Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • The future of television

    I was watching a roundtable on The Future of Television hosted by the Aspen Institute in the US, whilst much of it was of limited interest; some of the conversations percolated with other things that have sat around in my head for a while:

    So here are the thoughts that I was kicking around in terms of outtakes from The Future of Television discussion 

    • The internet looks less like an atomic bomb and more like a transport medium to the content industry.
    • Business models not channels are disrupting media and interruption marketing as a business model is threatened. Instead a subscription style model a la HBO is more likely to be The Future of Television. The key difference is that the bundling of cable TV stations is giving way to an a la carte style option instead
    • Attention poverty is an issue: better not more. While there has been an interesting focus in new forms of content, the need for telling great stories is timeless. More importantly, interactively isn’t everything, lean back content still has a place. Technologist have thought that media consumption would evolve to an exclusively lean forward world.
    • Social is only appropriate in certain contexts
    • Gamification is a phrase to get marketers and designers to think again about incentivisation. Again this depends on how interested people are in lean forward content and what the benefits are in the gamefication mechanisms – usually this is some form of dopamine hit a la the Tinder interface
    Gamification trends
    • Games are considerably stratified from social games (the equivalent of a crossword) to role playing PC games (think Games Workshop addicts)
    • Immersive gaming isn’t for everyone
    • Immersive experiences aren’t ready for prime-time

    More information
    This isn’t the vivid cyberspace that I signed up for…
    Eight trends for the future

  • Chinese consumer + more news

    Chinese consumer

    Catering to the self-expressive Chinese consumer – less focus on the corporate brand, more on the product level brand for the self-expressive Chinese consumer. More related content on consumer behaviour

    Beauty

    Beiersdorf Could Complement P&G – Euromonitor International – if it did happen let’s hope it would be better than what has happened to Braun

    Consumer behaviour

    Global Social Unrest – Euromonitor International – youth unemployment, perceived income inequality and feelings of being outside society. Rather sounds like the Scarman Report from the early 1980s after the Brixton Riots

    China Fuels Solitary Cigarettes Growth Region’ – Analyst Insight from Euromonitor International

    Germany in 2030: Population to Fall to Pre-1990 Levels – Analyst Insight from Euromonitor International

    Innovation

    3D-Printed Batteries Could Be the Solution to Our Lithium Woes | Motherboard

    How to Squeeze 1,000 Terabytes of Data onto a Single DVD | SiliconANGLE

    Luxury

    The Evolving Luxury Landscape in Asia – Euromonitor International

    Media

    Measuring the iTunes video store | asymco

    Reuters Institute survey reveals growing global popularity of live blogs | PressGazette

    For HBO and Apple, a long process to partner on TV | The Verge

    Online

    Social media analytics in action | guardian.co.uk

    Marissa Mayer Has Quietly Cut 1,000 Jobs At Yahoo – Business Insider – quarterly appraisals. I hope that the planning cycle has moved beyond the 6 weeks of planning and run hell for leather to execute that used to happen each quarter

    Security

    Schneier on Security: US Offensive Cyberwar Policy – interesting comparison with the cold war nuclear stand-off

    The creepier web tracking technology that will replace cookies – The Globe and Mail – profiling systems

    Deep Packet Inspection: Market Analysis & Forecasts | ARCchart

    Software

    WeChat Gets In-App Purchases; Pics Slick But Will Users Like It?

    WhatsApp Surpasses 250 Million Active Users – Digits – WSJ

    Line Opens Sponsored Channels for Third-Party Apps – consumers rewarded for interacting with brand content in LINE

    I, Cringely IBM to customers: Your hand is staining my window – this all feels likes the early 1990s again when IBM changed its business model around mainframes to book more profit in the short term and were caught by the short and curlies and ended the career of John Akers

    Web of no web

    TelecomTV | DT launches its M2M development kit/community/platform

    Wireless

    Wi-Fi Alliance kicks off 11ac certification – Rethink Wireless – interesting given that there are already 802.11ac products on sale

    Microsoft Explored Deal for Nokia – WSJ.com – it wouldn’t make sense on balance. Microsoft has what it needs from Nokia already, though Naviteq maybe an interesting buy. More content on Naviteq

  • Hard innovation + more things

    Hard innovation

    Fred Wilson: Venture capital as we know it will cease to exist | PandoDaily – not as many at least. I can’t see hard innovation being financed by Kickstarter, but then venture capital aren’t financing much hard innovation either.

