Ged Carroll

Category: ethics | 倫理 | 윤리학

Ethics: moral principles that govern a person’s behavior or the conducting of an activity. I went to school with people who ended up on the wrong side of the law. I knew more of them when I used to DJ which was my hobby since before I went to college.

I probably still have some post-it notes around the place that I used as bookmarks from when I used to work at a call centre but that was about the extent of my ethical transgressions.

My business experience meant that I dealt with a lot of unpleasant unprofessional clients, but didn’t necessarily see anything unethical in nature. When I started writing this blog I was thinking about culture rather than ethics and the most part still do.

But business and work changed. Ethics became more important:

  • When I started in social and digital campaigns I didn’t think about ethics as a standalone thing. It was just part of doing a good job. It went without saying.
  • I don’t think any of us back then would have foreseen slut shaming, trolling, online bullying, dark patterns and misinformation

Now things are different. The lack of ethics is impacting all parts of business life.

  • How ad tech data is used
  • How content is created
  • How services are designed
  • How products are made

I think that much of the problems with ethics is cultural and generational in nature. The current generation of entrepreneurs have perverted knowledge in the quest of growth hacking and continual improvement and change for its own sake. Its a sickness at the centre of technology

  • Michelin Snow Sock + more things

    Michelin Snow Sock

    The Michelin Snow Sock or to give it its proper name SOS GRIP(R) Evolution does a similar job to studded tyres or snow chains (often called RUD Chains after the German company RUD Ketten – a famous manufacturer of snow chains).

    snow sock

    The Michelin Snow Sock looks much easier to store and fit than snow chains and is likely to be less damaging to road surfaces. This new Michelin Snow Sock seems to rely on the black bands across the face of the tyre.

    A key difference is that snow chains can also be used in really muddy conditions and can be used to protect the tyres in hard surfaces such as quarries and mines – although this is usually the domain of a specialist product. You can’t doe these things with the Michelin Snow Sock.

    Inspecting a car before purchase

    Interesting tips on inspecting a car that you are interested in buying. Its interesting how democratised specialist tools have become.

    Twitter

    Professor Scott Galloway talks to Christiane Amanpour about the current economy and the rollercoaster moves at Twitter. My favourite quote from this, describing the recession as a ‘Patagonia vest’ recession affecting knowledge workers the most so far.

    Junya Watanabe Menswear Fall/Winter 2022

    I am about 10 months late to this, but Junya Watanabe did a menswear collaboration with Jay Kaye from Jamiroquai mirroring his mid-to-late 1990s style. Its a mix of indigenous wear that was popular from gap year students (or people who wanted that boho look), rave culture and Goa trance, sports wear and technical outdoor clothing.

    Here is the mini video look book that Junya Watanable made for the menswear collection.

    Here is the original video for Virtual Insanity

    Behind the scenes on how the Virtual Insanity video was made. How the effect was achieved was quite surprising.

    Shakatak

    I didn’t realise how popular jazz fusion group Shakatak was in Japan. To me there where pre-house UK dance music. I found this Japanese festival performance by them.

    The Tokyo Crossover Festival was was originally organised by the Kyoto Jazz Massive member Shuya Okino.

    It was April 2002. I was invited to the Future Jazz Festival held at Zagreb, Croatia. The well select lineup for this 3-days event was Victor Davies, Jessica Lauren, Rainer Truby, Azymuth, Zero dB and many more. The huge success all owed to Eddy & Duss and their incredible local support attracted 1500 enthusiastic people each day! Frankly, and forgive my ignorance, I was quite shocked. This was Zagreb, Croatia. The media that I was exposed to depict the negative image of an on-going civil war for all what I remember. Needless to say, I was inspired and at the same time wondered why Japan never had such festivals. Sure we have money-flowing mainstream Rock Festivals and Techno Festivals but nothing such as Deep House or Future Jazz festivals – which is surprising especially when Japan holds the biggest market share for such music. What is more depressing is that the “traditional” Jazz summer festival seems to be loosing its energy every year… I waited. I thought someone would eventually do the future-jazz festival here in Japan. There were few attempts but did not leave strong impact. Waited few more years…and thought it was time for me to take some action. I called it “Tokyo Crossover Jazz Festival”! This is the first year and I am treating it as an introduction or presentation for the successful year to come. Therefore, it will not be a gigantic outside “typical” festival but the main purpose for this first festival is to cause Crossover Jazz awareness and for artists who have same music vision to gather together. Of course, I am aiming for the fan-pleasing exciting showcases. We have a good “crossover” jazz scene in Japan and I want the fans, all over the world, to know. In the future, the festival will feature artists from Jazz, Techno, Hip- Hop, House and the music will cross all over – the ideal festival that I keep visioning and working hard for! At the end though, all I want for everyone and myself is to…have a good time!

