Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • Cyborg

    I was started down the train of thought to think about the idea of a cyborg based on a discussion with my colleague Colleen with regards to the changes we had been seeing in consumer behaviour. With that in mind I thought I would reflect on what my understanding of what cyborgs are.

    Check yer email
    ‘Moo-mail’ Yahoo! cow parade cow. The web appliance / cow cyborg hybrid used to stand in the lobby of building D, next to the Yahoo! branded merchandise store on the Yahoo! campus back when I worked there. It was originally created in 2000 as a buzz marketing gimmick to promote Yahoo! Mail – the company’s email product to New Yorkers. More here.

    Cyborg in culture

    I can just about remember playing with friends bionic man toys and primary school and remember the opening credits of The Six Million Dollar Man. The show ran from 1973 to 1978 and had a corresponding spin-off show called The Bionic Woman.

    According to the show a cyborg was:

    CY’BORG

    A HUMAN BEING WHOSE ORIGINAL HUMAN PARTS HAVE HAD TO BE REPLACED TO ONE EXTENT OR ANOTHER BY MACHINES THAT PERFORM THE SAME FUNCTIONS.

    According to the definition, at the time of writing my Dad is a cyborg, having had a pacemaker fitted a year or two ago. So would the character Batou be in Ghost In The Shell.

    Or Geordi La Forge in Star Trek Next Generation.

    The cyborg was a feature of cyberpunk culture. The key difference was that people chose to have augmentation, not just as a repair but as a form of enhancement.

    Optional enhancement

    Johnny Mnemonic had a storage brain interface fitted that allowed him to be a giant walking thumb drive as a profession.

    Fellow William Gibson creation Molly Millions has retractable razor sharp blades in her fingers and an augmented metabolic system. She has permanently fitted mirrored lens over her eyes that enhance her vision.

    Captain Cyborg

    Real life did a rather poor version of this cyberpunk fantasy with academic Kevin Warwick spoofed by IT paper The Register using the moniker Captain Cyborg for him. He did foolish things like implant himself with an RFID chip usually used for pet identification. And yes of course Warwick did a TED talk. I can’t tell whether the audience is laughing with him; or at him.

    So what has an office conversation got to do with a cyborg?

    Digital drugs

    Which brings me to how an office conversation spurred me to reflect on how a conversation on compulsive behaviour got me to start thinking about cyborgs. Culture did envisage some form of device addiction. The premise of Neal Stephenson’s novel Snow Crash revolves around a file that crashes a person’s computer and leaves a hacker called Raven with real-world brain damage in the process.

    Long live the new flesh

    Ten years earlier Videodrome featured a TV executive called Max Renn investigating a satellite TV show called Videodrome. It is described a socio-political battleground in which a war is being fought to control the minds of the North American population. Built into it is a signal that produces a malignant brain tumour. Renn’s reality dissolves over the rest of the film as he finds out more and then kills himself.

    There is a clear analogy with the heroin and crack cocaine epidemics that ravaged the cities of the western world through 1980s and 1990s as drugs of desperation in the face of globalisation. Science fiction is as much about the past and the present rather than the future. Heroin and crack both cost large amounts of money, so children tended to be secondary and tertiary victims rather than addicts in their own right. It would also be problematic for the authors to contemplate gratuitous harm to children in their works back then, let alone now in more anxious times.

    In both Snow Crash and Videodrome users suffer damage from technology that they are unwilling to put aside.

    Back to now

    Addiction is ‘real’

    My colleague put forward the following points:

    • Screens now dominate our lives, and their presence is only getting stronger and more powerful
    • (Some) adults can control to a certain extent how often and when they use screens. But there is a commonplace screen addiction.
    • Smartphone addiction and drug addiction share some similarities including a neglected personal life, a pre-occupation with the subject of the addiction, social media as a mood modifier or for escapism. The implication is that smartphones are an unwilling appendage which add capabilities (some of which are of a questionable value) and can’t be put down. All of which reminded me of my childhood (and adult relationship with music). But it is why I started to thinking about the nature of a cyborg

    Smartphone addiction

    Smartphone addiction goes by many names including screen addiction, online or internet addiction. Japan identified the phenomenon of hikikomori. The term was coined by social scientist Tomaki Saito in a 1998 book. While the term itself meant socially withdrawn, it hinged around the person staying home and playing video games or living a virtual life.

