Ged Carroll

Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • Alibaba + more things

    Alibaba lost ambition

    Two interesting things have come out today on Alibaba: Alibaba moves closer to home with Hong Kong dual-primary listing | Financial Times – this is interesting because it implies that Alibaba either couldn’t remain in the US stock exchange with the new Chinese tiered data enterprise ruling: China plans three-tier data strategy to avoid US delistings | Financial Times or punishment of Jack Ma continues.

    jack ma

    Which means the only listings are likely to be old industry listings of state owned firms that foreign investors wouldn’t want to deal with anyway. The second one was: Alibaba scales back global expansion plan to rival Amazon | Financial Times – Alibaba.com’s US operation has failed to meet its initial targets, forcing the Chinese company to readjust its growth plans, according to three people familiar with the operations. The project has also been hit by dozens of staff departures from its New York office. The troubles at its US business-to-business arm come as Alibaba steps up its international push as its domestic operations continue to get hit by Beijing’s tech crackdown, slowing economy and rising competition. However, Alibaba.com has struggled to retain US sellers since its launch, in part down to the difficulty of competing with the prices of global merchants. “US manufacturers aren’t as competitive, the cost of everything is a lot higher including labour. The team do not have enough support internally, so they can’t get enough suppliers and sellers on board,” one current employee said – you could read this as the US is uncompetitive, or Alibaba only manages to sell on cost rather than value (quality, flexibility, after sales service don’t matter).

    Business

    Leicester garment factories still exploiting staff, study finds | Financial Times – not terribly surprising in Brexit Britain.

    Aviation sector will be disrupted for years, Qatar Airways boss says | Financial Times – “Covid has damaged the supply chain of the industry . . . I think that it will last for a couple of years — it is not going to go away tomorrow,” Akbar Al Baker told the Financial Times in an interview. Labour shortages in Europe, delays in aircraft deliveries from manufacturers and a lack of spare parts had all affected Qatar Airways, he added. – and this is without the problems that airports have faced in baggage handling etc. If aircraft deliveries were really an issue, why did Qatar pick a fight with Airbus?

    Economics

    Pakistan is in big trouble – by Noah Smith – Noahpinion – what happens when China stops writing cheques?

    Finance

    Henan protests highlight concerns over China’s rural banking sector | Financial Times – is this China’s equivalent of the 1990s Savings and Loans scandal that bedevilled the US?

    Hong Kong

    HSBC’s past may not help its future | Financial Times – There is no place in the new Hong Kong for a pre-eminent bank which is not institutionally subject to the Chinese government. As China turns inwards, it makes sense for the ruling party to want its own financiers in command of a smaller standalone lender that will be well-capitalised, regionally-focused and prepared to serve national objectives, not global shareholders. The installation of a Communist party committee at HSBC’s Chinese investment banking subsidiary, reported by the FT, is a prelude of what is to come: a slow, patient strategy of small steps designed to make inevitable a break-up already determined on high in Beijing. That is why Ping An has fired the first shot in the final battle over the colonial legacy of Hong Kong — a place China has always called “a problem left over from history”. – the smart play would be to cut the PRC and Hong Kong business off from the rest of the network. While China is the growth engine, it relies on the rest of the network for this profitable wealth management business. Secondly, what will happen with Standard Chartered?

    Ideas

    Reviving Progress in the UK – there is an issue with the capital injection required by the plans outlined. Would anyone trust the UK government that they would be able to execute in a competent manner on the ideas? I think that the UK is suffering from a crisis of competence as much as anything else.

    Japan

    Majority of younger Japanese people in survey respect less than 30 percent of their old coworkers | SoraNews24 – crumbling social contract of salary men and the iron rice bowl

    Legal

    Sextortion: a Costly Hell for Celebs, CEOs, Sports Stars

    Luxury

    Cultural appropriation vs appreciation: Can luxury brands in China tell the difference? | Campaign Asia – a mix of things going on here. Poor executions of ‘Chinese-ness’ by western brands historically (I’m looking at you Burberry) and nationalism which has made consumers much more confident and intolerant – rather than cultural appropriation a la ‘African American hair’ style concerns.

