Category Archives: ideas

Eight trends for the future

I have been thinking about were things are going and boiled this down into eight areas. Some of these areas overlap and enable each other, so it’s often hard to tease apart the post-modern tangle into neat categories and drill down into these in more depth in future posts:

  • Social hygiene – social as a channel has become engrained into our lives just like the mobile phone, the web and the telephone directory before it. It is no longer a brave new frontier, but a place were audiences expect brands to have even a minimal presence. In the same way that a business without an office address, company accounts or website that can be Googled is found suspect, so it is with their presence on social properties now. In addition, there are consumer expectations to be met in the way that they expect to be able to transact business
  • Contextual technology – from the rise of search to location-based services and consumer preference for applications – much of this has been driven by consumer preference for informations and services that are contextually relevant
  • Divergence – whilst smartphones and tablets may look like general purpose devices that support convergence what is actually happening is that divergence is taking place around different fault lines, understanding those fault-lines is key
  • Prosumption realised – the idea of consumers being the producers, or at least being part of the process within a modern industrial context was envisioned back in 1970 with Alvin Toffler’s book Future Shock as consumers started to be more involved in the delivery of their own services and products from ATMs to phone calls made without operator intervention. The internet has extended it further
  • Brands as online tribes – brands are as much totems of who we are online as in real-life. Communities allow us to self-reinforce our passions in a way that wasn’t possible before. This is further reinforced by algorithms to provide the audience with only the world view they want to see
  • Web-of-no-web – the web as we know it was built on a set of underlying technologies which enable information transport. Not all information is mean’t to reside in a database to be searched, but instead relies on context like location, weather or the contents of your fridge. Web technologies provided an lingua franca for these contextual settings and mobile technologies have facilitated them further. What hasn’t been done too well so far has been the interface to the human
  • Immersive as well as interactive experiences – at the moment the focus has been on interactive content. But contrary to the belief of technologists good quality older passive mediums didn’t disappear. The reason for this was that they allowed consumers to immerse themselves in them, suspend disbelief in ways that haven’t yet been done by interactive media
  • Digital interruption – by the late 1950s the US civil rights movement found that discourse and letters hadn’t moved the needle meaningfully and it took events like Rosa Parkes sit-down protest and the Stonewall riots to move the process forwards towards a more equal rights for all. Underlying internet technologies have facilitated a step-change in protest; moving from vigorous discourse and petitions to website blackouts; denial of service attacks, defacement and account hacking (a digital equivalent of an effective picket line)

We think about digital, but forget about physical context, artifacts and rituals

I met up with Marc Sparrow and we talked about many things. The one that stuck out in my mind the most was that we were two tablet computer owners, but we both insisted on reading the Sunday newspaper in a dead tree format.

Marc went on to tell me that he saw from his friend’s Facebook updates that they were passing this habit on to their children too. The Sunday Times was no longer about news and analysis but a marker for Sunday like the traditional roast dinner or church service and a way of unwinding before the week ahead.
Patek Philippe advert
When one looks at Patek Philippe’s adverts the thing that stands out is the strapline:

You never actually own a Patek Philippe.
You merely look after it for the next generation.

Whilst being a clever bit of marketing, I think that it says a lot about some brands and contexts. Whilst brands like Louis Vuitton and Gucci have blurred the line between fashion and luxury; the great Swiss watch brands like Rolex rely on old-fashioned word-of-mouth. Omega is part of my evoked set (despite my not liking a lot of their watch designs or the way way they have fashionised the brand) because of my parents. I got my first Rolex because I had a bad experience diving with a Seiko watch and my dive buddies explained why they thought Rolex was best.

This didn’t happen in Facebook but in Snowdonia, in the dead of winter in front of a man-made lake that had killed a number of scuba divers. Within half an hour of my having made a forced ascent as my dive watch had popped off my wrist and sailed to the bottom.

