Category: business | 商業 | 상업 | ビジネス

My interest in business or commercial activity first started when a work friend of my Mum visited our family. She brought a book on commerce which is what business studies would have been called decades earlier. I read the book and that piqued my interest.

At the end of your third year in secondary school you are allowed to pick optional classes that you will take exams in. this is supposed to be something that you’re free to chose.

I was interested in business studies (partly because my friend Joe was doing it). But the school decided that they wanted me to do physics and chemistry instead and they did the same for my advanced level exams because I had done well in the normal level ones. School had a lot to answer for, but fortunately I managed to get back on track with college.

Eventually I finally managed to do pass a foundational course at night school whilst working in industry. I used that to then help me go and study for a degree in marketing.

I work in advertising now. And had previously worked in petrochemicals, plastics and optical fibre manfacture. All of which revolve around business. That’s why you find a business section here on my blog.

Business tends to cover a wide range of sectors that catch my eye over time. Business usually covers sectors that I don’t write about that much, but that have an outside impact on wider economics. So real estate would have been on my radar during the 2008 recession.

  • Shareware: Throwback gadget

    Shareware -back before the internet became ubiquitous, software was distributed by bulletin boards. It was expensive to dial into a board, so magazines uses to have storage media pre-loaded with applications on the front of them.

    For much of the late 1990s and early 2000s my parents used to use MacFormat magazine CDs and floppy disks as coffee coasters. One disk may come with bloatware such as the installation software for AOL, Demon or Claranet. The other disk would be full of free or paid for software.

    The paid for software was often written by a single developer. It was a labour of love / cottage industry hybrid. Often the developers wrote the software to deal with a real need that they had, it was then passed on as they thought others would benefit as well.

    Open source software the way we understand it now was only in its infancy in terms of public awareness. Packaged software was big money. As recent as 2000, Microsoft Office for the Mac would have cost you £235. Quark Xpress – the Adobe Indesign of its day would have cost in the region of £700+ VAT.

    Into the gap sprung two types of software: freeware and shareware.

    Freeware was usually provided as is, there was little expectation of application support. It would become orphaned when the developer moved on to other things

    ChocoFlop Shareware Style

    Shareware usually had different mechanisms to allow you to try it, if you could see the benefit then you paid a fee. This unlocked new features, or got rid of nag screens (like the one from image editing app Chocoflop).

    In return you also got support if there was any problems with the app. Shareware hasn’t died out, but has become less visible in the world of app stores. One that I have been using on and off for over 20 years is GraphicConvertor by Lemke Software. It handles any kind of arcane graphic file you can throw at it and converts it into something useable.

    Kagi Software were one of the first people to provide programmers with a way of handling payments and software activation. Kagi provided an onscreen form to fill out, print, and mail along with their payment. it was pre-internet e-commerce.

    I can’t remember exactly what utility programme I first bought for my college PowerBook, but I do remember that I sent the printed form and cheque to a developer in Glasgow. I got a letter back with an activation code and a postcard (I’ve now lost) from the Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum.

    Later on, Kagi were one of the first online payment processors.

    From the late 1990s FTP sites and the likes of download.com began to replace the magazine disk mount covers. Last year Kagi died, making life a little more difficult for the worldwide cottage industry of small software developers. it was inconvenient, but now with PayPal developers have an easy way to process payments and there are various key management options.

  • Micro influencers

    Micro influencers – much of the social marketing today for consumer brand is done through what is called influencer marketing. For a number of these influencers who have a large social following, working with brand has become very lucrative. But one of the hottest tickets at the moment within communications agencies are ‘micro-influencers’; Edelman Digital lists it as a key area in Digital Trends Report . There is widely cited research by Marketly that claims there is an engagement ceiling (at least on Instagram). Once a follower count gets beyond that, engagement rates decline. This micro-influencer sweet spot is apparently 1,000 – 100,000 followers.

    What are micro influencers?

    Brown & Fiorella (2013) described micro influencers

    Adequately identifying prospective customers, and further segmenting them based on situations and situational factors enables us to identify the people and businesses – or technologies an channels that are closest to them in each scenario. We call these micro-influencers and see them as the business’s opportunity to exert true influence over the customer’s decision-making process as opposed to macro-influencers who simply broadcast to a wider, more general audience.

    Brown & Fiorella wanted to focus on formal prospect detail capture and conversion. It sounds like an adjunct to integrating marketing automation from the likes of Hubspot and Marketo into a public relations campaign.

