Ged Carroll

Category: culture | 文明 | 미디어와 예술 | 人文

Culture was the central point of my reason to start this blog. I thought that there was so much to explore in Asian culture to try and understand the future.

Initially my interest was focused very much on Japan and Hong Kong. It’s ironic that before the Japanese government’s ‘Cool Japan’ initiative there was much more content out there about what was happening in Japan. Great and really missed publications like the Japan Trends blog and Ping magazine.

Hong Kong’s film industry had past its peak in the mid 1990s, but was still doing interesting stuff and the city was a great place to synthesise both eastern and western ideas to make them its own. Hong Kong because its so densely populated has served as a laboratory of sorts for the mobile industry.

Way before there was Uber Eats or Food Panda, Hong Kongers would send their order over WhatsApp before going over to pay for and pick up their food. Even my local McDonalds used to have a WhatsApp number that they gave out to regular customers. All of this worked because Hong Kong was a higher trust society than the UK or China. In many respects in terms of trust, its more like Japan.

Korea quickly became a country of interest as I caught the ‘Korean wave’ or hallyu on its way up. I also have discussed Chinese culture and how it has synthesised other cultures.

More recently, aspect of Chinese culture that I have covered has taken a darker turn due to a number of factors.

  • Omakase and luxury futures

    Omakase and luxury seem made for each other. Think about the core elements of omakase:

    • An expert provides a personalised experience that is about quality, ceremony and theatre.
    • The expert decides what you will have and prepares it for you. You are there from selection to the provision of the item.
    • The ingredients are of fine quality (and often locally sourced).
    Tokyo
    Marc Veraart

    As a trend omakase has expanded geographically with Japanese cuisine. But it has also expanded in terms of categories covered.

    Koreans have taken omakase and pushed it into other areas:

    • Coffee
    • Dessert tasting
    • Barbecue restaurants which are normally a local neighbourhood staple
    • Wine and champagne-tasting

    So how can omakase and luxury come together in the future?

    In order to understand how omakase and luxury in the future it is worthwhile paying a good deal of attention to the pressures that the luxury industry is currently under.

    Luxury is under pressure

    Undoing the mistakes of the past

    Luxury has expanded to be the size of industry it currently is due to ‘massification’ by most of the maisons. The exceptions to this would be the likes of Hermés.

    Massification

    Massification means lowering quality, using globalisation in the supply chain as well as the retail network to manufacture products cheaper. Massification occurred over a three decade period and was covered extensively by former fashion editor Dana Thomas in her book Deluxe.

    Around about 2014, Gucci led the way for luxury brands to do streetwear, leading to a more accessible luxury product. Louis Vuitton did the archetypical collection with its 2017 Supreme collaboration.

    Contrary to what most people believe luxury is aimed at the middle classes rather than the wealthy. But targeting middle class customers rather than the wealthy poses a number of problems:

    • Increased capital outlay due to the scale required.
    • Scale brings challenges in terms of supply chain management and consistency of customer experience. Greater control can be obtained by vertical integration within the supply chain and owning the retail channels. But all of this requires greater expertise and management oversight.
    • Increased economic sensitivity to shocks such as interest rate and cost of living rises.
    • Increased risk of devalued stock during an economic downturn. Gucci earnings were down 20 percent alone in Q1, 2024.

    Bigger might not always be better over a longer view.

    Secondary markets

    Secondary markets have been both a boon and a bane for the luxury sector. At one time pre-owned was seen as an ‘entry-level’ product. I bought my first nice watch secondhand once it had depreciated. It was often said that the best entry-level Porsche was a secondhand one.

    But gone are the days when you may buy a pre-owned Louis Vuitton purse on a second hand market stall in Paris. Now that will be on Vinted, Vestaire or some other platform.

    Secondary market inflated pricing affected luxury businesses in a number of ways

    • You would be interviewed to go on the waiting list for a Porsche or a Rolex.
    • Authorised dealers became order takers and dealer customer service slipped.
    • Your purchasing history would acquire you the rights to buy a Hermés bag over time.