As an industry we often forget about physical context, artifacts and rituals. Ironically it is about going back to marketing 101 and the year 1960. E. Jerome McCarthy came up with what was then the four Ps, to which were added another three over time. Since then marketers have thought about looking at these from a consumer point of view and you had other models like the four Cs, but for the sake of simplicity I will list out the 7 Ps:

  • Product
  • Price
  • Place
  • Promotion
  • Physical Evidence
  • People
  • Process

I would argue that physical evidence is more than the salesroom experience and people are the customer base as well as the sales and supply chain. Think about how on the road arrogance affected the perception of certain car marques in the UK:

  • Mondeo Man
  • The Volvo Driver
  • White-Van Man

All of these stereotypes have had a grain of truth to them and affected the way we think about the brands. Look at the way Burberry and Stone Island got affected by their football casual customer base.

As clever marketers we can also create rituals:

  • Mother’s Day
  • Take a break, have a Kit-Kat
  • Royal British Legion poppy campaign
  • Guinness co-opting St Patrick’s Day

 

This isn’t the vivid cyberspace that I signed up for…

I left my original iPad with my parents so we could have regular talks over Skype. I set up my new iPad (I have gone for a mini this time) and pulled up photos from my old iPad back-up. I used the screen capture function as a way of taking notes (usually infographics or adverts that caught my eye) to form a scrapbook on my iPad.

I was reviewing this images and came across a diagram from Max Whitby that looked media in terms of two sets of attributes: vividness and interactivity. I have redrawn the diagram here:
Interactivity versus Vividness

What becomes immediately apparent is that outside of literature, development of vivid experiences has been a bit of a wash-out. In fact, with many of the most vivid experiences that have been created were attempted in the movie industry or amusement parks 50+ years ago.

Secondly, there has been a decline in ambition amongst products that do get to market. During the first spurts of the commercial web ambitions of vividness and interactivity went hand-in-hand. Virtual reality headsets had moved out of the military and laboratory environment to some high-end arcades.

Zeiss made glasses that provided a virtual screen to provide the big-screen TV experience in a smaller space. Mark Pesce’s VRML portented a vivid 3-D web experience that didn’t come to pass. VRML eventually became X3D, but some two decades later, I still don’t have cyberspace as envisaged by William Gibson.

Haptics are moving along at a snails pace and augmented reality moving along a little faster.

Before RSS, there was push technology; the PointCast Network and client software provided a more vivid experience than any RSS reader, some eight years before Twitter. Developments of products like Facebook and twitter have iterated on prior social platforms from internet chat and forums to messaging platforms. But all of these ‘developments’ haven’t moved the needle in terms of providing vivid experiences.

From a marketing perspective both content and interactivity have become more important as brands become social and build ‘content factories’ yet there hasn’t been any efforts to provide vivid brand experiences that would be engaging to the consumer. Pop-up stores and experiential events are fleeting spurts of creating a vivid brand with varying degrees of success. There is a lot more mileage yet in the black spaces of the diagram above.

Jonah Berger on why things catch on


Jonah Berger breaks down the factors into a number of areas that has its own acronym STEPPS:

  • Social Currency – status by association
  • Triggers – repetition and cues provide repeated opportunity to discuss
  • Emotion
  • Public
  • Practical Value
  • Stories

Of course, just because you can list these things doesn’t mean that making things catch on is easy, but that’s a whole other series of blog posts for another time.

The video is on YouTube and may not be available to all readers.

Four trends around me

Four ideas that have been kicking around in my head for a while, but didn’t quite feel like standalone posts. Part-observation, part-manifesto make of the four trends what you will.

Data utopianism
There is a temptation to think that new developments will evolve in a manner that is entirely positive for society. However that generally isn’t the case, whether it was pricing information or online advertising; seemingly liberating technology actually is a power multiplier against the consumer. There is no reason to think that developments like mobile contextual data or the quantified self will be any different.

Yet there constantly exists amongst many of my peers a data utopianism that blinkers them to the ethical and process issues that need to be carefully thought through. That isn’t to say that I am negative on technological progress but mindful of the responsiblity that comes with it; on an individual and collective basis.

Liberation from choice
One of the standout successes in commerce start-ups this year has been careful curation. From Jason Goldberg’s Fab, Birchbox Inc, Frank & Oak to Bureau of Trade the e-commerce provider has become a curator. An arbitor of cool. The business has freed us from excessive consumer choice like a real-world personal shopper with hipster aesthetic. Choice is hard, it is overwhelming, it promotes disatisfaction as every option isn’t ‘the one’: the perfect set of jeans, the ultimate cup of coffee or the perfect gift.

