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  • Expandables

    BBC documentary series The Men Who Made Us Fat is a fascinating mix of health, marketing history and the law of unintended consequences that has affected the modern diet. One phrase struck me as being a quite interesting. Expandables was a term to use a category of food products that would be part of multi-pack or buy-one, get-one-free deals. The products couldn’t be economic substitutes for instance discounting one type of meat would have it substituted over another meat-type.

    In the case of food products it is usually items that people graze on, so this usually ends up not being the healthiest foods. The idea of grazeable supersized foods came from the middle of the last century in Chicago. There David Wallerstein came up with the idea of supersizing popcorn servings. Wallerstein came up with a behavioural change experiment as business idea based on the insight of that people might want to buy and eat more popcorn, but were simply ashamed of buying two bags.

    Wallerstein was successful in his experiment. Wallerstein was appointed by Ray Kroc to the board of McDonalds in 1968 and then rolled out larger servings in McDonalds restaurants. So in that respect one could consider Wallerstein the inventor of expandables.

    Another McDonalds business person Max Cooper, who was franchisee is credited with inventing bundling – packaging a high margin drink and french fries with a low margin burger. What McDonald’s now call their ‘combo meals’ or ‘extra value meals’. This cemented the role of expandables in food sales.

    Unfortunately, this fits in with an unfortunate evolutionary trait, that humans are hardwired to consume high energy foods. And if the consumer has paid for it, they will eat it. Expandables are considered to have driven obesity, (there is some statistical correlation in obesity levels that suggest correlation).

    More information

    Zoe Harcombe’s blog has a complete summary of the TV episode to put expandables in context.

    More related posts can be found here.

  • Microsoft Surface

    Some thoughts on the implications of the Microsoft Surface launch:

    Microsoft and tablets

    I found the Microsoft a curious device full of interesting design choices. It was interesting because it seemed to be defined by what it wasn’t. The device was a world way from the clunky tablet keyboard combos by the likes of Fujitsu and Motion Computing who had helped Microsoft get tablets a niche place in the enterprise many years ago.

    The keyboard covers were also an acknowledgement that whilst keyboards are useful tablets aren’t really content creation devices in the sense that ultra books are. The keyboard looked like the kind of membrane keyboard found on industrial computer kiosks or the vintage Texas Instruments Speak’n’Spell toy. For the supposed ultra book competitor it was an interesting choice. As a MacBook Air user, I already chafe at the limited travel keyboard on the device with its limited haptic feedback which acts as a limiting factor on my touch typing speed.

    What I haven’t been able to reconcile is where a tablet fits into my life. I have used one to enjoy my South China Morning Post subscription and have skimmed the online version of Wired magazine (give me the print any day). However most of the time it just services as an ancillary screen displaying ambient media like TweetDeck or the occasional Skype call. Quite how tablets will revolutionise my life is at the moment unclear. My architect friend who evangelised the iPad to me originally seems to be using it a lot less since upgrading to an iPhone 4S, and isn’t in the market for a new iPad unless something radically changes.

    Curious design language

    When I saw the pictures of the Microsoft Surface, the first thing that I thought of when I saw the magenta and cyan keyboards was Nokia’s design language for the Lumia handsets. The Windows 8 colour palette may naturally dictate some of the colour choice, but it did make me think that Nokia could be integrated into a newly muscular hardware division at the right (fire sale) price. Quite how Microsoft would keep the complex carrier relationships and channel together is another matter, maybe I am reading too much into this design choice?

    Microsoft and the PC manufacturer

    Whilst some articles have talked about the Microsoft Surface as signalling a post-PC age; I think that this lacks a certain amount of nuance. It more resembles the approach of corporations who ‘right-size’ their organisations cutting out swathes of management and flattening the organisation to get closer to the consumer. In this respect the Surface is an expression of an aspiration for a post-PC manufacturer age.

    Let’s reflect for a moment on the relationship between Microsoft and its manufacturer partners. The Microsoft monopoly was started off by IBM back in 1981 and innovators like Dell and Compaq were instrumental in driving the PC into the corporate arena. Compaq is now just a memory as part of HP’s business pioneered portable computing, Windows-based PDA devices and the MP3 player. IBM’s ThinkPad line was a mix of robust engineering and clever product design that popularised the notebook as an enterprise computing device. Dell innovated on process, allowing customers machines tailored to their needs, developed new techniques in global supply chain management and pioneered direct-to-customer telephone and online sales.