    Luxury groups extended their businesses into the pre-owned market. LVMH owned part of secondhand watch retailer Hodinkee. Richemont owned Watchfinder and Yoox-Net-a-Porter who sold a mix of new lines and vintage preowned items. Rolex rolled out its ‘CPO’ programme selling inspected pre-owned Rolex watches through its authorised dealer network.

    Things looked really good for the luxury industry, they managed to managed to scale, to a point that LVMH is one of the largest companies in the world:

    • Massification through global manufacturing supply chains.
    • Keeping margins high, while letting quality go low.
    • Address a rising middle class in China, Korea, Japan, the Gulf countries and Russia to counteract the hollowing out of the middle class in the US and western Europe.
    • Maximising margins through controlling costs via vertical integration up and down the supply chain, from raw materials to retail.

    Market change

    A few things underpinned the craziness of COVID:

    • Money was put in consumer pockets, for which they had few outlets.
    • Supply chains were disrupted as factories closed down or pivoted to manufacturing essential products. For instances Perfums Christian Dior made hand sanitiser for hospitals for free.

    A Forrester effect (also known as a bull whip effect) resulted, driving inflation that the world’s economies are coming to terms with now. Secondary effects of this event were the increased interest rates used to reduce demand driven inflation.

    Other secondary effects include increased crime levels. London has gone from a luxury shoppers paradise, to having a global reputation amongst elites of being plagued by violent watch and bag robberies. COVID-19 isn’t the only driver of this crime wave, but is a contributing factor.

    It has also had a catalysing effect on reducing globalisation to increase national resilience.

    Consumers know that a good deal of luxury goods don’t match up with the European artisan heritage story that brands try to sell them. Experts like William Lasry has made public which brands make what kind of products where. Luxury brands often make in places like China due to capability and scale – similar reasons to why Apple products are designed in California and assembled in China. (Seriously, check out William Lasry’s channels, I love some of his visits to high-end Japanese manufacturers).

    China

    China has been a key focus for luxury brand, but it has changed in a number of different ways:

    • Chinese consumers have changed in their confidence of native brands and have a lower opinion of many foreign brands. This is partly down to a change in attitudes called guo chao. Guo chao can be traced back to the increased confidence in the run up to the 2008 olympics in Beijing. This was partly fuelled by a series of essays published in 1996 by the likes of academic Wang Xiaodong called China Can Say Now which advocated a modern robust form of Chinese nationalism, which was in stark contrast to the Deng-era vision of globalisation and biding one’s time. In the April before the olympics Chinese consumers boycotted French supermarket brand Carrefour. Over time the negativity of these boycotts have become more-and-more performative and extra-territorial in nature. The current Xi administration has seen fit to weaponise this nationalist sentiment by directing (wrangling is a more accurate term, like cowboys with a cattle train in the Old West) public opinion to further its own ends. A more positive aspect of it has been a more open market for domestic ateliers and brands than had been seen previously. Since before 2019, there have been Chinese efforts to build a rival luxury groups to LVMH and Kering and this fits in with Xi’s distaste for irrational worship of the west.
    • Xi-era growth. China under Xi Jinping faces multiple challenges around growth. The population is aging and in decline which has implications for declining consumption. Secondly economic growth has slowed compared to the double digit annual economic growth of the Deng, Jiang and Hu administrations. Foreign direct investment in China has declined for a mix of reasons including unattractive Chinese government policies, decline in China’s country brand and long term economic growth forecasts.

    Regulatory change

    I know what you’re thinking ok, this is very well Ged, but what does it have to do with omakase and luxury futures? Give me a little bit more time and all will be revealed.

    While China is an economic superpower with a desire to export its world view and the United States is a hard and soft power super power; the European Union’s super power is legislative in nature.

    European regulation drove the globalisation of the GSM mobile telephony standards during the 1990s and 2000s. They have also driven increasing internet privacy standards on web services, much to the chagrin of Alphabet, Meta and Twitter.

