Category: business | 商業 | 상업 | ビジネス

My interest in business or commercial activity first started when a work friend of my Mum visited our family. She brought a book on commerce which is what business studies would have been called decades earlier. I read the book and that piqued my interest.

At the end of your third year in secondary school you are allowed to pick optional classes that you will take exams in. this is supposed to be something that you’re free to chose.

I was interested in business studies (partly because my friend Joe was doing it). But the school decided that they wanted me to do physics and chemistry instead and they did the same for my advanced level exams because I had done well in the normal level ones. School had a lot to answer for, but fortunately I managed to get back on track with college.

Eventually I finally managed to do pass a foundational course at night school whilst working in industry. I used that to then help me go and study for a degree in marketing.

I work in advertising now. And had previously worked in petrochemicals, plastics and optical fibre manfacture. All of which revolve around business. That’s why you find a business section here on my blog.

Business tends to cover a wide range of sectors that catch my eye over time. Business usually covers sectors that I don’t write about that much, but that have an outside impact on wider economics. So real estate would have been on my radar during the 2008 recession.

  • 2025 – that was twenty twenty five

    2025 started warmer, but windier than normal. I had just published a similar post and had a days break before thinking about drafting 2025 as it happened, how it was seen at the time tends to be missed out when we look back with the benefit of hindsight.

    I haven’t written much about the Trump administration, mainly because everything kept changing, so it wasn’t apparent at the time what was really important. Every day felt like a burning platform.

    January 2025

    Small and medium sized business confidence at new low. Japanese convenience store operator Lawson used offshore workers to help customers via digital avatar. Chinese property developer VANKE CEO was detained to help authorities with their enquiries. VANKE, alongside Country Garden, is one of the better ran companies known for corporate transparency. Meanwhile Guangzhou FC (formerly Guangzhou Evergrande) was ejected from China’s professional football league. Amazon announced UK drone delivery service.

    Zing shutdown

    HSBC shut down their first attempt at competing in the ‘fintech’ space. Zing competed with Wise and Revolut in global money transfers.

    On the eve of the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, the FT highlighted a multi-year decline in digital health investment.

    Investment in digital health

    Circana research found that GLP-1s weren’t responsible for long term sales declines in snacks and other consumer packaged goods sales.

    Rolex raised their prices across their models by 1-to-3 percent. Louis Vuitton revisited its 2003 collaboration with Takashi Murakami. LVMH Watch Week leaned hard into novelties and featured Bvlgari, Daniel Roth, Gérald Genta, Hublot, L’Epée 1839, Louis Vuitton, TAG Heuer, Tiffany & Co. and Zenith.

    Takashi Murakami x Louis Vuitton

    Porsche sales dropped, mostly due to 28% drop in China during 2024. Louis Vuitton launched an early 2000s streetwear throwback for its autumn / winter 2025 collection by Nigo and Pharrell Williams.

    While generation cohorts are no better than horoscopes, they have prominence in marketing discourse; Gen Beta started. Publicis Worldwide & Leo Burnett merged to form Leo. Kellogg’s returned to British TV screens with mascot Cornelius the Cockrel in the ad ‘See you in the morning’.

    Kellogg's Cornelius the Cockerel

    YouGov consumer opinion analysis of the ad was positive with a degree of polarisation.

     51% say that overall, they like the ad, while only 26% disliked it. That’s a good score, you’d expect an average campaign to roughly take 40% like to 20% dislike.

    UK institution, the BBC shipping forecast turned 100. Half of banned UK crypto ads remained online.

    Amount of illegal ads, FCA warned consumers about & number of ads taken down

    The earliest iterations of cartoon characters Popeye and Tintin went into the public domain in the U.S – but his likeness and name is still trademarked. STEM content creator Zara Dar made 3x more revenue per video on Pornhub vs. YouTube.

    State laws based on Louisiana’s Act 440 require age verification for adult entertainment sites. In response, Pornhub’s parent company, Aylo, had blocked access in 20 states. This included Florida, a major centre for porn production. Meta launched machine learning powered accounts, it wasn’t well received. Meta pivoted from fact checking to be more combative with the EU, Brazil and China.

    Some US TikTok users signed up to Chinese Instagram analogue Xiaohongshu in protest to TikTok restrictions.

    TikTok US status screen

    Why did the US take action against TikTok? Rutgers University affiliated research from 2023 was the best public reason given. TikTok returned in one news cycle thanks to President Trump’s patronage.

    TikTok returns

    Donald J. Trump became U.S. president again as typhoon-speed winds drove fires in Los Angeles.

    Palisades Fire

    Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned. Edelman’s trust barometer survey marked new societal nadir with a crisis of grievance.

    Oliviero Toscani, the photographer behind Bennetton’s iconic advertising campaigns and work in the fashion label’s COLORS magazine died.

    “All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights”

    Film director David Lynch died.

    Eraserhead

    Over the past decade ‘children’s cafeterias‘ which offer free or low-cost meals have grown in Japan from a standing start to over 10,000 venues. (Similar to the UK’s food bank expansion.) 2025 saw 1,794 cafeterias open.

    The majority of cafeterias have no age restrictions. Out of an estimated total 18.9 million annual users, 70%, or 13 million, were children while the other 30% (5.9 million) were adults.

    Across Asia and in diaspora communities around the world, the lunar new year was welcomed in on January 29th. In the Chinese horoscope, it was the year of the wood snake.

    Cellular mobile services in UK turn 40. UK government announced improved atomic clock that will help in more precise, jam-proof navigation. CES was all about generative AI. OpenAI continued to lose money on ChatGPT. Irrational exuberance in LLMs deflated by popularity of DeepSeek.

    How January 2025 memed

    Streetwear’s pivot to avant garde all-black influenced by Rick Owens and Raf Simons with dark eye shadow, was popularised by hip-hop and trap artists out of Atlanta. Playboi Carti was associated with the look. The look got a name inspired by Carti’s Opium record label – opiumcore. Jing Daily claimed that gender fluidity and opiumcore looks were going to trend in China luxury and streetwear.

    Raf Simons Redux V

    It’s at odds with Chinese government guidance. They deplatformed ‘excessively feminine’ male models and those who ‘slavishly worship’ western culture. Even opiumcore’s name is problematic.

    February 2025

    Donald Trump tariffs announced against Canada, China and Mexico. Samsung head Lee Jae-yong cleared of fraud and stock manipulation charges. Clothing store Forever21 went bankrupt again. Bybit had $1.5Bn of etherium stolen from its ‘offline’ cold wallet – biggest crypto theft to date. Nike collaborates with Skims. Unilever changes their CEO.

    Robert F Kennedy Jr promised to ‘Make America Healthy Again” or MAHA, crystalised the name of a movement that brought together wellness and the political right.

    Jacquemus sold minority stake to L’Oreal & collaboration on beauty products. Creative directors moved around a lot or as Vogue Business put it ‘endless creative director news’. Breitling looks to resurrect a dead Swiss watch brand. YNAP (Yoox Net-A-Porter) closed its China operation. Rolex closed down the watch manufacturing arm of Carl F Bucherer.

    Language learning company Duolingo, shared their new brand book, which was held up as an example of how to capture a brand’s culture, positioning and market proposition. Liverpool Football Club refreshed their brand identity. R3 published their 2024 new business league table. Key takeaways:

    • Publicis was far-and-away the biggest winner
    • Interpublic lost 500,000 USD in business more than they won, what they won in creative, they lost in media.
    R3 new business rankings 2024

    Fuji TV screens tentpole anime show Sazae-san without sponsorships, an advertising boycott over a sexual assault allegation cover-up. Lidl sold out its TikTok shop debut in 20 minutes. Post-production and video FX business Technicolor shut down.

