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  • Boutique e-tailers

    The luxury sector is undergoing a transformation, and nowhere is that more apparent than in the world of boutique e-tailers. I am of a generation that grew up with boutiques, carefully curated fashion looks from multiple brands.

    Farfetch_8
    TAKA@P.P.R.S

    Exclusive

    As a child, my Mam would get me jumpers as I grew up from different small stores like this. To this day, the ultimate compliment she would give any item of clothing was that it was ‘exclusive’.

    As I started buying my own clothes I pivoted between sports shops for my footwear, Ellis Brigham for layers, Caran D’Ache – a menswear boutique in Birkenhead at the time for jeans and ‘going out’ clothing. (Having known the owner/manager quite well, I suspect that the store was named after the Swiss writing instrument company, rather than the pseudonym of French satirist Emmanuel Poiré). This was where I got my first down jacket (by Naf Naf), Oshkosh B’gosh dungarees and Champion sweatshirts. At the time Ellis Brigham was a sea of Polartec and Gore-tex with no down jackets in sight.

    I started venturing further afield and went to Quiggins in Liverpool, Affleck’s Palace in Manchester and what’s now the Victoria Quarter in Leeds. I’d also started coming down to London with friends to find brands I couldn’t get at home.

    Famous high-end boutiques like Browns built a reputation for championing up and coming womenswear designers like Hussein Chalayan and Alexander McQueen. They also helped the likes of Ralph Lauren, Jil Sander and Calvin Klein start seeing in London. At their best boutiques moved culture as curators and taste makers. I got my love of American workwear from Caran D’Ache and Japanese streetwear from the late lamented Hideout which was just off Golden Square.

    Department stores were the first aggregators of boutiques with a mix of single brand and multi-brand concessions under one roof. Brands like Selfridges, Harvey Nichols, Isetan, Lane Crawford, Mitsukoshi, Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue, SEIBU and Shinsegae.

    These established businesses have their place, indeed LVMH owns a number of selective retail businesses like DFS (often known as T Galleria), Le Bonne Marché and Starboard Cruises. So multi-brand distribution has a place in the luxury retail mix. Over time the premium department store brands and LVMH’s select retail brand would both have boutique e-tailers within their brands providing an omni-channel experience.

    In the run up to COVID, multi-brand retail counted for 57 percent of luxury sales, management consultancy Bain expect this to decline to 36 percent of luxury sales by 2030.

    Online

    Online continues to disrupt retailing over a quarter century after it landed. The first casualties were book stores and music stores. Twenty years ago, one of the most enjoyable activities that I did in my spare time was rifling through record store shelves, digging for surprising or elusive vinyl records, CDs and DVDs.

    Some of the places were I did this are long gone, like Tower Records in Piccadilly Circus. On the flipside, new businesses sprang up to be online first, or online only. Amazon started as a book store and eventually became the modern-day equivalent of the Sears Roebuck catalogue.

    Luxury was no exception and a variety of dedicated boutique e-tailers sprang up:

    • Matches
    • MyTheresa
    • Net-a-Porter
    • YOOX
    • Farfetch

    In the same way that mobile operators were the key determinators of whether mobile phone shops were successful, luxury brands had the whip hand over multi-brand boutiques. Phones4U died when its relationships with EE and Vodafone came to an end. The FT article The implosion in luxury ecommerce implied a similar pivotal moment between Farfetch and Kering, but with Farfetch managing to sell itself to Korean e-tailing business Coupang instead of going into administration.

    One brand / one store

    Luxury brands have looked to gain more control over their customer experience and get closer to the customer overall. This has seen many brands open single brand stores. Up until the 1980s, Louis Vuitton sold mostly through department stores, now it’s mostly through its own brand channels. Some brands like Audemars Piaget, now only sell through their own single brand showrooms.

    The big name department stores continued to hold a position in the marketplace due to their own brand power, even while smaller mid-market stores in provincial cities folded.

