Category: economics | 經濟學 | 경제학 | 経済

Economics or the dismal science was something I felt that I needed to include as it provides the context for business and consumption.

Prior to the 20th century, economics was the pursuit of gentleman scholars. The foundation of it is considered to be Adam Smith when he published is work An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith outlined one of the core tenets of classical economics: each individual is driven by self-interest and can exert only a negligible influence on prices. And it was the start of assumptions that economists model around that don’t mirror real life all the time.

What really is a rational decision maker? Do consumers always make rational decisions? Do they make decisions that maximise their economic benefit?

The problem is that they might do actions that are rational to them:

  • Reducing choice when they are overwhelmed
  • Looking for a little luxury to comfort them over time. Which was the sales of Cadbury chocolate and Revlon lipstick were known to rise in a recession
  • Luxury goods in general make little sense from a ration decision point of view until you realise the value of what they signal
  • Having a smartphone yet buying watches. Japanese consumers were known to still buy watches to show that they care about the time to employers when they could easily check their smartphone screen

All of which makes the subject area of high interest to me as a marketer. It also explains the amount of focus now being done by economists on the behavioural aspect of things.

  • Media agency interviews & things that made last week

    Media agency interview with Simon Peel of Adidas

    There is a certain irony in a media agency that promoted just the kind of short-termist platforms for advertising, interviewing Simon Peel. Still we have the echoes of a disruption narrative ripping through advertising spend and and brand equity like a hot knife through butter. More on simon here.

    Subprime car loans

    The FT on the subprime car loan problem from an economic perspective that’s frightening in its scale. This is one of the biggest threats to the move to electrification in cars. Admittedly this threat compounds problems such as:

    • Energy density which leads to the range anxiety of the cars
    • The escalating price of lithium
    • The finite supply of lithium
    • The difficulty in recycling lithium ion batteries
    • Electric power grid infrastructure
    • Charger maintenance

    Ko Hyojoo

    Asian Boss have done this great film with Korean long board rider Ko Hyojoo

    US personal hygiene Irish Spring doing some interesting (and cheap) activations in sports. Irish Spring Celebrates College Football Rivalries 11/27/2019 | Media Post

    Vangelis

    A couple of years old now, but this a great short film highlighting the cultural impact on music of Vangelis’ soundtrack to Blade Runner.

    Vangelis was a famous electronic artist before he worked on Blade Runner. He had made a number of solo albums as soundtracks for animal documentaries and the Chariots of Fire soundtrack. He was also working as part of Jon and Vangelis on successful albums throughout the 1980s. But his work on Blade Runner seems to have been the film that crystallised his place in electronic music culture. Blade Runner wasn’t a runaway success at the box office, but instead took over time on video rental as word of mouth went around. Eventually it was released in a number of different edits that helped boost its popularity. By the time DVD as a format came around, it was one of the first obvious choices for the format.

  • US military right to repair + more

    Here’s One Reason the US Military Can’t Fix Its Own Equipment – The New York Times – the irony of the US military being restricted by US legislation and lack of ‘right to repair’. US military withdrawal from R&D hasn’t help things either. DARPA does pure research, but the focus on COTS (commercial off the shelf) solutions by the US military has seen a withdrawal from more practical applications. Where is the modern US military equivalent of things like the Piccatinny rail standard? More security related content here.

    KSC-20191102-PH-BOE01-0001

    Facebook’s fake numbers problem — Lex in depth | Financial TimesFacebook’s own estimates suggest duplicate accounts represent approximately 11 per cent of monthly active users while fake versions make up another 5 per cent. Others claim the total is higher. Yet Facebook continues to promote its user base as an incredible 2.45bn per month — close to one-third of the global population.” – ok so some of the logic is wonky, but the underlying point is very interesting

    Adidas is shutting down its Speedfactories in Germany and the US — Quartz – Adidas is apparently moving this to APAC which negates the agile advantage. Is this more about Capex and recent poor financial results instead?