    Simon Kemp launched this year’s Digital 2025 compendium of global online behaviours. YouTube turned 20 on Valentine’s Day. Cory Doctorow’s Pluralistic turned five.

    David Webb announced plans for the end of his iconic financial website which covered the Hong Kong market. Webb was in the final stages of his battle with cancer. Fiverr launched FiverrGo – a generative AI art-working service.

    Rendezvous with Barbie Hsu

    Taiwanese TV actress Barbie Hsu (pronounced Shu) died aged 48. Hsu was a popular actress across East and South East Asia. The Democratic Party in Hong Kong disbanded.

    HKTaxi – which pioneered taxi-hailing apps in Hong Kong, announced April closure. The Washington Post alleged UK government demanded global backdoor on Apple services. Apple removed protected cloud encryption from UK users. Humane AI has its intellectual property bought by HPE. Humane is shuttered including its AI pin device. Apple launched its iPhone 16e, it featured Apple’s first custom wireless modem. Amazon announced closure of messaging and video app Chime. Promised to continue supporting the Chime SDK, which allows the underlying messaging and video service to be integrated directly into apps. Microsoft announced Skype service closure.

    How February 2025 memed?

    Credit due to Dan Lambden: *LinkedInsincerity (noun)*: A phenomenon observed on LinkedIn characterised by interactions that appear inauthentic, exaggerated, or lacking genuine sincerity.

    These interactions may include overly enthusiastic endorsements, insincere congratulatory messages, and inflated descriptions of professional achievements, often driven by the desire to network or gain visibility rather than foster true professional connections. In essence, LinkedInsincerity represents the façade of professionalism masked by the pursuit of personal gain.

    March 2025

    March started with cold sunny days and the first snowdrops in the park by my house.

    But in comparison to the weather, economic indicators weren’t great. Hong Kong slowed down its retail sales decline. HSBC celebrated the 160th anniversary of its founding.

    HSBC 160years

    Launched in 1953, JCB built their 1,000,000th backhoe loader. Volkswagen announced move away from touchscreen-only car controls. AstraZeneca bought cell therapy company esoBiotec. 23andMe declared bankrupt.

    Going upmarket, Moët & Chandon & Pharrell Williams collaborated on a €30,000 limited edition champagne bottle. It was to demonstrate ‘ collective spirit, optimism and human connection’. Lewis Hamilton became a Lulu Lemon ambassador. Willy Chavarria collaborated with Tinder on a small collection with the theme ‘How we love is who we are’. Rolex opened London flagship managed by Watches of Switzerland. Maker’s Mark launched Fielden Rye whisky – their first new recipe in 70 years.

    Starbucks launched a collaboration with Snoopy to reboot sales.

    In media, Sesame Street started shooting its 56th season. But had no distribution partner in place. Yahoo! sold TechCrunch to private equity buyer. The Federal Trade Commission looked into Omnicom’s takeover of Interpublic. Apple loses $1 billion / year on streaming. Medical drama Grey’s Anatomy turns 20 years old. The Grateful Dead celebrated their 60th anniversary with a 60 CD boxset Enjoying The Ride featured live sets recorded from 1969 to 1994.

    In online, old was gold as Yahoo! turned 30 and has enjoyed a mild comeback. (Disclosure, I worked there earlier on in my career.) Digg relaunch announced. Discord planned for IPO.

    Manus, a Chinese ‘general AI agent’ launched beta release that outperformed OpenAI. Deliveroo announced plan to exit Hong Kong operations in April.

    Mobile World Congress saw Xiaomi & Realme show concept smartphones with detachable lens. Apple delayed more personalised aspects of Siri in its Apple Intelligence rollout. Alphabet bought security start-up Wiz for $32Bn. Microsoft turned 50 years old. Oracle systems were breached and health records stolen.

    In other news, Japan marked 30 years since the Tokyo subway sarin attacks. Author and former KGB officer Oleg Gordievsky died. Irish crime fiction author Ken Bruen died.

    How March 2025 memed?

    Geopolitical disruption: The Daily Star is a UK tabloid newspaper with a right of centre, populist editorial voice. It would be a natural ally of the Trump administration; yet the headline on front page of the paper was ‘JD Dunce‘ on the March 5th, edition.

    UK perceptions of US

    Research firm YouGov showed a sharp decline in how UK people saw the US.

    April 2025

    The end of March 2025 was the height of sakura season in Japan and in the UK. The sun greeted the start of April, so did the Trump administration with global tariffs in ‘Liberation Day‘ announcement.

    Liberation day social media post.

    Another thing went up in the US as well as tariffs, preventable disease-related deaths. Pertussis (whooping cough) and measles increased in US compared to last year. Pertussis infections doubled, measles infections grew even more. Spain and Portugal suffered countrywide electricity blackouts.

    The US National Science Foundation got rid of most external advisory panels and the FDA announced move to phase out animal testing.

    On a lighter note another thing going viral was pistachio cream filled chocolate.

    At Watches & Wonders, Rolex launched the Land Dweller, a watch design that is similar in concept to the Oysterquartz, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and the Vacheron Constantine Overseas. Just as important was the new high-beat movement design rolled out in the Land Dweller. Prada bought Versace. LVMH fashion and leather goods sales fell 5% year-on-year. Added to luxury sector woes were Chinese factories claiming to offer consumers better deals on luxury goods by going direct. One bright note – Highsnobriety found that 40% of American respondents found that sustainable fashion was fashionable. This compared to just 25% of young people (gen-z) globally.

    Advertising Week Europe was held in London. Key topics of discussion included retail media and connected TV from Uber, Carwow and Disney. Adobe provided generative AI designed conference bags. UK marketing spend fell for first time in four years. Hostess Brands became first mainstream brand to promote their products on April 20th – informally 4.20 day that celebrated cannabis use. McVities celebrated the 100th anniversary of the chocolate digestive and Wired magazine celebrated the 30th anniversary of its original website.

    Bluesky announced its plans to verify accounts. Nike sued over the closure of its NFT business.

    In other news, it was 50 years since the end of the Vietnam war. Reggae star Max Romeo died in Jamaica, Pope Francis died in Rome and it was the 100th anniversary of The Great Gatsby by F Scott Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald’s ending to the novel was widely quoted and captured the zeitgeist of April 2025 well.

    “They were careless people . . . they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

    I had started a project engagement at Google. This was 20 years to the day when I started my in-house gig at Yahoo! less “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” more “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.

    The Apple iPad turned 15 and AirTags turned 4 years old.

    How April 2025 memed?

    Worker at Seagate tests drives

    An article in WARC captured April’s mood for me with the acronym VUCA. The phrase has its origin in the US Army War College during the mid-1980s, who were looking to describe a post-cold war scenario.

    • Volatility: Rapid significant change with little to no warning as to the size of change.
    • Uncertainty: Unclear outcomes as are the causes.
    • Complexity: Multiple factors in play with complex inter-related aspects to them which makes finding a way forward challenging.
    • Ambiguity: the information that is available is open to misinterpretation.

    May 2025

    May started with the warmest day of the year, 26 celsius in London.

    Warren Buffett announced plan to retire from Berkshire Hathaway. The UK and US outline shape of a limited trade agreement. The CIA launched a high production value ad campaign on western social media to recruit Chinese agents.

    CIA China advert

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer celebrated 20 years of his Mad Money show. While 2024 was was the year of semaglutide, Novo Nordisk seemed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It was still a surprise when Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepped down as CEO. Unilever discovered a correlation between a particular type of skin microbiome bacteria and positive mental health measures. Consumer DNA testing company 23andMe was sold to Regeneron.

    Alex Mashinsky sentenced to 12 years for fraud related to 2023 collapse of cryptocurrency business Celsius.