    Over time, brands extended their shop front into the online sphere. This was done once two things were able to happen:

    • An all-up online and offline view of a given customer and CRM systems allowed this to happen. This wasn’t for efficiency reasons to go online only, but to provide an omnichannel service to match customer’s omni-channel lifestyles.
    • Getting this all-up view will also help with future EU legislation moving towards a circular economy.
    • The ability to provide a high level delivery experience for online purchases. This mattered less with fragrances than it did with watches and handbags. High security logistics providers like Ferrari were able to provide this to the main luxury brands.

    One small chink of hope for multi-brand stores is that single brand stores may be forced to either change business practices, or insulate themselves from legal action via authorised dealerships. A court case brought by two women against Hermés in the US claims that having to buy other products to get a crack at purchasing a Birkin bag is a violation of antitrust laws.

    The obligation to buy other products first, is what the women claim is an ‘illegal tying arrangement’ which is why Hermés might be in violation of antitrust laws. Other brand who have authorised dealers rather than their own showrooms are less likely to be at risk.

    Compressed middle-class

    One of the first things that I learned when doing LVMH’s INSIDE LVMH certificate was that the bulk of luxury purchases are made by the middle classes.

    Robert Gordon’s Rise and Decline of American Growth outlined how the middle classes in America (but also many other western countries). Income inequality, automation and globalisation drove a stagnation and decline in middle class numbers, even as the number wealthy increased.

    Globalisation elevated a new middle class in Asian countries like Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand. Energy drove middle class growth in the countries surrounding the Persian gulf and Nigeria. Louis Vuitton opened their first show rooms in the US in 1914, in Japan in 1978 (though department stores had been selling their products for years). The first Korean shop opened in 1984 and China eight years later.

    Over the past few decades this was compensated by new middle classes growing. They don’t necessarily have the earning power of a middle class westerner, but the purchasing power level may vary considerably. So a middle class consumer in a country like Thailand, Malaysia or Singapore might have more disposable income than someone in the UK.

    Japan’s middle class quickly reached stagnation due to the lost decades of economic growth after their 1989 asset bubble. Korea has gone through a similar challenge, it has seen raised consumption, but recently this is driven by household debt rather than prosperity.

    China

    Quantity is a quality of its own, which is a reason why Chinese consumers have been so important to luxury brands since the early 2000s when China joined the WTO and its economy took off. Once there was even a small growth in middle class numbers that represented a big increase in global luxury sector sales. The decline in economic growth due to the property sector bubble has dampened luxury sales to China. It is not only about the decline in ability to purchase, but also the decline in being seen to purchase western luxury goods.

    This less conscious consumption started early on during the Xi administration’s desire to combat corruption and aspire to a more equal society. Gifting declined. Economic decline accelerated this Chinese macro-trend.

    COVID and after

    COVID changed consumption. Money that would have previously been spent on experiences such as restaurant meals or travel transferred into things. Both single brands and boutique e-tailers got a lift in this environment. But a wider economic effect is still working its way through the economy. This effect is known as the bullwhip or Forrester Effect.

    This resulted in a number of economic distortions:

    1. Partial shutdown – Consumers no longer went to work or high traffic retail hotspots. Non-essential workers didn’t go to work. Logistics systems buckled under the weight of packages and luxury businesses diverted production to support medical needs such as LVMH’s perfumes businesses making hand sanitiser.
    2. Unusual increase in demand – Home working drove an increase in demand from media consumption and home improvement to buying more stuff from all that money they saved from not going out.
    3. Supply chain disruption – Air cargo prioritised medical supplies while existing stock sat in empty shops.

    All of this disruption which drove inflation, this reduced demand as consumers had less to spend.

    Above inflation price bumps for luxury goods

    Luxury brands focused on their inflation proof ultra-high net worth customer base and raised prices to compensate for the reduction in sales volume. The fight for that reduced volume pitched multi-brand boutique e-tailers against their suppliers and the results weren’t pretty.

    Boutique e-tailers are going to the wall, or consolidating to weather the fiscal storm until such time as middle class consumers can start spending aspirationally again.

    Some of these businesses can’t be saved. Matchesfashion, which was bought out by Frasers Group didn’t have much chance.

    Financial decline of Matchesfashion

    You can find similar posts here.