Context-driven divergence
Over the past number of years we heard from technology companies about convergence. The companies that bought into this are suffering.  Japanese electronics firms particularly Sony bought into this vision and tried to implement it and failed miserably. Whilst its eyes was off the ball, it had its premium position in consumer electronics by just good enough products made by the Koreans and Chinese brands like Hi-sense.

Japanese electronics companies are trying to get back into the game by attempting to square the circle between common owned data and contextual devices through looking at new ways to connect consumer electronics in a seamless manner. Yet the biggest consumer problem they face is that television is about tuning out whereas the computer and internet content is about turning on. Both very different contexts.

The PC, which had historically been the ultimate digital Swiss Army knife is seeing declining sales with consumers as lightweight devices like tablets and smartphones replace them in communications and content consumption. I can’t remember the last time that I used Yahoo! Instant Messenger, but I use WeChat and Skype on my mobile pretty much every day.

The soft innovation crisis
Silicon Valley veteran Judy Estrin in her book Closing the Innovation Gap: Reigniting the Spark of Creativity in a Global Economy some four years ago highlighted that the US and by extension one could argue, the western hemisphere is being left behind in hard innovation. Instead of developments moving Moore’s Law forwards we have a social network that built on the likes of The WELL, Friendster  and MySpace. Even the smartphone is based on operating system computer science that can trace itself back to Bell Labs in the 1960s.  None of the user experience developments have moved significantly on from Doug Engelbart’s famous SRI demonstration in 1968 at the Mother Of All Demos.

Products like Siri have highlighted the huge leaps forward that AI still needs to make some four decades after massive defence spending first started going into it.

We have huge problems in energy:

  • Sustainable energy such as wind power and solar don’t work, tidal and wave power haven’t been commercialised
  • Nuclear power development has been limited, promising work on Thorium and fast-breeder reactors have gone nowhere
  • Nuclear fusion is still a pipe-dream
  • Semi-conductors haven’t moved on since significantly
  • Battery technology needs major leap forwards
  • Transportation still needs fossil fuels
  • Algae-based bio-fuels seem to have stuck in development

All of these areas in isolation represent a soft innovation crisis and an opportunity, yet sufficient capital and will seem to be lacking. That Facebook has attracted more more money than the various private space programmes in the US is insane.

More information
Slideshow: Japan consumer electronics showcases smart connectivity – EETimes

Operation Christmas by the Columbian army

It is a bit strange watching a video of psy-ops pitched in the same way as an advertising agency award entry but interesting all the same.

Hat tip to Rachel Catanach who used this in a presentation I saw her give the other day.

Around the clock diagnostics

Whilst The Economist‘s description of this as a tri-corder maybe premature, it is an interesting effort to re-professionalise the quantified self a la Polar, which seemed to suffer from a fair bit of smoke and mirrors with the likes of the Nike Fuel bracelet.

DJ Sneak on vinyl

Great four-minute interview with DJ Sneak which talks about some of the seminal people from the house scene like Julian ‘Jumpin’ Perez, Frankie Knuckles, Frankie ‘Hollywood’ Rodriquez and the Hotmix 5 who used to play on a radio station based in the Chicago suburb of Oak Park. People who I used to hear about as legends in record stores like 3Beat and on well-worn duplicated cassette recordings of mixes.

What is is interesting is the way Sneak talks about tangible aspects of vinyl:

  • The label
  • Sleeve design

As as a key way of accessing his mental catalogue of knowledge about the music. This is something that digital media currently doesn’t provide, we need artifacts to trigger memories through the physical senses. It probably explains one of the reasons why Apple is incorporating locative data into is file journaling system on iOS in a recent patent.

More information

  • Get your fill of early house mixes via the Deep House Page – which has been like the Internet Archive of house music sets since the mid-90s
  • More details on Apple’s incorporation of geotags into file system information

 

The Quantified Self: thoughts and a perspective

Here are some miscellaneous thoughts that have been kicking around at the back of my head around health 2.0 | the quantified self or whatever else one would like to call it. First of all, this isn’t some shiny new revolution, like most technology stories, it has been a long train running that has slowly moved into our consciousness and like technologies before it (VoIP – voice over internet protocol, online social networks, online self-publishing) we, as a society, may not be ready for it during its first mainstream incarnation.

So lets go back:

Pre-digital  – the roots of the quantified self lie in a pre-digital age. One of the first things that people learn on a diet or whilst doing body building is the discipline of keeping a record of what they have eaten or their performance during workouts.

Even the social networks that the likes of Nike+ and Polar devices have owes a debt to real-world meetings like Weight Watchers weigh-ins, informal discussions at gyms and the letters columns of bodybuilding magazines.

I have owned a pedometer which used movement not that unlike a mechanical watch to measure distance walked since I was eight. A family friend had brought it back from Japan and it is a funky sage green colour that seemed to be popular in the 1970s.

In early 1990s, I used to scuba dive on a regular basis, we would plan a dive and record each dive in a log. I used to keep a record of the dive profile, the amount of air I had consumed (an analogue of general fitness) and other factors:

  • Atmospheric pressure
  • Dive site elevation
  • Whether I had undergone nitrogen narcosis during the dive and what the symptoms were

Pre-mainstream internet – around the time I started diving, digital dive computers were starting to become ubiquitous with  a company called Uwatec’s Aladdin series of computers being the device of choice for my friends.

Finnish company Suunto took things to the next level with the release of dive computers with a PC interface (via a serial port) and an accompanying piece of software called Dive Manager soon after. It was probably no coincidence that just over a decade earlier another Finnish company Polar Electro had come up with the first wearable wire free heart rate monitors to aid in training for cross country skiing.

Data-mining – fitness gadgets generally capture forms of kinetic energy:

  • Heart beats
  • Movements triggering an accelerometer or distance recorded by GPS (running, repetitive movements of a work out or movement in one’s sleep – which is an analogue for quality of sleep)

But other lifestyle aspects like diet are effectively captured by mainstream retailers and credit card companies:

  • What you buy to eat
  • How often you buy sports shoes or equipment
  • An idea of distance traveled
  • How much fuel was used
  • Use of public transport
  • What medicines and treatments you buy
  • How much time you spend at home

Which is how Target often knows when customers are pregnant way before their nearest and dearest. The quality of data that gadgets create is nothing compared to this transactional data, if data-mined in the right way.

MEMS and battery technology

Two things that has moved the quantified self into the mainstream are battery technology improvements, in particular high power density rechargeable batteries and MEMS (microelectromechanical systems).

Over the past three decades consumers access to battery technology has radically changed our mobile and digital lives. We have seen batteries that we can recharge, so that the cost of running a battery device declined and freed up product designers who could move beyond standard form factors. The first set of these that entered common usage were NiCd batteries, I used to have one about the size of a pack of chewing gum in my Sony Discman, larger ones were used in Japanese remote controlled cars from the likes of Tamiya and cordless drills.

Cd stands for cadmium, a toxic metal and a new breed of nickel based batteries came in: NiMH or nickel metal hydride – the popularity of NiMH batteries  coincided with the rise of the mobile phone. If you own an electric toothbrush or similar devices, these still have NiMH batteries.

A quest for batteries that didn’t suffer so badly from memory effect and held more power led to consumer electronics using lithium ion batteries in high-end devices through the late 1990s and eventually into mobile phones.

This allowed products to be made smaller:

  • Palm V PDA
  • Motorola RAZR V3 mobile handset
  • Ericsson T28 & T39 mobile handsets

Lithium polymer batteries are a development on from lithium-ion batteries, the key advantage with these were that lithium polymer batteries can fit better into shapes, moulded to fit devices like Sony’s Xperia X1.

This all makes devices like Nike’s Fuel band possible and useable for your average consumer.

Inkjet printers, industrial chemistry and your smartphone – the other part of the technological puzzle MEMS have been a slow creeping evolution since the 1980s.

