Intelligent Relations – Matt Muir nails this in his take down of their machine learning powered media relations platform – Vapid, largely-pointless busywork which despite its almost universal lack of import is nonetheless treated by its practitioners as somehow REALLY VITAL and with a reverence normally reserved for stuff that matters rather than with the disregard appropriate for an industry staffed largely by double-figure-IQ morons. Anyway, that’s all by way of preamble to the introduction of Intelligent Relations, a new company which is set to make PR even worse if you can imagine it. Intelligent Relations (it sounds…it sounds like an escort agency for the sort of people who bother applying to Mensa, is what it sounds like) is PR, but with AI! That’s right, AI! The MAGICAL SECRET SAUCE that makes EVERYTHING BETTER and definitely isn’t a sign that someone is attempting to sell you some magic beans! Just listen to this – “GPT-Powered Outreach, 24/7 analysis of all relevant public event data to identify opportunities and pitch your company’s stories faster than the competition…Relentless customized global outreach based on AI-ranked relevancy to your brand. Generate responses that start, nurture, and build personal relationships with media influencers. Put your execs and your company in the heart of the conversation. No agency. You own your relationships – not your PR firm…Precisely worded campaigns, aggressively scaled with technology. Faster than humans, more personal than email blasts.” So, er, you are outsourcing the writing of pitch emails, and followups, to a machine? Have, er, you read any non-tweaked GPT-3 generated copy recently? – All of this stuff about machine learning powered media relations reminded me of the start of my agency career.
I was working with an agency that was part of the Interpublic Group. We were riding the technology boom of the mid-to-late 1990s. This was a series of booms that were inter-related.
Telecoms boom, came from deregulation, the rise of data services, globalisation and the internet
Enterprise software boom driven by Moore’s Law, the ability to interconnect systems and exchange data at rates previously unseen. There was a strong incentive to replace old systems due to concerns about the millennium bug
Mobile boom as GSM networks and their CDMA equivalent democratised the mobile phone and allowed for nascent data services
The dot.com boom as companies built service layers over the top of data networks. Much of the ambition was way ahead of where technology was
Hardware boom. Businesses and consumers needed to get online
Our CEO at the time Larry Weber came over to the office in Covent Garden, met clients and held court. He turns around to the junior staff and tells them how soon they won’t have to worry about manually contacting journalists or compiling status reports. Instead, the contact work will be outsourced to the Philippines (thanks to the telecoms boom). And data that was entered once in the company intranet WeberWorks would through the power of Lotus Notes be diced into the reports that the clients needed.
WeberWorks in its first iteration was a proof of concept, not a viable product. Though I believe that the successor agency Weber Shandwick stuck with developing the platform.
22 years later and agency life faces much the same problems, except an algorithm is touted to replace Filipino call centre workers in this scenario. What does machine learning powered media relations have that a Filipino call centre doesn’t? How will the PR profession grow when the on-ramp for people to learn how it works is now taken over by a machine learning powered media relations service instead?
A lot of PR technology is based on the expectation that (machine learning powered) content will be fed into a media sausage factory and coverage will come out. But relationships are important, as journalists get hundreds of pitches and press releases per day.
Consumer behaviour
Phoenix eyes’ on catwalk of mainland academy’s fashion gala draw fire for insulting China ｜Appledaily – Some netizens accused the university of humiliating China after a video of the event on YouTube showed that most of the models either had an eye shape known as phoenix eyes, or were using eyeliner to present the same appearance. The eye shape, which is identified by a slight upward lift at the outer corner of the eye, is considered a desirable facial feature. However, some people regard it as a harmful stereotype reinforced by Western culture and the fashion industry. One influential blogger on Weibo, China’s dominant social media platform, said that because this look conforms with the stereotypes of ethnic Asians it carries a meaning of serious humiliation – this might be what passes for woke in China. The story was originally published in the English version of the Apple Daily Hong Kong on June 21, 2021 three days before the paper closed down. I have linked to to a Wayback Machine archive of the article.
Competition and concentration | Financial Times – The 1980s financialisation of the US economy created a mindset that manufacturing did not matter — and that it should therefore be shifted to lower-cost labour markets. The high value-added stuff, including R&D, would remain onshore. It didn’t turn out like that. Like any other activity in life, manufacturers learn by doing, which means that the most effective innovation usually takes place alongside production. That’s why so many of America’s most impressive companies, including Intel, shifted a lot of their R&D to China – great take on globalisation here. It also gives a sense of where the FT’s view is on the process
The Evolution of Corruption in China | Foreign Affairs – corruption comes in distinct flavors, each exerting different social and economic harms. The public is familiar with three main types. The first is petty theft: police officers shaking down people on the street, for example. The second is grand theft: national elites siphoning off massive sums from public treasuries into private accounts overseas. The third is speed money: petty bribes paid to regular officials to bypass red tape and delays and grease the wheels of bureaucracy. All three types are illegal, vociferously condemned, and rampant in poor countries. But corruption comes in another, more elusive variety: access money. In this kind of transaction, capitalists offer high-stakes rewards to powerful officials in exchange not just for speed but also for access to exclusive, lucrative privileges, including cheap credit, land grants, monopoly rights, procurement contracts, tax breaks, and the like. Access money can manifest in illegal forms, such as massive bribes and kickbacks, but it also exists in perfectly legal forms – I was thinking of the favoured firms during the British empire and the chaebols during the Park presidency in South Korea. The chumocracy of UK politics is closer to speed money
Ideas
Digital Addiction Hunt Allcott, Matthew Gentzkow, and Lena Song (NBER.org working paper) – Many have argued that digital technologies such as smartphones and social media are addictive. We develop an economic model of digital addiction and estimate it using a randomized experiment. Temporary incentives to reduce social media use have persistent effects, suggesting social media are habit forming. Allowing people to set limits on their future screen time substantially reduces use, suggesting self-control problems. Additional evidence suggests people are inattentive to habit formation and partially unaware of self-control problems. Looking at these facts through the lens of our model suggests that self-control problems cause 31 percent of social media use. – or in other words social media is like big food, the illegal drugs industry, alcohol, tobacco and gambling (PDF)
Innovation
Losing sight of the Future – Noahpinion – interesting article but the author forgets about energy density as an issue in their own predictions whilst mentioning it as a flaw in prior ones
EE to reintroduce Europe roaming charges in January – BBC News – EE, which is part of BT Group, previously said it had no plans to reintroduce roaming charges in Europe. – No plans meant that they didn’t have their act together at that time, typical BT in other words
Scott Galloway talks about the way brands are using AI (machine learning) and the examples are very much in the background. Welcome to the sublime world of machine learning where the impact on the customer experience won’t be apparent. In many respects this is similar to how fuzzy logic became invisible as it was introduced in the late 1980s.
The Japanese were particularly adept at putting an obscure form of mathematics to use. They made lifts that adapted to the traffic flows of people going in and out of a building and microwaves which knew how long to defrost whatever you put into it. Fuzzy logic compensated for blur in video camera movement in a similar manner to way smartphone manufacturers now use neural networks on images.
The Japanese promoted fuzzy logic inside products to the home market, but generally backed off from promoting it abroad. The features just were and consumers accepted them over time. In a quote that is now eerily reminiscent of our time a spokesperson for the American Electronics Association’s Tokyo office said to the Washington Post
“Some of the fuzzy concepts may be valid in the U.S.,”
“The idea of better energy efficiency, or more precise heating and cooling, can be successful in the American market,”
“But I don’t think most Americans want a vacuum cleaner that talks to you and says, ‘Hey, I sense that my dust bag will be full before we finish this room.’ “
This was also the case with the use technology companies made of Bayes Theory. This was used by the likes of Autonomy and Microsoft Research.
A second technique was rules, put simply IF then THAT. This kind of technology has been used to drive automated trading models and credit card approvals for decades. Pegasystems are one of the leaders in developing rules based processing. Rules based systems could even be built in an Excel macro and would still count as a form of machine learning.
Finally machine learning needs to think about a number of things with regards the models being used:
The importance of accuracy in the use case
The level of precision required and ways to indicate that precision means
The cost of generation versus other methods, this is very important in terms of computing power and energy consumption
Why learning machines? Simply because I don’t want to get into an argument of what an AI actually is, so hence the title change – but interesting watching.
The Churchill Club manage to get top drawer panelists for this session on learning machines
Yoshua Bengio, Professor, Department of Computer Science and Operations Research, Universite de Montreal
John E. Kelly, Senior Vice President, Solutions Portfolio and Research, IBM
The panel was moderated by long time New York Times technology journalist John Markoff.
Key takeouts for me were:
Cycle since the 1950s of over-promising and under delivering that drove nuclear winters and booms. Current cycle goes back to the DARPA autonomous vehicle competitions of the past decade. Neural networks weren’t seen as ‘AI’, they went out of research fashion in the 1990s and research picked back up in 2005. Deep learning is basically layers of neural network – more layers = ‘deeper’. Deep nets are now the standard for learning machines. Object recognition improved in 2012 and both industrial and media interest took off.
Performance has been helped by improved hardware, which has driven the breakthroughs.
Learning machines still need a lot of human guidance, unsupervised learning isn’t doing as well. It probably explains why IBM has so many people working on Watson projects. This also explains why Watson is externally seen primarily as a ‘marketing concept’.
