Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.
I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.
Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.
I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.
I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.
Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.
I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.
I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.
I am fortunate to be an awards juror for the second time. This is for the Adforum PHNX advertising awards which attracts entries from around the world.
As part of the process I responded to some interview questions. I hope that my old gaffer Tony Gresty appreciated my quoting of him decades later and was surprised that there wasn’t pushback about my assertion of a ‘post-social’ marketing era.
What motivates you to be part of the PHNX Jury, and what do you hope to bring to the judging process?
Before I worked in advertising, I served an apprenticeship in plant process engineering. My old gaffer who was responsible for me had a few sayings. One of which was practice sharpens skill. By being a judge, I hope that I am helping people within the industry around the world to sharpen their skill. Seeing great challenging work and asking myself how it fits the customer and client needs in turn, helps further sharpen my skill as a strategist. TL;DR (too long; didn’t read) altruist generosity?
PHNX has always been about celebrating creativity in all its forms. What new perspectives or disciplines do you think deserve more recognition in award shows today?
Strategy has the Effies, BUT its focus is larger than creativity with a major focus on efficiency and effectiveness rather the creative process. Strategy always provides the ‘assist’ with single-minded insight and creative JOTBD (job to be done), but is never the ‘goal scorer’ to use an American sports stats metaphor. I think that creativity is not only about the creative, but also the context where the creative is placed – which brings in the disciplines of project management’s orchestration, production’s craft and media planning. I think this is going to become far more important as we go towards a post-social era.
Which countries or regions do you think are leading the creative field right now? And which emerging markets should we look out for?
A really interesting question. Leading is probably the wrong phrase to use, but there are markets that are under-estimated. Thailand and the Philippines have well-deserved reputations for emotional storytelling. Year-after-year when I look at lunar new year adverts Malaysia hits well above its weight given the size of the market.
Japan has been consistently delighting advertising folk for the past five decades.
Probably a better question to ask me after I have been through this year’s award entries.
What trends or cultural shifts do you think will define the most impactful creative work this year?
With everything that’s going on, I think we’ll need more humour. Trends within the advertising industry are also leaning towards a better mix of formats. As an industry we over-index on social vs. attention, efficiency and effectiveness for large brands. So we’ve seen a renaissance in OOH amongst other formats.
There is also a return to basics: creative consistency, fluent objects, the power of storytelling and humour. Finally consumers are more interested in consuming more longer form audio and video content, so what a creative execution might look like I hope is very different.
If you could give one piece of advice to agencies and creatives submitting their work, what would it be?
Be single-minded in terms of category consideration. My biggest criticism of last year’s PHNX award entries was not about the quality of the work per se. Many of the entries had a given creative was put in for consideration for the wrong category. And it was the same entries doing it over-and-over again. If it isn’t relevant it’s just going to get ignored or get under the skin of the judges. In the same way that a poorly-placed ad that is slapped all over the place without consideration would have a similar effect in the real world.
Rant over: I wish everyone the best of luck, finally don’t be disheartened. All of the work was of a high standard, choosing winners is hard.
Which creative minds are inspiring you the most right now?
In the widest creative sense I am working my way through veteran Hong Kong film director Johnnie To‘s back catalogue; some of his works like Breaking News feel like exceptionally contemporary given our media environment. A couple of creatives using AI in a really smart way are Omar Karim aka @arthur_chance on instagram and the Dor Brothers. Agency work-wise VCCP’s immersive installation for Transport for London and a small Malaysian shop called Days Studios (whose bread-and-butter work is usually weddings!), yet, did a fantastic job producing a Chinese New Year ad for a cosmetic treatment clinic Aglow Studio – not what you’d call a big client yet it felt like a bigger production than many large brands. Go Google the ad ‘hiss of prosperity’ and watch it on YouTube.
Majorana 1 is a new processor that would be used in a quantum computer. Majorana 1 is an 8 qubit processor. This is a relatively modest processor, IBM’s Heron processor clocks in at 156 qubits. The reason why creator Microsoft was excited about Majorana 1 was about the underlying mechanism. This depends on a ‘topoconductor’ – a new type of material that provides better control and scalability. So Microsoft envisages with topoconductor million plus qubit systems that would fulfil the full potential promise of quantum computing.
