Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • Vivid cyberspace

    I have been thinking about a vivid cyberspace. I left my original iPad with my parents so we could have regular talks over Skype. I set up my new iPad (I have gone for a mini this time) and pulled up photos from my old iPad back-up. I used the screen capture function as a way of taking notes (usually infographics or adverts that caught my eye) to form a scrapbook on my iPad.

    I was reviewing this images and came across a diagram from Max Whitby that looked media in terms of two sets of attributes: vividness and interactivity. I have redrawn the diagram here:
    Interactivity versus Vividness

    What becomes immediately apparent is that outside of literature, development of vivid cyberspace experiences has been a bit of a wash-out. In fact, with many of the most vivid experiences that have been created were attempted in the movie industry or amusement parks 50+ years ago.

    Secondly, there has been a decline in ambition amongst products that do get to market. During the first spurts of the commercial web ambitions of vividness and interactivity went hand-in-hand. Virtual reality headsets had moved out of the military and laboratory environment to some high-end arcades.

    Zeiss made glasses that provided a virtual screen to provide the big-screen TV experience in a smaller space. Mark Pesce’s VRML portented a vivid 3-D web experience that didn’t come to pass. VRML eventually became X3D, but some two decades later, I still don’t have cyberspace as envisaged by William Gibson.

    Haptics are moving along at a snails pace and augmented reality moving along a little faster.

    Before RSS, there was push technology; the PointCast Network and client software provided a more vivid experience than any RSS reader, some eight years before Twitter. Developments of products like Facebook and twitter have iterated on prior social platforms from internet chat and forums to messaging platforms. But all of these ‘developments’ haven’t moved the needle in terms of providing vivid experiences.

    From a marketing perspective both content and interactivity have become more important as brands become social and build ‘content factories’ yet there hasn’t been any efforts to provide vivid brand experiences that would be engaging to the consumer. Pop-up stores and experiential events are fleeting spurts of creating a vivid brand with varying degrees of success. There is a lot more mileage yet in the black spaces of the diagram above. More related content can be found here.

  • Windows 8 sales

    From the changing interface to an absence of a start button, the analysts came out with reasons that felt unsatisfactory. It isn’t a lack of quality, if you look at the reviews by the technology press of Windows’95, you’ll see a product that sucked in a way that made Vista look perfect by comparison; yet it went on to be the best-selling Microsoft product ever. Windows 8 has its problems, but in comparison to Vista its a really well made product. The fundamentally-flawed Windows 95 was the acme of Microsoft’s position in the marketplace. Given all this spurious debate, I thought I would throw some ideas out instead:

