Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • Business cards

    The Financial Times opined on the obsolescence of business cards. This has been a common theme for the past quarter of a century, so whether or not it’s actually news is up for debate.

    TWGE

    Business cards have been a surprisingly accurate marker of my career’s evolution. Before college, when I was working in laboratories to save up, business cards were strictly for management. If anyone needed to reach me, they’d receive my name and extension number scribbled on a company compliments slip.

    Fast forward to my early agency days, and changing my business cards became the immediate priority after receiving a promotion letter. I vividly recall discussing new cards with our office manager, Angie, to reflect my new title: from Account Executive to Senior Account Executive. While that promotion enabled me to buy my first home, it was the tangible act of updating my business cards that truly solidified that future title for me in my memory.

    Building a network was an important part of development in the early part of my career and my manager at the time would ask us each week how many business cards we’d given out as a way of quantifying that development.

    Business cards had a symbolism and status that was captured famously in Brett Easton Ellis’ American Psycho and in memorable scene of its its subsequent film adaptation.

    Even today in Asian countries, business cards come loaded with cultural symbolism and a distinct etiquette of exchange. The exchange of them is handy as it allows to lay out a model of who is around a meeting table based on the card collection, facilitating easier meeting communications.

    Personal organisers

    In the mid-1990s, the personal organiser was a staple, its prevalence varying depending on location and budget. These organisers typically featured loose-leaf pages for schedules, an address book, and a system for storing and archiving business cards, even those of people who had moved on. However, by 2001, the media was already concerned about the impending demise of the personal organiser and its potential impact on the business card’s future.

    Filofax

    Filofax has the reputation for being the most British of brands. It originally started off as an importer of an American product Lefax. Lefax was a Philadelphia-based business which made organisers popular within industry including power plant engineers in the early 20th century.

    At that time electricity was considered to be the enabler that the internet is now, and Lefax helped to run power plants effectively and reliably. Filofax eventually acquired Lefax in 1992. During the 1980s, the Filofax became a symbol of professionalism and aspirational upward mobility. I was given one as soon as I started work, I still have it at my parents home. It’s leather cover didn’t even develop a patina, despite the beating it took in various parts of my work life: in night clubs, chemical plants and agency life. Filofax even became part of cinematic culture in the James Belushi film Taking Care of Business also known as Filofax in many markets.

    Day-Timer

    In the US, there was the Day-Timer system, which came out of the requirements of US lawyers in the early 1950s and became a personal management tool for white collar workers in large corporates like Motorola – who appreciated their whole system approach. Day-Timer was as much a lifestyle, in the same way that David Allen’s Getting Things Done® (GTD®) methodology became in the mid-2000s to 2010s. Customers used to go and visit the personal organiser factory and printing works for fun. Along the way, other products such as At-A-Glance and Day Runner had appeared as substitute products. Day-Timer inspired the Franklin Planner system; a similar mix of personal organiser and personal management philosophy launched in 1984.

    By the mid-1990s, Day-Timer had skeuomorphic PC programme that mirrored the real-world version of the Day-Timer. At the time this and competitor applications would allow print-outs that would fit in the real world Day-Timer organiser. Day-Timer’s move to mobile apps didn’t so well and now it exists in a paper-only form catering to people wanting to organise their personal lives and home-workers.

    Rolodex

    While the Filofax allowed you take to your world with you, the Rolodex allowed you to quickly thumb through contacts and find the appropriate name.

    Rolodex

    Back when I first started my first agency job, I was given my first Rolodex frame. I spent a small fortune on special Rolodex business card holders. At my peak usage of Rolodex as a repository for my business contacts, I had two frames that I used to rifle through names of clients, suppliers and other industry contacts.

    Rolodex became a synonym for your personal network, you even heard of people being hired for ‘their Rolodex’. For instance, here’s a quote from film industry trade magazine Hollywood Reporter: Former British Vogue Chief Eyes September for Launch of New Print Magazine, Platform (May 8, 2025):

    …to blend “the timeless depth of print with the dynamism of digital” with coverage of top creative forces, no doubt leaning into Edward Enninful’s enviable Rolodex of A-list stars, designers and creators gathered through years spent in the fashion and media space with tenures at British Vogue and as European editorial director of Vogue.

