Category: london | 倫敦 | 런던 | ロンドン

Why London?

First of all I live in London, I put down my roots here because of work. Commuting from the outside towns into the city takes a long time. People only tend to do that when they don’t have to come in every day or getting their kids into a good school is important for them.

Secondly it is an area distinct from the rest of the UK, this is partly down to history and the current economic reality. It is distinct in terms of population make-up and economic opportunity. London has a culture that is distinct from the rest of the UK, partly due to its population make-up. Over 30 percent of the city’s inhabitants were born in another country. From music to fashion, its like a different country:

  • As one women’s clothing retailer once said on a news interview ‘The further north you go; the more skin you see’.
  • The weekend is a huge thing outside the city. By comparison, it isn’t the big deal in London. The reason was that there were things you could enjoy every night of the week.
  • You can get a good cup of coffee
  • The city was using cashless payments way before it became universal elsewhere in the country
  • The line has extended into politics. London opposed Brexit. London, like other major cities it is one of the last holdouts of Labour party support in the 2019 UK general election

London posts often appear in other categories, as it fulfils multiple categories.

If there are London subjects that you think would fit with this blog, feel free to let me know by leaving a comment in the ‘Get in touch’ section of this blog here.

  • Louis Vuitton, Supreme: streetwear & luxury brands

    The recent collaboration between New York’s Supreme and Louis Vuitton seems like a natural fit.  The reality is that luxury and streetwear have been dancing around each other for a good while.

    Snide started it all

    Snide was slang in the 1980s for fake or counterfeit. Hip Hop and the Caribbean-influenced Buffalo movement in the UK each used counterfeit and real luxury in their own way.

    Daniel Day, better known as Dapper Dan was a was a Harlem-based craftsman and business man who dressed a lot of New York based artists from the golden age of hip hop. Dan’s first hip hop client was LL Cool J back in 1985. Dan’s style was luxe, the finest silks and furs were standard issue – think Puff Daddy before Puff Daddy. They went for customised outfits with their branding on which Dan provided. As the scene took off Dan incorporated suit lining material (which replicated the likes of the Fendi, Bally  or MCM brands) and Gucci or Louis Vuitton branded vinyl to make one-off products.

    He customised trainers, clothing and even car interiors. Dan’s own Jeep Wrangler had an interior retrimmed in MCM branded vinyl.

    Much of the luxury branding Dan used was coming in from Korean factories which at that time supplied the fake trade. Now similar products would have come out of China. I took a trip to the South China City complex in 2010 where fabric suppliers would offer Louis Vuitton labels and Supreme tags side-by-side.  I can only imagine that the Korean suppliers of the 1980s  had similar markets in textile industry centres like Deagu. Outside of hip hop, Dan was the go-to tailor for all the hustlers in Harlem – so you can see how he could have got the hook-up into the counterfeit suppliers.

    At the time hip hop culture was not in a relationship with brands who where concerned about how it might affect them. LL Cool J was the first artist to get a deal with Le Coq Sportif. Run DMC got a long term deal with Adidas after their single ‘My Adidas’ became successful. But these were the exceptions to the rule.  So with Dan’s help they co-opted the brands to try and demonstrate success.

    Over in the UK, the Buffalo collective of stylists, artists and photographers including Ray Petri, Jamie Morgan, Barry Kamen (who modelled for Petri), Mark Lebon and Cameron McVey. Buffalo was known as an attitude, which threw contrasting styles together and filtered into fashion shoots and influenced the collections of major designers including Yohji Yamamoto, Jean Paul Gaultier and Comme des Garçons. Even if you didn’t know what Buffalo was, you would have recognised the aesthetic from the likes of i-D, Blitz, New Musical Express and Arena. 

    Buffalo mixed Armani jackets with Doctor Martens work boots, or a Puma bobble hat. Petri used music to sound track his process and this was pretty similar to the kind of stuff that influenced street wear pioneer Shawn Stussy over in California. Motown and hip-hop to dub reggae was the sound which explains the Feeling Irie t-shirts created by the white surfboard maker.

