Category: software | 軟件 | 소프트웨어 | ソフトウェア

Soon after I started writing this blog, web services came up as a serious challenger to software. The thing that swung the tide in software’s favour was the rise of the mobile app ecosystems.

Originally mobile apps solved a gnarly problem for smartphone companies. Web services took time to download and were awkward compared to native software.

Now we tend to have a hybrid model where the web holds authentication functionality and the underlying database for many applications to work. If you pick up a Nokia N900 today, while you can appreciate its beautiful design, the device is little more than a glowing brick. Such is the current symbiosis between between software apps and the web services that support them.

That symbiosis is very important, while on the one hand it makes my Yahoo! Finance and Accuweather apps very useful, it also presents security risks. Some of the trouble that dating app Grindr had with regards security was down to the programmers building on third party APIs and not understanding every part of the functionality.

This means that sometimes things that I have categorised as online services might fall into software and vice versa. In that respect what I put in this category takes on a largely arbitrary view of what is software.

The second thing about software is the individual choices as a decision making user, say a lot about us. I love to use Newsblur as an RSS reader as it fits my personal workflow. I know a lot of other people who prefer other readers that do largely the same job in a different way.

  • The British discount + more things

    The British discount

    A number of things have happened that made me think about the idea of the British discount. A fund manager came out and said that UK equities were cheap compared to their counterparts listed on other stock markets and would likely remain so for a long time.

    Sale
    Genuine sale bargains?

    There are a number of reasons why these companies may trade at a British discount:

    • The London Stock Exchanges doesn’t have a reputation for high growth businesses in the same way that the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ does. Instead it has a preponderance of mining companies and similar firms
    • UK pension funds are discouraged from purchasing stocks
    • The UK doesn’t foster the kind of businesses that growth investors would want to invest in
    • British banks don’t particularly want to invest in British businesses beyond property portfolios
    • Management demonstrate short-termism in their investment approach, as does the banking system
    • There isn’t a culture of retail share ownership
    • The UK economy has numerous structural challenges, some of them self inflicted

    The British discount goes beyond the stock market, but instead the very nature of the UK itself.

    Indebted government

    Government debt is ballooning and will continue to do so, yet productivity is stubbornly low meaning the bonds will be ever harder to pay off. Finally as the Liz Truss debacle showed even leadership shows the British discount.

    The state Britain has been in

    The ideas and concepts the British discount aren’t even new – most of them came from ideas in Will Hutton’s The State We’re In originally published in 1995.

    The fund manager can be confident in the British discount to be long-lasting as he knows that neither the Labour Party or their Conservative Party counterparts had managed to address existing structural economic issues. Instead they managed to create new ones.

    The British discount related content

    The State We’re In by Will Hutton

    China

    The Trajectory of China’s Industrial Policies – IGCC – Barry Naughton, Siwen Xiao, and Yaosheng Xu argue that most of the changes in Chinese industrial policy since the mid-2000s can be thought of as being part of a trajectory that seeks to build a policy/planning mechanism, and that shifts the ultimate objective of technology and industry policies from economics to security.

    Consumer behaviour

    Why Singaporean democracy is like a social media graph – Marginal REVOLUTION

    Why the Toronto Zoo wants you to stop showing gorillas your phone | The Star 

    Aini on ‘stans’

    Economics

    Exclusive: China invites global investors for rare meeting as economy sputters | Reuters – keep Foreign investment coming which seems to be a desperate measure

    FMCG

    The WHO’s aspartame advice changes nothing for Coke, Pepsi | Quartz 

    Saudi Arabia’s Barn’s Coffee plans 25 outlets in MalaysiaMalaysia’s Premier Fine Foods plans to establish 25 outlets in Kuala Lumpur as its hub and expand operations to other Southeast Asian countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, in its aim to have 300 outlets in the next 10 years – interesting franchise coming out of Saudi Arabia

    Germany

    Germany’s first China strategy warns on asymmetric dependencies | Quartz – German large business is scuppering the German government at every turn – Germany warns companies to reduce dependence on China | Financial Times

    Health

    Intergenerational transmission of mental health problems – Marginal REVOLUTION – interesting how Norway were able to get positive results by early intervention in families where the parents had mental health disorders

    Hong Kong

    Are cities in Asia becoming better places to live? – its fascinating to see that Singapore isn’t in the top five and Hong Kong has fallen completely out of most liveable based on this data

    How to

    Delia Online | Official site with recipes, cookery school and how to videos

    How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide 

    Indonesia

    Indonesians going into debt for Blackpink, Coldplay tickets shows dark side of fintech revolution | South China Morning Post 

