Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • The media of me

    media of me post

    Wadds came up with 13 theses about the media of me with more than a nod and a wink to The Cluetrain Manifesto. The main thrust of it is that the media model is broken, technology has a lot of the blame at its door.

    Picking through it are some worthy aspirations, but it was diagnosing symptoms rather than causes. I believe that the main problems in the media of me are wetware, not software. People and civil society rather than networks and servers.

    Technology has its own momentum

    As with many things, the reality and where we are going is much more complex. Kevin Kelly posited that technological progress is a natural force of its own. He called this force the ‘technium’. It is not moral, it doesn’t understand good or bad. It can be slowed down for a time, but never stopped.

    Even during the European dark ages, the golden age in Muslim countries saw Arab scholars:

    • Collate classical knowledge
    • Translate it into their own language
    • Build upon the body of knowledge

    This knowledge came back into Europe. It helped provide a foundation for the renaissance.

    We’re not going to be able to stop bots or algorithms. As they improve; their impact will be harder to discern. There will be a tension in online platforms; shareholder value versus good citizenship.

    Digital is a winner takes all world

    As with many previous technology markets such as the PC and smartphone operating systems online is an oligopoly of two. Digital media provides a disproportionate amount of benefit to very few platforms.

    Facebook and Google count for 85-90% of online advertising growth.

    In China, online media is dominated by Tencent and Baidu. We could ‘Balkanise’ the media landscape. But that would mean a poorer experience for users outside the US and China. The technology sector does not have:

    • Commercial scale in funding
    • Sufficient talent
    • Comparable addressable markets

    Timms & Heimans hypothesis of ‘new power vs. old power’ rubs up against technology as an uncomfortable vector.

    This all means that the tensions in society, civic society and societal discourse is accelerated and amplified.

    From the perspective of technology platforms this isn’t their problem. They are only tackling it with reluctance, they don’t have a silver bullet solution.
    In their eyes:

    • ‘Online’ isn’t a problem, it is the breakdown in social norms, which are then amplified and gamed online
    • In the real world we’re insulated from views unless we chose to explore alternatives. Algorithms have amplified this process further to create a filter bubble. Algorithms are only mimicing our natural desires. This is mirrored in the lack real-world discourse and polarisation of views
    • Algorithms are accused of having a reductive effect on an individuals breadth of media consumption. News feed algorithms jobs are to make platforms money. Before their widespread use netizens widely flocked to chatrooms and forums with a similar narrow focus. News readers using RSS which would allow individuals to read widely have proved to be only a niche interest

    Reading widely is important to be being well informed, but its a conscious choice that people have to make. But in order to read widely one has to be:

    • Sufficiently educated to be confident in their reading ability
    • Confident enough to ignore any scorn that might come from ‘books, learning and being an expert’
    • Sufficiently curious to have the motivation to read
    • Having sufficient time to be able to read

    These bullets are affected by quality of education, social norms and income. If you are just getting by with a series of side hustle jobs you might too time poor to read widely.

    These are not universal traits in society. In the UK the idea of the self-educated literate working-man who goes to classes at the Mechanics Institute is long dead. That wasn’t done by Facebook or Google.

    The notion of an easily swayed populus wasn’t an invention of Cambridge Analytica, Google or Facebook. The Roman poet Juvenal famous for the concept of ‘bread and circuses’ would see something similar in populist politics. From Brexit, to Germany’s AfD the focus on diversion, distraction and immediate satisfaction ‘palliative’. A significant amount of common people are selfish in nature and often pay little attention to wider concerns.

    A quote from near the end of Jean-Paul Satre’s play No Exit sums it up quite well

    “All those eyes intent on me. Devouring me. What? Only two of you? I thought there were more; many more. So this is hell. I’d never have believed it. You remember all we were told about the torture-chambers, the fire and brimstone, the “burning marl.” Old wives’ tales! There’s no need for red-hot pokers. HELL IS OTHER PEOPLE!”

