Category: online | 線上 | 온라인으로 | オンライン

The online field has been one of the mainstays since I started writing online in 2003. My act of writing online was partly to understand online as a medium.

Online has changed in nature. It was first a destination and plane of travel. Early netizens saw it as virgin frontier territory, rather like the early American pioneers viewed the open vistas of the western United States. Or later travellers moving west into the newly developing cities and towns from San Francisco to Los Angeles.

America might now be fenced in and the land claimed, but there was a new boundless electronic frontier out there. As the frontier grew more people dialled up to log into it. Then there was the metaphor of web surfing. Surfing the internet as a phrase was popularised by computer programmer Mark McCahill. He saw it as a clear analogue to ‘channel surfing’ changing from station to station on a television set because nothing grabs your attention.

Web surfing tapped into the line of travel and 1990s cool. Surfing like all extreme sport at the time was cool. And the internet grabbed your attention.

Broadband access, wi-fi and mobile data changed the nature of things. It altered what was consumed and where it was consumed. The sitting room TV was connected to the internet to receive content from download and streaming services. Online radio, podcasts and playlists supplanted the transistor radio in the kitchen.

Multi-screening became a thing, tweeting along real time opinions to reality TV and live current affairs programmes. Online became a wrapper that at its worst envelopes us in a media miasma of shrill voices, vacuous content and disinformation.

  • The Google search post

    the Charles Arthur wrote an an interesting analysis piece on Google search business which I have linked to in the more information section called Google’s growing problem: 50% of people do zero searches per day on mobile.

    According to Fortune, Google search and display advertising counted for 90 per cent of Google’s revenue stream in 2014. By comparison Tencent makes just 17 per cent of its revenue from advertising; its revenue instead comes from payments  a la PayPal, premium accounts (brands pay for specialist facilities on WeChat for instance) virtual goods including gaming and stickers. Whilst Google has tried to diversify beyond advertising (payments, paid for content on YouTube, enterprise product sales), it has failed to change the balance of revenue. Any disruption of their Google search advertising unit represents an existential threat to their business.

    The key points in Charles Arthur’s article:

    • Consumers are using apps on smartphones rather than searching for a given services (which puts to rest the app versus mobile web argument mobile developers have)
    • This will have a more pronounced effect as the world internet population starts to level out next year
    • New internet users in the developing world may not be worth having (from a commercial perspective ‘An ad click from the US/Germany/Japan/Taiwan can be worth from 5 cents to $1 depending on the day/season, but clicks from China/India/Brazil/Vietnam are worth fractions of a penny to maybe 1 penny’

    Arthur’s assertions represent a huge change in consumer behaviour. Working for Yahoo! in the mid-naughties, we used to cite a Morgan Stanley quoted statistic that seven out of ten web journeys started with search. Search Engine Journal cites Forrester as the source of a claim that 93% of online experiences started with search.
    Mobile application is just one part of a wider change:

    • Google started to see a decline in the growth rate of search volumes to about 10 per cent a year, yet the amount content to be indexed continues to rise on a non-linear scale
    • Whilst the internet usage has been expanded by cheaper broadband with wi-fi and the rise mobile devices (both feature phones and smartphones) there hasn’t been a universal adoption of the open web. Yes smartphones have apps which disrupts the open web, but in places like Indonesia a lot of new feature phone surfing netizens don’t realise they are online and only go as far as Facebook
    • Amazon has risen as a wide ranging threat to Google. If you want to buy a book, many people’s evoked set is to go on Amazon. Amazon is not only an e-tailer but a vertical search engine across an increasing number of retail categories. Eric Schmidt claimed that about 30 per cent of purchase web journeys started on Amazon, that represents a significant lost opportunity for Google

    More information
    Google’s growing problem: 50% of people do zero searches per day on mobile | The Overspill
    10 Stats to Justify SEO | Search Engine Journal
    Is Tencent leading the way or lagging behind Facebook? | Walk The Chat
    In online search war, it’s Google vs. Amazon | Fortune
    Google’s Eric Schmidt: “Really, Our Biggest Search Competitor Is Amazon” | Search Engine Land
    Amazon Vs. Google: Understanding the buyer’s search engine | Wordtracker
    Millions of Facebook users have no idea they’re using the internet | Quartz
    Google Search Stats | Internet Live Stats

  • Asian FMCG + more things

    Asian FMCG gain ground on global brands in their home market | Kantar World Panel – MNCs losing out to own local Asian FMCG brands. Local Asian FMCG brands are more nimble and are closer to the customer. There is also a changing attitude to (western) MNCs – as consumer’s nationalistic sentiments in markets like China and India start to manifest itself in their shopping basket. More FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) related content here.