    Monocle announced a new book shop and café in Paris. Business Insider laid off over 20% of staff and announced shift to AI. Amazon announced Prime Day to be held in July and did its first brand refresh in two decades. Google refreshed the big G icon. Mozilla announced closure of bookmarking service Pocket. Wikipedia took five years to go from six million articles to seven million around May 28, 2025. DoorDash agreed to buy Deliveroo. Hong Kong congee restaurant chain Ocean Empire closed down abruptly. Nutella announced a new peanut-based variant.

    Dior Couture admitted a successful cyber attack. US telecoms company Charter announced it was buying Cox Communications.

    Political scientist Joseph Nye died. Nye was famous for Soft Power: The Means To Success In World Politics.

    Chart of the month for May 2025

    McDonald’s Restaurants saw a decline in sales. This was down to low income consumers spending less, while middle class earners still weren’t going into McDonalds. Normally when there is a recession, McDonalds should benefit from the more well-off trading down to McDonalds. Instead, fortunes have diverged into a ‘k-shaped’ recession. Lower income earners are hit, while middle classes aren’t. What Axios called the ‘McRecession‘.

    McDonald's quarterly sales growth

    How May 2025 memed?

    The conclave to select a new Pope shined a light on all things Vatican related. President Trump got in on the act via his social media feed. Robert Provost was elected pope in a relatively fast conclave. His election surprised prediction markets. Recent film Conclave became a must-watch film as it was a good guide to the process of electing a new Pope.

    Pope Donald

    June 2025

    June started with changeable spring-like weather with rain from London to Tokyo. The UK government published its Strategic Defence Review. A Ukrainian operation destroyed Russian aircraft deep inside Russia using small drones concealed in containers. Israel launched attacks on Iran.

    HMX_0289

    CEO Mark Read announced he was leaving WPP at end of 2025. Apple’s ‘Shot on an iPhone’ campaign won at Cannes. Apple launched a new ‘shot on an iPhone’ film featuring Stormzy.

    Stormzy Apple shot on an iPhone film

    US Vogue editor Anna Wintour moved to more hands-off role as chief content officer at Condé Nast.

    Unilever bought ‘chemical-free’ direct-to-consumer men’s personal care brand Dr Squatch for $1.5Bn. UK discounter Poundland was sold for a pound.

    Hong Kong legalised basketball betting by Hong Kong Jockey Club. This will attract mainland gamblers where basketball has a huge following in comparison to soccer or horse racing. Asian currency arbitrage opportunity indicated a problem in US finances.

    Bill Atkinson who was part of the original Mac and General Magic teams died, as did soundtrack composer Lalo Schifrin.

    Meanwhile Apple’s WWDC felt like Mac-orientated conferences of years long past. AI was sprinkled in features with a focus on on-device AI models. Oakley and Meta collaborated on smart glasses. Flickr roles out creative commons 4, giving creators greater control over their image rights.

    Chart of the month June 2025

    Podcast advertising showed signs of maturing with slowing growth according to WARC.

    Global podcast ad spend growth

    How June 2025 memed? – TACO

    The FT popularised TACO

    From US foreign policy to trade negotiations the TACO trade dominated. TACO was shorthand for ‘Trump always chickens out’ – markets bet against the Trump administration’s commitment to a course of action – which starts to become a dangerous bet to make when this viewpoint becomes sufficiently visible. Operation Midnight Hammer being the exception that proved the rule.

    July 2025

    July started off with a heatwave. The Big, Beautiful bill passed in the US senate and congress. In the UK, on of the biggest things that happened in 2025 was that 16 and 17 year olds got the right to vote. The Communist Party of China turned 104, the United States celebrated its 250th anniversary of its founding. It was the 40th anniversary of Live Aid – so Live Aid was the equivalent distance in time from us to what the end of the second world war was to Live Aid.

    Perplexity AI touted a nascent advertising offering around media agencies. Chinese multi-modal AI model Kimi launched. One of the more interesting aspects was the ability to upload up to 50 documents for reference. But it didn’t deliver as well as promised, I will let the Web Curios newsletter tell you the rest:

    …when I played with it earlier this week it quickly became apparent that this is a mendacious little fcuk and will spit out completely-invented material with a glee unmatched by any of the actual, paid-for, top-end models; as such I can only recommend it as a fun thing to poke around with rather than a free alternative to the big players. 

    Apple supported the cinema launch of its film F1, with a haptic trailer, which used the vibrating motor on the smartphone alongside the speakers. The film did well at the cinema, so Apple bid for formula 1 streaming rights in the US.

    Haptic trailer for F1 The Movie

    K-pop band BTS announced return with news music and global tour. The Observer laid bare lies and deceit behind bestseller The Salt Path. Media executive Linda Yaccarino resigned from Twitter (X).

    Jimmy Swaggart - God Took Away My Yesterdays

    American celebrity and televangelist Jimmy Swaggart died, alongside long-time DJ producer Eamon ‘Ame’ Downes and former Conservative Party politician Norman Tebbit.

    How July 2025 memed?

    In the same way that in the mid-1990s onwards to 2000, the internet became part of culture as much as a technology people used, AI has been having a similar movement since 2023 onwards. When you combine AI with highly memetic training content and accidents ensue, so it was with Grok AI becoming ‘Mechahitler‘ and edgelords around the world rejoiced in their childhood bedroom or parent’s basement. Grok is considered to be an AI without a ‘woke ideology’.

    Wolfenstein

    Grok didn’t magic the name ‘Mechahitler’ out of thin air, it is a character from the Wolfenstein series of games based on various alternative history scenarios of world war two. It’s emulated by cosplayers and a film had been in development for over a decade.

    Mechahitler as a meme beat out BURRITO – Bold Unilateral Retaliation Regardless of Inflation Trade or Order, which came from the TBOY podcast.

    August 2025

    July bowed out wetter and cooler than much of the month and August opened with winds that made it feel more like spring. It was the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the 250th anniversary of Daniel O’Connell. Indonesians protested their government by flying the pirate flag from manga and anime franchise One Piece.

    Panasonic launched an AI-enabled rice cooker in Japan to help deal with the ongoing ‘rice crisis’.

    Vogue saw an online backlash against its first AI model photo shoot. A French livestreamer died live on broadcast – in a manner eerily reminiscent of the David Cronenberg’s Videodrome.

    Adidas launched a collaborative sneaker with Lufthansa. The Ford Transit celebrated its 60th birthday. Nike leans into its ACG technical outdoor brand to drive growth. Seiko celebrated 60 years of making dive watches in a low-key manner with enthusiasts. McDonald’s in Thailand allegedly demanded damages and fired a restaurant manager for having previously been a go-go dancer – who was pictured on her former bar’s social media. It wasn’t clear if it was a franchisee or the Thai McDonald’s partner McThai Co. Ltd who was involved.

    Video effects production house Glassworks closed down. The UK CMA approved Omnicom‘s acquisition of IPG. As the deal went through approvals IPG’s business performance worsened. WPP outlined its vision for an ‘AI-empowered agency‘.

    Intel CEO was asked to resign by The White House because of his ‘connections‘ to China. Later on the US government takes a stake in Intel. The Pakistani energy sector suffered from renewed cyber attacks.

    https://flic.kr/p/2rmo6o8

    NASA Jim Lovell who was famous for being part of Project Apollo died.

    How August 2025 memed?

    meme

    In the same way that Che Guevara was a touchstone for rebellion against established authority in the 20th century – the internet has found its own icon. Ibrahim Traore is a coup leader and Burkinese army officer. Traore has become famous beyond the Francophone region, becoming an icon for protestors from Micronesia to the New Zealand Parliament.

    September 2025

    Autumn weather started in the last week of August, with the rain arriving too late to help out arable farmers in the home counties.

    China, Russia and India met as part of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).

    Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi met H.E. Mr. Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in Tianjin, China

    China and Russia sign an initial agreement to develop a new high capacity gas line called Spirit of Siberia 2. Oracle’s Larry Ellison becomes the world’s richest man.