    Now they are driving environmental standards across a range of areas including:

    • A carbon tax to take into account the use of fossil fuels in extraction of raw materials, transportation, energy as an input to manufacturing and processing materials.
    • Product passports from raw materials to product end-of-life encouraging a circular economy and sustainable manufacturing.

    This means that the luxury sector has new restrictions on how it operates in the future.

    In summary:

    • We’ve likely reached peak massification due to economic and trade changes.
    • Market share in China looks uncertain due to changes in consumer sentiment and tastes, meaning, a more local approach might be required or a strategic withdrawal.
    • Secondary markets show that consumers are open to ownership beyond pristine new products.
    • Product passports and European legislation means re-examining the whole supply chain and the data to better control it through an entire product life.

    Finally, omakase and luxury futures!

    Omakase and luxury look like a happy meeting in the future. Think about the tenets of omakase.

    • An expert provides a personalised experience that is about quality, ceremony and theatre.
    • The expert decides what you will have and prepares it for you. You are there from selection to the provision of the item.
    • The ingredients are of fine quality (and often locally sourced).

    Going back to go forward.

    The future of luxury is about looking back. Tailors who suited generations of families and made alterations to Grandfather’s suit that the son is now wearing. The shirt maker replacing the collars and cuffs. The shoe-maker who refurbishes your shoes and has a set of lasts with your name on, for when he has to make a new set. Getting measured, having your foot cast for a last or getting your watch could be memorable events once again. So there this a precedence for expertise and service levels. But it implies a retail experience that will change dramatically.

    New techniques and questions.

    Previously with the exception of measuring sessions, these processes were largely concealed from the consumer and were difficult to scale. So it’s worthwhile thinking about how luxury’s omakase future could be extended with modern technology? We have some experiments that might give us some ideas. First up, L’Oreal has showcased bespoke make-up manufacture for a while.

    How could high-end perfume makers adapt for products beyond make-up? Improved analysis equipment from the likes of Oxford Nanopore could facilitate individually formulated fragrance products based on skin chemistry.

    Adidas experimented with its Speedfactory concept that blended the retail and shoe assembly together.

    Technologically there is a lot of promising ideas. Adidas have worked with up-cycled plastics retrieved from the debris brought together by an ocean gyre made into 3d printed soles and fibres. (Look for the Parley label, who Adidas partnered with on this.)

    How can additive or automated manufacturing and other processes feel luxe? In what way could they add to the theatre?

    This hybridisation of retail and manufacturing changes the nature of both offline and online retail completely. Would even the largest concession in Selfridges or a shopping mall be big enough, or would fashion houses need a single purpose brand experience?

    Given that there is likely to be a bit more time between manufacture and presentation of the product than there would be in a sashimi restaurant, what else would go into the maison experience? LVMH is already investing in hotels and resorts like Cheval Blanc which gives it a better understanding of more areas in luxury experience and service.

    Localisation would likely to be needed to handle omakase and luxury due to culture and the need for local materials. This might include new materials, such as fungus-derived leather. Of course, this might have negative implications for luxury house supply chains, whether it’s Louis Vuitton’s iconic plastic coated leather, or the Hermés crocodile farm.

    Which means that product line-ups could no longer be global in nature. So luxury companies may revisit that the creative process looks like. Should there be a single global vision anymore? Luxury maisons instincts would be to say yes, but could this be an opportunity to own local ateliers in markets like China or the US?

    • Will there be more local brands instead?
    • What will a maison’s heritage mean in the future? A luxury maison is about what remains the same as much as what changes. What will happen to long-standing motifs?
    • Will there be a greater opportunity for more auteurs who are closer to the customers?
    • How to bridge the tension in terms of choosing for the customer and creativity as well as quality?

    We’re talking a very different profile of creative in terms of thinking, attitudes and skills compared to the present.

    Service, repair and reuse could learn a lot lessons from traditional tailors and the service networks of watchmakers like Rolex or luggage maker Rimowa.