Majorana 1 is viewed as having potential to move current work on artificial intelligence further. Generative AI is essentially probabilistic in nature. There is an almost Bayesian relationship happening as an LLM guesses based on its training data to date. Quantum computing promises exploring multiple options all at once, which would aid probabilistic problem-solving.
Thankfully, Microsoft’s video explanation of Majorana 1 provides a good primer on how quantum computing works and the role that a topoconductor plays.
Majorana 1 is named after Italian physicist Ettore Majorana who theorised about the particle being used.
Ben Miles has covered the skepticism around the science underpinning Majorana 1.
40 billion enemies
This Westinghouse film from the 1940s on refrigeration and the dangers of diseases made me wonder about what the film-makers would have thought about our current wellness crazes including RFK Jr’s prognostications on vaccines and pasteurisation.
The diesel-punk aesthetic is strong in the vehicles portrayed at the start of the film from trains to propellor powered planes and a clean-looking semi-wagon design. And it has some great life hacks for getting the most out of your refrigerator, some of which I didn’t know and my Mum loved the tips.
The Pisanos
It isn’t often nowadays that you see ‘spec’ ads any more. This spec ad including the behind the scenes documentary afterwards were all created using Google Deep Mind Veo 2 to create all the characters and shots.
There are still tell-tale elements that the video is based on generative AI. Part of the reason for the swift editing is the gradual breakdown due to the probabilistic nature of the generative AI process to do what is being asked for it.
In the Mood for Love & 2046
I had never seen many of these interviews that provide an oral history of In theMood for Love&2046 by Wong Kar wai. It goes into more depth on the creative process of films than I had seen previously. I also didn’t realise how much these films overlapped on the shooting schedule.
There is no way in the AI augmented film industry that anything could happen like In the Mood for Love could happen now. As a bonus here is a 2024 Olay advert that featured Maggie Cheung.
Welcome to my February 2025 newsletter, I hope that your year of the snake has gotten off to a great start. This newsletter marks my 19th issue – which feels a really short time and strangely long as well, thank you for those of you who have been on the journey so far as subscribers to this humble publication. Prior to writing this newsletter, I found that the number 19 has some interesting connections.
In mandarin Chinese, 19 sounds similar to ‘forever’ and is considered to be lucky by some people, but the belief isn’t as common as 8, 88 or 888.
Anyone who listened to pop radio in the mid-1980s to mid-1990s would be familiar with Paul Hardcastle’s documentary sampling ’19’. The song mixed narration by Clark Kent and sampled news archive footage of the Vietnam war including news reports by read by Walter Cronkite. 19 came from what was cited as the average age of the soldier serving in Vietnam, however this is disputed by Vietnam veteran organisation who claim that the correct number was 22. The veteran’s group did a lot of research to provide accurate information about the conflict, overturning common mistakes repeated as truth in the media. It’s a handy reminder that fallacies and trust in media began way before the commercial internet.
New reader?
If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here.
Things I’ve written.
Zing + more things – HSBC’s Zing payments system was shut down and was emblematic of a wider challenge in legacy financial institutions trying to compete against ‘fintech startups. I covered several other things as well including new sensor technology
The 1000 Yen ramen wall is closing down family restaurants across Japan. A confluence of no consumer tolerance for price elasticity due to inflation driven ingredients costs is driving them to the wall. Innovation and product differentiation have not made a difference.
Luxury wellness – why luxury is looking at wellness, what are the thematic opportunities and what would be the competitors for the main luxury marketing conglomerates be successful.
Technical capability notice – having read thoroughly about the allegations that Apple had been served with an order by the British government to provide access to its customer iCloud drive data globally – I still don’t know what to think, but didn’t manage to assuage any of my concerns.
Books that I have read.
World Without End: The million-copy selling graphic novel about climate change by Jean-Marc Jancovici and Christophe Blain. In Japan, graphic novels regularly non-fiction topics like text books or biographies. A French climate scientist and illustrator collaborated to take a similar approach for climate change and the energy crisis. Their work cuts through false pre-conceptions and trite solutions with science.