    Unilever discovers that microbiome not only affects health, but also aging in a beauty context. Novo Nordisk lost the market for GLP1 agonists to Eli Lilly, 9000 Novo Nordisk employees paid the price. Games Workshop allegedly withdrew Ukrainian language materials in apparent support of Russia. Luxury multi-brand retailer Ssense reorganises as part of its bankruptcy proceedings. Arc’teryx staged a stunt in Tibet that was universally panned.

    ITV celebrated its 70th birthday. Long time online blogging service Typepad closed down. Online news aggregator Techmeme turned 20. Google Docs turns 20 and Google Chrome browser market share exceeds 70 percent. AOL discontinued dial-up internet services in the US and Canada and was put up for sale for $1.5 billion. That’s still less than $1.50 for every disk and CD that AOL ever sent out to consumers in the US and Europe. The UK security services launched the Silent Courier portal to aid leaks by Russian and Chinese sources. Mastodon launched new services for corporates and marketers. Specialist interest online video networks Playeur and History of Weapons and War (think History Channel meets YouTube documentaries) both closed down, subscription based video platforms are hard.

    Apple continued to lose key engineers to Meta and launch iPhones. Training LLMs sloppily in one aspect of their roles can make their behaviour malicious in other areas. Chinese company makes world’s fastest production car.

    Concerns about an AI bubble started to show up in rate of change in search volume.

    Change of search volume by week in 2025 for AI bubble

    In the face of smartphone bans, American school children dug out iPods, Discmans and Walkmans to still have music while they study or just hang out in class. The UK government tested its emergency alerts system prompting a siren sound and this screen shots on smartphones across the country. There was no corresponding SMS text message to feature phones.

    Ron Carroll, a Chicago-based singer, producer songwriter died leaving a body of house music behind. Italian film actress Claudia Cardinale died, she was famous for Fellini’s 8 1/2 and Leone’s Once Upon a Time In The West. Giorgio Armani died a week after his last interview with the FT was published. Robert Redford died aged 89, a day after the FT wrote a style article about the tweed blazer he wore in Three Days of The Condor. It didn’t take long for some wags to talk about the ‘curse of the FT’. Yahoo! News covered off Redford’s ‘role‘ in the nod of approval GIF, which made me a bit sad, given for many people that clip of Jeremiah Johnson was all they’d seen of his career as an actor / director.

    Robert Redford

    How September 2025 memed?

    St Georges cross.

    Operation ‘Raise The Colours’ saw St George’s flags spring up across England from homes and lamp posts to painted roundabouts. Whilst many of the displays were well meaning, the initative was apparently driven by far right groups. This seemed to be designed to build momentum for a Tommy Robinson rally in London.

    October 2025

    There was a downpour overnight as September rolled into October. The Labour Party conference had finished, leader Kier Starmer had historically low approval ratings. Storm Amy hit the UK that weekend. Britain lost control of its borders. Data analysed by David Webb showed that Hong Kong had a revenue problem from tax avoidance / evasion of tobacco products. The cause was less clear, it may be cross-border shopping trips, smuggling gangs or more likely both. Webb’s website was shut down on Hallowe’en.

    Barclays bought US consumer loans business Fresh Egg.

    The FT claimed that the UK government demanded a backdoor to British user data. The Labour Party conference had finished. Ireland elected a new president in a process marred by a large amount of spoiled votes and low turnout. Scandal dogged Labour decision to abandon China spy case – or as former British ambassador with Chinese experience put it ‘appeasement’ and a ‘masterclass in ineptitude’. Chinese conglomerate BYD sells record number of electric cars in UK as Jaguar Land Rover flounders from cyberattack by suspected ‘state actor‘. Mercedes Vision Iconic concept car unveiled in Shanghai, looked like the vehicle the relaunched Jaguar brand would want to build. The grill design mimicked a vintage Mercedes 600 ‘Grosser’ and was a world away from the current nadir of the car brand.

    Mercedes Benz Vision Iconic

    Apple released upgrades of three products with its M5 processor. LVMH offered hope of business growth. Adidas unveiled its football for the next world cup called Trionda which looked like a shanzhai Poké Ball (used for catching and storing Pokemon). Toyota won its ninth manufacturers championship competing in the FIA WRC (world rally championship). 2025 marked their fourth back-to-back championship win.

    Indonesia blocked TikTok and then unblocked it when the platform provided user information. Analytics suggested the world usage of social media may have peaked. Amazon hit 200 million US shoppers using Prime. Alphabet celebrated the 25th anniversary of Google Ads.

    OpenAI had teething troubles while developing a new consumer hardware product, and seemingly does deals with everyone for $1 trillion+ of infrastructure – by mid-October it’s easier to list who they hadn’t done a deal with. By the end of October, OpenAI announced for-profit business. Concerns about an AI economic bubble became mainstream. EU looked to promote AI digital sovereignty. Amazon Web Services had an outage, Gigabrain announced the shutdown of their Reddit search tool and pivot to Aire AI video. NHS announced major productivity benefits from Microsoft Copilot trial.

    Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar criticised Jensen Huang and Nvidia (at the head of a vanguard of large American multinationals) on their continued investment in China. The title was subsequently changed on the digital edition of the op-ed in the Wall Street Journal to a more generic ‘Why the China Doves Are Wrong.’

    Palantir calls out Jensen Huang and Nvidia alongside a lot of corporate America

    Qualcomm announced AI chips and first client.

    The IPA publishes two pieces of important research. Balance efficiency and effectiveness or risk a marketing ‘death spiral’ – great piece of work by Les Binet and Will Davis that reinforces the message behind The Long And The Short of It. Beyond engagement – understanding influencer payback revealed some of the benefits and pitfalls in conducting paid influencer campaigns. Though some of the more interesting findings were in the details, including the unpredictability of influencer campaign success.

    Actress and director Diane Keaton died leaving behind a diverse body of film and TV work. I thought her role in The Little Drummer Girl is her most underrated performance.

    How October 2025 memed?

    My favourite one of the five ‘core’ trends Jing Daily on Chinese social media ‘fits’ was goblincore.

    goblincore

    The name tells you everything that you need to know. The looks seems to be inspired by video games and cosplay that borrows heavily from Tolkien, who in turn borrowed from European folklore.

    Escapism with a hint of darkness made a good deal of sense in a time of high youth unemployment, economic uncertainty and technological upheaval in China.

    November 2025

    The end of October was wet and blustery. The Economist came out and said that western government debt was at levels unseen since Napoleonic times. Donald Trump threatened to sue BBC. Vaping overtook smoking in the UK. Starbucks sold the majority of its China operations to a local private equity investor. Sony launched a cheaper Japan-only Playstation 5. Funko announced that it would struggle to continue as a going concern due to its high debt level. Celebrations for the 85th anniversary of Bruce Lee got underway.

    Palantir had great sales results, but spooked investors. Microsoft admitted that its efforts to build out computing power for LLMs was limited by access to data centre electrical power.

    Some of the major studios in the porn industry including Aylo who runs Pornhub came together to establish a code of conduct. Why now? China’s equivalent to Grindr have been withdrawn from local app stores.

    Shein keelhauled by the French government due to it selling ‘child like’ sex dolls online. Israel gets rid of Chinese cars in its vehicle fleet as it can’t the vehicles against espionage. An executive at L3Harris was jailed for selling secrets to the Russians. BYD announced UK launch date for Porsche 911 rival.

    RTÉ announced a new daytime line-up for its week day daytime programming on RTÉ Radio 1 to take it through the end of 2025 onwards. Christmas advertising arrived even earlier than last year. WARC claim that advertisers were following consumers who were starting Christmas shopping research earlier. John Lewis’ effort seemed to be a ‘homage’ to the imagery of Charlotte Wells’ film Aftersun. Nick Asbury wrote the best (all be it over the top) analysis of the advert.