    Sidewalk Labs document reveals company’s early vision for data collection, tax powers, criminal justice – The Globe and Mail The community Alphabet sought to build when it launched Sidewalk Labs, she said, was like a “for-profit China” that would “use digital infrastructure to modify and direct social and political behaviour.” While Sidewalk has since moved away from many of the details in its book, Prof. Zuboff contends that Alphabet tends to “say what needs be said to achieve commercial objectives, while specifically camouflaging their actual corporate strategy.” – some of the most sinister stuff I’ve heard of, that hasn’t been originated by Chinese Communist Party cadre

    E-Commerce Content Marketing: A 2020 China Trend | PARKLU – basically OTT shopping TV

    Luxury Daily | Breitling in step with resale mood launches online trade in programme – or a way of stimulating sales. Rolex seems to have sucked a lot of the momentum out of the luxury watch market. Breitling and and other brands like IWC have suffered

    Chaebols and firm dynamics in the Republic of Korea | VOX, CEPR Policy PortalMoving from low- to high-income status implies that countries escape the middle-income trap. This implies institutional reform to create innovation-based growth. The column uses firm-level data to show how the Korean government’s chaebol reforms in the late 1990s transformed the economy from an investment-based to an innovation-based model. There are lessons here for China.

    USAF officer says China brags about stealing US military tech, they call it “picking flowers in the US to make honey in China” | War Is Boring”China devotes significant resources at a national level to infiltrate our universities and our labs,” Murphy stated. “They are doing it for a reason. They’ve even coined the phrase, ‘Picking flowers in the US to make honey in China,’ which I would say perfectly illustrates their deliberate plan to steal R&D, knowhow, and technology

    Why are so many countries witnessing mass protests? | The Economist – interesting on how there isn’t necessarily a clear correlation of reasons, despite efforts to find a pattern – (paywall)

    Apple, TikTok draw congressional rebuke for skipping hearing on China – The Washington Post – I hope that they get penalised

    Dialog 50 cent SoC Targets Disposable Bluetooth Market | EE Times – environmental disaster in waiting

    Smartphones Rule. But Should They Control Cars? | EE Times – no they shouldn’t

    Something in the air – Why are so many countries witnessing mass protests? | International | The EconomistAs Red Flag, an Australian socialist journal, sees it: “For more than four decades, country after country has been ravaged by neoliberal policies designed to make the mass of workers and the poor pay for what is a growing crisis in the system.”

    Opinion | Why Google’s Quantum Supremacy Milestone Matters – The New York TimesIn everyday life, the probability of an event can range only from 0 percent to 100 percent (there’s a reason you never hear about a negative 30 percent chance of rain). But the building blocks of the world, like electrons and photons, obey different, alien rules of probability, involving numbers — the amplitudes — that can be positive, negative, or even complex (involving the square root of -1). Furthermore, if an event — say, a photon hitting a certain spot on a screen — could happen one way with positive amplitude and another way with negative amplitude, the two possibilities can cancel, so that the total amplitude is zero and the event never happens at all. This is “quantum interference,” and is behind everything else you’ve ever heard about the weirdness of the quantum world.

    5G will only be as revolutionary as the devices we design for it — Quartz“When we’ve spoken with consumers who carry the latest smartphones today, and you talk with them about 5G, what these users are saying is that the current form factor and feature sets cannot take advantage of the promise of 5G,” Sethi told Quartz. While smartphones are great for reading the web, watching videos, and checking emails, there’s not much that a considerably faster connection speed will do for them that they can’t already do.

    Unreal life: just 21% of Brits believe internet personalities portray life honestly | YouGov – about authenticity as a concept….

    Letter of the US attorney general – very thoughtful defence of end-to-end cryptography in the face of sensationalist ‘protecting children’ claims

    How China’s mystery author called its economic slowdown | Financial Times – interesting read about the end of China’s growth

    I Accidentally Uncovered a Nationwide Scam on Airbnb – VICE – the interesting bit is that AirBnB don’t care if people get grifted

    China effectively bans online sales of e-cigarettes | Revue – given that: China invented the e-cigarette and the government has a monopoly on smoking sale. This isn’t the market opportunity loss Juul et al might think that it is

    IPA | IPA reacts to Twitter’s political ad ban If online platforms won’t commit to a publicly available, platform-neutral, machine-readable register of all political ads and ad data online, then they should consider following Twitter’s lead in banning political advertising – and even then what would the first solution solve, given the failure of legislative regulation – what’s the point of a register when you have both major parties more crooked than a yakuza convention, but without the style?