    If I was thinking about moving role, the first thing I would do is take my Rolodex frames home on a Friday evening. The fan of business cards is as delicate as it is useful. It doesn’t do well being lugged around in a bag or rucksack. Each frame would go home in a dedicated supermarket shopping bag.

    The Rolodex was anchored to the idea of the desk worker. The knowledge worker had a workstation that they used everyday. Hot-desking as much the computer is the enemy of the Rolodex. My Rolodex usage stopped when I moved to Hong Kong. My frames are now in boxes somewhere in my parents garage. Doomed not by their usefulness, but their lack of portability.

    Personal information management

    The roots of personal information management software goes back ideas in information theory, cognitive psychology and computing that gained currency after the second world war.

    As the idea of personal computers gained currency in the 1970s and early 1980s, personal information software appeared to manage appointments and scheduling, to-do lists, phone numbers, and addresses. The details of business cards would be held electronically.

    At this time laptops were a niche computing device. Like the Rolodex, the software stayed at the office or in the den at home. NoteCards used software to provide a hybridisation of hypertext linkages with the personal information models of the real world. NoteCards was developed and launched in 1987, prefiguring applications like DevonTHINK, Evernote and Notion by decades.

    As well as providing new links to data, computers also allowed one’s contacts to become portable. It started off with luggable and portable laptop computers.

    Putting this power into devices that can fit in the hand and a coat pocket supercharged this whole process.

    Personal digital assistants

    Personal digital assistants (PDA) filled a moment in time. Mobile computer data connections were very slow and very niche on GSM networks. Mobile carrier pricing meant that it only worked for certain niche uses, such as sports photographers sending their images though to their agency for distribution to picture desks at newspapers and magazines. While the transfer rate was painfully slow, it was still faster than burning the images on to CD and using a motorcycle courier to their picture agency.

    The PDA offered the knowledge worker their address book, calendar, email and other apps in their pocket. It was kept up to date by a cradle connected to their computer. When the PDA went into the cradle information went both ways, contacts and calendars updated, emails sent, content to be read on the PDA pushed from the computer. IBM and others created basic productivity apps for the Palm PDA.

    IrDA

    By 1994, several proprietary infra red data transmission formats existed, none of which spoke to each other. This was pre-standardisation on USB cables. IrDA was a standard created by an industry group, looking to combat all the proprietary systems. The following year, Microsoft announced support in Windows, allowing laptops to talk with other devices and the creation of a simple personal area network.

    This opened the possibility of having mice and other input devices unconstrained by connecting cables. It also allowed PDAs to beam data to each other via ‘line of sight’ connections. The reality of this was frustrating. You would often have to devices an inch from each other and hold them there for an eternity for the data to crawl across. It wasn’t until 1999 that the first devices with Bluetooth or wi-fi appeared and a couple more years for them to become ubiquitous. Unsolicited messages over Bluetooth aka bluejacking started to appear in the early 2000s.

    But IrDA provided a mode of communication between devices.

    versit Consortium

    versit Consortium sorted another part of the puzzle. In the early 1990s the blending of computer systems with telephony networks as gaining pace. A number of companies including Apple, IBM and Siemens came together to help put together common standards to help computer systems and telephony. In 1995, they had come up with the versitcard format for address book contacts, better known now as ‘vCards’. These were digital business cards that could be exchanged by different personal information management software on phones, computers and PDAs. For a while in the late 1990s and early 2000s I would attach my vCard on emails to new contacts. I still do so, but much less often.

    The following year the same thing happened with calendar events as well.

    Over time, the digital business card came to dominate, via device-to-device exchanges until the rise of LinkedIn – the professional social network.

    Faster data networks allowed the digital business card sharing to become more fluid.

    A future renaissance for the business card?

    While business cards are currently seen outdated in the west, could they enjoy a renaissance? There are key changes in behaviour that indicate trends which would support a revitalisation of business cards.

    Digital detox

    While information overload has been a turn that has been with us since personal computers, digital detox is a new phenomenon that first started to gain currency in 2008 according to Google Books data. Digital detox as a concept has continued to climb. It has manifested itself with people talking a break from their screens including smartphones. Digital detox has continued to gain common currency.

