Ged Carroll

Category: finance | 은행업

Finance is a really odd section for me to have. I don’t come from a finance background, I have no interest in fin-tech. Yet it makes its appearance here on this blog.

When thinking about this category, I decided to reflect on why its here. It’s usually where curated content sits, rather than my own ideas.

The reality of life in the west is that everything has become financialised. As I write this as people think about web 3.0, they are thinking about payment systems first and working about utility later. This implies that the open web we know won’t be part of the metaverse in terms of ideas or ethos.

Instead of economic growth consumer spending depends on different ways of creating credit. Its no accident that delayed payments finance company Klarna is the biggest thing in European e-commerce at the time of writing this page.

Back when I started writing we were heading into the financial crisis of 2008, the knock on effects of that could still be felt a dozen years later and was a contributing factor to Brexit and Trump victories. The ‘occupy’ movement was catalysed by the financial crisis and then turned into something else. For instance it became a pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong.

We had the implosion of financial brands like Lehman Brothers and the Royal Bank of Scotland. This created a lack of trust in business, the media and the government.  We are still seeing that play out today, from cryptocurrency to conspiracy theories and a lack of trust by the public in experts.

  • Jeremy Zawodny + other news

    Jeremy Zawodny

    Leaving Yahoo! (by Jeremy Zawodny) – this is big, as Jeremy bleeds purple. Jeremy Zawodny is to Yahoo! what Matt Cutts would be to Google. Jeremy was active in the MySQL community. The Jeremy Zawodny blog one has helped build relationships for Yahoo! in the developer community and attract potential employees to the company. The departure of Jeremy Zawodny hints at not everything being ok in the big Y!.

    Consumer behaviour

    How We Carry Our Mobile Phones | PSFK – Trends, Ideas & Inspiration

    ippr – Behind the Screen: The hidden life of youth online

    Google lets users measure the power of words – By Eric Auchard SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Number-crunchers can rejoice as Google Inc offers deeper access to the underlying figures for users’ Web searches, giving some insight into trends based on the relative popularity of various words.

    Design

    Baskets / Fruit bowls / Centrepieces – Girotondo, Fruit Holder Alessi – wishlist item

    Yiying Lu – the creator of Twitter’s failwhale illustration to show when the service infrastructure is overloaded

    Finance

    Digital Evangelist: More bad news for Mobile Services – interesting piece on mobile banking

    Marketing

    How to protect your online reputation | Article | Homepage articles

    Lufthansa – podcast series with travel tips

    PR Squared: A Radical Suggestion for the Social Media Release – I’m not sure about this one

    Strong Pound Tips – eBay produced guide to getting the most from their service

    Media

    Google quickly, quietly becomes PC to TV bridge builder » VentureBeat

    Techdirt: CDs Have Another Thing To Fear: Vinyl? – the long march of vinyl back to dominance, listeners of the world throw off your digital shackles

    Online

    Traffic map by the guys at Capital Radio – Many of the people who created this are former Yahoos

    Fleishman-Hillard Digital Influence Index 2008

    Philippines

    Communities Dominate Brands: The country with largest social networking migration is not South Korea or Japan or Scandinavia, it is the Philippines – Asian countries show us the way. More related content here.

    Shopping

    Minamoto Kitchoan Home Page – amazing Japanese sweets in Piccadilly

    Technology

    Survey Says 8 in 10 Businesses Now Use Macs – Switched

    Edelman Digital – Orkut doesn’t seem so funny anymore

    Microsoft to buy semantic search engine Powerset for $100M plus

    Community news – Ubuntu Eee – fast optimised Ubuntu install for the Asus eeePC now available

    Web of no web

    Real racing in a virtual world: a new gaming format

    Wireless

    Digital Evangelist: Some quick thoughts

    TG4 Online – Irish TV station with an equivalent service to the iPlayer

  • Sunday Miscellany

    You know when you’re part of the the technorati when: you’ve had your comments login for Valleywag before they threw the door open to the proletariat. Valleywag is the gossip site du jour for the tech sector, following on from the PC era Notes From The Field that featured in InfoWorld.

    Christmas Cracker ticket

    Whilst everyone at Fortune magazine gets excited that a candid interview with Bill Watkins of Seagate Technology has an admission that consumers use their ever larger hard drive to hold more porn; they manage to gloss over the real telling comments that offer more than a brace of Valleywag articles.

    The M&A boom: The Valley is no longer “about building a company and a culture. It’s about making money for the top guys. If you look back to Intel (Charts) and Fairchild, they set out to build a company that would become massively large. Google (Charts) was another good example. They waited a long time. They wanted to build a big company. People don’t think like that now.” That includes, Watkins continues, YouTube. “YouTube is like eBay. The founders didn’t know what they were doing. The consumers just took hold of it.”

    The private equity boom: Seagate went private in 2000 – in a $2 billion buyout led by Silver Lake Partners – only to go public again in 2002, giving Watkins insight into the current privatization wave. “It’s all about investors getting short-sighted. They’ve lost their patience. There’s nothing these private equity firms do that Fidelity couldn’t do. If you’re Fidelity, and you own $40 million of my business, and you want a meeting to discuss how my business could be run more efficiently, I’ll take the meeting. I’ll listen. But that’s not the way things work. When you go private, the only thing you think about is going public again.”

    Silicon Valley is running a risk in losing the key thing that separates it from Bangalore, Cambridge Mass. and Epsoo Finland. The culture. This is what makes engineers work days and nights to code great products and attracts some of the brightest people from around the world.

    The short-termism that Watkins goes on about shows how the Valley is no longer seen as separate to mainstream corporate America; but you can’t run a technology company in the same way as a biscuit company.

