Ged Carroll

Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • Google services

    When reflecting on Google services, it made me realise how much the internet has changed. Back in 2005 when I started work at Yahoo!, the internet was a very different place.  It was an exciting time, web 2.0 was a technological and philosophical step-change for online services. We had cleared our palates of the bad taste left by the silliness of the dot com implosion.

    Social networks weren’t mainstream in the way we would understand them now – though there were social networks prior to the the then nascent Facebook. Instant messaging was just starting to move on to mobile devices and were more a source of ‘presence’ information – whether someone was free or not than mobile messaging. Instant messaging on the desktop was big and everyone thought that Skype actually worked really well at the time.

    We were conscious of security, but again Skype promised privacy and security (except in China) through secure encryption.  The 800LB gorilla in the room was Google. Yahoo! had managed to survive the dot com bust and subsequent 30+% drop in online advertising revenues because of the Yahoo! Dating business. Even in a recession people still need love. By comparison, Google had been on a tear, Adwords promised marketers greater transparency where they money had gone and what action had been derived from their advertising spend. There were even some nice charts that they could cut-and-paste directly into a PowerPoint presentation.

    Google services impact was much bigger. Yahoo! had pioneered search with Jerry Yang and David Filo’s directory in the mid 1990s. You can still find an iteration of the directory at Yahoo! here. In 1999, the front page of Yahoo! still reflected that directory heritage, as you can see from this screen shot
    Yahoo! early morning of March 3, 1999
    By the time I joined Yahoo! we had a search page that looked much more like the clean design of Google’s search page. The product was comparable in performance to Google as well, it just wasn’t Google; which is what most UK web users wanted.
    Y! search late 2005
    We struggled to get media mentions for Yahoo! in comparison Google services coverage wrote itself: Google spots Jesus in Peruvian sand dune | The Register. Products like Lycos’ IQ service didn’t get the attention they deserved because if it didn’t come from Google the digerati weren’t interested.  At the time Google had 70% or so of the share market, rumours I heard at the time from colleagues were that up to 95% of searches from Yahoo!’s UK office actually used Google – which foreshadowed Google’s European dominance.

    Google’s dominance could be said to have peaked around 2006, social was starting to appear and consumers started to learn the downside of what beta meant as services started to disappear or become amalgamated into other products. Services that they wove into the fabric of their online life disappeared. Tools that helped them work became less useful as functionality was dialled back.

    I have compiled a list of Google services that have been launched and closed. I ignored US-only products. There are some specific omissions:

    • Deja News had been already shutdown by the time Google acquired the company, Google sucked the service’s Usenet archives into Google Groups
    • Google launched ‘Click-To-Call’ twice. It was closed down for the first time in 2007 and was trialled again in April 2010
    • Hello was a Picasa-based picture file transfer app similar to ‘send file’ on your favourite instant messaging platform, it was axed in 2008, but it always felt like a feature to me rather than a product
    •  SearchMash always was a testbed for different search user experiences. It was not a product by any stretch of the imagination
    • Google PowerMeter was a piece of software from Google.org – the charitable foundation set up by Google
    • Google Directory used data pulled from the Open Directory Project, it just ranked them using its algorithm
    • Google Pack was a marketing ploy and possible revenue generator rather than a consumer product per se

    A number of businesses that Google got involved with where acqu-hires:

    • Aardvark
    • BumpTop
    • DocVerse
    • Dodgeball
    • fflick
    • Gizmo5
    • Jaiku,
    • Meebo
    • Picnik
    • Postini
    • Quickoffice
    • Slide
    • Zingku

    Spun-out / rebranded  products

    Product name Date of launch (DD/MM/YYYY) Fate
    Google body 15/10/2010 Google Body was part of Google Labs. It was handed over to Zygote Media Group on October 13, 2011.  It is now called Zygote Body. The source code is available under an open source license
    Google gears 31/05/2007 Removed from Google’s product set, Gears was released under a BSD license. News of Google’s migration away from Gears broke in November 2009

