Search results for: “cryptography”

  • Modern cryptography + more things

    Modern cryptography

    Keeping Secrets — STANFORD magazine – great article on the origins of modern cryptography. Without Diffie and Hellman you wouldn’t have e-commerce, VPNs or secure messaging. Modern cryptography as we know it goes back to an academic conference at Cornell University in 1977. To learn more about this I can also recommend Steven Levy’s book Crypto, this covers Diffie Hellman right up to what we’d recognise as the modern web.

    Culture

    The Brain Dump | Motherboard – new Bruce Sterling story

    FMCG

    Li Ka-shing turns up heat on food investment with vegan cheeseburger | WantChinaTimes – interesting investments in food technology

    Luxury

    Intel Reveals Details of MICA Smart Bracelet – Personal Tech News – WSJ – interesting that they chose Opening Ceremony as their collaboration partner

    Media

    Why podcasts are suddenly “back” – Marco.org – they never went away. The challenge previously had been creating a suitable financing model for podcasts. We’ve ended up with a number of routes:

    • The content loss leader for platforms – Joe Rogan’s buy out by Spotify
    • Patreon donations and merchandise – Cocaines & Rhinestones podcast
    • Radio show style sponsorship – the Pivot podcast with Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway
    • Radio style adverts – The Economist podcasts

    Technology

    Non-Microsoft Nokia launches Android N1 tablet with Foxconn — GigaOM – interesting move that could put Hon Hai on a path to becoming a brand in its own right. Hon Hai has encouraged migrant workers leaving to set up franchise electronics stores in the past, which would be their distribution network in China. The big question is how much brand equity amongst consumers is left in the Nokia name?

    China’s global internet conference excludes many of the industry’s biggest players | Quartz – why would western internet companies bother going? They are effectively shut out of the Chinese market. Network software and equipment makers have even less incentive as China seeks to undermine stands norms for their own ends

  • Technical capability notice

    The Washington Post alleged that the British government had served a technical capability notice against Apple in December 2024 to provide backdoor global access into encrypted Apple iCloud services. The BBC’s subsequent report appears to support the Post’s allegations. And begs philosophical question about what it means when the government has a copy of your ‘digital twin’?

    DALL-E surveillance image

    What is a technical capability notice

    A technical capability notice is a legal document. It is issued by the UK government that compels a telecoms provider or technology company that compels them to maintain the technical ability to assist with surveillance activities like interception of communications, equipment interference, or data acquisition. When applied to telecoms companies and internet service providers, it is usually UK only in scope. What is interesting about the technical capability notice allegedly served against Apple is extra-territorial in nature. The recipient of a technical capability notice, isn’t allowed to disclose that they’ve been served with the notice, let alone the scope of the ask.

    Apple outlined a number of concerns to the UK parliament in March 2024:

    • Breaks systems
    • Lack of accountability in the secrecy
    • Extra-territoriality

    Tl;DR – what the UK wants with technical capability notices is disproportionate.

    Short history of privacy

    The expectation of privacy in the UK is a relatively recent one. You can see British spy operations going back to at leas the 16th century with Sir Francis Walsingham. Walsingham had a network that read couriered mail and cracked codes in Elizabethan England.

    By Victorian times, you had Special Branch attached to the Metropolitan Police and related units across the British Empire. The Boer War saw Britain found permanent military intelligence units that was the forerunner of the current security services.

    By world war one the security services as we now know them were formed. They were responsible to intercept mail, telegraph, radio transmissions and telephone conversations where needed.

    Technology lept forward after World War 2.

    ECHELON

    ECHELON was a cold war era global signals intelligence network ran by Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US. It originated in the late 1960s to monitor the military and diplomatic communications of the Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc allies during the Cold War, the ECHELON project became formally established in 1971.

    ECHELON was partly inspired by earlier US projects. Project SHAMROCK had started in 1940 and ran through to the 1970s photographing telegram communications in the US, or transiting through the US. Project MINARET tracked the electronic communications of listed American citizens who travelled abroad. They were helped in this process by British signals intelligence agency GCHQ.

    In 2000, the European Commission filed a final report on ECHELON claimed that:

    • The US-led electronic intelligence-gathering network existed
    • It was used to provide US companies with a competitive advantage vis-à-vis their European peers; rather like US defence contractors have alleged to undergone by Chinese hackers

    Capenhurst microwave tower

    During the cold war, one of the main ways that Irish international data and voice calls were transmitted was via a microwave land bridge across England and on to the continent.

    Microwave Network

    Dublin Dame Court to Holyhead, Llandudno and on to Heaton Park. Just next to the straight line path between Llandudno and Heaton Park was a 150 foot tower in Capenhurst on the Wirral. This siphoned off a copy of all Irish data into the British intelligence system.

    Post-Echelon

    After 9/11, there were widespread concerns about the US PATRIOT Act that obligated US internet platforms to provide their data to US government, wherever that data was hosted. After Echelon was exposed, it took Edward Snowden to reveal PRISM that showed how the NSA was hoovering up data from popular internet services such as Yahoo! and Google.

    RAMPART-A was a similar operation taking data directly from the world’s major fibre-optic cables.

    US programme BULLRUN and UK programme Edgehill were programmes designed to crack encrypted communications.

    So privacy is a relatively new concept that relies the inability to process all the data taken in.

