Blog

  • Francis Fukuyama + more things

    Francis Fukuyama

    Political theorist and author Francis Fukuyama wrote one of the mis-understood books of the late 20th century. The End of History (And The Last Man) was written in 1989 and the title and Francis Fukuyama have been misquoted endlessly since.

    Foror 25 años ICP

    At the 2020 Munich Security Conference Francis Fukuyama gave a talk about the book and what it actually meant from his perspective.

    This one on tribalism on and populism is also very interesting.

    Business

    Great video on the history of HNA, which went under a mountain of debt and was unwound by the Chinese government.

    HNA started off as Hainan Airlines before expanding internationally and across sectors.

    B-5971 Hainan Airways A330

    Finance

    M-Pesa eyes the global remittances trillion-dollar market | Quartz 

    Dollar funding for Chinese start-ups dries up | Financial Times – not terribly surprising given the investment and regulatory environment in China

    FMCG

    Macron versus McDonald’s: how France ditched disposable food packaging | Financial Times

    Ideas

    Why German think tanks have to change the way they work 

    Wokeness as mainline orthodoxy – NoahpinionMusa al-Gharbi has a recent article with quite a bit of data showing that journalistic and academic attention to the topics of diversity, bias, privilege, and so on seems to have peaked, while “cancel culture” incidents have decreased on campuses and in corporations, and political opinions on various social issues have moderated a bit. Anecdotally, corporate interest in DEI seems to be waning as well. Other observers like Tyler Cowen have noticed the trend.

    Luxury

    Survey Finds Japanese People’s Dream Car Is a Lexus | Nippon.com – bad news for Mercedes & BMW. This isn’t about Japanese nationalism as Mercedes and BMW have enjoyed healthy sales in the country in the past. Much of this is about the massification of these brands and the decline in quality in comparison to the single-mindedness of Lexus engineers.

    Marketing

    The Drum | How Nestlé Is Using AI To Set Creative Rules For Its 15,000 Marketers – In 2021, Nestlé started to put all its creative through an AI platform that would rank ads based on their suitability to different online platforms and pull out the key elements that are required for maximum ROI. That process created a set of ’rules’ for successful campaigns and early tests generated transformational results, finding that ads that meet the new creative requirements generate a significantly higher return on ad spend. Now, Nestlé’s 15,000 marketers across 2,000 brands in 200 territories have to test the ads in the machine learning platform prior to rolling a campaign out – my biggest concern is that this becomes reductive in terms of creativity and self reinforcing rather than facilitating the picking of true winners. Secondly, I could see it over-indexing on brand activation rather than brand building spend and ultimately destroy value

    Airbnb’s earnings surge after ‘incredibly effective’ marketing shift | Marketing Week – part of this is down to the fact that most online media is focused on performance marketing or brand activation rather than brand building. Pivoting to a more balanced spend will make a positive difference.

    Media

    Hong Kong journalist Bao Choy launches new media outlet amid ‘collapsing’ press freedom – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP 

    Daily Mirror publisher explores using ChatGPT to help write local news | Financial Times 

    Online

    How a Covert Firm Spreads Lies and Chaos Around the World – DER SPIEGEL 

    Security

    US-initiated joint export curbs on China leave critical loopholes? | DigiTimes 

    ByteDance is quietly becoming a force in VR (and more) | Techinasia – theft of ASML proprietary information by Chinese employees. The song remains the same

  • Dark Side Of The Moon 50th anniversary + more stuff

    Dark Side Of The Moon 50th anniversary

    Pink Floyd released their seminal album The Dark Side of The Moon in 1973. The album went on to be very influential in the decades to come. I first heard of the album in primary school, Mr Garrett talked about seeing Pink Floyd perform The Dark Side Of The Moon – Live At Wembley. I am not sure if he actually went to the concert or saw the film of it.

    Dark Side of the Moon

    He was considered our coolest teacher with tales of swimming across the Suez Canal and having a dark green down belay jacket as a winter coat. This was before technical wear became mainstream.

    Anyway back to The Dark Side of the Moon. It influenced so many different genres of music and subcultures. It was a popular soundtrack for relaxing at home and beloved even my the mod revivalists that I knew.

    The reality was the the psychedelic aspects of the 1960s and 1970s had large scale youth appeal well into the late 1990s.

    The voice recordings and ambient noise influenced sampling culture, though Pink Floyd wasn’t always happy about it. The alarm clock sound on Time was sampled by The Prodigy and Bomb The Bass were declined permission to use a sample from Money on a track dropped from their second album Unknown Territory.