    • The economy – China now has single digit growth, economists generally agree that India isn’t living up to its economic potential. Brazil has problems, Europe is still going through the great restructure. The US is growing slowly but full of turmoil as government spending is causing uncertainty. All of these factors will affect purchases across IT and consumer electronics
    • The web – the biggest thing the web did was negate operating system specific file formats like those on Windows 8 applications. You no longer need to write a document in Word or a spreadsheet in Excel. Enterprise applications no longer need to have a client piece of software running on a PC. This also means that you don’t need to follow software release cycles to keep your PC relevant. Given that the killer app for the PC is the web, replacement cycles for computers have lengthened. A friend of mine, recently had their iPad, iPhone 5 and PowerBook stolen in their house. Yes, that’s right I said PowerBook, their laptop which they were happy with was about seven years old…
    • Opportunity costs – So you have a computer that’s a few years old, but you are still happy with it and smartphones moving forwards more rapidly, so need to be replaced every 18 months to two years. The new PC purchase will get put on the back-burner
    • Substitute products for a Windows 8 PC – This is the classic butter-margarine example that economics teachers used to trot out before low-fat spreads caught the awareness of coronary wary consumers. But in a web-based world tablets that provide a PC like web experience are a substitute for a full-blooded personal computer. An iPad can run Myst, show video and communicate with others via the internet
    • A lack of a compelling reason to upgrade – Robert X. Cringely wrote his book Accidental Empires back in the early 1990s, had a whole chapter on the future of computing. One of the most striking parts of this chapter for me was a paragraph with a quote from Ken Okin who worked at Sun Microsystems at the time:  Ken Okin, who was in charge of hardware engineering for the Lisa and now heads the group designing Sun Microsystems’ newest workstations, keeps a Lisa in his office at Sun just to help his people put their work in perspective. “We still have a multitasking operating system with a graphical user interface and bit-mapped screen, but back then we did it with half a mip [one mip equals one million computer instructions per second] in 1 megabyte of RAM,” he said. “Today on my desk I have basically the same system, but this time I have 16 mips and an editor that doesn’t seem to run in anything less than 20 megabytes of RAM. It runs faster, sure, but what will it do that is different from the Lisa? It can do round windows; that’s all I can find that’s new. Round windows, great!”  So even back as far as the early 1990s there was a lack of a compelling reason to upgrade from machine-to-machine. This is even more of the case now. Cringely claimed that in order to have a radical jump in software appearance you would need a corresponding jump in the hardware. The last big jump that we had in personal computing was the tablet PDA
    • The declining power of the IT guy – between BYOD (bring your own device) and the rise of small or freelance businesses there are less traditional corporate users. The power of the Microsoft Certified system is diminished and with that decline has gone the ability to specify a Windows-based computer
    • The law of big numbers – Microsoft already has a huge installed user base, most sales will not be won from its competitors but from itself. That’s a tough place to be if people are looking for stellar growth
    • Paradigm shifts mean deskilling people – Metro represents a new way of using a computer. It threatens consumers current computer literacy knowledge. For many consumers there was no on-ramp
    • Divergence, convergence and the sitting room – a perfect storm of dedicated media server substitute products (Roku, Boxee, Apple TV), smart TVs, games consoles and tablets have squeezed the laptop, media PC and gaming machine in ‘lean back entertainment’ scenarios. We are seeing traditional brown goods being replaced by other goods (often providing a more convenient but poorer quality experience) in the living room that have also subverted multimedia computing

    Does Windows 8 mean Microsoft is doomed? No.

  • Margaret Thatcher

    This isn’t a post about what I think about Margaret Thatcher, beyond my amazement at the body politic and their inability to make appropriate decisions related to the telecoms, media and technology sectors. It has never been that much of interest to me and viewed it with a lot of my cynicism fueled by legislation like part V of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 or the Digital Economy Act 2010.

    I cited those two acts in particular, as they are empirical evidence that stupidity doesn’t run along party lines. I’ve also met some really smart politically active people who I am happy to consider my friends including Nick Osborne and Will Heald.

    Instead this post is more about trying to make sense of what happened after Margaret Thatcher died and try and contextualise it for the wider world.

    On the pro-Margaret Thatcher side of things the narrative is relatively easy. Mrs Thatcher was responsible for clearly differentiating against the Labour Party. The Conservatives came to power with a raft of ideas that they thought would reinvigorate the UK; socially and economically. Under Mrs Thatcher, the government took on and won conflicts against strong interest groups including the trade union movement – which has never recovered.

    The Margaret Thatcher administration was considered to have played a strong game abroad; from the Falklands Islands to negotiating with the European Community. She is also lauded as being a partner to Ronald Reagan on foreign policy.

    Mrs Thatcher is not President Reagan

    Whilst many American media saw an analogue between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher; I think that a closer comparison would be Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson became president at a troubled time. The politics of Thatcher and Johnson were very different but some of the factors of their administrations were very similar. America was going through economic and social change. His part in that change, in particular the civil rights movement divided voters – Johnson took decisions that were unpopular and sowed the seeds of the current bipartisanship in the US government.

