    The Fabulous Wonder Twins in "If It Makes You Happy" by Sheryl Crow

    Gracenote’s provided ‘pop-up video’ type trivia for large video platforms. These kind of pop-up facts and reactions are more commonly used on Asian TV programmes in the likes of Japan and South Korea. Hoonigan, the automotive parts, lifestyle and media brand founded by Ken Block filed for bankruptcy with over $1.2 billion in debt due to over-expansion.

    Online

    Twitter still banned in Brazil, fined $900,000 per day by Brazilian courts. TikTok went to court to try and prevent a ban of the platform in the US.

    Other news

    Loewe muse and star of stage and screen Maggie Smith died at the age of 89.

    Technology

    Generative AI company Anthropic launched Claude for Enterprise; which supports enterprise features like SSO (user single sign-on). In what was believed to be a supply chain attack, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkie handsets used across Lebanon and Syria detonated at the same time. Israel was considered the likely culprit.

    Meta Orion AR glasses prototype
    Meta

    Meta demonstrated their Orion prototype AR glasses. Apple updated its smartphone, smartwatch and earbuds product lines. It also updated its operating systems across its TV set-top box range, Mac computers, head sets, mobile devices, tablets and smartwatches. Further personnel departures at Open.AI and consolidation of power within the organisation.

    How September 2024 memed?

    Joy

    Kamala Harris

    Maja Pawinska Sims wrote for Provoke Media about how the US presidential race, to Charli XCX and Taylor Swift had been using the power of joy strategically in terms of their influence campaigns. I recommend going to the article and giving it a read.

    October 2024

    October continued with the damp 2024 feel, with remnants of a hurricane coming across the Atlantic and drenching the country. The UK launches its industrial policy: Invest 2035: the UK’s modern industrial strategy. Hong Kong’s single use plastic ban comes into force.

    Storm Ashley

    Storm Ashley battered the Atlantic coastline of Europe, reaching the west of Ireland first. It trended as a hashtag trended across social media platforms.

    Luxury

    Rolex opens first wholly-owned store in China. This follows a year on from the Bucherer acquisition. Watches of Switzerland purchased Hodinkee, which explained why the watch publisher withdrew its retail offering. On Running launches collection with Loewe – the Cloudtilt collection.

    Louis Vuitton

    LVMH announced poor financial results and uncertain outlook. This was for a few reasons: China’s economic outlook, the strength of the Japanese yen vs. the Chinese yuan. Middle class financial health had declined from 2020 highs.

    2024 marked a 12% drop in sales for the Swiss watch industry. Into this change, Patek Philippe launched their first new range of watches in 25 years. The Cubitus was designed to reach a new generation of watch wearers. It’s a divisive design, GQ collected the positive takes, others like pre-owned watch dealer BQ Watches were less enthusiastic.

    Godfather of streetwear Shawn Stüssy dropped his first collection under his S/Double moniker in a decade. Stüssy had announced his return in July. This first collection was Australia and New Zealand only, done in association with the Hill Brothers who are behind Globe.

    Media

    Meta allows brands to shut down comments on ads. Reuters introduced paid online consumer subscription. WPP warned markets over economic uncertainty going forwards.

    Online

    Twitter allowed in Brazil again, after it paid its fines and blocked banned accounts; Elon Musk also had spent time cosying up to the Russian government. Dutch police arrest people behind Bohemia and Cannabia dark web marketplaces. Roblox alleged to have inflated metrics and become a ‘pedophile hellscape‘ for children. Meanwhile, the UK prosecuted its first person for using generative AI to create child pornography.

    The Internet Archive’s ‘Wayback Machine’ was hacked, responsibility claimed by pro-Palestinian hacktivist group. Content delivery network Cloudflare breaks RSS for many sites across the web. London online car service Addison Lee gets bought and plans to expand to other cities including Liverpool. YouTube rolled out a controllable playback speed across videos. Rather than picking from a number of predefined speeds you now can speed up or slow down using a slider.

