Category: web of no web | 無處不在的技術 | 보급 기술 | 普及したテクノロジー

The web of no web came out of a course that I taught at the La Salle School of Business at the University Ramon Llull in Barcelona on interactive media to a bunch of Spanish executive MBA students. The university wanted an expert from industry and they happened to find me by happenstance. I remember contact was made via LinkedIn.

I spent a couple of weeks putting together a course. But I didn’t find material that covered many of things that I thought were important and happening around us. They had been percolating around the back of my mind at the time as I saw connections between a number of technologies that were fostering a new direction. Terms like web 2.0 and where 2.0 covered contributing factors, but were too silo-ed

So far people’s online experience had been mediated through a web browser or an email client. But that was changing, VR wasn’t successful at the time but it was interesting. More importantly the real world and the online world were coming together. We had:

  • Mobile connectivity and wi-fi
  • QRcodes
  • SMS to Twitter publishing at the time
  • You could phone up Google to do searches (in the US)
  • Digital integration in geocaching as a hobby
  • The Nintendo Wii controller allowed us to interact with media in new ways
  • Shazam would listen to music and tell you what song it was
  • Where 2.0: Flickr maps, Nokia maps, Yahoo!’s Fireeagle and Dopplr – integrated location with online
  • Smartphones seemed to have moved beyond business users

Charlene Li described the future of social networks as ‘being like air’, being all around us. So I wrapped up all in an idea called web of no web. I was heavily influenced by Bruce Lee’s description of jeet kune do – ‘using way as no way’ and ‘having no limitation as limitation’. That’s where the terminology that I used came from. This seemed to chime with the ideas that I was seeing and tried to capture.

  • Valley of Genius by Adam Fisher

    Valley of Genius by Adam Fisher promises to be ‘the uncensored history of Silicon Valley’ based on stories that founders and programmers told to each other. All of which begs the question how much is myth making and how much is true?

    Valley of Genius
    Valley of Genius front cover

    Getting to the truth

    Having worked for Silicon Valley clients and in-house at Yahoo!; I recognise that the truth doesn’t get out there and the myth making is largely self-serving. There is also a big question about how far the collective memory actually goes back.

    Yahoo! star

    Secondly, the story of Silicon Valley has already been told a number of times, how will Valley of Genius compare to Dealers of Lightning, The Valley of Heart’s Delight, Where Wizards Stay Up Late or Accidental Empires in terms of telling the story of Silicon Valley?

    Finally, there is the challenge of how big tech companies have got so good at controlling their story in the wider world. Whether it was keeping close tabs on journalists like Fred Vogelstein found out while working at Wired magazine, through Frank X Shaw’s reputation for robust rebuttal, funded their own media outlets like Pando Daily and eventually disintermediated the media altogether.

    Adam Fisher

    Adam Fisher grew up in the Bay Area and became a journalist and later editor at Wired. He left there and freelanced for a number of publications, branching out from technology writing to other areas like travel and tourism.

    Style

    The most noticeable thing about Valley of Genius when you get into it is that there is no prose. It is all dialogue. Fisher has cut together segments of interviews to tell a story. Sometimes it feels like people around a table, other times it feels more disjointed.

    The book is described as an oral history and Fisher in his interviews describes the process as being like putting together documentary interviews.

    Fisher went out and interviewed many of the great and the good of Silicon Valley to get this material, however given some of the soundbites were things I had heard before such as Steve Jobs talking about a computer as a ‘bicycle of the mind’; I was not sure if these people like to self reference or if Fisher has interspersed his interviews with archival material. Right at the end of the book, Fisher comes a list of people by chapter and where he had to source secondhand quotes from.

    I’ve read a number of books on Silicon Valley over the years, so had a frame of reference and I had context, so I found Valley of Genius enjoyable to read. But for someone who is coming to the subject with just a cursory knowledge of Silicon Valley, there is benefits to having a guide. Reading the quotes without understanding the context, or having been to Silicon Valley still leaves you outside.

    I honestly don’t know if Fisher would have been a good guide, so him removing his voice from the book maybe less of a loss than we might think. But a new reader to the subject matter would benefit from a guide like Michael S. Malone or the insider snark of Robert X. Cringely (aka Mark Stephens). Fisher’s book Valley of Genius is a book for insiders and future academics who might be looking at the history of Silicon Valley in the future. According to Fisher, he managed to secure the last interview that Bob Taylor ever gave. Bob Taylor played key roles in moving Silicon Valley forward while in managerial positions at NASA, ARPA and XEROX PARC. In those interview quotes are more granular aspects of things, like Nolan Bushnell having a champagne party on the grass outside the offices of a recently bankrupt competitor, or that the video card to power the monitor used in Doug Engelbart measured about 3 foot by 4 foot in size.

    It’s also a very one dimensional view of Silicon Valley. It largely misses out hardware and hard innovation; which is problematic for a technology hub that is competing against China and India for that matter. There is no 3Com, Cisco or Juniper Networks. The hardware story is very much lacking, there is no Intel, AMD or Nvidia, Sun Microsystems or SGI. It is largely a consumer technology vision that writes out businesses like Oracle and Salesforce together with the characters that lead them.

    Plot line

    Valley of Genius ignores a good deal of early Silicon Valley, such as the the pre-war nature of Stanford, Varian, Bill Hewlett and David Packard’s garage start-up, Shockley Labs, the treacherous eight, defence contracting and the missile age.

    Mother of all demos

    Instead Valley of Genius history starts at 1968, when Dough Engelbart of Stanford Research Institute provides the Mother of all Demos to a mix of academics, government people from the likes of the department of defense and technologists.

    Engelbart talks about his developments in 1986

    He the talked about his career on the Google campus in 2007.