    Marketing

    Best of the Week: Sorrell is a unicorn no longer; and Facebook pulled the rug on news again – good analysis of why S4 puzzled some of us industry veterans who had worked at Sorrell-era WPP of miserly pay rises, terrible IT equipment due to penny pinching and constantly lengthening periods between pay reviews

    Media

    Associated Press Aims to Drop the Term “Assault Rifle” from StylebookThe Firearm Blog – really interesting change towards more neutral language while the progressive media obsesses about the new SIG-Sauer MCX Spear which is similar in terms of lethal effect to the longer range rifles field during the first part of the cold war. These cold war era designs have been modernised and are available to gun owners across most of the US. The MCX Spear relies on a newer, harder to get ammunition. This ammunition is also harder to fill at home than existing formats like the earlier NATO 5.56mm and 7.62mmm rounds. Older weapons like the Heckler & Koch G3 are a bit heavier but offer a similar performance, yet you wouldn’t get this information from the progressive media. Regardless of your opinion on gun control, the facts matter.

    “I HAVE NOTHING TO HIDE” | Campaign Monitor – Ad Contrarian on privacy and ad platforms

    Retailing

    Maybe We Don’t Need Groceries in 15 Minutes After All – The New York Times

    Shein shed $30b in value since April, private bids show – not that surprising given how disposable has declined

    Security

    CNN Exclusive: FBI investigation determined Chinese-made Huawei equipment could disrupt US nuclear arsenal communications – CNNPolitics

    Software

    Revealed: Documents Show How Roblox Planned to Bend to Chinese Censorship

    Taiwan

    Taiwan’s ‘time machine’ house recreates, preserves memories of Hong Kong — Radio Free Asia – this is a really interesting project by Hong Kong expats, for Hong Kong expats based in Taiwan. The idea of collective memory and nostalgia also came through this piece here: Mementos of a vanished Hong Kong pile up at vintage second-hand store amid emigration wave – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP 

    Technology

    Beijing detains high-flying Tsinghua semiconductor boss, report says | Financial Times – Zhao Weiguo, the former head of an expansive Chinese conglomerate with state backing and deep investments in the global technology sector, has been placed under investigation by officials in Beijing, according to local media. The 54-year-old, who led cash-strapped chipmaking giant Tsinghua Unigroup for a decade, has been out of contact after being taken from his home by authorities in mid-July, reported Caixin, a Chinese business publication.

    Telecoms

    Eutelsat to bid for OneWeb – eeNews Europe and interesting direct state involvement in the combined business UK and France to get board seats in planned Eutelsat and OneWeb tie-up | Financial Times 

  • Guyana + more stuff

    Chinese business corruption in Guyana

    For a while Vice News was the hotness in news reporting, now they seem to have got their mojo back with a report on Chinese business people taking advantage of corruption at the highest level in Guyana. British Hong Konger Isobel Yeung did an amazing report on how Chinese business, especially state owned enterprises, had supercharged corruption in Guyana.

    Hyundai N Vision 74

    Korean car manufacturer has been following the path taken by the likes of Toyota to expand from being a manufacturer of value, but low margin cars. This involved making a luxury division – Genesis is a clear Lexus analogue but with Korean characteristics. N is their version of what used to be Toyota’s TRD or Gazoo Racing as it is now.

    Hyundai N Vision 74

    The N Vision 74 shows a reignition of Hyundai’s interest in hydrogen fuel cells for passenger cars, Hyundai had paused hydrogen fuel cell development for passenger cars in 2021. Presumably the higher energy density of fuel cells together with the skyrocketing price of lithium and cobalt has caused to them to resurrect the programme? The design is a homage to Italdesign’s Hyundai Pony Coupe concept from 1974. The same year Italdesign had also designed the first Volkswagen Scirocco and the Alfa Romeo GTV. Many commentators have compared it to the later DeLorean DMC 12. The DMC 12 was also designed by Italdesign in 1981.

    Hyundai N Vision 74

    There is a good deal of 1970s and 1980s track car vibes in there as well including a louvred back window and muscular arches. The wheels seem to use vintage Speedline influenced guards that would funnel air into the brake discs but keep rocks, sand and snow ingress to a minimum.

    Japanese itchiness

    Japanese skincare brand Muhi is a line of products that deal with itchy or irritated skin from the likes of allergies or insect bites. They have launched a campaign that deals with the subject of crotch itch including an e-sports tournament and a branded series of anime. The e-sport tournament is a clever way of getting attention for the series of crotch related games that they have on the Muhi website.

    Perun

    Perun has done some of the better analysis for armchair warriors following the Ukraine war. The analysis is thoughtful and doesn’t have an inherent bias. He had used to run a mediocre gaming channel, but analysis seems to be his strength.