    Technology

    Apple made a ‘subtle‘ change to the iPhone’s contact-sharing permissions that make it hard for address book based growth hacking of apps – while still facilitating usage, but at a slower pace. IronNet which was founded by Pentagon veterans as an enterprise security firm filed for bankruptcy. Chinese scientists reportedly used a D-Wave quantum computer to crack AES and RSA and published a paper on it. Amazon refreshed its Kindle range. Apple Intelligence launched but failed to impress partly due to a more intentional, integrated approach and general bugginess.

    How did October 2024 meme?

    Donald Trump
    Anxiety and glee respectively greeted razor fine margins between both Republican and Democrat presidential candidates in the final weeks before the election. There was the bizarro headlines to contend with as well. It all made grimly compelling watching, rather like the Dickie Davis-narrated Mega Crash series of motor racing accidents compilation VHS tapes.

    November 2024

    October ended with an uncharacteristically late storm (Super Typhoon Kong-rey) hit Taiwan causing hundreds of injuries. November started cool and dry, though you could cut the air like butter with the tension surrounding the US election and Rachel Reeves’ first budget. Collin’s Dictionary made ‘brat‘ one of its words of the year killing off the summertime meme. Donald Trump had a decisive win in the US presidential election. Speculation started on what a Trump president would mean across all policy, economic and social areas.

    Luxury

    Loro Piana took over Harrods windows for the Christmas shopping season with its workshop of wonders.

    Marketing

    Broke Ad School closes their website Instagram and LinkedIn presence. Jaguar rebrands, gets slated in The Guardian. I desperately tried to ignore the debate around it. Bayer announced a big single customer view project with Salesforce.com and Alibaba Cloud.

    Media

    The Vatican launches its manga style mascot, designed on their behalf by Tokidoki. Hello Kitty turned 50. Christmas advertising spend rose 7.8% from 2023. The Onion bought InfoWars – the media outlet of Alex Jones. BlueSky saw a boost as Twitter faced an exodus of high profile users. Sony made a bid for Kadokawa Corporation. Kadokawa publishes manga including the Gundam series, owns the BookWalker platform – a kind of Kindle store for manga, computer and gaming magazines, anime films and TV series, record label, role-playing table top games and computer games including Elden Ring.

    At the end of the month, two things showed a difficult future for the UK media industry. A UK parliament report reflected on both local and national news media futures. UK TV programme exports dropped slightly in 2024 by 2%.

    Online

    Amazon launched a sub-$20 offering called Amazon Haul to compete with Temu and Shein, in plenty of time for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It allowed free product returns. Ted Baker returns as an online store. Which? launches a class action suit against Apple with regards to iCloud storage options.

    In a sign of a weak economy, John Lewis partnered with Klarna.

    Other news

    2014 Global Citizen Awards

    Record producer Quincy Jones died. Typhoon Toraji prompted a T8 warning (gale force winds and very heavy rain) in Hong Kong, later lowered to T3 (equivalent to a UK amber weather warning for rain). It historically has been unheard of to see a typhoon this late in the year, typhoon season is typically in July, August and September. In the UK, storm Bert lashed the country with uncharacteristically warm weather, high winds and torrential rain.

    A Hong Kong court sentenced 45 former opposition politicians to up to ten years in prison. The heaviest sentence was given to Benny Tai. Tai is a former associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and the most prominent thinker. Tai used his expertise in constitutional law to help the Occupy Central sit-in, 2016 Legislative election and the 2019 district council election upsets.

    Ireland goes to the polls, given its proportional representation system, the vote counting (and recounting) took a while.

    Technology

    Amazon’s assistant Alexa turned 10 years old. Long time technology journalist Om Malik wrote about the decline in rate of growth for the internet. ChatGPT turns two.

