Category: media | 媒體 | 미디어 | メディア

It makes sense to start this category with warning. Marshall McLuhan was most famous for his insight – The medium is the message: it isn’t just the content of a media which matters, but the medium itself which most meaningfully changes the ways humans operate.

But McLuhan wasn’t an advocate of it, he saw dangers beneath the surface as this quote from his participation in the 1976 Canadian Forum shows.

“The violence that all electric media inflict in their users is that they are instantly invaded and deprived of their physical bodies and are merged in a network of extensions of their own nervous systems. As if this were not sufficient violence or invasion of individual rights, the elimination of the physical bodies of the electric media users also deprives them of the means of relating the program experience of their private, individual selves, even as instant involvement suppresses private identity. The loss of individual and personal meaning via the electronic media ensures a corresponding and reciprocal violence from those so deprived of their identities; for violence, whether spiritual or physical, is a quest for identity and the meaningful. The less identity, the more violence.”

McLuhan was concerned with the mass media, in particular the effect of television on society. Yet the content is atemporal. I am sure the warning would have fitted in with rock and roll singles during the 1950s or social media platforms today.

I am concerned not only changes in platforms and consumer behaviour but the interaction of those platforms with societal structures.

Gaming as politics

This post on gaming as politics was inspired by a Taiwanese adventure game played on mobile phones. The game in question is considered a national security risk by the Hong Kong government. (In China, it wouldn’t be able to be downloaded anyway).

Reversed Front: Bonfire – banned in Hong Kong

Chris Tang, the current secretary of security for the Hong Kong government said that having the game on your phone or playing it was a national security law offence. The game was an act of ‘soft resistance’ designed to corrupt Hong Kong’s youth.

According to a statement by the National Security Department (NSD) of the Hong Kong Police Force, Reversed Front: Bonfire is

…a game with the aim of promoting secessionist agendas such as “Taiwan independence” and “Hong Kong independence”, advocating armed revolution and the overthrow of the fundamental system of the People’s Republic of China established by the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China. It also has an intention to provoke hatred towards the Central Authorities and the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Imagine an anti-communist version of Myst that’s more text driven, built by diesel punk anime and waifu fans and you have a good idea of what Reversed Front: Bonfire is.

The developers at ESC Taiwan do not hide their views. It is a great example of ‘gaming as politics’ with gameplay referencing key slogans of the 2019 Hong Kong protests.

The Hong Kong government is probably sensitive about dissent through gaming when protests went virtual on Nintendo’s Animal Crossing: New Horizons – when COVID restrictions made real-world protests impractical.

Gaming as politics beyond Hong Kong

Gaming as politics in Hong Kong is only the latest place where the medium as been used to press a political ideology.

As video game graphics have improved video game footage or machinima have been used to create footage that has been passed off as war footage. As it has got better, it has been easier to convince the casual observer on social media. Examples include HAMAS and Israel, Israel and Iran, Russia and Ukraine and Russia in Syria.

A Ukrainian research paper Video Games As Deep Media: challenges during the Russian-Ukraine war outlines how both sides have used video games as a propaganda channel. Ukrainians have skilfully used tools like customised gaming maps and conversations on online games to directly address Russians about the truth of the war. Gaming provided a space largely unmediated by the Russian government, at least at the beginning of the war.

On the flip side, Russia has pumped propaganda efforts into platforms like Minecraft and Roblox.

Political satire in games

Gaming as politics lent itself well to political satire. These are usually developed by independent software companies. For instance Bundesfighter II Turbo was based on caricatures of candidates in the 2017 German federal election. Hong Kong 1997 was a Japanese developed game based in a fantastical version of Hong Kong SAR – it also has the distinction of being considered one of the worst games ever.

Gaming as politics and as a political culture

Online radicalisation of gamers has become prevalent and the International Centre for Counter Terrorism provides advice for games design teams.