    Creating a need for tangible contact details in the form of a business card in certain contexts.

    The pivot of personal organisers

    Day-Timer and Filofax didn’t disappear completely. While Day-Timer is no longer a professional ‘cult’, it now helps remote workers organise their own work day at home. They also tap into the needs of people organising their own wedding. The paper plans also gives them a memento of this event in a largely digital world.

    If personal organisers continue to exist then real-world business cards would also make sense in those contexts.

    Bullet-journaling

    Ryder Carroll is known as the ‘father’ of the bullet journal which was a home-made organisation method which was similar to the kind of task lists I was taught to pull together in my first agency role. There were aspects of it that would be familiar to Day-Timer advocates as well.

    When the world was going digital Carroll used paper to help organise himself. Carroll tapped into the fact that even computer programmers use paper including notebooks and post-it notes to manage projects and personal tasks within those projects. Carroll took his ‘system’ public via Kickstarter project in 2013.

    Bullet journaling provided its users with simplicity, clarity and an increased sense of control in their life. What is of interest for this post, is the move from the virtual back into paper organisation.

    Changing nature of work

    Hybrid working, remote working and increasing freelance communities in industry such as advertising has affected one’s professional identity. This has huge implications for personal standing and even mental health. Human connection becomes more important via virtual groups and real-world meet-ups. Controlling one’s own identity via a business card at these meet-ups starts to make an increasing amount of sense.

    The poisoning of the LinkedIn well

    On the face of it LinkedIn has been a wonderful idea. Have a profile that’s part CV / portfolio which allows your social graph of professional connections to move with you through your career. Services were bolted on like advertising, job applications and corporate pages to attract commercial interest and drive revenue.

    Over time, LinkedIn has increased the amount of its creator functions, driving thought leadership content that is a prime example of enshitification. 2025 saw ‘thought leaders’ publishing generative AI created posts as entirely their own work.

    LinkedIn has become devalued as a digital alternative to the humble business card.

    More related posts can be found here.

  • Augmented retailing

    What I’m calling augmented retailing is a step change in technology in retailing from efficiency to effectiveness.

    Retailing efficiency

    Cash Register Ads

    Before we talk about augmented retailing, let’s go through efficiency which has been the focus for a long time. Depending on the way you want to look at this, you could look back centuries to the foundation of a technology multiplier: children.

    Family retail businesses had family members working in their business from once they could understand and act on instructions. I have friends that started working in the family restaurant from 6-years old. I started working on the family farm (ineffectively) from a similar age.

    Weighing scales were starting to become standardised by the middle-ages and giving short measures could see you punished.

    The next innovation were payment related, such as currency and credit.

    At the end of the 19th century thanks to industrialisation you started to see the origins of supermarkets as we now think about them. Sears Roebuck was the exemplar for mail order business, from which we now have Amazon and the countless e-tailers out there. Around about the same time the cash register was invented, which allowed cashiers to deal with more customers in a given amount of time. Cash registers then improved over the next century.

    At the end of the 20th century we start to see e-tailing emerge. Accelerating mail order from being a niche to becoming a mainstream form of retail. Around the same time, you also saw cashier-less tills come in and other techniques to make shopping even more self-service.

    Augmented retailing

    Augmented retailing isn’t for the primary benefit of the retailer; but the customer. That’s more radical than it sounds as I write this down.

    Look at other trends that marked change in retail and its about inconvenience to ‘create’ demand:

    • Apple retail product launches.
    • Abercrombe and Fitch / Hollister’s ‘club style’ door queues.
    • Drop culture.
    • Raffles to win the right to buy a product.

    I have started to see innovations that are focused on the effectiveness of the consumer experience, rather than being orientated around retailing efficiency.

    Mylowe virtual advisor

    Lowe’s is a DIY superstore, rather similar to B&Q, Homebase or Toolstation in the UK. Like B&Q, Lowe’s has on-site experts to advise customers and help them select parts for projects.

    Mylowe helps the experts by augmenting their expertise, providing a faster, better experience for Lowe’s customers.