    Discontinued products

    Product name Date of launch (DD/MM/YYYY) Fate
    Google answers 04/2002 Google has taken a number of runs at Q&A services. Google Answers shut down was announced on November 28, 2006
    Google deskbar 06/11/2003 Google Deskbar came out of Google Labs; it put a Google search box inside the chrome of the operating system, allowing consumers to Google not just from inside the browser, but also productivity software.  It was discontinued on May 8, 2006. A similar feature was incorporated into Google Desktop Search.
    Orkut 24/01/2004 Facebook-like social network that used to be popular in India and Brazil.
    Google desktop 14/10/2004 Searched across the computer similar to Spotlight in OS X and a web search box a la Google Deskbar. Desktop also had Konfabulator-like web applets that provided information on weather, news etc. It was announced that it would be discontinued on September 2, 2011
    Google Notifier 2005 I can’t find a specific date in 2005 when Notifier was launched. It let desktop users now when an event was due on their Google calendar or an email available in Gmail
    iGoogle 05/2005 Discontinued on November 1, 2013
    Google talk 24/08/2005 Google’s VoIP client, replaced by Google Hangouts on May 2013
    Google reader 07/10/2005 Google closed down Reader despite the outcry from users. According to Google it had a loyal but declining user base so shut it down on July 1, 2013
    Google page creator 24/02/2006 A simple way of web publishing, which Google replaced with Google Sites in September 2008.
    Google notebook 10/05/2006 Google Notebook was a bit like a proto-Evernote. Content was exported to Google Docs on November 11, 2011 and the service disappeared by July 2012. On March 20, 2013, Google launched a similar service called Google Keep
    Google brower sync 08/06/2006 Rolled out of Google labs as a way of synchronizing settings, passwords and bookmarks across say work and home computers running the Firefox browser. Google’s Chrome browser has a similar function and shutting this function down would have been designed to persuade consumers to jump ship when it was discontinued in June 2008.
    Google image labeler 31/08/2006 Google copied the idea behind Carnegie Mellon’s ESP game to find a better way to teach its search what images were. Since it depended only on common answers from two random players, it prevented foul play so to speak. It was shut down on September 16, 2001
    Google code search 05/10/2006 Vertical search looking at open source code on the web, announced for shutdown on January 15, 2012
    Google website optimiser 10/2006 Free website testing tool to enable site owners to get more value from their site. Discontinued on August 1, 2012
    Google question & answers 28/05/2007 Google’s latest attempt at a Q&A service was ran as localized services in Russia, France, international English and China through a partnership with Tianya. It was closed down on June 23, 2014
    Knol 13/12/2007 Kind of similar to Squidoo in that it allowed experts to develop a sphere of content as user-written articles. It was announced on November 22, 2011 that it would be shut down.
    Google friend connect 12/05/2008 A social media profile that was exportable (possibly as a widget), what Wikipedia called a social networking script. Google signaled it was killing it off on November 23, 2011 to make way for Google+
    Google health 20/05/2008 Centralised personal health record service. It didn’t get to the UK but did influence David Cameron’s thinking on health IT. Discontinued January 1, 2012
    Google lively 08/07/2008 Google Lively was a way of creating a SecondLife-type environment for conference calls – one of the reasons why IBM was so interested in SecondLife in the first place. Lively was discontinued on December 31, 2008
    Google insights for search 05/08/2008 Google Insights for Search was merged with Google Trends on September 27, 2012
    Google latitude 05/02/2009 Location aware social application, similar to Dodgeball that Google had acquired and closed down. Latitude itself was shut down on June 10, 2013
    Google squared 12/05/2009 Google squared provided some of the functionality of Wolfram Alpha, in particular adding structure and relationships to apparently unstructured data sets. It was shut down on 05/09/2011
    Google wave 27/05/2009 Google Wave was a hybrid communications platform that allowed document collaboration and a mix of email and messaging. Google Wave was culled in a batch of ‘spring cleaning’ announced by Google in November 2011. Source code from Google Wave was released under an Apache license.
    Google fast flip 14/09/2009 Provided a flip board type of experience aggregating content from 39 news partners. It was axed on September 5, 2011
    Google building maker 13/10/2009 Allowed users to model existing buildings for inclusion in Google Earth as a 3D model. Shut down announced on March 13, 2013
    Google dictionary 12/2009 Google Dictionary was launched as a standalone product after being a feature in Google Translate. It was shut down without warning on August 5, 2011. Google has a dictionary function build into search using ‘define:”
    Google buzz 9/2/2010 A social network that integrated into Gmail, it was discontinued on December 15, 2011.
    Google cloud connect 24/2/2011 Google Cloud Connect was a Microsoft Office plug-in that allowed you to easily save documents to Google Docs. It was discontinued on April 30, 2013
    Google schemer 18/11/2011 An invite-only clone of 43 Things was shut down on February 7, 2014
    Quickoffice 05/06/2012 (date Google acquired the company) Quickoffice was an established mobile application when Google acquired the company, discontinued on June 29, 2014

    The closure of Google Reader felt to me like a water shed moment. Google Reader had come along and eviserated the current marketplace for RSS readers, though the size and reach of the Google network. Names like Fastladder and Bloglines disappeared. Once the competition was demolished Google then withdrew of the sector and a scramble of cottage industry services sprung up to try and fill the gap; my personal favourite being Newsblur.

    I suspect and have heard others suggest that Google has a problem getting users to use and commit to new services. I don’t think that Google Wave’s issue was consumer commitment, but poor product design, but the lack of adoption for say Google+ screams consumers and early adopters could be indicative of a wider wariness of the general public to invest their data and time in a new Google service. This maybe part of the reason why Google seems to be gradually extracting Google+ from its product matrix; just a few days ago no longer using Google+ author ranking in search.