    Innovation

    AI-powered brain surgery becomes a reality in Hong Kong after launch from state-run research centre | South China Morning Post 

    Japan

    Japan failed at social media – Matt Alt’s Pure Invention – is it failure to innovate or a failure to regulate US products I suspect the latter

    Street Style in Tokyo: “Harajuku Is Like a Fashion Gallery With a Free Entrance” | Vogue“In present-day Harajuku, there are probably more foreigners walking around than there are Japanese people. They used to be watchers of Harajuku fashion, but now they are players; it’s a new movement in the neighborhood. In this story, there are many Chinese and Korean individuals who seem to enjoy and carry forward the Harajuku fashion of the 1990s and 2000s, rather than simply copying it

    Luxury

    Burberry revenue growth weighed down by falling Americas sales | Financial Times

    Marketing

    Full article: ChatGPT, AI Advertising, and Advertising Research and Education – leading scholars and industry thinkers in our field and neighboring disciplines are actively examining and engaging in debates on AI technologies and their applications to advertising practices and effects. However, we have not imagined such powerful AI technologies as ChatGPT emerging and spreading in the general public so quickly. According to industry estimates, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly users in the first two months after launch, which makes it the fastest-growing technology application in history, but web traffic has since peaked. ChatGPT and other generative AI technologies in this new phase of AI advancement are expected to completely transform the advertising business and research. More research is urgently needed to gain an understanding of the short- and long-term impacts of this new generation of transformative AI technologies on advertising across the micro, meso, and macro levels

    Influence 100: In-House PR Budgets Slashed | Provoke MediaThis year, our Influence 100 cohort control a combined spend of $3.7 billion, a drop of more than $1bn on last year’s figure of $4.8 billion and far below 2020’s dip to $4.2 billion, after being at $4.8 billion in 2019. The drop is largely down to a significant dip in the number of our Influence 100 managing top-end budgets. Last year the number who managed budgets of more than $100m was 25% (compared to 27% in 2021), while this year it is down to 17%. The number of CMOs and CCOs managing between $75 and $100m also dropped, from 12.5% last year to 10% (although this is on a par with 11% in 2021), and the next budget bracket, $50-$75m, also saw a drop from 17.5% to 13%, one percentage point lower than 2021. The proportion of communications leaders managing budgets of between $25m and $50m remained the same as last year, at 10%, and the only budget bracket that saw an increase was at the lower end, $10m-$25m, which shot up from 12.5% to 30% – unsurprising given the dip in advertising spend

    Materials

    Machine learning based design optimisation was used to create additive manufactured brackets for NASA instruments. They feel organic in nature, presumably because they the result of millions of virtual trials, rather like generations of biological evolution.

    Media

    TV producers wanted AI rights of extras forever, says union • The Register – makes sense when you think why the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild are on strike

    Opinion | Fictional thriller by David Ignatius: The Tao of Deception – Washington Post – interesting return to serialised fiction

    Security

    UK response to Chinese spying ‘completely inadequate’, report finds | Financial Times

    Vatican’s influence falters in Ukraine and across the region – Coda Story 

    David Ignatius on how the MSS routed the CIA’s network in China and the state of China at the present time.

    Software

    Artificial Intelligence – Platform wars | Radio Free Mobile

    How do AI systems like ChatGPT work? There’s a lot scientists don’t know. – Vox – timely reminder of the way things have been for a decade or so since Google engineers didn’t get ‘RankBrain’ and the decisions it was making

    Technology

    With reported improvements in 3/4nm yield rates, Samsung sees increased possibility of customers returning – TSMC has been 10 percent growth in the last quarter, which must be a rich target for Samsung now they have their process right

  • Chinese bank risk+ more things

    Chinese bank risk

    A story caught my eye in Hong Kong’s English language establishment paper related to Chinese bank risk. Goldman Sachs issued a report on (maybe) five Chinese banks, changing their ratings to neutral and sell. Eastmoney.com is a subsidiary of government newspaper People’s Daily, came out to stoutly defend the banks against concern about Chinese bank risk.