    Whilst in a democracy, all opinions should have the opportunity to be voiced; should they have a right to be heard? Should politicians really reflect the will of the people? I think there is a strong argument to be made against it. I am not advocating authoritarian rule, but that we need leaders who reflect on the greater good. Edmund Burke – one of the founding fathers of British conservatism is a widely cited example of a politician who didn’t reflect the will of the people. Burke recognised that democracy can create a tyranny over unpopular minorities. He didn’t consider politicians to be delegates; conduits for votes without moral responsibility.

    He is widely cited as being a better man for it:

    • Burke viewed the British conduct in India under the East India Company immoral
    • He advocated representation for American colonists
    • Acknowledgement of wrongdoing by the Crown in America and an appropriate apology

    Facts versus Emotion

    Facts and emotion have always duelled and facts have frequently come off the worse for it. Western politicians from Adolf Hitler to Barrack Obama have little in common except being successful exponents of rhetoric and emotion in their speeches. Technical skills and knowledge don’t make the cut. A classic example of this is the dissonance between the advice of John Redwood as a strategist with Charles Stanley versus his political stance on Brexit. Mr Redwood knows what works as a politician.

    Those that wield emotion now, have a greater understanding of how it works. It is why populist organisations win. It is why experts fail to persuade voters to act in their own interest. That won’t change with technology but with stonger, harsher electoral commission powers.

    Fact versus Fiction

    Yellow journalism and fiction has been with us for as long as civilisation existed. It’s modern roots are in the American media industry of the late 19th century, as publishers battled for circulation. They work because audiences love ‘good stories’. A good story is one that:

    • Surprises
    • Entertains
    • Reinforces our own beliefs

    American journalist Frank Mott listed the following characteristics of :

    • Scare headlines
    • Lavish use of images
    • Faked expertise: misleading headlines pseudo-science and false learnings

    All of Mott’s points sound like a thoroughly modern media playbook. Yellow journalism pioneers Hearst & Pulitzer were only stopped by public vilification and shame. The Pullitzer Price, like the Nobel Prize was a penitent act at the end of a successful  commercial career in media. Hearst & Pullitzer were owner-proprietors, it is a lot harder (though not impossible) to shame a public company today. The bigger issue is that a century of mass-media practice has lowered the bar in standards for ‘new media’ companies. A brutal legislative machine that would replace compliance through guilt with compliance through fear is a possible solution. However the legislative executive by its nature tends to favour the wealthy.

    More information
    What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly
    Trend Watch: New Power v. Old Power by Beth Comstock
    No Exit and Three Other Plays by Jean Paul Sartre
    Satires by Juvenal
    Media of me: 13 theses

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  • Tencent Ad Hub + more news

    Tencent Ad ‘Hub’ Connects Brands And Chinese Consumers | The Holmes Report – interesting that they have created a hub for this, the data implications and opportunities are huge. Tencent Ad Hub builds on the huge data set that Tencent already has with WeChat

    Energy

    Amid global electric-car buzz, Toyota bullish on hydrogen – not surprising to proof against lithium bubble

    FMCG

    McDonald’s flips fortunes with back to basics approach – they seem to yo-yo between price/convenience and product innovation. I wish they would bring back drip coffee

    Luxury

    Why Luxury Brands’ Approach to “Chinese Aesthetics” Fail | Jing Daily – interesting read with great examples. I’ve even noticed Shanghai Tang making a few mistakes

    Media

    Facebook blocks viral website Unilad’s page  | Telegraph – it is foolish to build something purely on a platform you don’t own

    Trust Indicators let you know more about a publisher on Facebook | TheNextWeb – guess this is part of the attempt against fake media, but its only a small part of the solution

    Here’s What You Should Be Talking About Instead of Video | Digital – AdAge – (paywall)

    The Economist unwinds: the luxury of print | The Drum – print as ‘lean back’ content

    Online

    Flickr: The Help Forum: Sorry, the photo couldn’t be added to the group because it is already in the maximum number of group pools. – Oath hasn’t been in the driving seat all that long and there are already issues in platform management. This follows on from shutting down the Yahoo! Finance data APIs

    Security

    How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, not Engaged Argument by King, Pan & RobertsChinese regime’s strategy is to avoid arguing with skeptics of the party and the government, and to not even discuss controversial issues. We show that the goal of this massive secretive operation is instead to distract the public and change the subject, as most of the these posts involve cheerleading for China, the revolutionary history of the Communist Party, or other symbols of the regime (PDF) – fascinating study, more online related content here.