Laws of UX by Jon Yablonski. Yablonski breaks down a number of heuristics or razors based on psychological research and how it applies to user experience. These included: Jakob’s Law, Fitt’s Law, Hick’s Law, Miller’s Law, Peak-End Rule and Tesler’s Law (on complexity). While the book focuses on UX, I thought of ways that the thinking could be applied to various aspects of advertising strategy.
I re-read Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products by Nir Eyal. Eyal’s model did a good job at synthesising B.J. Fogg’s work on persuasive computing, simplifying it into a model that the most casual reader can take and run with it.
Kapferer on Luxury by Jean-Noël Kapferer covers the modern rise of luxury brands as we now know them. Like Dana Thomas’ Deluxe – how luxury lost its lustre Kapferer addresses the mistake of globalised manufacturing and massification of luxury. However Kapferer points out the ‘secret sauce’ that makes luxury products luxurious: the hybridisation of luxury with art and the concept of ‘incomparability’. The absence of both factors explain why British heritage brands from Burberry to Mulberry have failed in their current incarnations as luxury brands.
Black Magic by Masamune Shirow is a manga work from 1983. Masamune is now best known for the creation of Ghost In The Shell which has been turned into a number of anime films, TV series and even a whitewashed Hollywood remake. Despite the title, Black Magic has more in common with space operas like Valerian & Laureline by Pierre Christin and Jean-Claude Mézières than the occult. In the book Masamune explores some of the ideas which he then more fully developed in Ghost In The Shell including autonomous weapons, robots and machine intelligence.
Doll by Ed McBain. Doll was a police procedural novel written in 1965 that focused on the model agency industry at the time. The novel is unusual in that it features various artistic flourishes including a model portfolio and hand written letters with different styles of penmanship. The author under the McBain pen name managed to produce over 50 novels. They all have taunt dialogue that’s ready for TV and some of them were adapted for broadcast, notably as an episode of Columbo. You can see the influence of McBain’s work in the likes of Dick Wolf’s productions like the Law & Order, FBI and On Call TV series franchises.
Things I have been inspired by.
Can money make you happy?
Past research indicated that happiness from wealth plateaued out with a middle class salary. The latest research via the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania indicates that might not be the case instead, earning more makes you happier and there might not be a point at which one has enough. The upper limit on the research seems to have been restricted by finding sufficiently rich research respondents rather than natural inclination. As a consumer insight that has profound implications in marketing across a range of sectors from gaming to pensions and savings products.
AgeTech
I came across the concept of ‘agetech’ while looking for research launched in time for CES in Las Vegas (7 – 11, January 2025). In the US, the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) and American Association of Retired People (AARP) have put together a set of deep qualitative and quantitative research looking at the needs of the ‘aged consumer’ for ‘AgeTech’. AgeTech isn’t your Grandma iPad or your boomer CEO’s laptop. Instead it is products that sit at the intersection of health, accessibility and taking care of oneself in the home. The top five perceived age technologies are connected medical alert devices,digital blood pressure monitors, electric or powered wheelchairs/scooters, indoor security cameras, and electronic medication pill dispenser/reminders. Their report 2023 Tech and the 50-Plus, noted that technology spending among those 50-plus in America is forecast to be more than $120 billion by 2030. Admittedly, that ’50-plus’ label could encompass people at the height of their career and family households – but it’s a big number.
It even has a negative impact on the supply side of the housing market for younger generations:
The overwhelming majority (95%) of Americans aged 55 and older agree that aging in place – “the ability to live in one’s own home and community safely, independently, and comfortably, regardless of age, income, or ability level” – is an important goal for them. This is up from 93% in 2023.
The Mayfair Set v 2.0
During the summer of 1999, a set of documentaries by Adam Curtis covered the reinvention of business during the latter half of the 20th century was broadcast. I got to discover The Mayfair Set much later on. In the documentaries it covered how the social contract between corporates and their communities was broken down and buccaneering entrepreneurs disrupted societal and legal norms for profit. There is a sense of de ja vu from watching the series in Meta’s business pivots to the UK government’s approach to intellectual property rights for the benefit of generative AI model building.