  • Airport chaos + more things

    Airport chaos

    Emirates statement on operations at London Heathrow – Emirates lays into London Heathrow’s airport chaos. The airport chaos has been labelled ‘airmageddon’, due to the restriction in numbers of passengers who can fly in and out of Heathrow in a given day of just 100,000 people. That’s 25,000 people a day lower than last year. While there is similar restrictions at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport and a complete failure of their baggage system.

    Signage

    China

    China’s Collapsing Global Image – China’s image abroad has declined significantly in the past four years, a sharp revearsal from the relative popularity it enjoyed in Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe from the 1990s to the late 2010s. While previous Chinese regimes stressed humble non-intervention on the global stage, distributed generous infrastructure funding via the Belt and Road Initiative, and conducted massive soft power outreach programs through media and academia, many of these strategies have been reversed or rendered ineffective.  As Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia Joshua Kurlantzick notes, “[there] are multiple reasons for China’s deteriorating global public image. China’s overall rising authoritarianism at home, its cover-up of the initial COVID-19 outbreak, and its brutal repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang have hurt its perception among many foreign publics. China’s continued zero-COVID strategy has cut it off from much of the world, undermined people-to-people relations with other states, and cast some doubt on the Chinese model of development—even among some Chinese citizens.” – worthwhile contrasting with the following research, which implies a negative but more complex and nuanced situation – China seen as better than EU in completing African projects, survey finds | South China Morning Post – Poll of more than 1,000 policymakers on the continent puts priority on physical infrastructure, speedy results and non-interference in internal political affairs. European Union charts higher on quality of products or services delivered; good working conditions; creating jobs for Africans; upholding environmental standards

    Ethics

    Chinese vaping giant flouting UK advertising rules on selling to children | E-cigarettes | The Guardian – the internet facilitates lawless commerce. Not terribly surprised that this happened. And it adds to the drumbeat of news that should foreshadow a crackdown on TikTok

    Finance

    HSBC installs Communist party committee in Chinese investment bank | Financial Times – I don’t think that it would be beyond the realm of possibility seeing HSBC China and Hong Kong breaking off ARM China style under the auspices of Ping An and the Chinese government. Ping An is actually a cross holding: HSBC is the largest shareholder in Ping An and vice versa. The question is can they take the bulk of the HSBC Asia businesses with them like Singapore et al as well? This could happen based on company structure and western shareholders would be left with the equivalent of an empty husk

    Value stocks are ready for their moment | Financial Times 

    Why Xi Jinping changed tack in his crackdown on Didi | Financial Times – one does have to wonder if this was more about graft and the lack of the Xi faction benefiting from Didi as anything else?

    Ideas

    France, Farmers, and the Failing ‘Extreme Center’ – interesting read and perspective

    Innovation

    USICA enters the wilderness – Protocol – failure of US technology legislation

    Japan

    Virtual YouTuber finds a way to shake hands with real-world fans, give them high-fives in Japan | SoraNews24– really interesting exercise in user experience design mixing the real and virtual

    Luxury

    Fashion Obscura: Hussein Chalayan’s Outsider Fashion – The V&A held an exhibition of his work several years ago (I think 2009) that was amazing

    Hussein Chalayan design

    Manolo Blahnik wins 22-year legal fight over China trademark | Financial Times – which means that they lost out on the golden age of China’s luxury sales. Expect things to get a lot leaner as Xi Jingping gets in for another term and tries to move the party towards the controlling force in all markets.

    Media

    Arnell: Is HBO Max’s retreat from Europe the start of a trend? – The Media Leader

    Security

    Hong Kong Law Reform Commission proposes 5 new offences to rein in cybercrime, with tougher penalties of up to life imprisonment | South China Morning Post – Will this proposed ordinance be available as a charge, with the prosecution claiming the criminal intent is an offence involving national security?” he asked. “Could all social media become a target? Given the wide criminalisation of speech in the context of national security and sedition charges is there a risk a charge under this ordinance will be added?” Davis said he was also worried the proposed amendment would be used to reverse the outcome of an earlier decision by the Court of Appeal in 2019 which limits the reach of an ordinance that prohibits “access to a computer with criminal or dishonest intent” to cover a person using their own tech devices.