    IPA | IPA Insight Infographic: Smartphones – interesting point for me is that the phone alarm didn’t appear on this

    IPA | Legal Update 31 October 2019Google announced that they are making changes to YouTube to address the substance of the FTC’s concerns and will apply these changes globally. The changes, which will be rolled out from January, include:• moving families over to YouTube Kids through notifications and educating parents about its benefits;• identifying Made for Kids content on YouTube via a combination of input from creators and machine learning; and • no longer serving personalised ads on Made for Kids, for all users regardless of age, and serving only contextual ads on this content

  • Electric car issues + more stuff

    Tesla Model 3 Survey: What Owners Think About the Electric Car – interesting read, Toyota and VW Group will eat them alive as their electric car programme take off. I am not going into the dumb nature of Li-ion versus hydrogen powered vehicles…

    Stacked Cars In City Junkyard Will Be Used For Scrap, August 1973

    ‘Caveat Emptor:’ State Dept. Mocks Russian, PRC Weapon Sales In ‘Buy American’ Pitch « Breaking Defensefour Chinese-made Harbin Z-9 helicopters purchased by Cameroon in 2015, one of which crashed soon after purchase. Similarly, Kenya bought a handful of Chinese-made Norinco VN4 armored personnel carriers, “vehicles that China’s own sales representative declined to sit inside during a test firing,” he claimed. “Since going ahead with the purchase regardless, sadly dozens of Kenyan personnel have been reportedly killed in those vehicles,” Cooper said, adding “caveat emptor!”  He also slammed Chinese CH-4 armed drones, which various countries in the Middle East have found “to be inoperable within months, and are now turning around to get rid of them… We have seen countries around the world leap at the chance to obtain high-tech, low-cost defensive capabilities only to see their significant investments crumble and rust in their hands” – buy China and pay twice, interesting to see this in the defence sector. Is the export quality worse than the products for the PLA? Or is China falling down on maintenance and services packages (customer service)? I think the Russian argument is harder to make given their decades of experience building simple, but effective defence products

    Ireland Inc.: The corporatization of affective life in post-Celtic Tiger Ireland – Diane Negra, Anthony P McIntyre,how a post-Celtic Tiger Irish government aligned with elite interests has doubled down on its commitment to corporate citizenship. Despite the depredations of this era being directly attributable to the irrational exuberance of the Celtic Tiger period and lapses in financial regulation, Ireland post-2008 is marked by a radical forgetfulness and defined by ‘Shock Doctrine’ regulatory policies that have installed corporatism at the heart of everyday life. Key features of this landscape include ongoing governmental facilitation of tax avoidance by multinational corporations, the hollowing out of public services, the normalization of under-employment and a burgeoning housing crisis. We show here how the popular images and narratives of the period index a shift toward corporate impregnability and a public culture in which individuals absorb greater risk and take up positions of heightened precarity

    One firm, two countries, one workplace model? The case of Foxconn’s internationalisation – Rutvica Andrijasevic, Devi Sacchetto, Ngai Pun,insight into the employment relations in China-based multinational companies internationalising to Europe, a still relatively unexplored topic. We investigate the transfer of work and employment practices from Foxconn’s manufacturing headquarters in mainland China to its subsidiaries in Czechia and the factors that influence the firm’s internationalisation of production – (PDF)

    M&S launches ‘buy now, pay later’ service | Business | The Guardian – sub prime retailing in the making

    Glossy 101: How fashion brands are rethinking influencer marketing – Glossywhen brands work with micro-influencers, they’re paying less to work with people who tend to have a more engaged audience. A report from The Wall Street Journal estimated the micro tier charges between $400 and $2,000 per post, while higher tiers will charge anywhere between $10,000 and $150,000. It should be a win-win. However, by adding more people to the mix, brands are setting themselves up for a lot more work

    The Boss on Board: Mafia Infiltrations, Firm Performance, and Local Economic Growth | naked capitalism – explains a lot

    Sprout Social its at IPO | Pitchbook – it will be interesting to see how they get on given the negative investor sentiment around the likes of Hootsuite

    China’s e-commerce giants are looking for gold in rural areas as growth in big cities slows down | South China Morning Post – over 26% of China’s online population are from rural areas

    BT unveils biggest brand campaign in 20 yearscreated by Saatchi & Saatchi, the ad begins with a schoolgirl reciting Charles Dickens’ classic opening from A Tale of Two Cities as she walks through the dreary British streets. Set to Blinded by Your Grace, Pt 2 by Stormzy, it goes on to showcase Britain’s technological advances over the past few decades, from CCTV and Tube advancements to the emergence of broadband – is it just me or this or is this exceptionally dark. CCTV!