    Atari

    The story moves on to Atari and Nolan Bushnell. Bushnell was responsible for popularising computer games and arcade consoles. Bushnell was a bridge between the counter culture and Silicon Valley hustle. A few chapters later Valley of Genius also covers the acquisition and eventual (first) failure of Atari.

    Here’s Bushnell being interviewed for the 50th anniversary of Atari by IGN.

    Bushnell did a Google Talk a number of years ago as well.

    Xerox PARC

    PARC (Palo Alto Research Center) was a west coast R&D facility put together by Xerox to understand what the future of work would look like. They had already realised that it would be computerised. From PARC came modern computers, local area networks, file servers, laser printers and productivity software.

    Apple

    In separate chapters Valley of Genius covers Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak’s commercialisation of phone hacking tools, and the evolution of the Apple computer line up from the Apple II to the Macintosh.

    Retailer High Technology did the first adverts featuring the Apple II computer

    Which was a far more budget affair than Apple’s own launch of the Machintosh.

    The book goes on to cover the return of CEO Steve Jobs and the rejuvenation of Apple as a business including the iPod, iPhone and iPad through to the death of Jobs.

    The hacker ethic, or hacker culture

    The hacker ethic or culture, a digital equivalent of the person who tinkers away with things in a shed or garage has their own section. The section is atemporal in nature, which I can understand to a certain extent. Steve Wozniak came out of hacker culture, as have many software developers over time.

    Fisher focuses on what hacker culture is, rather than what it means (both good and bad). I would recommend Steven Levy’s Hackers: Heroes of the computer revolution as a companion to this chapter in Valley of Genius. The copy I read years ago was published by Penguin, but O’Reilly have re-published it as the book this is part of myth-making and cultural norming in software development teams.

    The WeLL

    The WeLL was the proto-online community that is still going and features first generation digerati such as journalist Wendy Grossman, the founders of Wired magazine and cyberpunk author Bruce Sterling.

    Stewart Brand talked about the founding of The WeLL during a Google hosted talk

    The WeLL never scaled in the same way that we think about social networks now but it has quality discussions and is much kinder than Twitter or Reddit.

    VPL

    VPL was a failed start-up in the mid-1990s that set much of the expectations and tempo on VR to this day. You will most likely know it from the VR suit featured in The Lawnmower Man movie. I covered it in more depth in my metaverse discussion paper.

    General Magic

    Take a series of burnt out Apple employees and have them invent a predecessor of the net appliance or smartphone. That was General Magic and it was a glorious failure. Sarah Kerruish’s documentary on General Magic tells the story much better.

    Wired magazine

    Wired magazine gets its own chapter. it represented a way of melding culture and technology. I had read Wired before I had used the web, but it gave me a good idea of what to expect. But I don’t know if it is more important than ZDnet or other technology publishing houses. Valley of Genius goes on to celebrate Wired’s online endeavours including HotWired, Suck – a sarcastic version of Wired and Webmonkey – which taught a lot of people web development skills and probably doesn’t get the love it deserves in Valley of Genius. Mondo 2000, a rival to Wired in terms of setting the cultural zeitgeist for technologists also gets a chapter.

    Pixar

    Pixar as a Silicon Valley story is an accident due to two things

    • George Lucas’ Industrial Light & Magic being based in North California rather than in Los Angeles
    • Steve Jobs looking for a project post-Apple

    But it didn’t necessarily move Silicon Valley forward.

    Netscape

    The jump to Netscape as the first commercial browser makes sense. AOL, AT&T True Experience, CompuServe and Prodigy services were all driven by businesses outside the traditional Silicon Valley space.

    Bob Cringely, from what I guess was PBS’ Triumph of The Nerds

    At the time Netscape seemed as much about the crazy public valuation of the business which was emblematic of the dot com boom, as it was about the software that would kick off the open web. These kind of valuations re-emerged with businesses like Uber and WeWork.

    eBay

    eBay was the standout e-commerce play for Silicon Valley. Amazon was a Seattle company and so was an outsider in a similar way that Microsoft always had been. eBay was also founded by an ex-General Magic employee and so was part of Silicon Valley’s version of ‘Rock family trees‘. We see this even now with the ‘PayPal mafia’.

    Google

    Google changed the web experience that Silicon Valley had pioneered via Yahoo! and Excite. Brin and Page became a key point of focus in Valley of Genius. However, this ignores the complexity both around search and the development of foundational web technologies that other companies produced. If you are interested about the nature and history of Google, Steven Levy’s In The Plex is probably a better option to read.

    Google’s move to pay per click advertising gets its own chapter that greatly reduces the complexity of the real story.

    Napster

    Napster was the poster child of market value destruction and disruption that predated Uber and its ilk.

    Dot bomb

    The dot com boom can be charted from the last quarter of 1995 and reached its nadir in the last quarter of 2002.

    Eric Steiner tells his tale as the CEO of Inktomi through the dot com boom and bust

    Valley of Genius covers it in terms of its sociological impact on the Bay Area, as much as its economic impact. The reality is more complex, even the dot.com label attached to it is a misnomer. It encompassed telecoms, networking hardware, datacenters and more in terms of its impact rather than just e-businesses.

    Facebook

    While Facebook was an east coast invention, the movement of the company and its CEO Mark Zuckerberg west saw a cultural change in Silicon Valley that took it down a much darker patch. By comparison Twitter in its start-up phase looked more like Atari in terms of its counterculture influence.

    Future gazing

    At the end of the book there is a section on future gazing, which became what made Silicon Valley great. The business model was prioritised over innovation. Veteran journalist John Markoff even talked about how Salesforce had moved to a ‘vertical campus’ model with Salesforce tower. Which is how every other business in places like Singapore, Hong Kong and even Wall Street work anyway.