    A-eye

    Indian snack manufacturer Britannia worked with their agency VML India to aid blind consumers to shop independently. The app christened A-eye uses Google’s Vertex AI to recognise products on shelves and provide information about the product (quantity, ingredients, instructions etc.). Think about the personal confidence that this would bring to the user in their everyday life.

    Albert Heijn provides cooking tips

    Dutch supermarket brand Albert Heijn uses generative AI to help consumers by answering cooking questions. `Mijn AH assistent’ helps customers in their food shopping for food ingredients.

    More related content here.

  • Walsh’s + more stuff

    Walsh’s of Mullingar

    Walsh’s is the kind of business I grew up with in Ireland. In my part of the world it wasn’t the Walsh’s it was Kelly’s and Salmon’s who both ran general stores on the edge of my parish. It was a mix of groceries, cigarettes, a top-loading cabinet of ice creams. In the local market town there was O’Meara’s who still run a supermarket, Lynch’s who run a hardware store, builders yard and farm supplies and Hayes – a chemist and veterinary pharmacy. Like Walsh’s they are all multi-generational businesses with customers from the same families over successive generations.

    Maintaining a multi-generational business was (and still is for many) a matter of pride. It can be a great business, you know your customers needs and personalities far better than I ever did working for the likes of Unilever. The Walsh’s will have been with their generations of customers at key times in their lives: engagements, marriage, anniversaries and retirements.

    When my Uncle died and we had a wake for him, I met the the pharmacist who looked after his personal and farm needs and her Dad who had filled my prescription for cough medicine as a child. There were people from the hardware store, farm supplies, the newsagent who my family always got their copies of the Irish Farmer’s Journal and the Connacht Tribune.

    The Walsh’s are wrapping up because their business can no longer compete with the scale of online jewellers.

    It’s interesting that COVID was the inciting incident that broke the generations of consumer behaviour, brand loyalty and relationships. The second factor that the Walsh’s named was the hollowing out of people living within the market town of Mullingar. That’s especially interesting given that Ireland currently has a chronic housing shortage makes me wonder what is going on.

    More related posts:

    Concepts as viral marketing

    Chris Spargo runs one of the most interesting British YouTube channels looking at the minutae of the UK from supermarket clock towers to book barcodes and milk packaging. This film looks at how The Glass Committee funded by Pilkington Glass created outlandish concepts that promoted discussion. Weirdly enough some of the ideas found themselves from the most outrageous concepts into Britain’s new towns developments.

    A history of hacking

    Frederico Mazzini goes through a history of hacking with a focus on culture. Even though it was presented for Tokyo College, it had a very western centric slant to it. Interesting points about hacking is an explicit political activity in some non-US cultures – notably France, Italy and Germany.

    What became apparent was that Mazzini lacked was any kind of understanding of hacking in Japan, which runs with a much lower profile than their counterpart western communities according to Trend Micro.

  • Share of search volume

    Les Binet did some sterling work thinking about share of search volume as part of his ongoing work looking at marketing effectiveness.  

    Les Binet

    In order to understand share of search volume, we have to go back to 1990 when former advertising veteran and professor John Philip Jones[i] published a paper in the Harvard Business Review[ii] and a subsequent book[iii].

    Jones’ research around the linkage between advertising and sales by looking at advertising including tools of his invention STAS (short term advertising strength)[iv] and AIC (advertising intensiveness curve). One of Jones’ key findings was the linkage between a brand’s share of voice and its market share. One of the biggest predictors of brand growth was ESoV (excess share of voice). ESoV is when a brand has a share of voice in excess of the proportion needed to maintain its market share. 

    During economic good times this might be down to an increase in brand building marketing spend, not only advertising and public relations, but also influencer and sports sponsorships with variable[v] results. 

    During recessionary times[vi], it might be maintaining brand building marketing spend when the competitors are cutting back. 

    Part of this brand building work overlaps with increasing marketing penetration through increasing the number of places where the brand is available. During the 95 percent of time that you are not in a buying mindset when you pass a product display in a supermarket it’s a billboard – doing the brand building work. 

    Jones’ findings were later validated by Peter Field and Les Binet’s work on marketing efficiency[vii], and in the summation of research[viii] from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science by Byron Sharp. 