    This approach is more likely to work in certain circumstances:

    • Low barrier to conversion (e-tailing)
    • Business-to-business marketing – for instance Quocirca did some interesting research back in 2006 that showed endorsements by a finance directors peers at other companies was likely to have a positive effect on a prospective supplier

    Brown & Fiorella’s thinking tends to fall down, when you deploy their approach to:

    • Consumer marketing
    • Mature product sectors
    • Mature brands

    Brand preference and purchase is much more dependent on reach and repetition to build familiarity and being ‘top-of-mind’ as a product.

    Most money in influence marketing is spent in the consumer space as B2B marketing tends to struggle with:

    • Reach
    • Volume of conversation interaction

    (At least outside of the US).

    Brown and Fiorella are 180 degrees away from the approach of consumer marketing maven Byron Sharp and his ‘smart’ mass marketing approach. This means that PR and social agencies are often out-of-step with the thinking of marketing clients, their media planners and other agency partners.

    Engagement matters less than reach or repetition of brand message for mature sectors or brands. For many consumer brands the drop off in engagement amongst macro-influencers is a non-issue, a red herring.

    The only part of the engagement measure that I would be concerned about in that case would be content propagation amongst my defined target audience – how widely had it been repeatedly shared as this would affect total reach.

    If the client and planner are using Sharp’s thinking then this audience would be wide, but a certain amount of the propagation would be wasted – for instance outside targeted geographies.

    From the perspective of communications agencies I can understand the obsession with engagement being part of their DNA. Micro influencers are an extension of this, as macro-influencers value is increasingly out of whack with their marketing benefits. These businesses are in the offline world are engagement agencies; whether its politicians, regulators, fashion stylists, movie set designers, editors, journalists, TV producers or DJs.

    Why are micro influencers a hot topic now?

    The most obvious reason is that more popular ‘macro-influencers’ are well informed about their commercial value which has been driven up to a point where they look expensive in terms of cost, even if you charitably look at it on a ‘per follower’ basis.

    On the supply side of the equation, influencer representation benefit from having more ‘inventory’ that can be sold at various price points to marketers. So in some respects micro influencers fulfil a market supply need.

    Challenges in influencer marketing

    From a marketing perspective there are a number of issues in influencer marketing – these factors are either unknown data points or represent an issue with the brand experience

    • Quality of brand placement
    • Cost per reach
    • Consistency of reach (how confident is the media planner that the influencer will achieve a certain level of reach)
    • Message repetition amongst the audience that I want to reach

    Which makes it harder to factor into an econometric model that would help justify the investment in influencer marketing as a contribution to sales.

    Let’s have a look at data around a campaign for smartphone manufacturer Huawei. This has been touted as successful by the agency involved, Social Chain. We don’t know the cost as its likely to be client confidential.

    • 2 million YouTube views (we don’t know how many of these were driven by advertising)

    • 75,000 likes

    • 13,587,159 impressions driven by 6 influencers

    • 10,689 clicks from 90 posts

    • 10 million impressions for the promotion of a colour variant of the smartphone model and 92,320 engaged

    • 4.6% engagement rate (which we’re assured is 41% higher than the industry average for branded content)

    What this doesn’t tell us:

    • Reach amongst target audience
    • Repetition amongst target audience

    Which could then be used to provide an estimate of its contributory factor to sales if you had an econometrics model. You can’t access how it works next to other tactics and there are limited outtakes for the learning marketing organisation.

    Quality of brand placement

    Many brands have struggled to get their brand in the influencers content in a way that:

    • Represents it in a meaningful way (for example beyond unboxing videos, one smartphone looks rather like another)
    • Doesn’t feel ad-hoc or awkward

    Some luxury brands have managed to get around this by keeping control of the content; a good example of this is De Grisogono – a family-run high jewellery and luxury watch brand. They work with fashion bloggers that meet their high standards and invite them to events. (It’s obviously an oversight on their part that I haven’t had an invite yet.)

    De Grisogono provides them with high-quality photography of its pieces and the event. They get the best of both worlds: influencer marketing but with a high standard of brand presentation which raises the quality of the achieved reach.

    There is a school of thought that micro influencers will be easier to manage in order to assure quality of brand placement. However, micro-influencers are likely to be aspiring macro-influencers and each will have a clear line of demarcation in their own head that they won’t cross. The reality is one of complexity dependent on:

    • Brand power
    • Relationships
    • Credibility of proposed idea
    • Impact on aspirations – could they get more followers by taking a stand and strategically burning a brand?
    Cost per reach

    Influencers tend to talk about themselves in terms of the number of followers that they have. However many followers seldom engage with the influencers content. This happens for a number of reasons:

    • The follow button is often used as a book mark or a like button
    • Algorithmic changes to social platforms and the volume of the social firehouse itself drown out brands (and these influencers are all about the brand of ‘me’). Whatley and Manson’s research at Ogilvy on the decline of organic reach in Facebook pages  is worthwhile having a look at

    Followers as a data point is not the straight analogue of reach that the industry and influencers would have you believe based on how they present their data.