    Wireless

    Ooredoo to sell Myanmar operations – report – Telecompaper – nine years ago I was helping Telenor launch in the Myanmar market and Ooredoo was launching at the same time. Interest penetration in Myanmar was about 2% at the time.

  • The Power Law by Sebastian Mallaby

    The Power Law lays out VC history

    The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Art of Disruption does for the technology venture capital industry what Accidental Empires and Where Wizards Stay Up Late did for the technologists that they financed.

    The Power Law

    About the author Sebastian Mallaby

    Prior to reading The Power Law Mallaby wasn’t a familiar name to me. Looking into his background I could see why, Mallaby is a Washington Post columnist and specialises in international economics for the Council of Foreign Relations. A perfect CV for a policy wonk. His previous works have included a biography of Alan Greenspan, the World Bank and a book on hedge funds.

    What the book doesn’t cover

    The origins of modern venture capital in the pre-second world war era was through the family offices of people like the Wallenbergs and the Rockefellers. The Power Law only picks up the story post-war and has a distinct US bias in its storytelling.

    Synopsis of The Power Law

    George Doriot

    Mallaby starts the story with Georges Frédéric Doriot and the American Research and Development Corporation (ARDC). What’s interesting Doriot is how he was different from today’s VCs with a focus on patriotism. Doriot is most famous for his funding of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), an enterprise computer company whose mini-computers facilitated the early internet and many business computer systems. At the time of DEC, the Boston area seriously rivalled the Bay Area as the technology centre.

    Treacherous eight

    As the book goes into the story of Arthur Rock and his relationship with the treacherous eight who left Bill Shockley’s lab, this is where many Silicon Valley histories start to coalesce with The Power Law. Mallaby adds a little more, such as the 600x return that both the eight and Rock enjoyed from their investment. At 96, Rock is still alive at the time of writing. He is more recently remembered for his involvement of firing of Steve Jobs from Apple in 1985, a good deal of this came down to his distaste for Jobs informal appearance.

    Sandhill Road

    Arthur Rock and former Doriot student Bill Draper benefited from being in the right place and at the right time. The US government looked to spur innovation as part of the cold war and the Bay Area was were much of this innovation would happen. Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins followed soon after, these names are now central to the Sandhill Road venture capital ecosystem, but in 1972 they were just starting off with businesses like Atari. Atari wasn’t started by experienced business professionals, but by a twenty something who thought meetings in the hot tub were a good idea. Atari marked a point in time when VCs had to become the adults in room, or as Mallaby put it ‘active investors’.

    What I didn’t realise at the time was how early in Kleiner Perkin’s history was their engagement with biotech pioneer Genentech. I didn’t realise that Genentech was funded before Apple and was more a peer of Tandem Computers. Much of the early networking was based on a two-way door between established venture funded firms that were descendants of the treacherous eight and early venture capital firms that employed experienced executives as partners.

    Apple was notable for two reasons. Firstly, venture capital firms operated for the first time rather like an insurance syndicate with several funding the business rather than one large investor. Secondly, the returns on Apple seems to have solidified the model and bought niche financing to a wider awareness beyond the geographic pockets of the technology industry. Where many books like Accidental Empires would use this as a jumping off point to tell the story of the PC industry. The Power Law instead talks about computer networking, this makes sense if one thinks of Metcalfe’s Law as the power law that matters the most in the internet age. The early east coast venture capital community were more cautious than their west coast counterparts, partly because the east coast technology corridor had less of a loose network of connections compared to the west coast. I think that the different business culture of the east coast also had an effect.

    Connectors

    Doerr connected Cypress Semiconductor and Sun Microsystems, two companies that Kleiner Perkins funded so that they would make the SPARC RISC microprocessor. You could put this as the starting point for the golden age of UNIX servers and workstations – which we can trace forward to today’s Mac range and modern Google servers.

    Doerr had attempted other alliances before and in this way we see a different way how Metcalfe’s Law was the power law of the title. VCs has access to several nodes that they could connect together to try and build a technical vision. This is different to the idea we’re usually sold of the tech visionary / company founder a la the Google founders, Mark Zuckerberg or Steve Jobs.

    Meanwhile Don Valentine of Sequoia Capital usurped the founders of Cisco Systems and brought in a new team to run the business bilking the founders out of much of their money. Part of this was down to one of the original Cisco founders being a woman.