    If you thought Bros looked cool in their MA-1 bomber jackets and stone washed Levi’s 501 jeans – there was a direct stylistic line back to Buffalo – rehabilitating the items from their link to skinhead culture.

    Buffalo permeated into the street style of the decade; influencing the likes of Soul II Soul. Meanwhile over in Bristol The Wild Bunch were yet to morph into Massive Attack. Two members headed to London; producer Nelle Hooper and Miles Johnson (aka DJ Milo who went on to work in New York and Japan). A shoot was organised by i-D magazine and they turned up wearing their street clothes alongside DJ Dave Dorrell and model / stylist Barnsley. At the time, it was considered to be ‘very Buffalo’ in feel, but Dave Dorrell admitted in an interview that they had just came as they were. Dorrell wore his t-shirt as ‘advertising’ for it.

    buffalo

    The Hermes t-shirt and belt were snide, the Chanel Number 5 t-shirt sported by Dave Dorrell were being knocked out by a group of friends. Young people in London co-opted brands just like the hip-hop artists heading to Dapper Dan’s in Harlem.

    Homage

    From 1980, surfer Shawn Stussy had been growing an clothing empire of what we would now recognise as streetwear. Stussy had originally came up with the t-shirts as an adjunct and advertisement of his main business – selling surfboards. But the clothing hit emerging culture: skating, punk, hip-hop and took on a life of its own. It went global through Stussy’s ‘tribe’ of friends that he made along the way.

    Stussy is known for his eclectic influences and mixing media: old photographs alongside his own typography. In a way that was unheard of in brand circles at the time, Stussy manifested his brands in lots of different ways. The back to back SS logo inside a circle was a straight rip from Chanel; the repeating logo motif that appeared in other designs was a nod to MCM and Louis Vuitton.

    All of this went into the cultural melting pot of world cities like Tokyo, New York, London and Los Angeles. Stussy went on to do collaborations from a specially designed party t-shirt for i-D magazine’s birthday party to the cover art of Malcolm Maclaren records. Collaboration with mundane and high-end brands is baked into streetwear’s DNA.

    Coke Zero x Neighborhood limited edition cans

    (Neighborhood x Coke Zero was something I was involved with during my time in Hong Kong.)

    Japan with its engrained sense of quality and wabisabi took the Buffalo mix-and-match approach to the next level. Japan’s own streetwear labels like Visivim, Neighborhood, W-Taps, The Real McCoy and A Bathing Ape (BAPE) took streetwear product quality, exclusivity and price points into luxury brand territory. That didn’t stop BAPE from making a snide versions of various Rolex models under the ‘Bapex’ brand.

    Bapex

    Some two decades later Supreme came up in New York. The brand takes design appropriation and homage to a new level. Every piece Supreme seems to do is a reference to something else. The famous box logo rips from Barbara Kruger’s piece ‘I shop therefore I am’. From taking a snide swipe at consumerism to ending up in the belly of the beast took Supreme a relatively short time. This heritage of appropriation didn’t stop Supreme from using legal means against people it felt had appropriated its ‘look’.

    In an ironic twist of fate, Supreme was sued by Louis Vuitton in 2000 and yet the 2017 collaboration looks exceptionally similar to the offending items…

    The last time I shared this story the page was just at 2k followers. With the collaboration officially announced today- and the page having 40k more followers since then- I figure it’s time to re-share. The year was 2000, and a 6 year old Supreme took their hands at referencing a high fashion brand as they did early on (Burberry, Gucci,) this time with Louis Vuitton. Box Logo tees (and stickers), beanies, 5 panels, bucket hats, and skateboard decks all featured the Supreme Monogram logo (pictured right). Within two weeks, Vuitton sends in a cease and desist and apparently, ordered Supreme to burn the remaining available stock. Clearly, many of the products from 2000 are still in the resell market, circulating today. Now we arrive at today’s FW Louis Vuitton fashion show. As most everyone is aware by now, Supreme is in fact collaborating with the luxury brand for a July- into fall collection. I’ve seen quite a few pieces from the collaboration (20+, check @supreme__hustle @supreme_access and @supreme_leaks_news for more pics) and it’s panning out to be Supremes largest collaboration to date. It’s interesting to see the references of both brands within the collaboration- from old Dapper Dan bootleg Louis pieces, to authentic ones, to Supremes monogram box logo and skateboard desks (pictured left). 17 years later and @mrkimjones proves that time can mend all wounds (amongst other things). Excited to see what all will release alongside this legendary collaboration. #supremeforsale #supreme4sale