    Going after the encrypted iCloud services hits different. We are all cyborgs now, smartphones are our machine augmentation and are seldom out of reach. Peering into the cloud ‘twin’ of our device is like peering into our heads. Giving indications of hopes, weaknesses and intent. Which can then be taken and interpreted in many different ways.

    What would be the positive reasons to do a technical capability notice?

    Crime

    Increasing technological sophistication has gone hand in hand with the rise of organised crime groups and new criminal business models such as ‘Klad’. Organised crime is also transnational in nature.

    But criminals have already had access to dedicated criminal messaging networks, a couple of which were detailed in Joseph Cox’ Dark Wire . They use the dark web, Telegram and Facebook Marketplace as outlets for their sales.

    According to Statista less than six percent of crimes committed resulted in a charge or summons in 2023. That compares to just under 16 percent in 2015.

    Is going after Apple really going to result in an increased conviction rate, or could the resources be better used elsewhere?

    Public disorder

    Both the 2011 and 2024 riots caught the government off-guard. Back in 2011, there was concern that the perpetrators were organising over secure BlackBerry messaging. The reality that the bulk of it was being done over social media. It was a similar case with the 2024 public disturbances as well.

    So gaining access to iCloud data wouldn’t be that much help. Given the effort to filter through it, given that the signals and evidence were out there in public for everyone to see.

    The big challenge for the police was marshalling sufficient resources and the online narrative that took on a momentum of its own.

    Paedophiles

    One of the politicians strongest cards to justify invasion of privacy is to protect against nonces, paedos and whatever other label you use to describe the distribution of child sexual abuse images. It’s a powerful, emotive subject that hits like a gut punch. The UK government has been trying to explore ways of understanding the size of abuse in the UK.

    Most child abuse happens in the home, or by close family members. Child pornography rings are more complex with content being made around the world, repeatedly circulated for years though various media. A significant amount of the content is produced by minors themselves – such as selfies.

    The government has a raft of recommendations to implement from the The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse. These changes are more urgently needed like getting the police to pay attention to vulnerable working-class children when they come forward.

    Terrorism

    The UK government puts a lot of work into preventing and combating terrorism. What terrorism is has evolved over time. Historically, cells would mount terrorist attacks.

    Eventually, the expectation of the protagonist surviving the attack changed with the advent of suicide tactics. Between 1945 and 1980, these were virtually unheard of. The pioneers seem to have been Hezbollah against UN peacekeepers in Lebanon.

    This went on to influence 9/11 and the London bombings. The 9/11 commission found that the security services didn’t suffer from a lack of information, but challenges in processing and acting on the information.

    More recently many attacks have been single actors, rather than a larger conspiracy. Much of the signs available was in their online spiral into radicalisation, whether its right-wingers looking to follow the example of The Turner Diaries, or those that look towards groups like ISIS.

    Axel Rudakubana’s actions in Southport doesn’t currently fit into the UK government’s definition of terrorism because of his lack of ideology.

    I am less sure what the case would be for being able to access every Apple’s cloud twin of their iPhone. The challenge seems to be in the volume of data and meta data to sift through, rather than a lack of data.

    Pre-Crime

    Mining data on enough smartphones over time may show up patterns that might indicate an intent to do a crime. Essentially the promise of predictive crime solving promised in the Tom Cruise dystopian speculative future film Minority Report.

    Currently the UK legal system tends to focus on people having committed a crime, the closest we have to pre-crime was more intelligence led operations during The Troubles that were investigated by the yet to be published Stalker/Sampson Inquiry.

    There are so many technical, philosophical and ethical issues with this concept – starting with what it means for free will.

    What are the negative reasons for doing a technical capability notice?

    There are tensions between the UK government’s stated opinion on encrypted services and the desire to access the data, outlined in Written testimony of Chloe Squires, Director National Security, Home Office.

    The UK Government supports strong encryption and understands its importance for a free, open and secure internet and as part of creating a strong digital economy. We believe encryption is a necessary part of protecting our citizens’ data online and billions of people use it every day for a range of services including banking, commerce and communications. We do not want to compromise the wider safety or security of digital products and services for law abiding users or impose solutions on technology companies that may not work within their complex systems.

    Extra-territorial reach

    Concerns about the US PATRIOT Act and PRISM saw US technology companies lose commercial and government clients across Europe. Microsoft and Alphabet were impacted by losing business from the likes of defence contractor BAE Systems and the Swedish government.

    The UK would likely experience a similar effect. Given that the UK is looking to biotechnology and technology as key sectors to drive economic growth, this is likely to have negative impact on:

    • British businesses looking to sell technology services abroad (DarkTrace, Detica and countless fintech businesses).
    • Britain’s attractiveness to inbound investments be it software development, regional headquarter functions or infrastructure such as data centres. Having no exposure to the UK market may be more attractive to companies handling sensitive data.
    • You have seen a similar patten roll out in Hong Kong as more companies have moved regional headquarters to Singapore instead.

    The scope of the technical capability notice, as it is perceived, damages UK arguments around freedom-of-speech. State surveillance is considered to have a chilling effect in civilian discussions and has been criticized in the past, yet the iCloud backdoor access could be considered to do the exactly same thing as the British government opposes in countries like China, Hong Kong and Iran.