    Share of search volume

    The clever thing that Les Binet[ix] did with share of search volume[x] was find it as a predictor on the likely time when ESoV was likely to impact with a growth in market share AND, he found that the share of search volume change mapped neatly on to market share change.  

    The challenge is that different sectors have different times between a change in share of search volume and the corresponding change in market share[xi].   

    “For mobile phone handsets, Binet further ventured, share of search leads market share “by about six months” as a performance indicator – offering marketers a chance to adapt their strategies if needed if a decline is expected.

    “If the brand … had access to the share of search data at the time, it would have had a six-month warning that share of market was about to turn around,” Binet said. “That’s an incredibly useful metric.”

    Share of search’s predictive quality for energy brands, Binet explained, was noticeably shorter, at just “nought to three months.”

    For automakers, by contrast, share of search anticipates market share by “nine to 12 months,” he said – a significant timeframe for marketers to potentially refine strategies.

    Breaking out data for Volkswagen, the auto marque, provided corroboration that sales forecasts based on share of search “are incredibly close to what actually happened,” Binet said.”

    Search considerations

    Much earlier in my career I worked on the Yahoo! Search business, back when the company had its own search technology and sold its own search advertising. One of the things that we found was that while overall search volume could be modelled accurately for the year based just on January’s search data – unexplained search volume peaks still needed to be ironed out by looking at rolling three-month values instead. 

    I found it interesting that Binet’s findings didn’t seem the same degree of ‘peakiness’ and was a much more valuable predictor once the time lag factor between share of search volume and market effects were known. 

    Share of search makes sense from a logical perspective. Many below-the-line activities have been focused on search in terms of aiding SEO to increase share of market opportunity, rather than an explicit appreciation of the impact on the share of search volume and consequently change in market share. My friend James Warren used to talk about public relations and related earned media activities such as organic social media as ‘offline SEO’. This thinking was incorporated into Interpublic’s ‘inline’ concept[xii].

    Future search

    Share of search volume is complicated by a number of factors that are down to changing consumer behaviour. 

    Google’s focus on mobile upended the precision that we could search with and what we could search for, out went Boolean operators that could track down a highly relevant web page from 12 years ago. But we could now find the nearest coffee shop with wi-fi. YouTube[xiii] due to its explanatory content became the second largest search engine globally (excluding China). 

    A good deal of product search has migrated to sites like eBay, Walmart[xiv] and Amazon[xv]. Part of the reason being is that their site search is good enough, they have a wide range of stock and speedy delivery. Amazon also benefits from Amazon Prime which drives customer purchase, but isn’t without controversy[xvi].

    Social and generative AI have unlocked new challengers to Google. Search on social platforms has become the go-to approach for many young people. Google acknowledged this when asked by Business Insider[xvii].

    “we face robust competition from an array of sources, including general and specialized search engines, as well as dedicated apps.”

    The move to social is about tapping what we called back in my Yahoo! days ‘knowledge search’[xviii]. Search startups like Gigabrain have tried to tap into this market by providing a better search function of Reddit forums. 

    Finally, the move towards consumer usage of generative AI tools based on large language models has created new competitors to Google including Perplexity and ChatGPT Search. Google itself has adopted LLMs in its own search offering and seen an increase in both revenue and profit from search advertising[xix].

    Share of model vs. share of search volume

    In order to try and understand new LLM-driven search, innovator agencies like Jellyfish and Deft[xx] have looked towards understanding share of model. Share of model tries to understand how LLMs perceive a given brand, in a similar way to the way SEO rankings held a similar place in search engine marketing. Like SEO, they look to understand whether the brand has sufficient optimisation of their digital properties to feature in recommendations by the models. 

    What share of model doesn’t give us is the consumer insight provided by share of search volume. Share of search volume is consumer behaviour driven and advertising influenced; share of model is algorithmic behaviour driven and training influenced. 