    More information

    The implosion in luxury ecommerce | FT

    Case Study | Selling Luxury to the 1% | BoF

    Matchesfashion axes half its staff after going into administration | FT

    Harvey Nichols staff face redundancies as it eyes return to profitability – Retail Gazette

    LVMH-Backed Luxury Watch Site Hodinkee Cuts a Fifth of Jobs – Bloomberg

    Who Gets to Buy a Birkin Bag? | BoF

    The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World) by Robert J. Gordon

    Canada Goose is cutting 17% of its corporate staff | Quartz

    What’s up with 10-year-old kids in Sephora? Why the question itself is driving controversy | CBC News

    US Luxury Purchases Fell 15 Percent in February, According to Citi Credit Card Data | BoF

    Why Frasers Group Shuttered Matchesfashion | BoF

  • Campaign a-list questions

    Campaign recently published their a-list questions, go and check them out. Campaign is the default trade journal of the advertising industry, though you would be surprised how many agencies don’t have a subscription. I featured in a number these kind of features earlier in my career in Campaign sister publications and rivals. I was often pulled in because friends had suggested me.

    Here’s my take on the Campaign a-list questions below. It is a mix of the frivolous and the serious.

    Define your past year in three words.

    Eventful, emotional, grateful.

    • Eventful: a lot of projects happened and a number of projects didn’t happen at a very late stage, I lost a couple of good friends – one of whom to complications related to lupus.
    • Emotional: a number of highs and lows throughout the year.
    • Grateful: for the friends that I have made, most of whom have been professional connections, some long-standing.

    What brand will you be unable to live without in 2024?

    ‘Unable live without’ is a very first world problem related question. My workflow depends on the Apple eco-system. I use a MacBook Pro, a brace of vintage Apple Cinema displays and an iPhone. Brands that I am particularly appreciative of include HailMary magazine, Lipton Hong Kong café-style milk tea and Amazon Fresh online grocery shopping.

    Who or what lights up your life?

    • Friends and family.
    • Intellectually-challenging work.
    • Culture: I love museum exhibitions, galleries and arthouse cinema.
    • Reading.
    • Travel.
    • Music and my hi-fi.
    • Good coffee and baked goods.

    You can bring back a TV show from the past – which one?

    Maybe The Wire, a remake of John LeCarre’s Smiley books (huge fan of the BBC adaptations and the Tomas Alfredson film) or a new season of the Korean drama Stranger? I let my Netflix subscription lapse recently as I wasn’t watching that much on it and Netflix moved their payment system outside the Apple eco-system. Instead I have been buying the odd Blu-Ray or DVD here and there. Recent purchases included:

    It’s 2034 and AI is in charge. What are you pleased to see?

    Thoughtfully designed co-operative tools based on locally run apps using AI techniques rather than climate-unfriendly data centres. I hope that AI will be adapted to make workflow better so that we can do more with less drudgery.

    If you were a TikTok star, what audience would you serve?

    I have played with various AI tools. TikTok has lots of tightly-held opinions, but a dearth of quality information sources. I could see a niche for a channel that uses a virtual presenter to delivery high quality news analysis or education on the principles of a given subject, complete with links to high quality sources so that the viewers could educate themselves further.

    Cats or dogs?

    I grew up with dogs. We had a yellow labrador through my formative years to age 11 or so. We’d moved to a different neighbourhood and the new neighbours threw a chicken carcass over the fence and that killed him.

    Young Ged rollin' with the big 'dawg

    Later on my parents had a couple of Jack Russell terriers. I spent time on the family farm where my Mam grew up and befriended the working dogs there that were from the collie family. Before my time, the farm also had a couple of cats to keep down the vermin population, at least one of which my Mam doted on as a child and still talks about.

    I also spent time with turkeys, hens, sheep, a pig, a pony, a donkey and numerous cattle. At the moment I wouldn’t have either a cat or a dog as a pet, see work/life balance question below.

    What is the one bit of work advice you use the most?

    In strategy, I have been finding with recent projects I have had to invoke Twyman’s law: “Any figure that looks interesting or different is usually wrong”.