    By 2015, academic research indicated that somewhere between 1.9 – 2.5 percent of Hong Kongers aged from 12 to 29 might fall into the hikikomori category, compared to the 1.5 percent of Japanese believed to in the category.

    Meanwhile in the early 2000s BlackBerry email devices were nicknamed Crackberry, often by users who admitted overusing them in anti-social contexts. There was a corresponding term ‘BlackBerry orphans‘ for children who were ignored by parents wrapped up in their BlackBerry writing and reading emails instead of engaging at home.

    China was the first country to push for action to clamp down on children’s online time, in particular the use of online games. As far back as autumn 2005, China’s General Administration of Press and Publication had started trialling a fatigue system to limit screen time.

    By 2007, the local government of Shanghai had a camp set up to help cure teens of internet addiction working with a pilot bunch of inmate aged between 14 and 22. And just a year later the FT was documenting how the Chinese government was struggling to combat the addiction throughout the country. This addiction implies a cyborg-like relationship with their internet access device.

    In 2017, the substitute phone is launched as a kind of fidget tool. This provides the tactile experience of swiping and button pressing, but without any of the compelling addictive software.

    By 2018, smartphone manufacturers were worried about smartphone addiction and came up with different ways to try and give their customers better information and control over their smartphone usage.

    What about the children?

    My colleague asked the following question: given the impact on adults, who haven’t grown up with screens, what does this all mean for children?

    Remember the BlackBerry orphans earlier? My colleague proposed that now children are being taught once they are born that screens and smartphones are at the centre of life, rather than people. Parents use their smartphone as a substitute to toys, parent-child playtime or conversation or even reading to the child.

    This is claimed to manifest in impacted social and emotional development. Expert opinion is that children below 2 years old shouldn’t have any ‘technology in their life‘.

    There is a belief amongst experts that screen time can result in permanent damage to developing child’s brains impacting concentration, social kills and vocabulary. Some even believe that there might be a link between ADHD and TikTok.

    But the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH), the UK’s professional body most concerned with a child’s health, doesn’t publish any recommendations. There isn’t any research to indicate the ‘safe’ level and arguably commissioning this research would likely pose ethical questions.

    By the time children enter secondary education, they are likely to own a smartphone of some sort. They maybe exhibiting a number of physiological effects:

    • ‘Text neck’
    • Premature eye ageing
    • Sleepless nights

    Admittedly, as a child I was told that reading after lights out and listening to the radio or watching TV in the dark would result in ‘going blind’ or a lack of much needed sleep.

    Like television before it, online screen time adversely affects academic performance. My own exam grades were empirical evidence of this. China, South Korea and Taiwan both have different ways of limiting screen time. China has enabled technology with online games platforms. Taiwan has held the parents directly responsible and even fines them.

    Questions

    All of this prompted a number of questions with me:

    • Is it the device or is it the media?
    • Is it different to other waves of technology?

    Moral panics – or what can we learn from the past & our cyborg future

    Media

    • Rock music – academic research indicated that listening to rock music was linked to an increase of reckless behaviour including drug use, unprotected sex, casual sex, drunk driving, speeding and vandalism
    • Violent content – while violent content was considered to trigger a response in children, the overall risk associated with it was difficult to prove conclusively despite decades of research. Studies as far back as the mid 1990s indicated that there a lot of other factors to consider in addition to the exposure including mental health and cognitive ability.
    • Sexual content – the US Center for Media Literacy pulled together views on sexual violence in content. There wasn’t a lot of clarity in the plurality of views beyond the challenge of defining content to be of an overly sexual nature. What views were expressed were not backed by scientific research
    • Video gaming – because of the strategies used by players in video games. Academic research in 2015 indicated that video games might have a negative impact on brain development over time.

    Devices

    • Personal stereos – the use of a Sony Walkman and later on the iPod was considered to a negative effect on hearing. They were also considered to have a social effect, depending who you ask it considered to be empowering or dislocating from society with increased narcissism. The positive autonomy based interpretation was called the ‘Walkman effect‘. The implication from this research is that not giving a child a smartphone at a certain point could have a detrimental effect on them – at some point the child has to become a smartphone | human cyborg.
    • Televisions – when I was a child I was constantly told to not sit too close to the television and that doing so would cause me to go blind. According to Scientific American, it isn’t the distance from the television that affects the child, but a long enough amount can cause eye strain.

