Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • Brand winter & how to cope

    I started thinking about ‘brand winter’ when I read about TBWA Hong Kong and their ‘Brave Bear Pack’ offering. Campaign Asia describes as a new product focusing on growth hacking and cost efficient tools for surviving the financial winter brought on by Hong Kong’s anti-ELAB protests.

    I thought financial winter was an interesting metaphor to use in Hong Kong. I get the analogue of the ‘bear market’. But the winter in Hong Kong is very dry (rather than humid), cool and exceptionally pleasant for the most part.

    They probably feel that the ‘Brave Bear Pack’ opportunity has been amplified by the late 2019 novel Corona Virus outbreak.

    According to TBWA the services they are bundling in this are:

    • Demand mapping – which seems to be database / CRM / social marketing data. Looking at market size and going after niches or pockets of the market not previously addressed? A B2B analogue would be ABM (account based planning)
    • Acquisition System Architecture – seems to be marketing automation based on the descriptor
    • Efficient Content Production – presumably to provide the content for the Acquisition System Architecture?
    • Affordable Big Format Film Production – crowdsourced film a la Mofilm, with what I presume is a TBWA mark-up. Again I suspect that the primary role of this is to provide content for the Acquisition System Architecture?
    • Chatbot marketing (on Facebook and WeChat respectively) which is so two years ago
    • Crisis management – TBWA seem to be white labelling Ketchum to do planning and execution- pretty standard stuff in the PR world. A quick look at LinkedIn indicates that Ketchum’s Hong Kong office has a very small, junior team to handle any crisis that might come up

    I found it a depressing read. The tactics focus on the bare minimum to harvest sales from existing brand equity and and realised that we’re entering a brand winter. This is down to two factors acting as a catalyst: technology and economic decline.

    What do I mean by a brand winter? It’s a time when marketers focus on performance marketing exclusively. The most obvious influence in terminology was the financial winter analogue used in media coverage. I guess it also resonated past discussions I’d had about the circular funding cycle that artificial intelligence has gone through. Decades like now of massive investment, followed by funding droughts or ‘AI winters’.

    Technology factors for a brand winter

    During the last couple of economic recessions, after the dot com bust and the 2008 bank crisis new performance marketing platforms have come to the fore.

    The dot com bust heralded the rise of Google’s search advertising. The 2008 bank crisis saw Facebook and YouTube shake up online display advertising.

    What all of them had in common is their ability to drive an action (like a sale), but weren’t so good in building distinctive memorable brands.

    The second aspect, was that they could be very targeted using data. The idea is that the more targeted the message and the audience that its shown to; the more effective that it would be. Sounds like common sense doesn’t it? The actual results are counterintuitive. TakeMahabis the slipper brand that tried to build itself just on online media went into administration. Uber has tried to build a brand on price and online growth hacking still hasn’t made a profit.

    But this pivot has resulted in the creative side of the advertising industry being gutted.

    1707 - ad industry

    This presents four problems for marketers:

    • Effective marketing campaigns have found by research to consist of roughly 70 percent brand building and 30 percent performance marketing across both B2B and B2C marketing. Brand building’s full impact can be measured over decades or longer. According to qualitative research by Kings College London on China; Swiss and Japanese watch brands were sought after by post cultural revolution consumers. Brand equity endured despite the worst excesses of Chairman Mao and his red guards.
    • Digital marketing isn’t as effective as one would believe. Digital marketing is only as good as its data and its measures have been defined largely by the media platforms themselves. TV advertising is several orders of magnitude cheaper in terms of reach. Ad fraud is rampant and major brands pushed for better standards led by P&G and Unilever.
    • The plethora of channels has meant that many brands have spread their creative like a thin smear of peanut butter across toast. Again research indicates that this approach is counter-productive. Yet brands have adopted big production capability in-house to feed social channels and online advertising formats. This work is often done at the expense of creativity and ideas
    • Over targeting is counter productive according to research done by the Ehrensberg Bass Institute and captured in Sharp’s How Brands Grow. Instead the authors recommend a ‘smart mass approach’

    Marketers have given digital a greater amount of latitude than it deserves due to C-suite level concerns about digital disruption, stoked by their management consultants. When economic head-winds are met shorttermist thinking fit nicely with this performance marketing bias despite the issues outlined.