    What is your work/life balance secret?

    I admit, I don’t succeed in achieving work life balance. Work tends to win out. Things tend to go high-speed or nothing. Trying to take out blocks of me time for self-care after a project, is the closest I get to it.

    What is the first thing you do to tackle a business problem?

    Listen carefully.

    You are hiring the person who will one day have your job – what do they need to know?

    The value of hard work and learning. I would prefer to hire for ‘heart’, work ethic and curiosity. They need to find their own path or journey, that works for them.

    How would your answers to the Campaign a-list questions look like?

  • Pharma jargon

    I started my career off working on technology clients who were bad for having their own language but pharma jargon takes things to a new level of complexity. I thought I would write a bluffers guide to make other peoples lives easier.

    Berts Drugstore
    samswitzer

    Here’s some of the examples of pharma jargon that came to mind that aren’t immediately apparent to marketers coming in from other disciplines.

    ABPI – Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry is the trade association for companies in the UK producing prescription medicines. It has a code that members should adhere to. See also PhRMA.

    Adherence – takes treatment as directed.

    Aggregated – usually in terms of electronic medical records (see EMR below), the most in-depth record of information about a patient’s historical set of conditions, treatments and tests for those conditions and much more.

    AE – Adverse event. When you get a reaction from a medicine that is negative. It could be soreness from an injection, or an upset stomach right the way through to death. Pharma companies have time-bounded compliance issues related to AEs. This was one of the reasons why they had been slow to use social media in the past.

    Behaviour change – a lot of pharma marketing hinges on behavioural science to drive behavioural change. In a lot of sectors behavioural science usually elicits small changes that might not be worth the effort. In healthcare, it could mean saving lives, so it is leaned on much more.

    Biologics – treatments made from actual live organisms rather than synthetic chemicals (which would be called drugs).

    BLA – biologics licence application. Paperwork submitted to the FDA. Similar to NDA below.

    Building the plane as we’re flying it – building the business to scale up. Usually indicates that the company is growing the amount of people it employs and marketing function to help prepare for product launch. This can be teams in a large pharma company attached to a new drug, or a smaller research company who is looking to take a discovery to launch.

    CBER – center for biologics evaluation and research (part of FDA) does the same role for biologics as CDER does for drugs.

    CDER – center for drug evaluation and research (part of the FDA)

    Clinical endpoint – Used in trials. In the trial design there will be a measurable outcome that determines clinical success… if achieved. All trials have a primary endpoint, they may have additional secondary endpoints. Think of endpoints as medical trial objectives.

    Clinical studies – research conducted to understand a treatment’s safety and efficacy,

    CME – continual medical education – used interchangeably with CPD – continual professional development. Online modules or events that allow HCPs to keep up to date with the latest developments. Useful from a marketing point-of-view to reduce barriers to prescribe through upskilling, or reframing the way a condition is used to favour one product over another.

    Co-insurance – the amount the patient has to pay on private healthcare.

    Co-morbidity – having more than one medical condition or disease at the same time. For instance, one of the reasons why obesity has become such a public health issue is down to the higher incidence of co-morbidity that can occur including cancer, diabetes, heart disease, fatty liver disease to name but a few.

    Co-pay – see co-insurance.

    CRO – contract research organisation – a company that helps move a drug to commercialisation a new drug or device from its conception to legal marketing approval. It would be analogous in a lot of other industries to IT outsourcing in terms of its role in a business value chain.

    CVA – see eDetail

    DTC – direct to consumer. With certain product categories there has been a trend to prescribe via telemedicine consultation with a qualified HCP and then the product can be sent direct to the patient.

    eDetail – an interactive presentation usually delivered using a tablet that sales reps use to discuss their client’s product (or increasingly product with a digital service attached) with healthcare professions

    EMA – European Union’s regulatory body, see FDA.

    EHR – electronic health record. Aggregated and shared across different HCPs from different organisations

    EMR – electronic medical record. Used within one medical system / one set of healthcare providers.

    EOB – explanation of benefits – the positive effects a given pharma product has for the patient. This will be expressed not only in biological terms but also impact on quality of life or improvements in standard of care enjoyed.