    Communist Party mouthpiece takes issue with Goldman Sachs report calling a ‘sell’ on some major Chinese bank stocks | South China Morning Post – I had a look at the article in question. From a Chinese bank risk aspect of things a number of things caught my eye:

    • Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank have the largest exposure to real estate, accounting for 8% and 6% of total assets which the report authors are flagging as a canary in the coal mine for Chinese bank risk
    • CMB real estate loans accounted for 5.61% of about of total loans and advances
    • Ping An Bank real estate-related business bearing credit risk totalled 322.093 billion yuan, also down from the end of the previous year, and if this is taken as the numerator and divided by its total assets of 5.456 trillion yuan, it yields a share of about 5.9% – interesting choice of wording
    • Overall, the non-performing rate of the mainland real estate industry is still in a period of accelerated exposure in 2022, and the overall non-performing rate of listed banks for public real estate continues to rise to over 4.3%
    • There was a reference to “Industrial Bank” that has “deteriorating assets and liabilities” – I think that this is Industrial and Commerce Bank of China better known as ICBC. ICBC is recognised as a systemically important bank

    Systemically important bank means that Chinese bank risk becomes global economic risk. While it is state-owned (being one four original institutions that spun out of the Bank of China in 1979), it still exposes retail shareholders and bond holders around the world. Word on the grapevine is that a number of Goldman Sachs partners had long term holdings in ICBC for well over a decade, which explains the banks irrational exuberance for China AND means it would have been extremely hard for the analysts to name check ICBC in this kind of report. During the 2006 IPO, Goldman Sachs purchased a 5.75% stake for US$2.6 billion, this apparently was the largest sum Goldman Sachs has ever invested at the time.

    ICBC. Foggy night.
    ICBC. Foggy night. – QuantFoto released under a CC licence

    Of course issuing this kind of report in China means that they can’t talk about associated Chinese bank risk. For instance:

    • Property development company bonds which just a few months ago Goldman Sachs thought would deliver high returns partly down to Chinese government support in the sector.
    • Local governments depend on property development for their main source of revenue and have issued a lot of debt which they may now find harder to pay off resulting in further Chinese bank risk. Given that this is more directly linked to government, it may get less scrutiny
    • Finally China’s industrial and services economic growth seems to be an issue with youth unemployment running very high at 20%

    Business

    Scaling up or selling out: a German take on a corporate dilemma | Financial Times

    China

    The ‘Curse of 35’ in China: Job-hunters battle age discrimination — Radio Free Asia

    Consumer behaviour

    Meet the Psychedelic Boom’s First Responders | WIRED– this is likely to end very badly for some people. Having known p eople who had bad experiences growing up, I am leery of the trend towards psychedelics

    Interesting research from IPSOS, it sounds like the Cold War all over again circa early 1970s through to the mid-1980s.

    Economics

    Did supply constraints tilt the Phillips Curve? – Bank Underground – trying to understand global supply chains

    Trying to get reliable economic data on China as the government data tends to ‘harmonised’. Part of the problem is the information that local governments provide the central government and part of it is central government choosing to ‘tell the best China story’.

    Energy

    Will Toyota’s solid-state battery win bring back the magic? | Financial Times

    Clean public transport: Consortium pioneering hydrogen-fuelled buses in Hong Kong set to build city’s second refilling station | South China Morning Post 

    Expect China to increase solar panel dumping due to massive over-capacity. In addition these panels seem to be of low quality with a lower than expected panel life. Given the challenges that the Chinese are experiencing recycling the materials, they represent an environmental problem with a substantial risk of pollution.

    Finance

    Another nail in the coffin for private sector pension capitalism? | Financial Times

    Don’t lose the exponential benefits of fractional share trading | Financial Times

    Hong Kong

    Hong Kong national security law: who are the 8 targeted with HK$1 million bounties? Calls for sanctions, links to 2019 protests among alleged offences | South China Morning Post 

    Hong Kong police arrest five for helping exiled activists — Radio Free Asia

    Hong Kong government ‘spends millions’ to advance Beijing’s interests in Washington — Radio Free Asia

    Innovation

    Military briefing: Ukraine provides ideal ‘testing ground’ for western weaponry | Financial Times

    Ireland

    Changing demographics in Northern Ireland and unification

    Korea

    South Korea allows new bank entrants for first time in 30 years | Financial Times – echoes UK government criticism of banking sector

    Marketing

    Beyond belt-tightening: How marketing can drive resiliency during uncertain times | McKinsey – interesting read that’s about 50 percent right, probably too much of a bottom funnel focus and a more critical consideration of the marketing technology stack McKinsey are about 50 percent right. One thing that they haven’t done is leverage the marketing science research supported by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising on relative marketing spend and relative impact on market share. Also in-house agencies have serious problems due to cultural issues in clients.