    Shuya Okino (Kyoto Jazz Massive)

    Internet explained in five levels of difficulty

    I showed this to my Dad and he loved it. So I thought I would share it here too.

  • OOPS + more things

    OOPS

    OOPS is Meta’s online operations support system. OOPS provides access to user accounts like a sys admin on a company IT network. If you’re a Meta employee, friends or family you can get hold of a concierge service to solve account related problems. It isn’t available to outsiders.

    Facebook Sign - Menlo Park

    It seems that OOPS has been used to reassign or disable accounts for profit and access wasn’t as controlled as it should be.

    The Meta OOPS scandal made me wonder if OnlyFans performer Kitty Lixo had actually been gaslit about her account by Meta employees, rather than being helped out in return for sex. Lixo has gone from having an Instagram account with 199,000 followers to two smaller accounts with under 20,000 followers combined at the time of writing.

    “We met up and I f**ked a couple of them and I was able to get my account back two-three times,” Kitty Lixo said, recommending others with locked accounts to continue reaching out to the platform for eventual ban reversal.

    OnlyFans Star Says She Slept With Meta Employees to Get Instagram Unbanned by Nick Mordowanec (May 20, 2022) Newsweek

    China

    Morgan Stanley on how the 20th Party Congress was likely to affect the economy China Outlook: Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley and more here from SOAS: Xi’s vision for China after the 20th Congress – SOAS China Institute 

    Chinese owner of British Steel breaks investment promise | Daily Telegraph 

    Newport Wafer Fab: Anger in Beijing as UK forces Chinese tech firm to sell controlling stake | Business News | Sky News 

    China’s Birth Rate Fell to Another Record Low in 2021, Gov’t Confirms despite measures taken by the government to increase the birth rate

    Ethics

    Offered without comment: Keurig Dr Pepper In Midst Of PR Agency Review – one-year payment terms leave agencies unimpressed.

    Finance

    Binance was soliciting SG users without license, MAS says | Techinasia 

    Germany

    Mercedes - an electric car company

    VW and Mercedes’ electric-car ambitions run into trouble forcing the German firms to re-evaluate strategies | South China Morning Post – New VW CEO Oliver Blume is re-evaluating the strategies set out by former CEO Herbert Diess after a number of setbacks. Mercedes’ struggles with its top-of-the-line EV model in China could set back plans to go all-electric in key markets by 2030 – the Chinese electric market could be the graveyard of the German car industry

    Hong Kong

    ‘Here to stay’: Colchester’s Hongkongers on making new lives in the UK | UK news | The Guardian 

    Ideas

    Subscription Pricing Coming to Features Your Car Already Has – a $25-per-month charge for advanced cruise control or $10 to access heated seats? What if those charges continued long after your car was paid off?  …As vehicles become increasingly connected to the internet, car companies aim to rake in billions by having customers pay monthly or annual subscriptions to access certain features. Not content with the relatively low-margin business of building and selling cars, automakers are eager to pull down Silicon Valley-style profits. For automakers, the advantage of this model is clear. …Not only do they get a stream of recurring revenue for years after an initial purchase, they can hope to maintain a longer-term relationship with the customer and build brand loyalty, said Kristin Kolodge, vice president and head of auto benchmarking and mobility development at J.D. Power. – I suspect that this will only work if every car was on a lease agreement and if that’s the case then there are lots of negative impact from old cars that need to be written off that outweigh this business model. Secondly, there is an expectation that all of the vehicle will conform to Moore’s Law.