    If one looks at Google+ versus other services in Google Trends we can see a similar level of interest to say Google Reader, something that Google has already admitted was a non-viable product.

    Google finds itself in a more normal internet brand marketing position: asking consumers for brand permission to innovate so that consumers will engage with their new products and services. Having been on the other side of that fence I realise what a challenge that can be. More Google related content here.

    More information

    Lycos IQ
    Lovely Jubii-ly | renaissance chambara
    IAC | Ask and the social web | renaissance chambara
    Open source intelligence | renaissance chambara

    Google Click To Call
    Google Tests Phone Numbers In AdWords Ads | SearchEngineLand

    Google Reader
    Reader May Have Died To Feed Google+’s APIs | Co.Labs

    Google Answers
    Adieu to Google Answers | Google Official Blog

    Google Deskbar
    Google’s Deskbar; Search Engine Forums Spotlight | Search Engine Watch

    Google Lively
    Be who you want on the web pages you visit | Google Official Blog

    Google Questions and Answers
    Baraza turning read only | Google Help

    Google Groups
    How to Search Today’s Usenet For Programming Information? | Slashdot
    Google’s Abandoned Library of 700 Million Titles (UPDATED) | Wired
    Google Begins Fixing Usenet Archive | Wired

    Google Wave
    More spring cleaning out of season | Google Official Blog

    Google Gears
    Stopping the Gears | Google Gears Blog

    Google+
    It’s Over: The Rise & Fall Of Google Authorship For Search Results | SearchEngineLand

  • Nine years span + more news

    Nine years span platform deal

    Reckitt Benckiser and Facebook announce partnership to get digitally closer to consumer – partnership over nine years. In the space of nine years Geocities went from vibrant community to graveyard. Over nine years MySpace relaunched twice – this agreement between RB and Facebook is a bet against disruptive innovation. That implies a whole range of issues regarding antitrust considerations. More FMCG related content here.

    Branding

    Oakley Disruptive by Design | Designboom – interesting how Oakley is trying to now associate itself with design goodness, rather than being disruptive designers themselves now

    TD Bank Boost Customer Advocacy via ATMs | VisibleBanking.com – nice iteration on the Coca-Cola campaigns of recent years

    JWT Launches ‘Forever Faster’ for Puma | MediaBistro – we were watching this advert in the office this morning and didn’t make any sense beyond being mildly entertaining

    Business

    Why Ebay Tells Manufacturers in China What You’re Searching For – The Atlantic – interesting thoughts around authenticity and nostalgia

    Here’s The Difference Between Working At Facebook, Google, And Microsoft — According To Someone Who Has Worked At All Three – some cultural insights at different companies. Interesting how stack ranking doesn’t seem to have turned Microsoft into a pressure cooker

    Guest post: has doing business in China just got too risky? | FT – don’t overreact (paywall)

    The Most Fascinating Profile You’ll Ever Read About a Guy and His Boring Startup | Business | WIRED – great interview with Stewart Brand

    An Insider’s Account of the Yahoo-Alibaba Deal – Harvard Business Review – interesting view of the deal from Sue Decker

    Chilling policy announced for China’s instant messaging services | WantChinaTimes – not really surprising, China has already tried to implement real name policy for cell phone SIMs and Weibo accounts. We’ll see how successful it actually is

    20 of 21 provinces probed engaged in property-related corruption | WantChinaTimes – openness by the Chinese government

    Online

    Forget :) Baidu’s Simeji App Captures Teenage Hearts in Japan – Bloomberg – interesting how traditional media is still a major driver of memes and trends

    Survey: YouTube Stars More Popular Than Mainstream Celebs Among U.S. Teens | Variety – self-serving data points

    15 specialist social network apps in China | Techinasia – interesting set of applications

    Meme

    Weibo user solicits pics for ‘most beautiful bosom’ contest｜WantChinaTimes.com – could you get away with this on Twitter, I doubt it

    Security

    Hacker’s own guide to the exploit | Pastebin – I found it really interesting that Google was do important in the process

    Technology

    China Online Shopper Spent $12.5 Billion Buying from Oversea E-tailers | ChinaInternetWatch – which is especially interesting given the ubiquity of UnionPay within China

    New Strategy as Tech Giants Transform Into Conglomerates | NYTimes – I would have thought that Microsoft and Cisco where already at conglomerate status?

    Wireless

    Huawei to slash low-end mobile phone models: executive | WantChinaTimes – interesting move, probably struggling to compete against other Shenzhen businesses living on razor thin margins

  • A content desert?