    Government money

    The VC industry of the early 1990s capitalised on government money. Netscape was a remake of Mosiac which was the first graphic internet browser software developed in the NCSA software design group. This was part of the government-funded National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) at the University of Illinois. UUNET was a commercial ISP based on the back of the ARPANET email delivery system. As the dotcom boom took off it was the largest ISP and the fastest growing. UUNET eventually became part of MCI WorldCom and then Verizon, where UUNET remains a key part of the Verizon business offering. Both Netscape and UUNET were viewed at VC successes but as The Power Law shows, the reality was more complicated.

    Irrational behaviour

    I thought that the original dot.com boom was irrational behaviour, but I learned from the account of GO Computers a decade or so earlier that irrational behaviour is very much in the blood of venture capital, which explains how we had WeWork and Uber in the 2010s which is where The Power Law finishes its tale. The funny thing about the irrational behaviour is that both the dot com era and the 2010s Softbank appear to have been an accelerant with their late stage momentum approach to venture capital deals which blew valuations on businesses up far beyond what would be reasonably expected otherwise. Softbank gave birth to ‘growth equity’ as a business model that took in many existing and new VC businesses including Russian Israeli Yuri Milner and his DST Ventures business which invested in Facebook, Stripe and GroupOn.

    Paul Graham and Peter Thiel

    Paul Graham was a founder of an ad tech business who then moved over to investing and had a reputation for warning startup founders about the nature of VC funding. It fitted neatly into the ‘John Gaunt’ type narrative that played well with some of his peers like Peter Thiel. The impact of these people setting an ideological agenda of sorts for Silicon Valley founders, together with a plethora of other founders providing seed capital to businesses from Google onwards greatly impacted the freedom of VCs to operate using their previous models and left the industry open for the Softbanks of the world to inflate everything.

    China off-note

    The Power Law offers a largely truimphantist view of the role of VCs such as Sequoia Capital in China. However, this seems to ignore the impact of Chinese VC and angel investors. It also chooses to ignore the negative impact of Xi Jingping.

    Conclusion

    Mallaby illuminates part of Silicon Valley history that I wasn’t familiar with, in particular VCs strategic role in steering technological change during the 1990s. Time has somewhat outpaced the book. The rise of Xi Jingping and the change in attitude towards safety and innovation amongst young Chinese is likely to make the China section look overly optimistic. The end of easy money, at least for the time being will impact the VC industry globally and growth equity looks like a folly during the present time. But if you want to understand how things were The Power Law is the ideal book for you.

  • Lost luggage & more things

    Lost luggage

    Qantas chaos: outsourced baggage handler says one in 10 bags not making flights | Qantas | The Guardian – this lost luggage mess is emblematic of what is happening globally. Delta Airlines put on a dedicated flight to repatriate 1,000 pieces of lost luggage that had been left behind in in London Heathrow airport. Lost luggage and other overwhelmed ground services has seen both Heathrow and Schiphol airport in Amsterdam cut flight numbers. Lost luggage will tarnish airline reputations.

    Rimowa pilots case as carry on luggage

    A poor experience on lost luggage will give discount airlines an opening, given that they will be supporting fuel related price increases anyway. These lost luggage problems will also help rail companies. I could see Eurostar running some ‘lost luggage’ response ads as a way of putting pressure on British Airways

    China

    Chinese nationalists celebrate Shinzo Abe shooting online, as some argue feeling happy is the normal reaction | South China Morning Post – you also had restaurants and other businesses rolling out special offers including 8.8 RMB discounts to celebrate Shinzo Abe’s death. It was interesting that this outpouring wasn’t censored and the stores not visited indicating Chinese government support for this ‘Chinazi‘ hatred

    China hotpot chain Haidilao spins off overseas unit | Financial Times – basically a hedge against China’s ongoing anti-COVID measures

    Consumer behaviour

    We weren’t meant to see this many beautiful faces – The Face – beauty overstimulation effect of Instagram culture

    Chinese consumer boycotts of foreign companies, 2008–2021 – basically they’re primed to behave like assholes

    As Netflix pivots, American attitudes shift to owning digital assets, not just streaming them | TechCrunch 