Rate of change in semiconductors. Moore’s Law is likely to top out at 5nm. Carbon nanotube devices will be the new silicon in semiconductors. Quantum computing will drive performance in certain types of calculations by a factor of 20. Graphene is better for analogue devices, nanotubes are better for switching. The cost of transistors has stopped falling, which has an implication for new disruptive industries.
We’ll get performance and density, the cost of which is more uncertain. Computing power is important for learning machine technologies. Power consumption (computing power per watt) is tremendously important. IBM Watson on Jeopardy used 85,000 watts to beat two 20 watt humans.
Back propagation allows the use of lower power processors. Speech and vision are areas of a big push, but the most exciting area is language recognition and understanding with recurrent networks – implications for conversational interfaces and services.
IBM think cognitive computing is a wider area than ‘machine learning’. Cognitive computing is what IBM think will transform ‘digital transformation’ through learning machines.
AI has a definition problem due to fashion and academic quarrels.
Watson was originally designed to deal with massive unstructured data rather than building an AI. Data was growing faster than IBM could develop for. Watson had a data centric focus. It sounds rather like the vision I once heard articulated for both Autonomy and Palantir.
Consumers will see Watson as ‘insights’. Watson as a learning machine focuses on comparing and contrast to try and find patterns.
Interesting that IBM went in so hard on healthcare as an example, given how they eventually retreated from the sector after scandals over unsafe diagnosis.
UPDATE: October 6, 2020 – report on AI progress here.
This retrospective look at 2024 was inspired by a post from 2023. I reflected on the year’s events, with conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, and numerous elections worldwide.
Generative AI and cryptocurrency sectors dominated the tech scene. The Farfetch-Coupang deal highlighted the influence of top luxury brands, while Richemont became a speculative takeover target.
L Catterton’s strategy of acquiring undervalued brands continued in 2024.
GLP-1 weight management medications trended in healthcare, with tirzepatide as a focus. Advertising saw a downturn in 2023, but a positive outlook was forecasted for 2024 by the IPA Bellwether report.
January 2024
IP
2024 marked the first iteration of Mickey Mouse, known as Steamboat Willie, entered the public domain. Copyright protection had been extended for 95 years due to political pressure from the media industry. Modern variants of Mickey Mouse remain protected.
Just in time for generative AI to conjure up new variations.
Florida bypassed intellectual property-based pricing by importing prescription drugs from Canada to reduce costs.
Mastermind?
In the trial of British citizen Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong, the prosecution alleged he orchestrated the 2019 protests, overlooking longstanding social issues highlighted by the Beijing liaison office. Lai’s Next Media and Apple Daily, sparked controversy akin to the Daily Star in the UK, but weren’t a counter-revolution.
If Mr Lai is the figurehead of the Hong Kong protests, it implied fragility within the Chinese state. Committing crimes like sedition and colluding with a foreign power doesn’t require being a mastermind.
Data Element – X
China unveils a three-year ‘Data Element – X‘ plan from 2024 to 2026, anticipating a 20% annual growth in data-related sectors—four times the current economic growth rate. Data Element X encompasses various industries and technologies, including machine learning, data processing, big data, databases, data gathering, digital transformation, smart cities, digital twins, cloud computing, and metaverse services. This initiative is poised to gain increasing prominence in international business and policy circles over time.
Luxury inclusiveness
LVMH bolstered its watch division, appointing Frédéric Arnault to oversee Hublot, TAG Heuer, and Zenith. Loewe experienced a surge in momentum, highlighted by a campaign featuring veteran actress Dame Maggie Smith and signed Jamie Dornan as a global ambassador for 2024, likely making it the most inclusive luxury campaign of 2024.
The month began slowly, with many decision-makers out of office until January 15th. Byron Sharp published a paper “The Market-Based Assets Theory of Brand Competition” in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, challenging classical marketing methodologies of segmentation and targeting. Despite speculation about the demise of CMOs, research suggested it won’t happen yet.
WPP consolidated major PR brands H&K and BCW, leading to significant job consolidation, particularly in finance and HR. The rebranded business Burson signifies a departure from WPP’s usual naming conventions. The restructuring is expected to impact Europe and Asia-Pacific the most. Provoke Media provided insight. (Disclosure: I previously worked with Corey duBrowa at WE; and later at Burson-Marsteller & Colgate’s Red Fuse agency.)
CES 2024 expanded beyond consumer electronics, featuring products targeting enterprises. Notable highlights included logistics robots, vehicle microchips, and device operating systems. L’Oreal’s demonstration of 3D printed lipsticks marked a shift towards disrupting manufacturing, and their keynote marked a historic moment for beauty companies at CES.
Health was a key focus at the 2024 show, but more intriguing developments unfolded at JP Morgan’s Health Care Conference in San Francisco. CES organizers excel in gathering research on consumer electronics and technology, with one slide from their presentation catching my attention this year.
The slide examines US consumer technology spending, specifically focusing on software and services. Entertainment content continues to dominate, reminiscent of the 1970s, while retailers and e-tailers still profit from high-margin extended warranties like AppleCare. In contrast, digital health services barely register on the chart.
AI is as ubiquitous at CES 2024 as MSG on my favourite Japanese instant noodles.
Amazon implemented job cuts, particularly affecting its media divisions such as Prime Video, Twitch, and MGM, amidst industry-wide consolidation efforts. Additionally, Amazon Prime Video introduced an extra fee for ad-free viewing. Technology layoffs continue into 2024, focusing on realignment around AI, impacting companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and SAP.
According to Davos attendees I know, finance professionals discussed AI-powered trading models, prompting nightmares about Greg Secker becoming Goldman Sachs’ CEO.
AI-based trading models, previously reliant on fractal theory and the assumption of market organicity akin to Gaia theory, have gained traction. The work of one team was celebrated in Thomas A. Bass’ book “The Predictors,” yet risks remain, illustrated by Nassim Taleb’s Black Swan Concept and the Long-Term Capital Management failure.
Japanese novelist Rie Kudan discussed her use of AI in her life and writing.
Stanley’s insulated tumblers gained popularity, with secondary markets like StockX seeing considerable mark-ups. The maximum price paid on StockX was £290.
Despite the Philippines’ healthy economic growth forecast of 6% in 2024, CNN Philippines shut down all channels: broadcast, mobile, and online.
In other news
During the 2024 New Year period, Japan faced a strong earthquake and a two-plane accident. Fortunately, passengers on one plane escaped without serious injury. In 2024, the UK lost veteran DJ Annie Nightingale, aged 83, known for championing new music, particularly various dance music genres stemming from house music, the warehouse scene, and digital production.
The US SEC approves the first cryptocurrency-based ETFs, while Korean Telecom (KT) shut down its NFT platform.
In Taiwan, Lai Ching-te and the DPP win the election but lack a parliamentary majority.
Unusual cold weather in the middle of the month was followed by strong winds, caused a large metal wheeled bin to roll down my road.
In Russia, a law is passed claiming territory previously held by Russia, including Alaska. Meanwhile, the UK considered introducing conscription due to tensions with Russia, but survey respondents express reluctance towards it.
An FT opinion piece discussed how views among young cohorts have diverged between progressive politics and conservatism, with implications for various political and social issues. Rob Henderson called it the ‘gender equality paradox‘ based on findings in academic research in psychology.
February 2024 saw the transition in the lunar calendar from the year of the rabbit to the year of the dragon. Flickr turned 20 years old.
Apple starts taking orders for the VisionPro. The Vision Pro generates lots of reviews. The general consensus was interesting, but not ready for consumer adoption and no one is clear what its ‘killer app’ is. It has this in common with the Mac’s launch some four decades earlier. We forget now that the Mac was seen by IT people as a toy. It didn’t have a ‘use case’ until Adobe and Apple partnered on the LaserWriter PostScript-powered laser printer. This allowed Aldus Software’ PageMaker desktop publishing software to print its designs.
The iPhone had a similar problem when launched, but the second generation had the app eco-system which sold the iPhone.
Apple Newton eMate 300
The first generation Vision Pro may be a future success, or an interesting diversion like the Apple Cube or the eMate. This explains why there was a high initial return rate of Vision Pro headsets.
nVidia’s quarterly result exceeded expectations by a large margin and the share price went up 17% overnight to 35x earnings. It felt like a bubble, here’s what Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons had to say:
nVidia’s right place, right time Perfect Storm. nVIDIA’s meteoric rise over the past year was triggered by OpenAI’s ChatGPT launch on November 30, 2022. Once word got out it was using 10,000 nVIDIA GPUs, the flood gates burst open. In a deluge of hope, hype and hysteria, not seen since the late 1990’s Internet driven Dot-com boom, AI is up front and center of every firm’s ambition with stock market investors swooning at dreams of an AI-overlord future. nVIDIA deserves its place in the sun and the chip industry thrives on legendary moments like these. Leaving aside the hype, AI will eventually make current products better and smarter, and enable new products to be build that were previously impossible, it’s what the chip industry does best, but no chip market has ever taken off based on a US$40,000 IC!
Chinese government contractor I-S00N was hacked and a trawl of data dumped on Github like Mosseck Fonseca. It showed the asymmetry of costs between hacking and being hacked.