    Alibaba just offered $3.6 billion to take over the YouTube of China | Quartz – it makes sense. Tencent has been challenging Alibaba in other areas and already has the QQ video platform. QQ however isn’t as big in terms of views as YouKu / Tudou. The most obvious opportunities around YouKu/Tudou for Alibaba are selling online media a la Amazon and (QQ Video in China) and social commerce with life video a la the Home Shopping Network – but done by influencers on their own channels

    China’s big media challenge | Marketing Interactive – twice as many touch points required compared to just five years ago. A huge decline in media effectiveness

    W+K Shanghai Gets Inspirational in New Tiffany’s Campaign | AdWeek – focus on confidence rather than status in a series of documentary type videos (paywall)

    Getting LEAN with Digital Ad UX | IAB – Light Encrypted Ad choice supported Non invasive ads

    Twitter now shows advertisers which ads perform better | VentureBeat – smart move by Twitter

    TeliaSonera accused of making €1.8bn in corrupt payments | TotalTelecom – some interesting reading

    China’s middle class has overtaken the US’s to become the world’s largest | Quartz – pure numbers

    China’s `Big Three’ e-commerce platforms extend lead | Kantar China – interesting how JD comes out top in the benchmarking

    Facebook Goes On Privacy Offensive in Europe | WSJ – (paywall)

    Aspirationals: Who are they and why they matter to marketers | Marketing Interactive – positive about outlook so more likely to consume?

  • AT and T & more things

    Contact AT and T’s CEO, hear back from his lawyer – LA Times – this sounds like a PR train wreck for AT and T. AT and T aren’t having their needs served by the lawyer’s conduct

    China—not online porn—is why Playboy is dumping nude photographs | Quartz – its all about licensed clothing and other products

    The world’s most popular app will soon be where you do your shopping, too | Quartz – geofenced Facebook ads anyone?

    I, Cringely Dell buys EMC and gets the corporate cloud for free – I, Cringely – on the money analysis by Bob Cringely

    IoT Net Gets Boost in Europe | EE Times – how will this affect Qualcomm et al?

    PC Sales Plummet in Q3 | EE Times – interesting decoupling between OS upgrade and hardware upgrade on the Windows eco-system

    Andy Rubin: AI Is The Future Of Computing, Mobility | EE Times – driven by data from IoT etc – there will be a need for machine learning analysis

    Laser surveys light up open data | Creating a better place – UK Environment Agency data, would probably be also handy for anyone with cruise missiles

    Luxury brand Marc Jacobs abandons Tsim Sha Tsui – mainland purchase down and high rents I guess. More luxury related posts here

    SMARTPHONES: Price Wars Topple Huawei, ZTE Supplier – Bottom line: The bankruptcy of a major component supplier to ZTE and Huawei is the latest sign of stress in the overheated smartphone sector

    Bankruptcies in China pose challenge for foreign creditors | SCMP – quite handy primer (paywall)

    DEXTER – Yahoo! Pipes worthy successor

    Twitter’s Next Hail Mary, Project Lightning, Has Arrived | Re/code – I think the key targets on this are Google News, Flipboard and Apple’s News functionality

    Google’s Search Boss Talks Surviving and Thriving in an App World (Full Video) – Amit Singhal says Google will not only survive the transition to mobile apps, but will thrive in it

  • Shop OS versus mobile OS

    I decided to write this post to reflect on the very different visions of digital retailing that consumers are currently experiencing. I’ve labelled these two visions mobile OS and Shop OS respectively.

    The Mobile OS

    Qkr!I went to Wagamama with some colleagues from Racepoint where we were encouraged to all download Qkr!. Qkr! is an application that was developed by MasterCard rather than the restaurant, it isn’t exclusive to Wagamama either. MasterCard has built the application with a view to building a wide eco-system merchants. It is notable that the application is actually card issuer agnostic, so I was able to set up an account with a Visa card. Wagamama bribed us with free desserts to download the application, so they clearly have some skin in the game. We downloaded it, set up our account with at least one mode of payment, our email address and a password. One of us became the host and gave us all a number which was our common bill. We could order straight from the app and food was supposed to arrive. When we wanted to pay we selected our items and paid our share of the bill. A couple of us only had cash, so they paid a friend and the friend paid on the app. If I am absolutely honest with you, it was a lot of work for casual dining and but for everyone around the table working in technology marketing (and so having a modicum of curiosity about things app-related) – it probably wouldn’t have had us all on board. Now that we have the app on our phone, I could see Qkr! hoping that we use it regularly and likely try and steer us to its merchant network though notifications and special offers. From Wagamama’s point-of-view it saves them from building, testing and maintaining a bespoke application. There are also presumably productivity benefits from reducing the order taking staff required. Qkr! didn’t prevent Wagamama from making mistakes with our order and we ended up one chocolate cake down. Contrast this with the approach that McDonalds have rolled out in their new (to me) Cambridge Circus branch. The area between the counter and the entrance is dominated by a series of vertical kiosks. Digital McDonalds

