Category: technology | 技術 | 기술 | テクノロジー

It’s hard to explain to someone who didn’t live through it how transformation technology has been. When I was a child a computer was something mysterious. My Dad has managed to work his way up from the shop floor of the shipyard where he worked and into the planning office.

One evening he broad home some computer paper. I was fascinated by the the way the paper hinged on perforations and had tear off side edges that allowed it to be pulled through the printer with plastic sprockets connecting through holes in the paper.

My Dad used to compile and print off work orders using an ICL mainframe computer that was timeshared by all the shipyards that were part of British Shipbuilders.

I used the paper for years for notes and my childhood drawings. It didn’t make me a computer whiz. I never had a computer when I was at school. My school didn’t have a computer lab. I got to use Windows machines a few times in a regional computer labs. I still use what I learned in Excel spreadsheets now.

My experience with computers started with work and eventually bought my own secondhand Mac. Cut and paste completely changed the way I wrote. I got to use internal email working for Corning and internet connectivity when I went to university. One of my friends had a CompuServe account and I was there when he first met his Mexican wife on an online chatroom, years before Tinder.

Leaving college I set up a Yahoo! email address. I only needed to check my email address once a week, which was fortunate as internet access was expensive. I used to go to Liverpool’s cyber cafe with a friend every Saturday and showed him how to use the internet. I would bring any messages that I needed to send pre-written on a floppy disk that also held my CV.

That is a world away from the technology we enjoy now, where we are enveloped by smartphones and constant connectivity. In some ways the rate of change feels as if it has slowed down compared to the last few decades.

Klad + more stuff

Klad

Klad is a new trends in illegal drug distribution. Klad sprang out of the online anonymity of the darknet. Breaking Klad: Russia’s Dead Drop Drug Revolution | Global Initiative goes into detail about how the Klad system works. Klad seems to be the narcotics equivalent of an Amazon locker. The customer pays the money via a dark web service and is directed to a concealed geocache with their product in it. These caches are refreshed by low level network members whose soul role is to service the klad network.

Understanding Russia’s darknet markets and the logistics systems underpinning it offers insight into the future of drug trafficking (and other crimes) worldwide.

Klad is likely to be further complicated by the tight linkage between the Russian state and international organised crime groups.

China

Blackpink’s Lisa ignites controversy on Chinese socials with cabaret performance | Jing Daily – an old article but shows the tension of feminist and male-centric themes, modern mindset versus tradition.

Consumer behaviour

The Future of Men from TEDWomen 2017 – by Jack Myers

Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events – The Lancet Planetary Health – more data supporting the idea of climate despair – poor mental health related to concerns about climate change.

The Game Theory of Democracy – The New York Times – Adam Przeworski developed a theory that democracy is best understood as a game, one in which the players pursue power and resolve conflicts through elections rather than brute force. Democracies thrive when politicians believe they are better off playing by the rules of that game — even when they lose elections as it maximises their self-interest over time. It works when the stakes of power remain relatively low, so that people don’t fear electoral defeat so much that they seek other methods reversing it. Winners of elections need to act with restraint. They can’t make life miserable for the losers, or foreclose the possibility that future elections would allow the losers to win. But recent years suggest that even “working” democracies can be far more fragile than was once believed; Przeworski doesn’t see an obvious way to protect it from being weakened further.

Using F-word at work is no sacking offence in the north, rules judge | The Times – As rude as the comment was, the so-called f-word had become commonplace “in the public sphere” — and that was particularly the case in the north of England. “Mong” is a derogatory term for someone with a learning disability, especially related to Down’s syndrome, and is also used as a synonym for “idiot”. Shergill was hearing a claim from Robert Ogden, who was said to have made the jibe during an office discussion about doughnuts and losing weight. His colleague was said to have felt “violated and shocked” by the remark and was left in tears before reporting Ogden to bosses, who eventually sacked him. Ogden is now in line for compensation after the judge ruled that his “lawless and toxic” office was rife with similar comments.

Design

Ideas We Love: Re.Uniqlo Studio

Energy

Norway’s electric car sales set new world record | VoA

Finance

Inside Goldman Sachs’ years-long power struggle over its China venture FT – Goldman Sachs had their face ripped off and they are still enthusiastic about the Chinese market. Senior executives gave themselves bonuses while the business shelled out a billion dollars for very little. In addition, looking at market timing it’s unlikely Goldman Sachs will realistically get the kind of returns their shareholders would want ever.

FMCG

Starbucks needs to cut the crap from its brand positioning | MarketingWeek – Starbucks is more than coffee. It does have brand appeal. But it’s more basic than its highfalutin mission would have you believe. It’s a combination of being in the right places to answer the right category needs at the right time, with a small but not unimportant wedge of American quality and efficient delivery.