A US Senate hearing spotlights online platforms’ harm to children felt different. Social media platforms faced severe criticism, with Mark Zuckerberg offering apologies. TikTok’s responses sparked debate on the hearings’ undertones, contrasting with Meta’s approach.
Good news for the Hong Kong economy ahead of lunar new year, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase in December. However, the rise masked challenges, including the popularity of warehouse shopping in Shenzhen, leading to less spent in Hong Kong. Retailers are grappling with the recent growth of Hong Kong’s e-commerce sector. Despite this, excitement was dampened by a failed attempt at ‘tentpole events,’ as an exhibition soccer match with Inter Miami saw the team’s stars benched. The match, organised by Tatler Asia, raises more questions than answers.
Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee likely had a better time than Labour Party politician David Lammy, who faced criticism from Indian business elites during a business trip to India over London’s violent Rolex robberies.
Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman brought his deflating rubber ducks art installation to Kaohsiung port in Taiwan this month.
Starbucks partnered with Gopuff for late-night coffee deliveries, challenging competitors like Shell filling stations and McDonald’s McCafe.
Novo Nordisk acquired another pharmaceutical company to grow Wegovy production, potentially affecting future price reductions.
Tod’s planned to go private in a deal with L Catterton, maintaining majority ownership with the Della Valle family and minority stakes for LVMH. This followed on from the L Catterton deal to take Birkenstock private and then relist at a much higher valuation.
Adidas and Nike shift away from scarcity models for sneakers, signalling a peak in the secondary market.
China aimed to revive its housing sector and economy with a cut in home borrowing rates over five years.
Marketing and adjacent areas
The Guardian used ‘dadcast’ to describe a podcast perceived as privileged and exhibiting toxic masculinity. There’s speculation about jealousy towards profitable podcasts catering to middle-aged men’s interests. Some noted on LinkedIn that ‘Dad’ is increasingly used in mainstream media as a disparaging term.
Vice Media undergoes significant layoffs, prompting reflections from the CYBER podcast team on the company’s decline. Amazon reports advertising revenue exceeding 8 percent in Q4 2023, largely at Google’s expense.
Amazon’s success is attributed to AWS facilitating data collaboration for media buys and Prime Video’s brand-building content. However, a study from Australia finds that brands shifting from linear TV to video on demand lose market share due to ineffective media planning.
The “bad neighborhood” effect may contribute to poor YouTube performance, with many ads promoting low-quality products.
Metalheadz celebrates its 30th anniversary with a collaboration with Stüssy. Burberry’s Harrods takeover got attention for dressing the doormen in ‘knight blue’ check.
i-D magazine shifted direction, suspending print and online publication but continuing daily updates on social media as part of a new business model and editorial leadership. This move reflected an evolving landscape of fashion publishing.
Condé Nast parted ways with Vogue China editor Margaret Zhang. Zhang’s background in translating Chinese youth culture for Western audiences in corporate settings may not have prepared her for leading a large editorial team profitably, especially in the digital age. Her lack of immersion in Chinese culture and experiences of online harassment didn’t help.
Despite challenges, Zhang initiated notable projects such as a mentoring scheme for Chinese designers. Luxury brands like LVMH explored product placement and financing Hollywood projects, tapping into the growing demand for high-end wardrobe in popular shows.
Taylor Swift’s impact on the Super Bowl contrasted with lacklustre advertisements during the event, while Lunar New Year ads felt safer than usual. Jollibee, a Filipino fast-food chain, succeeded on Valentine’s Day with its film “My Kwentong Valentine’s Day: 30 Dates,” showcasing its connection with customers through relatable storytelling.
Ring surprised customers with a 43% increase in subscription fees, from £34.99 to £49.99 per device per year for basic plan users, effective March 2024. The price hike sparked outrage among customers, leading to cancellations and tips on locking-in better deals for longer.
Rabbit AI, touted as the standout product of CES 2024, resorted to static ads on YouTube to boost pre-orders. This approach raised doubts about whether extensive global media coverage and event hype resulted in a substantial waiting list.
Humane AI, which launched in 2023, announced a delay in shipping their AI personal assistant. Meanwhile, the BBC updates its approach to using generative AI responsibly, a process evolving since October last year when initial principles were established. Kara Swisher published Burn Book; her memoir as a tech journalist, which is part-therapy, part dot-com boom to late state capitalism evolution of Silicon Valley. More in my review here.
Unbeknownst to many, the BBC has a history of innovation, evidenced by creations like the LS3/5A loudspeaker design originating from a 1972 BBC research paper. Over the years, the BBC has adopted a ‘co-pilot’ approach to language translation for its World Service, utilizing a service called Frank, initially funded under the EU GoURMET programme.
The recent BBC update focused on enhancing content propagation through different formats and more personalized marketing, raising concerns about reducing a common truth across diverse audiences and potentially exacerbating societal polarization.
In other news, The Body Shop appointed administrators, drawing attention to its challenges since its acquisition by L’Oreal.
The power of design
Europe doesn’t get to enjoy the bold design of the 2024 Lexus GX, which combines luxury with a rugged Tonka toy aesthetic, surpassing even Mercedes’ G-Wagen.
YouTube’s top car reviewer, Doug DeMuro, likened the GX’s impact to that of a Lamborghini Countach.
London Fashion Week was either hybrid or reminiscent of past eras, lasting just four days. Highsnobiety hosted events under the ‘Not in London‘ banner. London Fashion Week was 40 this year, as was UK magazine Gay Times, which underwent a process of reinvention as it slips into middle age.
Tate & Lyle updated designs for its Golden Syrup on plastic packaging and extensions, but not on its traditional tin.
How February 2024 memed?
Let’s steer clear of the conspiracy theories about Taylor Swift. Instead, consider the “AI-two step,” a term I got via Antony Mayfield. It describes the process of job destruction in knowledge worker sectors through the implementation of AI-enabled software: step one involves introducing these processes, followed by step two: gradual layoffs to avoid media attention. This phenomenon parallels last year’s “Patagonia vest recession.”
March 2024
March began with cold, rainy weather as I freelanced at PRECISIONeffect. In Rochdale, a veteran politician won the election, known for anti-Israel and pro-Russia views. The Washington Post obtained documents revealing Russian misinformation campaigns. The United States and the Jordanian air force airdropped food aid along the Gaza Strip coast after land delivery resulted in 100 deaths. Train fares increased, causing frustration with Avanti West Coast cancellations. Taylor Swift concerts were discussed for their geopolitical impact. President Biden addressed gender inequality in medical research, and Chalmers University in Sweden unveiled a computer model predicting 90% of lymphatic cancer cases.
Luxury
Omega ran a teaser campaign that harks back to its long association with the NASA Silver Snoopy award and the Speedmaster range of chronograph watches. The timing of this release was about getting ahead of the bevy of new products launched at Watches & Wonders trade show. It was yet another Swatch homage to the Omega Speedmaster, in white plastic and an animated Snoopy, which is like Gordon Ramsay shilling for Pepperami.
Omega
Bangkok, Thailand, now a hub of Asian pop culture, boasts local artists rivalling former Cantopop and K-pop stars in Southeast Asia. Louis Vuitton’s The Place in Bangkok offers a unique retail experience combining exhibition, immersive experience, restaurant, and luxury store.
Trade magazine Business of Fashion and Bloomberg called out LVMH quiet luxury brand Loro Piana over exploitation of indigenous people in Peru.
“In New York, Milan or London, the fashion house Loro Piana sells a vicuña sweater for about $9,000. Barrientos’ Indigenous community of Lucanas, whose only customer is Loro Piana, receives about $280 for an equivalent amount of fiber. That doesn’t leave enough to pay Barrientos, whose village expects her to work as a volunteer.”
Matchesfashion.com went into administration, three months it was bought as a turnaround target. This is the latest in a number of distressed multi-label boutiques. Farfetch was sold out Coupang at the end of 2023.
Marketing and related areas
My blog renaissance chambara turned 20 years old on March 13, 2024, and the stone tablets of advertising planning were made 50 years ago. BBH did a nice essay on the original JWT London planning guide here. It was 35 years since De La Soul released their iconic first album 3 Foot High and Rising – now remastered with bonus unreleased tracks.
De La Soul by DeShawn Craddock
Remember when Adidas parted ways with Kanye West (back in 2022)? Well, Adidas waited until March to sell the last tranche of shoes from the Yeezy range. Later on, they announced their first net loss since 1992. The resurgence of interest in the Gazelle and Samba shoes through spring and summer last year were not enough to plug the gap. Adidas hopes that China will drive double digit growth, though the Chinese market can be volatile and there are more homegrown and foreign brands to compete with. In the meantime, pain was piled on pain, with the German football association opting to go with Nike rather than Adidas from 2027.
The US Congress passed a law to force Bytedance to sell TikTok, or, face a ban from US app stores within six months. ‘The TikTok Ban‘ – so TikTok had user deluge politicians with calls. The advertising world went into a tizzy about THE TIKTOK BAN.
Less commented on was LinkedIn’s ability to embed video in posts like this, or create hyperlinks within articles using its editing functions became broken. Hence the move to images and writing this offline and cut-and-pasting back in which at least kept hyperlinks.
What was almost as important, but got a lot less coverage was the news that Meta was finally going to zuck CrowdTangle with a shutdown due in August this year. NewsWhip tried to step into the breach left by the demise of Crowdtangle.