    Leverage

    The UK government has a challenge in terms of the leverage that it can bring to bear on foreign technology multinationals. While the country has a sizeable market and talented workforce, it’s a small part of these companies global revenues and capabilities.

    They can dial down services in the UK, or they can withdraw completely from the UK marketplace taking their jobs and infrastructure investment with them. Apple supports 550,000 jobs through direct employment, its supply chain, and the iOS app economy. In 2024, Apple claimed that it had invested over £18 billion over the previous five years.

    Precedent

    Once it is rumoured that Apple has given into one country’s demands. The equivalent of technical capability notices are likely to be employed by governments around the world. Apple would find it hard not to provide similar access to other 5is countries, China, India and the Gulf states.

    Even if they weren’t provided with access, it’s a lot easier to break in when you know that a backdoor already exists. A classic example of this in a different area is the shock-and-awe felt when DeepSeek demonstrated a more efficient version of a ChatGPT-like LLM. The team had a good understanding of what was possible and started from there.

    This would leave people vulnerable from around the world to authoritarian regimes. The UK is currently home to thousands of political emigres from Hong Kong who are already under pressure from the organs of the Chinese state.

    Nigel Farage

    From a domestic point-of-view while the UK security services are likely to be extremely professional, their political masters can be of a more variable quality. An authoritarian populist leader could put backdoors allowed by a technical capability notice to good use.

    Criminal access

    The hackers used by intelligence services, especially those attributed to China and Russia have a reputation for double-dipping. Using it for their intelligence masters and then also looking to make a personal profit by nefarious means. Databases of iCloud data would be very tempting to exploit for criminal gain, or sell on to other criminals allowing them to mine bank accounts, credit cards, conduct retail fraud.

    Vladimir Putin

    It could even be used against a country’s civilians and their economy as a form of hybrid warfare that would be hard to attribute.

    Xi Jinping

    In the past intelligence agencies were limited in terms of processing the sea of data that they obtained. But technology moves on, allowing more and more data to be sifted and processed.

    What can you do?

    You’ve got nothing to hide, so why worry? With the best will in the world, you do have things to hide, if not from the UK government then from foreign state actors and criminals – who are often the same people:

    • Your bank account and other financial related logins
    • Personal details
    • Messages that could be taken out of context
    • I am presuming that you don’t have your children’s photos on your social media where they can be easily mined and fuel online bullying. Your children’s photos on your phone could be deep faked by paedophiles or scammers.
    • Voice memos that can be used to train a voice scammer’s AI to be good enough
    • Client and proprietary information
    • Digital vehicle key
    • Access to academic credentials
    • Access to government services

    So, what should you do?

    Here’s some starting suggestions:

    • Get rid of your kids photos off your phone. Get a digital camera, have prints made to put in your wallet, use an electronic picture frame that can take an SD card of images and doesn’t connect to the web or use a cloud service.
    • Set up multi-factor authentication on passwords if you can. It won’t protect you against a government, but it will make life a bit more difficult for criminals who may move on to hacking someone else’s account instead.
    • Use the Apple password app to generate passwords, but keep the record off them offline in a notebook. If you are writing them down, have two copies and use legible handwriting.
    • You could delete ‘important’ contacts from your address book and use an old school filofax or Rolodex frame for them instead. You’re not likely to be able to do this with all your contacts, it wouldn’t be practical. If you are writing them down, have two copies and use legible handwriting.
    • Have a code word with loved ones. Given that a dump of your iCloud service may include enough training data for a good voice AI, having a code word to use with your loved ones could prevent them from getting scammed. I put this in place ages ago as there is enough video out there on the internet of me in a public speaking scenario to train a passable voice generative AI tool.
    • Use Signal for messaging with family and commercially sensitive conversations.
    • My friend and former Mac journalist Ian Betteridge recommended using an alternative service like Swiss-based Proton Cloud. He points out that they are out of the legal jurisdiction of both the US and UK. However, one has to consider history – Crypto AG was a Swiss-based cryptography company actually owned by the CIA. It gave the intelligence agency access to secure communications of 120 countries including India, Pakistan and the Holy See. Numerous intelligence services including the Swiss benefited from the intelligence gained. So consider carefully what you save to the cloud.
    • if you are not resident in the UK, consider using ‘burn devices’ with separate cloud services. When I worked abroad, we had to do client visits in an authoritarian country. I took a different cellphone and laptop to protect commercially sensitive information. When I returned these were both hard reset by the IT guy and were ready for future visits. Both devices only used a subset of my data and didn’t connect to my normal cloud services, reducing the risk of infiltration and contamination. The mindset of wanting to access cloud services around the world may be just the thin end of the wedge. Countries generally don’t put down industrial and political espionage as justifications for their intelligence services powers.

    What can criminals do?

    Criminals already have experience procuring dedicated secure messaging services.

    While both dark web services and messaging platforms have been shut down, there is an opportunity to move the infrastructure into geographies that are less accessible to western law enforcement: China, Hong Kong, Macau or Russia for instance. A technical capability notice is of no use. The security services have two options to catch criminals out:

    • Obtain end devices on the criminal:
      • While they are unlocked and put them in a faraday cage to prevent the device from being wiped remotely.
      • Have an informant give you access to their device.
    • Crack the platform:
      • Through hacking
      • Setting the platform up as a sting in the first place.