    Economic factors for a brand winter

    I won’t go into the background of the 2019 Hong Kong protests as that has been well-documented elsewhere. What I am interested for this post in is the economic impact.

    P1088698
    Studio Incendo: P1088698

    The 2019-2020 Hong Kong protests seemed to impact a number of sectors:

    • The FT talked about the serious downturn in life insurance policy sales. Life insurance policies are used by mainland Chinese to build up assets outside of China in dollar-denominated investments
    • Data released last year indicated that for the month of October 2019, retail sales were down 24%
    • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is looking to close 15 out of 91 stores in Hong Kong
    • Swiss watch sales in Hong Kong declined 4.6%
    • The leisure sector is down on earnings and Ocean Park is in serious financial trouble
    • Occupancy levels in Mandarin Oriental hotels went from 71% to 49%

    Products and services that are aimed at the mainland Chinese market have taken the brunt of the damage.

    Learning from the successes of the past

    I wanted to draw lessons from two events.

    • The first was the Great Depression and how it profoundly affected FMCG brand marketing
    • The second event is the 1967 Hong Kong riots

    The Great Depression

    The Great Depression has slipped from popular consciousness as the silent generation that lived through it have left us. The Wall Street Crash, the New Deal and the Jarrow march are far away from our collective experience.

    Dorothea Lange: Toward Los Angeles, California, 1937
    Dorothea Lange: Toward Los Angeles, California

    You may as well be talking about the Wild West or Victorian child labourers climbing up chimneys to clean them.

    In reality the Great Depression lasted from 1929 until World War 2. Global GDP dropped by 15 percent. Many countries looked to austerity policies to see themselves through. It didn’t work out that well as it depressed demand. And it was a similar case for companies, they cut back on marketing and a demand drop followed.

    By comparison Procter & Gamble (P&G) took a contrarian approach. P&G had been founded almost a century earlier. It hit its stride during the late 1850s as the American civil war raged. By 1911 its Crisco vegetable based shortening was launched. P&G were quick to realise the potential of the nescient radio stations springing up in the US and around the world.

    They were instrumental in coming up with a new brand marketing format of sponsored programming based around a long running drama called soap operas. Consumers may have been struggling to make ends meet; but soap operas allowed them to develop increased brand affinity.

    P&G also used the Great Depression to expand internationally by buying a UK-based soap maker. Because of this contra-cycle investment and spending in brand, P&G became one of the world’s largest companies with operations pretty much everywhere apart from Cuba and North Korea.

    In a mirror of this strategy, P&G are now investing in creating content for streaming television services which have emerged over the past few years, in a similar manner to the way radio grew a century earlier.

    The takeaway from P&G is that contra-cyclical investing for larger brands can pay dividends as the media landscape has less competition in terms of brand building communications. Secondly, adoption of technology makes sense IF the media can aid long term brand building activities.

    1967 Hong Kong riots

    In 1967, Hong Kong was a British colony on the edge of China. China had just entered the cultural revolution and ideological fervour was in full swing.

    Hong Kong was a hodge podge of identities, and that’s not even including ethnic minorities (Nepalis, caucasian people of different nationalities and south Asians who came across the British Empire).

    • Native Hong Kongers
    • Middle class, business owners and entertainers who fled places Shanghai towards the end of the civil war
    • Former nationalist soldiers who settled in Hong Kong (like their compatriots who ended up in Taiwan and Burma)
    • Mainland Chinese who left China during the hardships and famine due to the Great Leap Forwards. They entered the territory illegally, often swimming across the Sham Chun river or even the Hau Hoi Wan estuary.
    Hong Kong - Communists and Police
    Roger W: Communists and Police, Hong Kong 1967.

    Hong Kong was a tinder box. Work was plentiful but life was hard for the blue collar workers who struggled to make ends meet. What happened next depends on who you believe.