    There was a singular lack of reflection on challenges ahead or areas of introspection by the people telling these stories. If anything, that was what concerned me the most about the book. Innovation is at a technological, scientific and socio-cultural cross-roads and the inhabitants of the Valley of Genius apparently doesn’t have a clue. More on the book here. You can find more of my book reviews here.

    Extra content – Valley of Genius promotional tour interviews

    Panel hosted by Adam Fisher to promote the Valley of Genius book

    Leo LePort interviews Fisher on Valley of Genius at the time of its launch.

  • Uninsurable hacks + more things

    Uninsurable hacks

    As cybercrime has become more common there has been a move towards the incidents becoming uninsurable hacks in nature. 2022 looks like a watershed moment in the move to uninsurable hacks.

    Lloyd’s of London defends cyber insurance exclusion for state-backed attacks | Financial Times – Lloyds of London were looking at state backed exclusions. The parallel between a state backed cyber attack and and an act of war have clear parallels from an insurance point of view. An act of war would be exempt from most insurance policy cover. A state backed cyber attack then becomes an uninsurable attack. However, while a business could expect government retribution and likely support in an act of war, the uninsurable hack exists in a grey zone just below the threshold of government response.

    The closest thing that has happened was criminal charges filed against Park Jin Hyok for the Wannacry ransomware that affected the NHS, Bangladesh Central Bank theft and the Sony Pictures hack. Russia has attempted attacks against at an oil refinery in at least one NATO country likely due to the material support that Ukraine has been receiving. NATO isn’t in a state of war with Russia and there are likely to be few repercussions and deterrents. Chinese backed hackers dismantled Nortel and helped drive the business into bankruptcy. These would all be uninsurable hacks as the risk is unmanageable in nature.

    North Korea presents a particular type of risk for uninsurable hacks, using cyber crime to finance its sanction hit economy.

    Companies like NSO and service companies based in India have democratised sophisticated intrusions for legal firms and business purposes. Widening the risk even further and creating a shadow economy of such scale that it creates uninsurable hacks by his own nature. Some of these law firms may even work with insurance companies in other areas; indicating the kind of perverse business incentives that drive these uninsurable hacks.

    The final aspect ushering in uninsurable hacks is one of scale. Due to the economics of digital business – criminal or otherwise; they scale in a non-linear fashion. Insurance insiders see these as uninsurable attacks as they are ‘civilisation level’ attacks. Uninsurable hacks also come from an inability of the insurance industry to absorb pay-outs on a massive scale. But what can be done about uninsurable hacks since Pandora’s box has been opened?

    Business

    This story how Balkan organised crime groups completely compromised MSC is stunning for its audacity and impact.

    China

    Chinese business confidence falls to lowest in a decade | RTÉ 

    China to step up support for local chipmakers – supported businesses include NAND flash memory maker Yangtze Memory Technology (YMTC) and AI chip developer Cambricon Technologies

    Notebook component makers see large absences at China plants due to COVID – some notebook supply chain companies in China have seen infections in their plants affect up to 50% of their workers, resulting in the temporary shutdown of production lines

    China’s Bureaucratic Slack: Material Inducements and Decision-Making Risks among Chinese Local Cadres | The China Journal – We find bureaucratic slack among lower-ranked cadres to be caused mainly by the lack of material inducements, while higher-ranked officials are more discouraged by increased risks

    Mao and markets – great talk on the permeable membrane between communist thought and capitalism.

    China Makes Moves in Middle East After Biden’s Frosty Reception – An eagerness to offer “Chinese wisdom” to the Middle East’s problems is symbolic of Xi’s decade in power, during which time he has thrown off the humble shackles of his predecessors to raise his country’s stature on the international stage. Welcome or not, his offer signals to China’s domestic audience Beijing’s growing influence abroad and its capacity to advise others on successful governance. However, China’s exact role in realizing its peacekeeping recipe remains unclear. A frequent critic of U.S. military intervention in the Middle East and elsewhere, Beijing knows all too well the political, economic and military costs of becoming involved. Its willingness to do so is also a matter of constant debate. “China is cautiously increasing its presence in the Middle East, driven more by Middle Eastern states than its own ambitions,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “China sees the Middle East as volatile and an area still dominated by the United States. They are cautious about getting sucked into the region’s conflicts.”

    Consumer behaviour

    Why the U.S. middle class is feeling squeezed | Noahpinion 

    Fascinating talk by Scott Galloway

    Culture

    Mr Tape used custom modified reel-to-reel tape recorders. The reason why he can handle the reels is that its actually the tape capstans rather than the reels that are powered on a tape machine. So very different to how a cassette tape recorder works.

    Henry Cavill on his love for Warhammer 40K. He is seriously invested in the universe.

    Design

    Shedding some light on “dark patterns” and advertising regulation – ASA | CAP 

    Economics

    Making Products in America Means Stuff Will Be More Expensive | Business Insider – cost is less clear when one takes into account carbon tax. It is also worthwhile thinking about how this could drive an improvement in product quality as well as production moves away from China. Improved quality could help reduce consumption and improve environmental impact

    Ethics

    The Camp Fix: Infrastructural Power and the “Re-education Labour Regime” in Turkic Muslim Industrial Parks in North-west China | The China Quarterly | Cambridge CoreDrawing on worker interviews, government documents, industry materials and images this article shows that for-profit public-private industrial parks have been built as part of a “camp fix” mechanism centred on detaining and “re-educating” Uyghurs and Kazakhs at the periphery of the nation. It argues that these industrial parks concentrate forms of repressive assistance and “dormitory labour regimes” that operate at other frontiers of Chinese state power and point these strategies of disempowerment towards a seemingly permanent, ethno-racialized underclass, producing a “re-education labour regime.” It further argues that the material infrastructures of these surveiled and policed spaces themselves are productive in enforcing the goals of the “camp fix”: the creation of high-quality, underpaid, docile and non-religious Muslim workers who are controlled through the built environment – this is the environment that large corporates have used in their supply chain. Companies such as VW Group and Anta (aka Salomon, Arc’teryx etc)

    Finance

    Scott Galloway breaks down a number of financial stories from 2022.