    If the two criminals are known to each other a second option is to go old school using a one-time pad. This might be both having the same edition of a book with each letter or word advancing through the book .

    So if you used the word ‘cat’ as the fourth word on line 3 of page 2 in a book you might get something like 4.3.2, which will mean nothing if you don’t have the same book and if the person who wrote the message or their correspondent don’t use 4.3.2 to signify cat again. Instead they would move onwards through the book to find the next ‘cat’ word. A sleuthing cryptographer may be able to guess your method of encryption by the increasing numbers, but unless they know the book your feline secret is secure from their efforts.

    NSA DIANA one time pad

    Above is two pages from an old one-time pad issued by the NSA called DIANA.

    The point is, those criminals that really want to evade security service understanding their business can do. Many criminals in the UK are more likely to rely on a certain amount of basic tactics (gloves, concealing their face, threatening witnesses) and the low crime clearance rate in the UK.

    Instead of a technical capability notice, these criminals are usually caught by things like meta analysis (who is calling who, who is messaging who, who is transferring money etc.), investigative police work including stings, surveillance and informers.

    Why?

    Which begs the questions:

    • Why Apple and why did they choose to serve it in December 2024?
    • What trade-offs have the UK government factored in considering the potiential impact on its economic growth agenda and political ramifications?
    • The who-and-why of the leak itself? Finally, the timing of the leak was interesting, in the early days of the Trump administration.

    I don’t know how I feel about the alleged technical capability notice and have more questions than answers.

    More information

    European Commission Final Report on Echelon  and coverage that appeared at the time of the report’s release: EU releases Echelon spying report • The Register

    Patriot Act und Cloud Computing | iX – German technology press on the risks posed by the Patriot Act

    US surveillance revelations deepen European fears | Reuters – PRISM negatively impacted US technology companies

    NSA’s Prism surveillance program: how it works and what it can do | guardian.co.uk

    The strange similarities in Google, Facebook, and Apple’s PRISM denials | VentureBeat

    Tech Giants Built Segregated Systems For NSA Instead Of Firehoses To Protect Innocent Users From PRISM | TechCrunch

    Computer Network Exploitation vs. Computer Network Attack | Schneier on Security

    EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM TO THE INVESTIGATORY POWERS (TECHNICAL CAPABILITY) REGULATIONS 2018

  • Cracking the RSA algorithm + more things

    Cracking the RSA algorithm

    I guess before we go into cracking the RSA algorithm, we need to discuss what the RSA algorithm is. The RSA algorithm is the mathematical equation behinds the RSA crypto-system. The RSA in question are Ron Rivest, Adi Shamir and Leonard Adleman who publicly described back in 1977.

    Ron Rivest literally wrote the book on algorithms.

    Note the distinction about ‘publicly’; it is important because a British boffin Clifford Cooks came up the same solution independently whilst working at GCHQ. But it was only at the end of the 1980s when open internet protocols were being developed that this kind of cryptography really found its use as an underpinning principle of public key cryptography.

    RSA is a relatively slow algorithm, so is not commonly used to directly encrypt user data. Instead it is used to transmit shared keys for faster cryptographic methods, which are then used for larger encryption–decryption jobs.

    Cracking the RSA algorithm gives access to data like credit card details, login credentials or keys to access a bigger data set. As computing power has improved the size of key used to encrypt using RSA has had to be increased in size. In 1999, 512bit length keys could be cracked using 100s of computers in parallel. 20 years later, this could be done in a third of the time on a single well-specced home computer. The safe size of keys today is estimated to be between 2048 and 4096 bits long

    Chinese claims on using quantum computing to cracking the RSA algorithm using 2046 bit length keys

    The Chinese team claim the ability for cracking the RSA algorithm at 2046 bit key length, using a quantum computer equivalent to IBM’s Osprey system to calculate the keys. Bruce Schneier’s critique on their paper pokes a lot of holes in their claims.

    Chinese researchers claim to find way to break encryption using quantum computers | Financial Times 

    Breaking RSA with a Quantum Computer – Schneier on Security 

    Cracking the RSA algorithm in 2011

    Chinese military affiliated hackers compromised the ‘seed keys’ used to support RSA Security’s products at the time. if you had known me back then, I had a grey lump with digital display on it that was called SecureID and used to access my work computer.

    IMG_2859
    SecureID tags

    SecureID was not only used in corporate environments but government contractor, research and military networks. So stealing the seed keys rendered all of them vulnerable.

    RSA finally comes clean: SecurID is compromised | Ars Technica 

    The RSA SecurID Hack: A Lesson on Protecting Your Most Critical Assets – Telos Corporation 

    RSA explains how attackers breached its systems • The Register 

    Case study: The compromise of RSA Security and the rise of cyber-espionage 

    The Full Story of the Stunning RSA Hack Can Finally Be Told | WIRED 

    No quantum computers required.