    Trouble was brewing, there had been unrest across a number of sectors:

    • Shipping
    • Taxi drivers
    • Textiles
    • Building materials

    The previous year there had been riots protesting a rise in ticket prices on the Star Ferry.

    At the time Hong Kong was a centre of plastics production, textiles and light industry. Much of the light industry started off literally as cottage industries. Plastic flowers were assembled from parts at home and workers were paid by piece work. In the 1950s, the government got rid of these low rise low quality housing. They built high-rise public housing and multi-storey public factories that rented units to light industries.

    The start of the riots was down to an industrial dispute at a plastic flower manufacturer based at the San Po Kong Factory Estate in Kowloon. The factory was owned by a local industrialist called Duncan Tong (唐鼎康). Tong had a number of manufacturing businesses including the Playart die cast car brand which competed with Hot Wheels and is still popular with collectors.

    On May 6, picketing workers clashed with members of the management. It got sufficiently violent that the riot police were called. When the police arrived they were pelted with cans and glass bottles by picketing workers and their peers in other neighbouring factory units. The police arrested 21 demonstrators who were represented by the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (HKFTU). The HKFTU is a Beijing-aligned group of trade unions.

    Many more were injured in the violence. Local union officials went to the police stations to protest the arrests and ended up being arrested themselves.

    Leftist protestors with strong sympathies towards Beijing protested in solidarity with the arrested workers the following day.

    Over 100 protestors were arrested and a curfew was imposed by the authorities. This then sparked a low level insurgency. Over 1,100 bombs were planted, 51 people were killed, over 800 people were injured. Almost 5,000 people were arrested and over 1,900 of them were successfully prosecuted. It was only the intervention of the Chinese premier who finally put an end to the violence in December that year.

    Business leaders like Li Ka-shing and Harilela invested in property when the 1967 riots depressed prices. They then went on to replace British taipans as the main drivers of Hong Kong commerce.

    The takeaway is that chaos has consistently provided opportunities for businesses with enough capital to take advantage of them. But what’s needed more than money is the eye for opportunity.

    What does the solution for a brand winter look like?

    In the case of Hong Kong, if we look at FMCG brands, there has never been a better time to build a local brand. Advertising inventory in out of home spaces or on streaming media are going to be cheaper due to the lack of demand.

    Both ‘yellow and blue’ orientated media offer opportunities if handled in an even handed way. Investing during the contra-cycle in brand offers businesses an opportunity to capture long term profits rather than short term sales.

    More information

    There didn’t seem to be anything on the TBWA Hong Kong website, but they had this post on their Facebook page.

    TBWA HK offers service pack to help brands through the financial winter | Campaign Asia

  • Eric Vietnam Sadler + more things

    Eric ‘Vietnam’ Sadler interview – Folio Weekly – rare interview with Eric ‘Vietnam’ Sadler of the Bomb Squad production team

    Public Enemy Papercraft
    Public Enemy (without Eric ‘Vietnam’ Sadlerpaper craft figures via csalinas86

    Venture capital investors should harpoon more whales | Financial Times – hard versus soft innovation – soft innovation is winning the money. More on innovation here.

    Gen Z brand advisors – JWT Intelligence – because they are over millennials

    和 Virgil 一同「压轴登场」的 Arc’Teryx,是怎样的户外品牌? – Chinese fashion show people trying to work out why Virgil Aboha wore Arc’Teryx goretex shell. Interesting that they don’t go to the obvious answer – technical outdoor wear is streetwear

    Wristwatches (手表) | Mao Era in Objects – interesting read and gives a lot of food for thought on brand and perceived luxury products in the Chinese market

    reut.rs | Trump executive order to clampdown on counterfeit and pirate goods sold at e-commerce – interesting as Amazon and eBay sure to suffer