    Tech brand TCL hands BCW global comms duties | Marketing-Interactive – makes sense given BCW’s history taking Chinese brands abroad with Huawei and DJI

    FTC Finalizes Revisions to the Endorsement Guides, Proposes New Rule for Consumer Reviews and Testimonials and Updates FTC Staff Guidance | Retail Trend Spotter 

    Materials

    Toyota claims battery breakthrough in potential boost for electric cars | Automotive industry | The Guardian

    Start-ups: smart clothes have been wearing experience for investors | Financial Times – smart fabrics didn’t win out over wearables

    Why is China blocking graphite exports to Sweden? | The Economist  – China was trying to cripple Sweden’s electric battery industry before it even got off the ground. This wasn’t about national security but economic domination

    Stella McCartney-backed leather alternative Mylo halts production | Vogue Business – US startup Bolt Threads has called time on its mycelium-based leather alternative Mylo — backed by Stella McCartney, Kering and Adidas — after failing to secure the funding necessary to scale

    Media

    The Eagles Announce ‘Final’ Tour Dates – Variety – following the lifecycle of their customer base. The Eagles attitude to covers, remixes and sampling always sat badly with me which is why I never bought any of their music new. I am sure this tour will keep them wealthy for the rest of their lives however

    TikTok for Business | Marketing & Advertising on TikTok

    Nineteen minutes inside Sir Martin Sorrell’s head | Unmade – interesting comments on media planning, will this range of technology actually get programmatic right?

    Irish Voice newspaper ceases print after 36 years | Irish Central – print edition finishes with the publication continuing online only as Irish Central

    Daring Fireball: GQ Shits the Bed 

    Online

    Who’s behind all those weird product ads on Twitter? | Financial Times – fascinating bit of investigative journalism that ends up with a Vietnam based company that fuels drop shipping

    Daring Fireball: Threads 

    Retailing

    Japan Airlines gives tourists chance to reduce baggage by renting clothes | Financial Times – this could impact Japanese companies like Uniqlo tourist sales.

    Interesting to see the reasons why US retailers have failed when looking to expand internationally. Target’s failure in Canada is fascinating.

    Security

    Russia deploys ‘Albatross’ made in Iran-backed drone factory | Financial Times

    Daring Fireball: Le Monde: ‘France Set to Allow Police to Spy Through Phones’

    Software

    The environmentally conscious Fairphone 4 is finally coming to the US – The Verge – interesting focus on privacy within the software that Fairphone is using for the US market launch

    Interesting YouTube clip about how open source software is being used to extend the lives of Nissan Leaf electric cars. It raises interesting points for consideration about the right to repair debates that have been happening in areas like agricultural machinery through to Apple smartphones.

    The devil is in the details of the claims and the research with regards ChatGPT driven trading. TL;DR ChatGPT didn’t trade any better and ChatGPT 4 did worse than earlier versions, implying random chance rather than ability

    Style

    Highsnobiety to cut 10 percent of jobs in cost-cutting measures | Fashion United

  • Tools are changing

    I was sat thinking about a client project the other day. I was using Miro as a way to articulate my thoughts into something that the creatives could work with. As I stared off at a Post-It note on my wall that made up part of the prototype the idea that the tools are changing sailed in and sat at the front of my thoughts. I became deeply uncomfortable.

    At a conscious level I know that technology and the tools that I use based on it are changing all the time. But what made me more uncomfortable was a deeper shift in the model of how the tools interacted with me and where the control sat. Sometimes it feels as if we longer use them, instead they use us. To what end has never been clearly articulated.

    This quote from my first agency boss describes the nascent online landscape of the late 1990s:

    After 50 years of radio and TV pushing marketing messages at people, it took technology to turn it around so that people pull in the information they want. Today’s new consumer has a cultural comfort with interactivity that just keeps building on itself, and it’s all because the technology is finally where it needs to be to let them do it.

    Larry Weber on the old Weber Group website

    I just couldn’t imagine the same thing being said about the experience of most netizens in our social platform dominated world today. The tools are changing, they now use us more than we use them.

    I was particularly struck by this statement quoted in a BBC article and attributed to Thomas Bangalter

    “Daft Punk was a project that blurred the line between reality and fiction with these robot characters. It was a very important point for me and Guy-Man[uel] to not spoil the narrative while it was happening. 

    “Now the story has ended, it felt interesting to reveal part of the creative process that is very much human-based and not algorithmic of any sort.”

    That was, he says, Daft Punk’s central thesis: That the line between humanity and technology should remain absolute.

    “It was an exploration, I would say, starting with the machines and going away from them. I love technology as a tool [but] I’m somehow terrified of the nature of the relationship between the machines and ourselves.”