    December 2024

    It was a damp start to December. The Irish general election results were slowly trickling out and thankfully the Irish electorate rejected some of the far right candidates.

    Business

    Novo Nordisk announced trial results for its latest weight management treatment CagriSema, the share price dropped significantly. To add insult to injury rival Eli Lilly were allowed to use their rival weight management product to treat sleep apnea by US regulators. Unilever abandons its pioneer position in sustainability, mirroring the thinking in Nick Asbury’s The Road to Hell.

    Luxury

    Jaguar unveiled its new direction in Miami.

    Media

    The Guardian agrees the sale of its Sunday newspaper The Observer to Tortoise Media. Apple+ TV celebrated its 5th anniversary. Taylor Swift’s Eras tour which had ran through much of 2023 + 2024, finally finished. The 149 shows grossed $2 billion in ticket sales. Group M announced that global media spending for 2024 past $1 trillion – over half of it going to technology platforms.

    Marketing

    McDonalds brought back its McRib burger, complete with a Christmas themed advertisement and jingle. For the UK’s main Christmas ads, I put them all together here. IPG acquired by Omnicom in deal announced. Expected to go through in the second half of 2025.

    Online

    Foursquare shut down its City Guide app, it looked like they will be merging some of its features into their Swarm app instead of you having to use two apps. The revised Swarm app is due to appear sometime in 2025.

    renren 'upgrade' notice December 2, 2024

    Chinese social network RenRen went offline. A notice on their site dated December 2, 2024 talked about a fundamental upgrade, comparing the existing service to a petrol car and the forthcoming new service to an electric vehicle (literally translated new energy vehicle – which covers electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids etc).

    人人网服务升级公告
    亲爱的人人网用户们, 感谢您一直以来的陪伴与支持!我们想告诉您,人人网正在进 行一次“换车”升级—一就像您的燃油车开了多年,也想试试
    新能源车一样。 在这期间,您在人人网上的所有数据都得到了严格的保护,确 保您的个人信息和隐私安全不受任何威胁。您的数据安全,对
    我们来说至关重要。 请耐心等待我们的“新车”上路,届时您将享受到更加稳定、
    安全、丰富的社交体验,让我们共同期待人人网的全新启程!

    Data showed Amazon had biggest Black Friday takings ever. Krispy Kreme got their online ordering system hacked. The hack had a material effect on Krispy Kreme’s financial results.

    Pre-owned online retailer musicMagpie was acquired by the AO Group.

    Other news

    F 242 Blackout tour

    I got to see Front 242 perform their last show in the UK at the Electric Ballroom in Camden. The Black Out Tour was their last tour. After this tour, they retired. South Korean president Yoon declares martial law and then cancels the declaration of martial law hours later. The Assad regime ruling Syria collapses in the space of a week.

    Technology

    Pat Gelsinger abruptly retired as CEO of Intel.

    How did 2024 meme?

    Pharmacist Holding a Box of Ozempic

    Ozempic face, the thinner but aged look of the wealthy who have managed to lose weight rapidly with the help of semaglutide injections given for aesthetic rather than medical reasons.

    To bring you up to speed, The Economist did a really good podcast about this category of drugs.

    Given that I worked on Wegovy, the planner in me feels a little disappointed that we didn’t get Wegovy to verb. Ozempic instead stole brand gold mainly down to Novo Nordisk suffering from ‘unprecedented demand’ at US launch until now. At the end of May, semaglutide had its own episode of South Park.

    The money quote from Cartman:

    “Rich people get Ozempic, poor people get body positivity”

    South Park: The End of Obesity

    On June 10th, 2024 Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen went on Bloomberg Television to explain that they haven’t created, nor are they responsible for the social media hype surrounding semaglutide medications.

    Later that month it even appeared on the runway at Berlin fashion week. At least Ozempic face is better than ‘skinny jab‘.

    The sales pitch.

    I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements from January 2025 onwards; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy