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  • Hong Kongers Book Fair + more things

    Hong Kongers Book Fair

    Hong Kongers Book Fair, an independently organised book fair set up by Hillway Culture was cancelled the day before its official launch. The landlords claimed that they had violated a sub letting clause in the contract, the reality has more to do with the current environment around publishing in Hong Kong.

    Hongkongers Book Fair 2022

    Hillway Culture who organised the Hong Kongers Book Fair are looking to keep local Hong Kong culture alive. And what were the books that would have made landlords and the government concern? The diaries of local political prisoners, locally drawn graphic novels, a phonebook of Ukraine and translations of Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm. You can support the book fair organisers and exhibitors through this online shop.

    I can recommend their ‘Hunted and Endangered’ Hongkongers Book Fair shopping bag and Hongkonger passport cover that misquoted A.A. Milne (its actually from Disney’s Pooh’s Grand Adventure The Search for Christopher Robin and was most likely written by children’s screen writer Carter Crocker).

    If ever there’s a tomorrow

    when we’re not together,

    there’s something

    you must remember.

    You’re braver than you believe,

    stronger than you seem,

    and smarter than you think.

    But the most important thing is

    even if we’re apart,

    I’ll always be with you.

    While the literary detection might be wrong the sentiment nails the terrible present facing the Hong Kong people.

    What Putin’s Russia does with artillery, Xi’s China does with a cowed judiciary, triads, law enforcement and toadying transnational business elites.

    Mid Night Racing Club

    Before Fast & The Furious Tokyo Drift raised the international profile of Japanese illegal racing there was Mid Night. This video tells the story of the Porsche 911 Turbo that was at the centre of the club. What I also found interesting was the emphasis on big American muscle cars at the top of the scene rather than say Japanese tuned Mazda RX7s, Nissan Fairlady Zs, Italian sports cars or the big engined German saloon cars like the Mercedes-Benz 300 SEL 6.3 and the Mercedes-Benz 450SEL 6.9. Given how on it the Japanese police usually still are on enforcement I was surprised this could go on, let alone have the impact that it had.

    The end of the salary man

    The Asia Society and Adecco try to put lipstick on the pig of how middle class ‘iron rice bowl’ jobs are disappearing even amongst the most successful corporate organisations in Japan, Korea and Singapore. This is the end of a social contract between society, exploitive corporations and governments who collaborated in creating directed economies. This has been tearing away at the fabric of society, a large number of middle aged men are now homeless. They spent their best years not present in their marriages and when made redundant were kicked out of their homes on to the streets.

    Helihome

    In the family farm house were my Mum grew up there hung a jigsaw picture that was of a painting of the post-war American Antarctic Expedition. It captured my imagination with its Trucker Sno Cat vehicles, pallets being moved off bright orange freighters onto sled and a bright orange Sikorsky helicopter.

    I spent a good deal of my early childhood looking at that picture. So if you had asked 6-year old me to come up with my dream camper van, I would have likely come up with something like the Helihome. The Helihome was designed in the early 1970s by a Florida aviation company using ex-Vietnam war surplus US marine helicopters.

    Orlando Helicopter Airways my 6-year old self salutes you.

    BMW 7-series production footage

    I love manufacturing footage. This b-roll of the BMW 7-series production line is particularly interesting. I thought back to the old Japanese animated cartoons of the automated processes that put a mecha into action as the pilot was put into the head. The degree of automation in this line looks like the science fiction of a few decades ago. Which makes me wonder, how has automation been so advanced in some ways and so basic in others. Why are smartphones still reliant on an army of women to hand assemble the devices? Why is UK industry like food services still so reliant on agency workers earning minimum hourly wages?

  • Electric cars + more things

    Electric cars

    When you think about electric cars you usually think of Tesla. But the reality is that electric cars have been about for almost 200 years. I was reminded of Bob Cringely’s analogy about technology success being about ‘surfing waves‘. The first electric car turned up sometimes in the 1830s. By the beginning of the 20th century there was 30,000 electric cars. But petrol engined cars were cheaper to make and quicker to refill than charging electric cars.

    That didn’t stop Irish inventors converting a Volvo 66 saloon to run as an electric car, 23 years before Tesla even existed.

    Energy

    The Rise and Precarious Reign of China’s Battery King | WIRED – interesting profile of CATL. Shows opportunity for hydrogen and the ceiling of Li ion batteries.