    Ethical pharma – branded as opposed to generic prescription products.

    FDA – Food and Drug Administration – the body that certifies whether a product is allowed to be used in the US.

    Formulary – a list of pharma products that are approved for prescribing from a finance perspective.

    GP – general practitioner – family doctor.

    Generic – a pharmaceutical product this is no longer protected by patent rights. It can be manufactured by any company. Patents protecting pharma product intellectual property rights surrounding a product run out after 14 years in the UK, but can vary in other markets.

    HCP – usually a prescriber or a gatekeeper. This can be a hospital specialist of some sort, a prescribing nurse or a prescribing pharmacist. The gatekeeper category might be wider such as specialist nurses, surgery nurses, hospital pharmacists – the rationale for reaching these people is to reduce the friction in using a product once it has been prescribed. A less common gatekeeper role is about referring a patient to a prescriber – particularly where the treatment can only be prescribed by a specialist.

    Ideopathic – as in ideopathic X disease means that the medical profession don’t know the cause.

    In-label: a use of a drug that is within its approved ‘label’ see also off-label, USPI and SmPC.

    iVA – see eDetail

    KOL – key opinion leader. Can be someone who has specialist expertise, is a prolific researcher often cited in medical journals, someone who has an active profile speaking at professional events or on social media. They may be an academic, doctor, a nurse or a pharmacist depending on the market sector, country and product.

    MHRA – Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency – a UK regulatory body that is equivalent to the EU’s EMA and the FDA in the US.

    MLR – medical, legal and regulatory. Equivalent of legal and compliance in other industries such as financial services.

    MOA – mode of action, also called mechanism of action. How a pharmaceutical product works (if known).

    MOD – mode of disease, also called mechanism of disease. What a condition does to the body, what cells it attacks or biochemical processes it interferes with.

    MSL – medical science liaison. A non-promotional specialist expert in a pharma company. The equivalent in the enterprise technology space would be a pre-sales engineering role.

    NDA – new drug application. Pharma companies like this because it extends the protected life for a drug. A classic example would be semaglutide. Initially it was marketed to treat people with diabetes. But during those trials it was found to correlate with weight loss. It then became a weight loss and management focused product as well. Each application has a patent protected time period.

    Off-label: where a doctor prescribes a medicine or treatment do do something that isn’t on its SmPC or USPI (depending which country you are in). A classic example of this at the moment is the use of Ozempic to help with weight loss and weight management. Ozempic was licensed to help with the treatment of diabetes. It is the same active ingredient, but at a different dose rate in Wegovy. Wegovy is licensed for weight loss / weight management.

    On-label: exactly the same as ‘in-label’.

    OTC – over the counter. In the UK examples would be Gaviscon or Panadol for upset stomachs and pain respectively. Both are available without a prescription.

    PAAB – Pharmaceutical Advertising Advisory Board – an American body that would be similar to the ABPI in the UK. It looks specifically at advertising practices.

    Patent cliff – intellectual property rights on drugs are protected for a period of time (which varies by market). Generally it’s between 8 – 14 years. Once this period is over, the drug can be made by anybody. When a company has a series of drugs falling out of this protected period, the company is considered to have ‘fallen’ off a patent cliff if it doesn’t have new drugs to replace the old versions.

    PAG – patient advocacy group. They advise patients, help fund research, advocate for patient standard of care.

    Patient – person with a medical condition. The end consumer of a pharma product.

    Patient advocate – a patient advocate plays multiple roles. They act as the voice of the patient with pharma companies providing insight into the patient experience. This is important in order to drive a more patient-centric approach. They may appear in the media as a spokesperson and may testify in front of regulators and legislators.

    Patient-centric – a move in marketing over the past two decades from pharma companies just thinking about getting the HCP to prescribe, to thinking about the end consumer experience. Probably one of the first things they could do is stopping using patient and try people with X instead.

    PCP – primary care provider. A family doctor or GP.