    Cathay Pacific Calls On PR Firm Edelman To Help Plot Revival | Holmes Report – thankless task for Edelman, short of a takeover by Air China nothing is going to stop the China government pressure. It might slow it down but it won’t stop it. Swire needs to extract itself from China

    Measuring the effectiveness of creativity in marketing | Marketing Weekthe ad industry will be forced to refocus on creativity. Yet marketers (and their counterparts in finance) have become used to the measurability of performance marketing. If the industry can’t prove the effectiveness of creativity, brands will continue to up spend on short-term sales activations rather than brand building. The majority of markets are trying to add some science to the art. An exclusive survey of more than 400 brand marketers conducted by Marketing Week finds 61.8% measure the effectiveness of their creative (compared to 76.5% who measure the effectiveness of media)

    Don’t Let Metrics Critics Undermine Your Business | MIT Sloan Reviewthose lucky employees who haven’t been automated into professional obsolescence instead find themselves enduring what economic historian Jerry Z. Muller calls the “tyranny of metrics.” Numbers rule their workplace lives, and there’s no escape. “The problem is not measurement,” Muller declares, “but excessive measurement and inappropriate measurement — not metrics, but metric fixation.” “Don’t Let Metrics Undermine Your Business,” warns Harvard Business Review’s September-October 2019 cover story: “Strategy is abstract by definition, but metrics give strategy form, allowing our minds to grasp it more readily. … The mental tendency to replace strategy with metrics can destroy company value.”

    Reliance on Louis Koo’s Box Office Power Highlights Challenges in Hong Kong Industry | JayneStars.com – to be honest this has been coming for years. There are few Hong Kong male stars below the age of 50. It saddens me having grown up on Hong Kong cinema and knowing the richness of creativity in the city

    Hey – it could’ve been Regina Ip! | Big Lychee, Various Sectors – it seems Hong Kong officials use Reuters as their preferred conduit for leaks (or ‘scoops’ as media folk call them), while their Mainland counterparts prefer the Financial Times. The latter today reveals (paywall, etc, possibly) that Beijing will eject Chief Executive Carrie Lam, maybe in March, after things have ‘stabilized’ ha ha

    New WeChat regulation on incentivized sharing and external links – new WeChat regulation on incentivized sharing and external links

    Six Chinese men jailed for a hit job that was subcontracted five times – InkstonePi Yijun, a criminal justice professor at the China University of Political Science and Law in Beijing, said the case reflected strong distaste towards litigation in Chinese culture. “People are not willing to go through the legal channel,” Pi told Inkstone. “Whenever they encounter disputes, they try to solve it privately, mediating through personal connections or taking the law into their own hands.” – Caveat Emptor

    Steve Jobs’ speech that made Silicon Valley obsessed with pirates — Quartz – ‘machine for thinking’

    AI Weekly: In China, you can no longer buy a smartphone without a face scan | VentureBeat – there’ll be a good market in stolen phones then

    SpaceX submits paperwork for 30,000 more Starlink satellites – SpaceNews.com – Iridium 2?