    FM音源伝説 | FM音源を愛するすべての人へ – cool game chip based synthesizers

    Study: Men who own luxury cars are often jerkswhat types of people own these cars. Sure enough, he found that less cooperative, less kind, and less considerate men often drive high-status cars. “The same traits also explain why such people break traffic regulations more frequently than others,” says Lönnqvist. He found no connection between female self-centeredness and luxury cars. Before you start flashing the bird at passing luxury vehicles, know that not all classy car owners suck. In fact, some are quite dependable: The study also found that conscientious men and women—people who are organized, ambitious, respectable, and often high-performing—are also frequent owners of high-status cars, which Lönnqvist says likely reflects an appreciation for quality and an urge to present a self-image of classy reliability. – a bit more nuance to this than the title suggests

    The rapid rise of ‘Buy now, pay later’ – BBC News – this isn’t new, its the Littlewoods catalogue model all over again wearing digital clothes

    Bank of England drops productivity optimism and lowers expectations | Financial Times – not terribly surprising

    ハタプロ – way too cute robot Google Home type device hybrid

    Markera kraftigare mot Kinas försök att påverka pressfriheten | :UtgivarnaUtgivarna urges to mark more strongly against China‘s attempts to influence the freedom of the press. Swedish media pushes back against Chinese government and including the local ambassador and United Front cadre

    Apple Hires Key Netflix Engineer in Bid to Boost Subscription Services – WSJRuslan Meshenberg, who helped build out Netflix’s platform and was involved in key initiatives to create a speedier, more consistent service for viewers, joined Apple’s internet-services organization this week

    A new year marks a new phase of Hong Kong protests | Financial Timessome are calling on taxpayers to pay more. The aim of the so-called “$1 more” campaign is to cripple the tax authorities’ operations by forcing them to handle possibly millions of rebate payments, tying them up in bureaucracy and bringing the system to a grinding halt

    ‘Get Ready for Brexit’ was a £46m flop – so get ready for ‘Ready to Trade’ | MAA – this must be embarrassing for Engine Group

    Apple TV+ ‘Immaterial’ to Services Revenue Amid One-Year Free Deal – Variety – loss leader

    Apple FQ1 20 – Big battery. – Radio Free Mobile – back to basics with battery life being the key USP

  • Building wide for brands + more

    IPA | The Wide and the Narrow of itBuilding Wide, I propose, is driving a brand’s meaning and equity through the power of shared and collective cultural moments.  Building ‘Narrow’ is defined as creating meaning and equity through the power of individual and personal customer experience.  Both of these definitions can impact how a brand grows in the short term as well as the long term. Yet by including this new dimension to how a marketer can manage and grow their brands, it forces us to consider a more complete picture of how brands grow in the 21st century. – thoughts on building wide:

    • Building wide is representative of marketings refocus on the role of culture and brands
    • Collective cultural moments used to exist all the time with common touchpoint like watching two channels on TV and no internet
    • Building wide looks to circumvent the bubbles that have built up thanks to online and marketed media.
    • If building wide sounds old in theory and practice it is. It is old wine in a new bottle. But the new building wide bottle is needed for marketers who don’t know how to market. It isn’t there fault, but the way digital in particular has evolved
    • Digital as an architecture isn’t building wide but narrow
    • From a cultural perspective digital negated geography, which is one of the challenges of building wide when placed in a conventional marketing and selling organisation structure
    • Building wide assumes polarisation can be bridged by brands
    • Building wide is taking a sticking plaster to open heart surgery

    Can Nuclear Power Offer a Way Out of the Climate Crisis? – DER SPIEGEL – yes, but will it be politically expedient is a more pertinent question

    Karl Rove on Donald Trump: “We Will Lose” – DER SPIEGEL – Rove posits that populism isn’t sustainable long term. However leaders like Putin might beg to differ

    Hypercritical: Top Gun – actually a short article on good copywriting

    Beekeeper in China strikes gold with live-streaming – Inkstone – romanticisation of rural life by city dwellers is key to the success in the agri-DTC business farmers are using to reach markets that they otherwise couldn’t engage with

    Generation Putin: how young Russians view the only leader they’ve ever known | Financial TimesBy most calculations, Russia’s economy shrank by 60 per cent between 1991 and 1999, a bigger contraction than during the second world war. Under then president Boris Yeltsin, the country fell into a national depression, cast as the loser in the cold war and no longer the powerful global actor it had believed itself to be – Putin’s sales pitch is economic and social stability