    A photo posted by Supreme (@supreme_copies) on

    The new customers

    North East Asia’s fast growing economies had been borne out of learning from developed market expertise, state directed focus on exports and ruthless weeding out of weaker businesses. Intellectual property was cast aside at various points. Korea, Hong Kong, Japan and China went from making knock-off products to displacing Europe and the US as the leading luxury markets.

    Asian luxury consumers, particularly those second generation rich in China were younger than the typical customer luxury brands cater too. These consumers bought product as they travelled taking in style influences as they went. First from nearby markets like Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore and then Korea. This drew from a melange of hip hop, streetwear, Buffalo styling and contemporary western designers like Vivienne Westwood – as well as the more matronly styles of the traditional European luxury houses.

    The luxury brands had to adapt. They brought in new designers who themselves were drawing from similar influences.  These designers also collaborated with sportswear brands like Alexander McQueen and Puma or Jeremy Scott and Raf Simons for Adidas.

    Luxury brands got seriously into new product categories making luxe versions of training shoes that could be charitably called a homage to the like of Nike’s Air Force 1.

    Bringing things full circle

    As the supreme_copies Instagram account notes the collaboration with Supreme and Louis Vuitton brings things full circle with the pieces having a nod to Dapper Dan’s custom work as well as Supreme’s own ‘homage’.  Luxury brand MCM (Michael Cromer München), which Dan borrowed from extensively in the 1980s was restructured in 1997 with shops and brand being sold separately. The brand was eventually acquired eight years later by the Korean Sungjoo Group. Korea now has its own fast developing luxury fashion and cosmetics brand industry. Textile city Deagu which was the likely source of Dapper Dan’s fabric is now a fashion and luxury business hub in its own right. The Korean entertainment industry is a trend setter throughout Asia. For instance, Hallyu drama My Love From A Star drove breakout sales for the Jimmy Choo ‘Abel’ shoe.

    The only question I still have is why did a move like Louis Vuitton’s collaboration with Supreme take so long? The luxury brands spend a lot on customer insight, they were using social listening far longer than they had been on social media. They know that a customer wearing their jacket could have a Visivim backpack slung over the shoulder and a pair of Adidas Stan Smiths on their feet. Customers mix-and-match Buffalo style for all but the most formal occasions. For streetwear brands, collaboration is in their DNA and they get an additional leg-up in the quality stakes. More luxury related posts here.

    More information

    Ray Petri
    How Buffalo shaped the landscape of 80s fashion – Dazed
    Dave Dorrell interview part one | Test Pressing
    Dapper Dan
    Barbara Kruger Responds to Supreme’s Lawsuit: ‘A Ridiculous Clusterf**k of Totally Uncool Jokers’ | Complex
    Volume and wealth make Chinese millennials a lucrative target market: GfK | Luxury Daily
    Just why are Louis Vuitton and other high-end retailers abandoning China? | South China Morning Post – although Chinese shoppers consumed 46 per cent of luxury goods around the world, their purchases in their home market accounted for only 10 per cent of global sales, falling from 11 per cent in 2012 and 13 per cent in 2013
    How a Jimmy Choo Shoe Became a Global Best Seller – WSJ

  • Outside the London bubble

    A quick trip north provided me with a couple of consumer insights from outside the London bubble.

    Business winners

    Discount supermarkets – last time I was in Aldi and Lidl they started featuring brands we’d recognise like Kelloggs cereals. This time there has been a move away from recognised brands.

    Untitled

    Instead, there has been a drive on premium private label products at discount retailers. Consumers have been primed by the likes of Sainsbury’s, Tesco’s Finest and Marks & Spencers. Specially Selected is Aldi’s take on premium private label.