    Business

    Far More Microsoft Layoffs and Spending Cuts Than the Mainstream/Corporate/Tech Media Reports on | Techrights 

    China

    Interesting report: China’s Digital Policies in Its New Era :: EU Cyber Direct 

    Time to crack down on the CCP’s influence in Britain | Telegraph Online – China’s focus on elites has lost the opportunity in the UK: China’s buy-up of Britain sees £1bn in dividends flow back to Beijing | The Sunday Times 

    New House Select Committee seeks ‘Cold War’ victory over China – POLITICO 

    Chinese celebrities’ Covid deaths subvert propaganda push to minimise outbreak | Financial Times this will have less of an impact than the FT thinks and neither will this: Resurgent Chinese travel would reset the country’s global image | Financial Times 

    Consumer behaviour

    PR News | Get Ready for the Gen Z Onslaught – Gen Z “has both the ability and motivation to organize online to reshape corporate and public policy, making life harder for multinationals everywhere and disrupting politics with the click of the button,” according to an essay by Eurasia chairman Cliff Kupchan and president Ian Bremmer. Gen Z grew up as America’s post-Cold War dominance waned and experienced formative historical events such as the 2008 financial crisis, Arab Spring, Brexit, Trump’s election, Black Lives Matter movement, MeToo reckoning, mass shootings in the US, COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “The result is a generation radicalized by the turbulent nature of its times and the failures of leaders and existing institutions to respond,” wrote Kupchan and Bremmer. “Gen Z has broader expectations, demands and policy impulses than its predecessors, including a marked distrust of institutions and traditional channels of political change and economic achievement.” – This isn’t generational per se but related to not hitting life stages

    Culture

    I loved this short film. I grew up with F is for Fake and the more challenging Mondo series of films (Mondo Cane, Women of the World, Addio Africa)

    Economics

    How Austerity Caused the NHS Crisis | naked capitalism and mainly macro: Health service and real wage decline: why are we only now talking about trends that began over a decade ago? – desperation to ignore George Osborne’s austerity

    China Services Activity Shrinks for Fourth Straight Month, Caixin PMI Shows – Caixin Global 

    Finance

    Joint Statement on Crypto-Asset Risks to Banking Organizations – Federal Reserve System 

    We spent the New Year weekend reading market outlooks, so that you don’t have to 

    FMCG

    J&J’s consumer health unit Kenvue files for IPO, moving closer to spin-off | Reuters

    Hong Kong

    Lawyers exit Hong Kong as they face campaign of intimidationAnonymous threats sent by text message and email. GPS tracking devices placed under a car, and Chinese “funeral money” sent to an office. Ambushes by reporters working for state-controlled media. Accusations of disloyalty in the press. These are some of the methods deployed in a campaign of intimidation being waged against lawyers in Hong Kong who take on human rights cases, have criticized a China-imposed national security law or raised alarms about threats to the rule of law. While some of Hong Kong’s leading rights lawyers have been detained in the past two-and-a-half years, many others have become the target of a more insidious effort to cleanse the city of dissent – part of a wider crackdown by the ruling Communist Party on lawyers across China, say activists, legal scholars and diplomats. Michael Vidler, one of the city’s top human rights lawyers, is among them. Vidler left Hong Kong in April, a couple of months after a judge named his law firm six times in a ruling that convicted four pro-democracy protesters on charges of illegal assembly and possession of unauthorized weapons. Vidler interpreted the judgment as “a call to action” on the city’s national security police “to investigate me,” he told Reuters in an interview last month in Europe

    Ripped away from home, we are haunted by the Hong Kong taken from us | The Guardian 

    Innovation

    The UK’s dream of becoming a ‘science superpower’ | Financial Times – reminded of Harold Wilson’s ‘white heat of technology’ speech

    Japan

    Tsundoku: The art of buying books and never reading them – BBC News – yet another example of the joy of ownership

    Japan Wants G-7 to Team Up Against ‘Economic Coercion’ by China – Bloomberg – interesting when taken in conjunction with their changing defence posture

    Luxury

    adidas & Thom Browne’s Legal Battle Over “Similar” Stripes 

    12 Watch Professionals Make Bold Predictions for the Industry in 2023 – Robb Report 

    SKP Chengdu Ushers In A New Era Of The Chinese Luxury Mall | Jing Daily 

    Materials

    Fascinating details on new forms of high strength concrete

    Media

    Decade-long spending boom on original TV content expected to slow | Financial Times 

    Security

    Part of Taiwan’s most advanced anti-ship missile sent to mainland China for repairs | South China Morning Post – you had one job…. unsurprisingly the vendor involved was German supplier Leica

    Putin’s Man at the BND: German Intelligence Rocked By Russian Espionage Scandal – DER SPIEGEL 

    Nexperia calls in lawyers to save Newport Wafer Fab deal • The Register 

    Digitisation of Ukraine’s armed forces

    Technology

    Google announces official Android support for RISC-V | Ars Technica – ARM should be concerned about this

    India’s share of global iPhone production forecast to match China’s by 2027 as Apple steps up supply chain diversification | South China Morning Post 

    Facebook’s hardware ambitions are undercut by its anti-China strategy – The Washington PostThe executives discussed ways to shift components and manufacturing for a planned smartwatch from China so the company could demonstrate to U.S. customs authorities that it merited a Made in Taiwan label — instead of one that says Made in China. They thought a Made in Taiwan label would save the company on tariffs and be a better look politically. But doing so was very difficult because the supply chain for smart electronic devices is in China, the people said, and countries such as Vietnam, Taiwan and India are only starting to develop those capabilities. Company leaders also hoped to obtain a Made in Italy label for its smart glasses, made in partnership with Ray-Ban, but doing so also wasn’t feasible, the people said. Executives also looked, unsuccessfully, for ways to move manufacturing of Oculus to Taiwan.