    I could not think of a more exciting or scary time to be setting the brand direction for a luxury maison, let alone the overall direction or the likes of LVMH. But by wrapping local materials, expertise, ritual and a bit of theatre the future could look like a fusion of omakase and luxury.

    More information

  • Very Ralph and other things

    Very Ralph

    Very Ralph is a documentary that celebrates the career of Ralph Lauren. What’s interesting is Lauren’s lack of expertise in fashion and design. Instead Very Ralph captures Lauren’s childhood ability as a stylist and art director to eventually create a Ralph Lauren world. Very Ralph became a descriptor of a style and a lifestyle. It’s a very unique way of brand building that you usually see from the likes of Muji rather than many luxury brands.

    Polo Ralph Lauren

    If Apple could have a ‘Very Ralph‘ moment their role in luxury tech would be cemented beyond the Mac and the iPhone. Charlie Rose’s seminal interview with Ralph Lauren is also worth watching.

    Living wake

    A generation before me in Ireland, living wakes were a thing. Usually it was when a member of the family was migrating to the United States, Canada or Australia. Michelle ‘Mike’ Ng’s living wake was because she had state four cancer. The film is an emotional rollercoaster.

    Miss Goddess of Beauty

    A lot of what keeps Hong Kong (and Singapore for that matter), is the hundreds of thousands of domestic helpers who run middle class households. They cook, care for the elderly, clean the homes, do the shopping and bring up the children. While being cheery and sociable people they largely remain unseen and unheard; except for Sundays when they congregate in public spaces.

    Despite the western view of beauty pageants as objectifying women by MEN, Miss Goddess of Beauty is different. It allows these women to to be seen and creatively express themselves. The entire event is organised by the community of domestic helpers. Although the ladies are predominantly Filipinas, there is at least one Indonesian participant in the pageant – a solidarity built on a shared experience in Hong Kong.

    Quentin Tarantino on going to see The Matrix

    Tarantino recalls how the TV spots, rather than reviews or word-of-mouth drove the viewership of The Matrix. The power of advertising to build a world that excited the heck out of the audience before they saw the movie.

  • Morizo and more things

    Morizo

    Akio ‘Morizo’ Toyoda, of the Toyoda family who made their first fortune designing automatic textile looms in the early 20th century and their second fortune as the founders of Toyota. During the week Toyoda-san is the chairman of Toyota Jidōsha kabushikigaisha. But in his spare time he liked to do circuit racing under the name Morizo. At first, the Morizo name was to keep his moonlighting racing of the radar of Toyota board. But recently it has become an asset, with Toyota and its GR performance brand creating some of the best drivers cars available.

    Toyota have started to use his natural enthusiasm for the company’s benefit. The Lexus LBX Morizo RR is currently a concept car that sees a baby Lexus LBX SUV benefit from the mechanicals of a Toyota GR Yaris.

    Although talk about this as a Morizo only concept, it feels like the company might be feeling consumers out to possibly put this into manufacturing. If they did this, it would allow the company to take advantage of the GR Yaris-only components currently made and use them more widely.

    The Criterion closet

    Criterion as a publisher of DVDs and Blu-Rays is a badge of quality. The closest equivalent in the UK would be Curzon who bought Artificial Eye a number of years ago. One of the things Criterion do is video taste-makers who are allowed to take away some of their favourite films away from the company’s stock. Here are a couple of my favourites.

    William Dafoe

    Hideo Kojima

    Watch trends

    While much watch collector videos know feel more like Bloomberg reporting on a commodity because of the rise in the secondary market, this wrap-up strikes a nice balance. Some of the factors mentioned in this review appeared in my 2023 wrap-up and here.

    Mexican street culture

    If you had uttered those words to me before this week, I would have immediately thought of saints festivals, the day of the dead and the Chicano culture that grew out of Mexican communities who emigrated to the US. But there is so much more in Mexico itself as Refinery 29 shows in this film.