    Life after Daft Punk: Thomas Bangalter on ballet, AI and ditching the helmet by Mark Savage – BBC (April 4, 2023

    Why tools are changing

    The Apple Mac: a bicycle for the mind

    A couple of my friends had home computers that were used as glorified games consoles. There was little technological value in playing Daley Thompson’s Decathlon or Frogger using the rubbery keyboard of a Sinclair ZX Spectrum. My school had a computer lab with three seldom used BBC microcomputers and I had one lesson on using Excel during my time in school. This all meant that I really came to computing in the late 1980s and early 1990s. I was a self taught Mac user. From someone who was used to hand writing or typing documents, cut-and-paste was a radical new way of creating a document.

    Having my own Mac and printer helped me get through my degree relatively stress free compared to my peers who largely relied on the University’s computer and printing services facilities.

    Over the time I have used computing, I’ve noticed that technology tools are changing and not for the better. Computers were seen to be personally empowering and enabling. This age of computing is encapsulated by a phrase attributed to Steve Jobs about the Mac being ‘a bicycle for the mind‘. Steve Jobs also used the analogy of a computing appliance and used both Cuisinart and Sony product philosophies as exemplars for the Apple II and Mac.

    In many respect, this was similar to the vision that Stewart Brand had for the ‘back to the land’ hippie movement bible The Whole Earth catalog. The subtitle of the catalog was ‘Access to Tools’. The tools in question were an assortment of recommendations including books, maps, garden implements, specialised clothing, woodworking tools, forestry gear, tents, welding equipment, professional journals, early synthesizers, and personal computers.

    Mother of All Demos

    Throughout his life Brand has had a knack of being at the right place and at the right time. Including help facilitate Doug Engelbart’s ‘Mother of All Demos‘ – a public demonstration of prototype technologies that mapped out our digital age. Being in the audience for the Mother of All Demos must have been mind-blowing at the time. For an audience that would have found computer terminals transformative, there would have been a realisation that their tools are changing right in front of their eyes.

    Cuisinart

    Mac Plus El Mirage
    Mac Classic

    The rounded edges and corners of the Apple II’s plastic case was inspired by Cuisinart, as was the Mac Classic’s ‘sit up and beg‘ stance. The idea that the the Mac was a ‘computing appliance’; something that just worked. For IT professionals of a certain age who had invested in Microsoft skills, this was mistaken for the Mac being a ‘toy’.

    Before the web, this led to a religious type split. I have been a proud Mac user since 1989, which gives you an idea on where I sat. The IT professionals did not believe in personal user empowerment, but they would also struggle with the way tools are changing now as well. The thinking of these IT professionals can be seen in the clunky experience of using SAP enterprise software today.

    The overlooked HyperCard

    HyperCard

    Some of the tools were brilliant ideas but didn’t get widespread adoption. My personal favourite of software in this category would be Apple’s HyperCard. HyperCard was a framework that allowed you to build processes from an address book or digital brochures to mind-blowing experiences and even running factories.

    For example, Northwest Airlines managed their entire plane maintenance management programme using HyperCard. Nabisco ran at least one factory using HyperCard as an enterprise resource planning platform.

    HyperCard was ‘No Code Tools‘ before the founders of AirTable or Zoho Creator were even born.

    Danny Goodman who wrote a lot of the guides to HyperCard, went on to write some of the best books for programming assorted web and mobile technologies from JavaScript to iOS development.

    This empowerment extended to many web technologies and web services. Email, forums and chat apps radically changed business and personal networks. It was now easier to access information and expertise. The late 1990s and email saw increased worker collaboration across offices and departments. You saw services like Yahoo! Pipes provided to ‘power-user’ consumer netizens during the Web 2.0 era. RSS newsreaders like Newsblur do a similar job, as do social bookmarking services like pinboard.in.

    Modal interfaces and software buttons

    When electronic products first moved into the home they had mechanical buttons. Buttons limited functionality, but allowed for the creation of highly intuitive products. Buttons have since been proven to be faster and safer to use automotive applications than touch screens. The use of touch screens being driven as by the car manufacturers marketing department. Logic controls were buttons connected to servos that provided a slimmer finish, a more sophisticated looking product.

    Depending on the device they also allowed for the use of software.

    System Video 2000

    But sophistication gave way to confusion as buttons often had to do multiple jobs and use a modal interface. I spent a good deal of my childhood programming my parents video recorders and setting the time on their digital watches and clocks in the home and the car.

    Modal interfaces have their place. During my time as a student I worked for MBNA in customer service roles. The modal interface of the CardPac software allowed me to move around a customer record much faster than a point and click ‘windows type’ application. This was particularly important handling stressed customers who have been waiting to speak to a customer services rep in a phone queue.

    I would switch into edit mode and quickly tab through fields of data faster than scrolling down and hunting and pecking with a mouse and cursor.