The continued inflation pressuring low income households was good news for instant noodles. According to the FT, their long shelf life made them a hedge against inflation. Lower income customers bought instant noodles to make ends meet, Nestlé was pressured by ESG investors to pivot towards healthier foods.
Nestlé
Nestlé brand Maggi – is one of Asia’s most popular instant noodle, soups and seasonings, which is likely to fall foul of the ESG push.
CNN estimated that the Bud Light influencer marketing campaign with Dylan Mulvaney cost $1.38 billion in revenue terms through 2023. In the aftermath of the Bud Light backlash, AB InBev’s share of the US beer market declined by 5.2 percentage points in the second quarter, dropping to 36.9%. By February, the company had closed the deficit from its May peak by 1.2 percentage points, with a steady rate of ground gained every three or four weeks. However, the expenditure required to close this gap remains undisclosed.
Unilever announced the spin-off of its ice cream brands, framing it as a shift towards higher-performing brands. It’s surprising that Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s weren’t considered high-performing, suggesting a macro view on categories. Combining them with the Heart brands’ ice creams made sense from a supply chain and distribution perspective, possibly driving the decision.
Other news
Iris Apfel, known in fashion and textiles for decades, passed away at the age of 102. She began her career writing for WWD (Women’s Wear Daily) before founding Old World Weavers Inc., which reproduced textiles from the past for restoration projects. Apfel managed the business for nearly five decades before retiring in 1992. Her fame as a socialite grew from her client base, and soared after her retirement. Her unique style, influenced by five decades of travel, garnered attention, leading to the publication of her autobiography and representation by IMG.
We also lost science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, author of True Names – a predictor of the modern internet. David Brin wrote a poignant tribute to Vinge. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman died aged 90.
Joseph E. Chandler by Kerri Chandler
The term “house music legend” has been used casually, but it aptly describes veteran New York DJ/producer Kerri Chandler. In honour of his father Joseph E. Chandler, a disco-era DJ who influenced him, Chandler released 73 tracks for free download. His father would have turned 73 had he lived.
Karl Wallinger, frontman of World Party, has passed away. He is best known for his song “She’s The One,” famously covered by Robbie Williams.
How March 2024 memed?
The meme likely to define the year, akin to last year’sPatagonia vest recession, was coined by Scott Galloway: Corporate Ozemic. It encapsulates businesses’ adoption of LLM-based services to automate workflows and reduce staff. Klarna, a pay-later business, served as a poster child, admitting to displacing 700 former employees.
At SXSW, there was audience pushback against ‘AI’, a phenomenon not seen during the dot com boom. Big tech needed to invest heavily in political campaigns, lobbyists, PR firms, and lawyers.
The first photo of Princess Kate since her surgery was withdrawn by Associated Press for manipulation that didn’t meet their standards. Speculation ensued, leading to a popular meme identified by StickyBeak. Later a BBC video disclosed her cancer treatment.
April 2024
April started as a bank holiday in the UK and Europe. The global economy has very mixed data. In the UK, the NHS looked to roll out insulin pumps to a lot of people with type 1 diabetes. Google introduced its medicine-specific large language models. Health technology business ZOE lays off a number of staff.
Luxury
Industry exhibition Watches and Wonders 2024 saw new timepieces from fashion brands like Chanel and Hermés alongside watch-makers like IWC and Rolex. Rolex’ gold Deepsea is the most conspicuous luxury item that I have seen to date. It’s a sold wedge of gold, ceramic and titanium.
As a tool watch, the Deepsea is a ridiculously large slab of stainless steel. In gold it became surreal and garish due to its scale. Gold has very different physical properties to stainless steel, which is why key structural parts are having to be made from titanium and ceramics. It weighed in at 397 grams, or the equivalent of wearing two large iPhone 15 Pro Max’ on your wrist.
The Deepsea was the antithesis to the growth in women’s watches at the show like a last stand of toxic masculinity embodied in horology. Meanwhile export earnings by LVMH, were larger than the whole of France’s agricultural sector. Earth Day happens across LinkedIn. The best thing I read was the pointed critique why Vogue Business didn’t cover it.
No brand is doing enough to warrant a celebration of its impact on the planet.
Rachel Cernansky, Vogue Business
Marketing and related areas
JP Morgan announced a new advertising venture utilising Chase customer spending data. It was unclear whether this mirrors the brand partnership agreements like those of Amex, or if it entails a more programmatic approach.
An investigation of Forbes alleged that the publication was selling premium priced online advertising inventory on ‘spammy’ sub-domain for seven years. This raised yet more questions about the wisdom of using online media.
Hootsuite acquired TalkWalker; adding social media listening to its publishing and reporting capabilities. Meta’s Threads announces an intention to provide a Threads API in June and published developer documentation.
Google Podcasts is shutdown, more on the Google product death march here. Google leaked Apple’s plans for RCS support. Apple launched the first major update to VisionOS allowing for shared experiences. It was ideal for education or training scenarios. eBay UK went free-to-sell for individual sales of pre-used fashion, taking Depop head-on. News-focused Twitter alternative Post.news announced plans to shut down over the next few weeks. Humane AI’s pin device not well received by reviewers despite impressive engineering.
Other news
Pharrell Williams launched a new album called Black Yacht Rock, while creative director at Louis Vuitton. It was my album of 2024.
https://flic.kr/p/2pJAup9
Hong Kong’s ban on many single-use plastics comes into force, with criticism from retail and hospitality sectors. 1990s skate brand iPath comes back from the dead.
How April 2024 memed?
Probably the biggest story online was how Rishi Sunak wore a box fresh pair of Adidas Samba soccer training shoes to an interview and went viral online. Sunak later apologised for wearing the shoes, but the style damage was considered to be done already for Adidas (at least in the UK).
Rishi Sunak
May 2024
The end of April and beginning of May was uncharacteristically cool and wet. We had an impressively loud thunder storm. Universities in the US and Europe cleared out campuses occupied in protest at the Palestinian cause. This had a ‘Streisand effect’ like impact, internationalising the protests. Novo Nordisk looks for even further uses for semaglutide – looking at alcohol use and liver damage along with a trial currently running looking at potential benefits with regards Alzheimers.
For months previously, the political discourse I heard around me was that we need change. Sunak needs to go. Sunak announced a July 4th election with just six weeks of campaigning and most of the amateur pundits I knew looked as if they had been on the wrong side of a Power Slap championship match.
Premium priced streetwear brand Supreme turns 30, but it’s not all good news as Vogue Business claimed Stüssy’s drops are more popular than those by the younger upstart. Synthetic diamonds had a moment for a while in the US jewellery trade. But now that Danish jewellery brand Pandora has succeeded with synthetic diamonds it feels like global mainstream sales are just around the corner.
TAG Heuer teamed with Kith and brings back the Formula 1 at the 2024 Miami formula one Grand Prix race. It is a watch that sits somewhere between a scuba Swatch and the Luminox dive watch.
Luxury’s involvement in NFTs resulted in Dolce & Gabbana being taken to court over an NFT-related metaverse offering.
Can two turkeys make an eagle? Balenciaga and Under Armour seemed to think so with their collaboration revealed on social media at the end of May.
PDD Holdings, the owners of tat merchant Temu and Chinese e-tailing platform Pinduoduo became worth more than China’s Amazon analogue Alibaba. Tough market conditions for luxury and a decline in the consumer relevance of TMall vs. Pinduoduo may be partly responsible for this.
Marketing, media and advertising news
ZAK published a report on how different cultures are having a global influence. It tells a nice story that conceals a layer of complexity. For instance, Hallyu has been an overnight success, the best part of four decades in the making with the sales of international dramas and films. I do like their model on brand partnerships.
It was lovely to see a project that my former colleague Rohit worked on had won a bronze award at the New York Festivals Health Awards for a film that was made to explain a key concept that differentiated the client’s vaccine.
Marketers and long-time Apple customers complain about Apple’s crush! advertisement. YouTube followed Apple’s lead in censorship in Hong Kong, following a Hong Kong court ruling banning protest anthem ‘Glory to Hong Kong‘ from appearing online. Unlike YouTube, Apple didn’t need a court order to ban HKmap back in 2019 during the citywide protests.
Nestlé launched its Vital Pursuit range in the US. This is a range of high-fibre, high protein foods with calorie-controlled portions aimed at consumers using weight loss medications based on GLP-1. Kao expanded its ambition for ESG, as Unilever went in the opposite direction.
WARC research predicted that Meta advertising will imminently equal or even surpass global linear television. This doesn’t include connected television, or indicate that Meta advertising has comparable brand building effectiveness to linear television. It also doesn’t include the wide variance in customer base. Meta has enjoyed a large amount of growth from China based direct-to-consumer e-tailers and apps like Temu and Shein.
Online media powerhouse LADBible expands its commercial footprint to cover south east Asia and Hong Kong through partner Val Morgan Digital. And the London Evening Standard stops publishing on a daily basis, moving to a weekly format thanks to changes in working amongst Londoners.
Other news
We lost Tony O’Reilly this month. O’Reilly was Richard Branson-like figure in Ireland. He was famous for creating Kerrygold dairy products way back in 1968. He also negotiated a distribution deal for Erin Foods with Heinz and ended up running Heinz up until 2000.