    Untitled

    It is largely indistinguishable from other supermarket premium offerings.  Shoulder surfing at the checkout allowed me to see premium products sprinkled throughout other people’s trolleys.

    Private cab consolidation – Delta Cars was one of a number of private hire cab companies in the Merseyside area. Taking a leaf out of Uber’s book, they now have their own app.
    delta

    They also have scale and muscle, a number of prominent out-of-home display sites were covered with ads for their app and looking for new drivers. In an area of high unemployment there was a veritable war for ‘talent’.

    Secondhand phone shops – in Birkenhead town centre there were four resellers of pre-owned mobile phones. iPhones seemed to do well mainly because they were built to last. Feature phones commanded a premium in comparison to what you got for the the money in a smartphone.

    zanco fly

    These shops also sold really small Chinese-OEM branded GSM phones.  A quick Google shows that they are used by prisoners because they can be hidden on, or in their body.
    Untitled

    Entrepreneurs have made this connection obvious by branding their device HMP – complete with a crown. British prisons are known by the suffix HMP. For instance, HMP Pentonville.

    These secondhand stores also seemed to do a decent trade in pre-owned DVD and to a lesser extent Blu-Ray discs. My Dad didn’t know any people at work who had Netflix. I am going to bring the Apple TV back  one time, just to see how they get on with it.

    Bargain and close-out stores – B&M and Home Bargains are two local brands that have a mix of discounted products from close out DVDs and packaged consumer goods. They often have special pack sizes for items like breakfast cereal. They move away from the Poundland format however also selling electronics goods since they are not restricted to the £1 price. These stores seemed to have the most foot traffic of any I’d seen.

    Pound Bakery versus McDonalds. The Pound Bakery and Pound Cafe provide Greggs-type fodder. The interiors are bright but comfortable. They seem to have stolen at least some foot traffic from the local McDonalds.

    Secondhand clothing – just off the main shopping area was a shop that bought  clothing by weight. It was sorted through – a select few items going on to be sold for vintage, the rest going to be sold abroad or recycled for industrial rags. Trade had been particularly brisk as people wanted money for Christmas. In general, the quality of the haul was disappointing as overseas buyers were not interested in H&M or Primark.

    Business losers

    Petrol stations – there was surprisingly little night time traffic. Consumers are reining in non-essential journeys. Which then begs the question is M&S Food’s move on to the garage forecourt a wise move? This also had implications for night life since people were going out less.

    Cultural winners
    • Can’t pay, we’ll take it away – other people’s misery seemed to be popular entertainment.
    • Shopping television – in particular Idealworld seemed to be a popular back drop instead of talk radio. Talk radio was thought to be ‘too angry’ since Brexit

     

  • Working class + populism

    What now for the working class?

    What now for the working class? Following president Trump’s election and the British plebiscite on European Union membership there has been lots of hand wringing about workers who traditionally participated in legacy industries being outside society.
    We won't pay for their crisis - Mancunian protest sticker
    Here is what we have to deal with:

    • The ‘traditional’ jobs aren’t coming back
    • Middle-class roles are already being disrupted
    • There is a declining  return on investment in further education, yet lifelong learning is a compulsory requirement
    • Globalisation is working at an aggregate level, but isn’t working at a local level
    • Western society has fractured. It will become more fractious once the realisation takes hold that:
    1. It can’t be resolved by simple measures, populists might listen – but can’t solve anything. Jobs are governed by a multiple factors that affect both cost and demand considerations
    2. It can’t be solved in a relatively short time frame. You can’t build the necessary eco-system and supporting industries to bring the jobs back; even if the economics made sense
    3. Governments don’t have their hands on the levers of control, the best governments can do is actively manage decline. Technological disruption puts the levers of control with a smaller group of people
    4. There is a lack of willingness by those with the money and the power to solve it – primarily due to the pressures that drive their behaviour
    5. Existing social welfare safety nets aren’t sustainable

    The realisation that populism doesn’t deliver is likely to cause a further visible outburst of anger. Which should be good news for the private security industry. This could result in civil or international conflict. It has already happened. Factors that contributed to the Arab spring and the Syrian civil war included a large under-employed population living in stagnant economic conditions with no hope in sight. This probably sounds familiar.