    PDUFA date – (prescription drug user fee act). Part of the FDA approval process once the application has been assessed by CBER / CDER. It’s the date that the FDA must respond to the drug approval application. There are four tracks with varying speeds to the process depending on product need etc.

    PHR – personal health record. A patient-facing record accessed through patient portals etc.

    PhRMA – Pharmaceutical Research & Manufacturers of America. Industry body that lobbies on behalf of its members. Its role and code is similar to the ABPI and its code in the UK.

    PI – prescribing information, although I have heard product information used. What dose is a product given? How often? Any adverse effects that can happen? Any groups of patients who can’t have the medicine? Any medicines or foods that the products can’t be used in combination with – like antibiotics and alcohol?

    Placebo – in this case not the moderately successful band. An inactive treatment, used in control tests for new drugs. If your new medicine doesn’t perform better than the placebo control; it’s not going to get approved for use.

    Primary care – family doctor, general practitioner or community clinic.

    Rx – prescription (which drives pharma sales).

    SmPC – summary of product characteristics, a European equivalent of the USPI. A sheet in medicine packaging covering properties, side effects, officially approved ways of using a medicine. The USPI and SmPC can be different for various reasons: a drug can be approved for different uses in different territories, or may have a different brand name. Also USPIs generally have more information.

    Submitted charges – American healthcare system speak for amount billed.

    Titrate – process of measuring and finding out the concentration of one substance is in a solution (of something else).

    Tx – treatment

    USPI – US prescribing information is a sheet that goes into every medicine box properties, side-effects and the officially approved ways of using the medicine. The US version includes details of clinical studies.

    Veeva – in the same way that Adobe has become the operating system for creative agencies, Veeva is the same thing for pharma companies. Veeva Vault PromoMats will haunt your dreams.

    Vx – vaccination

    Warning letter – as bad a news as you probably think it would be. Usually sent to pharmaceutical companies by the likes of the FDA of specific regulatory or legal violations that have happened. They have a request for action to correct the violations. This could be down to company practices, procedures or products – or a combination there-of. The company need to go back with a plan and is likely to under increased surveillance from the authorities.

  • Trends and fads

    Why trends and fads?

    Why trends and fads came about as a post, was that I was scrolling on my LinkedIn notifications on a Saturday (I know, I know I should keep my life free of this crap on the weekends.) Creative Review were talking about how trend forecasting had become rusty, but that got me thinking about did they understand the difference between trends and fads?

    A good deal of what I see described as trends are fads, which then got me wondering about how do I help people differentiate between trends and fads.

    Why has it become harder to differentiate likely trends and fads?

    I would argue that the difficulty in differentiating likely trends and fads is down to a few reasons.

    • The nature of culture has changed. It has become massively parallel in nature. This has in turn impacted trends
    • Culture has become elongated in nature.
    • The changing nature of culture means trends surface and submarine again over time.

    Mass to massively parallel.

    Culture has become massively parallel. Culture and its nature has been transformed over the last century. There were a few sub-cultures at best that mattered at a given given moment in time.

    The idea of the ‘teenager’ which was the first attempt to carve out a new generation was done in the post-war affluence of America and latterly European countries, Japan and Korea as economic development took hold. We might use different language now, but teenagers were the engines for the sale of goods and services:

    • New music
    • New spaces (gaming arcades, fast food restaurants, coffee shops, instant messaging platforms, social platforms)
    • New fashion looks (mods, rockers, greasers, ravers, emo, gorpcore etc.)

    At the time, the mass media helped facilitated the propagation of a mass culture. A few music publications, radio stations, newspapers and TV stations could make a break an artist. We can see this over time with the power of Johnny Carson, Merv Griffin or Ed Sullivan in the US, Gay Byrne and Gerry Ryan in Ireland or Top of the Pops and Pete Tong in the UK.

    Ed Sullivan introduces The Beatles.
    Paul McCartney remembering the 1964 show.

    However a combination of economic improvement and technology saw the mass media broaden with countless publications, TV channels, radio stations, websites and social channels until it is no longer ‘mass’ in nature.