    Early research on generative AI produced ad creative had lessons on the best approaches to get effective creative. IPG UK revenue dropped 8.4% quarter-on-quarter in advance of its purchase by Omnicom. Omnicom completed purchase of IPG, a critic described the deal as ‘two drunks leaning on a lamp post‘.

    Nigo’s streetwear brand Human Made listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

    Private equity company Vista claimed job cuts were due to AI automating tasks. One in five UK companies expected to follow Vista’s example in 2026. Law firm Clifford Chance let go of 10% of back office staff due to automation and offshoring.

    Wang Fuk Court in Tai Po caught fire with the flames spreading from tower-to-tower. The whole of Hong Kong went into mourning. At least 146 people lost their lives. The Chinese government was concerned that the tragedy might spark protests.

    How November 2025 memed?

    67

    6-7 featured ambiguously on a rap track and was then picked up by teens to mean everything and nothing.

    December 2025

    The US government published their 2025 National Security Strategy on The Whitehouse website. December started off with rain and Omnicom-IPG related firings playing out in near real-time on Reddit. The share price was up 0.14% by the close of the market in New York. More job cuts were expected as Omnicom hadn’t reorganised its own portfolio of agencies. A presentation that captured the zeitgeist of social media marketing for 2025 was published.

    FDD_3546

    Jimmy Lai, who founded Giordano and The Apple Daily was convicted on two counts of conspiracy to collude with foreign powers and one count of conspiracy to publish seditious materials. The UK government response was weak, the US one slightly stronger.

    UK consumer spending dropped at fastest rate in four years. UK arms of discount supermarket brands Aldi and Lidl sold Christmas vegetables including brussels sprouts, turnips, carrots, parsnips and potatoes for 8 pence / bag, (or 84 – 94% discount).

    WARC has research to show that global advertising spend is growing faster than the economy – but that incremental gain is accruing only to the major online platforms.

    Global incremental ad spend

    Prada closes its acquisition of Versace. Nike announced more changes in the boardroom. Superdry and Nike got called out for greenwashing claims. Toyota launched the GR GT sports car. Unilever ice cream spin-out ousted independent board chairwoman of Ben & Jerry’s.

    Mistral launches new open weight models. Jim Chanos went public on shorting Nvidia stock. Disney did a deal with OpenAI.

    Netflix moved forward with a $72 billion bid for Warner Studios and HBO Max. Paramount intervened. Vanity Fair ran a tell-all interview with The White House chief-of-staff. President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the BBC moved forward.

    Facebook sunset Messenger apps for Windows and macOS. PayPal applied to become a bank. The Pax Silica Declaration was signed by nine nations—the United States, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Australia to bolster the semiconductor supply chain from Chinese pressure.

    How 2025 memed?

    The camera follows us in slow-mo

    YouTuber This is Antwon nailed in his description of the year as The Slop Era to capture how generative AI had captured culture in a similar manner to all things internet in culture from about 1994 onwards as the dotcom era kicked off through to the millennial bust.

    404 Media discussed the phenomenon at SxSW, specifically why slop content happens.

    Much of it was created by more technically-oriented people in the Philippines, the Middle East or South Asia who were looking to go viral. The reason why they did it was not to become famous per se but to gain vitality and get paid by Facebook’s creator programme.

    In essence, the slop wasn’t for you or me, but designed to directly target the algorithm and then the creator gets a small share of the subsequent ad revenue. The model worked as a side hustle only because venture-backed AI models are providing a surplus of free tokens to these creators through farmed trial accounts.

    By October, ‘AI slop’ was used as a pejorative for any artwork developed with the help of generative AI including a large public art mural in Chicago.

    The FT worried about what it was doing to our online experience and work lives.

    The people that made 2025

    The most important part of this recollection of 2025, the people I am thankful for (and to) this year including: Ivana Bivolarova, Graeme Brimmer, Megi Cane, Rosa Chak, Matt Charman, Adrian Cockle, Robin Dhara, Waleed Elgindy, Harry Fowler, Tom Gogan, Haruka Ikezawa, Sarath Koka, Matthew Knight, Valia Koleva, Argyro Kyriakidou Wilson, Sarah Lafferty, Dawn Lee, Rupesh Limbachia, Karen Lo, Lee Menzies-Pearson, Nick Moffat, Fiona Ong, Muhminah Raees, David Shearer, Inas Sid, Angeline Velasco, Nadège Verboon, Calvin Wong & Noel Wong.

    The sales pitch.

    I have finished my strategy engagement at Google’s internal creative agency and am now taking bookings for strategic engagements. I can start immediately – keep me in mind; or get in touch for discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    now taking bookings

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy

    The End.

    Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.

    Now on Substack as well as on LinkedIn.

  • 2025 NSS (national security strategy)

    I read the 2025 US National Security Strategy (NSS) so you don’t have to when it came out at the end of November 2025. What’s interesting about these NSS documents is that they set a tone that will be difficult to turn around over the next five to ten years.

    2025-National-Security-Strategy

    I have taken the document at face value as it mirrors many of the talking points of US politicians. I have looked at the document through three lens:

    • Ireland
    • European Union
    • UK

    (I live in the UK, I am an Irish citizen and Ireland is part of the European Union).

    Some of its key European diagnostics are accurate (but could be also said of the US):

    • Declining birth rates
    • Uncontrolled migration (the authors consider African and muslim migrants to Europe particularly problematic)
    • Economic stagnation (the US is in a similar place outside of the top performers of the NASDAQ)
    • Deindustrialisation (again a problem that is repeated in the US)

    The recently released NSS from the Trump administration represents a an end to an American-led west. It replaces “collective security” with ‘transactional realism’ and targets the European Union’s current political trajectory as a ‘civilisational realignment’. By comparison Russia makes little to no appearance in the document and China is considered mostly in terms of economic power rivalry. 

    While the US has declared victory in major conflicts via aggressive unilateralism, it now seeks to  dismantle “globalist” structures. For Ireland, the UK, and the EU, all are now facing challenges from the US as well as Russia, China and Iran.

    European impact

    The NSS outlines four pillars that directly impact transatlantic relationships:

    • The US views NATO as a burden-sharing network, not a permanent umbrella, and explicitly threatens to withhold support from “free-riders”.
    • “Reindustrialization” is the highest priority. The US will use tariffs to force supply chains home. it considers net zero efforts as an economic suicide act.
    • The US will bypass EU institutions to cultivate relationships with rightwing populist parties. It views Western Europe’s current migration and social policies as “civilizational erasure”.
    • A re-assertion of the Monroe Doctrine. The US claims total dominance over the Western Hemisphere and warns European powers against interfering there.

    Impact & Mitigation Strategies

    🇮🇪 For Ireland

    • The NSS explicitly mentions a “sentimental attachment” to Ireland. Dublin must ruthlessly exploit this cultural link to secure exemptions from new tariffs, bypassing Brussels where necessary.
    • Reframe Ireland not as an offshore tax hub, but as a ‘secure node’ in the American supply chain. Emphasise that Irish pharma is safer than Asian alternatives and relies on highly-skilled professionals.
    • Ireland’s military neutrality is a liability in this document. it isn’t in a defence agreement with the US and he country can’t meet the 5% spending target that the US expects of ‘allies’. Instead, it must heavily invest in cybersecurity and transatlantic cable protection, framing this as its contribution to “collective security” without violating neutrality.
    • Ireland needs to plan, which would take longer to execute; to have a version of Singapore’s poison pill or pufferfish defence strategy. But this would be adapted for Ireland’s own context and needs in order to maintain its neutrality and sovereignty. 

    🇬🇧 For the United Kingdom

    The US questions whether demographic changes in the UK will make it an ally in the future. However, the UK is better positioned than the EU to pivot.