    The implication in past concerns about media and devices is that its the content that tends to do the damage rather than the device. This tends to indicate where action should be taken on ‘screen addiction’. As for our great cyborg future – it can’t be stopped.

  • Æon Flux + more things

    Æon Flux

    Æon Flux’s surprisingly modern take on privacy and surveillance. | Slate – Æon Flux was a name that I hadn’t heard in at least a decade. I remember when it came out as I enjoyed cable TV in our student house. It fitted in with the wider cyber culture. The big beats and brash gravity defying visuals were everywhere from WipeOut to anime. The media was tech artefacts from a future counter-culture.

    Macromedia Director and Flash produced animated video hardwired straight into our cortex. It was psychedelia but not as it had been experienced before. Asian animated and real world films weren’t mainstream but serious culture.

    Æon Flux & The Matrix

    The series came out in the early 1990s as part of a series of experimental animation on MTV called Liquid Television. It came out before The Matrix, yet drew from many similar influences:

    • Cyberpunk
    • Biopunk
    • Anime
    • Asian ‘gun fu’ action films
    • European comics in particular the space opera works of Möbius, Mézières & Christin. You can also see the influence that Chung had working with Ralph Bakshi on his fantasy animation
    • Gnostic beliefs

    In another Matrix link; Æon Flux creator Peter Chung (피터 정) went on to create a segment for the Wachowskis’ The Animatrix which told part of the back story of The Matrix quadrology.

    Privacy and the surveillance state

    Each episode saw a conflict play out between an anarchic city and its authoritarian rival. Flux was an assassin from the anarchic city on undercover missions.

    AEON FLUX

    The animated series had been released on VHS, DVD and UMD – the Sony Playstation Portable (PSP) disk media that was the ultimate manifestation of cyberpunk storage. For some reason, it hasn’t been released on Blu-Ray yet.

    It was truly transmedia with computer games and graphic novels to complement the animated series. Eventually Hollywood did a live action version that was vaguely related to the original Æon Flux. The original was too difficult and avant garde to be a Hollywood franchise, which is probably why the animated version has slipped back out of view.

    Given that Æon Flux was influenced by cyberpunk was inevitably seen as a prescient take on privacy and the surveillance state.

    Consumer behaviour

    Taking Affection Back | No Mercy / No Malice – some interesting and intractable problems in society revolving around how men are set up for failure. Contrast the diagnosis with this article: The Great Feminization of the American University | City JournalFemale students and administrators often exist in a co-dependent relationship, united by the concepts of victim identity and of trauma. For university females, there is not, apparently, strength in numbers. The more females’ ranks increase, the more we hear about a mass nervous breakdown on campus. Female students disproportionately patronize the burgeoning university wellness centers, massage therapies, relaxation oases, calming corners, and healing circles. Another newly installed female college president, Dartmouth’s Sian Leah Beilock, claims that the two “most pressing challenges of our time” are the “mental crisis among young people” and climate change. College institutions “really have a part to play in how we support students” suffering from that mental health crisis – correlation and causality aren’t the same thing

    Economics

    EU-China Relations and the War in Ukraine: A Reappraisal | Sinification – there is no way China comes out of this well from an economic perspective and Apple’s Chinese suppliers are looking for a way out | Apple Must 

    Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says he cannot take money out of China -FOX Business | Reuters – Mobius was a China bull for a long time

    Energy

    Development or Conflict? The China-Taliban Alliance – energy is at the centre of this

    Ethics

    Why social class is advertising’s biggest diversity blind spot | Advertising | Campaign AsiaSocial class might bring up antiquated ideas of British snobbery, but it exists everywhere. In Asia, social class is very pronounced. From obscenely wealthy ‘Crazy Rich Asian’ types, to a much reported on ‘rising middle class’, and a majority who are working class or live in poverty. The pandemic certainly brought class differences in Asia into sharp focus. Yet, despite making up the majority in society, advertising often fails to represent working class people. And when adverts do feature working class people, they usually perpetuate class-based stereotypes. Instead, the advertising industry is obsessed with targeting middle-class 18 to 34-year-olds, resulting in advertisements that seem to overlook the genuine diversity of society and instead mirror adland’s own demographic.