    On the way back from Liverpool I managed to read Irresistible! Markets, Models and Meta-Value in Consumer Electronics by Bailey and Wenzek. Given that the book was published by IBM and the authors are business consultants for IBM it was no accident that the future of consumer electronics is powered by cell processors and embedded Linux.

    What is interesting is the way Bailey and Wenzek see a blurring of the line between a product and the adjunct services like the iPod and iTunes. They also predict an electronics industry with only 25 per cent of the players that are currently in the marketplace and highlight the needs for localised products for local consumers. More book reviews here.

  • Pop Truth and Power at the Coca-Cola Company by Constance Hays

    The journey back north gave me time to read Constance Hays expose of the accidental success that is the Coca-Cola company Pop Truth and Power at the Coca-Cola Company.

    The book was a bit repetitive in parts and could have been reined in with some proper direction and editing, but that’s a problem of the editor rather than the author per se. Despite these flaws it provided an interesting insight into how a company had become such a colossal success in spite of itself and a parable on what happens when you try and shaft distribution channel partners.

    The Coca-Cola Company used interesting accounting arrangements and stuffed its distribution channel in order to deliver results. But this just moved revenue allowed them to book revenue early rather than creating business growth. In this respect is similar to the way IBM started selling rather than leasing mainframes to book sales early whilst personal computing ate into its business market. It used an off-balance sheet transaction to set up a separate distribution company and then buy up its partners bottling operations. Eventually this arrangement together with product disasters like New Coke and Dasani caught up with them

    Unlike Enron these weren’t bad people, they were just trying to keep Coke enjoying the kind of success it had always been in a changing world. The changing world increasing dominated by savvy consumers and operators like Wal Mart that have a touch of the night about them. Where it gets interesting is how someone like Warren Buffett could get taken for the ride by the Coca-Cola Company.

    It is full of high-drama like directors being called to meetings in distant aircraft hangars, being fired by key shareholders and then all of them going home in their own Gulfstream jets – quality, you couldn’t make Pop Truth and Power up, even if you wanted to.

  • Level3

    Totaltele.com had an interesting report from Dow Jones Newswire how Level3 the backbone network provider had been exhibiting Enronesque traits.

    Level 3’s capital-intensive business model is questioned (subscription required) by Helen Draper highlights how Level3 is having to invest huge amounts of money to make just a little money back, hurting its working capital. This was one of the factors that encouraged all the creative accounting at Enron.

    I have a bit of related history. Back in the day I was involved in launching Enron Broadband Services in Europe. The operation was a start-up with just three bright Americans who were sent over to kick things off. I got them sorted with their first UK mobile phones, which were prepaid devices on Orange.

    My team was responsible for introducing them to the European telecoms media, the telecoms analyst community and key contacts at the major peering networks in London. I thew the most awkward party ever. A whole pile of UNIX and Cisco experts ate nouveau cuisine in a minimalist restaurant that required a cloak room assistant to help you find the exit door in the bathroom. My job at that time wasn’t made any easier by Level3. In a classic case of the Emperor’s new clothes or dot com hubris, Enron had a complex PowerPoint deck and a story that  didn’t make much sense. At the time Level3 was both a supplier of capacity to Enron Broadband Services and a determined critic.

    It’s then CEO James Crowe was a vocal critic of the Enron Broadband Services business model according to journalists that I had spoken to. Which made my job so much harder.  Of course, some of Crowe’s criticism was justified and none of us really had an idea of how much of a mess Enron actually was. It is ironic to think that Level3 might be treading a similar path. More telecoms related content here.

  • How We Got Here

    Over at R/C Towers we have been a bit quiet being all bookish, reading Al Qaeda by Jason Burke, When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein and a preview PDF of Andy Kessler’s forthcoming book How We Got Here.

    Through a former work colleague of mine, I managed to get an invitation to a lecture run by The Policy Exchange, a UK think-tank. The lecture was given by Jason Burke on the subject of Islamic terrorism. I found the lecture enlightening as it highlighted the fragmented, loosely connected, fluid nature of Islamic extremism. The credibility of Mr Burke’s lecture was heightened by the amount of ‘FCO and Home Office’ staffers in attendance. Burke’s book expands on the themes of his lecture and goes into much more detail. He writes in a clear and concise style that gets a lot of information over very quickly. One of the big takeouts is the long term difficulty in achieving victory in the war on terror by hard measures alone.

    The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management was something I was only vaguely aware of, as I was too focused on keeping up with the latest technology news starting my PR career representing TMT clients. When Genius Failed documents how arrogance, dogma and market conditions almost tore apart the world’s stock markets. It is a very easy read and tells the story of the hard and soft issues behind the collapse. The collapse affected some of the biggest names in Wall Street economics including Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, both of whom were responsible for the Black-Scholes model used by investors to calculate the ‘true value’ of a share or other financial instrument.

    (In a six-degrees of separation sort of way, one of my friends had met Myron Scholes when they went for an interview at Salomon Bros many years ago. The meeting went badly, Scholes was described to me as very arrogant and opinionated. Though in When Genius Fails he comes across as one of the more human characters.)

    Finally, How We Got Here tells the story of how the technology sector and the market economy got were it went today. Written by financier, perfect-market advocate and writer Andy Kessler, he traces the technology sector from the steam engine, patents from when they were awarded by royal warrant and stocks and shares from the privateering ways of Sir Francis Drake. Whilst you may not agree with Kessler’s views on economics (he famously riled Wired magazines readership with an op-ed advocating getting rid of the US Postal Service), he writes in an intelligent, accessible and humorous fashion. I would go as far as to put his forthcoming book as essential reading for anybody looking to work with modern technology companies alongside Accidental Empires by Robert X Cringely and Steven Levy’s Hackers.