    [i] John Philip Jones profile (United Kingdom) WARC

    [ii] Jones, J.P., (1990) Ad Spending: Maintaining Market Share (United States) Harvard Business Review

    [iii] Jones, J.P. (1995) When Ads Work: New Proof That Advertising Triggers Sales (United States) Jossey Brass

    [iv] Hansen, F., Olsen, J.K. STAS and Other Short Term Advertising Effect Measures (United Kingdom) WARC

    [v] Siu, A. (February 2025) The Honey scandal is a ‘wake-up call’ for the creator industry’s affiliate partnerships

    [vi] (2023) The power of excess share of voice (United Kingdom) Thinkbox

    [vii] Binet, L., Field, P. (2013) The Long and the Short of it: Balancing Short and Long-Term Marketing Strategies (United Kingdom) Institute of Practitioners in Advertising

    [viii] Sharp, B. (2010) How Brands Grow: What Marketers Don’t Know (United Kingdom) Oxford University Press

    [ix] (2020) Share of search can predict market share (United Kingdom) WARC

    [x] Binet, L. (2021) Share of Search (United Kingdom) Les Binet channel on YouTube

    [xi] (2020) Share of search can predict market share (United Kingdom) WARC

    [xii] Warren, J. (2008) Back to school (United Kingdom) PR Week (republished on PR 2.0)

    [xiii] (2010) YouTube Revenue Approaching $1 Billion Per Year [REPORT] (United States) Mashable

    [xiv] Levin, M.R., Lowitz, J.N. (November 2020) Grocery Drives Walmart Online Orders (United States) Consumer Intelligence Research Partners LLC (CIRP)

    [xv] Evans, B. (2023) Retail, search and Amazon’s $40bn ‘advertising’ business (United Kingdom) Benedict Evans

    [xvi] Stoller, M. (2021) Amazon Prime Is an Economy-Distorting Lie (United States) BIG by Matt Stoller

    [xvii] Delouya, S. (2022) Nearly Half of Gen Z Prefers TikTok and Instagram Over Google Search (United States) Business Insider

    [xviii] Carroll, G.M.S. (2021) Yahoo Answers (United Kingdom) renaissance chambara

    [xix] Morris, S. (2025) Alphabet shares gain as Google search boots profits (United Kingdom) Financial Times

    [xx] Crocombe, I. (2025) Share of Model (United Kingdom) Deft

  • April 2025 newsletter

    April 2025 introduction – key to the door (21)

    Welcome to my April 2025 newsletter, this newsletter marks my 21st issue.

    21 marks a transition to full adulthood in various countries, hence ‘keys to the door’ in bingo slang. In Chinese numbers, symbolism is often down to phrases that numbers sound like. 21 sounds like “easily definitely fine” – indicating an auspicious association with the number.

    For some reason this month I have had Bill McClintock’s Motor City Woman on repeat. It’s a mash-up of The Spinners – I’ll be Around, Queensrÿche – Jet City Woman and Steely Dan – Do it Again. It’s a bit of an ear worm – you’re welcome.

    New reader?

    If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here

    Strategic outcomes

    Things I’ve written.

    • Cleaned up copy of an interview I did as a juror for the PHNX Awards. More here.
    • From the challenges faced by Apple Intelligence to drone deliveries and designing in lightness.
    • I thought about how computing tends towards efficiency along the story arc of its history and its likely impact on our use of AI models.

    Books that I have read.

    Currently reading
    • The Leftover Woman by Jean Kwok. The book is a complex thriller. The story is straight forward, but the books covers complex, fraught issues with aplomb from misogyny, the male gaze to the white saviour complex.
    • The Tiger That Isn’t by Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot focused on the use of numbers in the media. But it’s also invaluable for strategists reading and interrogating pre-existing research. As a book is very easy-going and readable. I read it travelling back-and-forth to see the parents.
    • A Spy Alone was written by former MI6 officer Charles Beaumont. I was reminded of the dreary early 1970s of George Smiley’s Britain in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by the tone of the book. However A Spy Alone is alarmingly contemporary, with oblique references to UK infrastructure investments in the UK attached to a hostile foreign power, private sector intelligence, open source intelligence a la Bellingcat, nihilistic entrepreneurs and a thoroughly corrupted body politic. Beaumont’s story features a post cold-war spy ring in Oxford University echoing the cold war Cambridge spy ring. Beaumont touches on real contemporary issues through the classic thriller, in the same way that Mick Herron uses satire.

    Things I have been inspired by.

    Big brand advertising isn’t as digital as we think.

    Trends in TV 2025 by Thinkbox threw up some interesting data points and hypotheses.