    By the early noughties however, the PC as a product offered little margin of profit for the manufacturer. Manufacturers like Sony and HP relied on software distribution deals to subsidise the cost of a computer and IBM had realigned its business towards services and consultancy so saw no need for its own PC business.

    It is hard to invest in continual product innovation when you are running flat-out to stay afloat. By this time, Microsoft had maximised its profit on these computers, but its partners had reached the end of their usefulness so a vertically integrated model became inevitable.

    This antagonistic and excessively exploitive approach to business is likely to act as a warning for future Microsoft potential partners like cellular phone and fixed line telecoms providers or handset manufacturers. Every step forward that Microsoft takes disrupts an intricate thread of relationships in markets that are key to the company’s future.

    Microsoft and technical capability

    One of the arcane features of using Microsoft Windows over the years has been getting the different components to talk to each other. A PC gaming rig at one time needed as much care and attention as an MG sports car, tweaking, prodding or even replacing components to get the machine to work with a new game. Prior to Windows’95 it was the Sound Blaster series of audio cards that allowed multimedia playback. A standard that coalesced in spite of Microsoft rather than with their help. All the different hardware permutations that need to be accounted for take a toll on code creation, integrity and innovation.

    By taking control of the complete product including both industrial design and hardware, Microsoft has reduced this effort massively. It means that the all-in-one vertically integrated model of old computing (DEC, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, CDC etc) that was considered to handicap Apple is now economically sensible again. It is like the swing of a massive pendulum with a forty year sweep is finally going backwards.
    Rogue on Mac Classic
    When Steve Jobs was commissioning the original sit-up and beg Mac design he looked to the likes of Sony and Cuisinart for inspiration. Apple’s concept of the computer as an appliance took about three decades to get mass-acceptability and the Surface gives it the Microsoft seal of approval as an approach.

    Microsoft and the channel

    The fact that Microsoft is prepared to go to the mats with the manufacturers that have supported its business for the past three decades indicates that Microsoft doesn’t need these people to reach out to the channel. Of course, Microsoft has its own retail channel relationships for software, the XBox and accessories like mice and keyboards. The question is how receptive and/or passive will the channel response be to Microsoft? If Microsoft will roll on partners like Dell and Acer with this tablet launch what will it do to the channel partners?

    Secondly, as the PC industry became unprofitable companies like IBM, HP and Dell moved into services; for large enterprise clients the very manufacturers that Microsoft has just spurned become the channel. Awkward.

    Microsoft and the supply chain

    Looking at the Surface immediately brings home the fact that Microsoft must have worked closely with an original design manufacturer such as the likes of Foxconn, Compal or Quanta to create their tablets. This is a calculated risk by the company involved as it is likely to lose business from affected PC manufacturers.

    The choice of original device manufacturer will be instructive, if it was Quanta in particular, Microsoft is likely to be relying on their patent portfolio to provide the Surface with ‘air cover’.  Foxconn is more likely to invest in specialist production facilities like the thousands of milling machines it uses to produce Apple’s i range of devices.

    You can find more Microsoft related content here.

  • Retina screens

    Unlike most long-term Apple customers, I was disappointed by the new Apple MacBook Pro models with the retina screens.

    What are Retina screens?

    Retina screens aren’t a distinct display technology, they are Apple marketing catchall term for new screens that have a number of distinct properties.

    A pixel density that would be comparable to your basic laser printer output or better. So a large display on a laptop or desktop machine can have a lower pixel count than a phone because they are viewed at further distances. An iPhone would have a pixel density of 325ppi versus a pro display of 210ppi.

    Appliances

    The original Mac Classic was in part inspired by Sony consumer electronics and the Cuisinart range of kitchen equipment. Back then appliance meant that the product worked. Form followed function.

    Globalisation brought a pivot back to manual assembly due to a  large Chinese work force. Product innards could be packed tightly like a watchmaking process. This meant smaller, thinner products were possible. Apple has been moving its consumer products to an appliance model where the products have little to no user serviceable parts because of the way they are designed and assembled.

    Professional equipment in comparison allows a certain amout of configuration and upgrading such as replacing a hard drive, switching out a battery or upgrading the available memory.

    When Apple moved to the unibody MacBook Pros Apple reassured the community that it would make replacement of the buit-in batteries cost effective. The latest models now have batteries that are glued in place so it would require replacement by Apple. (It also dents the computer manufacturer’s claims about the environmental friendliness of its device). You also can’t upgrade the RAM because it is soldered in.

