Along with immigration, and economic measures (like inflation, interest rates and possible growth); crime is likely to decide the next general election in the UK. The issue and the supporting data around it are complex and sometimes contradictory in nature.
It sits right on the fault line between social democrat and populist narratives to voters.
Crime is a hardy perennial of policy subjects
Labour’s political golden age of the late 20th century harked back to the transformation of the party that claimed to be ‘Touch on crime, tough on the causes of crime‘. While the phrase was popularised by Tony Blair at the 1993 Labour Party conference – it owes its roots to the opposition team assembled under former Labour leader John Smith.
The phrase captured Labour’s attempt to steal the Conservative position on law and order, combining it with a preventative approach to the social ills that drive the issue including homelessness and poverty.
Two decades later and David Cameron’s ‘Broken Britain’ depicted a country awash in social decay and by implication criminal behaviour.
So it’s natural, that during a time of social disruption and stubbornly stagnant economic growth that crime will be used as a political differentiator.
It fits into a wider perception of the UK being a country in decline. This perception was found by Ipsos to be one of the key drivers of political populism.
Ipsos also found that the perception of crime and violence being the number one issue rose from 18% of respondents to 23% from 2023 to 2024.
Crime is falling?
The statistical picture on crime is complicated. To summarise:
- Overall reported crime numbers are down. However, trying to get police to log a reported crime is much harder in previous times.
- The ‘decline’ in reported crimes across different types of offences is very uneven. Data from the UN Office of Crime and Drugs found that the UK had seen an unprecedented increase in the rate of serious assaults from 2012 – 2022.
As the FT put it:
“street crime” has risen rapidly. Over the past decade, reported shoplifting has risen by over 50 per cent, robberies (including phone and car theft) by over 60 per cent and knife crime by almost 90 per cent. Public order offences have almost trebled
- The police have become less effective crime fighters. Although police have less reported crimes to solve, less than six percent of crimes in committed in the UK resulted in a charge or summons in 2023. That compares to just under 16 percent in 2015. The UK government’s focus on increasing mass surveillance powers won’t solve the crisis in crime fighting. An example of the problems that the police face and failed to solve presented itself at the time of writing. There was a spate of phone thefts at the Creamfields festival. All the phones ended up at the same address in Barking. Cheshire police told those affected that:
- “We have undertaken an assessment of your crime and unfortunately based on the information currently available, it is unlikely we’ll be able to solve your crime”.
- Cheshire Police said that they couldn’t recover their devices despite knowing where they are.
- Cheshire Police do not believe the thefts are connected to organised crime. Yet dozens of phones showed up at the same address after they were stolen…
- Trust in the public for the police to solve crime is declining. Policing by consent was no longer happening in many areas of the UK. Issues like ‘Asian grooming gangs’ in The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse indicated poliicing issues in recommendations to pay attention to vulnerable working-class children and their families when they come forward. Two-tier policing is more likely to run along class lines than political lines.
- While crime still lags behind the economy and health as concerns for voters. The percentage of respondents who felt that stopping or preventing crime should be the number one priority for politicians went from 14% in 2023 to 23% in 2024.
- While Britain needs foreign direct investment, crime is adversely affecting efforts to attract investors. Foreign business people are complaining to senior politicians they meet about British street crime they’ve experienced on visits. The UK now has a global reputation for violent robberies. 40 percent of all phone thefts in Europe happen in the UK. London alone accounts for 16 percent of all phone thefts across Europe.
Crime across generations
According to both Ipsos and the National Centre for Social Research, the current cohort of young adults stick out with regards their beliefs and attitudes towards crime:
- An increased belief that crime is caused by a lack of education
- An increased openness to committing crime, particularly fraud.
- Opposition to current frameworks for punishment.
All of which is at odds with the fact that much crime is organised, trans-national and violent in nature.
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More information
How Labour and Reform frame crime in electoral fights | FT
Try telling Britain it ain’t broken – POLITICO
Do broken windows mean a broken Britain? FT
Organised Vehicle Theft in the UK | RUSI
Jeff Asher on manipulating crime data – Marginal REVOLUTION
Few Britons think criminals likely to face justice for minor crimes | YouGov
How our stolen mobile phones end up in an Algerian market | The Times and The Sunday Times
Tax haven: how jacket thefts swept the UK – The Face
$56M in London property tied to alleged China crime ring — Radio Free Asia
Wearing your Rolex or Patek Philippe in Europe? Why you should be worried about London and Paris’ spikes in luxury watch theft | South China Morning Post
Brazen watch robberies fuel shock rise in violent thefts in London ITV News
London Watch | renaissance chambara
India’s business elite sounds alarm over Rolex thefts in London’s Mayfair | FT