    The iconic cash register sound on Money actually came from a special effects album Jac HolzmanAuthentic Sound Effects Volume 2.

    Ambient rooms in clubs would see The Dark Side of the Moon and later Wish You Were Here albums played regularly. To celebrate the 50th anniversary, Pink Floyd launched an animation competition.

    Generative AI was one of the go to techniques that artists went to in order to match the cosmic nature of the music. Some of the videos are beautiful to watch.

    Concern about Christian Japanese

    Fervent religious belief in Japan has led to two tragedies in modern Japan. The assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe associated with anger at the Unification church and the Tokyo subway attack with Sarin in 1995 by the Aum Shinrikyo sect.

    Devout Christians are a small but visible community in Japan and many Japanese are uncomfortable around them due to these incidents. This leads to children becoming socially isolated in school and friends pulling away in adult life.

    Yellow Magic Orchestra

    Japan’s Yellow Magic Orchestra (YMO) get a documentary that highlights the importance to popular music production.

    Condor

    Condor was British Railways attempt at containerisation, before the popularity of intermodal containerisation. It makes interesting viewing. It would be great if the UK and Ireland could take a similarly enlightened approach to integrated logistics now.

    SKYN Japan

    Skyn presents undressing softness – the latest brand film and campaign was released in Japan for Valentine’s Day. I was struck by how it about brings out empathy. The performing couples are nervous. They didn’t know what they’ll be asked to do next and they have to do it in public. This becomes even more obivous for the thousands who saw the film on an OOH digital billboard at Shibuya station. It comes across more sweet and loving, than erotic or sexual, which is different for the category.

    Whiskas

    Whiskas finding the purr in every cat is a really interesting and smart proposition. I love the way AMV BBDO did the creative around this proposition.

  • China Renaissance Holdings + more things

    China Renaissance

    Hong Kong Stock Market filingthe Company (China Renaissance Holdings – *added this for clarity) has been unable to contact Mr. Bao Fan (“Mr. Bao”), Chairman of the Board, Executive Director, Chief Executive Officer and the controlling shareholder of the Company. The Board is not aware of any information that indicates that Mr. Bao’s unavailability is or might be related to the business and/or operations of the Group which is continuing normally (PDF) – Bao Fan has been incommunicado for a number of days. He is not responding to messages. While its unusual and considered bad practice having the same person as chairman and CEO, in China its more common. So Bao’s dual role at China Renaissance Holdings isn’t unusual. But that is the least of the worries that western investors will have about China Renaissance Holdings at the moment.

    Waiting for the cook to finish
    Meituan delivery workers waiting for the food to be prepared

    Some thoughts:

    • China Renaissance Holdings has been involved in funding some of China’s biggest technology companies including Didi (think of Lyft or Uber as a western analogue) and Meituan (Deliveroo, Doordash or Just Eat equivalent.
    • Didi in particular seems to have gained the wraith of the Chinese government. Some of this feels to be down to sexism due to the company having a connected female president Jean Liu. The party leans more toward the Andrew Tait school of feminism
    • Mr Bao Fan’s disappearance evoked memories of Jianhua Xiao and his company Tomorrow Holdings.  Xiao was snatched and smuggled out of his apartment in the Four Seasons in Hong Kong back in 2017. Xiao for a few years all that people knew was that he was wheeled out of the hotel asleep in a wheelchair despite having a security team. He then spent a few years ‘helping‘ authorities unwind his business Tomorrow Holdings. Finally, he got sent to prison for 13 years with charges including embezzlement and fraud. If this happens with China Renaissance Holdings, or any of the prominent companies that it has as clients like Meituan there would be a shockwave, even through the most pro-China of foreign investors like Bridgewater Capital or Goldman Sachs
    • Bao Fan is one of several executives who were disappeared for a while. The most prominent executive who disappeared from the public eye was Jack Ma. Ma then stepped back from his businesses. If Bao steps back from China Renaissance Holdings, the Chinese tech sector will lose an investment rainmaker. China Renaissance Holdings maybe unwound or its assets handed over to state-owned banking institutions
    • What happens next will likely impact western sentiment towards Chinese investment in the short to medium turn, but financial institutions are still seduced by the ‘Chinese opportunity’. And the smart money this time might be wrong

    China

    Facing the Global South: Building a new International System by Yang Ping – China’s plan to build its version of the British Empire