It probably won’t end well, with the UK population being all the poorer for it.
The Californian Ideology
As to why The Mayfair Set 2.0 is happening, we can actually go back to a 1995 essay by two UK based media theorists who were at the University of Westminster at the time. It was originally published in Mute magazine.
This new faith has emerged from a bizarre fusion of the cultural bohemianism of San Francisco with the hi-tech industries of Silicon Valley. Promoted in magazines, books, TV programmes, websites, newsgroups and Net conferences, the Californian Ideology promiscuously combines the free-wheeling spirit of the hippies and the entrepreneurial zeal of the yuppies. This amalgamation of opposites has been achieved through a profound faith in the emancipatory potential of the new information technologies. In the digital utopia, everybody will be both hip and rich. Not surprisingly, this optimistic vision of the future has been enthusiastically embraced by computer nerds, slacker students, innovative capitalists, social activists, trendy academics, futurist bureaucrats and opportunistic politicians across the USA.
It reads like all these things at once:
A prescient foreshadowing from the past.
Any Stewart Brand op-ed piece from 1993 onwards.
The introduction from an as-yet ghost written book on behalf of Sam Altman, a la Bill Gates The Road Ahead.
A mid-1990s fever dream from the minds of speculative fiction authors like Neal Stephenson, William Gibson or Bruce Sterling.
What the essay makes clear is that Peter Thiel, Larry Ellison and Elon Musk are part of a decades long continuum of Californian Ideology, all be it greatly accelerated; rather than a new thing. One of the main differences is that the digital artisans no longer have a chance to get rich with their company through generous stock options.
Even Steve Jobs fitted in with the pattern. For a hippy he drove a 5 litre Mercedes sports car, parked in the handicapped spaces in the Apple car park and had a part in firing Apple’s first gay CEO: Michael Scott because of homophobia and Scott’s David Brent-like handling of Black Wednesday. It may be a coincidence that Tim Cook didn’t come out publicly as gay until over three years after Steve Jobs died.
… a European strategy for developing the new information technologies must openly acknowledge the inevitability of some form of mixed economy – the creative and antagonistic mix of state, corporate and DIY initiatives. The indeterminacy of the digital future is a result of the ubiquity of this mixed economy within the modern world. No one knows exactly what the relative strengths of each component will be, but collective action can ensure that no social group is deliberately excluded from cyberspace.
A European strategy for the information age must also celebrate the creative powers of the digital artisans. Because their labour cannot be deskilled or mechanised, members of the ‘virtual class’ exercise great control over their own work. Rather than succumbing to the fatalism of the Californian Ideology, we should embrace the Promethean possibilities of hypermedia. Within the limitations of the mixed economy, digital artisans are able to invent something completely new – something which has not beenpredicted in any sci-fi novel. These innovative forms of knowledge and communications will sample the achievements of others, including some aspects of the Californian Ideology. It is now impossible for any serious movement for social emancipation not to incorporate feminism, drug culture, gay liberation, ethnic identity and other issues pioneered by West Coast radicals. Similarly, any attempt to develop hypermedia within Europe will need some of the entrepreneurial zeal and can-do attitude championed by the Californian New Right. Yet, at the same time, the development of hypermedia means innovation, creativity and invention. There are no precedents for all aspects of the digital future. As pioneers of the new, the digital artisans need to reconnect themselves with the theory and practice ofproductive art. They are not just employees of others – or even would-be cybernetic entrepreneurs.
They are also artist-engineers – designers of the next stage of modernity.
Barbrook and Cameron rejected the idea of a straight replication of the Californian Ideology in a European context. Doing so, despite what is written in the media, is more like the rituals of a cargo cult. Instead they recommended fostering a new European culture to address the strengths, failings and contradictions implicit in the Californian Ideology.
Chart of the month: consumer price increases vs. wage increases
This one chart based on consumer price increases and wage increases from 2020 – 2024 tells you everything you need to know about UK consumer sentiment and the everyday struggle to make ends meet.
Things I have watched.