    FMCG

    Starbucks Sales Forecast to Decline Due to Customer Cuts in Add-Ons 

    Hong Kong

    Visual Framing: The Use of COVID-19 in the Mobilization of Hong Kong Protest | The China Quarterly | Cambridge Coremessages and images posted on Lennon Walls between January and April 2020 have used COVID-19 to extend public expression of sentiment on the debates around the Hong Kong government and to further mobilize a sense of Hong Kong identity against China. The findings contribute to the understandings of how the cultural politics surrounding the pandemic became a collective action frame in the mobilization of a localized Hong Kong political identity against the Hong Kong and Chinese governments – this linking of COVID-19 to political discourse makes public health communications much more complex

    Hong Kong property: developers mourn demise of ‘coffin homes’ boom | Financial TimesAnalysts, including Goldman Sachs, expect Hong Kong home prices to drop by 30 per cent by the end of next year. Shares of CK Asset and Henderson Land have fallen about a tenth in the past six months. The latter trades at 10 times forward earnings, which is more than 40 per cent lower than even 2014 levels — during the last property market decline — reflecting the dire outlook. – add into this also the amount of Hong Kongers leaving the city as well

    Indonesia

    Indonesia’s foreign retirees fear being driven out as new visa scheme targets ‘filthy rich’ | South China Morning Post 

    In Indonesia, ‘all-gendered’ priests are fighting to keep their traditions alive | South China Morning PostWith fewer than 40 Bissu remaining in areas across South Sulawesi, a community which once held divine status is now fighting against extinction. Many Bissu were accused of violating Islamic principles and faced persecution, but some are trying to preserve their heritage by performing cultural, shaman-like roles – the implicit influence of gulf Arab style muslim beliefs is not only about extremism but presenting a dead orthodoxy that will make Indonesia as unattractive as Malaysia has become

    Innovation

    Chipmaker TSMC in talks with suppliers over first European plant | Financial Times – it will take a while for TSMC to get a European project under way

    Ireland

    This is fascinating, it shows how Irish consumers have become much more sophisticated in the 50 years that Ireland has been in the European Union.

    Japan

    Sapporo, Japan Olympic Committee hit pause on Winter Games bid -Kyodo | Reuters – the scandal that encompassed Japan could be a good thing on balance as it allows Japan to press pause on a Winter Olympics bid. The IOC is more hassle than its worth for Japan. Japan already has a great reputation

    Korea

    Jinni’s shock departure from new K-pop group NMixx, just three days after its Loewe fashion campaign launched and within a year of debuting – | South China Morning Post – girl group seems to have been formed to become brand ambassadors for a luxury brand. Much of the money is in sponsorship but usually its mainstream brands like LG, Samsung, G-Shock etc

    Luxury

    From meme fashion to gamified drops: The top consumer trends of 2022 | Vogue Business 

    Rolex Sales: Pricey Luxury Swiss Watch Exports Jump to Record High on US Demand – Bloomberg – Americans snap up pricey timepieces, lifting exports by 33%. Retailers in Qatar stocked up ahead of the football World Cup

    From meme fashion to gamified drops: The top consumer trends of 2022 | Vogue Business 

    Media

    Google agrees NFL streaming deal as Big Tech chases sports rights | Financial Times 

    Online

    Legal basis for removing inaccurate Hong Kong anthem results from Google, John Lee says citing tech giant’s policy – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP 

    Read Zuckerberg’s 2019 Deposition on Facebook User Data | Business InsiderA 2017 report in The New York Times had said Cambridge Analytica previously claimed it could use data to glean voters’ inclinations. Zuckerberg appeared to address those types of news reports in his testimony to SEC regulators, saying it piqued his interest about how the company might have been using Facebook at the time.  “I kind of remember having this reaction to this, which is, if they are using our systems for advertising, then I’m curious to understand if they’re actually doing anything novel that matches the rhetoric that they have, or if they’re just kind of puffing up rhetoric around what would be a relatively standard use of our ad systems,” he told the SEC in 2019, according to the newly released testimony. – to be fair Zuckerberg’s reaction reminds me of a lot of discussions that I was having with peers about Cambridge Analytica at the time

    Netflix password sharing may be illegal – British government warns – Nadine Dorries has already confessed at sharing a password. I think we need a strong a approach to law enforcement and use her as a demonstration case. I think 10 years inside should do it ;-)

    Retailing

    Amazon hit by ECJ ruling on online sale of counterfeit goods | Financial Times 

    Security

    Why everyone needs a dedicated GPS device. TL;DR don’t rely on wireless networks

    How This Bombardier Challenger 650 Jet Became a High-Tech Spy Plane – Robb Report – interesting that this appearing in luxury publication Robb Report

    How SpaceX’s Starlink terminals first arrived in Ukraine | QuartzWeeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, the US began scrambling to find satellite communications equipment that could keep the Ukrainian government connected to the rest of the world, new documents reveal. Those efforts resulted in thousands of satellite-antenna terminals that connect to SpaceX’s Starlink broadband internet network being sent to Ukraine. They have proven vital to Ukraine’s war effort, but became a source of controversy for both SpaceX and the US over the service’s cost, and who is paying for it. Government contractor DAI began searching for the right equipment as early as Feb. 11, according to documents Quartz obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request. Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, shocking many, but not the US government, which sounded the alarm ahead of the invasion