    Beyond the balloon: the US-China spy game | Financial Times 

    Jokes or stereotypes? When ‘made in China’ comedy is no laughing matter | South China Morning Post – seems to based on the logical fallacy that Chinese ethnicity and the Chinese nation are one and the same. Its like Ghana demanding allegiance from all Afro-Carribbean and African-American people

    Thousands of retirees protest in Wuhan and Dalian over medical payout cuts — Radio Free Asia 

    Consumer behaviour

    The U.S. cannot afford to turn against immigration | Noah Smith 

    Some in Japan Say They Now Fear the “Anti-Masking Police” – Unseen Japan 

    Economics

    Activist investors to push for margins, profitability in first half of 2023 | Reuters – short termism rules

    Health

    New CDC report shows Covid added little to mental health trends | Jonathan Haidt – interesting insights

    How the superfast flight of astronauts and fighter pilots changes their brains | Space 

    Hong Kong

    Activist investors to push for margins, profitability in first half of 2023 | Reuters – short termism rules

    Japan

    Japan to grant residency to high-earning professionals after 1 year – Nikkei Asia – this is a big move for Japan, but still too little

    Legal

    UK solicitors warned not to act as ‘hired guns’ to silence critics of super-rich | Law | The Guardian – no comment on acting as hired guns to silence journalists investigating public interest issues of prominent sportspeople and politicians in the UK. I presume that’s still acceptable behaviour

    Luxury

    Luxury advertising amid an economic downturn | Marketing | Campaign Asia 

    Pharrell Williams named Louis Vuitton men’s creative director | Vogue Business 

    Online

    A personal update from Susan – YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki steps down, will remain an advisor to Alphabet

    Instagram Is Pulling The Plug On Live Shopping WeRSM – what works in China, doesn’t necessarily work elsewhere

    ‘Aims’: the software for hire that can control 30,000 fake online profiles | Technology | The Guardian 

    Security

    The Future of the War on Terror | Harpers 

    Albanian gangs set up hundreds of spy cameras to keep ahead of police | Financial Times 

  • NORA

    Last week I heard the acronym NORA mentioned with regards the kind of problems that Microsoft’s algorithm could solve. NORA stands for no one real answer. Search is already pretty good at answering questions like ‘what time is it in Osaka’ or ‘what is the capital of Kazakhstan’.

    In the mid-2000s NORA would have been called ‘knowledge search‘ by the people at Google, Yahoo! and Bing – who were the main search engine companies. So its not a new idea in search, despite what one might believe based on the hype around chatbot enabled search engines. ChatGPT and other related generative AI tools have been touted as possible routes to get to knowledge search.

    Knowledge search

    Back when I worked at Yahoo! the idea of knowledge search internally was about trying to carve out a space that useful and differentiated from Google’s approach as defined by their mission:

    To organise the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful

    Our approach to search – Google

    Google was rolling out services that not only searched the web. It also covered maps, the content of books including rare libraries and academic journals. It was organising the key news stories and curating which publications were seen in relation to that story. It could tell you the time elsewhere in the world and convert measures from imperial to metric.

    Google’s Gmail set the standard in organising our personal information, making the email box more accessible and searchable than it had been previously. We take having a journaled hard drive for granted now, but at one time Google Desktop put a search of the files on your computer together with online services in one small search box.

    Google Desktop Mac

    Being as good as Google was just table stakes. So when I was at Yahoo! we had our own version of Google Desktop. We bought Konfabulator, that put real time data widgets on your desktop and were thinking about how to do them on the smartphone OS of the time Nokia’s Symbian S60. Konfabulator’s developer Arlo Rose went on to work on Yahoo!’s mobile experiences and Yahoo! Connected TV – a photo-smart TV system that was before the modern Apple TV apps. Tim Mayer led a project to build out an index of the web for Yahoo! as large, if not bigger than Google’s at the time. And all of these developments were just hygiene factors.

    My colleagues at Yahoo! were interested in opinions or NORA; which is where the idea of knowledge search came in. Knowledge search had a number of different angles to it:

    • Tagged content such as my Flickr photo library or social bookmarking provided content from consumers about a given site that could then be triangulated into trusted context, or used to train a machine learning model of what a cat looked like
    • Question and answer services like Quora, Yahoo! Answers and Naver’s Jisik In Service improved search. Naver managed to parlay this into becoming the number one search engine for Korea and Koreans. Google tried to replicate this success with Knol and failed
    • Reviews. Google managed to parlay reviews into improving its mobile search offering. Google acquired Zagat in 2011. This enabled Google to build a reputation for good quality local restaurant reviews. It eventually sold the business on again to another restaurant review site The Infatuation

    The ChatGPT type services in search are considered to provide an alternative to human-powered services. They create NORA through machine generated content based on large data sets trawled from the web.