    I started thinking about the idea of a content desert for a few reasons:

    Experian Marketing Services put out a really nice whitepaper out in June as part of their ConsumerSpeak series called Millennials come of age. One graph stood out to me; the split across generations between traditional and digital media consumption.
    media diet
    On the face of it, two things struck me, consumption of online media increased between millenials and generation X – but not in a way that makes them radically different – . There was also a marginal increase in overall consumption between generation Y and generation X. Is this due to media literacy, less commitments or they were having to work harder to get a similar amount of value from their media consumption?

    We had a focus group in the office looking at the personal media consumption habits of 18 – 24 year olds with an interest in sport. One of the things that came out of this was that they would only buy a magazine about their favourite sport if they were getting on a long plane journey. They thought it was ‘too expensive’ to spend £4 on a magazine. A colleague who sits near me loves the magazine and gets a lot out of the long form articles published in it. He uses these articles as social currency, in the office and with friends. However the panelists that we met felt that they could get everything they needed from sources that they perceived to be of equal quality via free online media.

    This stuck with me for a few days, then I realised why I kept churning it around in my mind. It reminded me of the kind of dialogue and decision-making process that was made by poorer people around food and nutrition. A mix of skewed value systems and economics brought a food desert into these areas.

    I wonder if we aren’t seeing the same thing in the media industry, whilst we know that Buzzfeed and their ilk provide easily-consumed low-quality content usually about first world problems or childhood nostalgia – are generation Y merely getting the media that they deserve? Will there be a content desert? How would a content desert impact brands and perceptions of value?

    A few things give me hope that there may not be; Vice Media is building the global news network that is defining the 2010s in the same way that Aljazeera defined the post-9/11 world and CNN defined the end of the cold war. Although you could argue that with Vice the bill is paid by branded entertainment on behalf of sponsors like Nike and Intel.

    Television has entered a new golden era in dramas; will media companies take the opportunity to reinvigorate factual programming? More related content here.

  • Makimotos wave

    Makimotos wave is named after Dr Tsugio Makimoto. Dr Makimoto is a technologist who has worked at Sony and Hitachi. He co-authored Digital Nomad with David Manners which was published in 1997 and seems to have been influential to executives in the semiconductor industry. Makimotos wave named is a twenty-year cycle between custom design components and general components.

    While GPUs could be argued as general components based on their usage in machine learning and cryptocurrency mining.

    We’re definitely in an era of custom design components at the moment in personal computing, with PCs moving to bespoke processors based on the ARM architecture.

    At the moment in mobile we are in the custom part of the cycle with the kind of silicon being created for smartphones like Apple’s and Samsung’s respective chips and we are due to see a swing to general purpose components from 2017 or so.

    General purpose components may be very different to what we have been used to before. New processes will allow new functions to be built on the chips, though this seems to be happening at a slower rate with people like Intel making chipsets. Multiple pieces of silicon in a single chip package. 

    Makimotos wave helps us understand these transitions. 

    Like Moore’s Law, Makimotos law is used as a heuristic to try and understand what is happening within the industry. Dr Makimoto discusses it in this video below.  

    More similar content here.

  • Google Glass & things this week

    Google Glass and IBM

    An IBM video from 2000 did a pretty good use case and flaws of Google Glass. Good work (I presume by Ogilvy & Mather, but I maybe wrong). Looking on the bright side of things for Google Glass, this probably protects them from IP court cases, given the ad could be cited as prior art. All of this makes me wonder why companies like Google when working on Google Glass aren’t doing desk research looking for content like this through to science fiction and the challenges flagged up or unanswered questions. More related content here.

    Five years ago I would have wanted to watch this because Oakley was some kind of engineering wonderland, now I watch it curious to know how Kevin Spacey’s voice over would clash with the conservative designs currently coming out of Oakley post-Luxxotica takeover. Funnily enough the voiceover would have worked almost as well with his appearance in Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare.

    My colleague Phee went for a Gorkana briefing with the Wall Street Journal, as a Storify embed.

    Apple made a really nice 30-second spot to promote the MacBook Air range. The ad plays on how consumers personalise their computers as an analog for love. I started modifying the shell of my laptop as an anti-theft measure. Prior Apple laptops becoming so popular my customisations were limited to the software layer. Organising my desktop and having a desktop wallpaper of my own.

    One day a client tried to walk off with my laptop (they actually had a Lenovo), I managed to stop them, but then decided to customise it so there was no question of who’s laptop it was. Less about love, more about basic survival. For many of my geekier friends, a laptop lid, like a t-shirt is a billboard sharing their advocacy of a development language or the Open Source movement.

    There is something WestWorld-esque about the faceless robots in this film about K-league baseball team Hanwha Eagles and their devoted supporters. The film also makes an interesting point about how fandom and participation have changed with online participation mediated though the robots. It’s a fascinating approach and a next stage in consumer behaviour.