    • The NSS seeks “fair, reciprocal trade deals”. The UK should prioritise a bilateral Free Trade Agreement, offering alignment on US export controls (especially regarding China) in exchange for market access.
    • The UK cannot afford 5% GDP on defence immediately, but it can get closer than the EU. An option would be to position itself as the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” and the primary partner for the US “Golden Dome” missile defence project, solidifying the special relationship through technology transfer rather than just troop numbers.
    • The US Administration hates “regulatory suffocation”. The UK can aggressively deregulate its financial and tech sectors to mirror the US model, making it the preferred “docking station” for US capital in Europe.
    • Longer term the UK needs to de-risk critical parts of its economy from the US, and work with other European nations to think about what it would do to have a successful a non-US NATO if the NSS document goes to its natural conclusion.

    🇪🇺 For the European Union

    The Threat: The document is openly hostile to the EU project, viewing it as a mechanism that “undermines political liberty”. It seeks to encourage internal dissent by supporting right wing populist “patriotic parties”. The 5% defense target is designed to break the current European social contract model.

    • The 5% demand is likely a negotiating tactic to force 3% or 3.5%. The EU must immediately announce a massive, coordinated purchase of American military hardware at least in the short term, (while investing in European, friend-shored (Australian, Canadian, Korean, Japanese, Singaporean and Turkish) substitutive systems in the longer term.) The short term move buys tactical goodwill and addresses the immediate capability gap.
    • The US priority is winning the economic war with China. The EU has some leverage if it aligns 100% with US export controls and sanctions on Beijing. Brussels must trade access to the Chinese market for security guarantees from Washington in the short term.
    • The NSS attacks Europe’s “radical gender ideology” and “Net Zero” focus. (The origins of these beliefs are actually American in nature, a nuance the NSS authors fail to appreciate). To maintain relations, the EU Commission may need to de-politicise trade talks in the short-term, with a view to de-risking in the longer term. The short term trade focus purely on transactional economics and dropping social/climate conditionality in dealings with the US.

    Summary

    The 2025 NSS is a US roadmap for a post-European world.

    • Don’t appeal to “shared values” or “international law.” The NSS explicitly rejects “idealistic” foreign policy.
    • Offer concrete, transactional benefits: secure supply chains, purchase orders for US weapons, and alignment against China.
    • Move towards a European and friend-shored defence procurement and sustainment over the longer term, as the US may no longer be the arsenal of democracy in the future, if you take the NSS at face value. 
    • Plan to replace specialist US systems over time as access and replenishment may diminish and have processes to takeover NATO governance in the absence of American leadership.

    You can find the US National Security Strategy here.

  • November 2025 issue 28

    November 2025 introduction – (28) in a state edition

    I am now at issue 28, or as a bingo caller would put it ‘in a state’. In a state or in a right state usually carried a sense of trepidation in Irish households – it usually describes an odd emotion exhibited by the person being discussed.

    In a state

    It is often associated with stupor, shock, chaos, agitation or anxiety.

    “There was a car crash just up the road; thankfully no one was injured but the driver was in a state.”

    It could also be used as a tone of disapproval for a person’s grooming and outfit.

    In Cantonese 28 has positive connotations and is interpreted as “easy to be rich” or “easy prosperity”. The pronunciation of ‘2’ (yi) sounds like ‘easy’ and ‘8’ (ba) sounds like ‘prosper’ (fa).

    This edition’s soundtrack is from The Hideout, a former boutique that used to be based in Golden Square and specialised in Japanese streetwear brands like Neighborhood, A Bathing Ape, WTAPs etc. Each Christmas time they used to have this mixtape put together by Andrew Hale on heavy rotation. Since then it’s become a seasonal go to in Chez Carroll.

    ( Hale played keyboards for Sade. He was a member of Japanese experimental supergroup Water Melon (ウォーター・メロン) alongside Gota Yashiki, KUDO, Toshio Nakanishi aka Tycoon To$h, and provided soundtracks for computer games and films.) Ok, I will stop nerding out now.

    Now we have a sound track, let’s get into it. 

    New reader?

    If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here

    SO

    Things I’ve written.

    • Mico + more things – Mircrosoft’s AI companion has a bit of Clippy and a bit of Willo the Wisp (who was the brand character of British Gas) to it. But as a fluent object it’s not bad.
    • Sixt Halloween ad + more stuff – a selection of great creative from Anthropic, Sixt, Apple and Life 360.
    • Toyota FJ Land Cruiser + more stuff – Toyota’s genius move to launch a smaller footprint Land Cruiser with fantastic utilitarian details in the design. The downside is that we are unlikely to see any of them in the UK.

    Books that I have read.

    • I have been reading my Dad’s copies of Gerald Seymour’s books back when I was a child. My friend Ian introduced me to his later works and character Jonas Merrick. Crocodile Hunter explains the back story why a caravan-loving middle-aged ‘underachieving’ MI5 officer had been given so much latitude. Merrick then becomes the metaphorical crocodile hunter of the title in a game of wits with an experienced veteran of the Syrian civil war and Iraq conflicts in the environs of Canterbury.
    • 1929: The Inside Story of The Greatest Crash in Wall Street History by Andrew Ross Sorkin was a decade in the writing following on from his previous book Too Big To Fail about the 2008 financial crisis. Sorkin makes the story readable despite the book being chunky enough to be a door stop. He does so by telling the stories of the individuals involved. In doing so he also challenges many of our learned assumptions about the crisis. The timing of its release while concerns turn towards an AI driven stock market bubble gives it addition relevance.
    • As I was reading this article in the FT How this 31-year-old made $250mn in 30 months | FT – oil trading with Russian oil. A few things crossed my mind. Amongst them being that it sounded like a pitch for prospective series two of McMafia. Will the protagonist fall out of a window from a Moscow skyscraper?

    Things I have been inspired by.

    I managed to spend some time with my long time colleague Calvin Wong on a stopover before he headed to Portugal for Web Summit.

    It might be merely a rationalisation of my own biases, after the later part of the 2010s being a lull in the creative web. 2025 seems to be spawning more creative things built on the web. My current favourite is Radiooooo shocking brand name, but an amazing site. You can navigate a map of the world, click on a country and listen to music from that country. Not only that but can select whether you are open to fast, slow tempo songs or ‘weird’. My current favourites are Japanese, Thai and Cambodian pop of the 1960s.

    The Impact of Visual Generative AI on Advertising Effectiveness by Hyesoo Lee, Vilma Todri, Panagiotis Adamopoulos & Anindya Ghose is an early piece of research on the effectiveness of generative AI created visual adverts. The research had a number of findings:

    • When visual gen AI was used to modify existing ads originally created by human experts, its performance fell short of the original ads.
    • When visual gen AI was used to create ads from scratch, those ads outperformed both the human expert–created and gen AI-modified ads.
    • When everything including the product package created by gen AI in the advertisement was associated with higher ad effectiveness.
    • But consumers still aren’t fans, when gen AI involvement in ad generation is disclosed, advertisement effectiveness decreases. Disclosure is becoming a legal requirement in many markets and cramping ad effectiveness.

    These oddities could be down to how well their models performed with modified prompts, rather than a repudiation of human effort. And all of these nuances are likely to change as models are improved. This doesn’t mean that generative AI is the best advertising and packaging designers. But it does depend a lot on the aesthetic / taste of the human prompter even more.

    Verity Relationship Intelligence newly released annual report for 2025 highlighted a number of interesting take-outs from its research. The things that stood out to me were:

    • 20% growth every year since 2021 for client complaints about efficiency.
    • 58% of what clients link efficiency to is non-operational. Efficiency,
      is a partnership quality rather than a production metric – kind of like the idea of synchronicity. Increasing ‘juniorisation’ of teams, hybrid working, and smaller budgets have created an operational squeeze, while automation and rigid systems stripped back the human touch that clients value most.
    • The chasm opening up between rising client satisfaction (currently 8.0) and declining team satisfaction (7.3) in their agency team threatens work quality, client retention and employee churn. The problems stem from agency culture: little agency leadership, recognition or care.