    Energy consumption

    A conventional Google internet search was claimed to consume 0.3 watt/hours of power according to Google sources who responded to the New York Times back in 2011. This was back when Google claimed that it was processing about one billion (1,000,000,000) searches per day. It accounted for just over 12 million of the 260,000,000 watt hours Google’s global data centres use per day. The rest of it comes from app downloads, maps, YouTube videos.

    But we also know that the number of Google searches ramped up considerably from those 2011 publicly disclosed numbers

    Google global search volume

    The driver for this increase was mobile search including more energy intensive Google Lens and voice activated searches thanks to Android.

    Large language models (LLMs) are computationally intensive and this will result in a corresponding rise in energy consumption. That also has implications in terms of business profit margins as well as ESG related considerations.

    Legal liabilities

    With NORA content being created by machine learning services, it might be different to the previous generation of knowledge search services. These services were platforms, but machine learning services become publishers.

    This becomes important for a few reasons

    • Increased costs (while they aren’t using an army of writers, they are using a lot of computing power to generate the responses)
    • Legal protections (in the US)
    • Intellectual property and plagiarism issues, currently they can handle it just by taking down the content. Once they become a publisher rather than a platform things become more complicated

    “no provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider”

    Communications Decency Act of 1996.Section 230

    Section 230 has been repeatedly used to regulate Facebook, Google et al in a lax manner as they haven’t been ‘publishers’, with ChatGPT this may change. The question of whether an algorithm is a creator has some precedence. Financial reporting has used machine learning to create news reports on company financial results over a number of years. Combine that with the general political antipathy towards Meta and Alphabet from both of the main US political parties and things could get interesting very fast.

    It is interesting that OpenAI is putting a lot of thought around ethics in LLM, which will impact future services and they probably hope stave off regulation.

    Regulated industries and liability

    Given an LLM’s ability to make things up it can:

    • Gives advice without pointing out health risks by creating a workout plan or a weight loss diets
    • Gives bad legal advice
    • Infringe regulations surrounding different industries like financial services

    This is just the tip of the iceberg that NORA content powered by LLMs face.

    Business model disruption

    Search advertising as we know it has been the same for the past two decades. The disruption to the look and feel of search results through Bing’s chat response has a negative impact on Google’s advertising model with the search ads along the top and down the right hand side of the search engine results page. Instead you’ll end up with the ‘correct’ answer and no reason to click on the search adverts.

    Currently if a non-relevant site shows up in Google. The lack of relevance is blamed on the site rather than the search engine. However an error in a machine learning created NORA response will see the search engine blamed.

    Which is pretty much what happened when Google demonstrated their efforts in the area. Inaccuracies in a demonstration held in Paris cause the share price of Alphabet to decline by 7 percent in one day. Technology news site TechCrunch even went as far as to say that Google is losing control.

    Microsoft probably doesn’t have a lot to lose in Bing. So integrating ChatGPT’s LLM might give them a few percentage points of search market share. Microsoft thinks that each percent gain would be worth 2 billion dollars in extra revenue.

    The 2 billion number is an estimate and we don’t know how the use of NORA results generated by LLM will affect bidding on search keywords. That 2 billion might be a lot less.

    Is NORA the user problem that Google and Bing’s use of LLMs are fixing?

    Around about the time that Google enjoyed a massive uptake in search it also changed search to meet a mobile paradigm. Research type searches done by everyone from brand planners to recruiters and students have declined in quality to an extent that some have openly questioned is Google dead?

    Google search box

    Boolean search no longer works, Danny Sullivan at Google admitted as much here. While Google hasn’t trumpeted the decline of Boolean search, ‘power’ users have noticed and they aren’t happy. That narrative together with the botched demo the other week reinforced each other.

    Unfortunately, due to the large number of searches that don’t require Boolean strings, Google wasn’t going to go back. Instead, chat-based interfaces done right might offer an alternative for more tailored searches that would be accessible to power users and n00bs alike?

    Technology paradigm shift?

    At first the biggest shock that myself and others had seeing the initial reports was how Google and Microsoft could have been left in the dust of OpenAI. Building models requires a large amount of computing power to help train and run.

    Microsoft had already been doing interesting things in machine learning with Cortana on Azure cloud services and Google had been doing things with TensorFlow. Amazon Web Services provides a set of machine learning tools and the infrastructure to run it on.