    Add to this, the world got smaller. Travel while still expensive became cheaper from the 1970s and 1980s onwards allowing more people to discover culture from elsewhere. And this was despite a massive surge in the price of oil due to troubles in the Middle East. So trends and fads moved around the world. Liverpool lads brought the ideas of sports casual dress from Spanish and French department stores, Japan borrowed various parts of Americana and streetwear, hip hop went around the world.

    The connectivity from the worldwide web put this in overdrive. A world of culture opened up making things massively parallel, which allowed people to pick and choose their own cues. These choices gave us massively parallel culture and resulting trends.

    Culture has become elongated in nature.

    I have friends (and associates) in their late 50 and early 60s who DJ, surf, skateboard and do martial arts. These were people who remember club nights before house music let alone EDM, who can remember the first skate parks being built in the UK and knew of Stüssy because they were part of the original Stüssy tribe of interesting folks formed by Shawn himself.

    People who might listen to Radio 4 on occasion, but are still cooler and more culturally relevant than many teenagers. Probably more culturally relevant than their college age kids.

    This cultural elongation is something that we’re starting to see gen-z obsessed agencies. A good example of this is ZAK Agency’s Learn To Time Travel white paper. Part of it has been down to life stages happening later for each generation; or not at all.

    • Moving out on your own.
    • Settling down.
    • Having children.
    • Buying their own home.
    • Being able to afford to retire.

    Part of it is down to the world norms changing. I seldom have had to wear a shirt and tie, or suit to work. My Dad wore a tie right up until the mid-1980s to work, because that was expected of him. He wasn’t a banker, but a shipyard worker. Athletes can potentially stay in peak condition for longer, all made possible by the modern world.

    Despite what we believe about technology usage, for those who are 70 or younger, income influences tech adoption as much as age related knowledge. Giving all of us access to as much culture as we can mainline.

    Fads

    If you hear the phrase ‘TikTok trends’ that are fast-changing, it’s a clue that it’s likely to be a fad unless by some blessed miracle it sticks. In the 20th century, fads were often easier to spot and the 1970s in particular were a gold mine for the fad spotter.

    Fads appear, go large and then disappear. They are ethereal in nature, rather like most TikTok trends. The Pet Rock is a prime example with its swift rise and demise.

    Pet Rock

    Northern California-based copywriter Gary Dahl came up with the idea of a pet rock. Essentially adhesive googly eyes attached to a rounded pebble that might feel pleasing in your hand for skimming across a body of still water like a lake. Dahl’s insight came from sitting with friends in a bar and listening to complain about the challenges of pet care.

    Dahl started off his project by writing a satirical pet care manual for a rock, based on the kind of care guide a veterinarian might have for a new dog owner. This included on tips for when your rock was feeling anxious.

    The rock came with the instruction book for care, it sat in a nest of long wood shavings inside a card carrying crate with a handle on top and seven vent holes on each side.

    gary-dahl-2

    Dahl put his product into the market in August 1975. Dahl was apparently selling 10,000 rocks a day and it became a gag gift over the Christmas period with estimates on sales as between 1 million to 1.5 million genuine rocks. By February 1976, they started to need discounting. Dahl ploughed his profits into opening the Carry Nation’s bar in Los Gatos, which is still there.

    The Pet Rock was clearly a fad, yet it did inspire my junior school art teacher to get us to collect stones from a visit to the beach, stick googly eyes on them and varnish the whole lot. Some were brought home and the rest sold at the school fair. Dahl wasn’t able to patent his idea. As far as I know around 2010, someone started an abortive business replicating Dahl’s packaging design and rocks.

    Dahl built his freelance copywriting business up into an agency that produced radio and television ads for local businesses including wireless providers, technology firms and dot coms. The reason for this was that Campbell had been living in the Silicon Valley area as it grew up into what we know today. Dahl even wrote the For Dummies guide on advertising in 2001, which is still available today and is a good primer on the process. Dahl passed away in 2015.

    Trends are resurgent, surfacing and submarining over time.

    Take the idea of cocooning in our own soundscape as an example of a resurgent trend. If you go on the public transport headphones or AirPod type earphones are ubiquitous. If you go and work in an office, you will see a similar set up. Prior to the rise of the AirPods it would have more likely been Sony or Bose over-ear headphones rather than wireless AirPods.