One issue that I have with the ICCT is that there is a lack of proportionality in what they talk about. I can understand that this is partly because even a small percentage of people can cause a lot of carnage. And like other emotive issues being absolutist tells a great story, which will help with everything from grants to getting meetings with politicians. One assertion they make is quite interesting:

…the relative opaqueness of video game spaces provides an attractive opportunity to meet online and outside the watchful eye of law enforcement. Moreover, the presence of many young people who may be vulnerable to extremist messaging efforts creates ideal circumstances for exposure to extremist viewpoints. However, we argue that particular aspects of gaming culture may also have a hand in the proliferation of extremist beliefs. In the study by Kowert, Martel, and Swann, “[identity] fusion with gaming culture is uniquely predictive of a host of socially pernicious outcomes, including racism, sexism, and endorsement of extreme behaviors.” Examples of how such tendencies surface from time to time are numerous.

Their view is supported by academics, Political Psychology published a research paper on how far right organisations use online gaming as a pipeline to grow their numbers.

The example provided by ICCT is the Gamergate scandal. I would argue that Gamergate is part of a longitudinal trend amongst a proportion of young men towards social conservatism including ongoing misognystic expressions of their beliefs. Do I approve of Gamergate – no, do I believe that the blame is purely around the medium of gaming – also no.

KZ manager

Gaming as politics is a concept that predates the internet. KZ manager was a series of games with an anti-semitic theme. It was first published in 1988 for the Commodore 64 alongside other home computer platforms at the time. it was distributed from player to player by disc or dial-up bulletin boards. By 1989 it was banned in Germany, but kept being maintained and republished up until 2000.

Nihilism and gaming as politics

Nihilistic terrorism has now become enmeshed in gaming as politics. Nihilism implies the act for its own sake, without any ideology challenges the political nature of terrorism as a concept. Alex in A Clockwork Orange fits this nihilistic definition to a tee. The medium for living out the nihilistic fantasies has changed over time. From books, to exploitation films, shockumentaries such as Faces of Death. Connecting with other ‘like-minded’ individuals was transformed in online spaces. Gaming was just another media form adopted by the nihilists. It is still only a very small number of them that put their fantasies into any form of action.

More related Hong Kong stories here, and more on gaming here.

July 19, 2025
Apple development + more things
Apple development

Apple development changes was at the forefront of Apple’s WWDC keynote for 2025. I think that the focus on Apple development changes were happening for a few reasons:
- Apple got burned announcing sub-standard AI offerings last year.
- The new translucent interface is divisive.
- The multi-tasking iPad was interesting for power users, but most usage is as a communal device to consume content.
- Apple has a number of small on-device models that do particular things well. Which is why Apple needs to get developers on-board to come up with compelling uses.
- The Mac still has great hardware, passionate developers and a community passionate about great life-changing software. Apple development focus was coming home.
Apple Updates Its On-Device and Cloud AI Models, Introduces a New Developer API

China

The Next Labubu: What the Rise of Wakuku Tells Us About China’s Collectible Toy Wave | What’s on Weibo

Chinese cities are facing the financial abyss of their subway systems | Le Monde

Consumer behaviour

The gray wave: How an aging population is reshaping the economy | Mizuho Insights

College Students Are Using ‘No Contact Orders’ to Block Each Other in Real Life – WSJ

Culture

ChatGPT has changed how we speak – and how we think | TechFinitive

The working class always had ‘high’ culture – it was just stolen | The Independent

Energy

Rolls-Royce group wins government backing to build UK’s first small modular nuclear reactors | FT

Ethics

‘Positive review only’: Researchers hide AI prompts in papers – Nikkei Asia

Beyond Cannes – by Hamish McKenzie – The Substack Post

UNIQLO ‘Cai fan’ keychain kerfuffle: Where does inspiration end and imitation begin? | Marketing-Interactive

FMCG

Unilever acquires Dr. Squatch to expand men’s care portfolio | Personal Care Insights – the irony of this purchase given Dr Squatch’s positioning isn’t lost on me

Health

New Novo Nordisk drug could beat market leaders for weight loss, early results show | FT

Hong Kong

How my views on Hong Kong’s future have evolved | Stephen Roach

Luxury

Why luxury brands are sliding into the DMs | Vogue Business

Media

European broadcasters launch radio initiative to capture connected car opportunity – The Media Leader

Online

Creative Commons 4.0 has arrived on Flickr! | Flickr Blog

Security

Ingram Micro still silent 14 hours after global outage began • The Register

The Cyber Risks Behind The Iran-Israel-US Geopolitical Tensions | Forrester

UK govt says Chinese spying on the rise | Space War – so why did the UK sign off on the Chinese mega-embassy?