    Should America’s GDP data include drug dealing? | Financial TimesOn a macro level, the implications of this experimental exercise are not earth-shattering: if illegal activities were included, it seems total GDP would be about 1 per cent bigger. Judging from Eurostat figures, this suggests that the illegal sector is slightly larger in the US than in some European countries, but not by that much – also highlights law enforcement inflation of seizure values for publicity and prosecution purposes

    Hu Era > Xi Era? | China Econ Talk – yep Premier Hu did a better job

    From a ‘Race to AI’ to a ‘Race to AI Regulation’ – Regulatory Competition for Artificial Intelligence by Nathalie A. Smuha :: SSRN – PDF

    Robotics and automation in the city: a research agenda: Urban Geography: Vol 0, No 0cities are becoming experimental sites for new forms of robotic and automation technologies applied across a wide variety of sectors in multiple areas of economic and social life. As these innovations leave the laboratory and factory, this paper analyzes how robotics and automation systems are being layered upon existing urban digital networks, extending the capabilities and capacities of human agency and infrastructure networks, and reshaping the city and citizen’s everyday experiences. To date, most work in this field has been speculative and isolated in nature. We set out a research agenda that goes beyond analysis of discrete applications and effects, to investigate how robotics and automation connect across urban domains and the implications for differential urban geographies, the selective enhancement of individuals and collective management of infrastructures, the socio-spatial sorting of cities and the potential for responsible urban innovation

    When Platform Capitalism Meets Petty Capitalism in China: Alibaba and an Integrated Approach to Platformization | Zhang | International Journal of CommunicationCombining platform studies with insights from research on petty capitalism and the political economy of the Chinese Internet, this article takes an integrated approach to analyze key moments in the historical evolution of the Chinese e-commerce monopoly Alibaba since 1999. It argues for a dynamic model of technological and cultural transformations that treats platformization as a set of historically and culturally specific processes and relations constituted by constantly shifting and interacting forces. It finds that in the early days, Alibaba deployed platform mechanisms of participation and commodification to position itself as a democratic and participatory platform contra the deficient infrastructure of the state, while relying on foreign venture capital to keep the tensions of commodification at bay to prioritize market expansion. After Alibaba had achieved monopoly after the 2008 global crisis, it has formed more symbiotic relations with the state, ramping up mechanisms of datafication, selection, and commodification to more effectively extract the surplus value generated through the labor of platform-based petty capitalists

    Graphic Novels Are Comic Books, But Gentrifiedgraphic novels are comic books — or, more precisely, ‘what comics have become in an age of gentrification. This formerly popular medium now wins Pulitzer Prizes and American Book Awards, is exhibited at the Museum of Modern Art in New York, and adapted into arthouse films that include the animated Persepolis and the Palme d’Or winner Blue Is the Warmest Color. As the example of the graphic novel shows, gentrification has become increasingly entwined with culture as it continues to spread across urban neighborhoods and seeps into rural enclaves. When the sociologist Ruth Glass coined the term “gentrification” in 1964, she was describing how Victorian properties that served as boarding houses for the poor were being converted into representative apartments for London’s bourgeoisie. Today, we are as likely to associate it with the yoga studios and specialty coffee shops now transforming areas which were long home to large working-class and ethnic-minority populations – I don’t agree with a lot of the assertions in this

    National Sovereignty, European Integration and Domination in the Eurozone | European Review | Cambridge Corethe relationship between national sovereignty and the ability to exercise independent economic policy within the EMU, as well as re-examine the development of this relationship regarding the process of European integration

    The political economy of collective memories: Evidence from Russian politics – ScienceDirectHow do political elites reactivate salient collective memories to entrench their power? We study this question examining a government-led recollection campaign of the traumatic transition the Russian population experienced during the 1990s, starting with the year 2003. Using detailed data from national-level TV and radio as well as a text analysis of 3832 regional and local newspapers, we estimate a higher electoral support for the government, and a lower support for the liberal political opposition, in regions that suffered more during the transition period, once negative memories are recalled on state-controlled media – would also explain the popularity of the Conservatives in areas economically disemboweled by deindustrialisation during the Margaret Thatcher led government of the 1980s