    Economics

    UK inflation: five graphs that show why prices are rising – Telegraph – quite a BusinessInsider-esque article. In short wages outpaced by Consumer Price Index, rising food price inflation, rising clothing costs attributed to the cold May, jump in energy prices with the exception of the filling station which was moderated by vehicle fuel duty freeze

    RIP, American Dream? Why It’s So Hard for the Poor to Get Ahead Today – Matthew O’Brien – The Atlantic – the US now has a class system

    Finance

    Taxpayers are looking increasingly exposed on the back of Co-op downgrade | Left Foot Forward

    Luxury

    Room service no more: why luxury is leaving the middle class behind | guardian.co.uk – hollowing out of the middle classes probably at play. More related content here

    Media

    mobygratis – great for not-for-profit and independent film makers and some interesting benefits for Moby in terms of distribution and incremental YouTube ad revenue / iTunes click to buy options

    Marketing

    GroupM Next study illuminates evolving role of digital – WPP

    Adobe Looks At Enhanced Campaigns’ Impact On CPCs, Tweaks Media Optimizer Algorithm | WebProNews

    Social media measurement, after Madrid – Philip Sheldrake

    Security

    Future Perspective – Privacy, from data to people

    Technology

    Chrome Web Store – Awesome Screenshot: Capture & Annotate – Google Chrome only

    Huawei talks up Nokia deal in smartphone market consolidation – FT.comMr Yu predicted that the smartphone market would consolidate to about three or four companies – and warned that Microsoft’s Windows phone platform used by Nokia as well as Huawei was “weak” (paywall) – I guess that’s one of the reasons why Microsoft is reputedly paying developers $100,000 to port their application to Windows Phone 8

  • The PRISM post

    It took a bit longer to develop this post than normal, I had a number of data points and ideas kicking around my head regarding PRISM when the news came out. I don’t have a definite conclusion from them and they seem to raise as many questions as answers about our wider relationship with technology.

    PRISM Mechanics

    PRISM pulls in meta-data from across the major internet services en-masse. There is speculation about whether this is targeted searches or an overall trawl and whether the data comes directly from the internet companies servers.

    According to PowerPoint slides obtained by The Guardian; the NSA takes data from optical fibres and directly from the servers of US internet services: Microsoft, Yahoo!, Google, Paltalk (a video chatting service that I hadn’t heard of), AOL, Skype, YouTube and Apple. PRISM is pulling meta-data from the internet services.

    What is meta-data?
    The glib answer would be data about data. Examples of meta data that you would come across include the document properties section of a Microsoft Word document. Or ripping a CD into iTunes. This sends information on the length of each CD track and the number of tracks on the CD over the internet to a database service (Sony’s Gracenote (formerly CDDB), Discogs, AMG LASSO, MusicBrainz or freedb) and then come back with what it thinks is the CD and suggested track names and artists.

    In the non-digital world; the games people watching and  animal, mineral or vegetable is a good analogy of using meta data for investigative powers. The old adage about 70 per cent of communication being non-verbal implies the value of meta-data. Real-world meta data includes things like body language, the way we dress, personal space distances (cross-referenced with cultural norms), who we are seen in the company of etc.

    In the intelligence world it could learn about:

    • Who is connected to who
    • How often do they communicate
    • Variations on the patterns (this is what they mean by chatter on terrorist networks increasing or decreasing on 24)

    PRISM and Twitter
    It was interesting that Twitter was noticeable by its absence from the PRISM stories. Some have speculated that it maybe because of the combative nature that Twitter has taken to protecting users information.

    It could also be that the kind of activities intelligence operators would be interested in likely require long form communications.