    Innovation

    Leading scientist calls on China to share gene data 

    Real time tool detects deep fake videos in milliseconds … 

    What about the layoffs at Meta and Twitter? Elon is crazy! WTF??? | I, Cringely – I first arrived in Silicon Valley in 1977 — 45 years ago. I was 24 years old and had accepted a Stanford fellowship paying $2,575 for the academic year. My on-campus apartment rent was $175 per month and a year later I’d buy my first Palo Alto house for $57,000 (sold 21 years later for $990,000). It was an exciting time to be living and working in Silicon Valley. And it still is. We’re right now in a period of economic confusion and reflection when many of the loudest voices have little to no sense of history. Well my old brain is crammed with history and I’m here to tell you that the current situation — despite the news coverage — is no big deal. This, too, shall pass – vintage Bob Cringely

    Japan

    Sony-Honda venture plans to tap entertainment prowess for its electric cars | Financial Times 

    Korea

    The Seoul Retail Edition – by Guest Contributor 

    Media

    Disney: return of the Jedi brings new hope — temporarily | Financial Times

    How Did AT&T’s $100 Billion Time Warner Deal Go So Wrong? – The New York Times 

    Online

    Meet Unstable Diffusion, the group trying to monetize AI porn generators | TechCrunch 

    11 (and counting) things journalism loses if Elon Musk destroys Twitter | Nieman Journalism Lab 

    Software

    SwiftKey is unexpectedly back on iOS – The Verge 

    Technology

    Qualcomm steps up Oryon battle with ARM | EE TImes 

    Telecoms

    Meta implements new timing protocol in its data centers – SiliconANGLE 

    Tools

    Kiwix on the App Store – this is available on Mac and iOS app stories. It allows you to view an offline version of Wikipedia, Project Gutenberg and Khan Academy modules. Ideal for when you’re unplugged.

    Where to find Apple’s official 872-page iPhone user manual you never knew existed | BGR 

  • Carl Schmitt + more stuff

    Carl Schmitt

    Carl Schmitt was a German jurist, legal theorist and political theorist. The common narrative around him is that he came up with the legal principles that justified most of Nazi Germany’s greatest excesses. His work has also been used to justify the Xi-era legal system in China with legal thinking leaning heavily on the work that Carl Schmitt did. But there is more to the Schmitt story than that.

    Conservative state theory

    While the current Communist Party of China thinkers see Schmitt as a like mind, the German legal system and Schmitt’s legal system would have appealed to China from the founding of modern China with the monarchy being deposed, through warlord era though to the leadership of the Kuomintang. Germany had consolidated into a modern nation and built an empire in a relatively short space of time thanks to its legal system and a conservative state theory.

    Cautionary tale of the Weimar Republic

    Post World War One, the Weimar Republic put checks and balances on the government through the courts, which was seen as a negative given the relative performance of the country. Into this political change came Carl Schmitt. Ryan Mitchell does a good job at bringing Carl Schmitt’s story to life and talk through his relevance to China through the years.

    Moving forward to Xi-era China, the Weimar Republic that Carl Schmitt lived in looks like a living nightmare in the the same way that German Empire looked like an exemplar. Secondly, socialism didn’t provide an appropriate legal system for Communist China, so they adapted the German system that the Kuomintang had used previously with Chinese socialist characteristics that Hitler would have approved of.

    Carl Schmitt comes across as a more complex figure than he has been recently portrayed.

    Consumer behaviour

    How to make friends as an adult | The Face – really interesting that The Face felt that they had to write this article. I made some of my long term friends in London during my late 20s and early 30s. Many of the readers will also have friends from college or university as well. It implies that they aren’t socialising at house parties, going to concerts, club nights or bars. Work also seems to be a spartan supply of friendships.

    Economics

    China’s Oct exports and imports contract, missing expectations | Reuters 

    Energy

    South Korea and Japan ask US to loosen EV tax credits requirements | DigiTimes 

    BritishVolt sits on the brink … | EE News 

    Ethics

    Machine-learning systems are problematic. That’s why tech bosses call them ‘AI’ | John Naughton | The Guardian 

    FMCG

    ‘China’s hottest woman’: the driving force behind crunchy chilli sensation Lao Gan Ma | China | The Guardian 

    Asahi now sells hot bottled water in Japan as an alternative to coffee or tea | SoraNews24 – the amount of my Asian friends who carry around a thermos drinking bottle of hot water makes so much sense. More combini related content here.