    It’s not so much fun if you make one error programming a mid-1980s video cassette recorder and have to go cycle through the rest of the process to go back to the beginning and start again.

    You also started to see software defined buttons. This appeared on machine tools and music instruments first. If there was ‘Mac like moment’ for software defined switches, it was the launch of the first commercially successful digital synthesiser: the Yamaha DX-7.

    The Yamaha DX7 was so powerful, yet challenging to use – that a veritable cottage industry of books and tutorial videos like the one above. One of the most prominent manual writers was Lorenz Rychner, who wrote guides for various Yamaha electronic instruments as well as later Casio, Kawai, Korg and Roland instruments that was inspired by the Yamaha DX7. Eventually when personal computers became used in music production, Yamaha DX7 editing software appeared as well.

    Getting these electronic instruments to work saw a new artist credit appear on albums and singles; that of MIDI programmer. In the 1980s, the audio tools are changing, but experts are required to get the most out of them due to software defined buttons. Apple took this to its natural extreme with a MacBook Pro model that replaced function keys with a touch screen that changes controls based on what software programme is being used at a given time.

    Pictures under glass

    Technology allowed the entire display surface to become software defined buttons, directly with your fingers. This robbed people of the tactic feedback of a button, knob or lever to create a phenomenon of ‘pictures under glass‘. This changes our relationship between our tools and how we interact with them. It also opened up new ways of interaction.

    Swiping and gestures

    Korean smartphone manufacturer managed to reduce the kind of gesture tracking that was previously in living rooms with Sony EyeToy series of devices controlling a Sony Playstation of Microsoft Kinect into a smartphone handset.

    Pantech’s Vega LTE smartphone allowed control at a distance. This was based on technology from eyeSight to do gesture controls.

    Within applications, dating app Tinder created gestures that became ‘common language‘ – to swipe left as in reject an option. But the very gesture of swiping left was part of gamification as the tools are changing from working for us, to us working for them. They are no longer tools of personal liberation in terms of ideas and thinking.

    Digital drugs

    Captology to captured users

    To talk about how tools changed and became items of personal enslavement one has to back to the late 1990s. B.J. Fogg is a combination of media theorist and technologist with a doctorate in communications and heading a behavioural design lab at Stanford University.

    The insight that B.J. Fogg had was that with the right design cues, computers could become ‘charismatic’ in nature. They could manipulate behaviour. Professor Fogg converted his doctorate paper into a new discipline that he called ‘captology‘ ( from computers as persuasive techologies). By 2003, Fogg had realised that some of the methods had negative impacts on users. He flagged ethical use to his own students and in his book Persuasive Technology: Using Computers to Change What We Think and Do.

    Unfortunately, a number of Fogg’s students and readers took these unethical tactics into Silicon Valley businesses and used them as ‘growth hacks’ for brands as diverse as Tinder (swipe right) and Robinhood the stock trading app that gamified transactions. This was the dark side of ‘move fast and break things’ mentality prevalent in Silicon Valley at the time.

    Other’s like Fogg’s student Tristan Harris saw what was happening and were horrified. Harris went on to co-found The Center for Humane Technology – an organisation raising awareness of the problems and holding the organisations to account.

    Addiction

    What was then termed internet addiction or video gaming addiction was by recognised as an issue by both the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Chinese government. As far back as 2006, China estimated the number of addicts in its country as numbering 2 million children and young adults.

    Move Fast and Break Things

    Psychoactive tools

    Modern technology didn’t bring a distortion of reality on their own. Regulation and media owners have a lot to do with it. The origin of the modern ‘filter bubble’ was said to be syndicated talk radio host Rush Limbaugh as media regulations were relaxed. This allowed media eco-systems to be created that catered to left wing or right wing views. There was no longer a common view, which people could hold different opinions over, but ‘the truth’ and ‘alternative facts’

    “You’re saying it’s a falsehood, and Sean Spicer, our press secretary, gave alternative facts,”

    Kellyanne Conway quoted in The Atlantic magazine

    A combination of societal isolation, reductive algorithmic models, bad actors and dark pattern designs leave users more vulnerable in the online world. Machine learning and internet content allow for the creation of an overwhelming amount of content.

    Whole worlds can be created. This means that there is no social glue of common experiences. There is no consensus and technology enables the bar bell.

    Being boring

    So enough about digital drugs. Let’s back to something more boring. In the appropriately titled essay The Future is Boring by Eliane Glaser published by Monocle in its Monocle Companion Volume 2: 50 essays for a brighter future; the author discusses the pointless rituals of techno-capitalism. The reason for these pointless rituals is often that the tools are changing, providing useless digitally mediated services and access that is ultimately unfulfilling in both form and function.