    Economics

    China’s image loses its shine in Europe | Financial Times – In the UK, Germany and France, only 14 per cent, 33 per cent and 41 per cent of people questioned in 2006 had an unfavourable view of China. Now, they stand at 69 per cent, 74 per cent and 68 per cent respectively. – its human rights, then military power, then economics and finally Chinese political interference. Central and eastern European’s governments joined hands with Beijing in launching an initiative known as the 16+1 format. It was meant to herald a new dawn of mutually beneficial co-operation. China managed to alienate all with the exception of Hungary and Serbia. The Chinese ignored the region fears of Russia and strong attachment to the US as the ultimate guarantor of each country’s independence – likely because of China’s laser focus on the US as its enemy. Serbia makes sense, Russia backed them during the break-up of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia wasn’t ‘freed’ by the Soviet Union from Nazi occupation and Tito managed to maintain a distance from them. Hungary is the one that is more puzzling my perspective; the people were crushed in 1956 by Russian tanks when they tried to move away from communism

    The UK economy is stagnant — and the reasons run deep | Financial Times – the 15 years between 2004 and 2019 — pre-Covid and pre-Brexit — were the weakest for growth in gross domestic product per head since the years between 1919 and 1934. Low growth in GDP per head caused low growth in household real disposable incomes: those for non-pensioners rose by 12 per cent between 2004-05 and 2019-20. This can be compared to an average rise of 40 per cent every 15 years since 1961. Also significant have been changes in income distribution. Between 1980 and 1995, median non-pensioner household real disposable incomes rose by 37 per cent, but by 67 per cent for the top decile and only 3 per cent for the bottom one. Between 1992 and 2007, incomes rose by 41 per cent, 47 per cent and 37 per cent, respectively: growth then was both fast and widely shared, which was surely far better. But then, between 2004 and 2019, as median incomes rose by a mere 12 per cent, the top decile’s rose 11 per cent and the bottom’s 2 per cent: that was stagnation all round

    Trade War – by Dexter Roberts

    Finance

    Tymbals : What can Bitcoin teach us about marketing 

    Hong Kong

    ‘Hong Kong police’ threaten UK barristers of jailed tycoon Jimmy Lai | News | The Times – likely to be deniable middle men working on behalf of the government. You had similar middle men used to threaten, intimidate and assault the likes of journalists in the past. See also My testimony today about Hong Kong to the US Congressional-Executive Committee on China – the commentary of NSL related practices being used on non-NSL related charges is very interesting, showing a corrosion of the judiciary

    Hong Kong’s legacy — from Chris Patten’s Diaries to City on the Edge | Financial Times – Patten argues convincingly that for Britain or any other country to abandon liberal principles and yield to the Chinese Communist party’s demands at every opportunity brings neither political nor commercial benefits. The trade and investment statistics he cites from the final decades of British rule do indeed suggest there is little correlation between grovelling and real rewards for business & … “China’s decision [in 2020] to impose the national security law as a pre-emptive strike against a perceived revolutionary situation in Hong Kong amounts to the premature end of ‘One Country, Two Systems’ [the formula for autonomy] 27 years before the 2047 deadline,” Hung writes. “The cost of this move for China could be grave,” he concludes, at a time when the US is already seeking to curb Beijing’s technological and strategic ambitions and China still benefits from Hong Kong’s role as an internationally connected financial centre.

    Hong Kong IPOs: lithium giant’s disappointing listing spells trouble | Financial Times – if this isn’t a one-off then it asks big questions around Hong Kong’s ability to bring foreign capital into China. The lithium company is trading at a 60 precent discount to its price on the Shenzhen stock exchange

    Ideas

    Thinking About the Unthinkable in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs – with back-and-forth tactical nuclear shots is that Russia would be at an advantage because it possesses more tactical nuclear weapons than the United States does. That asymmetry would require U.S. policymakers to resort sooner to so-called strategic forces (intercontinental missiles or bombers) to keep the upper hand. That, in turn, would risk unleashing the all-out mutual destruction of the major powers’ homelands. Thus, both the tit-for-tat and the disproportionate retaliatory options pose dauntingly high risks. A less dangerous option would be to respond to a nuclear attack by launching an air campaign with conventional munitions alone against Russian military targets and mobilizing ground forces for potential deployment into the battle in Ukraine. This would be coupled with two strong public declarations. First, to dampen views of this low-level option as weak, NATO policymakers would emphasize that modern precision technology makes tactical nuclear weapons unnecessary for effectively striking targets that used to be considered vulnerable only to undiscriminating weapons of mass destruction. That would frame Russia’s resort to nuclear strikes as further evidence not only of its barbarism but of its military backwardness. Direct entry into the war at the conventional level would not neutralize panic in the West. But it would mean that Russia would be faced with the prospect of combat against a NATO that was substantially superior in nonnuclear forces, backed by a nuclear retaliatory capability, and less likely to remain restrained if Russia turned its nuclear strikes against U.S. rather than Ukrainian forces.