Film executive RogerCorman died. Corman’s impact on Hollywood was pervasive. He wrote, directed and produced cult classic films in his own right. He fostered talent that went on to great things and distributed important foreign films from French new wave directors to Akira Kurosawa.
Technology news
Apple continued to suffer from depressed sales in China and launches new iPad models for the first time in two years. OpenAI totally did not copy Scarlett Johansson’s voice in a creepy homage to the Spike Jonze film Her. As The Atlantic wrote at the time:
The Scarlett Johansson debacle is a microcosm of AI’s raw deal: It’s happening, and you can’t stop it.
This is important not only from a technology point of view, but from the mindset of systemic sociopathy had become pervasive in Silicon Valley. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs thought generative AI will eventually boost GDP and productivity.
Key details about how Google search works was leaked and poured over by search marketers and the media.
Spotify ended support for its Car Thing device and offering refunds to consumers.
How May 2024 memes?
Kendrick Lamar and Drake had a running feud. Lamar made allegations of Drake having a secret child and alleged that Drake slept with minors. A straw poll of people I know, seemed to show that on balance they were team ‘Kenny’.
June 2024
May 2024 ended in a similar manner to the way it had started with blustery showers, though we did get a bit of sunshine in between. I had worked through the end of April and May on a project for GREY / TANK Worldwide. It was a great experience working with GREY team members based in Copenhagen, Port Elizabeth and Mumbai, alongside a TANK team based in London.
We went into June 2024 with a UK general election hanging over us with voting due on July 4, 2024. Labour party candidates only finalised selection on 4 June 2024. IPSOS provided some of the best voter intent data.
It’s hard to communicate how little enthusiasm there was for the general election. The news agenda seldom touched on the election, but was captured by gambling related scandals that embarrassed both the Conservatives and Labour.
ITV hosted one of the worst formatted events I have seen for a television electoral debates.
The 45-second answer format allowed for little more than formulated soundbites rather than a nuanced informed debate. Neither candidate impressed. The 41st edition of British Social Attitudes (BSA) report, published by the National Centre for Social Research revealed a lack of confidence in UK’s system government and its politicians – which meant that all parties had an uphill battle ahead of them.
In Hong Kong, the authorities used Article 23 for the first time to arrest and charge seven people. This seemed to be an action to pre-empt any commemoration of the June 4th protest movement and subsequent Tiananmen crackdown. Among them was barrister Chow Hang-tung, who was already facing a possible 10-year prison sentence under the 2020 National Security law.
Chow faced an additional seven years in prison for inciting “hatred and distrust of the central government, the Hong Kong government and the judiciary” via social media.
All of this added additional complexity for Meta and Google in the territory and was at odds with Hong Kong government efforts to reignite its past status as Asia’s ‘world city’ through tourism and inbound investment. Cathay Pacific was pressured by the government to focus more on Middle East destinations.
Luxury
Karl Lagerfeld prodigy Virginie Viard left Chanel. Chanel had been commercially successful under Viard. Her departure was the final break with the Karl Lagerfeld legacy. Fendi announce their own range of in-house manufactured perfumes, selling for a cool £300 each.
OTB announced it is to sell NFC tagged items that would be verified via Aura blockchain. This will is rolled out in the fall / winter collections of Jil Sander, Maison Margiela and Marni. Expect this to become commonplace as European Union digital passport rules come into force.
LVMH buys L’Épée 1839 – who make decorative clocks and kinetic artworks. L’Épée 1839 is stocked in luxury jewellers like Pagnell and Bucherer. Speculation re-emerged about a LVMH acquisition of Richemont.
Frasers acquired multi-brand online boutique Coggles from THG.
A number of western luxury brands closed their Tmall stores (AMBUSH, NYX Professional Makeup, Mark Jacobs Fragrances). Commentators point out that the cost of running and promoting a store on Tmall had got too expensive.
Balenciaga created a haute couture dress that is designed to unravel after its first wear. It’s an ocean of nylon mesh that sparked concerns about luxury ‘fast fashion’.
Marketing, media and advertising news
Mainland Chinese restaurant and café brands LMM Lemon Tea 柠濛濛, Western Hunan fast-casual chain Luobo Xiangnan 萝卜向南, Takoyaki chain Gulugulu 咕噜丸子屋, and BBQ brand Xita Laotaitai 西塔老太太 shut their Hong Kong stores. An increase in Hong Kongers going to Shenzhen due to the strong US dollar (which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to vs. the yuan) and a lack of tourists are thought to be partly to blame.
Spotify allegedly used audiobook bundling as a way to reduce payments to publishers and songwriters. ChiefMartec’s 2024 landscape of marketing technology finds that the amount of products has now grown by over a quarter to over 14,100 and claims that there are over 400,000 marketing agencies around the world. All of this is played out as marketing platforms from Amazon, Bytedance, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet have steadily consolidated greater share of marketing spend.
The long-running discussions between Skydance and National Amusements which held the fate of Paramount Pictures in the balance were stopped. Discussions had been ongoing since the end of 2023.
The UK general election campaign was mischaracterised in the media as ‘the first TikTok election‘. According to GWI, the biggest platforms for political content in the UK were X (21%), YouTube (20%), and Facebook (18%). Labour had outspent the Conservatives on advertising prior to legal restrictions kicking in; but Conservative posts seem to have got the most impressions for their money.
Harley-Davidson took UK retailer Next to court over trademark infringement on clothing design. Vodafone’s The Nation’s Network creative work starts to appear. The insight tried to address the very human truth of wider feelings of disconnection in the general public. However, given that Vodafone had been trying to consolidate its network with Three UK, the tagline seemed disingenuous to some observers. Why would Vodafone need to merge with Three if it was already the nation’s network?
Design newsletter Sidebar retired (at least for a while), 12 years and the cost of running a daily newsletter hitting 90,000 subscribers took its toll. All of which makes Dave Farber’s Interesting People list seem even more remarkable. At the time, Interesting People had been running since May 1993.
WPP’s consolidation of brands continued with Burson .
The New York Times partnered with grocery delivery service Instacart on shoppable recipes. This was not only an opportunity for quality media, but a threat to the likes of Fresh Direct and other DTC meal kit companies.
Defunct radio station brand Atlantic 252 returned to the airwaves over 20 years after going off-line. the media pack claimed a 40+ target audience with whom the brand has some recognition.
Chinese brands were prominent sponsors of the UEFA Euros 2024: Hisense, Ant Group, Vivo, BYD, and AliExpress. Cannes festival of advertising saw a campaign that I was involved with shortlisted. The film was aimed at healthcare professionals in Greece and the Philippines.
2024 Cannes festival of advertising had a focus change towards audience enjoyment, while downplayed the focus on purpose. Ad agencies were reassured by platforms like Tiktok and Meta not wanting to squash them and steal their clients.
It didn’t take long for private equity funded YouTube channels to see an exodus of talent.
Speculation revolved around IPG agencies R/GA and MullenLowe.
Other news
Donald Sutherland, the offbeat tank commander in Kellys Heroes and arch villain in the Mockingbird film series died at 88.
Technology news
Mixed reality business Magic Leap announces a strategic partnership with Google. Magic Leap seemed to be focusing on its optical design, with Google handling software duties. Google got rid of its endless search results page.
Microsoft announced further layoffs limiting mixed reality plans to existing defence and enterprise contracts. There were also lay-offs in cloud services.
Raspberry Pi announced a low-power on-device AI option that could work for uses like facial recognition. This represented an opportunity for hobbyists and product designers. It wasn’t as powerful as Intel’s Lunar Lake or Qualcomm’s SnapDragon powered processors.
Apple WWDC 2024 saw generative AI techniques integrated into the company’s operating systems, applications and software development kits. Apple took steps to do as much work on device as possible and ensure privacy when cloud processing was used. Apple announced that Apple Intelligence related features will not be on EU phones in 2024.
Japan forced Apple, Microsoft and Google to allow third-party app stores. The EU introduced tariffs on Chinese manufactured electric vehicles and took legal action against the Apple app store and Microsoft Teams.
Several retailers and FMCG companies came together to call for the QRcode to replace the barcode on products as part of the GS1 standard. As regulatory standards like the EU’s digital product passport regulations come in, the barcode is no longer fit for purpose. Amazon started to compete directly with Temu and Shein.
Habbo Hotel returned. Illegal movie streaming site Fmovies goes offline. It turned out that the network of sites were run from Vietnam.
Goldman Sachs published a sobering analysis on generative AI from productivity gains to likely return on investment. This became popularised in July amongst investors and business leaders. It is at odds with Mary Meeker’s assessment of generative AI.
How June 2024 memed?
Across both Chinese and western social media, the ‘boyfriend photographer‘ trended. The general consensus was that boyfriends didn’t take the best pictures of their girlfriends for their social media account, at best they were snaps. Girlfriends looking for reciprocal pictures were better photographers.
July 2024
By mid-June it still hadn’t felt like summer had arrived, but silly season had arrived. Surrey police rammed an escaped adolescent cattle. The Conservatives polled as low as 23 percent prior to the general election.
As June rolled into July, the heat arrived and then went. For polling day we had bright sunshine and a pleasant breeze. Before the rain rolled back. We were well into the middle of July before the heat arrived.