    Alphabet subsidiary DeepMind had already explored LLM and highlighted 21 risks associated with the technology, which is probably why Google hadn’t been looking for a ChatGPT type front end to search. The risks highlighted included areas such as:

    • Discrimination, Hate speech and Exclusion although there is research to indicate that there might be solutions to this problem
    • Information Hazards – there has already been a case study on how an LLM can be influenced to display a socially conservative perspective.
    • Misinformation Harms – researchers claimed that LLMs were “prone to hallucinating” (liable to just make stuff up)
    • Malicious Uses
    • Human-Computer Interaction Harms
    • Environmental and Socioeconomic harms

    Stories that have appeared about ChatGPT and Bing’s implementation of it seem to validate the DeepMind discussion paper on LLMs.

    The Microsoft question of why they partnered with ChatGPT rather than rolling out their own product is more interesting. Stephen Wolframs in-depth explanation of how ChatGPT works is worth a read (and a couple of re-reads to actually understand it). Microsoft’s efforts in probabilistic machine learning looks very similar in nature to ChatGPT. As far back as 1996, then CEO Bill Gates was publicly talking about how Microsoft’s expertise in Bayesian networks as a competitive advantage against rivals. Microsoft relied on research and the Bayesian network model put forward by Judea Pearl which he describes in his book Heuristics.

    Given the resources and head start that Microsoft had, why were they not further along and instead faced being disrupted by OpenAI? Having worked in the past with Microsoft as a client, I know they won’t buy into anything that they can build cheaper. That raises bigger questions about Microsoft’s operation over the past quarter of a century and its wider innovation story to date.

    Flash in the pan

    At times the technology sector looks more like a fashion industry driven by fads more than anything else. A case in point being last years focus on the metaverse. The resulting hike in interest rates has seen investment drop in the field. Businesses like Microsoft and Meta have shut down a lot of their efforts, or have scaled back. It is analogous to the numerous ‘AI winters‘ that have happened over the past 50 years as well.

    Bing’s implementation of LLM is already garnering criticism from the likes of the New York Times. This new form of search may end up being a flash-in-the-pan like Clubhouse. The latent demand for NORA in search will still be there, but LLM might not be the panacea to solve it. Consumers may continue to rely on Reddit and question-and-answer platforms like Quora as an imperfect solution in the meantime.

    In summary….

    • NORA content generated by LLMs represent a new way to solve a long known about challenge in online search
    • NORA as a concept was previously called knowledge search
    • NORA content competes with: social media including Reddit, specialist review sites including Yelp or OpenRice and question and answer services including Quora
    • ChatGPT and similar services affect human perceptions of search and the experience makes them more critical of the search engine response is not of an acceptable standard
    • LLMs represent a number of challenges that large technology companies have discussed publicly, but were still attractive for some reason
    • ChatGPT shows up the the decades of research that Google, Microsoft and Amazon have put into machine learning, this will negatively affect investors attitudes to these companies and merits a more critical nuanced examination of ‘innovation’. These large companies seem to be struggling to put applied innovation into practice. Microsoft buying into ChatGPT is essentially an admission of failure in its own efforts over at least 3 decades. Even ChatGPT’s deeply flawed product is considered to be better than nothing at all by these large technology companies
    • Use of ChatGPT like services expose Google and Bing to business risks that are legal and regulatory in nature. It could even result in loss of life
    • ChatGPT’s rise has surfaced deep seated concerns amongst technologists, early adopters, power users and investors about Google’s ability to execute on innovation successfully now (and in the future). Google’s search product has been weakened over time by its focus on mobile search dominance. Alphabet as a whole is no longer seen as a ‘leader’
    • LLMs, if successful would disrupt the online advertising business model around search engine marketing
    • ChatGPT and its underlying technology do not represent a paradigm shift
    • There is evidence to suggest that ChatGPT and other LLM powered chat search interfaces could turn out to be a fad rather than a future trend. The service as implemented has underwhelmed
  • Patriotic Alternative + more things

    Patriotic Alternative

    Patriotic Alternative wasn’t a name familiar to me when I first heard about them instigating a riot in Liverpool on Saturday night. It doesn’t take that much to create a ruckus in some of the poorer areas of Liverpool.

    Liverpool Riots 2011

    I wasn’t particularly surprised by the burnt out police van; it sounds like a Merseyside Saturday night that went a bit out of control. That’s as Liverpudlian as a fried breakfast served in a ‘bin lid’ – a large white bun or bap large enough to contain bacon, sausage, a fried egg or two and brown sauce.