There is plenty of brand equity in Starbucks, it’s just apparent that Starbucks never actually worked out what it was. Professor Dolly Parton has the best definition for positioning: find out who you are and do it on purpose. To use her analogy, Starbucks never got to first base never mind second.

Yes, Starbucks grew under Schultz’s second tenure. He was an exceptional leader twice over. However, there was a vacuity within the brand that was palpable when you entered its stores. The commoditisation of Starbucks that Schultz spotted so brilliantly continued, offset by other excellent decisions that kept it growing.

The brand’s nonsensical mission statement did not harm it. It did not lose the company money. But its fundamental stupidness and overreach meant that the potential benefits of a more prosaic, practical, accurate position were missed. A problem deferred. Contrast with Why am I optimistic about Starbucks China ☕ | Following the Yuan

Gadgets

Why has the Internet of Things failed? « Pete Warden’s blog

Interesting video by The Verge that covers how supply chains are crippling cassette players and compact disc players. Bottle necks include magnetic heads, cassette mechanisms (one factory in China makes a bad dupe of an old Japanese company design), laser pick-ups and compact disc mechanisms have a similar problem. The programme also misses out that the likes of Dolby Labs no longer licence their noise reduction technology.

Health

Telehealth’s GLP-1 ‘gold rush’ is powered by these medical groups | STAT News

Hispanics and Mental Health: Gaming as a Pathway to Self-Care | Ideas Exchange by Klick Health

Hong Kong moves to restrict business use of medical terms such as ‘treatment’, ‘clinical’ | South China Morning Post – Under the planned ban, which has already been added to the Private Healthcare Facilities Ordinance but not yet enforced, premises other than licensed healthcare facilities or exempted clinics would not be allowed to use terms such as “clinical”, “healthcare”, “medical”, “treatment” and “therapeutic”. Currently, it is not uncommon to see such descriptions used in non-medical settings. An online check by the Post found a gym claiming it could offer “targeted pain treatment” with a procedure called myofascial release. Another centre also claimed to treat various pain conditions “commonly seen in the city” by stretch therapy.

Hong Kong

Trump, Harris both like ‘poison’ for Beijing, says former top US envoy to Hong Kong | South China Morning Post – while the story leads on Kurt Tong being the former US consul general – you could rewrite the precise of the article as head of strategic advisory firm advises Hong Kong to employ advocacy tactics to detoxify Hong Kong government reputation in Washington (presumably including lobbying and think tanks).

Innovation

Watching Nintendo think out loud about radar and music (Interconnected)

Marketing

Great video hosted by Kantar featuring Mark Ritson on the benefits of consistency in brand building. I can’t embed here, you have to go to YouTube to watch it.

Huddle 001 – Is strategy sick? – Outside Perspective

Media

OnlyFans Has Paid $20 Billion to Creators Since 2016, CEO Says | Variety

Retailing

Asos CEO ‘not worried’ about Vinted or Shein despite mounting losses | Retail Gazette – interesting. I wonder how the brand building work is going? I have seen lots of ads, but they’ve felt disjointed and flat

John Lewis partners with Klarna for ‘buy now pay later’ option – Retail Gazette – the middle class now need the digital equivalent of ‘lay away’ – not a great economic indicator

Security

Chinese Group Accused of Hacking Singtel in Telecom Attacks – Bloomberg

Software

Split mixed tracks with LANDR Stems | SOS – this is huge

Style

Kizik Hires Nike Footwear Veteran Andreas Harlow as SVP of Design – Footwear News – moving prior to the new CEO Harlow was responsible for design of the Jordan line of footwear, but makes sense when you read my John Donahue and Nike related post.

Technology

She Built a Microcomputer Empire From Her Suburban Home | Every

Telecoms

Interesting article on the state of the internet. It looks as if the network might be maturing: Is the (US) Internet Really Slowing? – On my Om

November 20, 2024
Layers of the future
This post about layers of the future was inspired by an article that I read in the EE News. The article headline talked in absolutes: The external power adapter Is dead. The reality is usually much more complex. The future doesn’t arrive complete; instead we have layers of the future.

Science fiction as an indicator.

The 1936 adaption by Alexander Korda of HG Wells The Shape of Things To Come shows a shiny complete new utopia. It is a tour-de-force of art deco design, but loses somewhat in believability because of its complete vision.

https://youtu.be/knOd-BhRuCE?si=HfIDYsaa7nUZKrYE

This is partly explained away by a devastating war, largely influenced by the Great War which had demonstrated the horrendous power of artillery and machine guns. The implication being that the layers of architecture assembled over the years had been literally blown away. So architects and town planners would be working from a metaphorical clean sheet, if you ignore land ownership rights, extensive rubble, legacy building foundations and underground ground works like water pipes, sewers, storm drains and cable ducting.