    Reach numbers that are presented are often not that much more useful:

    follower

    (Data via Golin, TapInfluence and Marriott)

    Consistency of reach

    So influencers may give us follower numbers or ‘total reach’ calculations but how do we know what reach their brand placement content is likely to achieve? At the moment, I don’t know how consistent influencers are, I have a ‘personal time’ data project currently in progress on it. More on that hopefully in a later post. There isn’t off-the-peg data that I know of, so I am pulling together a data set.

    Message repetition

    Until we understand the ‘quality of brand placement’ we wouldn’t be able to understand whether a piece of influencer content was a point of content delivery. We’d also need to know do audiences of influencer A also look at media channels or other influencers that we have in our overall media plan. There often isn’t an overall media plan and there often isn’t sufficient quality of audience data for influencers.

    More on influence here.

    More information

    Edelman Digital Trends Report – (PDF) makes some interesting reading
    Instagram Marketing: Does Influencer Size Matter? | Markerly Blog
    Influence Marketing: How to Create, Manage and Measure Brand Influencers in Social Media Marketing by Danny Brown & Sam Fiorella ISBN-13: 978-0789751041 (2013)
    Facebook Zero: Considering Life After the Demise of Organic Reach

  • China cloud market + other news

    China cloud market

    Amazon, Microsoft Face Tough New Limits on China Cloud Market — The Information – why aren’t companies lobbying the US (and other governments) to hammer China on the WTO?. It is interesting that the China cloud market is being treated like a strategic industry. The question is what is the Chinese government’s end game with the data in the China cloud market and how will it be weaponised?

    Shenzhen civic centre

    Business

    Yahoo! remainder to rebrand as “Altaba”, CEO resigns – the truly sad bit is David Filo’s resignation, despite being one of the largest shareholders

    Sterling’s Plunge Spoils FTSE 100 Record Winning Streak – MoneyBeat – WSJ – sterling’s drop shows that the FTSE gains are mostly illusory

    Finance

    Alipay User Overview 2016 – China Internet Watch – the spend sounds high given China’s average wage

    Gadget

    MacFarlane quits Sonos | TechEye – Amazon on the low end and Bose alongside other hi-fi companies now in the market

    Media

    Journalism, media and technology trends and predictions 2017 – Reuters Institute for the study of journalism – interesting issues that will affect media planning and creative (Facebook Live, VR, AR). Social becomes a policy tool as politicians use social for campaigning and dialogue (PDF)

    Apple Sets Its Sights on Hollywood With Plans for Original Content – WSJ – its about competing with Spotify; not Netflix apparently

    Collett Dickenson Pearce | BraveNewMalden – how to ruin an ad

    Venture capital is going to murder Medium – Business Insider – $132 million in funding…

    Online

    China’s answer to Quora now worth a billion bucks | Techinasia – it pisses me off that the way this is phrased. Knowledge search Q&A type sites have been a staple of Asian web for over a decade: Naver being a classic example. Baidu has had a version for years.

    What Comes Next Is the Future (2016) on Vimeo – great documentary on the history of the web and where it going in the future

    Netflix is even more popular than porn in hotel rooms | Quartz – it doesn’t look as douchy on your credit card statement?

    Security

    Russia’s D.N.C. Hack Was Only the Start – NYTimes.com – interesting if a bit self-serving op-ed by Robby Mook who managed Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 campaign for president. His distinction between leaks versus doxing is a relatively weak argument. Where would he stand on whistleblowers?

    Software

    WeChat is morphing so Chinese smartphone owners will never have to download an app again — Quartz

    Technology

    Future Health Index – interesting resource on future of health thinking

    Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline – PCs aren’t dead, but they aren’t the general purpose device; instead their are a serious computing device where more computing power, more focus or better ergonomics are required rather than the casual or glanceable computing of mobile and tablet devices

    Web of no web

    TV anchor says live on-air ‘Alexa, order me a dollhouse’ – guess what happens next • The Register – epic. More related content here.

    Google Maps now displays Uber drivers in real-time | TheNextWeb – is this real data though?