  • Connected leadership + more

    Connected Leadership

    Connected Leadership, Powered by Brunswick | Brunswick – worth a read during your lunchtime. 9 out of 10 financial readers cite the importance of social media communications by CEOs during a crisis. There were also findings that equate CEO social presence with employer brand. Reading about connected leadership reminded me of the oft quoted wisdom that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. Connected Leadership had reminded me of research that I remember seeing around the time of the original dot com boom (and bust). I think that the research had been done by Weber Shandwick in the US; and I had heard Larry Weber cite it when he came through Europe every so often.

    At that time the connected leadership type content was focused on CEOs with a media profile. The research showed a positive correlation between a highly visible CEO, better stock market performance and greater resilience when the brand was facing challenging times. This was back when Larry Ellison, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates courted the business and ‘business of technology’ media. Like any model it can be only taken so far, as Bernie Ebbers at WorldCom, Jeff Skilling at Enron and Steve Case at AOL showed that a high profile won’t stop a terminal decline.

    Prior to Oracle’s acquisition of Sun Microsystems, then CEO was criticised for a lack of focus on the business problem. The twice weekly blog posts that marked his connected leadership style were not appreciated by activist shareholders.

    A more modern example of connected leadership would be the cult like following that Donald Trump managed to build up over the past five years in politics. A future Democratic president would like appear less on social and in the media, being more focused on the task at hand rather than demonstrating connected leadership.

    For businesses, a connected leadership style brings challenges from a regulatory point of view, could their content be sifted for potential class action suit material?

    WGSN – Future Drivers 2023 – WGSNAfter the dust settles on the tumult of 2020, companies and consumers will shift to new ways of designing, making, selling and consuming in 2023. In an age of uncertainty, executives can bank on the importance of the four C’s – connection, conservation, communication and community. This report identifies seven global drivers that will reshape the macroeconomic and business landscape in 2023, and provides key strategies that businesses can action today for future success. 

    • Radical Reform: this will be front and centre for 2023. Be prepared to be held accountable for diversity, sustainability and CSR practices 
    • Safety & Security: this will drive innovation in defensive materials, an increase in home and neighbourhood security networks, and make touchless payments and products mainstream 
    • The Tech Paradox: cobots (collaborative robots that interact with humans) and democratised digital literacy will gain ground, but on the flip side, infodemics, influencer fatigue and the politics of global technology will drive a tech reset 
    • Community 3.0: look to the growth of community supply chains, staff who are steps away from the stores, and up-skilling locals to keep community money intact 
    • Environment: From Urgency to Emergency: regenerative businesses are creating a sustainable future, while made-to-order manufacturing and nearshoring are reshaping distribution models 
    • The Recession Generation: unstable job markets and a new gig economy will drive new generational spending and consumption habits 
    • New Alliances: international relations are being reshaped and this is underscoring political tensions, with growing knock-on effects

    Lightest 5G smartphone with graphene batteryAppear is launching the lightest and first graphene battery-powered smartphone with innovative water-resistant technology. There is already a lot of interest in this smartphone. Appear has begun receiving orders and projections call for a million units sold in the first six months. The smartphone would be available in stores and major online retailers by March 2021. To meet growing demands, Appear has partnered with Foxconn India for its manufacturing needs

    Research specialist Qamcom joins European partners in 6G driveHexa-X research project is EU funded and expected to run for two and a half years with the aim of laying the foundation for next generation 6G networks. Bringing together a number of technologically advanced European partners, the Hexa-X research project aims to develop the next generation of mobile networks, namely 6G or sixth generation. The project, which is EU-funded, is expected to start in January 2021 and last for about two and a half years. The purpose of the project is to lay the foundation for a global standard and to define principles for the 6G system itself – which will serve as a base for the entire telecom industry and its future services and products. On a more philosophical level, the project’s purpose can be described as technology connecting our human and physical world with the digital world. Qamcom’s research will focus on localisation and network optimisation

    Why minimalists are maximally important » strategythe minimalist demo are predominantly suburbanites, more than half of whom (59%) are married couples with kids, with moderate household incomes. While they haven’t previously been majorly digitally inclined, the group has been making its first major foray into online shopping. Minimalist shopping activity on mobile phones and tablets was up 31% among this audience segment, with gaming activity increasing by 19% and 43% on mobile devices and consoles, respectively. Minimalists’ propensity to order online food has almost doubled since lockdown began, and marketers should be mindful that QSRs could really benefit from attracting this segment

    Boots UK sales struggle despite better than expected results for parent company | Cosmetics Business 

    The Chinese ski market: how China is going crazy for snow with the upcoming Winter Olympics 