The Organization – Sydney Poitier’s last outing as Virgil Tibbs. The Organization as a title harks back to the 1950s, to back when the FBI were denying that the Mafia even existed. Organised crime in popular culture was thought to be a parallel corporation similar to corporate America, but crooked. It featured in the books of Richard Stark. This was despite law enforcement stumbling on the American mafia’s governing body in 1957. Part of this was down to the fact that the authorities believed that the American arm of the mafia were a bulwark against communism. Back to the film, it starts with an ingenious heist set piece and then develops through a series twists and turns through San Francisco. It was a surprisingly awarding film to watch.
Nakita – Nakita is an early Luc Besson movie made after Subway and The Big Blue. It’s an action film that prioritises style and attitude over fidelity to tactical considerations. The junkies at the start of the film feel like refugees from a Mad Max film who have happened to invade a large French town at night. It is now considered part of the ‘cinéma du look’ film movement of the 1980s through to the early 1990s which also features films like Diva and Subway. Jean Reno’s character of Victor the Cleaner foreshadows his later breakout role as Leon. It was a style of its time drawing on similar vibes of more artistic TV ads, music videos, Michael Mann’s Miami Vice TV series and films Thief and Manhunter.
Stephen Norrington’s original Blade film owes a lot to rave culture and cinéma du look as it does to the comic canon on which it’s based. It’s high energy and packed with personality rather like a darker version of the first Guardians of The Galaxy film. Blade as a character was influenced by blaxploitation characters like Shaft in a Marvel series about a team of vampire hunters. Watching the film almost three decades after it came out, it felt atemporal – from another dimension rather than from the past per se. Norrington’s career came off the rails after his adaption of The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen did badly at the box office and star Wesley Snipes went to jail for tax-related offences.
The Magnificent Seven– I watched the film a couple of times during my childhood. John Sturges had already directed a number of iconic films: Bad Day at Black Rock and Gunfight at The OK Corral. With The Magnificent Seven, he borrowed from The Seven Samurai. It was a ‘Zappata western’ covering the period of the Mexican revolution and was shot in Cuernavaca, Mexico. The film did two things to childhood me: made me curious about Japanese cinema and storytelling. There are some connections to subsequent Spaghetti Westerns:
Eli Wallach played a complex Mexican villain in bothThe Magnificent Seven and Leone’s The Good, The Bad & The Ugly.
The visual styling of the film is similar to spaghetti westerns, though the clothes were still too clean, Yul Brynner’s role as the tragic hero in black is a world-away from the traditional Hollywood coding of the good guys wearing white hats (or US cavalry uniforms).
The tight, sparse dialogue set the standard for the Dollars Trilogy and action films moving forward
Zappata westerns were the fuel for more pro-leftist films in the spaghetti western genre. While The Magnificent Seven still has a decidedly western gaze, it took on racism surprisingly on the nose for a Hollywood film of this era.
Watching it now as a more seasoned film watcher only sharpened my appreciation of The Magnificent Seven.
Breaking News by Johnnie To feels as much about now as it when the film was shot 20 years ago. First time I watched it was on the back of a head rest on a Cathay Pacific flight at the time. Back then I was tired and just let the film wash over me. This time I took a more deliberate approach to appreciating the film. In the film the Hong Kong Police try and control and master the Hong Kong public opinion as a robbery goes wrong. However the Hong Kong Police don’t have it all their own way as the criminals wage their own information campaign. This film also has the usual tropes you expect from Hong Kong genre of heroic bloodshed films with amazing plot twists and choreographed action scenes along with the spectacular locations within Hong Kong itself. Watching it this time, I got to appreciate the details such as the cowardly dead-beat Dad Yip played by veteran character actor Suet Lam.
Useful tools.
Current and future uncertainties.
This could be used as thought starters for thinking about business problems for horizon scanning and scenario planning. It’s ideal as fuel for you to then develop a client workshop from. But I wouldn’t use something this information dense in a client-facing document. You can download it as a high resolution PDF here.
Guide to iPhone security
Given the propensity of phone snatching to take over bank accounts and the need to secure work phones, the EFF guide to securing your iPhone has a useful set of reminders and how-to instructions for privacy and security settings here.