    Finance

    Abducted Canadian billionaire Xiao Jianhua faces trial in Shanghai court | Financial Times – the question not being asked is how many Chinese government officials will the legal action ensnare? They’ve sat on him for five years as they unwound the Tomorrow Group and are only now prosecuting him in the run up to the 20th National Party Congress in November. It is at this event that Xi Jingping is likely to become president for life. The reality is that Mr Xiao’s goose was cooked as soon as he was snatched from the Four Seasons. This trial could affect demand for high-end Hong Kong property adversely

    Beijing announces interest rate swaps with Hong Kong after Xi Jinping visit | Financial Times – this looks like a bear trap for western investment banks

    FMCG

    Irish whiskey roaring back after decades of decline | Whisky | The Guardian 

    Ideas

    3 Things I Got Wrong About Patriarchy 

    The west looks like a political risk to Asian allies | Financial Times 

    Marketing

    Generation X continues to hit the spot, but why is the industry still missing out? | Campaign magazine – don’t even get me started on generations; but the point about the age, demographics and life stage being ignored is a valid one.

    Media

    Is ad fraud the biggest illegal activity on the planet? – The Media Leader 

    Ofcom reviews changing TV ad breaks – The Media Leader 

    CAA Completes $750 Million Deal for Rival Talent Agency ICM Partners – WSJ 

    Online

    It’s Time to Bring Back the AIM Away Message | WIRED – logging off is now the active decision

    Retailing

    TikTok abandons ecommerce expansion in Europe and US | Financial Times 

    Security

    Vast Cache of Chinese Police Files Offered for Sale in Alleged Hack – WSJ and Hacker claims to have stolen 1 bln records of Chinese citizens from police | Reuters – apparently a poorly set up ‘Elasticsearch’ instance on a cloud service enabled the theft. It is interesting that the data wasn’t encrypted.

    Singapore

    How Singapore Got Its Manufacturing Mojo Back – WSJ – focus on supporting bringing back automated production lines

    Software

    Google AI Blog: Auto-generated Summaries in Google Docs 

    Web of no web

    The invisible science of eyewear beats augmented reality | Financial Times 

  • Soviet steel + more things

    Soviet steel urban legend

    I had heard a variant on the ‘Soviet steel’ story that was responsible for Italian cars being rust buckets when I was growing up. The version I heard was that high proportions of recycled scrap from rusted war wreckage and dismantled ships had been put in Italian steel to make it cheaper. (It was easy to believe this version. Libya had a strong historic connection to Italy and prior to oil being discovered Libya’s top export was scrap metal from abandoned military equipment of the second world war’s North African campaign.) Secondly, Russian cars that made it to the west were unreliable and suffered from rust, which supported beliefs about Soviet steel. The reality would have been that the quality related issues in Alfa Romeo’s factories likely would also occur with unmotivated Soviet workers during the economic stagnation from the late 1960s onwards.

    Soviet goods had a rough and ready feel to them, it would be reasonable to assume that Soviet steel wasn’t great. The alternative explanation in this video seems to be reasonable. This viewpoint has changed in the belief of engineers like my Dad that Chinese steel of a particular grade has a quality discount like the Soviet steel of old.

    China

    The High Costs of Disengagement for China by George Magnus – Project Syndicate 

    The next chapter – by Lillian Li – Chinese Characteristics – interesting move to investment by Lillian who will now be working at Baillie Gifford

    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern warns Nato of China’s rising assertiveness | South China Morning Post – New Zealand has in recent years tried not to antagonise China, its largest trading partner 
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern urged for the use of diplomacy and economic links to build ties in the Indo-Pacific region

    Internet hospitals: A great idea that’s not working – SupChina – they’re basically just online pharmacy

    Consumer behaviour

    Older Adults Sacrificing Basic Needs Due to Healthcare Costs | GALLUP 

    Culture

    Celebrating the business of the Grateful Dead this July 4th: Morning Brief 

    Economics

    Disinflation begins – by Noah Smith – Noahpinion 

    Finance

    How Well Are European Sanctions Against Russia Working? – DER SPIEGEL 

    Klarna valuation crashes to $6.5bn from $46bn | Financial Times – unsurprising when I see reports that about 30% of buy now, pay later loans will be struggling to pay them back. It reminds me of storecard debt during the 1991 recession. I was working during college holidays for MBNA a few years later and people were using the balance transfer function to get £20,000 to £30,000 of store card debt on to a card to play off at a lower interest rate. MBNA was then securitising their debt via bonds. There’s probably people who bought a suit at Burtons in the late 1980s that only cleared that debt by the time the millennium came around

    FMCG

    Kraft Heinz pulls products from Tesco in UK pricing row 

    Gadgets

    The invisible science of eyewear beats augmented reality | Financial Times 

    Germany

    The complex route to VW’s planned Porsche IPO | Financial Times – Porsche was bought because it was capital constrained, how will it do when farmed out on its own again?