Taiwan

Digital Propaganda: How China Uses Short-Form Videos to Target Taiwan’s Youth | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University

Technology

Samsung delays $44 billion Texas chip fab — sources say completion halted because ‘there are no customers’ | Tom’s Hardware

Thailand

One Eye on Asia: Pathida Akkarajindanon – ‘Thai ads can hit you harder than you expect’ | Branding in Asia

‘Blood Connect’ – Inspiring Gen Z in Thailand to Value Blood Donation | Branding in Asia
July 13, 2025
May 2025 newsletter
May 2025 introduction – two little ducks (22) edition

Welcome to my May 2025 newsletter, this newsletter marks my 22nd issue. 22 is known in bingo halls and the Spanish national lottery as two little ducks.

In France, 22 is the equivalent of 5-0 in the English speaking world as slang for the police. 22 is an important number for people who believe in numerology. In Hong Kong, 22 is associated with good fortune. This is down to the number sounding similar to ‘easy’ or ‘bright’ in Cantonese.

I hope that you are tricked into thinking I am bright based this newsletter, so let’s jump in. Inspired by catching up with my old DJing partner Griff, this month I enjoyed the unashamedly joyous pumped-up sounds of Blackpool’s AZYR at the Boiler Room x TeleTech Festival in 2023. In particular the transition at the end of the set between Frankyeffe – Save me and Infectious! – I need your lovin’. (Extra trainspotter points if you knew that Infectious! is a homage / remake of N.R.G’s The Real Hardcore from a year earlier). Wear your headphones, it might be divisive playing the set out loud in the office. More bangers from AZYR here.

New reader?

If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here.

Things I’ve written.
- Predicting market share through share of search volume and what the rise of AI likely means.
- Reaching a precipice in hydrogen power and trends in Chinese skincare amongst other things.
Books that I have read.
- Careless People by Sarah Wynn Williams. Williams account of her time in Facebook had become the most discussed book of the spring in my social circle. I wrote a long review of it here.
- The Road to Conscious Machines by Michael Wooldridge examines the profound cultural impact of generative AI, which is currently experiencing a surge in both its cultural influence and practical applications. Drawing parallels to the internet’s transformative impact in the mid-to-late 1990s, where it permeated various aspects of society and fostered rapid adoption, Wooldridge traces the evolution of generative AI as a phenomenon that emerged gradually over the past half-century. Throughout the book, Wooldridge provides a comprehensive historical overview of AI, including the periods of research stagnation known as AI winters. This historical perspective equips readers with a nuanced understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of AI, enabling them to approach AI adoption with a well-informed perspective.
- As I finish this newsletter during the bank holiday weekend, my light reading is Rogue Asset by Andy McDermott. McDermott comes from a long line of British authors like Jack Higgins, Len Deighton, Frederick Forsyth and Mick Herron who provide novels aimed at a shrinking pool of readers – men. At least, if one is to believe what’s said in the media. Rogue Asset hinges on the premise that the UK has a unit which assassinates the countries enemies on a regular basis. Think somewhere between The Troubles era Det and the modern deep state trope. Our hero is snared into the plot by being discovered on the run thanks to his online behaviour – which is attributed to GCHQ; (but isn’t as mysterious as it sounds because of the programmatic advertising technology stack). So far so good for what it is. I will let know if it goes downhill as a read next month.
Things I have been inspired by.

Mmrytok

Limitations are often the mother of invention. That seems to be the theory behind mmrytok. Mmrytok allows you to do one post a day. It doesn’t support HTML formatting, it doesn’t allow you to link out and doesn’t have a newsfeed. So it’s easy-to-use because it’s less sophisticated than Geocities was. In this respect it is to social media and blogs what Punkt is to smartphones. In an always-on social time, I have found it liberating to use. You can see my page here. I heard of Mmrytok thanks to Matt Muir’s great newsletter Web Curios.