Advertising and marketing news
The middle of 2024 saw some high profile interest in M&A activity. Following on from IPG-related news; WPP rebuffed a private equity offer to buy FGS Global. Carlsberg bought Britvic, the UK’s Pepsi bottler and a soft drinks brand in its own right. This will have implications for agencies as Britvic is integrated. Ford brought back the Capri as a mum truck. But the teaser campaign to build hype and ultimately disappoint car enthusiasts was pretty clever. The new 2024 Capri is a badge engineered Volkswagen.
Luxury
Private club memberships hit a slump in Hong Kong. Secondary market prices on memberships trade at a 20% discount. Factors include reduction in corporate memberships, less business being carried out in the city, less expats and less of a nightlife orientation for mainland 1000 talents visa holders from the mainland.
Boreham Motorworks
Ford partnered up with Boreham Motorworks and announces a continuation / restomod of the RS200 and the mark 1 Escort RS2000. Teenage me would have been very excited at this news. 2024 marked the 40th anniversary of the launch of the Ford RS 200.
Burberry decided it needed to become more accessible and replaced its CEO. Sunglasses oligopoly EssilorLuxottica bought Supreme from VF Corporation just as the streetwear brand had entered its wilderness period. Formula 1 dandy Lewis Hamilton became a brand ambassador and guest designer for Dior menswear. LVMH brand TAG Heuer became formula 1’s timing partner from the 2025 season, displacing Rolex.
Giorgio Armani moved out of fashion watches and into the luxury segment with the 11, made by Parmigiani Fleurier. Originally these had been launched as a 200-piece limited edition in 2022, but the advertising seems to indicate an ongoing product now.
Virgin Atlantic announced the cancellation of its last far east route; Shanghai finished at the end of October 2024. L Catterton bought into Bicester Village – a UK based luxury outlet mall.
Media and online
Twitter rejoins GARM as a move towards increased brand safety needed to start getting advertisers back. Social media network Noplace launched. It is designed to appeal to the nostalgia for better online times circa 2008. The Wall Street Journal fired Hong Kong-based journalist Selina Cheng for being elected to the HKJA ( Hong Kong Journalists Association) – a local professional association. The WSJ approach – espoused support for western values and progressive principles BUT not in China or Hong Kong.
Apple did a deal with Taboola for its Apple News service. OpenAI launched SearchGPT and Reddit barred a number of major search engines from crawling its service except Google. Over three years after Google planned ‘depreciating’ third party cookies, it took until July 2024 for the company to backtrack on this plan. Apple launched a web version of Apple Maps.
The IPA Bellwether report indicated continued increase in marketing spending.
Other news
During the US presidential campaign Donald Trump was shot at. President Biden declared that he wasn’t going to run for a second term. Kamala Harris became the candidate to run against Donald Trump and JD Vance. England went through to the final of the Euros. China’s third plenum signalled a continuation of the Xi administration’s economic approach with little change to take account of domestic conditions.
Shannen Doherty and fellow Beverly Hills 90210 star Luke Perry in happier times.
Beverly Hills 90210 was ubiquitous on television in the 1990s and its stars became some of the best known faces. One of the most famous, Shannen Doherty died on July 14th.
We lost Hong Kong film actress Cheng Pei-pei. Cheng was a martial arts star who came up through the Shaw Brothers studio system and made her mark as female protagonist Golden Swallow in Come Drink with Me. Over six decades she appeared in films shot across Asia, America, Australia and Europe. She reached a western audience in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – reprising the wushu skills she’d used in numerous Shaw Brothers films.
Technology
Samsung launched a ring (Samsung Galaxy Ring) which monitors health-related data and syncs with the company’s smartphones and watches. Sasan Goodarzi at Intuit fires over 1,000 people for ‘poor performance’ as a big bet on automation. Apple mocked for ‘launching‘ a black Apple HomePod under a different name. Crowdstrike struck out countless enterprise Windows PCs through botched update to security software. On the plus side, it happened on a Friday.
I was wilfully ignoring the Olympics in Paris, but the sabotage of the high-speed rail system caught my attention. It reminded me of a 2002 attack on the BT network.
How July 2024 memed?
Change
2024 was a year of elections around the world. July 2024 saw two big elections, the general election in the UK and the French national legislature. The UK general election saw a new labour party government headed by Kier Starmer. This ended a 14-year run of conservative governments. In France, president Macron saw a European parliament election and national legislature election which rejected his leadership. It wasn’t a good time to be an incumbent politician.
August 2024
The end of July brought a heatwave. Early August cooled slightly and we had a bit of rain. The hot weather brought a febrile atmosphere to the UK, which resulted in riots.
The government did a slow drip feed of news about how broken the UK economy is in advance of the autumn budget. The conceit that they didn’t know in advance wore thin according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies.
I did my best to ignore the 2024 Olympics in Paris; but the William Defoe voiced Nike ad broke through. It’s a really nice piece of craft, it divided opinions. I would love to know what communications job was the advert supposed to do? Because only then can we really understand if it was successful or not. Nike would not have been happy with the negative criticism regarding the table tennis bat licking which was seen to be insulting China.
The Nike ad contrasted with the film Adidas did featuring Japanese olympian Nonaka Miho (Japanese names have the family name first).
But Nike was right winning isn’t for everyone; and their financial results were not winning for shareholders who had a lot of complain about through 2023 and 2024. The UK had a similar problem to Nike, not fulfilling its promise; Labour looked under hood and saw that £20 billion of spending plans were unfunded.
Luxury
Chanel launches a smartwatch / earphones combo. Other luxury companies had tried to play in the connected space in the past from an LG / Prada collaboration in the mid to late 2000s to TAG Heuer’s smartphone and smart watch products. Jing Daily, a luxury business publication focused on China finally launched its ‘pro‘ subscription-based tier.
Marketing
No sooner had Kelloggs broken into two companies, than Mars purchased Kellanova – the maker of Pringles and Poptarts. The Mars purchase is a bet against the transformation of grocery sales by GLP-1 weight management treatments. Agency consolidation is an area of obvious efficiency gains. Steve Bartlett, the Social Chain and Flight Group founder, had ads banned for Huel and Zoe.
Generative AI-assisted search engine Perplexity announced plans for advertising before end of 2024.
Online
MySpace turned 21 years old. US authorities win an antitrust case against Google.
France arrested Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov. This broke new ground in an attempt to regulate platforms. Twitter got banned in Brazil. BlueSky added support for video and features to limit dogpiling and hostile quote posts.
Middle class families in the UK and Ireland disappointed as demand and ticket touts outstripped supply of Oasis reunion tour tickets. I found Creamfields underwhelming.
Retail legend Myron E. Ullman III died. Ullman started at IBM, but then built a career driving successful retail operations at Macy’s, DFS (Duty-Free Shopping) now part of LVMH, Starbucks and JC Penney.
Technology
Google gets rid of the Chromecast, replacing it with a set-top box. Nvidia announced it was using an LLM machine learning model to aid in design of its graphics processing unit (GPU), central processing unit (CPU) and networking chips. Their intent was to speed up design process and increase the pace of chip development.
IBM shuttered its R&D facility in China. Technology website Anandtech, most famous for its deep thorough reviews of of significant products closed down. Online ad business The Trading Desk was rumoured to be developing a smart TV operating system in order get more advertising revenue and share some of it with TV set brands.
How August 2024 memed?
Misinformation
Cardiff-born Axel Rudakubana attacked a Taylor Swift-themed children’s party in Southport. He was charged with three murders and ten counts of attempted murder. False information on Rudakubana’s background, religion and immigration status spread across social media.
This sparked riots in Southport, Rotherham, Hartlepool and Sunderland. A mosque was attacked and at least some of the violence was put down to far right activists. The far right were involved in much of the online discussion of false information. Twitter received much of the blame for being a conduit of the misinformation. The UK government warned social media platforms of their obligations under UK law. The misinformation was repeated in WhatsApp messaging groups, causing one county councillor in Wales to resign his position after spreading false information. The evidence of Russian involvement in the misinformation activity is scant at best. Kier Starmer’s comment about ‘rot deep in the heart‘ of British institutions and politics could equally well be extended to British society.
A similar attack claimed by the Islamic State that happened in Solingen, Germany didn’t result in Southport-style rioting.
September 2024
I spent August in the north and much of the weather I experienced felt more like spring or autumn than summer. This wasn’t just summer showers, but the storm force winds that came with it. The weather seemed appropriate for the tempestuous feel of the United Kingdom at that moment.
September 1st, the temperature went back up to 27 celsius, with showers and thunderstorms, the torrential rain continued through the week.
Party conference was somewhat overshadowed by a drip-feed of low-level revelations of donor gifts.
Business news
2024 turned out to be an annus horribilis for large German industrial companies. Volkswagen announced a plan to shutter one or more German car plants. The company failed to recognise its sales problems stemmed from multiple issues including vehicle quality, a failure to build hybrid vehicles and poor pricing strategy for purchase vs. leasing. Ex-Bain Consulting executive John Donahueshown the door at Nike – after failure to recover from strategic and tactical decisions were dumpster fires at a time of increased competition from the likes of On Running and Hoka. Donahue’s actions cratered the Nike share price, it rose 10 percent on news of his departure.
Luxury news
Queen Elizabeth passed away two years ago This meant royal warrants, that are perceived as a mark of quality were changed to reflect the King’s views and tastes. Brands where royal warrants were lost, worried about brand impact. Brands that gained a royal warrant, gained some perceived value – but probably won’t have the impact it did when Elizabeth came to the throne.