    I am ruling out some sort of positive ‘black swan’ event which changes the game completely and provides meaningful work with great wages across societal boundaries. If I could reliably predict these, I would be writing this from my private Airbus A380.

    Instead I can see four broad categories of outcomes, all of which are ugly:

    • Carry on – carrying on isn’t likely to be sustainable as societal pressures go to breaking point
    • Managed decline – from a rational point-of-view the most ‘possible’ solution. Unpalatable from a voter perspective. It begs the question at what point would the UK economy bottom out? Managed decline makes the most sense as an interim measure whilst a country works out what its new place in the world is and charts a path towards it based on careful strategic investments with limited capital
    • Massive investment – presents a number of challenges that make it nearly impossible for western countries. It would require a long term view – unlikely without consensus driven politics with a high level of comity, huge access to credit – again unlikely with highly indebted economy and a slowly declining credit rating like the UK. Would take too long to satisfy angry voters
    • Massive disruption – the dice is thrown in the air as society tears itself apart and the strong gain control – think China’s Cultural Revolution. Wages and worker rights may drop to make them more cost competitive for low skilled manufacturing allowing for an employed but disgruntled workforce. Power is unlikely to shift too much, the corresponding upheaval in population numbers may provide some supply side pressure on wages when its all over. In all likelihood, it would just reduce pressure for change, increased willingness to work together on a longer term solution, but not provide much medium term economic benefit

    Disruption

    Here is a chart of numerous successful business, some of them are over a century old. AT&T and Verizon can trace their history back to 1877 and the Bell Telephone Company set up by Alexander Graham Bell’s father-in-law. General Electric goes back to work by Thomas Edison in 1880. These companies took from 117 – 137 years to become $200 billion businesses. Facebook took ten years requiring only 3% of the people AT&T needed.

    It would be reasonable to assume that the future is going to create less jobs with given investments rather than more.

    Company#EmployeesYear its market capitalisation became US$200 billion
    Facebook9,1992014
    Microsoft27,0001998
    Apple46,6002010
    Alphabet (Google)46,6002012
    Amazon165,0002015
    Verizon176,8002014
    General Electric239,0001997
    AT&T302,0002007

    So large private enterprises will:

    • Employ less people which means less ancillary demand for services in the locale. Less restaurants, shops, artisanal coffee shops, micro breweries, nail bars, car valets, hotels and hair salons
    • Employ even less unskilled people – what unskilled labour is required will be employed on a flexible basis. Their roles will be competing on ‘total price’ with a global workforce and robotics

    This hypothesis is supported by data from the MIT Technology review which showed that modern US manufacturing managed to increase productivity by 250% whilst reducing staff numbers by over 40%.

    Win-Win to Winner Takes All

    Technological progress and globalisation has resulted in a decline in the middle class in western countries. Pew Research claims that the US middle class declined from 61 per cent of the population in 1970 to 50 per cent by 2015.

    Corresponding average ‘real wages’ for US ‘good producing’ workers peaked by the mid-1970s and have been broadly stagnant since. A pattern mirrored in other developed economies. Hong Kong saw a similar peak from 1967 riots through to the early 1990s until factories moved across the border.

    Manufacturing productivity had grown steadily over that time. You can argue over the data points but the overall trend seems to hold true.

    Owners of capital have enjoyed increased returns versus the providers of labour. Knowledge work, a key part of middle class roles could be easier to export than production lines. A classic example is the bank back office roles that have been exported to India.