No, AI isn’t making you dumber

Australian documentary maker ColdFusion put together an interesting video essay on How AI is making you dumber.

Yes, you could argue that under certain attributes the population isn’t as smart as they have been in the past. Just last month I shared an article by John Burn-Murdoch. In the article he shared data of a longitudinal trend across countries and age-groups struggling with concentration, declining verbal and numerical reasoning. The problem with Burn-Murdoch’s article vis-a-vis the ColdFusion video is the timeline.

His article charts a decline further back than the rise of generative AI services. Mia Levitin in an essay for the FT attributed the decline in reading to the quick dopamine hits of social media content.

A college professor interviewed by The Atlantic put the decline in reading amongst his undergraduate students put it down to a practice in secondary education of atomising content. Pupils in high schools were assigned excerpts, poetry and news articles to read, but not complete books. This has impacted the size of vocabulary and grasp of language that students starting university now have.

This isn’t new territory, James Gleick in his book Faster documented the massive acceleration of information through the late 20th century and its effects on the general public. The underlying accelerant was described by Kevin Kelly in What Technology Wants as the technium – a continuous forward progress due to a massively interconnected system of technology.

There were concerns in research as far back as the late 1980s that television could be adversely affecting children’s reading comprehension and attention spans.

TL;DR – with generative AI you could become dumber, if you use it unwisely – but the problem lies with all of us and what we chose to do with our personal agency.

CIA advertise for Chinese spies

The CIA commissioned a couple of high production value adverts that they’ve been running on social media channels. The adverts are designed to encourage Chinese government employees to come forward as an agent. The sales pitch is about taking control.

A translation of the Chinese tagline: ‘The reason for choosing cooperation: to become the master of (one’s own) destiny‘. More details from the FT about the campaign here, and here’s the two executions currently running on YouTube.

It remains to be seen if the campaign will be effective. The Chinese Ministry of State Security managed to roll-up the CIA’s spy network back in 2010-2012. Up to 30 informants in China were executed.

Montirex

Merseyside sports-inspired lifestyle brand Montirex have published a film telling the brand story from its origins to the present day. The brand is expanding beyond its Merseyside roots to get national and international sales.

Trust, attitudes and use of artificial intelligence

A 2025 global study covering some 48 countries was conducted by KPMG in association with the University of Melbourne. Some key insights from the report. Consumer generative AI is being used instead of enterprise options by workers. Generative AI adopters still have self-perceived low AI skills but that doesn’t slow their adoption. There is higher adoption and trust rates in emerging markets than in developed markets.

Year-on-year we are seeing an increase in both distrust and trust for specific AI use cases, indicating that it is becoming a polarising subject. The lowest trust levels is in tech-savvy Finland. More here.

Chart of the month.

McDonald’s Restaurants saw a decline in sales. This was down to low income consumers spending less, while middle class earners still weren’t going into McDonalds. Normally when there is a recession, McDonalds should benefit from the more well-off trading down to McDonalds. Instead, fortunes have diverged into a ‘k-shaped’ recession. Lower income earners are hit, while middle classes aren’t. What Axios called the ‘McRecession‘.

Things I have watched.

Tony Arzenta (also known as Big Guns). The film is an early 1970s gallo film. French star Alain Delon appears in this classic retribution story based in Milan. As Tony Arzenta, Delon exacts revenge on the former bosses who killed his family by accident in a botched assassination attempt to prevent him from retiring.The film uses a wintry Milan as a good atmospheric backdrop for the action that plays out in a series of shoot-outs and car chases. It’s John Wick before it was even conceived. Delon brings a tension that other stars of the era like Charles Bronson failed to do in similar roles. As Arzenta’s targets flee across Europe, he goes through Germany and Denmark to catch up with them.