    The New Empirics of Industrial Policy | SpringerLinkNations have and will continue to shape their economies through industrial policy. Nevertheless, the empirical literature on these interventions is thin, dwarfed by the attention industrial policies receive from policymakers across the world. In this paper, I discuss the difficulties of empirically studying industrial policy and review how new econometric work is confronting these issues. Through careful research design and attention to institutional detail, I argue that emergent studies are rapidly expanding what we know—and updating what we thought we knew—about these policies

    Of New Technologies and Old Laws: Do We Need a Right to Violate the Law? | SpringerLink – I disagree with the premise of this. In reality it depends on whether as a tech bro how much you believe the BS of Aryn Rand. Just because technology can break the law doesn’t mean that it should

    Enter the WhatsApper: Reinventing digital activism at the time of chat apps | Milan | First Mondayhow the appropriation of chat apps by social actors is redesigning digital activism and political participation today. To this end, we look at the case of #Unidos Contra o Golpe (United Against the Coup), a WhatsApp “private group” which emerged in 2016 in Florianópolis, Brazil, to oppose the controversial impeachment of the then-president Dilma Rousseff. We argue that a new type of political activist is emerging within and alongside with contemporary movements: the WhatsApper, an individual who uses the chat app intensely to serve her political agenda, leveraging its affordances for political participation. We explore WhatsApp as a discursive opportunity structure and investigate the emergence of a repertoire specific to chat apps. We show how recurrent interaction in the app results into an all-purpose, identity-like sense of connectedness binding social actors together. Diffuse leadership and experimental pluralism emerge as the bare organizing principles of these groups. The paper is based on a qualitative analysis of group interactions and conversations, complemented by semi-structured interviews with group members. It shows how WhatsApp is more than a messaging app for “hanging out” with like-minded people and has come to constitute a key platform for digital activism, in particular in the Global South

    The changing face of technology adoption – Oxford Education Blog – technology has become so ubiquitous as to render the distinction meaningless the distinction between digital natives and digital immigrants

    Elsa B. Kania on Artificial Intelligence and Great Power Competition – The Diplomat – I can also recommend Ms Kania’s white papers. She’s one of the few policy wonks that’s thought about technology competition through a state power lens without shrill alarmism. AI Security and Stability Among the Great Powers | Andrew Imbrie & Elsa B. Kania for CSETIncreasingly, U.S., Chinese, and Russian leaders recognize AI as a strategic technology that could become a critical determinant of future national competitiveness.1 AI/ML may be poised to transform not only our economies and societies, but also the character of conflict.2 The military applications of these technologies have generated particular concerns and exuberant expectations, including predictions that the advent of AI in military affairs could change the very nature of warfare.3 Undeniably, AI has become a new focus of competition among great powers,4 with the potential to disrupt the military balance and undermine deterrence (PDF)

    ChinaEconTalk Inaugural Issue: Huawei Hunted – interesting translation of article from Beijing Cultural Review that provides a comprehensive, if distorted view of the challenges facing Huawei. – Disclosure: I’ve previously had Huawei as a client twice, I have friends that work there but from a corporate culture point of view they’re a bag of messianic douchebags with mediocre software quality control

    China’s Secret Weapon Abroad: Tourists | The Nation – to be fair, Chinese tourists seeing other Chinese people living the good unstressed life and having freedoms they don’t have at home like voting might be a dangerous idea for the CCP. Though I am sure they do try and weaponise the economics, looking at Taiwan’s tourist numbers its a weak weapon

    The strange case of Paul Zimmer, the influencer who came back as a different person – I get him wanting to reinvent himself but he burned to many people to get away with it