    The flash memory for the solid state drive are proprietary components rather than an ‘off-the-shelf’ drive.

    The screen is now a one-piece unit so if you have a road-warrior accident, its likely to cost even more to replace.

    What you end up is a device that is ‘Pro’ in price, but not in terms of design. It is likely to drive up the total cost of ownership for businesses and consumers.

    More information

    MacBook Pro with Retina Display Teardown – iFixit

    *Archived here from a blog that I used to write for PR Week.

  • Worm by Mark Bowden

    Worm author Mark Bowden is better known for his other non-fiction (non-technology) books Black Hawk Down and Killing Pablo. He has a background as a journalist and has contributed to The Atlantic magazine. I was curious to know how a non-tech journalist would handle a story as complex as the Conficker botnet as some of the subtleties of technology are lost on people from outside the field.

    In terms of timing Worm couldn’t have come out at a better time, Stuxnet autopsies were shedding light on the complexity of the software used to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme and at the time of my reading the book the details of FLAME started to permeate out into the public view.

    Bowden did a good job getting to grips with the personalities that he chose to follow around Conficker and the hapless nature of the US government in facing the potential threat posed by Conficker; but I don’t think that he got under the skin of hacker culture or the technology.

    Because of this aspects of the characters become cartoon-like and the technology in an overly superficial way that is more Marvel than Discovery Channel. And since no one knows who really built Conficker or what it was really designed to do it feels like one of them TV series that gets cut by the network half-way through first run with the script writers desperately trying to tidy away loose ends.

    I found Worm a welcome break from the academic books that seem to be my life at the moment, but somewhat wanting in terms of substance. More book reviews can be found here.

  • London 2012 + more news

    London 2012

    London 2012 brought into sharp focus the high cost and low benefit of hosting the Olympics. The Olympics has a low to negative economic impact. London 2012 was a way of seizing land for redevelopment that benefited a few investors. To do this the organising committee of London 2012 closed down a plethora of small businesses and a previously affordable London neighbourhood was priced out of the reach of many Londoners.

    So, you thought London 2012 was for spectators? Wrong | guardian.co.ukIn 2005 the International Olympic Committee passed a 109-page document to the British Games organisers in which they described, in mind-bending detail, how Lord Coe and his colleagues at the London Organising Committee of the Olympic Games (Locog) should run the media strategy for London 2012. “The preparation period is likely to be the most difficult for Locog in terms of communications,” it explains. “Popular support may decline … soft targets should be identified … Meanwhile, there will be an enormous range of milestones that can be taken advantage of to demonstrate positive progress.” We are now well into what the document calls the operational readiness phase, during which every celebrity “honoured” to carry the Olympic torch has helped Locog satisfy their requirement to show “positive progress” with the Games. The torch run is a truly inspired PR tool. Alas, the hourly stories of its ponderous progress have not yet drowned out all coverage of those “soft target” stories which, with equally ponderous regularity, are beginning to reveal who may stand to benefit most from the Olympics – the corporate sponsors and the IOC themselves. – Not terribly surprising, just emphasises how huge a  mistake of having the London 2012 Olympics was. However The Guardian misses the big picture. The Olympics sees the city captured by a non-governmental body that answers to elites of a criminal or authoritarian nature. They dictate media laws, traffic laws and planning laws. They provide a detailed guide on media manipulation like the example quoted above for London 2012.

    Dazed Digital | East London 2012: Is It Dead? – to give an idea of how London 2012 is facilitating a real estate ponzi scheme: Reuters reported that Shoreditch was on course to become a “mini Bond Street” that would welcome luxury retailers eager to capitalise on Shoreditch’s “edgy image”. Property values in areas such as gallery-strewn Redchurch Street have doubled in the past decade, and have the potential to do so again in the next five years as the retail giants move in. For those stores that chose east London as a cheaper, dirtier alternative to the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the unthinkable has happened – the east is now mimicking the west

    Consumer behaviour

    Japan: The Country Where 59% of Households Still Have a Fax – The Atlantic because it works

    Study: First-Time Moms Spend More Time On Facebook After Giving Birth – AllFacebook – it makes sense, keeping in touch and support networks

    Design

    How Products Are Made – does what it says on the tin

    Ken Shirriff’s blog: Apple iPhone charger teardown: quality in a tiny expensive package