Novel recommendations
I got this from Neil Perkin, an LLM-driven fictional book recommendation engine. It has been trained on Goodreads (which reminds me I need to update my Goodreads profile). When I asked it for ‘modern spy novels with the class of John Le Carre’ it gave me Mick Herron’s Slow Horses, Chris Pavone’s The Expats and Chris Cumming’s The Trinity Six. All of which were solid recommendations.
Smartphone tripod
Whether it’s taking a picture of a workshop’s forest of post-it notes or an Instagrammable sunset a steady stand can be really useful. Peak Design (who were falsely accused of being a ‘snitch‘) have come up with a really elegant mobile tripod design that utilises the MagSafe section on the back of an iPhone.
Apple Notes alternative
I am a big fan of Apple Notes as an app. I draft in it, sync ideas and thoughts across devices using it. But for some people that might not work – different folks for different strokes. I was impressed bu the quality of Bear which is a multi-platform alternative to the default Notes app.
The sales pitch.
I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.
HSBC’s Zing shuts down. It didn’t manage to compete effectively against Revolut and Wise. Zing provided cheap foreign exchange. On the face of it HSBC had a number of use cases in its main retail banking markets that would have made sense.
Hong Kong:
7+ percent of the population are expats. This has been pretty constant over previous decades, though people are constantly coming and departing. A big group of these communities are domestic workers from the Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. All of whom would benefit from cheap foreign money transfers.
Like other developed Asian countries, many young Hong Kongers study abroad. Having a way to cheaply transfer money to and from Hong Kong would be useful for this second group.
Finally Hong Kong has a diaspora, with families being spread across the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada.
UK:
30+ percent of Londoners were born outside the UK. Overall, the UK had ethnic minorities which make up 8 – 10 percent of the population. Many of them have multi-generational links with their homelands.
The NHS in particular has a large proportion of skilled foreigners working for them from Filipino intensive care nurses to Greek X-ray technicians.
Zing decided to launch only in the UK. Despite HSBC’s footprint, it didn’t grab the visibility or market share achieved by Revolut or Wise. It also failed to make money and HSBC seems to have taken a shorter term view to succeed or quit compared to its startup competitors. One could charitably view Zing as a correct view of the ‘fast failure’ model, if learnings from it are taken from it by HSBC and applied effectively.
Zing is emblematic of Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma where established companies lose market share as they fail to disrupt themselves to compete against new upstart businesses.
Financial innovation is hard. Barclays closed down their mobile payment system Pingit, NatWest stepped back from its digital bank offering and Vodafone has struggled to expand M-Pesa.
US TikTok ‘refugees’ make surprise move to China’s ‘RedNote’ | FT – Xiaohongshu’s technical team were not ready for the complexity of a western audience. What’s interesting is that the move was a political statement to US politicians and a tacit rejection of Meta’s competitor platforms very soon after their ‘pivot to free speech’.
Vintage | Hi-Fi News – modern reviews on classic hi-fi models that give you a realistic understanding about how they compare to the current state-of-the-art. A number of the pieces come off much more favourably than I was expecting.
Obsolete Sony are doing a great job at documenting Sony’s history:
Kameron Hurley: There Have Always Been Times Like These – Locus Online – Hard times are coming, when we’ll be wanting the voices of writers who can see alternatives to how we live now, can see through our fear-stricken society and its obsessive technologies to other ways of being, and even imagine real grounds for hope. We’ll need writers who can remember freedom. –Ursula K. Le Guin
Luxury
ISSUE #1 — ARTSUMERISM – Power Dynamics by COPE – massification of luxury goods might have taken the artisan out of luxe. But has enabled it to develop an art collaboration somewhere between patron and influencer relationship.
Shoemaking experts Rose Anvil interview Fitasy on the advantages and challenges of using additive manufacturing for shoes. Fitasy provide a more realistic perspective on the circular economy benefits of filament printing at the end of the interview.
Will Video Kill the Audio Star in 2025? | Vulture – I find it a bit odd as an idea, but then I do listen to a lot of talking heads YouTube channels without looking at the participants such as TLDR, Chip Stock Investor et al and much of the CNBC content I listen to is an audio track from their TV feed.