    Supply chain

    At the moment UK manufacturing jobs operate as part of a complex supply chain that primarily addresses the European Union as a market. The supply chain is built around a number of factors:

    • The value of the product
    • The weight of the product
    • The volume of the product
    • The cost of shipping versus the cost of production
    • How well the product travels
    • Distribution of product demand
    • Proximity to suppliers
    • Proximity to talent

    This is why companies may package a product in one country and manufacturer in others. Washing powder is a classic example of this. Chocolate travels well, so Cadbury could move production lines of internationally popular products to Poland. There is a greater incentive to move low skilled work out of areas that aren’t geographically central to a given supply chain.  European freedom of movement may have kept jobs in the UK by allowing low and semi-skilled workers to move rather than the factories. This would be of little consolation to UK workers, but would benefit UK tax coffers.

    This complex formula is the reason why jobs move in and out of the UK.

    Cutting the UK out of this supply chain with a hard Brexit ensures that suppliers have to make complex choices. BMW will probably be wondering what UK presence it needs to maintain in order to keep the Mini brand values. It may decide its easier to evolve the quirky Britishness out of the brand over time and just keep it quirky. The Audi TT hasn’t been harmed by actually being assembled in Hungary.

    The majority of components in the supply chain for the Mini production line is based in Germany.

    A post-Brexit UK could be in the position of importing more rather than less products once companies take into account the bigger picture of the supply chains and the EU single market. This will lead to a net loss of working class livelihoods.

    Role of eco-systems

    Richard Florida is a Canadian professor who has spent much of his time looking at urban studies from the perspective of prosperity. He is known for is work around the creative class and urban regeneration (or gentrification). His work is controversial. One key concept he has of relevance to working-class communities is one of ‘clusters’ where eco-systems exist.  When you apply it to traditional working class industries one can see how the jobs aren’t just going to come back. The UK has a series of traditional clusters that are in overall decline, this is best illustrated by the state of chemical, oil refinery and coal sectors which underpin a wide range of manufacturing industries.

    Where new clusters spring up (Silicon Roundabout and the FinTech businesses within the Square Mile) they create employment that much of the UK population is ill-equipped to fulfil.

    Let’s look in greater depth at traditional manufacturing industries that have provided the working class with good playing jobs.

    Factories build on suppliers, who build on raw materials processors, who build on utilities and extractive industries. Take for example industrial revolution era Stoke-on-Trent which was close to high quality clay pits and coal that could be cheaply shipped in from mines in Lancashire or South Yorkshire. All of which required semi-skilled and unskilled jobs that gave the working class their livelihoods.

    Unfortunately for Stoke-on-Trent; clay is readily available around the world, opening up the possibility of production in areas with cheap labour. Automation raised the quality of production and fashion can quickly dictate whether an ‘area’ brand is in demand.

    If we look at the industrial landscape of the United Kingdom, the manufacturing industry has been hollowed away during the 1980s and 1990s. The UK lost 18% of its manufacturing capacity in the space of 18 months during the conservative government of Margaret Thatcher.

    There has been a corresponding (likely terminal) decline in the necessary facilities to support an industrial economy. Now let’s look in-depth at three essential types of facilities that underpin manufacturing:

    • Oil refineries
    • Coal mines
    • Chemical plants

    This base of the UK industrial eco-system is running on ‘life support’ in critical areas.

    I was fortunate to have a great science teacher at school, he once said to me that you could measure the size and health of an industrial economy by the amount of sulphuric and hydrochloric acid it manufactured and consumed. In order to manufacture hydrochloric acid you need a chlorine gas plant – neither chemical is something you want to transport over long distances. The side effects of a leak would be catastrophic.

    The UK currently has one plant to make chlorine gas that is government subsidised because there isn’t a sufficiently large industrial base to support continued profitable production. What industrial capacity is in the UK is perilously close to being snuffed out.

    What is left of the UK chemical industry has consolidated in the North East of England Process Industry Cluster (NEEPIC). Some of the products created are intermediary chemicals for use elsewhere in the European Union. Brexit is likely to have a disruptive effect on some of these manufacturers. The cluster is a key reason why Nissan decided to build a manufacturing plant in Sunderland. NEEPIC is dependent on oil refining capacity for key chemical building blocks (feedstock).