    • Advertising is eating retail property. A good deal of search and social advertising gains is not from traditional advertising, but traditional retailing, in place of a real-world shop front. This is primarily carried out by small and medium-sized enterprises. I imagine a lot of this is Chinese direct-to-consumer businesses. 80% of Meta’s revenue is not from the six largest advertising holding companies.
    • Viewership across video platforms both online and offline have stabilised in the UK. (Separately I heard that ITV were getting the same viewership per programme, but it’s been attenuated with the rise of time-shifted content via the online viewership.

    World views

    WARC highlighted research done by Craft Human Intelligence for Channel 4 where they outlined six world views for young adults. While it was couched in terms of ‘gen-z’, I would love to see an ongoing inter-cohort longitudinal study to see how these world views change over time in young people. This would also provide an understanding of it it reflects wider population world views. BBH Labs past work looking at Group Cohesion Score of gen-Z – implies that this is unlikely to be just a generational change but might have a more longitudinal effect across generations to varying extents.

    Anyway back to he six world views outlined:

    • ‘Girl power’ feminists. 99% identified as female. About 21% of their cohort. “While they’re overwhelmingly progressive, their focus tends to be on personal goals rather than macro-level politics. They underindex heavily on engagement with UK politics and society.”
    • ‘Fight for your rights’. 12% of cohort, 60% female, educated and engaged with current affairs. “Although they consider themselves broadly happy, they believe the UK is deeply unfair – but believe that progress is both necessary and achievable.”
    • ‘Dice are loaded’ are 15% of their cohort. 68% female. “Feeling left behind, they perceive themselves to lack control over their future, and are worried about finances, employment, housing, mental health, or physical appearance.”
    • ‘Zero-sum’ thinkers comprise 18% of their cohort. Over-index at higher end of social-economic scale, gender balanced. “…they lean toward authoritarian and radical views on both sides of the political spectrum.”
    • ‘Boys can’t be boys’ are 14% of the cohort and 82% male. Supporters of traditional masculinity.
    • ‘Blank slates’. 20% of their cohort, all of them male. “They aren’t unintelligent or unambitious, but they pay little attention to matters beyond their own, immediate world. While some follow the news, their main focus is on just getting on with life”.

    More here and here.

    FMCG performance

    At the beginning of March, Unilever abruptly replaced its CEO. Hein Schumacher was out, and in the space of a week CFO Fernando Fernandez became CEO. That showed a deep internal dissatisfaction with Unilever’s performance that surprised shareholders AND the business media. Over the past decade Unilever has leaned hard into premium products and influencer marketing.

    “There are 19,000 zip codes in India. There are 5,764 municipalities in Brazil. I want one influencer in each of them,” Fernandez said. “That’s a significant change. It requires a machine of content creation, very different to the one we had in the past . . . ”

    Fernandez wants to lean even harder into influencer marketing. But I thought that there was a delta on this approach given his goal to have higher margin premium brands that are highly desirable.

    “Desirability at scale and marketing activity systems at scale will be the fundamental principles of our marketing strategy”

    Meanwhile Michael Farmer’s newsletter had some datapoints that were very apropos to the Unilever situation.

    “…for the fifty years from 1960 to 2010, the combined FMCG sales of P&G, Unilever, Nestle and Colgate-Palmolive grew at about an 8% compounded annual growth rate per year. The numbers associated with this long-term growth rate are staggering. P&G alone grew from about $1 billion (1960) to $79 billion in 2010. Throughout this period, P&G was the industry’s advocate for the power of advertising, becoming the largest advertiser in the US, with a focus on traditional advertising — digital / social advertising had hardly begun until 2010. Since 2010, with the advent of digital / social advertising, and massive increases in digital / social spend, P&G, Unilever, Nestle and Colgate-Palmolive have grown, collectively, at less than 1% per year, about half the growth rate of the US economy (2.1% per year). They are not the only major advertisers who have grown below GDP rates. At least 20 of the 50 largest advertisers in the US have grown below 2% per year for the past 15 years. Digital and social advertising, of course, have come to dominate the advertising scene since 2010, and it represents, today, about 2/3rds of all advertising spend.”

    Mr Fernandez has quite the Gordian knot to try and solve, one-way or another.