Sansho the Bailiff – as a film Sansho the Bailiff comes encumbered with a weight of praise. It is highly rated by film critics and Martin Scorsese had it as one of his must-watch films for young film makers. Director Kenji Mizoguchi assembled an ensemble cast of Japanese actors to tell a story of family hardship and poverty. Kazuo Miyagawa is key to the the production, providing a signature look to the cinematography. There is a tension between the emotional rollercoaster of the story and the reflective nature of the scenes portrayed – I don’t want to say too more, except that even the character actors like Kikue Môri (who plays a pivotal role in the plot as a priestess) are amazing in the film.

Warfare – I was a bit leery of watching Alex Garland’s Warfare after watching Civil War which was strong on aesthetics and emotion, but weak in terms of the creative conceits involved in making the story work. Warfare is the collective accounts of a US military unit during a two-hour fire fight. The story is told from multiple perspectives in real-time. The film captures the stress and boredom of inaction as well as what you would normally expect from this kind of film.

Useful tools.

Reddit Answers

Reddit Answers – alternative to Gigabrain that I recommended back in March. Like Gigabrain, Reddit Answers looks like the kind of knowledge search product that we failed to build at Yahoo! twenty years ago (or NORA as Microsoft has been calling the concept for the past few years). Reddit Answers is powered by Google Vertex AI.

Process online data like its peak web 2.0 all over again

While WordPress installations come with RSS enabled as standard and is something that can then be disabled, many types of sites aren’t RSS enabled. And where they are the web devs will often disable it just because. RSS app will create an RSS feed for websites that don’t have it. This allows you to pull it into data processing using something like Pipes. RSS app starts at $9.99 per month and goes up to $99.99 a month. Pipes starts at free and goes up to $79 per month.

The sales pitch.

I am currently working on a brand and creative strategy engagement at Google’s internal creative agency.

I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements in Q4 (October) – keep me in mind; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

More on what I have done here.

The End.

Ok this is the end of my May 2025 newsletter, I hope to see you all back here again in a month. Be excellent to each other and onward into spring, and I hope you enjoyed the last bank holiday until August.

Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.

Get in touch if there is anything that you’d like to recommend for the newsletter.
May 26, 2025
Careless People – A story of where I used to work by Sarah Wynn Williams
Careless People has been a much-discussed book in the circles that I am involved in. In the book, Wynn Williams outlines her career at Facebook / Meta in what was at the time a nascent public policy team. The term careless people is a highly appropriate reference to F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby.

While I was reading Careless People, The Great Gatsby was having a moment. It was the 100th anniversary of The Great Gatsby’s publication, and the ‘careless people’ quote was considered apropos for the times we are living in, in particular the Trump administration’s actions.

“They were careless people… they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

Anyway, back to Careless People, Wynn Williams outlines her experience from pitching to Facebook for a role that didn’t exist but was needed, through to navigating the global growth Facebook was undertaking at the time. The challenges that Wynn Williams faces can be broadly broken down into four areas (with specific allegations):
- Sexism and in/out group prejudice
- Sexual harassment (Joel Kaplan)
- Toxic managers (Sheryl Sandberg, Elliot Schrage)
- Poor management judgement (lying to Congress and providing assistance to authoritarian regimes)
What’s interesting about the book depends on the reader. Much of the experience was relatable to my own earlier experience at Yahoo! The long days, changing priorities, travel (which was much more of a thing pre-COVID), office politics and fiefdoms, the constant unintended consequences of inventing the future. Secondly, the Facebook management have bought into what Barbrook and Cameron termed The Californian Ideology in their 1995 essay of the same name.

“…the Californian Ideology promiscuously combines the free-wheeling spirit of the hippies and the entrepreneurial zeal of the yuppies. This amalgamation of opposites has been achieved through a profound faith in the emancipatory potential of the new information technologies.”

However, I feel fortunate to have worked with a mature leadership who knew what they didn’t know and realised that they lived in a global village. But that might be down to the fact that Yahoo! by the time I had got there had a fair share of ups and downs.

Careless People reminded me a lot of Barbarians Led by Bill Gates, written by Jennifer Edstrom and Martin Eller. Although they are separated by some 25 years between each being written. Both books tell the story of an imperfect organisation scaling to an opportunity— I have written about Barbarians here. Wynn Williams is the better storyteller, providing a coherent and engaging path through the narrative.