    Margaret Thatcher faced similar troubled times in the UK:

    • UK industry was struggling – UK industry had suffered decades of chronic underinvestment and poor stakeholder relationships. It no longer had many of the advantages of its first mover status in the industrial age. In addition, the rebuild of mainland Europe after the war and US foreign policy towards the British Empire had accelerated the UK’s decline due to a lack of captive markets and increasing competition. Globalisation had come on stream as Korean shipyards, Japanese consumer goods and cheap Indian textiles demolished industry in the North of England. The interesting thing was that lots of foreign-run businesses in the UK were doing much better than their British counterparts so it couldn’t have been all about the workers
    • It is hard for anyone under the age of 25 to imagine it, but the Cold War promised imminent destruction which changed the relationship between western and eastern Europe. Deployment of US nuclear weapons on UK soil was emotive
    • Society generally wasn’t as liberal as it is now, being PC didn’t happen. Discrimination was rampant as the UK hadn’t addressed the changing racial and ethic mix of the country from descendants of the Windrush immigrants, the Irish and the South Asian immigrant communities. Enoch Powell had made his famous rivers of blood speech a few years before. Society wasn’t as accepting of the LGBT elements of the community
    • Foreign policy had to deal with a diminished role for the UK in the world. From trying to manage that the UK was outmaneuvered on Hong Kong by China to the unequal partnership with the US

    The conflict points

    • Monetary policy to reduce inflation – this drove up interest rates and sent many UK manufacturing businesses to the wall. A good deal of this was because Margaret Thatcher rejected Keynesian economics. Since the North of England was dependent on these businesses an economic gulf opened up between the South East and the rest of the country. Subsequent economic progress widened the gap further
    • Miners Strike – Margaret Thatcher and her cabinet sought to go head-to-head with the NUM which had brought down the Heath administration. Admittedly, the miners weren’t helped by Arthur Scargill’s leadership
    • Privatisation – took assets out of state control. It is controversial every time there is a train crash or electricity price hike as it allowed strategic assets to be owned by foreign companies the debate wages on about appropriate returns and a lack of investment
    • The big bang – deregulated banking and fueled further growth in the city. Along with the move to home ownership, new-fangled financial instruments created the conditions of the current economic crisis. The lack of a portfolio of industries in the UK economy meant the the country took a harder hit than other European countries with a similar balance sheet
    • Poll tax – the community charge or poll tax was a replacement for the property rates which used to fund council services. Since it was a flat charge on the individual it had been considered as far back as 1981 and viewed in a Green Paper to be unfair. It was eventually implemented first in Scotland and then in England and Wales in 1990. Riots ensued as the tax was considered to be unfair by many
    • Northern Ireland – the Margaret Thatcher administration had reasons to be disliked by both sides. Republicans due to the  way in which the Thatcher administration handled the Hunger Strikes in the Maze prison and the shoot-to-kill policy; Unionists due to the Anglo-Irish agreement that gave the Irish government a say in Northern Ireland’s affairs

    All of this has made the Conservatives almost unelectable in many parts of the UK; Scotland only has one Conservative MP. This is closer to the Lyndon B. Johnson analogy for Margaret Thatcher echoing Lyndon B. Johnson’s comments about losing the South for generations when he legislated on equal rights.

    Under-discussed aspects of the Thatcher administration

    • The Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs was allowed to shape and direct day-to-day policy on drug use which was at odds with Mrs Thatcher’s conviction (rather than evidence)-based approach to policy
    • Launching campaigns promoting safe sex and the dangers of AIDS. Again this sat against Mrs Thatcher’s personal beliefs in terms of family values
    • Taking climate change seriously. Prior to her career as a politician Mrs Thatcher has been a research chemist, which probably helped her understand the issue. Her understanding of climate change had nothing to do with her conflict with the miner’s unions
    • Ironically Margaret Thatcher signed the UK up to the Single European Act to create one European market
    • Abolished corporal punishment in state schools back in 1986. No more going to the headmaster’s office to be caned
    • Rupert Murdoch – Margaret Thatcher’s close relationship with Murdoch was a mutually beneficial relationship; however it set the template that led to the current news media debacle in the UK that lead to the Leveson Report

    What I can’t really explain is the amount of energy that has gone into the debate some 20 years after she left office.

    I suspect that Margaret Thatcher’s death is a point where the wider political agenda shaped by her administration has taken the UK since the mid-1990s is being debated.  This debate isn’t split along current party lines as Ed Milliband’s Labour Party is still similar to the New Labour of Tony Blair – just a bit jaded and suffering from a creative bankruptcy of new ideas.

    Secondly, when one looks at the like of the English Defence League, Casuals United and UKIP there seems to be at least part of the country who don’t feel as if mainstream politics represents them.