In real-life, things aren’t that simple. Britain’s major cities were extensively bombed during the war. The country went under extensive rebuilding in the post-war era. Yet even in cities like Coventry that were extensively damaged you still have a plurality of architecture from different ages.

In the City of London, partly thanks to planning permission 17th century architecture exists alongside modern tower blocks.

Contrast the blank sheet approach of Things To Come with the immersive story nature of anime Ghost In The Shell; which based its architecture on Hong Kong.

You can see a mix of modern skyscrapers, tong tau-style tenements and post-war composite buildings that make the most of Hong Kong’s space. Given Hong Kong’s historically strong real estate marketplace, there are very strong incentives to build up new denser land uses, yet layers of architecture from different ages still exist.

COBOL and other ‘dead’ languages.

If you look at computer history, you realise that it is built on layers. Back in the 1960s computing was a large organisation endeavour. A good deal of these systems ran on COBOL, a computer language created in 1958. New systems were being written in COBOL though the mid-2000s for banks and stock brokerages. These programmes are still maintained, many of them still going long after the people who wrote them had retired from the workforce.

These systems were run on mainframe computers, though some of these have been replaced by clusters of servers. IBM still serves its Z-series of mainframe computers. Mainframe computing has even been moved to cloud computing services.

In 1966, MUMPS was created out of a National Institute of Health project at Massachusetts General Hospital. The programming language was built out of frustration to support high performing databases. MUMPS has gone on to support health systems around the world and projects within the European Space Agency.

If you believe the technology industry all of these systems have been dead and buried by:
- Various computer languages
- Operating systems like UNIX, Linux and Windows
- Minicomputers
- Workstations
- PCs and Macs
- Smartphones and tablets
- The web
At a more prosaic level infrastructure like UK railway companies, German businesses and Japanese government departments have been using fax machines over two decades since email became ubiquitous in businesses and most households in the developed world.

The adoption curve.

The adoption curve is a model that shows how products are adopted. The model was originally proposed by academic Everett Rogers in his book Diffusion of Innovations, published in 1962. The blue line is percentage of new users over time and the yellow line is an idealised market penetration. However, virtually no innovations get total adoption. My parents don’t have smartphones, friends don’t have televisions. There are some people that still live off the grid in developed countries without electricity or indoor plumbing.

When you look at businesses and homes, different technologies often exist side-by-side. In UK households turntables for vinyl records exist alongside streaming systems. Stuffed bookshelves exist alongside laptops, tablets and e-readers.

Yahoo! Internet Life magazine

Yahoo! Internet Life magazine is a microcosm of this layers of the future co-existence . Yahoo! is now a shadow of its former self, but its still valued for its financial news and email. The company was founded in 1994, just over 30 years ago. It was in the vanguard of consumer Internet services alongside the likes of Wired, Excite, Go, MSN, Lycos and Netscape’s Net Center.

Yahoo! Internet Life magazine was published in conjunction with Ziff Davis from 1996 to 2002. At the time when it was being published the web was as much a cultural force as it was a technology that people adopted. It was bigger than gaming or generative AI are now in terms of cultural impact. Yet there was no incongruity in being a print magazine about online media. Both existed side-by-side.

Post-print, Yahoo! Life is now an online magazine that is part of the Yahoo! web portal.

Technology is the journey, not the destination.

Technology and innovation often doesn’t meet the ideals set of it, for instance USB-C isn’t quite the universal data and power transfer panacea that consumers are led to believe. Cables and connectors that look the same have different capabilities. There is no peak reached, but layers of the future laid on each other and often operating in parallel. It’s a similar situation in home cinema systems using HDMI cables or different versions of Bluetooth connected devices.
November 13, 2024
Cocaine Cowboys + more things

Cocaine Cowboys

Cocaine Cowboys by Nicola Tallant tells the story of the Kinahan organisation. The Kinahan organisation is a group that wholesales and retails illegal drugs in association with other organised crime groups. Tellant explains how deprivation, geography and economic growth fuelled drug trafficking and abuse in Ireland. Isolated council estates and economic hardship drove a heroin epidemic. The subsequent Asian Tiger economy only uplifted young professionals who then were a ripe market for cocaine. Cocaine added to Ireland’s already difficult relationship with alcohol use and abuse.

Crime journalism such as this is popular in Ireland because it is so concentrated through blood and marriage ties. We don’t have the kind of diversity that the British criminal underworld has. This means that it’s much more ‘relevant’ to Irish society.