    A third option is that most of the valuable data one would need from Twitter is already publicly available via social media monitoring tools using their API:

    • Who follows whom – there needs to be a relationship there for direct messages
    • Public @ messages
    • Twitter lists (you can follow account content this way without following the account in question)

    In fact, about the only thing missing would be direct messages, however those can only occur between people whom you know that the person is already connected to and you could watch them come through via their email account.

    Technological flow

    One of the most interesting books about technology that I have read over the past few years is What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly. When doing the promotion for the book, Kevin was asked by BoingBoing to define his concept of ‘The Technium’

    We all realize that we’re kind of surrounded with technology: there’s little device here recording us, there’s tables, chairs, spoons, light bulbs. Each of these things seem pretty mechanical, pretty inert in a certain sense, not very interactive, you know, a hammer, roads. But each one of these technologies actually requires many other technologies to make and produce. So your little thing in your pocket that you use for a phone might require thousands of other technologies to create it and support it and keep it going, and each of those technologies may require hundreds of thousands of subtechnologies below it. And that network of different technologies and the co-dependency that each of those technologies have on each other forms a virtual organism, a super organism.

    We can keep stepping back and realize that all these technologies are in some ways co-dependent and related and connected to each other in some way and that largest of all the networks of all these technologies together I call the Technium. What it suggests is that technologies like the spoon or light bulb are not standalone independent technologies but are part of the ecosystem of this superorganism and that superorganism, like any kind of network, exhibits behaviors that the individual technologies themselves don’t.

    As a whole the Technium has lifelike properties that the individual technologies do not. So your iPhone is not lifelike and the light bulb is not lifelike but the Technium itself is.

    In some respects, the information access provided by PRISM and the ability to process it is an inevitable part of technology’s march. The latest edition of Wired magazine talks about the Internet of things as a programmable world where use of predictions based on past behaviour would allow services be provided to consumers as they need them:

    • Their air con being turned on at home as they leave the office
    • Their sandwich order started as they come closer to their lunch time spot or coffee shop

    This data would lend itself to physical surveillance as well as communications surveillance, in the same way that satellites and CCTV systems are used in the films Eagle Eye and Enemy of The State.

    And I haven’t even mentioned the kind of data that could be pulled from the health 2.0 systems from the snake-oil of Nike Fuel to medical grade devices.

    Instead of the man on the grassy knoll packing a hunting rifle and scope in the future it could be a Pringle’s can with a wi-fi aerial inside and a scope attached that would be used to send a localised extended range signal to hack the undesirable politician’s insulin dosemeter, pace-maker, hearing aid or TENS unit to facilitate an accidental death.

    All of this makes life a lot easier for employees at intelligence companies, reducing manual labour and expense spent in surveillance; which could then be used to focus on high value targets. The same kind of forces that reshape industries also change government functions including intelligence.

    There would be less people required to sit in a van or walk around town following a subject. Less people required to do Watergate-style break-ins or sit hunched over reel-to-reel tape-recorders.

    If one thinks about these things in terms of the inevitable progress of technology PRISM had to happen; what we feel about it is irrelevant to that process.

    Thinking about The Technium as a concept it is probably no coincidence that quantum computing and cryptography has drawn new interest as states and commercial institutions look provide protection and access to future information networks.

    Ethics

    One of the things that hasn’t been sufficient reflected on yet, due the moral outrage at government surveillance and treason is the wide range of surveillance that people have already willingly submitted themselves to.

    From Bloomberg’s journalists looking at the behaviour of terminal subscribers to behavioural advertising that follows you online and your credit score, commercial businesses have got data acquisition to such an art-form that US department store Target may realise you are pregnant before anyone else.

    As a society we sell our privacy cheaply to allow Facebook to advertise to us, or having a black box tracking our every movement in our car to get cheaper insurance. Our credit card companies analyse a detailed record of our purchase behaviour to try and limit credit card fraud.

    Why is this ok, but government surveillance beyond the pale? Is there something wrong with the ethical calculus at work, or have we sleepwalked into a world we are no longer comfortable in and PRISM has made more people aware of this?