    Ren Zhengfei: HongMeng is capable but will not replace Android | Gizchina – translation – we aspire to displace Android and become more profitable but our OS isn’t up to snuff for westerners

    Andy Kessler: WSJ: Tech Treadmill Wears Firms OutMax Hopper’s “Rattling SABRE—New Ways to Compete on Information,” and finally in 2013 we got Rita Gunther McGrath’s “The End of Competitive Advantage.” Each of these takes describes a different stage in the life cycle of corporate tech. Hopper was, as Harvard professor James Cash noted, “the first person who really defined the marketing leverage that could come from using technology.” In the late 1950s Hopper helped build Sabre, an automated flight-reservation system, and in 1981 he helped design the first major frequent-flier program to give American Airlines a competitive “AAdvantage.” Yet by 1990 he worried that the game was over, suggesting that technology was “table stakes for competition.” Hopper noted that “SABRE’s real importance to American Airlines was that it prevented an erosion of market share.” That insight comes to mind watching the Streaming War of 2019. Netflix and Amazon have a huge lead in streaming video. But eventually everyone uses the same technology. Tim Cook wants in, so Apple TV+ launches Nov. 1 with (probably overpaid) Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon. Robert Iger wants in, and Disney paid (probably too much) for control of BAMTech, the streaming-video technology developed by Major League Baseball, which it is deploying for streaming services Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu + Live TV. AT&T wants in and paid (again likely too much) for Time Warner to create HBO Max. NBCUniversal wants in too. See the trend? Google ought to rename its streaming service YouTube TV Max+

    Are Publicis’ problems reflective of a wider market malaise? | Advertising | Campaign AsiaBy placing Publicis on top of Saatchi & Saatchi, Leo Burnett and Bartle Bogle Hegarty, they have destroyed those storied brands. By putting Publicis Sapient on top of LBi, Digitas, Rosetta and Razorfish, they have killed their digital brands too. As a result, now they are saying they have to transform the transformers – I agree that brands have been affected, but I’d also argue that the flight away from craft to disruption has also been probelmatic

    Martin Sorrell: Group M alone is worth as much as WPP’s stock market value | Campaign Asia – in the face of Facebook, Google and Amazon advertising in the west and Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent advertising in China is Group M really worth the whole of WPP alone? There is also the aspect that Group M has been crying disruption, disruption and screwing its own business

    Qatar, facing unbearable heat, has begun to air-condition the outdoors – Washington Post – this sounds mad

    Google discontinues Daydream View VR headset and drops Daydream support from Pixel 4 – The Verge – people don’t like wearing their phone

    Facebook opens search ads to all advertisers – Search Engine Land – this is going to make things interesting

    U.S. lawmakers urge Apple to restore HKMap app used in Hong Kong – Reuters – Apple and quisling Tim Cook getting squeezed by US politicians

    Louis Vuitton Has a Factory in Texas Now, Marking its Third in the U.S. — The Fashion Law LVMH – which is trudging ahead and abroad and “increasingly letting industrial logic and geopolitics govern supply-chain decisions,” per Dalton, while competitors, “such as Gucci, Hermès and Chanel have kept most [of their] production in Italy and France” – this is just business. And considering that LVMH’s Fashion & Leather Goods division, alone, brought in $15.8 billion in sales in the first 9 months of the year– with the group as a whole reporting revenues of $42.14 billion for the same period

    Teaching Democrats to Speak Evangelical | The New Yorker – interesting how the Democratic Party are having to go back to basics on learning community relations in US politics

  • Tyler Cowen on digital economy

    Interesting session with Marginal Revolution’s Tyler Cowen at the OECD. Tyler Cowen is an economics professor at George Washington University, author, blogger and media commentator. In this discussion Cowen addresses the challenge of Huawei and big tech. Cowen is broadly pro big business, anti-small business and pro big tech in his outlook.

    In his discussion in terms of big technology Tyler Cowen has an interesting position, though not something I would agree with. As it doesn’t allow for startups coming through in a winner-takes-all environment. Working agency side for clients as the dot com boom took off, you could see the impact of ‘Microsoft fear’ as it was shed in Silicon Valley. For instance, Yahoo! went out of their way to call themselves a media company rather than a technology company. Supporting big tech means supporting ‘just good enough’ bundled services, rather than a better product. It also reflects a very American-centric viewpoint.

    Cowen is very concerned about biometric recognition (facial recognition, finger print analysis and gait analysis). He doesn’t realise that his concerns are at odds with his neo liberal pro-

    Tyler Cowen is also very concerned about the dominance of Huawei in 5G network rollout. Whilst I understand his position, it lacks a certain amount of nuance in understanding network rollout and Huawei’s place in the networks (at least in western countries). It is also at odds with his general pro big tech stance.