But the book title itself is very interesting. There is a clear parallel to the scale of the cross-border drug trade between the US and Mexico.

Irish country music star Daniel O’Donnell courtesy of TG4

But there is also an underlying western theme across Irish culture. The vast majority of us are at most a few generations from the farm. We have had hard times which is why country music appealed and even morphed into a localised genre Country and Irish popular in rural areas and amongst lorry drivers (or in American truck drivers that drive ‘semis’.)

Tallant’s stance is definitely anti-Kinahan; but the book title Cocaine Cowboys gives them the hero status and taps deeply into the mainline that the cowboy and related elements like country music have into Irish culture at home and abroad. Cocaine Cowboys might be the inspiration for the next generation to replace the Kinahans.

If you want to know more beyond the book Nicola Tallant and her colleagues at Irish tabloid the Sunday World host a podcast called Crime World.

Branding

Mozilla’s brand update gives its old T-Rex logo a fresh new look – The Verge

China

China threatens Calvin Klein owner with blacklist over Xinjiang cotton | FT

China’s first industrial leases are expiring. Will their holders renew? | South China Morning Post – it will be interesting to see what the Hong Kong tongs do

Consumer behaviour

Death of the corkscrew? Only 27% of young people in UK own one, report says | The Guardian – Prevalence of screw-top bottles and abstinence among young people blamed for falling popularity of gadget

Understanding Desire in the Age of Ozempic – The Atlantic – fascinating study in how GLP-1 treatments are not only reducing the desire for food, but also other products like alcohol and tobacco.

After peak woke, what next? The Economist – in the past decade, a form of wokeness has arisen on the illiberal left which is characterised by extreme pessimism about America and its capacity to make progress, especially on race. According to this view, all the country’s problems are systemic or structural, and the solutions to them are illiberal, including censorship and positive discrimination by race. This wokeness defines people as members of groups in a rigid hierarchy of victims and oppressors. Like the Puritans of old, adherents focus less on workable ideas for reducing discrimination than on publicly rooting out sinful attitudes in themselves and others (especially others). The Economist has analysed how influential these ideas are today by looking at public opinion, the media, publishing, higher education and the corporate world. Using a host of measures, we found that woke peaked in 2021-22 and has since receded. For example, polling by Gallup found that the share of people who worry a great deal about race relations climbed from 17% in 2014 to 48% in 2021, but has since fallen to 35%. Likewise, the term “white privilege” was used 2.5 times for every 1m words written by the New York Times in 2020. Last year it was used 0.4 times per 1m words. – Of course, woke’s failure could be viewed by proponents as a sign of deep-rooted systemic prejudice

Economics

Why Britain has stagnated? | Foundations – this reads true and hits hard. My parents came to the United Kingdom when the motorway network was being built, power stations were being constructed and the first generation of nuclear submarines were being constructed. In London the Victoria line was constructed. Now the UK struggles to build any infrastructure and its strategic industrial capabilities have been hollowed out or disappeared.

FMCG

Unilever moves on ‘sub-par’ marketing | WARC – That means consistent execution in marketing innovation, marketing quality, proposition sharpness, execution of pricing, execution of distribution. Fernandez suggested that, on a scale of 1-10, the business is currently at around six but needs to get to eight or nine (“ten doesn’t exist”). A&P spending is increasing as a proportion of revenue, from 13% in 2022, to 14.3% in 2023, and 15.1% in H1 2024. “There is an implicit recognition that our level of investment was not in line with our ambition of volume growth,” he said. That increased investment is not there to fund a growing volume of marketing content, he added. “I’m much more concerned about the quality of the stuff that we put in the market than the amount”. And that also means a focus on brand-building. “We see other people putting much more focus on promotional pricing,” he said, “but we always will prefer to invest in long-term, equity-building activities.” – CFO burns marketing teams ‘I believe our marketing was subpar”

Hong Kong

Dinner with strangers? Hongkongers craving real-world connections turn to ‘secret’ meet-ups | South China Morning Post – In a tapas restaurant in Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay, about 80 people are chatting away on the packed second floor, clinking glasses and sharing small plates while discussing issues ranging from mental health to childhood dreams.

Innovation

How a Chinese billionaire’s Silicon Valley splurge caught the eye of the FBI | FT

Kyoto company developing autofocus glasses for sufferers of presbyopia and other conditions | SoraNews24 -Japan News-

Luxury

Burberry shares tumble to 15-year low amid questions over its luxury brand status – Retail Gazette contrast with top-tier luxury brand trajectory: Hermès chief eyes haute couture push as Paris house rides out luxury gloom – but has to wonder about Hermès leaning even further into Chinese market.