    These kiosks contain an identical touch screen interface

    Digital McDonalds

    With a basic card reader on the bottom, there is no Apple Pay or NFC facilities, just a chip and PIN reader. The touch screen menu takes you through a smartphone app like experience, if smartphones came with 27 inch screens. Once payment was successfully received, you then received a deli counter style receipt Digital McDonalds

    And collected from a counter when your number appeared on the screen

    Digital McDonalds

    This is all designed to reduce consumer interaction and improve efficiency in the restaurant, if there was any way to cheapen the McDonalds’ experience making you queue like an Argos seems like the ideal way to go. The logical progression for this would be to move back to the Automat format (presumably this time using some sort of algorithm to optimise production. automat

    The irony of it all is that the rise of fast food restaurants like McDonalds killed off the Automat as a trend in North America and many Automats were converted into Burger King franchises.

    Both Wagamama and McDonalds may have had some efficiency gains but lost out in terms of brand experience, they moved a bit further towards commoditised casual dining and fast food respectively – which goes against the brand equity that they have striven hard to build over decades.

    Shop OS offers some advantages over Mobile OS, you can standardise on the hardware to reduce coding and testing requirements. It is ideal for tourists who may not want to roam on foreign mobile networks, nor be able to navigate free wi-fi offerings. The flip side is that there isn’t the same opportunity to capture customer data and behaviour, the notification screen on the smartphone is a key place for brands to intercept the customer using geofencing.

  • Microsoft Windows event

    I’ve been in-and-out of meetings that prevented me from reflecting fully on the Microsoft Windows 10 event of October 7, 2015. Microsoft put a lot of content out there which is worthwhile picking through. I have put these items in the order that they occur to me rather than an order of importance.
    Windows 10 : Everything You Need To Know About

    Microsoft Windows 10 is designed to run on a wide range of devices, a by-product of this is that the PC on your desk maybe a phone connected to a screen and keyboard. Now this may not work for all applications, but it could be enough for browser-based needs. It also means that bring-your-own-device could move beyond having your email on your phone.

    The Surface Pro 4

    Whilst Microsoft has undergone a regime change since the launch of the original Surface, somethings haven’t changed. I think that the Surface Pro 4 represents a continued effort to decapitate the Microsoft PC eco-system. The targets in the frame are devices like:

    • Lenovo La Vie Z
    • Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro
    • H-P Spectre 13x 360
    • Dell XPS 13

    All of these devices broadly fit into the 13 ultra notebook format that Apple plays in, but I think that the goal is to maximise Microsoft’s revenue share of the Windows eco-system. The hardware design hasn’t done the wider Microsoft brand any harm at all.

    New Lumia devices

    The 950 and 950XL put Microsoft in the game, at least from a hardware perspective with the Android eco-system, comparing favourably on hardware specifications with the likes of Huawei, LG and Samsung. What I found more interesting is the allusion in Microsoft’s own commentary of the event that the phones would face a gradual rollout in markets and Microsoft wouldn’t be rolling it out to all markets in Europe.  Don’t necessarily expect to see these handsets being rolled out in multi-national companies without an extensive availability and support network.

    Whilst mobile network providers would like a third eco-system to reduce the power of Android and iPhone, there doesn’t seem to have been universal carrier acceptance of the devices. This maybe partly due to the tighter integration of Skype in the Windows 10 OS?

    Xbox on Windows 10

    Xbox need to bring more customers on board and having backwards compatibility with Xbox 360 games provides a more cost effective gaming experience thanks to eBay and other used console game exchanges. It also does beg the question about possible non-gaming or even enterprise use that could be made of the new Xbox (beyond running Linux on them).

    Rolling out an OS so universal as Windows 10 is an interesting move. It presents some risks:

    • Compromised user experience due to different user contexts (gaming, business desktop computing, consumer PC usage, tablet experiences). A touch orientated interface on a laptop is sub-optimal for content creators who can touch type for example
    • Bloat due to the ‘Swiss Army knife’ requirements catering at a core level for different form factors and displays

    More information
    The Secret of iOS 7 | I, Cringely
    Final 2014 prediction: the end of the PC as we knew it | I, Cringely
    Thoughts on Microsoft Surface | renaissance chambara
    Skype in Windows 10 Preview: Built into Windows 10 so you can do more with friends across devices | Big Blog (Skype owned blog)
    Windows 10 Devices: a new chapter | Microsoft News