    TikTok admits tracking FT journalist in leaks investigation | Financial TimesByteDance, the Chinese owner of viral social media platform TikTok, has admitted it inappropriately obtained the data of users, including a Financial Times journalist, in order to analyse their location as part of an internal leaks investigation. Over the summer, four employees on the ByteDance internal audit team looked into the sharing of internal information to journalists. Two members of staff in the US and two in China gained access to the IP addresses and other personal data of FT journalist Cristina Criddle, to work out if she was in the proximity of any ByteDance employees

    Software

    How Amazon Uses AI To Automate Work In Its Corporate HeadquartersI was struck by how deeply artificial intelligence was already ingrained in their cultures. With in-house AI research labs that rank among the globe’s best, the tech giants were automating wide swaths of their operations and changing the nature of work within their companies. This commitment to AI in the workplace is newly relevant as powerful tools like Dall-E, ChatGPT, and their ilk make their way into the public’s hands. As access to this powerful technology spreads, nearly all companies will soon have tools like those I saw inside Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft. So work inside our companies will change as well

    Taiwan

    Foxconn to sell stake in Tsinghua Unigroup, faces fine | EE Times 

    Technology

    Asianometry does a run down of Sun Microsystems history. A few things. When I started working agency side, this was what our client websites were hosted on. Sun had a partnership with Netscape to have a great software stack. Oracle’s hardware business is the old Sun Microsystems business. Cisco routers and other manufacturers as well were basically a Sun motherboard and a raft of ethernet ports together with a look-up database that handled the routing.

    Revenge of reality: how technology was discounted in 2022 | Financial Times 

    Vietnam

    Vietnam loses 25 ancient books related to culture and sovereign territory — Radio Free Asiaone of which is “relevant to Vietnam’s sovereign territory,” according to the deputy head of the literature department, Nguyen Xuan Dien. Posting on his Facebook page on Tuesday, a day after the institute’s annual meeting, Dien said the books were “extremely important for national culture.”The institute said Wednesday the books were among 35,000 volumes it had cataloged and preserved at the request of the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences When it inspected the inventory in April 2020, for the first time in over 10 years, it discovered that 29 books were missing. Four of the books were later found on the wrong shelves. Among the books still unaccounted for are four written by scientist Le Quy Don and two books which record the precise geography, boundaries and borders related to Vietnam’s sovereign territory, according to Dien. Those two volumes could help substantiate Vietnam’s territorial claims in the South China Sea – I would guess that these books have been incinerated in China, as it helps China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and debilitates Vietnam’s rival claims

    Web of no web

    How successful are Roblox branded experiences? – Peter Gasston – low continued engagement

  • ChatGPT + more things

    ChatGPT

    The buzz in part of our office about Midjourney has subsided to be replaced by buzz about ChatGPT, rather than Christmas. ChatGPT is is a software application used to conduct an on-line chat conversation via text. ChatGPT was considered to be a superior example of a chatbot down to the power of machine learning used in creating the content.

    I was curious about how good ChatGPT actually was given the following commentary from The Verge:

    The primary problem is that while the answers which ChatGPT produces have a high rate of being incorrect, they typically look like they might be good and the answers are very easy to produce

    Vincent, J. (2 December, 2022) AI-generated answers temporarily banned on coding Q&A site Stack Overflow | The Verge

    The Verge article was interesting. Most of the places where chatbots might be needed: providing customer services, regulated industries like finance would suffer from confident, but incorrect answers being provided to customers.

    Secondly, media outlets decided that ChatGPT was a potential Google challenger, with outlets like CNBC comparing the two and equity analysts at Morgan Stanley feeling the need to come out and say that ChatGPT was not likely to replace Google.

    ChatGPT
    Sample of conversation

    Google’s innovators dilemma

    What became quickly apparent Google’s narrative about being an innovator full stop, has been threatened by ChatGPT. Google as an incumbent is now stymied by Clayton Christiansen’s Innovator’s Dilemma. Google is no longer cool, its conversation related products are seen to be behind the curve and the company is seen as being too big to out-innovate itself easily.

    So what’s ChatGPT like to use?

    I have shared a picture of some of the better responses I had from the service. I started off with a certain amount of ambition. I asked it about who it felt might win the current war in Ukraine. I found that the training set of data used to power it was finished in 2021. This was obviously done to filter out the worst of the internet from the content, getting around rather than solving problems that previous chatbots have suffered from like Microsoft’s Tay project.

    Eventually I managed to get on to safer ground for ChatGPT. It answered questions about what an AI winter was, whether fuzzy logic is a form of artificial intelligence (it is), whether Baye’s Theorem was a form of AI (it isn’t per se, but it is employed to solve some AI problems there similar to the kind of uncertainty challenges fuzzy logic solves.

    ChatGPT said that AI (like Bayes Theorem) could be used to provide a solution to buffer bloat – which massively increases the latency on data networks.

    I found out quantum computers could make an optimised AI more power efficient and the business expert systems popularised in large companies during the 1980s and 1990s were analogous to modern day AI systems.

    It reminded me a lot of content I had read on Summly, the mobile news app that mashed up an AI service API with news sources to summarise articles. This start-up was bought by Yahoo! a decade ago.

    In this respect, I do wonder whether ChatGPT is truly the quantum leap forward that many seem to think, or is it merely a reminder of how well understood technology can be applied in different ways?

    China

    Volkswagen’s Skoda considers withdrawing from China – media report | Reuters – Czech carmaker Skoda Auto, part of Volkswagen, is considering withdrawing from China and will make a final decision next year. The re-orientation towards India is interesting

    How China aims to avoid the curse of increased longevity & ill health – Financial Times – Partner Content by Ping An Insurance – Ping An Insurance has a health management model or concierge service as they like to position it

    Learning from the Soviet Collapse – by Jordan Schneider – China’s Marxist Leninist version of Andy Grove’s book Only The Paranoid Survive – all of which implies at weakness at the heart of the CCP; its own members…

    Defending democracy in an era of state threats – GOV.UK 

    Consumer behaviour

    Gen Z: progressive, illiberal or both? 