    Banning Trump from digital platforms sets a dangerous precedent | ProMarketI find them a dangerous precedent, which concentrates power irreversibly in the hands of a few private firms. Everybody, but especially people from the Left, should be worried: soon, this power will be used against them.  If Trump violated the law with his tweets, he should be prosecuted according to the law. Why did Twitter and Facebook take the law into their own hands as self-appointed vigilantes? If his tweets did not violate the law, why did Twitter and Facebook kick him out? Twitter and Facebook, many would object, are private companies, which can create their own rules of engagement. This is certainly true. But these rules should be consistently enforced and here they are not. According to Twitter’s own statement, Trump was permanently suspended because of the following two tweets, sent on January 8:   “The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA FIRST, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future. They will not be disrespected or treated unfairly in any way, shape or form!!!” “To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th.” “These two Tweets,” writes Twitter, “must be read in the context of broader events in the country and the ways in which the President’s statements can be mobilized by different audiences, including to incite violence.” The context Twitter is referring to are the potential plans for a secondary attack on January 17—even though Trump’s tweets did not mention such plans

    Pennies to Dollars: The Problems With Amazon’s Plans for Detroit – Amazon Chronicles – sketchy property deals and minimum wage jobs

    A bit reactionary but it’s still worthwhile watching Chris Chappell interview with Winston Sterzel and Matthew Tye. Sterzel and Tye’s observations are spot on and tally with my own experience in China and Hong Kong.

    Escapist retail – Wunderman Thompson Intelligence – Digital fashion and virtual spaces are getting dreamy, engaging shoppers’ imaginations—and dissolving the traditional boundaries of retail. All of which is fine if you’re on the ‘upper leg’ of the K-shaped economic recovery. Not so great if you’re Primark. More retailing related content here.

    Well worth a read: Beatie Wolfe, digital artist and musician – Wunderman Thompson Intelligence 

    Why going global has proved so hard for the big banks | Financial Times – despite gains from globalisation in the lead-up to the financial crisis, the overall international record of the industry is poor. Just last week came a reminder of the challenges of a global bank: Deutsche Bank agreeing to pay US regulators $125m to resolve allegations that it paid bribes to win clients in the Middle East. Its not an isolated example, though Deutsche Bank does have a higher appetite for risk than many of its peers. Other examples, Goldman Sachs had to pay $3.9bn to settle the 1MDB bribery scandal in Malaysia. JPMorgan agreed to pay $264m to settle a US probe into its practice of hiring scions of the Chinese elite as its new business strategy. Its not like these bank failings are a new phenomenon. HSBC was able to buy the Midland Bank because it had been so weakened by its majority stake holding in Crocker National of California. At the time of purchase in 1980, Crocker was the tenth largest bank in the US. It has been one of the first banks in the US to use ATMs. Eventually it was sold due to the losses that Midland endured while owning it. Crocker had a large amount of bad loans on its books.

    2021 and the Conspiracies of ‘Johnny Mnemonic’ | WIREDGibson’s cyberspace was always bound up with the body. Data can be wet-wired; manipulating files requires Power Gloves and an “Eyephone.” When Johnny jacks in, it kind of hurts. Such meat-meets-metal has, in the quarter-century since Johnny Mnemonic came out, been called a failure of prediction. Our internet ended up disembodied, virtualized, socially distanced, our iPhones more of a figurative prosthesis. Yet, this last year, we sat slack at our desks, muscles atrophying, nerves attenuating, as we doomscrolled our way to new aches, new anxieties, new ailments. Some wild-eyes went so far as to claim that 5G triggered the pandemic, which is the most Gibson-sounding conspiracy of all. In Johnny’s world, the black shakes are caused not by a virus but by a signal. Epidemic through technic. There’s something in the air, no matter what you do. You’re already sick, you’re already dying. Connectivity is killing you

    Don’t Toss It, Fix It! Europe Is Guaranteeing Citizens the “Right to Repair” – expect a wide range of protests from auto manufacturers (like Tesla), to gadget makers (Apple) and agriculture titan John Deere

    Solar power – How governments spurred the rise of solar power | Technology Quarterly | The Economist – like other developments before it, solar demonstrates the need for government to play a role in innovation

    China consumer prices rise but worries persist over core inflation | Financial Times 

    Twitter vs Trump: has Big Tech gone too far? | Financial Times – Mr Trump has been barred from Facebook and Twitter due to events in the US last week. Apple, Google and Amazon have all taken steps to clamp down on Parler, the right wing social network.  This has set up a fierce debate about where the balance lies between a tech company’s right to censor users who breach their content policies versus an individual’s right to freedom of expression. A second aspect is the right for governments to regulate services versus the US approach of laissez faire – Angela Merkel attacks Twitter over Trump ban | Financial Times and a more US perspective – Superspreader Down: How Trump’s Exile from Social Media Alters the Future of Politics, Security, and Public Health – Defense One 

    Taiwan manufacturers quit China over trade tensions and rising costs | Financial Times – really interesting article. Taiwan’s biggest weakness seems to be the small and medium sized manufacturers with operations in China.

    I’ve chosen to not get drawn into the events at the Capitol in Washington DC. It is interesting that Arnold Schwarzenegger is far more articulate and coherent than the politicians in office.

    Quantum science leaps forward in China under Xi’s support: report | Apple Daily 

    Announcement for the connection problem faced by Hong Kong users|HKChroniclesFrom the evening of 6th January, 2021 (Hong Kong Time), the chief editor of HKChronicles, Naomi Chan, has received numerous reports from users located in Hong Kong. They noticed that the website was inaccessible when using the Internet service provided by some ISPs in Hong Kong. After looking into the analytics, we also found that the number of visitors from Hong Kong decreased drastically. Because of the scenario, there are some rumors on the Internet regarding to the status of service on our website – Hong Kong ISPs blocking the site. It has lots of good information on organised crime affiliated police, business people and political extremists. More Hong Kong related content here.