    Automated communications and AI influencers

    Thanks to Stephen Waddington‘s newsletter highlighted a meta-analysis of research papers on the role of automation and generative AI in communications. What’s interesting is the amount of questions that the paper flags, which are key to consideration of these technologies in marketing and advertising. More here.

    LinkedIn performance

    Social Insider has pulled together some benchmarking data on LinkedIn content performance. It helps guide what good looks like and the content types to optimise for on LinkedIn. Register and download here.

    Chart of the month. 

    The FT had some really interesting data points that hinted at a possible longitudinal crisis in various aspects of reasoning and problem solving. There has been few ongoing studies in this area, and it deserves more scrutiny.

    reasoning and problem solving

    In his article Have humans past peak brain power, FT data journalist John Burn-Murdoch makes the case about traits which would support intelligence and innovation from reading, to mathematical reasoning and problem solving have been on a downward trends. The timing of this decline seems to correlate with the rise of the social web.

    If true, over time this may work its way into marketing effectiveness. My best guess would be that rational messages are likely to be less effective in comparison to simple emotional messages with a single-minded intent over time. This should show up in both short term and long term performance. A more cynical view might be that the opportunity for bundling and other pricing complexities could facilitate greater profit margins over time.

    Things I have watched. 

    Akira Kurosawa’s Stray Dog is a film that I can watch several times over despite the film being over 75 years old now. Detective Murakami’s trek through the neighbourhoods of occupation-era Tokyo and all the actors performances are stunning. The storytelling is amazing and there are set pieces in here that are high points in cinema history. I don’t want to say too much more and spoil it for you, if you haven’t already seen it.

    Ghost in the Shell: Standalone Complex – Solid State Society – this is a follow on to the original GiTS manga and anime films touches directly on the challenges faced looking after Japan’s aging society. Central to the story is the apparent kidnapping over time of 20,000 children who can’t remember who their parents are. The plot is up to the usual high standard with government intrigue, technical and societal challenges.

    The Wire series one – I stopped and started watching The Wire. Films better suited my focus at the time. I finally started into series one this month. The ensemble cast are brilliant. The show is now 22 years old, yet it has aged surprisingly well. While technology works miracles, the slow methodical approach to building a case is always the same.

    How Much Does Your Building Weigh, Mr Foster – is a fantastic documentary covering the career of architect Sir Norman Foster. I remember watching it at the ICA when it originally came out and enjoyed watching it again on DVD. Foster brings a similar approach to architecture that Colin Chapman brought to his Lotus cars. When we are now thinking about efficiency and sustainability, their viewpoints feel very forward-thinking in nature.

    Useful tools.

    Fixing the iOS Mail app

    You know something is up when media outlets are writing to you with instructions on how they can remain visible in your inbox. The problem is due to Apple’s revamp of the iPhone’s Mail.app as part of its update to iOS 18.2.

    So how do you do this?

    Open Mail.app and you can see the categorised folders at the top of your screen, under the search bar.

    Find each tab where an a given email has been put. Open the latest edition. Tap the upper right hand corner. Select ‘Categorise Sender’. Choose ‘Primary’ to make sure future emails from this sender are in your main inbox view.

    That’s going to get old pretty soon. My alternative is to toggle between views as it makes sense. Apple’s inbox groupings are handy when you want to quickly find items you can delete quickly. Otherwise the single view makes sense.

    Fixing mail app

    Inspiration for strategists

    Questions are probably the most important tool for strategists. 100 questions offers inspiration so you can focus on the right ones to ask for a given time.

    The sales pitch.

    I have been worked on the interrogation process and building responses to a couple of client new business briefs for friends (Red Robin Ventures and Craft Associates) and am now working a new brand and creative strategy engagement as part of an internal creative agency at Google.

    now taking bookings

    If you’re thinking about strategy needs in Q4 (October onwards) – keep me in mind; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me on YunoJuno and LinkedIn; get my email from Spamty to drop me a line.

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy

    The End.

    Ok this is the end of my April 2025 newsletter, I hope to see you all back here again in a month. Be excellent to each other and onward into spring, and enjoy the May bank holidays.

    Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.

    Get in touch if there is anything that you’d like to recommend for the newsletter.