    Chart of the month. 

    Ipsos did a 30-country survey to answer the question ‘Is Life Getting Better? comparing attitudes to 1975 versus 2025. Nostalgia is a great standby for trend reports as the past is constantly been repackaged.

    What the Ipsos report hints at is widespread dissatisfaction with current political and economic systems in Europe, Latin America, North America, South Africa and many Asian countries. Part of this maybe down to what Ipsos termed ‘the middle class in crisis‘. The contrary outlier was South Korea.

    As tough as the Korean economy is now, the country has made a huge step change over the past five decades: shaking off a military dictatorship and undergoing massive economic development.

    ipsos nostalgia

    The UK’s intense desire for nostalgia hints at a wider unease, what The New Statesman called the Netflixification of politics.

    Things I have watched. 

    Apple TV+ have followed up Slow Horses this season with a second adaptation of a Mick Herron novel Down Cemetery Road. Emma Thompson is the protagonist unearthing a very British conspiracy bought about by a suspicious fire and abducted child in Oxford. It is made to the same high standard as Slow Horses and I have found it to be must-see TV.

    Dominic Cooper plays a blinder in Apple TV+ series The Last Frontier. The tangled storyline of conspiracy, paranoia and secrets reminded me of vintage TV series like 24 and The X Files. What separates The Last Frontier is the detail, its scenic shots of an Alaskan winter are beautiful.

    Useful tools.

    Koolyz is a directory / portal of online tools that I found via Matt Muir’s excellent newsletter. It helps on all the finicky tasks like compressing PDFs or moving an image from one format to another. It is also worth looking at The Creative Cheat Sheet for visual inspiration, writing and presentation building tools.

    I got to try out Hubspot‘s AEO grader here. It is a good starting point to understand how ChatGPT, Perplexity and Google Gemini ‘see’ and ‘understand’ your brand.

    Finally LUMAscapes is a series of charts by LUMA that give you the main players in agencies, AI, OOH, martech and more categories as convenient PDFs.

    The sales pitch.

    I am currently working on a brand and creative strategy engagement at Google’s internal creative agency. I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements from the start of 2026 – keep me in mind; or get in touch for discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    now taking bookings

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy

    The End.

    Ok this is the end of my November 2025 newsletter, I hope to see you all back here again in a month. Be excellent to each other and get planning for Christmas. As an additional treat here is a link to my Mam’s recipe for Christmas cake – we usually make one in November. It is then allowed to sit prior to serving at Christmas. If looked after correctly it can keep for several months. I grew up with and love fruit cake but your mileage may vary.

    Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.

    Get in touch and if you find it of use, this is now appearing on Substack as well as LinkedIn.

  • Mico + more things

    Mico – A vibrant new way to talk with Copilot | Product Hunt – Strategy wise I have mixed feelings about it. People are already anthropomorphising LLMs and the full impact of that is still yet to be understood – I don’t think its universally good. However, we’ve already got there with Mico as a character. I imagine that fluent objects like Mico does make services stickier.

    In this respect Mico looks like the kind of moral trap Meta, Bytedance have fallen into on their social media platforms.

    Then there is the Clippy trauma now encapsulated as a drop of fleum – but that’s age bracketed so likely means nothing to younger cohorts.

    On the other hand from a marketing effectiveness perspective, if Microsoft use Mico in brand advertising it might work well as a fluent object and boost their brand building performance. Reminded me a lot of British Gas’ Willo the Wisp character.

    Business

    The Pulse: Amazon layoffs – AI or economy to blame? – The Pragmatic Engineer

    China

    A Proud Superpower Answers to No One – by Ryan Fedasiuk – interesting mix of inward-looking and hubris.

    The Loop: How American Profits Built Chinese Power

    Consumer behaviour

    Everyone is totally just winging it, all the time | Psychology | The Guardian

    The Lonely New Vices of American Life – The Atlantic – Booze is down and weed is up, and that’s doing something to Americans as a nation.

    Culture

    Keep the Faith: Inside the modern northern soul revival | Farout magazine – I remember going to Northern Soul nights at the 100 Club on Oxford Street several years ago. Like house, it never disappeared it just went underground.

    Finance

    Sam Altman says OpenAI is not ‘trying to become too big to fail’ | FT and Sam Altman’s pants are totally on fire – by Gary Marcus

    FMCG

    Huggies maker Kimberly-Clark to buy Tylenol maker Kenvue for $40 billion | Axios

    Gadgets

    Moflin | CASIO – an LLM-powered answer to the Furby of the dot com era

    Hong Kong

    Hong Kong’s slumping commercial property market lures savvy tycoon-linked buyer | South China Morning Post – Savvy investors, including a buyer of a floor at Opus in Mid-Levels who is connected to the family of a Cambodian Chinese tycoon, are pouncing on Hong Kong’s slumping commercial property market to snap up bargains.

    The 12th floor of 18 On Lan Street, a Ginza-style commercial building in Central, was handed over to Surplus Inc for HK$34 million (US$4.4 million) on Friday, according to Land Registry records. That represented a 65 per cent loss for the previous owner, Zhou Shubo, who bought the floor for HK$96 million in 2013.

    Kanika Sam Ang was a director at Surplus, according to Companies Registry data. Sam Ang has been associated with the family of tycoon Tony Tandijono, who owns Cambodia-based President Airlines, Phnom Penh casino Holiday Palace and a travel agency in Hong Kong.

    Ideas

    Dubai Chocolate Gives the UAE a Taste of Genuine Soft Power | TIME

    The Prophet of the Stateless Age: What Ian Angell Saw Coming

    Innovation

    New drivetrain technology for off-road vehicles moves safely in difficult terrain | TechXplore

    Sweden, Ukraine to develop new weapons together | Spacewar

    Japan

    Japan Public Markets Under Attack – by Jesper Koll

    Sony launches cheaper Japan-only PlayStation 5 console

    Luxury

    Inside Burberry’s lost year — and the battle to bring back its magic | Dark Luxury

    Materials

    Good vibrations: Ceramic material harvests electricity from waste energy | TechXplore

    Media

    Major Porn Studios Join Forces to Establish Industry ‘Code of Conduct’ | 404 Media – Adult Studio Alliance is founded by major porn companies including Aylo, Dorcel, ERIKALUST, Gamma Entertainment, Mile High Media and Ricky’s Room, and establishes a code of conduct for studios.

    ReelShort and More: The Microdrama TV Series Gold Rush Is Here | Hollywood Reporter – following the Chinese media industry

    Online

    Gen Z Men So Scared of Getting Filmed They’ve Stopped Dating | Rolling StoneIt ends up fueling mistrust in many young men and can turn interactions into battlegrounds where boys feel they must protect their egos. Over time, empathy can go away and suspicion takes its place. Instead of feeling comfortable being genuine, sometimes they second-guess every word or message, wondering how it might be judged, shared, or mocked. But then it takes a turn and that’s why young men may retreat into online spaces that confirm the suspicions they have and help to reinforce negative stereotypes about girls. This causes a Cold War among genders where each side is suspicious of each other and doesn’t have empathy. In these divided spaces, interactions become games of defensive accusation and people grow untrustworthy of one another. – Failing is part of success and of life

    Perplexity strikes multi-year licensing deal with Getty Images  | TechCrunch

    Ritson: Despite Snoop and Katy, Menulog’s collapse was inevitable – Mumbrella

    Security

    Theft Bisect – via Matt MuirThis exists because, seemingly, the Met Police are too dumb to make this themselves’ – you can read an explanation as to the ‘why’ and the ‘how’ behind its existence here, but generally this is just a smart idea, simply-executed.