    The 50 French words test

    You can imagine the brief that came down to this government department in Quebec: make more English speaking visitors and businesses come to our province. The insights being along the lines of most English speakers don’t feel confident dealing with a foreign language, so how to do demystify French.

    I don’t know who the Ministère des Relations internationales et de la Francophonie used, but they deserve every penny of their fee with this film.

  • Vicki Dutton

    Vicki Dutton (or Vicky Dutton) was a fashion pioneer. Dutton was married to an Irish-born British civil servant working under the first Lee Kuan Yew administration of a self-run Singapore. She was a Malay woman living in Singapore.

    Singapore

    Singapore was recovering from the Japanese occupation, but there were still a large amount of social and economic problems:

    • Poor housing and overcrowding
    • Unemployment
    • Poor labour relations
    • Organised crime

    These challenges also provide opportunity for some people. And so Singapore saw the start of a vibrant media and fashion industry.

    Bright lights, big city

    The Singapore of Vicki Dutton had been moving at a rate of knots and the only constant was change.

    Growth and peak

    What we think of as modern Singapore is a relatively recent construct. When Sir Stamford Raffles arrived on behalf of the British Empire in 1819, the population was about a 1,000-strong. Of which only a few dozen were ethnic Chinese. In the next five years the population grew ten-fold. Two years later and there were move Chinese than Malays due to migration. From the end of the first world war to the beginning of the second world war, Singapore actually declined in importance as the US and Japan rose to prominence.

    During the second world war, Singapore suffered horribly with the regimented Sook Ching killings taking place across Singapore and Malaya designed to eliminate resistance before it took hold.

    Remaking

    The second world war shattered the illusion of the British Empire in Asia, as its military might was taken to pieces by the army, navy and air force of Imperial Japan. But this opened up new possibilities for Singaporeans. Europeans were no longer a breed apart. This drove a re-examination of local traditions by Singaporeans.

    Post-war saw a rebuilding of lives and preparing for a Singaporean future. By 1959 Singapore was self-ruled.

    But this process brought turmoil including riots and communist terrorism. Singapore joined the newly created state of Malaysia, but a few years later was ejected.

    Re-examination of local traditions

    Vicki Dutton was a woman of Malay heritage married to an Irish man. She was cosmopolitan enough to move within the upper-echelons of Singapore society at the time. She had also travelled to Europe and had access to the latest trends coming out of events like London and Paris fashion weeks.

    In edition, the regularly contributed to Singapore’s fashion magazines as a writer.

    Dutton was able to model her own creations as well as having the talent to design and make them.

    While she did have privilege, she also held progressive views, commenting that locals could be as pretty and equally well dressed as Europeans. Their skin tone being similar to many Spanish people. She became famous in Singapore and beyond for blending local styles with western cuts. The cinched waist popularised by Christian Dior quickly found its way into Dutton’s work that then clothed the well-to-do of Singapore and beyond. Dutton was famous for interpreting the kebaya and the sarong for a fashionable look.

    Vicki Dutton’s creation made it to Paris fashion week, thanks to a Singapore government that wanted to promote the country and its nascent industries.

    Over time, Vicki Dutton’s contribution to Singaporean fashion was forgotten and only recently brought back to the attention of the public through Channel News Asia’s programming focusing on forgotten pioneers.

    You can even see Dutton’s influence in the work Pierre Balmain did in 1972 to create the iconic kebaya and sarong based uniform for Singapore Airlines.

    Tragedy of Pulau Senang

    Pulau Senang is today largely peaceful. As an island off the coast of Singapore it is now used as a live firing range by Singapore’s air force and their navy. The name translates to ‘isle of ease’. Back in 1960, the island served a very different purpose. A work camp for organised criminal gang members was set up by Vicki Dutton’s husband at the request of the Singapore government. This was supposed to serve a few purposes

    • Ease the over-crowding at Changi prison
    • Give criminals an opportunity to return to society
    • Provide useful skills

    The first few years of the camp was successful and apparently rehabilitated some 200 secret society members. Here’s what Reuters said about what happened on July 18, 1963:

    A BRITISH PRISON SUPERINTENDENT AND THREE GUARDS WERE HACKED TO DEATH AND 28 WARDERS WERE WOUNDED IN 30 MINUTES OF SADISM AND TERROR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SUN-BAKED PENAL ISLAND OF PULAU SENANG (ISLE OF EASE), TEN MILES FROM SINGAPORE.