    Innovation

    €5.5m for 50 qubit photonic quantum computer – eeNews Europe

    Switzerland Moves Ahead With Underground Autonomous Cargo Delivery – IEEE Spectrum 

    IBM Announces Novel Advancement in 3D Wafer Stacking – ExtremeTech

    Japan

    Abe Shinzo: A retrospective – by Noah Smith – Noahpinion

    Marketing

    Ritson: ‘Most scary and remarkable bit of data I’ve ever seen’ – brands, marketers wasting 25% of budgets on loose and lazy briefs, remain delusional on how good they are | Mi3

    Media

    Leaked Videos Show Disney Is the Biggest Ad Tech Giant You’ve Never Heard Of – extremely off-brand usage of Disney characters by its advertising sales team

    Why more advertisers will see Amazon as a brand builder – The Media Leader 

    Why the Elizabeth line marks a new era for OOH design – The Media Leader – better integration into the built environment

    Hollywood won’t budge for Chinese censors anymore. Here’s what changed – CNN – talent in the Chinese industry had become stronger. Local stories told “in Mandarin and portrayed with Chinese sensibilities … naturally appeal to local audiences, particularly as you move from urban to rural markets,” he noted. “As Chinese producers venture further into the action and sci-fi genres in particular, where Hollywood dominated for many years, there will likely be increased competition from local fare.” – the pandering of Hollywood to the Chinese government has created a sector that will likely attempt to bury the US film industry

    A new study points out the biggest threat to the potential of TikTok as it lacks massive earnings for creators compared to rivals / Digital Information World and Nearly Half of Gen Z Prefers TikTok and Instagram Over Google Search – according to Google’s internal studies, “something like almost 40% of young people when they’re looking for a place for lunch, they don’t go to Google Maps or Search, they go to TikTok or Instagram.” Google confirmed this statistic to Insider, saying, “we face robust competition from an array of sources, including general and specialized search engines, as well as dedicated apps.” Google highlighted changes it plans to make to its search engine to appeal to a younger audience, including the ability for a user to pan their camera over an area and “instantly glean insights about multiple objects in a wider scene.” Insider has previously reported about the threat TikTok poses to YouTube, which is also owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet. Insider Intelligence predicts TikTok’s advertising revenue will overtake YouTube by 2024. – which makes the TikTok shopping TV service shutdown a bit more puzzling

    Why the Overturning of Roe v. Wade Threatens the Adult Industry — Free Speech Coalition 

    Online

    Meta Is Launching Lawsuits Against Groups That Are Exposing User Data From Facebook and Instagram / Digital Information World 

    Indian farmers streamed fake pro cricket matches to Russian bettors for two weeks – The Verge 

    Security

    US and UK intelligence chiefs call for vigilance on China’s industrial spies | Financial Times – In a joint appearance in London, the chiefs of the US and British intelligence agencies called on companies to be much more vigilant about China. FBI director Christopher Wray said Beijing was using “elaborate shell games” to disguise its spying and was even taking advantage of Spacs, or special purpose acquisition vehicles. “The Chinese government poses an even more serious threat to western businesses than even many sophisticated businesspeople realise,” Wray told business leaders at an event with his MI5 counterpart, Ken McCallum. “I want to encourage you to take the long view as you gauge the threat.” In a reference to the Ministry of State Security and the People’s Liberation Army, Wray added: “When you deal with a Chinese company, know you’re also dealing with the Chinese government — that is the MSS and the PLA — too, almost like silent partners – that this is news to business leaders shows how naive they all are. Based on my experience I believe that the reality is that the business community is already state captured, culpable and willing to endanger their home countries for marginal short term gain. More here: Joint address by MI5 and FBI Heads | MI5 – The Security Service and NEW: Top UK and USA spy chiefs warning on CCP 

    TikTok’s data dilemma – by Casey Newton – Platformer – are we really surprised that TikTok is handing over data to the Chinese security services?

    How Conti ransomware group crippled Costa Rica — then fell apart | Financial Times 

    Taiwan

    China’s Sand Dredgers Run Gray Zone Warfare in Taiwan 

    Web of no web

    Consumer Spending In The Metaverse: Why Might People Spend More? – GWI