I can recommend Careless People as a good book to read, I finished it off over a bank holiday weekend whilst nursing a sprained ankle. For people in advertising and marketing it won’t be that surprising, it confirms many things that were ‘common knowledge’ in the industry. For the general public, it will be shocking given the facts that the author marshals together.

Would I have thought reading Accidental Empires or Barbarians Led by Bill Gates in the late 1990s that Bill Gates would have transformed from the soulless ‘borg leader’ portrayed to the voice of relative reason he is today? Probably not, there might be hope for Zuckerberg at least out of the cast of characters in the book.

Wynn Williams is now exploring the edges of policy and artificial intelligence and is likely someone worth keeping an eye on.
May 5, 2025
Share of search volume

Les Binet did some sterling work thinking about share of search volume as part of his ongoing work looking at marketing effectiveness.

In order to understand share of search volume, we have to go back to 1990 when former advertising veteran and professor John Philip Jones^[i] published a paper in the Harvard Business Review^[ii] and a subsequent book^[iii].

Jones’ research around the linkage between advertising and sales by looking at advertising including tools of his invention STAS (short term advertising strength)^[iv] and AIC (advertising intensiveness curve). One of Jones’ key findings was the linkage between a brand’s share of voice and its market share. One of the biggest predictors of brand growth was ESoV (excess share of voice). ESoV is when a brand has a share of voice in excess of the proportion needed to maintain its market share.

During economic good times this might be down to an increase in brand building marketing spend, not only advertising and public relations, but also influencer and sports sponsorships with variable^[v] results.

During recessionary times^[vi], it might be maintaining brand building marketing spend when the competitors are cutting back.

Part of this brand building work overlaps with increasing marketing penetration through increasing the number of places where the brand is available. During the 95 percent of time that you are not in a buying mindset when you pass a product display in a supermarket it’s a billboard – doing the brand building work.

Jones’ findings were later validated by Peter Field and Les Binet’s work on marketing efficiency^[vii], and in the summation of research^[viii] from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science by Byron Sharp.

Share of search volume

The clever thing that Les Binet^[ix] did with share of search volume^[x] was find it as a predictor on the likely time when ESoV was likely to impact with a growth in market share AND, he found that the share of search volume change mapped neatly on to market share change.

The challenge is that different sectors have different times between a change in share of search volume and the corresponding change in market share^[xi].

“For mobile phone handsets, Binet further ventured, share of search leads market share “by about six months” as a performance indicator – offering marketers a chance to adapt their strategies if needed if a decline is expected.

“If the brand … had access to the share of search data at the time, it would have had a six-month warning that share of market was about to turn around,” Binet said. “That’s an incredibly useful metric.”

Share of search’s predictive quality for energy brands, Binet explained, was noticeably shorter, at just “nought to three months.”

For automakers, by contrast, share of search anticipates market share by “nine to 12 months,” he said – a significant timeframe for marketers to potentially refine strategies.

Breaking out data for Volkswagen, the auto marque, provided corroboration that sales forecasts based on share of search “are incredibly close to what actually happened,” Binet said.”

Search considerations

Much earlier in my career I worked on the Yahoo! Search business, back when the company had its own search technology and sold its own search advertising. One of the things that we found was that while overall search volume could be modelled accurately for the year based just on January’s search data – unexplained search volume peaks still needed to be ironed out by looking at rolling three-month values instead.

I found it interesting that Binet’s findings didn’t seem the same degree of ‘peakiness’ and was a much more valuable predictor once the time lag factor between share of search volume and market effects were known.

Share of search makes sense from a logical perspective. Many below-the-line activities have been focused on search in terms of aiding SEO to increase share of market opportunity, rather than an explicit appreciation of the impact on the share of search volume and consequently change in market share. My friend James Warren used to talk about public relations and related earned media activities such as organic social media as ‘offline SEO’. This thinking was incorporated into Interpublic’s ‘inline’ concept^[xii].

Future search

Share of search volume is complicated by a number of factors that are down to changing consumer behaviour.