    But there were aspects that did surprise me and all signs point to Patriotic Alternative. It’s a multi-cultural city, everyone has relatives abroad whether its extended Irish family, West Indians or deep connections within the Chinese diaspora. Which is why I was surprised that Patriotic Alternative managed to stir up so much trouble against an asylum hotel in the Knowsley area of Liverpool.

    The city does have a certain degree of prejudice; primarily sectarianism. Its one of the few areas in England that has a marching season rather like Northern Ireland with an Orange Order parade held annual in Southport back when I lived up there. But Knowsley was something else. Patriotic Alternative managed to do something that I never thought was possible in cities like Liverpool or Bristol.

    So reading about the event and the role of Patriotic Alternative in Dazed was an eye opener. It portrayed a city that I no longer recognised. Patriotic Alternative apparently organised the protest on a Telegram channel. What Dazed claim happened is that mainstream political statements and mainstream media coverage created an environment ripe for trouble makers like Patriotic Alternative.

    According to Hope Not Hate, Patriotic Alternative shared members with prescribed far right organisation National Action. For an organisation that has a couple of hundred core members Patriotic Alternative has an outsized footprint. This footprint seems to be driven by the Patriotic Alternative Telegram channel with some 5,000 followers

    Beauty

    Eau de toilette vs eau de parfum: How to tell them apart | Lifestyle Asia 

    China

    Chinese Spy Balloon: Chinese Experts React 

    How China Tries to Bamboozle the United Nations – The Diplomat 

    The Mysterious $300 Billion Flow Out of China | The Overshoot 

    In China, Protesters’ Detentions Bring Up Dilemma for Their Loved Ones – WSJ 

    Chinese AI Firms Cloudwalk, Haitian Plunge After Saying ChatGPT Brings In No Revenue – irrational exuberance in Chinese investors

    China Hasn’t Given Up on the Belt and Road | Foreign Affairs 

    Consumer behaviour

    Opinion | My Chinese Generation Is Losing the Ability to Express Itself – The New York Times 

    Consumers in the 1970s on the changing nature of growing old, unfortunately attitudes and biases haven’t improved in the last 50 years.

    Economics

    US chip packaging firm Amkor closes its Shanghai plant for a week amid global market downturn | South China Morning Post – this is signalling a recession, as was AP shipments to Chinese smartphone brands stay in decline in 1Q23, says DIGITIMES ResearchFourth-quarter 2022 smartphone application processor (AP) shipments to China-based smartphone vendors amounted to 137 million units, plunging 24% from the prior quarter and 20.3% from the prior year, and will continue to experience a double-digit decline in the first quarter of 2023, according to figures from DIGITIMES Research’s latest report covering smartphone AP shipments. Because of shrinking demand and high smartphone inventory at the channel in both China and emerging markets, AP shipments to China-based smartphone vendors had already experienced on-year declines for five consecutive quarters

    The Bank of England’s Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More 

    China and America are locked in destructive codependence | Financial Times 

    Musings on Markets: Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk – Measures and Implications 

    The Developing Country Industrialization series | Noahpinion 

    Finance

    China Regulators Querying Banks on Mortgage Prepayment Strain – Bloomberg 

    FMCG

    How Guinness became Britain’s most popular pint 

    How China Fell In Love With Cheap Wine | Sixth Tone – reminds me of my time working on the Bordeaux wine marketing board as an account at the agency I worked for in Hong Kong. The work was focused on mainland China and promoted Bordeaux as a lifestyle brand for wine consumption rather than just gift giving

    Health

    Weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy are changing how patients view their obesity – Vox – disclaimer, I worked on both Saxenda and Wegovy at a global brand marketing campaign level in a previous agency

    Massachusetts Democratic organ donation proposal sounds like prisoner organ harvesting. | SlateDemocratic state representatives Carlos González and Judith García introduced legislation that would allow incarcerated people to go home early—if they “donated” their organs. Specifically, the bill would “allow eligible incarcerated individuals to gain not less than 60 and not more than 365-day reduction in the length of their committed sentence” if they “donated bone marrow or organ(s).” Gonzalez argued that the bill was a step towards advancing racial equity in health care and making it easier for people of color to obtain transplants.