Loro Piana and New Balance launched a co-branded version of the 990 v6 shoe. You paid $1,500 for the cobranded shoe, rather than $240 usually charged. The two-speed luxury sector continues into September 2024, with Burberry removed from the FTSE 100.
Gucci
Gucci got in on the act of having an older muse a la Loewe and with a campaign featuring Debbie Harry. Talking of an older muse, Donald Trump launched a $100,000 gold watch with a Trump branded dial. LVMH sold Off-White, the streetwear brand founded by the late Virgil Abloh.
Marketing
UK retailer John Lewis brings back ‘never knowingly undersold’ price promise. ASOS sold Topshop and Topman. Sony announces a free version of Grand Turismo 7 to celebrate 30 years of the PlayStation to be launched at the end of the year. China sees a 50 percent drop in mooncakes sold and threatened to blacklist western brands not using Xinjiang cotton, starting with Calvin Klein. The reasons are partly economic and partly health consumer attitude related as mooncakes are very calorie rich.
Nike
As Nike lost its CEO, the settlement of a lawsuit between Nike and A Bathing Ape allowed the sports apparel brand to collaborate with BAPE founder and current Kenzo artistic director Nigo.
Nike
Quote of the month
The biggest fallacy in marketing is that consumers want more choice, they don’t, they want more confidence in the choice that they make – Professor Scott Galloway on his podcast The Prof G Pod (September 18, 2024).
Media
Authorities in the US issued an indictment against Tenet Media for work carried out for state media company Russia Today. US government goes to court with regards Google’s ad tech business.
Meanwhile GBNews owner Paul Marshall bought The Spectator for a reputed £100 million. The Observer was put up for sale.
Gracenote’s provided ‘pop-up video’ type trivia for large video platforms. These kind of pop-up facts and reactions are more commonly used on Asian TV programmes in the likes of Japan and South Korea. Hoonigan, the automotive parts, lifestyle and media brand founded by Ken Block filed for bankruptcy with over $1.2 billion in debt due to over-expansion.
Online
Twitter still banned in Brazil, fined $900,000 per day by Brazilian courts. TikTok went to court to try and prevent a ban of the platform in the US.
Other news
Loewe muse and star of stage and screen Maggie Smith died at the age of 89.
Technology
Generative AI company Anthropic launched Claude for Enterprise; which supports enterprise features like SSO (user single sign-on). In what was believed to be a supply chain attack, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkie handsets used across Lebanon and Syria detonated at the same time. Israel was considered the likely culprit.
Maja Pawinska Sims wrote for Provoke Media about how the US presidential race, to Charli XCX and Taylor Swift had been using the power of joy strategically in terms of their influence campaigns. I recommend going to the article and giving it a read.
Storm Ashley battered the Atlantic coastline of Europe, reaching the west of Ireland first. It trended as a hashtag trended across social media platforms.
Luxury
Rolex opens first wholly-owned store in China. This follows a year on from the Bucherer acquisition. Watches of Switzerland purchased Hodinkee, which explained why the watch publisher withdrew its retail offering. On Running launches collection with Loewe – the Cloudtilt collection.
LVMH announced poor financial results and uncertain outlook. This was for a few reasons: China’s economic outlook, the strength of the Japanese yen vs. the Chinese yuan. Middle class financial health had declined from 2020 highs.
2024 marked a 12% drop in sales for the Swiss watch industry. Into this change, Patek Philippe launched their first new range of watches in 25 years. The Cubitus was designed to reach a new generation of watch wearers. It’s a divisive design, GQ collected the positive takes, others like pre-owned watch dealer BQ Watches were less enthusiastic.
Godfather of streetwear Shawn Stüssy dropped his first collection under his S/Double moniker in a decade. Stüssy had announced his return in July. This first collection was Australia and New Zealand only, done in association with the Hill Brothers who are behind Globe.
Media
Meta allows brands to shut down comments on ads. Reuters introduced paid online consumer subscription. WPP warned markets over economic uncertainty going forwards.
Online
Twitter allowed in Brazil again, after it paid its fines and blocked banned accounts; Elon Musk also had spent time cosying up to the Russian government. Dutch police arrest people behind Bohemia and Cannabia dark web marketplaces. Roblox alleged to have inflated metrics and become a ‘pedophile hellscape‘ for children. Meanwhile, the UK prosecuted its first person for using generative AI to create child pornography.
The Internet Archive’s ‘Wayback Machine’ was hacked, responsibility claimed by pro-Palestinian hacktivist group. Content delivery network Cloudflare breaks RSS for many sites across the web. London online car service Addison Lee gets bought and plans to expand to other cities including Liverpool. YouTube rolled out a controllable playback speed across videos. Rather than picking from a number of predefined speeds you now can speed up or slow down using a slider.
Technology
Apple made a ‘subtle‘ change to the iPhone’s contact-sharing permissions that make it hard for address book based growth hacking of apps – while still facilitating usage, but at a slower pace. IronNet which was founded by Pentagon veterans as an enterprise security firm filed for bankruptcy. Chinese scientists reportedly used a D-Wave quantum computer to crack AES and RSA and published a paper on it. Amazon refreshed its Kindle range. Apple Intelligence launched but failed to impress partly due to a more intentional, integrated approach and general bugginess.
How did October 2024 meme?
Anxiety and glee respectively greeted razor fine margins between both Republican and Democrat presidential candidates in the final weeks before the election. There was the bizarro headlines to contend with as well. It all made grimly compelling watching, rather like the Dickie Davis-narrated Mega Crash series of motor racing accidents compilation VHS tapes.
November 2024
October ended with an uncharacteristically late storm (Super Typhoon Kong-rey) hit Taiwan causing hundreds of injuries. November started cool and dry, though you could cut the air like butter with the tension surrounding the US election and Rachel Reeves’ first budget. Collin’s Dictionary made ‘brat‘ one of its words of the year killing off the summertime meme. Donald Trump had a decisive win in the US presidential election. Speculation started on what a Trump president would mean across all policy, economic and social areas.
Luxury
Loro Piana took over Harrods windows for the Christmas shopping season with its workshop of wonders.
The Vatican launches its manga style mascot, designed on their behalf by Tokidoki. Hello Kitty turned 50. Christmas advertising spend rose 7.8% from 2023. The Onion bought InfoWars – the media outlet of Alex Jones. BlueSky saw a boost as Twitter faced an exodus of high profile users. Sony made a bid for Kadokawa Corporation. Kadokawa publishes manga including the Gundam series, owns the BookWalker platform – a kind of Kindle store for manga, computer and gaming magazines, anime films and TV series, record label, role-playing table top games and computer games including Elden Ring.
At the end of the month, two things showed a difficult future for the UK media industry. A UK parliament report reflected on both local and national news media futures. UK TV programme exports dropped slightly in 2024 by 2%.
Online
Amazon launched a sub-$20 offering called Amazon Haul to compete with Temu and Shein, in plenty of time for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It allowed free product returns. Ted Baker returns as an online store. Which? launches a class action suit against Apple with regards to iCloud storage options.
In a sign of a weak economy, John Lewis partnered with Klarna.
Other news
Record producer Quincy Jones died. Typhoon Toraji prompted a T8 warning (gale force winds and very heavy rain) in Hong Kong, later lowered to T3 (equivalent to a UK amber weather warning for rain). It historically has been unheard of to see a typhoon this late in the year, typhoon season is typically in July, August and September. In the UK, storm Bert lashed the country with uncharacteristically warm weather, high winds and torrential rain.
A Hong Kong court sentenced 45 former opposition politicians to up to ten years in prison. The heaviest sentence was given to Benny Tai. Tai is a former associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and the most prominent thinker. Tai used his expertise in constitutional law to help the Occupy Central sit-in, 2016 Legislative election and the 2019 district council election upsets.
Ireland goes to the polls, given its proportional representation system, the vote counting (and recounting) took a while.
Technology
Amazon’s assistant Alexa turned 10 years old. Long time technology journalist Om Malik wrote about the decline in rate of growth for the internet. ChatGPT turns two.
December 2024
It was a damp start to December. The Irish general election results were slowly trickling out and thankfully the Irish electorate rejected some of the far right candidates.
Business
Novo Nordisk announced trial results for its latest weight management treatment CagriSema, the share price dropped significantly. To add insult to injury rival Eli Lilly were allowed to use their rival weight management product to treat sleep apnea by US regulators. Unilever abandons its pioneer position in sustainability, mirroring the thinking in Nick Asbury’s The Road to Hell.
The Guardian agrees the sale of its Sunday newspaper The Observer to Tortoise Media. Apple+ TV celebrated its 5th anniversary. Taylor Swift’s Eras tour which had ran through much of 2023 + 2024, finally finished. The 149 shows grossed $2 billion in ticket sales. Group M announced that global media spending for 2024 past $1 trillion – over half of it going to technology platforms.
Marketing
McDonalds brought back its McRib burger, complete with a Christmas themed advertisement and jingle. For the UK’s main Christmas ads, I put them all together here. IPG acquired by Omnicom in deal announced. Expected to go through in the second half of 2025.
Online
Foursquare shut down its City Guide app, it looked like they will be merging some of its features into their Swarm app instead of you having to use two apps. The revised Swarm app is due to appear sometime in 2025.