    Hong Kong

    People are leaving Hong Kong and here’s where they’re going“Everyone’s going to Singapore,” said Pei, especially those working in finance, law and recruitment, she said. Kay Kutt, CEO of the Hong-Kong based relocation company Silk Relo, agreed, saying people are attracted to the ease of business, family friendliness, tax incentives and open borders of Singapore. In its 40-year existence, the past three years have been the busiest years on record for Silk Relo’s sister moving company, Asian Tigers, she said. “We cannot keep up with the capacity,” she said. “We don’t have enough people to serve what’s going on in the marketplace.”   Families are transferring to Singapore, she said, but small- and medium-sized businesses are also on the move. Whereas one company executive might have left in the past, now “they’re all going,” she said. Small companies are “taking the entire team and putting them into Singapore.” Large companies are also relocating to Singapore, said Cynthia Ang, an executive director at the recruitment firm Kerry Consulting. She cited L’Oreal, Moet Hennessy and VF Corporation — the latter which owns brands such as Timberland and North Face — as examples, while noting there are more who haven’t made their decisions public yet. – the volume going to Singapore is immense based on the amount of people that I am seeing coming to the UK

    Hong Kong resistance will live on – SupChina – a few things here. I thought the parallels between Tibet’s annexation by China and Hong Kong was interesting. I don’t think that resistance will continue on. For the majority of people, its just easier to leave. People are going to Thailand, the UK, Australia, Canada and Singapore. They are connected through family networks to the world.

    Hong Kong 25: Hong Kong’s blurring border with China a sign of things to come – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP 

    Innovation

    Do Academic Citations Measure the Impact of New Ideas? | Matt Clancy this could change the game completely When should U.S. research be stamped ‘top secret’? NSF asks for a new look at the issue | Science | AAAS 

    Japan

    EV supply chain: Japan, China vie for power in lithium standards – Nikkei Asia read this related article with a pinch of salt CATL’s new battery is a leap forward but also a precursor of something radical to come – SupChina 

    Sega’s old arcades are making money again as new owners announce 3.175-billion yen profit | SoraNews24

    Korea

    South Korean workers resort to shop-bought snacks as ‘lunch-flation’ starts to bite | South China Morning Post 

    Media

    Trust in media: Times, Telegraph and BBC see record drops in trust 

    Amazon’s Digital Returns Problem | Revue 

    China bans over 30 live-streaming behaviours, demands qualifications to discuss law, finance, medicine | South China Morning Post – on the plus side this helps avoid Gwyneth Paltrow Goop style deceptive marketing, but it won’t be foolproof

    Security

    Glitch at KDDI disrupting smartphone calls, internet use | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis – best guess? Bad software update

    Will Southeast Asia support Russia’s war with semiconductor exports? — Radio Free AsiaSoutheast Asian states, apart from Singapore, have eschewed sanctions and continue to trade with Russia. But as the war drags on, that will have consequences in terms of secondary sanctions and other penalties imposed by the west. Russian supply chains run through Southeast Asia, and the United States and other western governments are have made the targeting of Russian sanctions evasion operations a top priority. One area where Southeast Asian actors may be tempted into sanctions evasion – or where, conversely, they could help pressure Russia economically – is in the export of semiconductors. – there will be a point when they will be on the receiving end of either Chinese aggression or western sanctions. In either case, the west will just standby

    Technology

    Samsung Starts Mass Production of 3-Nanometer Chips – The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition)

    Web of no web

    Metaverse dating app popular with young people in China vies for HK listing | Financial Times 

    Honda invites gamers to Hondaverse in Fortnite on Twitch | Marketing Dive – eerily similar to the Nissan brand space my former colleague Jim Olsen worked on in SecondLife

    New York State Buys Robots for Lonely Elders | Futurism – mirrors the seniors robots that Japan has been experimenting with for years

  • Delivery services

    Why talk about delivery services? On the days that I go into office I am reminded of the late 1990s and 2000 with online services marketing, in particular delivery services. The Super Bowl advertising had a plethora of online businesses, Coinbase’s QRcode ad will likely be the Pets.com sock puppet of 2022. (The reason why online businesses are on TV is that it represents the lowest cost per reach for effective brand awareness of any medium, including digital channels).

    https://youtu.be/0XXPKvbNr8o

    Growth hacking

    We also saw a resurgence in growth hacking, trying to get consumers to go from ‘I’ve never heard of you’ to app download as fast as possible. Which usually means thrusting a leaflet with a QRcode into my hand as I leave the tube station on my way home most week day evenings. A lot of these apps are delivery services.