Marketing

Is marketing entering its ‘era of less’? | WARC – based on Gartner CMO surveys marketers are increasingly being seen as cost centres and are being asked to do more with less which is affecting mar tech spend, staffing and agency spend.

Colgate-Palmolive: ‘The advertising is working’ | WARC

EZ Newswire Signs Exclusive Distribution Deal with Reuters | Reuters – sounds like a PR placement automation?

What’s fueling America’s Zyn obsession? | On Point

Innovative research that literally put people in the driver’s seat | WARC – More than half of strategists (59%) are integrating AI into their strategy development process in a cautiously progressive way. They need to identify the skills that AI can’t replace, such as getting buy-in for a strategy, and double down on them. Speedy access to research and insight (74%) and streamlining repetitive tasks (74%) are the top opportunities strategists see in leveraging AI in the strategy process.

Future of Strategy 2024: Synthetic data – speedy saviour or another example of the industry’s arrogance? | WARC – it’ll be useful when time is of the essence, and you want to ‘speak’ to people and get their thoughts on your hypotheses, ideas or campaigns. In that scenario, I can see how that approach may replace an ad-hoc focus group set up hastily in the agency’s boardroom. But we’re not here purely to understand people. If the role of communications is to move people emotionally, shouldn’t we also be here to feel people? As Richard Huntington, CSO of Saatchi & Saatchi says: “You can’t feel data.” The beauty of humans (and the beauty of ethnography) is that so often it’s not what we say that powers an ‘insight’ or a strategy, a campaign or some NPD… it’s what people don’t say. It’s the nods and winks, the gestures, the objects with meaning they have in their homes and in their lives. That texture isn’t picked up by a typical conversation – be that with synthetic data or in a focus group. These feelings that are elicited from ethnography are the special sauce that can separate the wheat from the chaff.

Break Through: How new and returning brands can grow with TV – System1 Group

The Rise of The Populist Brand – Eavesdrop

Online

The TikTok, Shein, and Temu Conundrum – by Ivy Yang – TikTok’s defence: Shein and Temu have worse privacy profiles than we do

Launch of Social Web Foundation | Social Web Foundation – set up by the great and the good of web 2.0, notably Tom Coates who brings a wealth of product expertise.

AI Training is Copyright Infringement | Initiative Urheberrecht and The Intelligence Age | Sam Altman

Security

The Netherlands will not back EU-wide screening of app messages – DutchNews.nl

The Pig Butchering Invasion Has Begun | WIRED

Technology

Qualcomm has approached Intel over buy-out | EE News Europe – antitrust related issues around the world

OpenAI Is A Bad Business | Ed Zitron – the economics of generative AI are still bad, despite improvements in hardware design.

How AlphaChip transformed computer chip design – Google DeepMind

Tools

How I Replaced Notion with Reminders, Numbers, and Notes | by Joan Westenberg – this is a prime example of what I have been hearing from other people. I have been using Notes app in particular from the get-go.

Home | LibreOffice – Free and private office suite – Based on OpenOffice – Compatible with Microsoft – I have 35 years of content saved, and LibreOffice can open them all. When you’ve been writing for years, your manuscript formats will often be obsolete (though I’ve tried to make decisions that make my poems available platform agnostic, such as using plaintext, but line breaks and stanza breaks don’t always translate well in markdown). LibreOffice is an incredible tool for opening 25 year old wordperfect files when I need them.

Web-of-no-web

Meta’s Orion smart glasses look like the future of AR – The Verge

Apple Knew Where the Puck Was Going, But Meta Skated There – the PAN or personal area network has been talked about for 20+ years. What this misses is that the Orion glasses were possible thanks to silicon carbide lens which are a non-trivial thing to manufacture at scale

October 15, 2024
Apple Watch Ultra 2
I was fortunate to get an Apple Watch Ultra 2. It is the third Apple Watch that I have owned and the sixth wearable. My previous history in wearables were:

A Yamasa Tokei analogue pedometer (I received it around the time I was in primary school. It came in handy for guesstimating walking distances when I was in the scouts). What I didn’t know at the time is that the 1960s-era interest in pedometers that eventually spawned my device was driven by Japanese interest in combating obesity due to modernisation during the post-war economic miracle.

If you are focusing on your 10,000 steps a day you can thank Dr Yoshiro Hatano and manufacturers like Yamasa who eventually sold their ‘Manpo-kei’ (10,000 step measure) in the west as ‘Manpo-meter’ devices from the 1960s through to the late 1990s.

Nike Fuelband – I really enjoyed the simplicity of this device, but it was very fragile and I ended up going through three devices in a matter of months.

Casio G-Shock+ connected device that was let down by its software, but very much a go-anywhere device.