    Germany

    Chartbook #168: Germany’s economic entanglement with China recommend reading with: Germany Can Afford to Spurn China | Foreign Policy 

    Hong Kong

    HSBC strains reach breaking point | Financial Times – Last week, a row between HSBC and its largest shareholder, Chinese insurance group Ping An, spilled into the public arena after Michael Huang, chair of the insurer’s asset management unit, told the Financial Times the bank should break itself up and be “far more aggressive” in its cost-cutting. The extraordinary dust-up, brewing in private for several years, according to people close to the bank, first came to light in the spring when it emerged that Ping An had told HSBC management they should pursue a break-up. HSBC has largely sat on its hands in the interim, fuelling growing frustration at Ping An. “The global finance model that once dominated and shaped the global financial industry in the last century is no longer competitive,” Huang told the Financial Times. “Just divesting a few small markets or businesses” would not be enough to address the challenges. He urged the bank to “adopt an open attitude by studying the relevant suggestions carefully and prudently [ . . .] rather than attempting to simply bypass and reject them”. Ouch

    Ireland

    ‘There’s not many left now’: census shines spotlight on Britain’s dwindling Irish community | Immigration and asylum | The Guardian – The Irish came in waves that started in the 19th century and continued through the Great Depression, the post-war boom, the swinging 60s, the Thatcher era and into the 21st century, one of the great migrations. Many were unskilled labourers, or navvies; others were plumbers, teachers, nurses, dentists, writers and entertainers. Some became famous – Oscar Wilde, Fiona Shaw, Graham Norton – or had children who became famous – Shane MacGowan, Morrissey, Piers Morgan. However, last week brought confirmation that the Irish community, for so long Britain’s biggest source of immigration, is withering. Census figures showed the number of Irish-born people living in England and Wales last year numbered 324,670, a fall of 80,000, or 20%, from a decade ago, when they numbered 407,357. The UK’s Office for National Statistics says this is a long-term trend that started in 1961, when the Irish-born population peaked at 683,000, more than double the current number. Once the biggest group of those born outside the UK, the Irish are now fifth behind India, Poland, Pakistan and Romania

    Japan

    Japan to sign military pact with UK as allies eye China threat | Financial Times 

    Marketing

    The relationship between word count and engagement | Chartbeat Blog – Our analysis shows that up to almost 4,000 words, the longer article, the more engaging it will be. If your articles are falling short of the benchmarks we’ve shared, a real-time optimization tool like our Heads Up Display can show you how far readers are scrolling and give you an opportunity to make changes at the point of exit. Beyond 4,000 words, variability in engaged time grows, but that doesn’t mean there’s a ceiling. As we see with our year-end list of the most engaging stories, unique topics can require more depth than daily reporting. This doesn’t mean you should shy away from covering them. It just means you’ll need to devote more attention to optimizing these pages for engaged time.

    Airbnb Says Its Focus on Brand Marketing Instead of Search Is Working – WSJ – Airbnb Inc. said its strategy of slashing advertising spending, investing in brand marketing and lessening its reliance on search-engine marketing is continuing to pay off. Its marketing spending is now low enough that it doesn’t anticipate drastic reductions even if economic headwinds worsen next year, it said.– some really interesting feedback that implies Google has lost its position as the front door of the web despite dominance in both mobile and desktop browsers

    Security

    $2.5 billion was stolen by blockchain attackers in the first three quarters of 2022 / Digital Information World 

    Technology

    Apple’s hope for record quarterly sales damped by Zhengzhou restrictions – Apple continues to see strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models, and expects lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than previously anticipated, adding that customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products. Apple said it is working closely with our supplier to return to normal production levels while ensuring the health and safety of every worker. According to Barclays’ research notes, the COVID outbreak in Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant, which accounts for 70% of worldwide iPhone production, is estimated to affect the output of 10-12 million iPhone Pro models for the fourth quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank Securities said in a research note that according to Apple’s 10-K document filed on October 28, the company had manufacturing purchase obligations of US$71.1 billion for the third quarter, up 65% annually and 30% quarterly – a sign leading Deutsche Bank Securities to believe that Apple forecasts better iPhone growth than last year. Manufacturing purchase obligations represent non-cancelable purchase orders of components ahead of unit sales and typically covers periods up to 150 days

  • Indian hackers & more stuff

    Indian hackers

    The Bureau of Investigative Journalism have an interesting article on Indian hackers who work in the ‘hack-for-hire’ industry: Inside The Global Hack-For-Hire Industry. Indian hackers are typically used because their clients are unlikely to be prosecuted under their home country laws like the UK Computer Misuse Act. Indian hackers have gone after British journalists, businesses, NGOs and even politicians. Jay Solomon, a former journalist with the Wall Street Journal accused a US legal firm of using Indian hackers to steal emails between him and one of his sources. This was bundled up in a dossier used by the law firm to get Solomon fired from his job as a journalist.