    Here’s a list of the on-demand delivery services that have been promoted to me so far:

    • Getir – I had a leaflet from Getir one time at the the tube station. It’s purple and yellow brand colours caught my attention because it immediately reminded me of vintage Yahoo! I threw the leaflet in the recycling and paid no more attention until ‘Taxi-gate‘. The company alleged that their agency partner didn’t buy enough taxi advertising for their brand and instead bought advertising for other delivery services. I didn’t realise until I started researching this post that Getir was founded in 2015 by a team in Turkey.
    • Uber Eats – Uber Eats had already established itself as a restaurant delivery service to rival Deliveroo and Just Eats. It has also pivoted into grocery deliveries over the past couple of years in my neighbourhood. I would get emails and mailouts from my credit card company with a discount code for use the first time I grocery shopped on Uber Eats.
    • Deliveroo – Like Uber Eats Deliveroo had already established itself as a restaurant delivery service and expanded into grocery delivery services as well. I had them actively promoted to me via email, as I had used Deliveroo in the past
    • Ocado – This spring Ocado started promoting Ocado Zoom to me promising deliveries of a limited amount of products within two hours of order
    • Gorillas – Gorillas is a Getir analogue that was founded in Germany and launched in 2020. I got a number of leaflets from them, they were the most frequent leaflet that I received on my way out of the tube station. The logo was distinctive, but that’s all I could remember about it.

    Kozmo.com

    Kozmo.com could be considered to be the American dot com ancestor of online delivery services. Kozmo.com was the brainchild of two investment bankers in the US. It was launched in 1998 serving areas of New York. In July 2000, at the height of its business, the company operated in selected areas of Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., San Diego and Los Angeles. It was popular with young professionals and college students, in the areas that it served. But despite the delivery service’s careful choice of markets served, it didn’t survive the dot.com bust going under in April 2001. While the business had filed for an IPO, it never actually went public.

    Economic circumstances

    The UK is likely to be heading into a recession that will be harder and longer than our near peers. There is an inflation and commodity pricing storm that has caused a cost of living crisis currently dominating the political agenda and rising interest rates.

    We know from businesses like Uber and Kozmo.com that delivery services are a low margin business at the best of times. We could be staring into another online business bust. This time it will be driven by a wider economic crisis rather than the precipitating incident, but the effect will be the same. Retail investors including pension fund savers will suffer.

    It feels that we forget history and are doomed to repeat it. Yes smartphones made ordering more convenient than dial-up, but it still didn’t change the essential business model for these delivery services. These businesses relied on cheap money to burn through in the hope of eventually getting profitable. In this respect it reminds me of the dot.com startups that I used to meet at the start of my agency life who talked about not worrying too much about profitability, but about trying to move at ‘internet speed‘. We’ve already seen this kind of thinking at WeWork and other Softbank businesses.

    History is destiny; if we fail to learn the appropriate lessons from it.

  • Asian archive footage + more stuff

    Asian archive footage

    I have noticed a lot of b-roll from Japan on YouTube. This seems to have expanded to a wider category of Asian archive footage.

    Here’s some footage of the 1970s and 1980s in Japan. This is interesting because it doesn’t seem to be broadcast quality footage and at least some of it was shot by an amateur cameraman.

    My latest Asian archive footage discovery was footage from Taiwan. Taiwan was a wider economic powerhouse before the opening up of China. This footage was shot during the 1980s and 1990s. The first thing that struck me the influence on Taiwanese modern culture of Japan (like baseball). But the traditional Chinese culture is still better preserved than anywhere on the mainland and probably even more so than Hong Kong and Singapore.

    Russian economics

    Perun was a gaming channel that pivoted into making thoughtful analysis videos on different aspects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This video covers the economic impact. TL;DR – war creates a huge amount of economic value destruction. It is well worth a watch as Perun does some great analysis.

    Shortcut to scratching

    I wish I had this video 30 years ago. DJ Shortcut of The Invisibl Skratch Piklz and World Famous Beat Junkies breaks down scratching techniques.

    Chinese invasion of Taiwan

    Chris Cappy provides an interesting perspective on the PLA and a likely Taiwan invasion. But that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t do a blockade or Pearl Harbour style strikes to isolate Taiwan. Secondly, like Saddam Hussein before them the non-military Chinese leadership may not fully realise their own limitations. China has been known to throw its military into conflicts that they weren’t ready for, or capable of. The example that immediately comes to mind is the shambolic border conflict with Vietnam.