    Health

    Novak Djokovic’s unvaccinated status continues to stir controversy with latest U.S. tennis tournament withdraw – Since the start of 2022, Djokovic has missed the Australian Open, the U.S. Open and five Masters tournaments due to his vaccination status.

    Why do education, health care, and child care cost so much in America? 

    Hong Kong

    How Kwok Wai-Kin rose from disgrace to become a powerful national security judge (Part 1) 

    Ideas

    Interview: Kevin Kelly, editor, author, and futurist – huge fan of Kevin Kelly, this makes interesting reading

    Innovation

    China outpacing US in critical tech research ‘should be a wake up call’: report – Breaking Defense 

    Japan

    話題のChatGPTをLINEで使える「AIチャットくん」リリースから3日で20万登録突破 | みんなの便利な使用例を紹介 #AIチャットくん|株式会社piconのプレスリリースLINE adds ChatGPT gains 200,000 users in 3 days. ChatGPT speaks and understands Japanese, but uptake in Japan has been hampered, apparently, because you need to speak English to sign up. Line is the dominant messaging platform in Japan, and last week they added ChatGPT. You just add “AI Chat-kun” as a friend and start chatting. Up to five messages per day are free, and you can upgrade to unlimited messages for ¥680/month (about $5).

    Online

    The ‘Digital China’ Plan, cross-border data, ChinaGPT 

    Philippines

    [OPINION] Grayzone tactics: A maritime insurgency in the South China Sea?

    Security

    The Daring Ruse That Exposed China’s Campaign to Steal American Secrets – The New York TimesChina publicly denies engaging in economic espionage, Chinese officials will indirectly acknowledge behind closed doors that the theft of intellectual property from overseas is state policy. James Lewis, a former diplomat now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, recalls participating in a meeting in 2014 or so at which Chinese and American government representatives, including an officer from the People’s Liberation Army, discussed the subject. “An assistant secretary from the U.S. Department of Defense was explaining: Look, spying is OK — we spy, you spy, everybody spies, but it’s for political and military purposes,” Lewis recounted for me. “It’s for national security. What we object to is your economic espionage. And a senior P.L.A. colonel said: Well, wait. We don’t draw the line between national security and economic espionage the way you do. Anything that builds our economy is good for our national security.” The U.S. government’s response increasingly appears to be a mirror image of the Chinese perspective: In the view of U.S. officials, the threat posed to America’s economic interests by Chinese espionage is a threat to American national security.

    Cybersecurity strategy shifts toward making developers liable | Embedded 

    Technology

    INFER Public | The Pub Blog – Will U.S. allies go along with new export controls on China? 

    Telecoms

    Re: It’s 2023 (was 2022) and still no IPv6 – Page 2 – Roku Community

  • East Asian beauty standards + more things

    East Asian beauty standards

    YouTuber aini does good videos that analyse sociological and cultural subjects, so a video on East Asian beauty standards was inevitable. East Asian beauty standards are even more important now due to the cultural impact that they have:

    • Korean and Japanese beauty products that have become popular from BB cream to SK-II
    • Filter / camera effects mobile apps – you can see their influence looking at how Cardi B does her make-up
    • Soft power assets: Hallyu and anime popularity – it affects the aesthetics of this content

    China

    Huawei building automotive ecosystem without making its own carsHuawei will not build cars on its own, but will continue to strengthen its automotive ecosystem alliance and platform, integrating R&D efforts of related carmakers to provide diverse resources of smart systems, software, chips and other aspects – interesting profile by Taiwanese technology news outlet DigiTimes

    Samsung, SK Hynix might not be able to produce next-gen memory in China in 3-5 years, warns expert | DigiTimes 

    Consumer behaviour

    Interesting insight into 1960s and beyond consumer behaviour.