    Sex workers say ‘defunding Pornhub’ puts their livelihoods at risk – BBC News 

    Bitcoin Mining and Its Environmental Effects by Şerif DİLEK* & Yunus FURUNCU – an academic paper that show just how bad bitcoin is for the environment. It isn’t just bitcoin mining, but even blockchain and wallet management. TL;DR here is the money quote: Bitcoin’s energy consumption causes serious damage to the environment and faces us as one of the most significant obstacles in the development of Bitcoin.

    Concerns raised about cameras at self-service supermarket checkouts | Irish Examiner – not terribly surprising that Tesco loss prevention techniques give people the privacy creeps. But then they wouldn’t need to if the tills were manned….

    How PewDiePie is trying to dodge his taxes | Input magazine – clickbait headline, the real point is that top level influencers now are big enough to give effective tax management serious consideration

    Telegram: Contact @durov – Telegram laying into WhatsApp. But a little something to think about from seven years ago to consider before you move to Telegram: Cryptography Dispatches: The Most Backdoor-Looking Bug I’ve Ever Seen • Buttondown 

    Mark Ritson’s marketing effectiveness lessons

    • Qualitative and quantitative diagnosis
    • Clear strategic objectives
    • Long, mass-marketing brand building
    • Shorter, targeted performance
    • Tight, differentiated position
    • Heavily, consistently codified
    • Investing more than competitors
    • Astonishing creativity
  • The merge

    I first heard of the merge from Sam Altman’s blog. He said that it was a popular topic of conversation in Silicon Valley to guess when (not if) humans and machines will merge. In a meaningful way rather than just a Johnny Mnemonic-style walking data storage unit.

    When I heard of this definition of the merge, I immediately thought of the digital series H+.

    H+ The Digital Series

    H+ told the tale of a technological hack that killed people by disrupting the implants in their heads. Some of the few survivors were out of cellular network reach in the basement of multi-story car park.

    He went on to explain that it may not be a hybridisation of humans literally with technology but when humans are surpassed by a rapidly improving (general purpose) AI. The third possibility was a genetically enhanced species surpassing humans in the same way that homo sapiens surpassed the neanderthal.

    What’s interesting is that some of the people don’t give ‘the merge’ a name at all. Back during the dot com boom, when Ray Kurzweil published his book Age of Spiritual Machines it was given the name The Singularity.

    Part of the resistance to this established term was that The Singularity implies a single point in time. I don’t think Kurzweil meant it in that way. But its been almost 20 years since I read Age of Spiritual Machines, and I suspect most of the debaters have only read about it from a Wikipedia article.

    Alton points out that in some ways the merge has been with us for a good while.

    The contacts app on our devices and social networks take the place of us remembering telephone numbers. I can remember my parents landline number and the number of the first family doctor that we had. But I wouldn’t be able to tell you my parents current cell phone number; or the number of my current doctor.

    On a grander scale; general knowledge and desire to read around has been depreciated by Google and Wikipedia. Our phones, tablets and laptops are not implanted in us, but at least one of them will be seldom out of reach. I learned to touch type and I am now not conscious of how I input the text into this post. It goes from my thought to the screen. Only the noise of the keys gives away illusion of mind control as I stare at the screen. Ironically voice assistance makes me more conscious of ‘the other’ nature of the device.

    But it no longer just about memory and our personal connectedness of the devices. Our device control us and suggest what to do and when. Social media platform curation affects how we feel.

    As Altman puts it:

    We are already in the phase of co-evolution — the AIs affect, effect, and infect us, and then we improve the AI. We build more computing power and run the AI on it, and it figures out how to build even better chips.

    This probably cannot be stopped. As we have learned, scientific advancement eventually happens if the laws of physics do not prevent it.

    Sam Altman – The Merge

    Innovation often spits out the same process in several waves before it works. Before Siri, Alexa and Google home there was Wildfire. Before Wildfire there were various speech recognition technologies including Nuance for call centres, Lernout & Hauspie, Dragon Systems and Kurzweil Computer Systems. The last two were founded in the mid-1970s. SRI International’s AI research started delivering results in the mid 1960s.

    AI in its broadest terms has gone through several research booms and busts. The busts have their own name ‘AI winters’. The cadence of progress could easily be far slower than Altman imagines.

    One could easily argue that machine learning might run its natural course to technical maturity without much more improvement. Google and other technology companies are basing their work on research done at Canadian universities in the 1980s during an ‘AI winter’ characterised by a lack of basic research funding. Canada continued to support the research when others didn’t.

    Silicon Valley companies not engaging in basic research themselves. As Judy Estrin observed in her book Closing The Innovation Gap back in 2008, Silicon Valley no longer engages in ‘hard innovation’. Without that basic research; a general purpose AI envisioned by Kurzweil and Altman maybe out of reach. Which is why Silicon Valley pundits put the merge as somewhere in a 50-year window.

    Altman also caveats his prediction based on the laws of physics. Aaron Toponce : The Physics of Brute Force provides an idea of the physical limits imposed by cracking cryptography. It would not be inconceivable that a general purpose AI may hit similar challenges. More on machine learning and innovation here.