UK’s elite hardware talent is being wasted. | Josef – this reminds me a lot of working in the chemical and petrochemical industry at the start of my career. When enough people opt out the capability collapses in on itself.
I have worked at Interpublic twice during my career. Once at the very start of my career and more recently at McCann Health. I was never vested in Interpublic stock and I don’t own any Interpublic or Omnicom shares. This is not financial advice I am not telling you what you should do.
This post is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, or a solicitation of any vote or approval, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction.
I am pointing out the bits in discussions that I found interesting, and some bits that I found deathly dull, but pertinent.
The shape of it
The acquisition would be done by issuing stock. It wouldn’t involve Omnicom’s cash reserves or raising debt to make the purchase. Following the deal, the new Omnicom would be owned by
60.6% of former existing Omnicom shareholders
39.4% of former Interpublic shareholders
Deal expected to close in the second half of 2025. Once it is closed Omnicom expected to get $750 million in cost savings over the following two years. Combined cashflow of more than $3 billion a year.
Investment analyst call
The investment analyst call was led by Omnicom’s John Wren and featured Phillippe Krakowsky. One of the main factors raised on the call by Wren was the reduction on debt to EBITDA of Omnicom from 2.5x to 2.1x. The combined organisation also had a more balanced maturity profile on debt.
The deal impacted scale in two ways:
Efficiencies due to scale.
Increased capacity to borrow and fund future purchases.
What was less clear from the call was the value to customers. Healthcare was cited as an area of opportunity as both businesses had a substantial healthcare marketing offering. But nothing on how to capitalise on the opportunity.
What I didn’t hear was how the combined business was going to get to 750 million of savings, but that they were confident that they could hit that number in two years after the deal closed.
I also didn’t hear a clear position on how the combined firm would deal with the drain of advertising revenue from marketing conglomerates and media companies to platforms. There was some lip service given to being able to better address generative AI related change as a larger group.
Finally there was no analysis, or consideration about how Omnicom and Interpublic would surpass their competitors innovation. Instead the focus was purely on existing combined size.
Shareholder value
At the time of the announcement, the deal was said to offer a premium in terms of value to Interpublic shareholders.
As for Omnicom shareholders, they claimed: The transaction will be accretive to adjusted earnings per share for both Omnicom and Interpublic shareholders.
Slow gains – which might make taking that money out of their existing shares and instead putting it in a S&P 500 tracker ETF seem more attractive.
Industry animal spirits (aka what people were saying in my feeds and op-eds)
The reaction on social platforms was shrill and overwhelmingly negative. The reasons given included:
The inevitable job cuts.
The internal preoccupation that comes from two large organisations coming together.
The lack of clarity about unique benefit that the new company would provide.
The two-year inward focus on consolidation would allow more innovative competitors (depending who you listened to this would be Accenture, Brandtech, Dentsu, Publicis, Stagwell) gain further ground.
Later on, the discussion moved on towards the reactionary nature of the discussion itself.
From within Interpublic itself, I heard concern about the future from people in different parts of the business. This was down to a lack of internal communication rather than anything specific in nature.
Left unchecked, it could be morale sapping and might encourage some of the best talent to leave for more stable environs.
Update: January 17, 2025 – Campaign magazine podcast. The most interesting argument made in the podcast was that the media buying and creative arms of Interpublic are seen as having little-to-no-value and that deal from Omnicom’s perspective was all about Interpublic’s data platform.
Any self-respecting investment banker worth their salt would be able to break the conglomerate down into constituent parts and sell it off (as what has happened with Interpublic agencies R/GA and Huge already).
In the PR and social / influence sector Golin and Weber Collective would make natural groupings to be spun off and still with enough scale to compete on the global stage.
From a creative agency perspective, it would be a similar situation with Mullen Lowe and McCann World Group.
IPG Health looks like it had already been pre-packaged for private equity when it was carved away from its advertising groups and nominally has a full suite of offerings to provide the pharmaceutical sector clients.