    Finally, there is an underlying anger in the poorer members of society for which the 2011 were a pressure valve letting off steam. Throw in some industrial action into the mix and it would all start to feel like 1979 again…

  • Blade Runner VHS tape

    If you are generation-X Blade Runner and ET were two sides of the same coin. I got to watch ET in the cinema but only got to see the Blade Runner VHS tape at first.

    Both films came out in the same year: 1982 and you got to see one, or the other. Being 12 at the time I got to see ET. It wasn’t only an age demarcation, but being a light and dark of the same scientific vision of the future. ET was light (with a couple of scary bits when the authorities capture him in the oxygen tent).

    On the other hand, Blade Runner was a dark dystopian future. The darkness fitted into the grim visage of the UK at the time, particularly in the North of England. It was no accident that some of the macro cityscapes mirrored the petro-chemical industry of Teeside where Ridley Scott grew up (and was eerily similar to the Mersey basin where I lived in the UK).
    Bladerunner Original VHS Front & Cassette
    There were also different in terms of their nature. While ET (like Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and Back To The Future) was a film filled it with consumerism.  ET was also film of passive consumption or ‘sit back media’, in that respect a very traditional film. The experience of Blade Runner was much improved if you managed to watch it on video.

    You could pause, rewind and move slowly through parts of the film to explore the multiple visual layers of the film. Given that games consoles and computers were less popular at the time videos like Blade Runner with deep rich content were the closest one had to an interactive experience.

    In fact exploring Myst a decade later and watching, pausing and rewinding Blade Runner gave me a similar kind of experience.

    Whilst I prefer the narrative of the later cuts, watching digital versions on DVD, Blu-Ray or iTunes seem too clean. Part of the experience missing is that bit of blur and white noise VHS offers, mainly because I first experienced Blade Runner on the small screen in what was then still largely an analogue world. The blur and white noise feels more ‘cyber punk’.

  • Yahoo! back to 2005?

    Back to 2005

    Events at Yahoo! this week took me back to 2005 – the halcyon days web 2.0 days before popular social networks. If you are vaguely interested in the online sector, you will have noticed that Summly has been acquired by Yahoo!. The acquisition is interesting for a number of reasons:

    • It is a statement of Yahoo!’s mobile aspirations. Yahoo! has been in mobile for a good while, back to 2005 at least. Yahoo! Go tried to pull all the of the Yahoo! portal properties into an app-like experience and Yahoo! ZoneTag was an early experiment of attributing location to smartphone pictures well before the iPhone. Upload to Flickr was integrated into many SonyEricsson and Nokia phones (notably the bestselling Nokia N73) But none of these pioneering efforts were rewarded with market share
    • Yahoo! is looking to buy cool, like it did back in 2005 and 2006, acquiring web 2.0 businesses. Summly has had about one million downloads, mostly by early adopters of its news reader. It is not the mass-market audience that Yahoo! usually targets. Like Flickr and Delicious before it this is about cool. Whilst most of the focus has been on the media, Yahoo! has historically made these purchases to try and infuse some of the start-up get up and go DNA into the larger organisation
    • Summly makes some interesting technological choices that would appeal to Yahoo!. Firstly, surfacing content that consumers would find of interest; particularly interesting given that Google has abandoned RSS. Secondly, using analytical techniques to create abridged version of content could also be a differentiator in search in terms of both presentation and as a technique to improve relevance (if the abridged rather than full versions were indexed). However, Summly doesn’t own the technology itself, but is a mashup of underlying services
    • The 30 million dollar acquisition figure being bandied around mirrors the rumoured costs of buying both Flickr and Delicious back in 2005 and 2006. One of the key differences between Flickr and Delicious with Summly is the technology benefit that was brought to the table by the web 2.0 pioneers and in Flickr’s case the quality of the business on offer. Prior to being acquired Flickr was pretty close to breaking even with its freemium model
    • Summly is an interesting focus away from the traditional Silicon  and Bay Area stomping grounds of Yahoo!

    More information
    Yahoo! to acquire Summly | Yodel Anecdotal