Polar Loop fitness tracker – it was more reliable than Nike’s Fuelband but I didn’t really enjoy it as device.

Apple Watch series 1 and 2 – I lasted about 48 hours wearing the series 1 Apple Watch, but did better with a series 2 device.

Apple Watch Ultra 2

My expectations have been impacted by poor experiences with earlier devices.

How have I found the Apple Watch Ultra 2?

I have worn tool watches all my adult life, a mix of mechanical dive watches and Casio G-Shocks. That meant that I didn’t think about where I took my watches. Into the shower, or the swimming pool – the watches could take it all in their stride. But the Apple Watch couldn’t.

The Apple Watch Ultra 2 is a classic ‘go anywhere’ watch. It is waterproof like a Casio G-Shock. So fine for swimming, in the shower or scuba diving. Titanium means that it’s hypoallergenic, and corrosion resistant; even more so than most grades of stainless steel. However, if you wear it in the sea or at the swimming pool, rinse the watch in clean fresh water afterwards, like you should do with any other dive watch.

I found the default straps sold with the Apple Watch Ultra 2 were excessively clunky. Awkward to wear and got snagged in random situations. Instead I favoured a Nike Sports silicone band which is ideal for the gym or working in the office.

I bought a cheap clear bumper for the Apple Watch Ultra 2. It keeps fingerprints off the screen and gives items like the buttons and digital crown a modicum of protection from being activated by putting on a jacket as we go into a cooler wetter autumn.

Battery life on it seems to be more generous than the older Apple Watch models I have used and based on what I have seen I think you could get a weekend out of it without a charge.

The ubiquity of Apple watches on the wrists of Londoners mean that this doesn’t attract any good or bad attention.

What’s it like?

Compared to previous Apple watch models I have used the Apple Watch Ultra 2 is faster and more sophisticated. I get the sense that the Apple WatchOS is now supported by less non-health related apps than previously. My watch supports alerts for my train ticket bookings, airline flights and my preferred taxi app.

Part of this might be down to watch might make contextual sense in the 10 second app usage time that a consumer would have. And when does it make sense to just pull the phone out of your pocket.

There isn’t the same lag that made the first series Apple Watch unusable, as the device has become more powerful and more processing happens on the watch. Apple’s health app is more tracking than I need, so I haven’t used it with apps like Strava.

What’s good about it?

All of the Apple watch models have been impressive pieces of engineering and the Apple Watch Ultra 2 is no exception. In their own way, they challenge Swiss industry for a different type of engineering prowess.

I really like the strap that I landed on. The material is the right texture and unlike other straps I have worn it doesn’t hinder my typing on a laptop. That being said the strap owes a lot to Marc Newson’s prior work in the early 1990s for Ikepod. This all means that you have a device that feels nice on the wrist.

One of the first things that I liked about the Apple Watch Ultra 2 is ‘night mode’ a plain red on black face, rather than the distracting colour complications. It would be great if this could be a universal theme carried through all the watch faces.

Thanks to mobile phone contracts, Apple watches like G-Shocks are surprisingly poor signals of status. In a city like London, that has its benefits.

What could be improved?

The Apple Watch is over nine years old. A number of problems have been there since the first device launch and the Apple Watch Ultra 2 is merely the latest in the line to carry them.

You can’t wear your watch on the inside of your wrist. I used to scuba dive without a dive computer, relying on pre-planned dive tables, a depth gauge and air pressure gauge for my tank. I got into the habit of wearing my watch on the inside of my right wrist so I could hold my gauge console in my hand and see my elapsed dive time at the same time. It also means that your watch is less on-show in public settings.

Screens default to being overly busy with Apple trying to cram in as many complications as possible which compromises ‘glanceability’ – the key experience benefit that wearables like the Apple Watch Ultra 2 provide. Apple should also start to think about accessibility on across the Apple Watch range as much as it does on a Mac. I have have worked bleary eyed from deep sleep, looked at the watch and not being able to read it until my focus kicks in. How could the haptics function in the Apple Watch be used better?

Less apps now support the Apple Watch than have done previously. The more apps that support a platform, the more likely you are to get at least some sticky experiences that add to the utility of the device.

It’s not a particularly stylish device to look at, but it also doesn’t lean into function in the same way that a Casio G-Shock does. This means that it could be better protected out of the box than it is.

The battery life is better than previous generations of Apple Watch, but it still creates battery anxiety. Unlike Casio or other manufacturers, there’s no solar top-up option.

I don’t know how precise the data is. It measures blood oxygen level but freely admits its data isn’t good enough to be used in a medical situation. If you move to an Apple device from a Garmin or similar, you may find that your step count and activity measures may vary.