    Shock (the lack of)

    PRISM isn’t a new idea:

    In the 1990s, the UK government is alleged to have used a listening tower at Capenhurst in Cheshire that tapped all the international phone traffic that came from Ireland. Ireland was linked to international networks via a fibre-optic cable called UK-Ireland 1 which came ashore at Holyhead and then transmitted across country via microwave towers. Capenhurst allegedly fell out of use when the design of the Irish telephone network changed. Presumably the equivalent task is completed in a different manner.

    This kind of behaviour sets a precedent.

    In 2000, the European Commission filed a final report on ECHELON claimed that:

    • The US-led electronic intelligence-gathering network existed
    • It was used to provide US companies with a competitive advantage vis-à-vis their European peers; rather like US defence contractors have alleged to undergone by Chinese hackers

    So it is not unreasonable to suspect that the US government would have a 21st century equivalent of ECHELON in place.

    Swiss encryption product company Crypto AG has been accused of rigging its products in order to provide the NSA access to its clients messages. Crypto AG has repeatedly denied these claims.

    The European Union has legislation in place that obliges telecoms companies to keep historic usage data archived for future use by law enforcement agencies.

    Business implications

    For a number of years the US PATRIOT Act has been used by non-US cloud providers as a way of separating US technology companies from their customers. For instance BAe declined to use Microsoft’s Office 365 as they were concerned that their data would be turned over to US-based rivals.

    It was also probably no coincident that foreign government interest in Linux and open source software has increased since the European Commission ECHELON final report back in 2000.

    PRISM is likely to be a timely reminder to foreign companies and other organisations (like research universities) that they are likely to be under sustained attack for US commercial advantage.

    Consumers generally are less concerned about their privacy, so there is likely to be less of an impact to the consumer internet services thought to be involved. However that doesn’t mean that the European Union countries in particular won’t take action against Google and Facebook in particular. Privacy is an emotive political issue, particularly in the former Warsaw Pact countries who used to have an extensive surveillance infrastructure to keep their populace in check.

    Facebook and Google have both had privacy-related legal issues in the past and PRISM gives regulators another reason to go back and look at them.

    UPDATE: Thanks to Hasan Diwan for pointing out that Sweden has banned the use of Google Apps in public institutions due to privacy concerns.

    Foreign policy

    The more paranoid members of the US government may wonder if the disclosure of PRISM and Boundless Informant are timed to coincide with US-China government talks. It certainly looks as if it takes the wind out of US foreign policy around allegations of cyber-war. Both Mr Xi and Mr Obama agreed to disagree about cyber-security in their summit.

    Fuel may be added to the fire amongst conspiracy theorists when the source of the PRISM news coverage Edward Snowden surfaced in Hong Kong.

    It is also interesting that at the time of writing, the Chinese state media haven’t made more of the debacle.

    There are wider implications for US foreign policy; PRISM applies a greater focus (if you will excuse the pun) on exceptionalism in US foreign policy. From US legal system giving itself extra-territorial powers in the case of Megaupload to the PATRIOT Act. This is more likely to be challenged as the US wanes in it’s position as a global super-power.

    PRISM, as it is perceived, damages US arguments around freedom-of-speech. State surveillance is considered to have a chilling effect in civilian discussions and has been criticized in the past, yet PRISM could be considered to do the exactly same thing as the Americans oppose in countries like Iran.

    I don’t think that President Obama will be diminished by the episode.  Liberal leaders such as Bill Clinton and Tony Blair proved to be as war-like, if not more so than their conservative counterparts. More related content from this site here

    More information

    By the numbers: The NSA’s super-secret spy program, PRISM | FP Passport
    European Commission Final Report on Echelon  and coverage that appeared at the time of the report’s release: EU releases Echelon spying report • The Register
    Patriot Act und Cloud Computing | iX – German technology press on the risks posed by the Patriot Act
    Defense giant ditches Microsoft’s cloud citing Patriot Act fears | ZDNet – BAe worried about US intelligence community handing over their information to US-based technology rivals
    US surveillance revelations deepen European fears | Reuters – great if you are European seller of quantum computing cryptography equipment, not so great if you are a US SaaS vendor
    Microsoft, the USA PATRIOT Act, and European cloud computing | Paul Miller – The Cloud of Data
    NSA Global Data Gathering (Old News) – watch a quantum computing-based cryptographic war break out