    Culture

    Why we’re doing this – Flickr Foundation – interesting on the future of Flickr Commons and good to see George Oates involved

    Economics

    Can India build a military strong enough to deter China? | Financial Times – I think that this is down to the lead China has in manufacturing capability and innovation as much as anything else. There is a substantial risk that India could lose many of its northern provinces in theory. In theory being the operative phrase here. Ukraine has show what’s possible with people fighting for their homes. It makes more sense for India to think about assymmetric and grey zone tactics at scale to bleed China’s financial and human lifeblood. From hacking well in advance of a conflict, to militias trained and equipped for guerrilla actions allowing for attack in depth once China crosses the threshold.

    China boosts military aid to Africa as concerns over Russia grow – Nikkei AsiaChina has kept its forces from direct engagement in crises in Africa as part of its noninterference policy, it has also taken an increasingly high profile in United Nations peacekeeping missions. It has sent more than 1,000 troops, police and specialists to oil-rich South Sudan, for example. “When Chinese interests were threatened by insurgencies in Nigeria, China issued a statement, as it still lacks the military commitment. This can, however, change in the future,” Ali said. Experts say China is more focused on economic and national security interests than on peacebuilding. Beijing prefers strategies centered on development that help to alleviate poverty and provide stable governance, but do not necessarily advance protection of individual rights and free markets. But this growth-first attitude may be counterproductive over the long term. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, China has a very close relationship with the government, but attacks in the resource-rich east of the country by a number of rebel groups pose threats to its mining interests. “Insurgencies happen as the product of social exclusion,” Nte said. “There must be a stable political climate to address economic degradation caused by the wrong policies.”

    UK economy rebounds by more than expected in October | Financial Times – the second largest contributor to growth in October was performance of the health sector in administration of vaccine boosters and flu shots, the biggest sector was construction. But construction has started to slow since then with sites halting work in November

    Globalization is Dead and No One is Listening – by Kevin Xu 

    How Putin’s technocrats saved the economy to fight a war they opposed | Financial Times – tough moral questions to be asked. However, Central Bank governor Nabiullina’s moral calculus reminds me a good deal of convicted German war criminal Albert Speer, in particular the “Speer Myth”: the perception of him as an apolitical technocrat responsible for revolutionising the German war machine. The close alliance with Iran should allow both countries to pool expertise in sanctions busting.

    Meanwhile air travel is going great guns according to airlines like Lufthansa who are bringing back their Airbus A380 jumbo jet airliners.

    Finance

    Microsoft to take 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group | Financial Times – interesting series of cloud computing deals happening that include an equity purchase

    Health

    How docs deal with tricky situations with patients or billing | Fierce Healthcare

    Gary Jones of MediMusic says his ‘greatest ambition’ is to see music prescribed on the NHS | BW Magazine 

    Hong Kong

    Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai’s sentence casts chill over relaunch, analysts say — Radio Free Asia“If you can’t say anything anyway, then you might as well locate [your office] in mainland China,” Chow said. “Using Hong Kong as a jumping-off point to the mainland is a waste of money, because rents are much more expensive than in mainland China.” – there is also the tax aspect (expats pay much more tax in Mainland China) and a transferrable currency, but otherwise the point is pretty valid

    Hong Kong security chief accuses Google of ‘double standards’ for refusing to correct national anthem search results | South China Morning Post – Hong Kong upset that Google knows the national anthem of Hong Kong is ‘Glory to Hong Kong’ – I wonder how they will use the National Security Law in this fight?

    Ideas

    Techno-optimism for 2023 – by Noah Smith – Noahpinion 

    The great disruption has only just begun | Financial Times 

    A Vibe Shift Is Coming. Will Any of Us Survive It? – In the culture, sometimes things change, and a once-dominant social wavelength starts to feel dated. Monahan, who is 35, breaks down the three vibe shifts he has survived and observed: Hipster/Indie Music (ca. 2003–9), or peak Arcade Fire, Bloc Party, high-waisted Cheap Mondays, Williamsburg, bespoke-cocktail bars; Post-Internet/Techno Revival (ca. 2010–16), or the Blood Orange era, normcore, dressing like The Matrix, Kinfolk the club, not Kinfolk the magazine; and Hypebeast/Woke (ca. 2016–20), or Drake at his Drakest, the Nike SNKRS app, sneaker flipping, virtue signaling, Donald Trump, protests not brunch

    Innovation

    Tracking How the Event Camera Is Evolving – EE Times 

    IBM Reveals Its 433 Qubit Quantum Computer – EE Times 

    Innovative ASIC CPU Drives Record-Setting Server Performance – EE Times 

    The global microchip race: Europe’s bid to catch up | Financial Times 

    Robots set their sights on a new job: sewing blue jeans | Reuters – the economics of automation are very interesting. In markets with poor productivity i.e. the UK , people are replacing automation in warehouses and the car wash

    IBM partners with Japan’s Rapidus to make advanced chips as US recruits allies to its cause in China tech war | South China Morning Post – 2nm node process

    Canon prepares to ramp nano-imprint lithography | EE Times 

    Tracking How the Event Camera Is Evolving – EE Times 

    Ireland

    Do you recognise these iconic Irish Christmas ads? or the effect of nostalgia on Irish consumers perceptions of advertising campaigns

    Japan

    Japan scraps pacifist postwar defence strategy to counter China threat | Financial Times – this is much needed, but will be huge in terms of Japanese politics and how the country sees itself

    Legal

    China preps $143 billion chip support, goes to WTO | EE Times 

    Luxury

    5 Facts About Chanel Métiers d’Art Show in Dakar | Hypebae – apparently Chanel managed to amass an armada of Toyota Land Cruisers to put all this on.