MEMS developed hand-in-hand with the semiconductor industry as the engineering techniques developed were applied to creating more than silicon circuits and even used in manipulating polymer (plastic) materials.

It was first used in providing highly accurate weighing scales allowing laboratories and factories to move away from complex and temperamental electro-mechanical scales. They were then used as high precision pressure and flow meters.

MEMS are used in the mechanism of inkjet printers to get a fine spray on page, however it was the use of them as acelerometers in smartphones that made them sufficiently affordable to put in fitness gadgets like Fitbit or the Nike Fuelband.

MEMS have a wider use in healthcare such as ‘lab-on-a-chip’ applications.

Current limitations

From a device point of view there is a constant tension between accurate data and a commercially viable product cheap enough to use. Data-wise there the integration challenges and access to data sets that could improve the quality of the information available.

As a society, we don’t understand the power and the consequences of the data that we would be unleashing. From a legal point-of-view, we get the politicians that we pay for, so we shouldn’t be surprised when we get laws that favour commercial special interest groups that spend money on party contributions and lobbying programmes.

Access all areas

A change in focus in healthcare led by organisations like Kaiser Permanente moving from treatment to prevention of diseases, technology and a re-defining of what private means that whether we like it or not the quantified self is going to peer into every aspect of our life.

Every social update:

  • Photograph with a glass or cigarette in your hand or a delicious but unhealthy meal
  • Update that talks about a skipped gym class
  • Check-in at a fast food restaurant
  • Like of a health risk like chocolate bars or scuba diving

Every credit card transaction, every bit of location data. Your life is no longer your own, your choices continually questioned against will my health insurance payments go up or my mortgage protection insurance conditions change? Free will outsourced to computer software and hardware.

The irony of the quantified self is that the data is most likely to be used against many of the very people who have tried to use the data:

  • Regular exercise can have implications for muscular-skeletal wear
  • The lack of exercise leads to other conditions like diabetes

These risks can be more actively weighed and mitigated against by insurance companies careful crafting of and amending conditions.

More information
How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did – Forbes
How Target Gets the Most Out of Its Guest Data by Andrew Pole, Target – Predictive Analytics World East 2010 (video)

Old 2.0: interfaces and use cases

I have donated my iPad to my parents. Before I did this I set the device up with an email and a Skype account. The iPad is thought to be a better computing device for older people. Also the touch interface deals with the disconnect between associating physical actions and what happens on screen (think about mouse movements and cursor on screen).

The app store and the relatively ‘dumb’ nature of a tablet are handy security precautions for my parents.
Untitled

I started to take my Dad through using the iPad, the experience changed my idea of what is intuitive and easy-to-use. My Dad isn’t a complete neophyte when it comes to touch screens as he has used stand alone sat nav devicess and retail kiosks before, but the process wasn’t nearly as smooth as I thought it would be and it caused me to re-analyse the process of how I had gotten everything to work.

The picture above is one of several quick scribbles my Dad did to try and capture using Skype and Mail.app for the iPad.

I hadn’t thought about it before but there were a number of clicks to make anything happen. The visual queues of fading or shading non functioning parts of the screen didn’t get picked by my Dad until I explained it.

In fact, the only bit that he found to be relatively straight forward was the keyboard which was apparently similar to the one on his TomTom device. Probably the most damning content on tablet design he made was he would sooner use Freeview’s EPG (electronic programme guide) than use the tvguide.co.uk iPad application.

Whilst I was at home, my parents took advantage of my computer literacy and decided to check out Irelandxo.com: which is a mix of Friends Reunited and a tourism site. Rural parishes manage their own communities and provide help to ex-pats looking to get back in touch with their roots. The local area where my Mum is from are organising a grant reunion for next summer.

They were leafing through the old photos of the parish where my Mum grew up on the site and there was old photo of a woman standing in front of a dresser (or glass case as my Dad sometimes calls it). Behind her were the usual collections of plates, tea pots and an alarm clock. My Mum was immediately able to put a rough date on the picture because of when people put the alarm clock in the glass case.