    An interesting nugget from interviews that Cowen has done (in promotion of his books) newspaper journalists were upset about Facebook, all radio journalists are anti-Amazon.

    Tyler Cowen’s comments on trust are interesting. The key thrust is that online has allowed elites and their faults to be more available online.

    It is well worth giving this a listen over a lunch hour (its 77 minutes long). More from Tyler here. More economics related content here.

  • Immediacy as a problem

    Immediacy is a relatively recent phenomena for consumers. It has changed the work and personal lives of consumers. It has eroded the barrier between work life and home life. It has redefined our support networks and friendships.

    Before I wrote this post, I had conversation with a friend working on a project in Singapore who’d had an eventful few days. With zero thought I was able to see if he was online and reach out and see how things were going.

    I’ve worked with clients who seem to email or message around the clock. For a while Snapchat streaks of several days were a thing – highlighting extreme immediacy in consumer behaviour.

    What did life before immediacy look like?

    I can remember the start of a working life without the mobile phone, or email. Fax machines were not items generally found in homes. You could buy them in Argos or the Viking catalogue with cheap thermal printing technology.

    Sky had launched their analogue satellite business, but there also fanatics who had directed dishes. They were a very expensive version of radio hams and CB radios.

    Satellite and cable TV meant choice. Some channels specialised and CNN specialised in constant news from around the world. Its ability to report events in near real-time came into sharp focus during the first Gulf War. Like most Europeans to me CNN was an idea, I didn’t actually have it in my own home. But it gave a deceptive taster of what always-on connectedness actually meant.

    Home computers were distinct and separate platforms from business computing. Dragon, Sinclair Research, the Commodore 64 and Amiga. Atari moved into computing and saw success with the ST. Windows and Mac had only started to weave its way into European households.

    The cassette was starting to be challenged by the CD in terms of personal media. The CD burner would arrive in mainstream homes a little bit after the Mac and the PC; right around the time of consumer dial-up internet access.

    Personal communications meant:

    • A phone card that worked in telephone boxes
    • A telephone extension fitted with a nod and a wink by friend who’d worked at the phone company

    There was no free local calling so the American gen-X behaviour of spending the evening on the phone to your friends didn’t happen so much in the UK and Europe.

    Do-it-yourself culture meant:

    • Fanzines created on a photocopier
    • Setting up an independent record label
    • Running a club night

    For medium and large companies there was an internal mail system. Mail would be exchanged between sites via a courier service overnight. The package would be opened and then distributed by an internal mail room.

    I worked in the oil industry at the time, so we could do international communications through telex. Telex was a legal document. The best analogy I had for it would be if your office had a collective email address. When a message came in, these would be printed and then distributed by the internal post system.

    Communications was a batch process for workers. In terms of importance as a task; communications was something that happened alongside the rest of your job. You might open your post mid-morning. You’d drop off any internal mail to a wire basket by reception by mid afternoon.

    Immediacy in communications started first with PBXs (private branch exchanges). The office phone on every desk and at each point on a production line changed things. Direct dial out changed things up, you could phone suppliers directly. You could arrange for information to be sent to the office or work site fax machine. Receiving a fax would be a big event in your day. You’d wait by the fax machine to receive it. Later on as fax traffic increased; you’d get a call from reception to pick up your fax.

    Now, many modern workspaces don’t have office phones, or if they do – they aren’t well maintained and on the way out.

    Bigger companies had office phones paired with a voice mail system and ‘while you were out’ Post-It notes were a thing.

    While you were out

    Mobile phones changed everything. My first mobile phone was a luggable phone that looked more like a piece of military equipment. It was used when I would be driving away from the office in a company car. The phone was strapped into the passenger seat.

    Smaller models changed the game for sales people, plumbers and mobile locksmiths. I bought my first pager whilst at college. It was a text messenger where people would leave a message with an operator and this would be then sent on to me. Occasionally I didn’t get a message, it wasn’t as reliable as SMS is now.

    In enterprises, internal email came along with the use of mini-computers. The first email account that I used, communicated internally. It ran on a DEC VAX mini-computer and I accessed it via VT100 terminal emulator running on a Mac Classic.

    Very few people used email in the company. It was easier to get things in and out of the fax machine. Memos went on bulletin boards, people called each other or walked around the site.