    Awash in Disinformation Before Vote, Taiwan Points Finger at China – The New York TimesAt first glance, the bespectacled YouTuber railing against Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, just seems like a concerned citizen making an appeal to his fellow Taiwanese. He speaks Taiwanese-accented Mandarin, with the occasional phrase in Taiwanese dialect. His captions are written with the traditional Chinese characters used in Taiwan, not the simplified ones used in China. With outrage in his voice, he accuses Ms. Tsai of selling out “our beloved land of Taiwan” to Japan and the United States. The man, Zhang Xida, does not say in his videos whom he works for. But other websites and videos make it clear: He is a host for China National Radio, the Beijing-run broadcaster. – all this makes President Tsai’s win even more remarkable

    台灣事實查核中心 | Taiwan FactCheck Center – designed to tackle Chinese infiltration. This was backed up by government legislation – Taiwan Passes Anti-Infiltration Act Ahead of Election Amid Opposition Protests – The Diplomat 

    Rising to the China challenge | Kings College London – this about 20 years too late for the UK

    China announces new crackdown on religious freedom | Catholic Herald – and the Vatican has cosied up to them like the Nazis before

    “Patient Zero”: The Philippines Offers A Preview Of The Disinformation Tactics The US Could See In 2020Three years after Duterte’s 2016 campaign rode a wave of false stories, paid trolling, and the resulting Facebook engagement to victory, opposition candidates who once lambasted the president and his legions of digital disinformation agents have adopted some of the same tactics. The result is a political environment even more polluted by trolling, fake accounts, impostor news brands, and information operations, according to a new study. Alarmingly, this uptick occurred in spite of Facebook investing in third-party fact-checking and acting to remove pages and accounts that violated its policies — including the takedown of a network belonging to a key Duterte social media adviser.

    Has the DTC model peaked? | Mobile Dev Memoaudience overlap conflicts, upward pressure on CPMs for the most prized audience segments, the diminished power of over-used conversion events, etc. — are becoming ever more common grievances for DTC companies, it seems likely that growth for the DTC model may have peaked

    bellingcat – Guide To Using Reverse Image Search For Investigations – bellingcat – it is impressive how far Yandex are ahead of Google in this

    How to measure ad response with young audiences | WARC“Children in this age group have some knowledge of advertising; they recognize the persuasive intent of commercials and are skeptical of the truthfulness of advertising claims,” – interesting article

    ‘China’s Facebook’ launches its Hail Mary comeback attempt – Inkstone – Renren looks to become relevant again for Chinese netizens

    The Future of America’s Contest with China | The New YorkerTo a degree still difficult for outsiders to absorb, China is preparing to shape the twenty-first century, much as the U.S. shaped the twentieth. Its government is deciding which features of the global status quo to preserve and which to reject, not only in business, culture, and politics but also in such basic values as human rights, free speech, and privacy. In the lead-up to the anniversary, the government demonstrated its capacity for social surveillance. At the Beijing University of Technology, where students trained to march in the parade, the administration extracted data from I.D. cards to see who ate what in the dining hall, and then delivered targeted guidance for a healthy diet. In the final weeks, authorities narrowed the Internet connection to the outside world, secreted dissidents out of town, and banned the flying of drones, kites, and pet pigeon – basically things are going to go really dark really fast; if the Chinese Communist Party continues to be given free rein

    A Look Back at the Top Apps and Games of the Decade | AppAnnie – guessing WeChat is preloaded on a lot of phones in China???

    Axon v. Federal Trade Commission Media & Investor Briefing Page | Axon – Axon are famous for the Taser and law enforcement body cams. The FTC should be doing this to Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon etc

    ‘The planning process has gone out the window’: Confessions of an agency exec – Digiday – this!

    UK investigates if cyberattack led to stock exchange outage | EngadgetGCHQ intelligence agency is investigating the possibility that the failure may have been due to a cyberattack. It’s reportedly taking a close look at the associated code, including time stamps, to determine if there was any suspicious activity. The exchange was in the middle of updating its systems when the outage happened, and there’s a fear this left systems open to attack – why now?