    Design

    People only want their technology to do three things – Terence Eden’s Blog 

    Economics

    Post Post Corona | No Mercy / No Malice 

    Millenials just as rich as their parents | Quartz – claims about unequal distribution of that wealth though

    Innovation

    GM Patents Self-Cleaning Touch Screen That Erases Fingerprints | Extreme Tech 

    Japan

    China no longer viable as world’s factory, says Kyocera | Financial Times – Japanese manufacturing benefits

    Interesting that proposes that cyberpunk owes as much to Japanese psyche during late bubble Japanese miracle culture as opposed to the writings of American authors Bruce Sterling and William Gibson. It reflects angst, consumerism and accelerated technology.

    Marketing

    Chairs, towels and GPS devices: where’s the line for analyst event swag? – GigaOm – swag has been a lot harder to get into budgets over the years

    Media

    Matty Healy: Check Your Privilege on ‘Gross’ Meet-and-Greets (Opinion) – Variety – ignore the title its an interesting exploration in the economics of music

    Guide to magazines doing advertising behind a paywall – Baekdal Plus 

    Online

    A Unique Identification Number for Every European Citizen – Verfassungsblog 

    John Battelle’s Search Blog Is Google Truly F*cked? 

    Retailing

    Joyconomy retail | WundermanThompson Intelligence 

    Security

    Cybersecurity Label for U.S. Coming as Early as April – EE Times600-plus companies that have joined the ioXt Alliance to help it build confidence in Internet of Things products will be among the first to experience the national cybersecurity label NIST is developing for consumer Internet of Things (IoT) products and consumer software products—as soon as April

    Why The Chinese Balloon Was a Necessary Wake-Up CallRecent events have shown that terrorism is not the only threat to the U.S. homeland. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine shattered not only the 75-year peace in Europe but also Americans’ sense of security, particularly when the Kremlin has threatened nuclear escalation. Relations with Beijing have also deteriorated to a 40-year low, punctuated by the threat of Chinese aggression against Taiwan and other regional allies and covert activities within the United States

    The War in Ukraine: China Is Reportedly Negotiating with Russia To Supply Kamikaze Drones – DER SPIEGEL 

    ASML admits Chinese data theft may have broken export controls | EE Times 

    Style

    Li Ning in China: leveraging national confidence to win young Chinese consumers 

    Technology

    Chinese chip companies cement IP defence by aggressive patent filings | DigiTimes and China dominates semiconductor patent activity | EE Times 

    Paragraf opens second UK graphene electronics manufacturing site | EE Times 

  • Francis Fukuyama + more things

    Francis Fukuyama

    Political theorist and author Francis Fukuyama wrote one of the mis-understood books of the late 20th century. The End of History (And The Last Man) was written in 1989 and the title and Francis Fukuyama have been misquoted endlessly since.

    Foror 25 años ICP

    At the 2020 Munich Security Conference Francis Fukuyama gave a talk about the book and what it actually meant from his perspective.

    This one on tribalism on and populism is also very interesting.

    Business

    Great video on the history of HNA, which went under a mountain of debt and was unwound by the Chinese government.

    HNA started off as Hainan Airlines before expanding internationally and across sectors.

    B-5971 Hainan Airways A330

    Finance

    M-Pesa eyes the global remittances trillion-dollar market | Quartz 

    Dollar funding for Chinese start-ups dries up | Financial Times – not terribly surprising given the investment and regulatory environment in China

    FMCG

    Macron versus McDonald’s: how France ditched disposable food packaging | Financial Times

    Ideas

    Why German think tanks have to change the way they work 

    Wokeness as mainline orthodoxy – NoahpinionMusa al-Gharbi has a recent article with quite a bit of data showing that journalistic and academic attention to the topics of diversity, bias, privilege, and so on seems to have peaked, while “cancel culture” incidents have decreased on campuses and in corporations, and political opinions on various social issues have moderated a bit. Anecdotally, corporate interest in DEI seems to be waning as well. Other observers like Tyler Cowen have noticed the trend.

    Luxury

    Survey Finds Japanese People’s Dream Car Is a Lexus | Nippon.com – bad news for Mercedes & BMW. This isn’t about Japanese nationalism as Mercedes and BMW have enjoyed healthy sales in the country in the past. Much of this is about the massification of these brands and the decline in quality in comparison to the single-mindedness of Lexus engineers.