    Luxury Watch Thefts of Rolex, Patek and Other Models Are on the Rise – Robb Report – which is why you have some UK watch collectors on YouTube talk about the ‘London watch check’ and rather than showing their timepiece have a bare wrist instead

    Luxury Daily: One-second wonder: Mr. Bags x Qeelin sells out immediately – I will never get how the HSN / QVC type format works so well in Chinese luxury sector

    You’ll own nothing (besides luxury goods) and be happy | Financial Times 

    Online

    Is Snapchat+ still being subscribed by users? / Digital Information World 

    Amazon’s heroic phase is over | Amazon ChroniclesMy first theory is that capitalism doesn’t stop evolving. The evolution of the microprocessor, digital computing, the internet, the personal computer, the World Wide Web, and the tech giants that have emerged in their wake are all transforming capitalism as we experience it and the culture produced by it in ways we don’t even fully understand. These are the biggest companies in the world and the ones with the greatest impact on how we think, work, shop, and communicate. You can’t understand capitalism in the twenty-first century without understanding how technology is changing it. I think this theory is pretty uncontroversial. It’s certainly not new. My second theory is that the arc of capitalism traced by Marx and Lukács and others writing in their tradition can also be retraced on a smaller scale. Like those early modern bourgeoisie, big tech has moved from its initial chaotic and subterranean strivings, to a heroic universalist phase where it championed political and economic liberation. Now these companies are consolidating their dominance by reducing or eliminating their workforce, shifting away from consumer goods, and brokering compromises with state power.

    Taiwan considers extending TikTok ban to private sector — Radio Free Asia 

    U.S. lawmakers unveil bipartisan bid to ban China’s TikTok | Reuters – first Taiwan, now the US…

    The METAmorphosis of behavioural economics and fast data. | Human Digital 

    Security

    Recruited for Navy SEALs, many sailors wind up scraping paint | The Japan Times – is this generation snow flake, or is there something broken on SEAL unit culture? What’s not talked about in the article is unit fit and mental resilience

    Ex-U.S. pilot held in Australia faces U.S. charges over export of defence services to China | Reuters 

    Dutch chip equipment maker ASML’s CEO questions U.S. export rules on China -newspaper | Reuters 

    Fall of the house of Sergei Leontiev | Financial Times 

    This won’t help consumers trust in politicians, but the strong legal reaction might

    Web of no web

    ChinAI #206: China’s Virtual Reality Push Gets Real 

  • BSPDN + more things

    IEDM: DTCO & More than Moore – by Doug O’LaughlinThe future is about Design Technology Co-optimization (DTCO), and Backside Power Deliever Networks (BSPDN) is a huge part of the roadmaps forward post-gate-all-around. A good place to start on what exactly Backside Power Delivery Networks (BSPDN) is is my post I wrote a few months ago about the bold bets Intel is making there. The big takeaway is that BSPDN is clearly going to be inserted in the design processes, and there is a small roadmap of improvements afforded by BSPDN. But after that, BSPDN will change the design process to allow adding more features, like moving functions on to the backside of the chip. By splitting the signal and power layers, there’s a whole new set of ideas of how to design chips with the space afforded from the power layers. This is Design Technology Co-optimization (DTCO) and System Technology Co-optimization (STCO) at it’s best. BSPDN looks like it has several years of obvious scaling potential, so it will be a huge part of the incremental semiconductor process from here until 2030. It will not only improve the energy delivered to the chip, but actually shrink the cell size. Think about it like a new way to organize the room, and now we can fit more in less even though its the same room filled with the same objects. Next, the roadmap in the long term after we have fully achieved backside power contact networks means we could open up the wafer on the other side of the chip. If we are opening up the other side to be a functional signal layer, there’s a potential we can start adding backside devices to the chip! This blew my mind, and the options for stacking layer, memory, and other devices (like energy capacitors) is endless! This is huge! – BSPDN is a key part of Intel’s technology roadmap. BSPDN is a mix of process lithography and logic technology to decouple the power grid from the design.

    tsmc fab12
    TSMC fab 2 by 曾 成訓

    The proposed technique delivers power from the backside of a thinned device wafer, which allows for greater wafer sizes in terms of the amount of logic in a chip

    Business

    Jeep-Maker Stellantis Is Laying Off 1,350 Workers, Blaming EVs | Business Insider – interesting and complex picture being painted. In general, electric cars have less parts for assembly than their internal combustion engine powered equivalent cars. The costs must be coming in component costs and or research and development

    China

    Fashion factory: Mango brings production closer to home in rethink on China | Financial Times“In this debate about whether 30 years of globalisation will continue or go backwards, the most important thing for us to follow in detail is the China issue,” he said. Asked if Mango would reduce the proportion it buys from the country, Ruiz replied: “I would say yes, but we’ll be very alert to how things evolve.” Mango gains some freedom from the fact it has only six stores in mainland China and consumers there contribute little to total sales, which it predicts will this year surpass its 2019 record of €2.4bn. Other brands have already moved more decisively. The US jeans maker Levi’s and UK bootmaker Dr Martens have been reducing their sourcing from China since before the pandemic.