Chinese social network RenRen went offline. A notice on their site dated December 2, 2024 talked about a fundamental upgrade, comparing the existing service to a petrol car and the forthcoming new service to an electric vehicle (literally translated new energy vehicle – which covers electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids etc).
Data showed Amazon had biggest Black Friday takings ever. Krispy Kreme got their online ordering system hacked. The hack had a material effect on Krispy Kreme’s financial results.
Pre-owned online retailer musicMagpie was acquired by the AO Group.
Other news
I got to see Front 242 perform their last show in the UK at the Electric Ballroom in Camden. The Black Out Tour was their last tour. After this tour, they retired. South Korean president Yoon declares martial law and then cancels the declaration of martial law hours later. The Assad regime ruling Syria collapses in the space of a week.
Ozempic face, the thinner but aged look of the wealthy who have managed to lose weight rapidly with the help of semaglutide injections given for aesthetic rather than medical reasons.
To bring you up to speed, The Economist did a really good podcast about this category of drugs.
Given that I worked on Wegovy, the planner in me feels a little disappointed that we didn’t get Wegovy to verb. Ozempic instead stole brand gold mainly down to Novo Nordisk suffering from ‘unprecedented demand’ at US launch until now. At the end of May, semaglutide had its own episode of South Park.
The money quote from Cartman:
“Rich people get Ozempic, poor people get body positivity”
South Park: The End of Obesity
On June 10th, 2024 Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen went on Bloomberg Television to explain that they haven’t created, nor are they responsible for the social media hype surrounding semaglutide medications.
Later that month it even appeared on the runway at Berlin fashion week. At least Ozempic face is better than ‘skinny jab‘.
The sales pitch.
I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements from January 2025 onwards; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.
Welcome to my September 2024 newsletter, this newsletter marks my 14th issue. When I lived in Hong Kong and dealt with Chinese accounts, the number 4 was considered unlucky, rather like 13. 14 is even worse due to it sounding so similar to ‘is dead’ or ‘will be dead’ or ‘will be certain to die’ depending on the variant of the spoken language used. In other cultures the symbolism of 14 is more nebulous at best.
September got off to an odd start, we seem to have had all the seasons, rather than settling gently into the run up to autumn. I managed to avoid traditional mooncake during mid-autumn festival celebrations that I attended. My waistline was thankful for the #ROMO (relief of missing out).
New reader?
If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here.
Things I’ve written.
Being on the ground in Merseyside as the Southport stabbings unfolded gave me a different perspective on things.
How generative AI features are affecting the Google search experience and much more.
My reading for September 2024 slacked off a bit as real world obligations kicked in.
The Old Woman With the Knife worked on a number of levels for me. Firstly, I loved its portrayal of modern Korean society, from the aging population to the Confucian view of seniority that makes everyday interactions more complex than other Asian societies. Without revealing too much, the old woman in question is someone in the twilight of her career and how she is coping with new up-and-coming rivals at work.
Panic! edited by Michael Lewis. Michael Lewis became famous when he wrote an account of his career in investment banking in Liar’s Poker. His career overlapped with the 1987 financial crash. Since then he has been a writer who has documented key turns in the economy. Because of this background Lewis was the ideal person to curate a history of financial crisis from contemporary accounts at the time. Panic! covers the 1987 financial crash, the 1998 debt crisis, the dot com bubble, and the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007/8. I read the book in short bursts mainly due to asks on my time, rather than the nature of the book. Panic! seemed pertinent to read now. The publication of Pegasus Research’s iconic quantitative research on ‘burn rates’ in March 2000 on dot.com company burn rates makes it highly relevant to revisit when we are in hype cycles such as those surrounding health tech, fintech, crypto and more – if for no other reason than pointing out the folly of trying to pick winners in hype-driven public markets with a high degree of opacity.
Klara and the Sun by Kazuo Ishiguro moved from my to be read pile to must read pile given everything that has been going on with generative AI over the the past couple of years that it has sat on my bookshelf. Ishiguro uses speculative fiction to explore the different kinds of love and attachment, alongside loss. From a machine learning perspective it poses interesting questions about applying observational learning rather than rules based learning in systems that are supposed to exist in the real world. Klara is an ‘artificial friend’ for a child who is going through ‘levelling up’. Levelling up could be seen as a euphemism for everything from the cramming schools popular in Asian education systems to the challenges humans face in an information heavy environment. Ultimately there is something more human and child-like in Klara’s experiences than the human co-protagonists.
Things I have been inspired by.
AI proficiency.
Section, the education company founded by Professor Scott Galloway has AI proficiency as a key element in its offering. They have put together research to show how low the current level of proficiency is. They consider this research a rallying cry; but the results could also be reflective of a technology adoption curve that isn’t moving at the speed of hype, which is what came through in my examination of public discussions during the summer.
Secondly, research from the Upwork Research Institute implies a higher a higher adoption rate of generative AI, but lower success rate with the outputs generating inefficiencies rather than productivity gains. Part of the problem seems to come from organisational leadership and the way generative AI is being implemented.
WARC have published a report which looks at What’s working in generative AI from a marketing perspective. Some of the ideas like synthetic data in market research are not quite in prime time yet and generative AI’s large carbon footprint can’t be ignored.
Digitalisation and brands
Harvard Business Review published research that indicated a weaker relationship between profit share and brand in certain types of businesses. On the face of it, this supports Scott Galloway’s ‘end of brand‘ hypothesis. WARC covered the research paper in depth pointing out that for each percentage gain in market share highly digitised businesses gain 0.19% increase in profit compared to 0.26% in less digital businesses. This seems to be due to a multitude of factors:
Efficiency gains due to digitalisation have an effect on the existing profit prior to the market share. Efficiency is the main selling point of much digital automation from CRM systems to performance advertising.
Market power of larger companies ( a la Google).
Perceptions of quality – digital-only companies might look more reputable due to the lack of real-world signals to the contrary
Market share (and brand) still matters, but it hits different depending on the business. B2B and growth hacking business approaches gain less than consumer orientated businesses. A larger dataset of Kantar-sourced data analysed by Oxford University researchers found that better brand effects were down to ‘difference’ as in how customers see – and experience the brand – as being different enough from competitors.
FEAST
FEAST is an occasional magazine and curated set of events all about food and its ingredients. If you are a strategist working with a food or beverage client it’s well worth exploring their archive as a source of inspiration for insights given its in-depth and thoughtful arts-based approach.
Streaming plateau
I finally got to dive into Ofcom’s Media Nations research report. I recommend that if you are involved in the advertising-media industrial complex in any way shape or form, spend some time reading it. On the plus side, survey respondents consider accurate balanced news as a key part of the public service mandate of radio and television. Secondly during 2023, broadcast brought many of us together still for key events including the first episodes of tentpole series.
Ofcom
More dispiritingly, I realised that amongst the tentpole TV series was season 23 or I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here. TV advertising revenues declined faster than online video revenues grew and subscription based video on demand take-up plateaued. It’s pure speculation on my part, but this might have been reached because COVID accelerated adoption.
Finally, as a film fan who buys Blu-Rays of films that don’t appear on streaming services consistently, the amount of time watching DVDs and and Blu-Rays have a very small usage across all age groups. I don’t think that’s good news for arthouse and cult cinema.
Things I have watched.
The Crow – less of a remake of the iconic Brandon Lee film and more of a reinvention of the franchise. It’s a good if unengaging film, many of the young adult audience I went to see it with won’t have the original or the comic books as a reference point. It has been described on other parts of the net as ‘the worst movie of the year‘. This is probably a bit unfair; there is a lot of ‘straight to Netflix’ dross out there. FKA Twigs character in the film grew on me as I watched it.
The last time I saw The Terminator in a cinema was in a double bill with the then newly launched Terminator 2 at the then new Odeon multiplex in Bromborough. I got to see it again thanks to a 4K restoration. Despite having seen The Terminator several times on tape, DVD and Blu-Ray – this time it hit different. It hit harder and it was all down the way the screen filled my vision and the punch of the sound track. Despite in-home cinema set-ups, you just can’t get at home unless you live in a large industrial unit sized home. The analogue special effects held up surprisingly well and the plot was just as taunt as I remembered it. There was less people in the cinema than for the screening than for TheCrow.
As I write this, I have just watched episode one of the latest series of Slow Horses. It has gotten off to the high standard set by the previous series and book. Time to put on my Roddy Ho t-shirt again.
Useful tools.
Table Capture
If you’ve ever tried to cut and paste a table and data from a website into an spreadsheet and then spent the rest of the afternoon parsing it in cell-by-cell you will appreciate the benefit of this browser extension.
Humaniser for GPT created content
If you’re reading this, chances are that you’ve used services like Claude, ChatGPT or Gemini as a starting point for copy, or to summarise documents. UndetectableGPT looks at providing alternatives to ‘tell-tale’ phraseology in generative AI copy.
Data analysis
Groupt will take a CSV file and categorise the data including visualisation, so you only have to focus on wrapping a narrative around it to fit into the wider storytelling of your presentation.
The sales pitch.
I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements from January 2025 onwards; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.
Ok this is the end of my September 2024 newsletter, I hope to see you all back here again in a month. Be excellent to each other and onward into October and crispness of a bright autumn morning!