    Marketing

    The Drum | How Nestlé Is Using AI To Set Creative Rules For Its 15,000 Marketers – In 2021, Nestlé started to put all its creative through an AI platform that would rank ads based on their suitability to different online platforms and pull out the key elements that are required for maximum ROI. That process created a set of ’rules’ for successful campaigns and early tests generated transformational results, finding that ads that meet the new creative requirements generate a significantly higher return on ad spend. Now, Nestlé’s 15,000 marketers across 2,000 brands in 200 territories have to test the ads in the machine learning platform prior to rolling a campaign out – my biggest concern is that this becomes reductive in terms of creativity and self reinforcing rather than facilitating the picking of true winners. Secondly, I could see it over-indexing on brand activation rather than brand building spend and ultimately destroy value

    Airbnb’s earnings surge after ‘incredibly effective’ marketing shift | Marketing Week – part of this is down to the fact that most online media is focused on performance marketing or brand activation rather than brand building. Pivoting to a more balanced spend will make a positive difference.

    Media

    Hong Kong journalist Bao Choy launches new media outlet amid ‘collapsing’ press freedom – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP 

    Daily Mirror publisher explores using ChatGPT to help write local news | Financial Times 

    Online

    How a Covert Firm Spreads Lies and Chaos Around the World – DER SPIEGEL 

    Security

    US-initiated joint export curbs on China leave critical loopholes? | DigiTimes 

    ByteDance is quietly becoming a force in VR (and more) | Techinasia – theft of ASML proprietary information by Chinese employees. The song remains the same

  • NORA

    Last week I heard the acronym NORA mentioned with regards the kind of problems that Microsoft’s algorithm could solve. NORA stands for no one real answer. Search is already pretty good at answering questions like ‘what time is it in Osaka’ or ‘what is the capital of Kazakhstan’.

    In the mid-2000s NORA would have been called ‘knowledge search‘ by the people at Google, Yahoo! and Bing – who were the main search engine companies. So its not a new idea in search, despite what one might believe based on the hype around chatbot enabled search engines. ChatGPT and other related generative AI tools have been touted as possible routes to get to knowledge search.

    Knowledge search

    Back when I worked at Yahoo! the idea of knowledge search internally was about trying to carve out a space that useful and differentiated from Google’s approach as defined by their mission:

    To organise the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful

    Our approach to search – Google

    Google was rolling out services that not only searched the web. It also covered maps, the content of books including rare libraries and academic journals. It was organising the key news stories and curating which publications were seen in relation to that story. It could tell you the time elsewhere in the world and convert measures from imperial to metric.

    Google’s Gmail set the standard in organising our personal information, making the email box more accessible and searchable than it had been previously. We take having a journaled hard drive for granted now, but at one time Google Desktop put a search of the files on your computer together with online services in one small search box.

    Google Desktop Mac

    Being as good as Google was just table stakes. So when I was at Yahoo! we had our own version of Google Desktop. We bought Konfabulator, that put real time data widgets on your desktop and were thinking about how to do them on the smartphone OS of the time Nokia’s Symbian S60. Konfabulator’s developer Arlo Rose went on to work on Yahoo!’s mobile experiences and Yahoo! Connected TV – a photo-smart TV system that was before the modern Apple TV apps. Tim Mayer led a project to build out an index of the web for Yahoo! as large, if not bigger than Google’s at the time. And all of these developments were just hygiene factors.

    My colleagues at Yahoo! were interested in opinions or NORA; which is where the idea of knowledge search came in. Knowledge search had a number of different angles to it:

    • Tagged content such as my Flickr photo library or social bookmarking provided content from consumers about a given site that could then be triangulated into trusted context, or used to train a machine learning model of what a cat looked like
    • Question and answer services like Quora, Yahoo! Answers and Naver’s Jisik In Service improved search. Naver managed to parlay this into becoming the number one search engine for Korea and Koreans. Google tried to replicate this success with Knol and failed
    • Reviews. Google managed to parlay reviews into improving its mobile search offering. Google acquired Zagat in 2011. This enabled Google to build a reputation for good quality local restaurant reviews. It eventually sold the business on again to another restaurant review site The Infatuation

    The ChatGPT type services in search are considered to provide an alternative to human-powered services. They create NORA through machine generated content based on large data sets trawled from the web.