Price-wise, it’s expensive. It does offer value for what it does, but it’s expensive. You can spend as much, if not more money on a G-Shock than an Apple Watch Ultra 2; but the G-Shock won’t be a worry on issues like obsolescence, software support or even battery replacement in the same way that the Apple Watch Ultra 2 is. I have G-Shocks that I have owned for almost 20 years and are perfectly fine. I won’t be able to say the same of any Apple Watch.

What’s its use?

Still a great question. When I had my first Apple Watch, I stopped using it after 48 hours for a few reasons:
- I couldn’t see a good user case coming thorough in the product at the time
- It was slow
- It had poor battery life
At the time Apple had thrown a number of things at the wall. There was a luxury line with a $17,000 version with a gold case and official third-party leather straps by Hermès. Apple still sells a Hermès co-branded range, but the gold models are no longer made.

In the intervening years Apple has committed to a number of areas:
- An extension of your phone, on your wrist.
- Integration with payments
- Integration with identity
- The quantified self
The use cases I have personally favoured included being an extension of my phone, when it rings my watch vibrates. But since I work most of the time at home and the phone sits on a stand in front of me, this tends to be only useful when I am out. Glanceable updates from a few apps, notably weather and my taxi app.

The Apple Watch Ultra 2 can work as a standalone phone attached to your existing number, but that depends on your mobile carrier supporting it. I didn’t opt for this for reasons relating to my current service plan with 3 UK.

Tracking activity and the quality of my sleep. The quantified self is the area where Apple really pushes now, as do third-party developers such as Strava.

Apple also allows integration with Apple wallet, but you have to turn your wrist in an awkward position to work with most ‘tap-and-go’ systems. It is just as easy to do it with your phone or card.

Finally, Apple and some car manufacturers have been looking at using Apple devices as your car key. I live in London and even if I did need a car, I would be going for a pre-owned vehicle.

Is it a watch?

Is the Apple Watch Ultra 2 actually a watch at first glance seems like a ridiculous proposition, if for no other reason than you have the word ‘watch’ twice in close succession.

But on closer examination, it’s a pertinent question. Watch sales actually dropped as cellphones became ubiquitous. You had the time in your pocket or purse and the phone went everywhere with you. If you went abroad on holiday, it even changed time zones unless you specifically set it not to do so.

Watches offered some benefits from using the cellphone as a portable clock.
- Easy to read / glanceable.
- An analogue face allowed you to visually understand elapsed time.
- It sent social signals in work about taking time seriously and likely punctuality.
- More broadly the watch demonstrates signals about style, wealth, taste and even sub-cultures. This can be especially true of luxury brands and the countless collaborations that Casio has done with its G-Shock range over the years.
- Finally, if you have an automatic movement watch or a solar powered quartz one, you don’t need to worry about a dead cellphone battery.
Smartwatches in general, have put a simplified version of your smartphone on your wrist. Depending who your mobile service provider is, your Apple Watch Ultra 2 can become a fallback phone, allowing you to leave it charging at home.

But as a watch it’s trying to do too many other things. Update you on your messages, provide a simplified experience of some apps (airlines and taxi services in particular) and activity tracking. All of which is squeezed into a screen area about an eighth the size of my smartphone’s screen.

This all comes with experience choices and compromises. It’s this lack of functional purity that is a moat between even the most technical G-Shock and an Apple Watch Ultra 2. Your watch will never compromise on telling you the time despite being a really shitty dive recorder or digital compass.

Yes you can spend the price of a Porsche; on a Patek Philippe watch with lots of complications, but realistically it’s an objet d’art that happens to look like a wrist watch. On that measure the Apple Watch Ultra 2 isn’t a watch, despite sitting on your wrist.

More information

On smart watches, I’ve decided to take the plunge | renaissance chambara

Wearable devices | renaissance chambara

Living with the Apple Watch | renaissance chambara
October 9, 2024
Mooncakes + more things
Mooncakes

Mooncakes were a big part of my time in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. This year, mid-September marked mid-autumn festival across Asia or known as Chuseok in Korea. It is similar to harvest festivals that happen elsewhere in the world.

It is celebrated in Chinese communities with mooncakes. Mooncakes traditionally have been made of fat filled pastry cases and lids filled with red bean or lotus seed paste and a salted dried egg yolk.

Mooncakes are moulded and have auspicious messages or symbols embossed on the top, like the double happiness ideogram which also appears on new year decorations and at weddings.

In the past mooncakes have been used to make political statements in Hong Kong where they were embossed with messages against the Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Bill 2019. This mirrored mooncake history, where concealed messages were alleged to have been used to ferment rebellion against Mongolian rule in China centuries ago.