  • ChatGPT for planning

    I was reluctant to put fingers to keyboards to type up a blog post about ChatGPT for planning. I didn’t want to be THAT person that turns out personal branding content on the latest fad as narcissistic clickbait. There is also a larger question of is it worth using ChatGPT for planning now that it has moved to a subscription model? Finally, while the next evolution of ChatGPT won’t be launched for a while, it propertied abilities seem to be evolving in certain areas the more people use it. Much of what I will cover in ChatGPT for planning also has an application with Bing’s search chat interface, or services like Notion.

    The Server Farm Has Landed

    Thinking about ChatGPT for planning, came after colleagues working the design team introduced me to their experimental efforts using Midjourney for image creation. Autumn rolled into winter, and ChatGPT started to become more accessible as a tool for the general public.

    What is ChatGPT?

    ChatGPT is a class of machine learning platforms known as a large language model. It’s given a huge amount of data and analyses it. It then uses that data to build a probability based model for what might come after a given set of terms. For instance, a user may type:

    Tell me about Fenway Park, the baseball stadium in Boston

    And it would be highly probable that ChatGPT would talk about how the park is home to the Boston Red Sox major league baseball team because there is so much content out online about the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park.

    In this respect, the mechanism of ChatGPT seems to resemble Bayesian inference based on Bayes theorem in output, if not, mode of action.

    Bayes Theorem

    Named after the mathematician Thomas Bayes, the theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. For example, if the risk of having a car accident is known to decrease with the number of years driving without an accident; Bayes’ theorem allows the risk to an individual based on their prior driving record to be assessed more accurately by conditioning it relative to their driving experience, rather than simply assuming that the individual is typical of the wider population.

    Bayesian inference

    Bayesian inference is a type of statistical inference where Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. It works better with dynamically updatable data (like a user correction).

    Clear boundaries in using ChatGPT for planning

    I could see some obvious risks in ChatGPT in terms of how it works and in how it presents its responses. But, the more that I have looked into ChatGPT, the more that I saw how it could be useful. But that is contingent on having well-defined immutable guard rails are employed in the use of ChatGPT.

    A quick story

    This isn’t about using ChatGPT for planning, but using ChatGPT to help a friend out in January this year as they worked on their master’s degree. They were studying law and wanted to write an essay on a particular arcane area of law, doing a comparison between how it is implemented in two countries.

    We didn’t ask ChatGPT to write the essay, but used it to recommend academic authors who would have written papers on the areas of investigation, with a view to reading their works and incorporating their thinking as citations.

    We got names. Some of them wrote about law, but not the specific area that we asked about. Others didn’t seem to exist at all when we looked them up via academic database tools and Google. ChatGPT’s process had somehow conjured them up.

    Other people have been less careful than we were:

    I would not be surprised if these examples that have been called out are just the tip of the iceberg and others have got away with similar practices largely undetected. Also knowledge workers may be reticent to admit whether, or how much they rely on machine learning based tools. Think about that for a moment…

    Watchouts of using ChatGPT for planning

    ChatGPT can give you an example in terms of writing style. ChatGPT has been used successfully as a church sermon writing tool as an example. But everything needs to be separately fact checked – trust but verify.

    Secondly, ChatGPT can be used to ideate around a theme, in a similar way to using a thesaurus. This could be things like language for messaging, inspiration for search terms or even terms to use in the creation of stimuli for mood boards. Again, I would look to check all of this against a thesaurus as well.

    Additional inspiration on using ChatGPT for planning

    The Shopping List Edition – by Antony Mayfield – Antonym

    Power and Weirdness: How to Use Bing AI – by Ethan Mollick 

    The rise of Skynet – by Miguel – Genuine Impact Newsletter

    Oh the Things You’ll Do with Bing’s ChatGPT – Features Sneak Peek | Medium 

    Reinventing search with a new AI-powered Microsoft Bing and Edge, your copilot for the web – The Official Microsoft Blog 

    5 Uses for ChatGPT that Aren’t Fan Fiction or Cheating at School | WIRED

  • Synthesis + more things

    Synthesis

    Synclavier Regen Synthesizer Introduction – Synthtopia – the old New England Digital Synclavier was a floor to ceiling rack full of equipment paired with a monitor mouse, computer keyboard and musical keyboard. Synclavier was an early digital synthesiser and then evolved to create the first digital audio workstation, featuring digital tapeless recording, digital effects, sequencing of instruments, sampling and synthesis. By 1980, the Synclavier 2 was launched. Then you started to increased adoption including Michael Jackson for this Thriller album and across the US film industry for sound effects work.