    Hong Kong

    The Hong Kong government must break its habit of relying on property developers | South China Morning Post – the article itself isn’t that interesting, but the author is. Regina Ip would be what the conservative party in the UK would call a big beast. She is a former minister level politician in the pro-China camp. Add to this the fact that despite mainland Chinese companies now outnumber local and foreign firms in Hong Kong and the economy is in decline. I expect Ip’s op-ed to be the tip of an iceberg of a shift in economic drivers that will occur sometime after John Lee leaves office. The clock is ticking on the big five families to diversify their wealth out of Hong Kong and China, following Jardines example to go into Indonesia might be a prudent start

    Hong Kong reopens with post-Covid charm offensive | Financial TimesJohannes Hack, president of Hong Kong’s German Chamber of Commerce, who sits on a new task force to promote the city, said a “long-haul” effort to change business perceptions would have to go beyond plane ticket giveaways. “If you have relocated corporate functions to another place, half a year later you are probably not going to reverse the whole thing,” he said. “People who have moved to Singapore with their teen kids, there is no way they are going to do that again . . . They are not going to come back.” – feeds into the ‘its just another city in China now’ narrative

    Hong Kong’s stability and livelihood could have been ‘gravely affected’ by 2020 unofficial primary scheme, court hears | South China Morning Post 

    Ideas

    Why the Tech Pessimists Are Wrong – by Rex Woodbury

    Innovation

    Importance of Standards to National Security – Lawfare 

    Ireland

    AI is imagining a surreal future for Ireland – The Face 

    Irish Army mappers find 100 more border crossings ahead of Brexit – Independent.ie 

    Japan

    Finally! Ridable Catbuses are being added to the Ghibli Park theme park | SoraNews24 -Japan News- – great partnership for Toyota

    Nissan Unveils New “Japanese Futurism” Design Direction – Core77 

    London

    UK universities starting to lose allure for Chinese | News | The Times – well that’s screwed the Ponzi scheme that universities have engaged in via over-priced student accommodation real estate investments for reasons that aren’t exactly clear given their ownership structure and charters

    Luxury

    What Happened to Pyer Moss? The Cut 

    Marketing

    Advertising in China: Promoting brand awareness and brand value | Daxue Consulting 

    Materials

    Gigapresses – the giant die casts reshaping car manufacturing | Reuters 

    Lithium Bonanza: China Battles West for Raw Material of the Future – DER SPIEGEL 

    Online

    It’s impossible to know what you’re buying online – The Atlantic  – or that the premise behind a lot of Kevin Kelly’s thoughts about The New Economy are no longer valid and Why Does It Feel Like Amazon Is Making Itself Worse? 

    Hermès wins case against Metabirkins over digital NFTs, Rothschild to appeal | Vogue Business 

    Opinion | TikTok Is Wonderful. I Still Don’t Want It on My Phone. – The New York Times 

    Japanese fashion magazine Popteen ends physical version, switches to web installments insteadmove to online only and moving away from monthly updates. Popteen ended its physical publishing as of February 1, 2023, with the February 2023 edition (released on December 28, 2022) being its last. web-based articles will be released on the first and the 15th of every month, known as “Popteen media”, and full editions of the fashion magazine will be updated a few times annually. The main reason for switching to the web edition was to make the magazine more accessible to middle and high-school students, who may not receive an allowance or be able to work part-time to afford physical copies of Popteen

    Philippines

    Filipino laundromat startup raising $2m series A with this deck – Tech in Asia – I think that this could roll out in the future to countries like the UK due to the decline in home ownership / and increase in multi-family homes

    Retailing

    Mainland shoppers return to Hong Kong, but some border shopkeepers fear boom times have gone for good | South China Morning PostBusiness levels go up in shops near border, but still far off peak of pre-pandemic days, stores say. One pharmacy owner says he logged only a 10 per cent increase in business since full reopening of border last week – this ties in with the slow sales that L’Oreal has been seeing in mainland China. Given the economic uncertainty and real estate crisis, slow consumption isn’t surprising. See also Hong Kong residents living near border with mainland China fear return of parallel traders and shoppers, as police step up patrols | South China Morning Post 

    Security

    China’s eyes on the West involve a lot more than hot air | Comment | The TimesBeijing may have tempered its aggressive diplomacy as it focuses on trying to revive the Chinese economy, but its appetite for extensive and sophisticated surveillance that goes way beyond espionage balloons is insatiable and dangerous and China’s tech weapons roll in to quell demonstrations, identify protesters – The Record from Recorded Future News 

    Great video on microchip counterfeiting and recycling. The Japanese are doing some of the best work authenticating chips. Also if its bad for US defence contractors, just imagine how bad it will be for the sanctioned Russian defence sector.