    Oil refineries

    Oil refineries are considered by the public as providers of petrol (gasoline), diesel and jet fuel. The reality is that they provide feedstock (chemical building blocks) for most things in everyday life:

    • Foods
    • Medicines (or we can go back to leeches and blood letting)
    • Paints (containers, large manufactured goods, civil engineering)
    • Dyes to colour fabrics, plastics and other materials
    • Plastics (the modern world as we know it) – structural plastics, coatings, fibres including clothing textiles

    As I write this is, it is easier to look around my desk and count the products that don’t have an oil-derived input – one item, the desk itself which is unpainted. Though I would put good money on it that the trees it was made from were felled with petrol chain saw and transported on a diesel-powered lorry to the saw mill.

    Yet the UK has lost a huge amount of oil refining capacity. From 1974 – 2012 refining capacity almost halved from 148 million tonnes to 77 million tonnes (Energy Institute). This decline happened despite start of UK North sea oil production in 1975.

    Peak production on North Sea oil occurring in 1985 and 1999 (two peaks due to technological innovation). There were 22 active oil refineries in 1974, at the time of writing there are now seven.

    Part of this was driven by changing energy consumption such as the decline of home heating oil and more fuel efficient cars. But a good deal would be due to reduced ability to compete against foreign petro-chemical feedstocks and reduced industrial capacity.

    Oil refining capacity has moved to closer to where the industry is.

    Belgium and the Netherlands have oil refining capacity beyond their internal needs because of their ease of access to continental European markets. Germany as Europe’s industrial powerhouse has the largest refining capacity in the European Union – which matches its industrial economy.

    Much of the capacity to provide chemical feedstocks for industrial use has moved to the Far East; notably Singapore, Japan, Korea, Jamnagar in India and China. Overall industrial production has moved to East and Southeast Asia.

    Coal production

    The working class found coal production as a source of working class jobs. Even coal production in the UK is roughly 10 percent of what it was in 1980. There are no deep coal mines active in the UK, only a handful of open cast mines. Coal is not only useful as a fuel but also a alternative supplier of feedstock for a diverse range of products including fertilisers, plastics and medicines. Even if coal comes back to prominence as oil reserves run out it would take a lot of effort to get UK production going again – perhaps too much effort.

    Managed decline of traditional working class areas

    The purpose of managed decline would be to concentrate efforts where they can make the most impact. London would draw in more people from the hinterlands. Cities like Liverpool would continue to decline in population. Low quality housing (think trailer parks or shanty towns) would cater for the internally displaced workers and there would be a likely increase in casual or gig economy roles in place of many working class roles.

    So what would managed decline of working class areas look like? We have a clue from government discussions after the 1981 Toxteth riots. Lord Geoffrey Howe wrote a letter which was considered too controversial at the time

    “I fear that Merseyside is going to be much the hardest nut to crack,”

    “We do not want to find ourselves concentrating all the limited cash that may have to be made available into Liverpool and having nothing left for possibly more promising areas such as the West Midlands or, even, the North East.

    “It would be even more regrettable if some of the brighter ideas for renewing economic activity were to be sown only on relatively stony ground on the banks of the Mersey.”

    “I cannot help feeling that the option of managed decline is one which we should not forget altogether. We must not expend all our limited resources in trying to make water flow uphill.”

    Howe realised that even discussing the concept at the time would be explosive.

    Retrenchment to focus economically

    In practical terms, it would mean:

    • Re-centralising government departments
    • Not spending on infrastructure beyond critical maintenance
    • Rationalising government support infrastructure: police, hospitals, social services
    • Re-zoning areas from a planning perspective to encourage development only in future clusters
    • Allowing local government to go into bankruptcy protection and under go US-style emergency management
    • Once population decline hits a critical mass, turning off the last services, rather like the city of Detroit has done
    • Focus infrastructure investment on ‘clusters’
    • Connecting benefits to re-location

    This process would then give time for western countries; in particular the UK, to re-invent themselves and think about their economic purpose in the world beyond consumption.