    Back in the early 1970s, my Dad took the train down to London while listening to a collection of cassettes he’d made of his record collection. The trip was one he occasionally made for the shipyard where he worked at the time. It was a long slow train journey. We had a bulky luggable cassette player similar to the one below and he wore a pair of headphones bought in Liverpool that looked like sturdy ear protectors. The tape machine was more designed for basic portable recording such as a manager recording a memo to be typed up. They were occasionally pressed into service in a similar way to my Dad’s usage.

    Old personal stereo
    Around about the same time, luggable stereos were being made by European manufacturers including Philips and Grundig. Soon after that Japanese manufacturers like Sharp, Sony and Panasonic released their own versions which were very successful. These were cemented into culture by young Americans who valued their portability and bass response.
    Beck at Yahoo! Hack Day
    Beck at Yahoo! Hack Day with a boom box

    Boomboxes weighed a lot, Sony provided an alternative with the Walkman and eventually the Discman. These were portable cassette and CD players respectively which offered personal listening with headphones. These were briefly joined by MiniDisc players.

    Around about the time when the web started to take off, you had early MP3 players such as the Rio series of machines and the CreativeLabs Nomad. But things took off with the Apple iPod, offering a new level of personal audio freedom.

    San Fran - ipod advert & Jim

    Eventually a confluence of the smartphone as digital Swiss Army knife and BlueTooth wireless standards provided us with our current personal audio freedom.

    Cocooning is just one example. As far back as the post-war era we have seen military surplus clothing go in and out of style. Thrifting has taken a similar route with it driving the iconic grunge look of the early 1990s and the Dpop shopping of today’s young people.

    We could quite easily come up with a list of trends that never die. The annual trend reports tweaking the relative volumes on these trends over time to match economic and socio-cultural changes.

    More related content here.

  • Morizo and more things

    Morizo

    Akio ‘Morizo’ Toyoda, of the Toyoda family who made their first fortune designing automatic textile looms in the early 20th century and their second fortune as the founders of Toyota. During the week Toyoda-san is the chairman of Toyota Jidōsha kabushikigaisha. But in his spare time he liked to do circuit racing under the name Morizo. At first, the Morizo name was to keep his moonlighting racing of the radar of Toyota board. But recently it has become an asset, with Toyota and its GR performance brand creating some of the best drivers cars available.

    Toyota have started to use his natural enthusiasm for the company’s benefit. The Lexus LBX Morizo RR is currently a concept car that sees a baby Lexus LBX SUV benefit from the mechanicals of a Toyota GR Yaris.

    Although talk about this as a Morizo only concept, it feels like the company might be feeling consumers out to possibly put this into manufacturing. If they did this, it would allow the company to take advantage of the GR Yaris-only components currently made and use them more widely.

    The Criterion closet

    Criterion as a publisher of DVDs and Blu-Rays is a badge of quality. The closest equivalent in the UK would be Curzon who bought Artificial Eye a number of years ago. One of the things Criterion do is video taste-makers who are allowed to take away some of their favourite films away from the company’s stock. Here are a couple of my favourites.

    William Dafoe

    Hideo Kojima

    Watch trends

    While much watch collector videos know feel more like Bloomberg reporting on a commodity because of the rise in the secondary market, this wrap-up strikes a nice balance. Some of the factors mentioned in this review appeared in my 2023 wrap-up and here.

    Mexican street culture

    If you had uttered those words to me before this week, I would have immediately thought of saints festivals, the day of the dead and the Chicano culture that grew out of Mexican communities who emigrated to the US. But there is so much more in Mexico itself as Refinery 29 shows in this film.

    The 50 French words test

    You can imagine the brief that came down to this government department in Quebec: make more English speaking visitors and businesses come to our province. The insights being along the lines of most English speakers don’t feel confident dealing with a foreign language, so how to do demystify French.

    I don’t know who the Ministère des Relations internationales et de la Francophonie used, but they deserve every penny of their fee with this film.