    Economics

    Tertiarisation like China | CEPR – which screws future growth numbers

    Energy

    ‘The Godfather, Saudi-style’: inside the palace coup that brought MBS to power | Guardian 

    Chinese battery makers set to dominate Europe’s car industry | Financial Times – not great given yet another form of dependence that’s being set up

    US scientists boost clean power hopes with fusion energy breakthrough | Financial Times – if true its a big moment. The issue is that the diagnostic measurement instruments were damaged during the ‘breakthrough

    Ethics

    Car Brand Tesla, VW, and GM Exposed to Forced Uyghur Labor: Researchers | Business Insider

    Health

    If you thought business jargon was bad . . .  | Financial Times 

    Masking could fight the ‘tripledemic’, experts say. Will anyone listen? | The Guardian 

    Hong Kong

    Innocent-sounding ‘care teams’ spark fears of heightened surveillance in Hong Kong — Radio Free Asia 

    Innovation

    Why NASA Hasn’t Put Astronauts on the Moon in 50 Years | Business Insider – politics and a lack of money, something that the Chinese space programme won’t suffer from

    Is AI Adoption Reaching a Plateau? / Digital Information World 

    Japan

    Asia’s advanced economies now have lower birth rates than Japan | The Economist – japan now has higher birth rate than China

    Online

    China’s internet darlings seek growth after zero-Covid | Financial Times 

    My Mastodon profile in case Musk manages to sink twitter

    Security

    ‘The Godfather, Saudi-style’: inside the palace coup that brought MBS to power | Guardian – this sounds like a Tom Clancy novel

    Tools

    Cheap Books! – a meta search engine for books

    Web of no web

    Forty Years After ‘Tron,’ Storytellers Are Moving onto the Metaverse – Variety 

  • Tectonic shift + more stuff

    Tectonic shift

    The heat from radioactive processes within the planet’s interior causes the plates to move, sometimes toward and sometimes away from each other. This movement is called plate motion, or tectonic shift

    National Ocean Service of the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    Zeitenwende

    Olaf Scholz, Hamburg weiter vorn.
    Olaf Scholz, Hamburg weiter vorn.

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declaration of a zeitenwende or epochal tectonic shift following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Part of this tectonic shift is Germany’s desire to become a security guarantor in Europe. A lot of coverage has focused on how far away Germany is from this aspiration in terms of military preparedness and over-reliance on the very countries likely to threaten European security.

    In an opinion piece Chancellor Scholz asked a rhetorical question

    How can we, as Europeans and as the European Union, remain independent actors in an increasingly multipolar world? 

    Scholz, O. (December 2022) “The Global Zeitenwende. How to Avoid a New Cold War in a Multipolar Era“. Foreign Affairs. United States

    Scholz implies that the tectonic shift also adversely affects the United States efforts to jumpstart green industries and contain a globally more aggressive China. One could argue that Scholz’s approach is business as usual. For decades, large German enterprises have encouraged the government to work with authoritarian regimes, creating a Germany highly dependent on bad actors.

    China

    UK council rejects China’s plan to build new embassy in London – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – a few things went wrong here:

    • China went after elites, but ignored the British public’s dim view of them and councillors who would be much more sensitive to Xinjiang problems
    • The Manchester consulate incident damaged China more than they realised
    • China isn’t likely to make profit on the site that they own any time soon

    HSBC chief denies Beijing is behind Ping An push to split bank | Financial Times – that’s about as reassuring as the football club chairman saying that he’s got every confidence in the player manager after a string of home match losses

    Finance

    Credit cards as a legacy system – complaints about credit cards. The problem these arguments have is that credit cards work

    Ideas

    My cyberpunk city, my cyberpunk world – by Noah Smith – I read this and thought about my own experiences of Hong Kong

    Indonesia

    Indonesia set to penalise sex outside marriage in overhaul of criminal code | Reutersthe new code could be passed by as early as next week. The code, if passed, would apply to Indonesian citizens and foreigners alike, with business groups expressing concern about what damage the rules might have on Indonesia’s image as a holiday and investment destination. – the question is if this is going to take Indonesia on a similar path of economic stagnation as Malaysia has taken?

    Innovation

    Air Force Unveils New B-21 Stealth Bomber After Seven Years in the Making – Defense One 

    Luxury

    Watchfinder Expands Pre-Owned Business with Third-Party Sellers – Robb Report and even Rolex is going into CPO market: Rolex’s Certified Pre-Owned Watch Program: What You Need to Know | Gear Patrol – allowing it to profit on the secondary market boom

    Can NFT-based private clubs disrupt a centuries-old model? | Techinasia – this doesn’t even make sense

    Online

    Vietnam’s answer to Tencent, VNG, eyes overseas expansion after taking on Facebook at home | South China Morning Post 

    French Pornhub case shows how hard it is to regulate the internet | Financial Times 

    Twitter’s decline continues. I noticed this morning that Twitter allowed me to post the exact same Twitter post twice. That isn’t something that was possible previously and I could see how it could be used for nefarious reasons.

    Duplicate twitter posts
    My twitter account this afternoon when I checked it

    Quality

    How Semiconductor Chips Changed the Driving Experience Forever – Robb Report 

    Retailing

    Shein Confusion: The Fast-Fashion Giant’s New Resale Site Doesn’t Make Buying Easy — The InformationAnnie tries out Shein Exchange, the e-commerce brand’s foray into the bustling resale market. On its face, the platform seems like a good idea, given the ongoing controversies over Shein’s cheap, disposable, landfill-clogging apparel. But there is something distinctly off about the brand’s effort to sell used clothes

    Technology

    Amazon to warn customers on limitations of its AI | Reuters 

    Amazon’s new AI tool may take over work from employees facing layoffs and buyouts – Voxthe tech giant has been working for at least the last year to hand over some of its recruiters’ tasks to an AI technology that aims to predict which job applicants across certain corporate and warehouse jobs will be successful in a given role and fast-track them to an interview — without a human recruiter’s involvement. The technology works in part by finding similarities between the resumes of current, well-performing Amazon employees and those of job applicants applying for similar jobs

    Web of no web

    EU throws party in €387K metaverse — and hardly anyone turns up – POLITICO