    Phone hacking
    bin hacken | Flickr

    Business technology origins of blackhat hacking services

    India is known for its enterprise technology work. Most bank computing systems and telecoms billing systems in the UK are managed by Indian technologists out of India. The Indian hacker for hire business sprang out of a company called Appin that looked to sell clients services to help secure those services. Other companies engaged in cybersecurity for corporate clients also provide Indian hackers and tools for offensive computer work. Ethical hacking at the firm was the main business, but a lucrative sideline was blackout Indian hackers working for the highest bidder.

    Favourable environment

    Presumably the same factors that favour software programming and technology services in India also favour these blackhat Indian hackers:

    • Plentiful volume of talented software engineers
    • Relatively low cost compared to their counterparts elsewhere
    • Global connections via a diaspora for firms providing Indian hackers for hire
    • Lax or loosely enforced regulations
    • ‘Clusters’ of talent similar to the US Silicon Valley, notably Gurugram

    It’s interesting that much of the demand for Indian hackers has come from the Gulf states. Indian hackers have also worked on behalf of foreign governments including Cambodia, Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey – all of this government work was carried out with the approval and sometimes behest of the Indian government. Indian hackers working for Pakistan, with Indian government approval! For western corporate intelligence employees, who are clients of these firms, they’ve done foolish things like endorse the Indian hackers and their firms on LinkedIn.

    Beauty

    Estee Lauder cuts forecasts on China curbs, tightening inventories | Reuters 

    China

    China Gender Law: Country Tells Women to ‘Respect Family Values’ – Bloomberg – An amendment to the Women’s Rights and Interests Protection Law passed by the nation’s top legislative body on Sunday introduced a list of moral standards for women to observe. …“China is attempting to use laws to regulate and discipline women,” said Xiaowen Liang, a New York-based feminist and lawyer. “Why do you only need women to observe family values? What kind of family values are we talking about? These are very vague ideas.” – inching towards A Handmaiden’s Tale with Chinese socialist characteristics

    Biden froze out China’s ambassador. He may regret that. – POLITICO – A Washington, D.C.-based diplomat familiar with Qin’s relations with the administration said Beijing’s apparent unresponsiveness to Qin fueled skepticism about his influence back home. “There were one or two issues where the U.S. wanted his help on some things, but he just wasn’t able to do it — he didn’t seem to be totally in the loop,” the diplomat said, declining to name the issues… “Somebody got this wrong in our system — either [Qin] was more influential than we appreciated and we should have known that or he somehow snuck onto the Central Committee without us understanding that was possible,” said the former administration official. “But either way, if we’d known what we know now, we probably would have operated a bit differently and put in a little bit more energy in trying to build some trust with him.” – To be fair to the Biden Administration, I think lots of people in the PRC system were also surprised with Qin’s selection for the Central Committee and likely promotion to be Foreign Minister. And even they thought it might happen, would being nicer to him change any of the fundamental policies? And how could they have managed the optics of giving Qin more access to US officials than Amb. Burns gets to PRC officials?

    Xi vowed “political, diplomatic, economic, & law” countermeasures against “long-arm,” but few noticed 

    Consumer behaviour

    Coronavirus: Hong Kong allows restaurants and bars to stay open all night, but step ‘too little, too late’, industry leaders warn | South China Morning Post – Residents have grown used to eating dinner earlier and cooking at home during the pandemic, industry leaders say. If this habit sticks it has negative implications for food services and entertainment, but positive opportunities for FMCG, food delivery and media sectors. When I lived in Hong Kong, one thing that I noticed was the ‘insomniac’ nature of the city with late night restaurants and take-outs together with late night mall shopping all of which added to the city’s ‘Blade Runner’ vibe

    Economics

    Finding Talent to Run New Fabs Might Be Challenging – EE Times – and a good deal of the problem is educational institutions not being run for the benefit of their countries and having perverse incentives. Related to that 4 Schools Seek to Help Intel, SkyWater Staff New Fabs – EE Times 