    What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly
    Such a Long Journey – An Interview with Kevin Kelly – Boing Boing – on the Technium or the inevitable progress of technology
    In the Programmable World, All Our Objects Will Act as One | Wired.com – why worry about the government spying on you when your coffee shop will at it as well?
    NSA’s Prism surveillance program: how it works and what it can do | guardian.co.uk
    PRISM, The Tech Companies & Monitoring Versus Requests
    The strange similarities in Google, Facebook, and Apple’s PRISM denials | VentureBeat
    Tech Giants Built Segregated Systems For NSA Instead Of Firehoses To Protect Innocent Users From PRISM | TechCrunch
    Obama is the big loser in NSA fallout | Irish Examiner
    EU DGs – Home Affairs – Data retention – historic telecoms reports
    Peng Liyuan’s iPhone could be security risk for China|WantChinaTimes.com – guessing that this hasn’t had more publicity due to imminent meeting of China and US governments. Not too much of loss of face etc

  • Google Glass

    The inspiration for this post on Google Glass came from a conversation that I had with Ian Wood around this time last year and a twitter exchange that I had earlier this week with Excapite. We started off talking about what Tumblr meant to Yahoo! and what it meant in the broader scheme of things in the digital eco-system  and the primacy of mobile device experience in the world now.

    Nigel suggested that the future is likely to look like Google Glass, but that the current device is too early rather like the Apple Newton PDA. Part of the problem is a social one, the device usage is too conscious, so you have the ‘Glasshole’ phenomena as demonstrated by the white men wearing Google Glass tumblr account.

    I suspect that the problem with Google Glass is partly one of execution rather like the HP-150 personal computer of the early 1980s. Why the comparison with a thirty-year old computer design?

    Let me quote from chapter nine of Accidental Empires by Robert X. Cringely

    The other problem with the HP-150 was what was supposed to have been its major selling point—the touchscreen, which was a clever idea nobody really wanted. Not only was it hard to get software companies to make their products work with HP’s touchscreen technology, users didn’t like it. Secretaries, who apparently measure their self-worth by typing speed, didn’t want to take their fingers off the keys. Even middle managers, who were the intended users of the system, didn’t like the touch screen. The technology was clever, but it should have been a tip-off that HP’s own engineers chose not to use the systems. You could walk through the cavernlike open offices at HP headquarters in those days without seeing a single user pointing at his or her touchscreen.

    Funnily enough touch screens were tried again and again. They only seemed to sell in reasonable quantities when they were on devices that:

    • Didn’t have a keyboard (as standard) (PalmPilot, iPhone, iPad)
    • Didn’t try to do the kind of tasks that one would need a keyboard for. When one thinks about the the PalmPilot, the iPad and even the iPhone they are primarly information consumption devices

    I think that the glance up display Google Glass has a level of social and user awkwardness similar to the touch display. Google are on to something, the use of sneaky applications that would provide the right information at the right time. But the very act of using the device is a big tell that is both distracting and takes away the social impact of the information provided.

    If we think about the way similar displays are used in fiction:

    • The Terminator – it isn’t obvious that the data is being used as it is ‘in retina’ but cyborgs are really anti-social. In the first Terminator film, the posters showed the cyborg status information projected on to the inside of the Gargoyle ANSI Classics sported by Arnold Schwartzenegger
    • Jacking in to the ‘net in William Gibson’s sprawl series of novels have goggles and similar visual tools that augment the characters bodies; both of which detach the character socially as they go online or put them outside of the social norm with their artificial nature in the case of body augmentation

    In real-life Zeiss and Sony’s personal cinema video goggle sets detach the user from their surroundings physically by concealing the eyes and psychologically by providing an immersive audio visual experience. So visual overlay may not be the best way of going about things.

    When one thinks about the UN general assembly or news broadcasters, the participants get their cues via a discrete ear phone or assistant whispering within earshot. Sound may be a better way of providing sneak application information. However despite services like Siri the technology for audio input and output may not be there. At least in small discrete package with a reasonable battery life. More related content can be found here.

    More information
    Things are looking up for Google Glass | I, Cringely