For bits of networks that you can’t sell. For instance if the purchaser doesn’t want to have an agency office in Malaysia (Malaysia is only in here hypothetically, in reality I have no idea why more global corporate headquarters aren’t located in the Cameron highlands); you can recoup some of your money by facilitating a management buyout. These are more common than you realise.
Instead the podcast participants think that clients are just all about first and third party data platforms. I would argue that’s a simplistic view that ignores:
The relative complementary nature of the Interpublic and Omnicom networks in terms of product spread and geographical reach. In most markets, one or the other network has an appreciably stronger position. Where there is consolidation needed, this would most likely result in redundancies in the Asia Pacific and European regions.
Client brands need for continued brand building and the current chaos in the major platforms pivoting to the new presidential administration’s direction.
‘Bad neighbourhoods’ for brand content will adversely affect the ability of brands to advertise or promote themselves effectively. It’s harder to build effective brand memory structures in what consumers are likely to perceive as a hateful, or hostile environment.
Finally there is the the little acknowledged fact that social platform advertising is disproportionally supported by D2C marketing and varying forms of hucksterism from Temu to get-rich schemes. This isn’t the kind of businesses that fill up the client ranks of large marketing conglomerates like Omnicom and Interpublic.
What business thinking says
Harvard Business Review claims that 70 to 90 percent of mergers and acquisitions fail. By comparison, anywhere between 25 and 80 percent of large IT projects fail. 70 to 85 percent of new consumer product launches fail. TL;DR running a business is tough.
Secondly, Omnicom and Interpublic grew historically through acquisitions. Which would mean that they understand how to move a business forward and integrate their new acquisition.
The business model that marketing services conglomerates historically worked on was a mix of an arbitrage play, driving integration and efficiencies.
Arbitrage
Omnicom and Interpublic both relied on a few ways to gain an arbitrage benefit:
Private companies are generally cheaper to buy than publicly listed firms. It’s a matter of economics, publicly listed firms list in a closer to perfect market. Secondly, buyout contracts to get the management to meet financial targets that facilitate either a faster financial payback or a cheaper price on the business.
Larger companies like Omnicom can borrow money at more favourable terms than a small to medium-sized business. Larger companies that have lower levels of leverage will be able to get money in a more favourable format than more highly leveraged business of the same size.
Driving integration
Historically these groups take a light touch on integration for agencies where the capabilities are common to more than one agency, WHERE the acquired agency is hitting the ambitious financial targets set by the holding company. Integration in terms of integrated new business pitches and common selling of new products or capabilities.
This might be where the client is looking for an integrated solution. Or it might be where it makes sense to pool resources to deal with a new area like Amazon advertising and retail media or generative AI services.
Once a newly acquired business has become ‘part of the furniture’ and the founders have stepped away, you are more likely to see it become more deeply knitted into the holding group business fabric. This is likely to include common systems and processes: time-tracking software, HR and talent management software, accounting software, cloud services and productivity software.
Efficiencies
Sources of efficiencies overlap integration through standardisation and being able to buy in bulk. A second source of efficiency is consolidation of common business functions:
Accounting / finance
Business development
Freelance staff pool
Human resources and recruitment
IT
Knowledge management
Legal services
Open questions
Both Omnicom and Interpublic have experience of integrating and spinning off parts of their businesses. What’s different about the Interpublic acquisition is that the scale involved is different from anything else that’s been undertaken in the sector.
How will this be done successfully?
What (additional) value is in the resulting business for clients?
ADWEEK polled marketers to better understand their attitude to the merger. On balance they weren’t supportive of the deal. Twice as many respondents were negative about the deal compared to those who felt positively about it. The good news was that almost 60 percent either hadn’t made their mind up or were on balance neutral. At this point I need to caveat the results with the note that there wasn’t a breakdown on the types of respondents in terms of their role and seniority.
But it implied that Omnicom had a serious communication job to be done convincing wider stakeholders on the merits of the deal.
The problem might be greater than telling a better story. By some estimates 60% of Interpublic and Omnicom scopes of work are allegedly already understaffed – if true, likely putting customer satisfaction at risk. And that’s before the reduction in headcount to match the need for cost savings.