    China stops publishing data metrics of vast domestic apps market amid declining internet service revenue, faltering economy | South China Morning Post – The Chinese government has stopped reporting data metrics of domestic apps for the last three months without explanation, which makes it difficult for outside analysts to assess the health of this industry in the world’s largest internet and smartphone market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), one of the government agencies responsible for regulating apps, started omitting this market segment’s data metrics from its monthly reports from July, according to the latest information on its website

    Finance

    The Crypto Art Crash: What Remains of the NFT Hype – DER SPIEGEL – NFT Lose on Average 92 Percent of Their Value

    FMCG

    Everything you need to know about Spam — Quartz Weekly Obsession — Quartz – “Spam became iconic in Asia because it was a taste of America without being in America. It’s like drinking Coke. While you can’t afford to travel to America, you can eat and drink America or enjoy a little piece of America in your life.” — Ayalla Ruvio, consumer behavior researcher and professor in the department of marketing at Michigan State University

    Germany

    Business As Usual: German Companies Ignore Major Risks in China – DER SPIEGEL – The doctrine of “transformation through trade,” to which Germany adhered for decades, was exposed as an illusion by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a truth that even Germany’s president accepts. “We must become less vulnerable and reduce one-sided dependencies,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier told public broadcaster ARD, “and that applies to China in particular.” Germany has seen trade with the People’s Republic quadruple since 2005, but during that same period, China has developed into a full-blown dictatorship. The West’s hopes for further market-economy reforms have been dashed. President Xi Jinping, who had his power cemented  last week at the 20th Party Congress, is fully committed to a state-controlled economy. “Henceforth: Marx gets precedence over the markets,” says Jörg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China – worthwhile reading in conjunction with: We don’t want to decouple from China, but can’t be overreliant – POLITICO – this op-ed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz is embarrassing

    Health

    Irreversible Contraception: Why Female Sterilization Is Both Widespread and Under Fire – DER SPIEGEL 

    Japan

    Govt. to create special budget category to develop air, sea ports for defense purposes – The Japan News 

    Materials

    How Graphene Is Innovating the Medical Device Sector – EE Times 

    Media

    The mystery of Biden’s deadlocked FCC – The Verge – media sector and telecoms lobbying BS

    Online

    Social media will never be the same | Yahoo Finance Tech with Daniel Howley  – interesting analysis on the business challenges of Meta and Twitter

    Security

    Beijing’s Long Arm: China’s Secret Police Stations in Europe – DER SPIEGEL 

    Japan considering hypersonic missile deployment by 2030 – Nikkei | Reuters 

    Hong Kong exiles in UK unnerved by ‘weak’ response to beating of protester | Hong Kong | The Guardian 

    Google proposes list of five principles for IoT security labeling – SiliconANGLE 

    Technology

    POSITs, CFA Tech Help Save Compute Time at JAXA – EE Times 

    Web of no web

    Yes the metaverse is a pile of hokum, but the buzz behind it in markets like Hong Kong and Singapore is palpable: HSBC | Tyson Yoshi x Serrini 《DuoVerse》Music Show 

    Polo Ralph Lauren does a collaboration with Fortnite – also has a good nod towards diversity.

  • Subprime attention crisis

    Subprime attention crisis is a short book, or a long essay depending on the way you want to look at it. It was written by Tim Hwang.

    Sub Prime Attention Crisis

    About Tim Hwang

    Hwang is a lawyer working for email newsletter platform Substack. Prior to this he worked in a US think tank attached to Georgetown University: Center for Security and Emerging Technology and in public policy at Google focused on machine learning. So he brings a deep set of knowledge to writing Subprime attention crisis. One also has to bear in mind that his current employee Substack is based on the online media model moving from online advertising driven to subscription driven.

    Timing is everything

    I read this book over a couple of days at the beginning of this month. By this time, Meta and Alphabet has published quarterly results that were below what investors expected with falling sales. Add into the mix that the problems that Twitter and Snap have had (which are are bigger issues than just down to the dynamics of the online advertising market), all of which makes this book feel timely.

    On the other hand, one could also argue that much of the crisis had already landed. Ad tech businesses like Rubicon Project have either gone under or merged with their peers creating a massive amount of consolidation. The latest wave of consolidation happened in 2020 – 2021.