    2019 Letter | Dan Wang – China’s technology foundations are fragile, which the trade war has made evident. Second, over the longer term, I expect that China will stiffen those foundations and develop firms capable of pushing forward the technological frontier

    What sank Port of Hong Kong’s claim to world’s shipping crown? | South China Morning Post – because China and western companies preferring to transship through Singapore instead

    Nostalgia and eclecticism: A sociologist’s view on social media’s cultural impact | Advertising | Campaign Asiasocial media is breaking apart the bonds of popular culture through which brands communicate with consumers.Online (even before social) helped subcultures breakout and thrive creating massively parallel culture rather than popular culture per se. And thats one of the things that building wide is trying to address.

    Chrome OS has stalled out | Android Police – interesting reflection on cloud and internet performance

    1,500 scientists lift the lid on reproducibility : Nature News & Comment – a huge problem with peer review of results

    Luxury 2030: What luxury brands need to start doing now | Marketing | Campaign AsiaChinese consumers have become the most important worldwide—now accounting for 40% of the entire luxury market. They have a different profile than Western consumers: They’re generally much younger (25-30 is the sweet spot), highly-educated and sophisticated, have high expectations, and are digitally native. But this doesn’t mean stores are obsolete to them. In fact, the opposite is true. But a store can’t just be a transaction place anymore. It has to create a unique experience to have relevance with young consumers.

  • Truth decay

    Truth decay was a concept that I came across when reading Monocle’s Forecast issue.

    Donald Trump
    President Donald Trump

    Michael D Rich is the head of the The RAND Corporation – a not-for-profit think tank. When he was interviewed and described as being preoccupied with ‘truth decay’. Truth decay occurs when society and the body politic can’t even agree on basic facts.

    • Increasing disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of facts and data
    • A blurring of the line between opinion and fact
    • The increasing relative volume and resulting influence of opinion and personal experience over fact
    • Declining trust in formerly respected sources of facts

    Truth decay. One point that we’ve made over and over again is that no important problem can be solved in the US within the span of just a four-year presidency or a two-year Congress. And the way those problems have been surmounted in the past is consensus and compromise. That’s impossible if two sides can’t agree on the basic facts.

    Thought Leaders – The Forecast 2020 Monocle magazine

    All of this sounds like the rhetoric used to describe Vladislav Surkov and his work for the Russian government, or Dominic Cummings and Cambridge Analytica. The idea is that language and truth no longer mean anything. There is no right, there is no left, there is no ideology except the other group and the desire for power.

    The RAND Corporation is America’s foremost think tank. It spun out of Douglas Aircraft Corporation. From national security it expanded to social and economic areas. It now has its own grad school and nine different research facilities. It’s website is a good source of resources across a range of areas.

  • Volkswagen Beatle fairwell & other things this week

    Volkswagen Beatle

    Volkswagen Beatle – after seven decades Volkswagen is finally saying goodbye to its most iconic vehicle. It seems the Beatle won’t make it into the electric future of Volkswagen.

    Visual Futurist – Syd Mead

    We lost visual futurist Syd Mead at the end of 2019. Mead was best known now as the stylist on Blade Runner, but had worked for a number of US corporates including Ford and US Steel. He’d also done work for NASA.

    Even if you don’t know Mead, you’ve likely seen his work. Or the stuff influenced by his work.

    My first reaction on hearing the news is that fate is cruel. Mead has left us, but in his place we have Elon Musk.

    Animal thoughts

    Ze Frank for Audible on animals thoughts for Christmas. Animal thoughts for Christmas reminds you of how alien our rituals must seem to our pets. The random associations that they will likely form with things like tinsel. The cat going on about tree torture is the best part of it. But the inner trips of cats on cat nip comes a close second.

    Connected restaurant

    Three Ireland have executed on an idea I investigated back in 2005 for Motorola. Back then it was a lot harder to get the bandwidth and screens to do it. We were also thinking on a bigger scale, connecting Trafalgar Square with public spaces around the world. Three Ireland made the venue more intimate. It was a lovely to see the creative wrapper that Three Ireland put around it that resonates with Irish households around the world.

    Sesame Street

    Sesame Street characters do impressions of each other. I know that some characters might be voiced by the same actors and wonder if that what was going on here. I am constantly amazed by the timelessness of the Sesame Street franchise.