  • Lights out production lines

    Lights out production lines reminded me of my childhood. If you are of a certain age, ‘hand made by robots’ brings to mind the Fiat Strada / Ritmo a thirtysomething year old hatchback design that was built in a factory with a high degree of automation for the time.

    Fiat subsidiary Comau created Robogate, a highly automated system that speeds up body assembly. Robogate was eventually replaced in 2000. The reality is that ‘hand made by robots’ had a liberal amount of creative licence. Also it didn’t enable Fiat to shake off its rust bucket image. Beneath the skin, the car was essentially a Fiat 127. Car factories still aren’t fully automated.

    Foxconn is looking to automate its own production lines and create products that truly are ‘hand-built by robots’. Like Fiat it has its own robots firm which is manufacturing 10,000 robots per year.

    Foxconn has so far focused on production lines for larger product final assembly (like televisions) and workflow on automated machine lines: many consumer products use CNC (computer numeric control) machines. That’s how Apple iPhone and Macs chassis’ are made. These totally automated lines are called ‘lights out production lines’ by Foxconn.

    Foxconn is looking to automate production because China is undergoing a labour shortfall as the population getting older. Foxconn uses a lot of manual workers for final assembly of devices Apple’s iPhone because the components are tightly packed together.

    Forty years ago, Japanese manufacturers conquered high end and low end consumer electronics with pick-and-place machines to automate electronics production, Nokia went on to build its phone business on similar automated lines. Globalisation ironically facilitated hand assembly of exceptionally dense electronics devices.

    It will be a while before Foxconn manages to automate this as robotic motor control isn’t fine enough to achieve this yet. In order for that to happen you need a major leap forward in harmonic gearing. This isn’t a problem that software or machine learning can solve easily. More related pieces of jargon can be found here.

    More information
    Foxconn boosting automated production in China | DigiTimes – (paywall)

  • iQiyi IPO & more news

    iQiyi

    Baidu Plans $1 Billion IPO for Video-Streaming Site iQiyi.com – WSJ – (paywall) value nominally at $5bn – inflated value of the iQiyi media brand especially in the mercurial regulatory environment for online media in China around what might be construed as sensitive content. Secondly, China’s Tencent with QQ Video offers a real threat for iQiyi and a host of live streaming platforms. Finally, it is hard to build scale when you’re optimising for just one market like iQiyi is. So comparisons of iQiyi with Netflix aren’t that helpful. More related content here.

    China

    Britain’s view of trade with China sounds fanciful | FT – TL;DR version – UK will get fucked by China due to Brexit. Asset stripped, no negotiating power in any trade agreement,  expect nominal sovereignty in return for expected compliant behaviour. The Chinese may load up on UK treasuries for use as a financial cosh if necessary. Expect lots of Chinese immigrants

    Economics

    U.S. companies want to play China’s game. They just can’t win it. – The Washington Post – “When I think about Facebook in China, I think, ‘What’s their advantage?’ ” said William Bao Bean, a Shanghai-based partner at SOSV Ventures and the managing director of Chinaccelerator, which invests in start-ups. “Their product is so outpaced by the local companies.”

    Suddenly, Corporate Values Might Come With A High Price – Paul Holmes on corporate and social responsibility in a populist political environment

    Gadgets

    A Turntable Reborn Turns Its Back on Its Hip-Hop Legacy – The New York Times – The biggest competition is second hand 1200s because they are so robust and user serviceable. Technics need to do a lot of work to get hifi afficandos on board so if they want to grow the market and let it scale, you put your money on the hifi buffs and let the product be the marketing for the turntablist fan base. I am just glad to have it back

    Indonesia

    Indonesia and India set to ‘steal the show’ as APAC tipped to lead global ad growth in 2017 – Mumbrella Asia

    Indonesian puppets

    Security

    How Russia Recruited Elite Hackers for Its Cyberwar – The New York Times – the bit that I found most interesting is how Russia now relies on a series of private military contractors, rather like the US

    Software

    WeChat Update: Add Stickers To Your Pics – it will be huge, but that doesn’t mean I can’t shake my head and go tut-tut

    Thailand

    What’s really behind Thailand’s hostility to Chinese tourists? | South China Morning Post – instructive article on what happens when Chinese culture goes abroad

    Technology

    Japanese white-collar workers are already being replaced by artificial intelligence | Quartz

    Web of no web

    Quanta to make next-generation Apple Watch, says paper | DigiTimes – battery efficiency focus but little consumer-facing innovation apparently

    Wireless

    2G or Not 2G | CCS Insight – on GSM network shutdown