    A HEAVY ESCORT OF POLICE TOOK DETAINEES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND AFTER MORE THAN 300 OF THEM WENT ON AN INHUMAN RAMPAGE. THEY GOUGED OUT THE EYES OF MR DANIEL S. DUTTON, THE SUPERINTENDENT, AND HACKED HIM SLOWLY TO DEATH WITH NATIVE GARDENING TOOLS. MR TAILFORD, HIS DEPUTY, WAS STABBED IN THE TEMPLE AND IS IN A SINGAPORE HOSPITAL IN A SERIOUS CONDITION.

    Detainees removed from island after prison riot – British Pathé

    One can only imagine the turmoil this must have caused. Dutton eventually left Singapore behind and lived for much of the rest of her life in the United Kingdom.

    Similar posts can be found here.

    More information

    A MODEL IN A SARONG AND KEBAYA DESIGNED BY VICKI DUTTON. (Singapore Press Holdings via the National Archive of Singapore) – although not identified in the photo caption. Vicki Dutton is modelling her own creation

    [VICKY DUTTON] [PRETTY MODEL, VICKY DUTTON, POSES IN SARONG | National Archive of Singapore

    PULAU SENANG RIOT – GRIEF-STRICKEN MRS VICKY DUTTON AT THE FUNERAL OF HER LATE HUSBAND DANIEL S DUTTON AT BIDADARI CEMETARY (Singapore Press Holdings via National Archive of Singapore)

  • A Hackers Mind by Bruce Schneier

    I eagerly anticipated reading A Hackers Mind, being a long-time follower of Bruce Schneier’s blog. A Hackers Mind caters to the well-informed individual. Schneier commences by defining what constitutes a hacker, delving into the essence of hacking and its widespread prevalence.

    A hackers mind

    Subsequently, Schneier takes us on a journey into a hackers mind, guiding us through fundamental hacks targeting:

    • ATMs (automatic teller machines or cash machines)
    • Casinos
    • Airline frequent flier miles
    • Sports systems
    • Financial networks
    • The legal realm
    • Politics

    Through these examples, Schneier aims to illustrate the parasitic nature of hacks on the systems they target, offering various techniques to impede or render them unfeasible. In doing so, he makes a broader socio-political statement about how the very foundation of the economy and society is continuously ‘hacked’.

    The implication is that power lies in a hacker’s mind being applied to the systems that govern our lives. And that with the right mindset and ‘hack’ the ordinary person can turn the tables on those in power. 

    When this happens it makes great film or television. (A classic example of this would be ITV’s People vs. Post Office which told the story of postmasters combating wrongful prosecutions due to software defects. The reality was that in that particular case, it actually took the media coverage around the TV drama being shown to actually start moving the needle.) 

    Schneier in his book recognises that over time societies have evolved to become more equitable over time. He also attributes late stage capitalism to the hackers mindset, mixed with resources and technical capability in law or finance. The book is designed to wake the public up with a view to them also developing a A Hackers Mind and hacking the system back to equilibrium.

    It’s an interesting light read, but I think VR pioneer and author Jaron Lanier writes better books focusing on the inequities inherent in the intersection of technology, culture and society. A great example of this is his book Who Owns The Future?

    I don’t think Schneier gets close to inspiring his desired outcome with A Hacker’s Mind, but if you want something above the usual airport reading then it gets a thumps up from me, but it won’t be staying on my book shelf for me to re-read it at a later date. For more book reviews and recommendations go here. For recommendations of non-fiction books in particular go here.