Google’s focus on mobile upended the precision that we could search with and what we could search for, out went Boolean operators that could track down a highly relevant web page from 12 years ago. But we could now find the nearest coffee shop with wi-fi. YouTube^[xiii] due to its explanatory content became the second largest search engine globally (excluding China).

A good deal of product search has migrated to sites like eBay, Walmart^[xiv] and Amazon^[xv]. Part of the reason being is that their site search is good enough, they have a wide range of stock and speedy delivery. Amazon also benefits from Amazon Prime which drives customer purchase, but isn’t without controversy^[xvi].

Social and generative AI have unlocked new challengers to Google. Search on social platforms has become the go-to approach for many young people. Google acknowledged this when asked by Business Insider^[xvii].

“we face robust competition from an array of sources, including general and specialized search engines, as well as dedicated apps.”

The move to social is about tapping what we called back in my Yahoo! days ‘knowledge search’^[xviii]. Search startups like Gigabrain have tried to tap into this market by providing a better search function of Reddit forums.

Finally, the move towards consumer usage of generative AI tools based on large language models has created new competitors to Google including Perplexity and ChatGPT Search. Google itself has adopted LLMs in its own search offering and seen an increase in both revenue and profit from search advertising^[xix].

Share of model vs. share of search volume

In order to try and understand new LLM-driven search, innovator agencies like Jellyfish and Deft^[xx] have looked towards understanding share of model. Share of model tries to understand how LLMs perceive a given brand, in a similar way to the way SEO rankings held a similar place in search engine marketing. Like SEO, they look to understand whether the brand has sufficient optimisation of their digital properties to feature in recommendations by the models.

What share of model doesn’t give us is the consumer insight provided by share of search volume. Share of search volume is consumer behaviour driven and advertising influenced; share of model is algorithmic behaviour driven and training influenced.

^[i] John Philip Jones profile (United Kingdom) WARC

^[ii] Jones, J.P., (1990) Ad Spending: Maintaining Market Share (United States) Harvard Business Review

^[iii] Jones, J.P. (1995) When Ads Work: New Proof That Advertising Triggers Sales (United States) Jossey Brass

^[iv] Hansen, F., Olsen, J.K. STAS and Other Short Term Advertising Effect Measures (United Kingdom) WARC

^[v] Siu, A. (February 2025) The Honey scandal is a ‘wake-up call’ for the creator industry’s affiliate partnerships

^[vi] (2023) The power of excess share of voice (United Kingdom) Thinkbox

^[vii] Binet, L., Field, P. (2013) The Long and the Short of it: Balancing Short and Long-Term Marketing Strategies (United Kingdom) Institute of Practitioners in Advertising

^[viii] Sharp, B. (2010) How Brands Grow: What Marketers Don’t Know (United Kingdom) Oxford University Press

^[ix] (2020) Share of search can predict market share (United Kingdom) WARC

^[x] Binet, L. (2021) Share of Search (United Kingdom) Les Binet channel on YouTube

^[xi] (2020) Share of search can predict market share (United Kingdom) WARC

^[xii] Warren, J. (2008) Back to school (United Kingdom) PR Week (republished on PR 2.0)

^[xiii] (2010) YouTube Revenue Approaching $1 Billion Per Year [REPORT] (United States) Mashable

^[xiv] Levin, M.R., Lowitz, J.N. (November 2020) Grocery Drives Walmart Online Orders (United States) Consumer Intelligence Research Partners LLC (CIRP)

^[xv] Evans, B. (2023) Retail, search and Amazon’s $40bn ‘advertising’ business (United Kingdom) Benedict E vans

^[xvi] Stoller, M. (2021) Amazon Prime Is an Economy-Distorting Lie (United States) BIG by Matt Stoller

^[xvii] Delouya, S. (2022) Nearly Half of Gen Z Prefers TikTok and Instagram Over Google Search (United States) Business Insider

^[xviii] Carroll, G.M.S. (2021) Yahoo Answers (United Kingdom) renaissance chambara

^[xix] Morris, S. (2025) Alphabet shares gain as Google search boots profits (United Kingdom) Financial Times

^[xx] Crocombe, I. (2025) Share of Model (United Kingdom) Deft

April 27, 2025