    Energy consumption

    A conventional Google internet search was claimed to consume 0.3 watt/hours of power according to Google sources who responded to the New York Times back in 2011. This was back when Google claimed that it was processing about one billion (1,000,000,000) searches per day. It accounted for just over 12 million of the 260,000,000 watt hours Google’s global data centres use per day. The rest of it comes from app downloads, maps, YouTube videos.

    But we also know that the number of Google searches ramped up considerably from those 2011 publicly disclosed numbers

    Google global search volume

    The driver for this increase was mobile search including more energy intensive Google Lens and voice activated searches thanks to Android.

    Large language models (LLMs) are computationally intensive and this will result in a corresponding rise in energy consumption. That also has implications in terms of business profit margins as well as ESG related considerations.

    Legal liabilities

    With NORA content being created by machine learning services, it might be different to the previous generation of knowledge search services. These services were platforms, but machine learning services become publishers.

    This becomes important for a few reasons

    • Increased costs (while they aren’t using an army of writers, they are using a lot of computing power to generate the responses)
    • Legal protections (in the US)
    • Intellectual property and plagiarism issues, currently they can handle it just by taking down the content. Once they become a publisher rather than a platform things become more complicated

    “no provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider”

    Communications Decency Act of 1996.Section 230

    Section 230 has been repeatedly used to regulate Facebook, Google et al in a lax manner as they haven’t been ‘publishers’, with ChatGPT this may change. The question of whether an algorithm is a creator has some precedence. Financial reporting has used machine learning to create news reports on company financial results over a number of years. Combine that with the general political antipathy towards Meta and Alphabet from both of the main US political parties and things could get interesting very fast.

    It is interesting that OpenAI is putting a lot of thought around ethics in LLM, which will impact future services and they probably hope stave off regulation.

    Regulated industries and liability

    Given an LLM’s ability to make things up it can:

    • Gives advice without pointing out health risks by creating a workout plan or a weight loss diets
    • Gives bad legal advice
    • Infringe regulations surrounding different industries like financial services

    This is just the tip of the iceberg that NORA content powered by LLMs face.

    Business model disruption

    Search advertising as we know it has been the same for the past two decades. The disruption to the look and feel of search results through Bing’s chat response has a negative impact on Google’s advertising model with the search ads along the top and down the right hand side of the search engine results page. Instead you’ll end up with the ‘correct’ answer and no reason to click on the search adverts.

    Currently if a non-relevant site shows up in Google. The lack of relevance is blamed on the site rather than the search engine. However an error in a machine learning created NORA response will see the search engine blamed.

    Which is pretty much what happened when Google demonstrated their efforts in the area. Inaccuracies in a demonstration held in Paris cause the share price of Alphabet to decline by 7 percent in one day. Technology news site TechCrunch even went as far as to say that Google is losing control.

    Microsoft probably doesn’t have a lot to lose in Bing. So integrating ChatGPT’s LLM might give them a few percentage points of search market share. Microsoft thinks that each percent gain would be worth 2 billion dollars in extra revenue.

    The 2 billion number is an estimate and we don’t know how the use of NORA results generated by LLM will affect bidding on search keywords. That 2 billion might be a lot less.

    Is NORA the user problem that Google and Bing’s use of LLMs are fixing?

    Around about the time that Google enjoyed a massive uptake in search it also changed search to meet a mobile paradigm. Research type searches done by everyone from brand planners to recruiters and students have declined in quality to an extent that some have openly questioned is Google dead?

    Google search box

    Boolean search no longer works, Danny Sullivan at Google admitted as much here. While Google hasn’t trumpeted the decline of Boolean search, ‘power’ users have noticed and they aren’t happy. That narrative together with the botched demo the other week reinforced each other.

    Unfortunately, due to the large number of searches that don’t require Boolean strings, Google wasn’t going to go back. Instead, chat-based interfaces done right might offer an alternative for more tailored searches that would be accessible to power users and n00bs alike?

    Technology paradigm shift?

    At first the biggest shock that myself and others had seeing the initial reports was how Google and Microsoft could have been left in the dust of OpenAI. Building models requires a large amount of computing power to help train and run.