    Technology

    Sony: Colour Matching Between OLED and CRT | EETE LED Lighting – interesting that CRTs we’re still the reference standard (reg wall) (PDF) – Trinitron still counts for something

    The best laptop ever made – Marco.org – Marco nails it, the newer machines fall short and require a bag of dongles

  • Apple Knowledge Navigator + other things

    Apple Knowledge Navigator

    Apple Knowledge Navigator was a rewarming of Vannevar Bush’s ideas in his essay ‘As We May Think that’ was published in the July 1945 issue of The Atlantic. There is a clear line between Vannevar Bush’s notional Memex machine and the Apple Knowledge Navigator.

    While Bush had the good sense to realise that a device with all of a user’s books, records, and communications had value. It reminded me a lot of the modern smartphone or the Wikireader. But there was less consideration with regards organisation and search in the Memex.

    These were some of the challenges that Apple thought through in this 1987 concept film.

    The Apple Knowledge Navigator concept film had really interesting search concepts in it. It is a shame that we’re nowhere near where Apple thought search and natural language processing would have been in 2007. This is still a concept video for today.

    Business

    Apple should shrink its finance arm before it goes bananas – The Economist – the risks associated with Apple’s cash mountain

    Media

    Update on Our Advertising Transparency and Authenticity Efforts – Facebook Newsroom – desperately trying to get ahead of regulation

    China Box Office: ‘Geostorm’ Blows to $33 Million Win as ‘Blade Runner’ Flops – Variety – interesting that Blade Runner cratered. I talked to a couple of friends and found out that the first film was not known in China, even amongst film buffs. Secondly the Chinese name was very misleading – moviegoers were expecting a film about a killer.

    How many people see your content on each digital channel? | The Drum  – bookmark for heuristics

    Retailing

    Amazon gains wholesale pharmacy licenses in multiple states | stltoday.com – this is going to blow up the share performance of Walgreens, CVS etc etc. More related content here.

    Security

    Facebook denies ‘listening’ to conversations – BBC News  – probably not the microphone, but would be surprised if they aren’t dipping into chat data or beyond

    Software

    Huawei AppStore and Huawei Video Service heading to Europe in 2018 – Gizchina.com – interesting move challenging Google

    LG K7i (LGX230I) – Smartphone With Mosquito Away Technology | LG India – if this wasn’t being sold on a legitimate LG site I would question if this was a shanzhai phone with fake LG branding. Its an interesting idea though

  • Great Scud Hunt + other news

    Great Scud Hunt

    What the Great Scud Hunt Says About War With North Korea | War Is Boring – pretty grime reading. The Great Scud Hunt was a key aspect of the Gulf War. The Great Scud Hunt pitted allied special forces units against the Iraqi army which had scattered its Scud launchers across the desert. The Great Scud Hunt was important to stop Israel coming into the war and fracturing the alliance against Iraq. it was also to prevent scud missile attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and cities. Despite the terrain being reasonably flat and barren, the allies weren’t as successful the Great Scud Hunt as they would have liked. By comparison North Korea is mountainous and covered in vegetation making the job orders of magnitude harder. North Korean missiles could target the US, Japan and the whole of South Korea

    DD-ST-92-07789
    A relic of the Great Scud Hunt – a missile being examined after having been shot down in the desert by a Patriot missile

    Economics

    3D printing a threat to global trade | ING – Research report with hyperbole

    Legal

    INMA: Pros, cons of EU’s General Data Protection Regulation for publishers  – GDPR could lead to a reduction in programmatic ad spend because advertisers will struggle to measure whether their ads lead to purchases, according to Eric Berry, CEO of TripleLift. There’s uncertainty about how the law will be enforced, but if users have to give consent to individual publishers, demand-side platforms, and attribution vendors, the attribution companies won’t have enough data to make accurate measurements

    Luxury

    Supreme Said Close to Deal with Carlyle | Business Of Fashion – was the Louis Vuitton deal just rolling out the carpet for private equity interest?