    Meta-specific issues

    Even with Meta and Alphabet there are business specific issues. Meta has struggled to compete effectively with TikTok. The poisonous nature of debates on Facebook, together with an aging audience on the platform hasn’t helped. In fact it’s a wonder that the context collapse that the platform has suffered from for at least the past six years hadn’t dragged it down yet. WhatsApp has helped enrich Facebook data and provided a channel for business services. At the time Facebook bought the business partly because Zuckerberg needed a brain trust for the future. The brain trust is gone and Zuckerberg’s dive into the Metaverse looks very similar to Apple’s peak John Sculley moment with the Knowledge Navigator concept. You can see glimpses of the Knowledge Navigator in the smartphone, the iPad, the now abandoned WikiReader product or the use of contextual information and national language processing like Siri. Apple didn’t waste the kind of money that Meta has spent chasing an illusory vision of the future.

    Alphabet-specific issues

    I was surprised that Alphabet growth had lasted this long based on the following considerations:

    With mobile, Google also pivoted a different type of search from product search to where is my nearest coffee shop with free wifi and has managed to sell search ads against them. This meant that Amazon and eBay managed to capture a lot of product searches, with consumers only hitting up Google afterwards and Amazon’s advertising has been eating Google’s lunch. Secondly a lot of the high street and neighbourhood shops have been eaten alive by food delivery services and this was then exasperated by the COVID which has changed at least some people’s consumer behaviour

    Historically, Google has been too focused on looking for multi-billion dollar opportunities which haven’t panned out and closed down smaller services that were making money and bringing in attention. In essence, over the years they have thought Google Reader, the Google Search Appliance, Google Health, Boston Dynamics and several other projects were the big payday. They weren’t, but they were respectable business opportunities, just too small for Google to want to pursue. In its wake Google had destroyed entire sectors, or turned them into cottage industries such as enterprise search and knowledge management, RSS newsreaders autonomous robots

    Web search in general has become less effective at doing deep research for consumer and B2B needs – no more support for boolean operators is a case in point. This has had some tech forward netizens wondering if the likes of Reddit fulfils the vision of knowledge search in place of Google and Alphabet being concerned about young people using TikTok as their local search box instead

    “something like almost 40% of young people when they’re looking for a place for lunch, they don’t go to Google Maps or Search, they go to TikTok or Instagram.”

    Google internal report quoted by Business Insider

    YouTube seems to struggle getting brand building advertising dollars in the face of TikTok, Instagram and this explains why you saw a decline in sales over 2 percent. Instead you see a lot of D2C product ads a la day trading and drop shipping courses advertised. Part of this might be down to the product. YouTube has been screwing over creators and creators have made it clear that they’re not happy. You don’t need to go to YouTube if you get the directors cut of your favourite creators content on Patreon or Curiosity Stream. Censorship of political analysis content around China or Ukraine seems to be particularly bad. 

    Back to Subprime attention crisis

    Hwang in Subprime attention crisis points out many of the things that agency employees and owners have known for years:

    • Online advertising effectiveness has declined compared to its performance 25 years ago
    • Audiences don’t see a lot of the ads that are displayed. Different reports will give you different numbers on this
    • Online advertising is destroying the very media industry that its content is shown on
    • Online advertising fraud is a big problem
    • Online advertising business practices are an even bigger problem with up to 70 percent of of online programmatic advertising spend going to advertising technology intermediaries such as The Rubicon Project (now Magnite) and Xaxis
    • This has allowed businesses like Procter & Gamble and adidas to reduce advertising spend at no loss in effectiveness. In the case of P&G Subprime attention crisis highlights how they cut $200 million in online advertising spend, moved that spend on to offline media like radio and print AND managed to increase their reach by 10 percent.

    More on adidas via its inhouse head of media Simon Peel

    One of the most notable things for me was being introduced to the work of Australian based academic Nico Neumann who has done some great research on online advertising effectiveness related areas including Frontiers: How Effective Is Third-Party Consumer Profiling? Evidence from Field Studies.

    So nothing surprising for insiders, but….

    Hwang marshals his facts well. Which is what you would expect from a lawyer. He uses analogous examples from the US financial services sector including the 2008 financial crisis. The book itself is 141 pages in length and there is a substantial section detailing his sources. Subprime attention crisis is based exclusively on desk research.

    More on the book here.