    Microsoft had already been doing interesting things in machine learning with Cortana on Azure cloud services and Google had been doing things with TensorFlow. Amazon Web Services provides a set of machine learning tools and the infrastructure to run it on.

    Alphabet subsidiary DeepMind had already explored LLM and highlighted 21 risks associated with the technology, which is probably why Google hadn’t been looking for a ChatGPT type front end to search. The risks highlighted included areas such as:

    • Discrimination, Hate speech and Exclusion although there is research to indicate that there might be solutions to this problem
    • Information Hazards – there has already been a case study on how an LLM can be influenced to display a socially conservative perspective.
    • Misinformation Harms – researchers claimed that LLMs were “prone to hallucinating” (liable to just make stuff up)
    • Malicious Uses
    • Human-Computer Interaction Harms
    • Environmental and Socioeconomic harms

    Stories that have appeared about ChatGPT and Bing’s implementation of it seem to validate the DeepMind discussion paper on LLMs.

    The Microsoft question of why they partnered with ChatGPT rather than rolling out their own product is more interesting. Stephen Wolframs in-depth explanation of how ChatGPT works is worth a read (and a couple of re-reads to actually understand it). Microsoft’s efforts in probabilistic machine learning looks very similar in nature to ChatGPT. As far back as 1996, then CEO Bill Gates was publicly talking about how Microsoft’s expertise in Bayesian networks as a competitive advantage against rivals. Microsoft relied on research and the Bayesian network model put forward by Judea Pearl which he describes in his book Heuristics.

    Given the resources and head start that Microsoft had, why were they not further along and instead faced being disrupted by OpenAI? Having worked in the past with Microsoft as a client, I know they won’t buy into anything that they can build cheaper. That raises bigger questions about Microsoft’s operation over the past quarter of a century and its wider innovation story to date.

    Flash in the pan

    At times the technology sector looks more like a fashion industry driven by fads more than anything else. A case in point being last years focus on the metaverse. The resulting hike in interest rates has seen investment drop in the field. Businesses like Microsoft and Meta have shut down a lot of their efforts, or have scaled back. It is analogous to the numerous ‘AI winters‘ that have happened over the past 50 years as well.

    Bing’s implementation of LLM is already garnering criticism from the likes of the New York Times. This new form of search may end up being a flash-in-the-pan like Clubhouse. The latent demand for NORA in search will still be there, but LLM might not be the panacea to solve it. Consumers may continue to rely on Reddit and question-and-answer platforms like Quora as an imperfect solution in the meantime.

    In summary….

    • NORA content generated by LLMs represent a new way to solve a long known about challenge in online search
    • NORA as a concept was previously called knowledge search
    • NORA content competes with: social media including Reddit, specialist review sites including Yelp or OpenRice and question and answer services including Quora
    • ChatGPT and similar services affect human perceptions of search and the experience makes them more critical of the search engine response is not of an acceptable standard
    • LLMs represent a number of challenges that large technology companies have discussed publicly, but were still attractive for some reason
    • ChatGPT shows up the the decades of research that Google, Microsoft and Amazon have put into machine learning, this will negatively affect investors attitudes to these companies and merits a more critical nuanced examination of ‘innovation’. These large companies seem to be struggling to put applied innovation into practice. Microsoft buying into ChatGPT is essentially an admission of failure in its own efforts over at least 3 decades. Even ChatGPT’s deeply flawed product is considered to be better than nothing at all by these large technology companies
    • Use of ChatGPT like services expose Google and Bing to business risks that are legal and regulatory in nature. It could even result in loss of life
    • ChatGPT’s rise has surfaced deep seated concerns amongst technologists, early adopters, power users and investors about Google’s ability to execute on innovation successfully now (and in the future). Google’s search product has been weakened over time by its focus on mobile search dominance. Alphabet as a whole is no longer seen as a ‘leader’
    • LLMs, if successful would disrupt the online advertising business model around search engine marketing
    • ChatGPT and its underlying technology do not represent a paradigm shift
    • There is evidence to suggest that ChatGPT and other LLM powered chat search interfaces could turn out to be a fad rather than a future trend. The service as implemented has underwhelmed