    How Technology Is Disrupting the Intelligence World | Foreign Affairs 

    Analysis: China’s military has shown growing interest in high-altitude balloons | Reuters and Chinese balloon program spying on 40 countries, U.S. says – The Washington Post 

    China to EU: Drop calls for Ukraine’s ‘complete victory’ – POLITICO and Europe has to stand against Russia – by Noah Smith 

    China surpasses US in number of ICBM launchers 

    Shares in British engineering company dive as it announces cost of cyberattack – The Record from Recorded Future News – just wow. I temped at Morgan after university before I got an agency role. I was employed to operate their supply chain software because of my touch typing skills. Back then they had dedicated leased lines connecting different sites, all of which ran Digital VAX mini-computers

    Software

    Will AI take away the coding jobs? – by Noah Smith – no more than Github would

    AI-Powered Chip Design Goes Mainstream – EE Times 

    Seeing for the SightlessLuo, 26, suffers from congenital cataracts and is pursuing a degree in acupuncture and massage therapy at a college in Beijing. He needs help on the scales as there is no voice assistant function at the training center. On a mobile app called Be My Eyes (BME), he sends out a video call. Pointing his phone camera at the scales, he asks, “Hello, can you read the number for me, please?” A volunteer on the other end tells him, “91 kg.” Luo says thanks and hangs up. Usually, these exchanges only last a few seconds. Being tech savvy, Luo wrote a program back in high school to help the visually impaired memorize English vocabulary, something he himself struggled with. The app would randomly pick a word from a list he composed and he would spell it out after hearing the word. BME, developed by Hans Jørgen Wiberg, a visually impaired man from Denmark, drew Luo’s attention as soon as the Android version was available in China in 2017. Currently, there are 445,000 visually impaired users from all over the world and more than six million volunteers on BME.

    Style

    Adidas Tumbles as Losses From Its Kanye West Venture Pile Up – The New York Times – interesting how badly Ivy Park is doing and this on their business in China: Adidas in China: a brand seeking its redemptionIn the second half of 2022, Adidas CEO Kasper Rorsted estimated losses of revenue of more than 35% in the Chinese market. He declared that such a violent drop was caused by some mistakes. For instance, the struggle of keeping up with the local brands, the failed recovery after the zero-covid policy, and the scandal of Xinjiang cotton.After the winter Olympics, the trend of Guochao, or the “national trend”, started to develop. More young Chinese consumers prefer buying local brands rather than western sportswear brands. In August 2022, the local firm, Anta, overtook Nike and became the biggest sportswear brand in China with a revenue of more than USD3.79 billion. Li-Ning, another Chinese firm, also registered revenue of USD1.76 billion against Adidas’ USD1.72 billion, pushing the German brand out of the podium. The zero-Covid policy has been a big problem for Adidas. In 2022, the company had to deal with closed shops and rising costs. In particular, the general lockdown which paralyzed China for the last few years resulted in the desegregation of the complex system of supply chains built up by the German brand. The disrupted supply chains cost Adidas a loss of USD427 million in the first quarter of 2022.

    Taiwan

    How to Deter a War for Taiwan + The Burdens of Occupation if China Wins 

    Taiwan may join Foxconn in India to fuel chip skills | Mint 

    Technology

    Daring Fireball: My 2022 Apple Report Card 

    onsemi takes full ownership of East Fishkill 300mm wafer fab | EE Times – this was originally IBM’s fab where they made many of their PowerPC processors

    SMIC expects 10-12% revenue drop in 1Q23 | DigiTimesChina-based pure-play foundry Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) expects to post a revenue decline of 10-12% sequentially in the first quarter of 2023, with gross margin falling further to 19-21%.

    MotherDuck: Big Data is Dead – Jordan Tigani spent ten years working on Google BigQuery, during which time he was surprised to learn that the median data storage size for regular customers was much less than 100GB. In this piece he argues that genuine Big Data solutions are relevant to a tiny fraction of companies, and there’s way more value in solving problems for everyone else. I’ve been talking about Datasette as a tool for solving “small data” problems for a while

    i.MX 95 Uses In-House NPU IP – EE Times – interesting move that could provide competition for Nvidia in some verticals

    Web of no web

    Inside Virtual Reality’s Underground Sex Parties | Buzzfeed News – inevitable

    Wireless

    Liberty Global buys 5% stake in Vodafone worth £1.2bn | Financial Times – tail wagging the dog