    Media

    My new chapter: joining Google to better explain search & help bridge the gap – Danny Sullivan is a great person to fill the hole left by Matt Cutts and more. Sullivan’s status as the godfather of search marketing gives him the kind of authority and audience few others have

    Online

    A Farewell to AIM: AOL Instant Messenger Shutting Down in December – ExtremeTech – wow. The ironic thing is that messenger services could (and should) have been the WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger of today

    Retailing

    How supermarkets choose where to open … and where to close | Cities | The Guardian – even retailers don’t like chavvy areas

    Security

    The Uber app can secretly spy on iPhone screens – BGR – mother fucker…

    Screwdriving. Locating and exploiting smart adult toys | Pen Test Partners – one more security issue to worry about

    Guess what Chinese travellers are bringing back home? VPNs, lots of them | South China Morning Post – exaggerates the volume of desire for unfettered access – outside the intelligentsia, most won’t care

    Yahoo says all of its 3bn accounts were affected by 2013 hacking | Technology | The Guardian – how is this only coming out now?

    Technology

    Why isn’t Apple Pay taking off? | The Drum – and other NFC payment technologies for that matter

    Survey: Facebook (FB) is the big tech company that people trust least — Quartz – its only 1,600 Quartz readers

    High Sierra’s Disk Utility does not recognize unformatted disks | Tinyapps – a lot of a fuck up there Apple, although its now fixed by a security update. Related – Think twice before encrypting your HFS+ volumes on High Sierra | Carbon Copy Cloner – big issue

  • Out and about: Blade Runner 2049

    *** No plot spoilers*** Where do you start when talking about Blade Runner 2049 – the most hyped film of the year?

    Blade Runner 2049 starts up some 20 years after the original film. It captures the visuals of the original film, moving it onwards.  The plot has a series of recursive sweeps that tightly knit both films together which at times feels a little forced, a bit like the devices used to join Jeremy Renner’s Bourne Legacy to the Matt Damon canon.

    Blade Runner 2049

    The 1982 film took the neon, rain and high density living of Hong Kong in the late summer and packaged it up for a western audience.  Ever since I first saw  it represented a darker, but more colourful future. I felt inspired, ready to embrace the future warts and all after seeing it for the first time.

    The new film is a darker greyer vision largely devoid of hope. You still see the Pan Am and Atari buildings of the first film, now joined with brands like Diageo. The police cars are now made by Peugeot. It also captures the visual language of the book, something that Scott hadn’t done in the original to the same extent. In the book, Dick (and the Dekkard character) obsess on how the depopulated world’s crumbling ephemera is rapidly becoming dust.

    Visually the film dials down its influences from Hong Kong, Tokyo or Singapore and instead borrows from the crumbling industrial relics of the west and third world scrap driven scavenging from e-waste in China and Ghana to the ship breaking yards of Bangladesh. The filthy smog and snow is like a lurid tabloid exposé of northern China’s choking pollution during the winter. It paints a vision more in tune with today. Automation and technology have disrupted society, but orphans are still exploited for unskilled labour and vice is rampant.

    Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford do very capable performances. And they are supported by a great ensemble of cast members of great character actors at the top of their game. Dave Bautista, Robin Wright, Barkhad Abdi (Eye in The Sky) and David Dastmalchian (MacGyver, Antman, and The Dark Knight). The one let down is Jared Leto – who now seems to play the same character in every film since his career high point of Dallas Buyer’s Club – I suspect that this is as much a problem with casting as performance. I think he needs to be cast against type more.

    For a three-hour film it still manages to hold your attention and draw you in to its universe without feeling tired. It’s also a film that forces you to think, so if you are looking for visual wallpaper for the mind a la Marvel’s Avengers series of films it won’t be for you.

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