    Iridium develops compact chip for robust global GPS protection | Space Daily

    CCP Wartime Decisionmaking | ChinaTalk

    Australian spy chief accuses China of IP theft and meddling; experts say remarks reflect certain Australian officials’ attempt to mislead public – Global Times – An Australian spy chief on Tuesday accused Chinese security services of large scale IP theft and political meddling and said China failed to understand how their Western counterparts operate. The remarks came on the heels of comments by Australia’s Defense Minister Richard Marles, who hyped up China’s “military build-up.”

    Chinese experts criticised the series of statements, saying they reflect some Australia politicians’ anxiety and bias toward China’s technological and military progress. Moreover, they said the spy chief’s remarks reveal an arrogance rooted in the belief that Western political system is superior – Global Times is a Chinese government published newspaper.

    Software

    ChatEurope – slow and would have been ok a few years ago

    Nvidia faces Washington heat over alleged Huawei ties | DigiTimes – US lawmakers are ramping up scrutiny of China’s AI and semiconductor sectors, tightening oversight from corporate ties to capital flows to reinforce Washington’s edge in the global AI competition.

    Mozilla announces an AI ‘window’ for Firefox | The Verge

    $) Kimi Kimi on the Wall – by Kevin Xu – Interconnected

    Taiwan

    Mainland Chinese police offer cash rewards for tips on Taiwan’s ‘terrible’ influencers | South China Morning Post – trying to influence Taiwan influencer discussions

    Technology

    Microsoft CEO says the company doesn’t have enough electricity to install all the AI GPUs in its inventory – ‘you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can’t plug in’ | Tom’s Hardware and Investors need to look beyond the ‘bragawatts’ in AI infrastructure boom | FT

    Why Value Outlasts Valuation – On my Om

    Web-of-no-web

    Waymo In The Fast Lane | The future party – Waymo now allowed on select freeways in the US

  • Nvidia ban in China + more things

    Nvidia ban in China

    China bans tech companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips | FT – the Nvidia ban is an interesting move by the Chinese government. I don’t think it’s just about putting pressure on their semiconductor companies and foundries. I think it also steers the software industry and approach to AI as well looking for more computationally efficient models. China can do comparable computes, using more lower spec chips and more power.

    At the moment the leading edge models in the west are taking a hardware led approach rather like putting larger capacity engine in a car a la an old school hotrod. China is forcing its technology sector to take a more holistic approach.

    Having Nvidia lobbying the US for permission to sell Blackwell in China is a secondary benefit and not the hard block people think it is. Compute jobs are already done abroad to get around the ban anyway. Its easy to move SSDs from China to Malaysia to run it on local data centres.

    China has extended the Nvidia ban on purchase to a customs ban as well China launches customs crackdown on Nvidia AI chips | FT

    Business

    Billionaire Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff praises AI while cutting jobs – The Washington Post

    Pokémon And Magic Risk Losing An Entire Generation Of Players | Kotaku – are kids being priced out of hobbies?

    China

    Can China really make its consumers spend? | Jing DailyAfter decades of export success, country’s bet on domestic consumption to propel growth bumps up against beliefs about money and security. – They’ve got more chance of increasing the number of children born, the beliefs are that engrained

    China assumes technology leadership in the automotive industry – Markets are increasingly decoupling | Roland Berger

    TikTok, Pop Mart and the Conditional Logic of Success | Calling The Shots (Ivy Yang)

    Consumer behaviour

    Grave new world: Why young people are grieving a life they’ve never lived | shots Magazine

    Economics

    Why Gen X is the real loser generation | The Economist

    Finance

    Graphic Language: The Curse of the CEO Bloomberg – swearing linked with financial stress

    Exclusive | How China Secretly Pays Iran for Oil and Avoids U.S. Sanctions – WSJ

    Innovation

    Why is AI struggling to discover new drugs? FT

    Japan

    Shirow Masamune and the Predictions of “Ghost in the Shell” | Nippon.com – still my favourite manga and anime franchise. It still feels fresh and forward looking four decades later.

    If you only click through on one link on this post make it this one – Animated Spirituality – by Hiroko Yoda – Japan Happiness

    I love some of the apparently random things that Toyota under Akio Toyoda do. From the GR Yaris to this documentary on a vintage Komatsu steel press that was instrumental in Toyota’s first car factory and still is doing sterling work.

    The dialogue is in Japanese but English subtitles are available.

    Luxury

    Fashion retreats from diversity: ‘We are again being openly asked for Caucasian models’

    The Art of Slowing Down: Another Moët F1 Blunder, Gaultier’s Runway Disaster & Trump’s Pasta Tariffs – A Weekend in Luxury Chaos – Intern Pierre – failure to execute

    Materials

    The “Critical Minerals” Crisis of 100 Years Ago | Chris Miller – great essay by the author of Chip War – and my review of Chip War here.

    Marketing

    Outside Perspective Y25W41 – Sisterhoods and Support – WARC future of strategy critiqued

    Media

    Meta manipulated child safety research, ex-employees tell US Senate panel | FT

    Younger people and women in the EU read more books – News articles – Eurostat

    Movember report – Young Men’s Media Landscaping

    Mastodon has a new plan to make money: Hosting and support services for the open social web | TechCrunch – it reminds me of the service and support models that the Linux economy pivoted to in the late 1990s. We’ll see if it survives

    Google expands AI Portraits globally with Scott Galloway mentor | The Tech Buzz – Galloway since took it down

    Online

    Meta manipulated child safety research, ex-employees tell US Senate panel | FT

    Security

    Hacking Cable — Technical Report – agentic script kiddies

    UK’s MI6 Agency Sets Up New Dark Web Portal to Recruit Spies – Bloomberg – this is a tough one, especially given UKG’s stance on cryptography, would you trust the Silent Courier portal?

    America First? Hegseth Announces Foreign Air Force Facility in U.S. | The New Republic – “will host a contingent of Qatari F-15s and pilots to enhance our combined training, increase lethality, interoperability”

    Software

    Deloitte issues refund for error-ridden Australian government report that used AI | FT

    ADK Insider: ADK When It Was Born | by Bo Yang | Google Cloud – Community | Oct, 2025 | Medium

    Technology

    Apple’s executive reshuffling isn’t over | The Verge

    Should the public sector build its own AI? FT

    SAP to invest over 20 billion euros in sovereign cloud in Europe | CNBC

    why-language-models-hallucinate | OpenAI & Why Chatbots Still Hallucinate – and How OpenAI Wants to Fix It – UC Today

    101 real-world gen AI use cases with technical blueprints | Google Cloud Blog – this reminds me a lot of SAP’s industry templates back in the day. *Disclosure I am freelancing for an internal agency at Google.

    OpenAI Raids Apple for Hardware Talent, Manufacturing Partners — The Information – hoovering talent out of Apple beyond the machine learning teams to include engineering, supply chain etc and OpenAI and Ive poach Apple designers, target suppliers for hardware push – 9to5Mac

    The Mysterious “New Ideas” for AI Data Center Build Outs | Spyglass

    UK is falling behind in the use of AI, says Google chief | The Times ying and yang of the same story: Small businesses could save a day a week if they use AI, Google claims | The Independent

    Axios AI+ Government | States are making their own rules for AI

    Web of no web

    Global Drone Market to Hit $8 Billion by 2029: Precision Agriculture Takes Off | EE News

    We’re all about to be in wearable hell | The Verge

    GeoVector looks like where 2.0 type locative technology with applications for next generation ‘Mirrorworld‘-type services.

    Wireless

    The iPhone 17 Event: Less Awe, More Unsexy & That’s A Good Thing – On my Om