    Economics

    The “American Dream” Is Now A Myth – Business Insider

    China exports show big increase | RTHK – Chinese imports also increased. Reversed pattern of (relatively) weak exports

    Fed’s Fisher welcomes China FX moves but caution needed| Reuters – according to top Fed official

    Price has grown steadily as the primary driver of U.S. consumers’ purchasing decisions, – to 66% in 2012 from 60% in 2010 (paywall)

    HK economy shows ‘first signs of fissure’ | SCMP.com – due to weak Eurozone and declining Chinese economic growth (paywall)

    Finance

    Moody’s downgrades German lenders – FT.com

    How to

    Test your IPv6.

    Download Any File or Web Page by Pasting Its URL Into Firefox’s Download Window

    Ideas

    A Celebration of Brandvation | Nigel Scott – new money for old rope well presented

    Is there a terminal velocity for youth and digital? Will we burn out kids out? | The Wall Blog

    Innovation

    Corning Willow Glass announced, enables flexible displays

    Japan

    Oshima’s win in AKB48 election big news in Japan ‹ Japan Today: Japan News and Discussion – Japanese youth do not believe they can change real politics, where old politicians hold a tight grip on power, but they believe they can change AKB48

    Sony market value slumps to lowest since release of Walkman | TechEye

    Korea

    Potential of US-South Korea FTA Extolled – WWD.com (paywall)

    Luxury

    China’s reluctant tourists puzzle officials – FT.com (paywall)

    China’s frugal millionaires: moving beyond bling? | beyondbrics

    Exclusivity is not a criteria for luxury” – FT.com

    European Luxury Union flexes political muscle | Material World

    Media

    Why growth is the least of Facebook’s problems – Nigel Scott on his own version of Facebook Is A Dead Man Walking

    Parents call for ban on Facebook advertising to children – Telegraph

    Slate doubles down on podcasts, courting niche audiences and happy advertisers » Nieman Journalism Lab – charging audience entry to tapings

    Google Makes Renewed Grab for the Rest of Online Advertising – Forbes

    Don’t Mean To Be Alarmist, But The TV Business May Be Starting To Collapse – Business Insider

    Online

    ‘Facebook tax’ could make web companies pay for usage outside the US — Engadget – could also nuke start-ups

    Facebook And Twitter Shares Closely Linked With High Google Search Rankings Says New Research – according to research by Searchmetrics

    Retailing

    Improving Product Returns Presents Biggest Opportunity for Retailers – low-hanging fruit in e-commerce

    Security

    Flame espionage malware issues self-destruct command | Ars Technica

    Germany agency to mine Facebook for credit worthiness info | TechEye

    Ad Networks Bypass iPhone Privacy Rules – WSJ.com – (paywall)

    Software

    App Developers Signal Apple Allegiance Ahead of WWDC and Google I/O

    Samsung Joins Linux Foundation as Platinum Member | The Linux Foundation

    HTC to offer Sony Playstation games on smartphones – Campaign Asia-Pacific – HTC one-ups Samsung in war of content; Flipboard versus PlayStation games

    Why I left Google – Spencer Tipping – probably getting more attention than its worth at the moment, but an interesting point-of-view none the less. Interesting how Google’s engineering culture in some ways conflicts with trying to build a social application / platform

    Technology

    The giants keep getting larger and stronger | EETimes – on technology sector structure

    Sharp, SEL Revamp IGZO TFT — Tech-On!

    Web of no web

    E3 2012: Wonderbook: Book of Spells Features Writing from J.K. Rowling – PlayStation Blog – really impressive print / console game integration to create a web-of-no-web experience makes more sense than mobile augmented reality like Layar

    New Technology Adds Keyboard Feel To Touchscreens – BYTE

    Wireless

    Sharp, Hon Hai to make smartphones for China ‹ Japan Today

    IDC: Nokia moved just 2.2 million Lumias this winter, but stay tuned — Engadget – explains why Microsoft maybe pushing HTC out, to leave room for Nokia

    HTC Said to Be Shut Out of Next Version of Windows – Bloomberg – sounds a bit deja vu

    Communities Dominate Brands: Smartphone Markets Shares in 2012, some relevant illustrations to understand the Bloodbath

    TI OMAP 5 kicks iPad 3 GPU butt

    Face To Face: How Airtime Will Re-Humanize The Internet | TechCrunch