The use case for the alarm clock was as the central point of time keeping in the house. It was kept behind the glass as it was a reasonably expensive item and because farmers were relatively illiquid in terms of money. They could afford the clock and were generally better off than those in employment, but their resources were tied up in non-cash assets.  It would be periodically reset based on the time as broadcast on the radio.

I was curious as to why it was an alarm clock, given that my Mum initially said the alarm was never set, and if you wanted to see the time, you got up and looked at the clock. Essentially there were two time scenarios:

  1. Pretty much most days were everything was more governed by daylight and the weather. Linear time at the micro level of minutes didn’t matter that much. My uncle who lives on the family farm, still uses the sun and the shadows to give him an idea of time, only wearing his wristwatch when going out to town. Despite this general inaccuracy, children still seemed to get to school on time and the family would still get to the Sunday service
  2. Fair days. In market towns on certain days fairs would be held. If the farmer wanted to convert lifestock, eggs or other produce into money, they would have to get up early to ensure that they had a good pitch or had their animals ready for auction. Then an alarm clock would be used

All of this paints a very different relationship with time to what I have; where my work day is divided into 15 minute blocks which I have kept track of for the past 12 years using a PDA (personal digital assistant) or a smartphone; prior to that I used a Filofax.  Now I feel a bit anxious without a wristwatch or mobile phone to tell the time. However due to the nature of my work, the seasons matter much less beyond bank and public holidays.

#THEWORDBITCH: Kanye West and the semantic world

Kanye West kicked off a discussion on Twitter on Sunday with a hashtag: #THEWORDBITCH which hits on the use of language. It was probably designed as a way to push Lupe Fiasco’s great ‘Bitch Bad‘ track.

Lupe Fiasco – Bitch Bad from Gil Green on Vimeo.

On the surface level, the debate is the use of profanity in music. On first glance, this appears to be a hip-hop thing, but it isn’t.

If I look at Irish culture from The Pogues to Father Frank in Father Ted, profanity abounds. My Dad would describe a particularly hard job, whether fixing a Citroen clutch or dealing with rusted pipes as a ‘bitch of a job’. So its bigger than one culture or generation.

However the debate had an even deeper level; many of the respondents talked about the emotion behind the words:

There are then two thoughts that immediately lead from this for me:

  • Most people have at least some issues with understanding other people’s emotional nuances at least some of the time. That’s the reason there is 206,969 results in Amazon.com’s books selection on relationships
  • We are moving to communications platforms: SMS, email, Twitter, Facebook, Weibo, Kakao Talk etc. All of which have a distinct lack of contextual information compared to real-life interactions

What’s the most interesting about all this?

Our language – which is usually the part of culture that changes and morphs to adapt to trends doesn’t seem to have addressed this phenomena and instead has gone in the opposite direction.

I don’t know why that is, but it feels like we’re walking into a linguistic cul-de-sac and given how full swear boxes become, maybe part of the answer is technology that does a better job of emoting an electronic communication?

Tricia Wang’s LIFT presentation asks big questions about network theory

Tricia Wang’s presentation asks questions about trust, authority and the strengths of connections online.

This is particularly interesting when one thinks about social media marketing and brands as institutions. Much of the ‘science’ in social media marketing fails because of the transcient contextual nature of trust that Wang outlines.

Presentation is on YouTube so may not be available to all readers.

Interview with cut-up artist Girl Talk

Girl Talk’s work sits at the intersection of art and intellectual property law, like The Avalanches his work is made up of lots of other people’s work. When does copyright infringement become a new work in its own right? Why is Andy Warhol art and sampling theft?

Girl Talk Interview — Some Conference 2012 from somehome.org on Vimeo.

The video is on Vimeo, so may not be available to all readers.

Geoffrey Moore on the required structures of innovation in businesses

Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing The Chasm – a bible for business-to-business technology marketers and Escape Velocity talked about innovation within businesses.

Outtakes

  • Moore favoured a ‘bet the farm’ rather than a portfolio approach to innovation
  • The rules of innovation were going to change for American companies; theirs is no longer the dominant market, so they have less options for maneuver
  • Moore was very down on shareholder value as a measure as it killed innovation

The video is hosted on Slideshare so may not be visible to all readers.