China saw a halving of mooncakes sold this year, compared to last year. This is a mix of fast-moving events like the state of consumer spending and longer term factors including gifting culture and attitudes to health and fitness.

The economy

The consumer economy seems to be doing worse than industrial output. Youth unemployment is still an issue.

Gifting culture

China saw a crackdown on premium priced mooncakes as part of a government move against ‘excessive consumption‘ driven by societal excess and ‘money worship’. This overall movement has dampened luxury sales. The Chinese government stopped officials buying mooncakes a decade ago as part of a crackdown on corruption.

Some consumers just aren’t into them

They were as divisive as Christmas cake is in Irish and British households. Brands like Haagen-Daz and Starbucks have looked to reinvent mooncakes into something more palatable.

Health and fitness

Health and fitness has been steadily growing as a trend in China. A number of reasons have been at play including changing beauty standards. Chinese women are still going to favour slimness over muscle, but home workouts and running have been increasing in popularity. The fitness industry has been growing and the Chinese government has also tried to foster interest in winter sports. So there would be a good reason to avoid ruining all the hard work that you put in by eating mooncakes.

Business

Nike CEO John Donahoe to Step Down | BoF

Economics

Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* by Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian and Christina Patterson – workers must take costly actions (“conflict”) to have nominal wages catch up with inflation, meaning there are welfare costs even if real wages do not fall as inflation rises. We study a menu-cost style model, where workers choose whether to engage in conflict with employers to secure a wage increase. We show that, following a rise in inflation, wage catchup resulting from more frequent conflict does not raise welfare. Instead, the impact of inflation on worker welfare is determined by what we term “wage erosion”—how inflation would lower real wages if workers’ conflict decisions did not respond to inflation. As a result, measuring welfare using observed wage growth understates the costs of inflation. We conduct a survey showing that workers are willing to sacrifice 1.75% of their wages to avoid conflict. Calibrating the model to the survey data, the aggregate costs of inflation incorporating conflict more than double the costs of inflation via falling real wages alone

FMCG

Unilever ends up as a punching bag for Greenpeace and having their purpose blown up. As a campaign idea, the public celebration by the Dove brand team of the 20th anniversary of Dove’s real beauty positioning and creative left themselves open to this. Greenpeace used a skilful reframing in this creative.

The reason why the developing world seems to be disproportionately affected by plastic waste highlighted is for a number of reasons:
- A lot of and paper and plastic recycling is shipped abroad. It used to go to China, but they declined to accept waste to recycle from 2018 onwards. So this waste went to other markets.
- Developing markets have single portion packaging so that FMCG companies can distribute via neighbourhood shops and sell the product for the price a consumer can afford.
- Plastic is easier to colour, manufacture, package and transport than glass, metal or coated paper. Biodegradable or effective post-use supply chains are well behind where they should be. And even if you were open to recycling, there may be brand issues.
Innovation

Chinese scientists claim they can use Starlink satellites to detect stealth aircraft | BGR

Japan

AI will help Sony expand Japanese anime’s growing fan base | FT – but would also help competitors out-produce Sony. Expect a Chinese anime avalanche.

Marketing

Campbell’s drops the ‘soup’: what the evidence says about adapting brand fundamentals | WARC

Media

OpenAI Messed With the Wrong Mega-Popular Parenting Forum | WIRED

Retail media frenzy muddies negotiations with brands, who agency execs say must spend or ‘suffer the consequences’ – Digiday and Retail media networks put the squeeze on brands | WARC – Spending on RMNs could be seen as part of normal partnership agreements between brands and retailers that have traditionally included marketing commitments. That shades into a grey area if retailers become focused primarily on growing their ad business, but those same retailers can’t expect brands to spend more unless they can demonstrate results. At the same time, brands have their wider media mix to consider.

In context
- The pairing of advertisers with consumers close to the point of purchase via rich, first-party data is leading to better ROI relative to other channels for some advertisers and is cited as a key driver of increasing retail media investment.
- Retail media is growing in double digits every year; it currently accounts for around 14% of global ad spend and is projected to account for 22.7% of online advertising by 2026.
- Retail media is no longer a ‘medium’ in the conventional sense but is instead evolving into an infrastructure underpinning the entire digital advertising ecosystem.
Content Creators in the Adult Industry Want a Say in AI Rules | WIRED

Security

JLR’s letter: what Land Rover’s doing to stop your older car getting nicked | CAR Magazine – update on JLR’s security crisis

Software

A brief history of QuickTime – The Eclectic Light Company

Technology

NTT Data builds a mainframe cloud for Banks • The Register – mainframes are still amazing for large scale batch processing
September 25, 2024