    In the US, free local calls, saw the rise of dial up services like AOL, Prodigy and CompuServe as a mass consumer service. Chat rooms might have been the reason why people signed up. Computer-based email and messaging quickly became the killer application.

    In Europe the rise of 2G or GSM phones and SMS played a similar roles. My first personal mobile phone, came with SMS. At first it wasn’t much use, but when I moved down to London and started working in agencies I could message colleagues.

    Businesses got on the internet. Companies used pre-internet protocols to exchange stock and financial information between sites. Often it was creative businesses first. ISDN lines offered a way of sending artwork directly to printers in a secure manner. It was a small perceptual jump to move from ISDN exchange to internet usage.

    These businesses usually had a single email account for the business that was checked twice a day if that.

    At college I got a glimpse of the future. We had internet over the JANET system. Liverpool had its first cyber cafe with a decent expresso machine and homemade carrot cake. I signed up for a Yahoo! account prior to leaving college. I wrote my emails as text documents on a Mac and took them to Liverpool on a Saturday. I would spend an hour sending my emails, keeping in touch with friends and applying to jobs I’d read about. I’d find out about jobs in The Guardian newspaper or marketing magazines. It was around about this time that I started buying the US edition of Wired magazine. It’s neon typography promised a cyber-utopian future.

    Immediacy – the problem

    At the time we didn’t see immediacy as the issue.

    The problem was time keeping. Before the mobile phone, you would show up on time to a pub or a bar. But with SMS you could let people know if you were running late.

    The second bug bear was information overload. It took as little effort to copy in 20 people on an email as it did to send it to one person. The web was still frustratingly slow. The speed that pages would load would grind to a halt when America woke up.

    Yahoo Office Attachments Screengrab

    There were no social norms and ettiquette. Memes came around as attachments to emails, clogging up your account. Yahoo! used to have a section of meme-worthy videos and images on its site called ‘Office Attachments’ in a nod to this habit. Everything would be shared; a watershed moment was the Claire Swire email.

    It was around about this time that people started to question the impact of communications had on productivity. It was certainly more convenient, but you lost a corresponding amount of time wading through your email inbox.

    There was also a corresponding expectation in a faster response because of the convenience. So what did we lose? We lost time. If we think about CNN and other 24 hour news channels, it is easy to see what was lost through immediacy:

    • Editorial space to make sense of things
    • Analysis rather than talking heads
    • A bigger perspective rather than just ‘the now’, all the time

    In agencies, the situation was rather similar. I was chatting to a senior person in client services at a major advertising agency. To paraphrase that they said: client service was better without email. Why? Because:

    • It gave them time to get things done
    • To make things happen
    • To investigate the best options
    • To craft an appropriate considered response that would be to the benefit of all parties
    • It allowed emotional reactions on all side to subside
    • To get the bigger picture in a way that isn’t possible to the same extent now

    Instead things get escalated to senior executives so they can be talked about in-person or over the phone.

    Technological snake oil

    Having started my agency career working in the technology sector, I have a good idea of how the sales cycle works. Each new generation vendor finds ways to deal with unintended consequences of the past. The rationales have generally stayed the same.

    • Productivity – but they often mistake productivity for the illusion of immediacy. Something happening now! It doesn’t matter what it is, but the feeling that something’s moving
    • Speed (or agility) – the idea that immediacy engenders some sort of superior performance in a reinvention of Taylorism for bureaucracy
    • Scalability – that it will cater with no growing pains for any size of organisation
    • Reliability – it will work regardless of whatever happens… until it doesn’t. It creates the illusion that it isn’t the system thats wrong, but the individuals. The reality is that the process design in the application usually doesn’t capture all scenarios

    In communications there has been a plethora of systems.

    • Digital All-In-One
    • WordPerfect Office
    • Microsoft Office
    • Novell NetWare and GroupWise
    • Microsoft Exchange and Office
    • Lotus Notes
    • Oracle BeeHive

    Slack is the latest in a long line of collaborative tools. But it spreads the communications like peanut butter rather than reducing to an optimal level of information. This is not Slack’s problem. For what it is, its a well designed application. The problem is that we still think immediacy is cardinal.