    Michael Hoenig 1987
    Producer Michael Hoenig circa 1987

    The sampling and synthesis of Synclavier helped define the sound of 1980s record production for a wide range of groups from the era including

    At the time there was concern that the digital synthesis and sampling of the Synclavier would put live music out of the business, so many concert halls in the US banned the use of the Synclavier.

    Mirage FM: how patten created the first LP made entirely from AI sounds | Dazed – Pattern’s album brings synthesis forward to the present day. A mix of crude pads and textures hint at how machine learning can change synthesis over time. At the moment, record labels are looking to restrict the use of machine learning, which they view as a similar threat to the MP3 format of the early 2000s and digital sampling from the early 1990s. Like earlier technologies, they will eventually make their peace with machine learning based synthesis and use the opportunity to further gouge artists and creators

    Beauty

    Coty Group Global Chief Brands Officer Stefano Curti on plans to triple its China business through a strategic shake-up 

    China

    An in-depth look at China’s consumer electronics market | Daxue Consulting

    Outsourcing of internal security operations

    Ethics

    The Sustainable Fashion Communication Playbook | UNEP – UN Environment Programme – interesting that this doesn’t look at the quality of clothing: making better longer lasting items

    Hong Kong

    Three years of National Security Law in Hong Kong: Farewell “special status”? | Mericsthe NSL has severely reduced the rule of law in Hong Kong by granting the government powers to circumvent the courts and thereby deny defendants a fair trial. The case of media entrepreneur Jimmy Lai illustrates how this presents a risk to businesses and their property rights. The Hong Kong government froze Lai’s majority of shares in his company Next Media, which led to its liquidation and the end of the pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily. The case is highly political and does not reflect the situation of most businesses, but it does show the power the Hong Kong government can wield over business.  – German think tank on the NSL

    ‘Happy Hong Kong’: free coffee, discounts and 1-minute shopping spree up for grabs in HK$150 million retail promotion to get people smiling | South China Morning Post – but what doe these promotions do to brand? Byron Sharp’s work indicates that price promotions likely damage brand over time

    Japan

    Facing skills gap, Japan to train teenagers in battery tech – Quartz 

    RESTAURANT OF MISTAKEN ORDERS

    Luxury

    Rolex and Patek Philippe Prices Drop Amid High-Interest Rates and More – Robb Report

    Marketing

    Edelman Cutting Roughly 240 Employees Amid Reorganization | Provoke Media – Edelman is just the canary in the coal mine. Beyond (part of Next Fifteen) is closing down its London office, smaller agencies have been going to the wall and another of my former agency alma mater WE are laying off just under 5 per cent of their headcount. I don’t remember this happening during the 2008 financial crisis. There are likely to be several factors blamed:

    Rising interest rates combined with already lean cashflow has driven some agencies to the wall

    • Declining economic conditions has resulted in declining marketing budgets
    • Some agencies (Edelman being a case in point) bulked up on talent, expecting a fast exit from COVID driven decline
    • Brands are getting shaky on the commitment to brand purpose which will hit a lot of below the line agencies particularly hard
    • More marketing spend is being spent on innovation with an expectation of cost savings down the line (particularly in production and across B2B marketing)

    Brand Salience, Brand Availability and Other Metrics — Purdie Pascoe 

    Materials

    Rheinmetall Presents Mobile Smart Factory for Mobile Production of Spare Parts for Battle Damage Repair – Soldier Systems Daily 

    Online

    Russia’s digital scramble to control the ‘coup’ narrative – Coda Story

    Security

    “Russian spies are blowing up one by one:” Russian hockey player arrested on spy charges in Poland – War Is Boring 

    Russian Spies, War Ministers Reliant on Cybercrime in Pariah State | Dark Reading – lacking on the ground options to attack critical infrastructure due to decline in human spy network

    Software

    AI in chip design: Where does Cadence stand? | DigiTimes

    Telecoms

    China approved 6 GHz band for cellular services – PingWest

    Hackers attack Russian satellite telecom provider, claim affiliation with Wagner Group | CyberScoop

    Web of no web

    Google reportedly gives up on making AR glasses—for the third time | Ars Technica

    Wireless

    MikroE welcomes back IrDA with Click board | EETimes – IrDA was first introduced in 1994 for consumer equipment but has since been used in areas such as power systems where a light-based system is safer or RF is problematic. It’s slow with data rates up to 115kbit/s at 1 metre. The reality is usually much slower. I used to use IrDA for transferring business cards of a few KB each which would take 30 seconds or more