    The Chinese government have already started on this process whilst their economy is still in a high state of growth – looking to move up the manufacturing value chain, moving into the professional and financial services sectors that the west currently occupy. On the flip side they have not flinched from closing down excess capacity in the steel industry and low value industries. This is causing economic hardship amongst unskilled workers in Guongzhou and the steel towns of Hubei province.

    Former clothing factories are being bulldozed to make way for corporate campuses. Small electronics factories in Shenzhen are making way for a financial services centre including a stock exchange.

    If one thinks about the Chinese experience and their migration to higher value work, where would the UK go next and what does mean for the future of the British working class?

    More information

  • September 11

    15 years ago on September 11, 2001 I worked agency side in Haymarket in London’s west end  for Edelman. It was a normal day. Well as normal is it gets when you are in the middle of the dot com bust fallout. It was a mix of mobile businesses trying to ride the mobile internet wave and service providers for the soon to launch 3G mobile networks. Alongside this was helping dot com businesses try to find their place in the new world.

    My job meant working on communications programmes for the European subsidiaries of technology companies. This was to reflect a ‘business as usual’ face to their customers. This allowed the European subsidiaries to keep their businesses largely intact so that they could be sold off to help bail out the financial hole that the US parent company had made.

    The businesses had grown on generous venture capital payments, share placements and bank loans. The dot com bust suddenly meant that there was a surplus of servers, network switches, bandwidth, commercial space and Herman Miller Aeron chairs.

    Due to the nature of the business I worked closely with colleagues on the finance team because I spoke ‘geek’ and understood how screwed these clients happened to be.

    The financial and corporate teams worked for a number of clients, notably Cantor Fitzgerald. They were to lose two thirds of their personnel by the end of the day.

    It was early afternoon, when I realised that something was up. We had TVs around the agency that often weren’t on. This time they were all turned to Sky News, which was running the footage. After the troubles and bombings in Beirut, it wasn’t a complete surprise to see another landmark attack – at least at first.

    Once the scale sunk in, then the realisation of how different the world was going to be after September 11 started to dawn on me. More related content here.

  • Brexit & more news

    BREXIT – Letter to MPs from a Remain voter: a plea for realism, tolerance and honesty – this gives a great background read on how the UK chose to go Brexit. It’s also a blueprint of how project fear is likely to turn into project understating the full calamity

    Osborne abandons 2020 budget surplus target – BBC News – he wasn’t likely to meet it anyway but this emphasises how bad it is

    Juncker on EU critics: Nobody says what they want – POLITICO – no one in Brussels could have stopped the Brexit train

    How Britain stays in the EU – POLITICO – err no it probably won’t. The most interesting thing for me was leavers saying, I won’t benefit but I want others to suffer too

    The New Furby Definitely Will Not Kill You In Your Sleep | Refinery 29 – it was only a matter of time for an app enabled Furby

    We broadcast from TV to Facebook Live for 24 hours. Here’s what we learned. — Medium – In addition to not getting a push notification, we believe that Continuous Live Videos are not distributed in the News Feed in a similar way to their non-Continuous counterparts. When we started our first stream on Thursday, we wondered how Facebook’s News Feed algorithm would deal with a 24-hour video. The answer, it seems, was simple: it doesn’t – some great insights via the Aljazeera labs team

    News Feed FYI: Helping Make Sure You Don’t Miss Stories from Friends | Facebook Newsroom – pages downgraded again in audience feeds

    Huawei MateBook review: this tablet wants to be a PC, but misses the basics | The Verge – triumph of design over usefulness, poor battery life.

    Group M sues Ebiquity over ‘misuse’ of confidential documents | Campaign – interesting case, if I was a client of WPP I would be asking why

    Line Files to Go Public | CCS Insight – really nice history of LINE messenger

    Pro-‘Brexit’ City of Sunderland Glad to Poke Establishment in the Eye – The New York Times – “We’re segregated from the south, and the north is a barren wasteland,” he said, wearing a heavy black leather jacket with metal studs despite the summer heat. “It’s us against them.” “The E.U. is a mystery to us,” he added. “We’ve never heard about it up here.”

    Mobile app shops: Diversify or die | VentureBeat – because downloads are declining