Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • 20th anniversary: A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace

    Back on February 9, 1996, John Perry Barlow wrote his declaration of of the independence of cyberspace. The declaration pointed out the folly of trying to govern something thought to be virtually ungovernable at the time.
    Cyberspace and is smart fusion really smart ?
    Barlow first came to prominence writing lyrics for The Grateful Dead. His ethos came from the libertarian do your own thing ethic that underpinned much of the hippy movement. This probably come more naturally to Barlow than other people having grown up on a cattle ranch and being the son of the Republican politician.

    By the time he wrote the about the independence of cyberspace; he was already had published extensively about the internet. He was on the board of directors of The WELL – an online community that sprang out of Stewart Brand’s back to the land influence catalogue of useful things The Whole Earth Catalog (The WELL stands for The Whole Earth eLectronic Link). He contributed to Wired magazine (founded by aging hippies Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand), Barlow’s essay Economy of Ideas published in the March 1994 issue provides a clear view of the thinking that prompted him to write the declaration. He had already founded The Electronic Frontier Foundation with by John Gilmore and Mitch Kapor in response to a series of actions by law enforcement agencies that led them to conclude that the authorities were gravely uninformed about emerging forms of online communication.

    The declaration was a reactionary document, brought upon by the 1996 Telecommunications Act in the US. The act eventually resulted in consolidation of US media ownership.

    I suspect the similarities in style between the declaration and the Doc Searl’s et al later Cluetrain Manifesto are an intentional nod to Barlow on cyberspace.

    A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace

    by John Perry Barlow <barlow@eff.org>

    Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You are not welcome among us. You have no sovereignty where we gather.

    We have no elected government, nor are we likely to have one, so I address you with no greater authority than that with which liberty itself always speaks. I declare the global social space we are building to be naturally independent of the tyrannies you seek to impose on us. You have no moral right to rule us nor do you possess any methods of enforcement we have true reason to fear.

    Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed. You have neither solicited nor received ours. We did not invite you. You do not know us, nor do you know our world. Cyberspace does not lie within your borders. Do not think that you can build it, as though it were a public construction project. You cannot. It is an act of nature and it grows itself through our collective actions.

    You have not engaged in our great and gathering conversation, nor did you create the wealth of our marketplaces. You do not know our culture, our ethics, or the unwritten codes that already provide our society more order than could be obtained by any of your impositions.

    You claim there are problems among us that you need to solve. You use this claim as an excuse to invade our precincts. Many of these problems don’t exist. Where there are real conflicts, where there are wrongs, we will identify them and address them by our means. We are forming our own Social Contract . This governance will arise according to the conditions of our world, not yours. Our world is different.

    Cyberspace consists of transactions, relationships, and thought itself, arrayed like a standing wave in the web of our communications. Ours is a world that is both everywhere and nowhere, but it is not where bodies live.

    We are creating a world that all may enter without privilege or prejudice accorded by race, economic power, military force, or station of birth.

    We are creating a world where anyone, anywhere may express his or her beliefs, no matter how singular, without fear of being coerced into silence or conformity.

    Your legal concepts of property, expression, identity, movement, and context do not apply to us. They are all based on matter, and there is no matter here.

    Our identities have no bodies, so, unlike you, we cannot obtain order by physical coercion. We believe that from ethics, enlightened self-interest, and the commonweal, our governance will emerge . Our identities may be distributed across many of your jurisdictions. The only law that all our constituent cultures would generally recognize is the Golden Rule. We hope we will be able to build our particular solutions on that basis. But we cannot accept the solutions you are attempting to impose.

    In the United States, you have today created a law, the Telecommunications Reform Act, which repudiates your own Constitution and insults the dreams of Jefferson, Washington, Mill, Madison, DeToqueville, and Brandeis. These dreams must now be born anew in us.

    You are terrified of your own children, since they are natives in a world where you will always be immigrants. Because you fear them, you entrust your bureaucracies with the parental responsibilities you are too cowardly to confront yourselves. In our world, all the sentiments and expressions of humanity, from the debasing to the angelic, are parts of a seamless whole, the global conversation of bits. We cannot separate the air that chokes from the air upon which wings beat.

    In China, Germany, France, Russia, Singapore, Italy and the United States, you are trying to ward off the virus of liberty by erecting guard posts at the frontiers of Cyberspace. These may keep out the contagion for a small time, but they will not work in a world that will soon be blanketed in bit-bearing media.

    Your increasingly obsolete information industries would perpetuate themselves by proposing laws, in America and elsewhere, that claim to own speech itself throughout the world. These laws would declare ideas to be another industrial product, no more noble than pig iron. In our world, whatever the human mind may create can be reproduced and distributed infinitely at no cost. The global conveyance of thought no longer requires your factories to accomplish.

    These increasingly hostile and colonial measures place us in the same position as those previous lovers of freedom and self-determination who had to reject the authorities of distant, uninformed powers. We must declare our virtual selves immune to your sovereignty, even as we continue to consent to your rule over our bodies. We will spread ourselves across the Planet so that no one can arrest our thoughts.

    We will create a civilization of the Mind in Cyberspace. May it be more humane and fair than the world your governments have made before.

    Davos, Switzerland

    February 8, 1996

    So two decades later, how does Barlow’s declaration stand in comparison that what’s actually happened? At first blush not very well. The digital economy outside China is dominated by an oligarchy of four main players: Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google.

    Scott Galloway’s presentation at DLD conference this year, highlights the winner take all nature of the online world. This is partially down to the nature of the online platform. Amazon grew to critical mass in the US as for a critical amount of time buyers didn’t need to pay state sales tax until state legislation started to catch up.

    Zuckerberg and his peers marked a changing of the guard in Silicon Valley as yuppies took over from the the hippies.

    Inside China there is a similar state-directed oligarchy of Alibaba, Tencent, Netease and Sina.

    The oligarchy impact has been most pronounced in Europe, where consumer demand and a lack of effective competition saw Google go to 90+ percent in market share across the EU, when the US market share was less than 70 percent at the time.

    Futurist and science fiction author Bruce Sterling summed it up rather well:

    “Globalization” is over for 2016. We have entered an era of Internet Counter-Revolution. The events of 1989 feel almost as distant as those of 1789. The globalizing, flat-world, small-pieces-loosely-joined Internet is behind us, it’s history. The elite geek Internet could not resist those repeated tsunamis of incoming users.

    It turned out that normal people like the “social” in social media a lot better than they ever liked the raw potential of media technology. In Russia and China in 2016, digital media is an arm of the state. Internet has zero revolutionary potential within those societies, but all kinds of potential for exported cyberwar. The Chinese police spy and firewall model, much scoffed at in the 1990s, is now the dominant paradigm. The Chinese have prospered with their authoritarian approach, while those who bought into borderless friction-free data have been immiserated by the ultra-rich.

    In the USA it’s an older American story: the apparent freedom of Henry Ford’s personal flivver has briskly yielded to the new Detroit Big Five of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and, in last place, Microsoft.

    In 2016, everything that looks like digital innovation, “big data,” “the cloud,” the “Internet of Things,” are actually promotional slogans that play into the hands of the GAFAM “Big Five.” Anybody who lacks broadband and a mobile OS is in deadly peril, especially the digital old-school likes of IBM, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard, Oracle… and the hapless TV networks, whose median viewer age is now in the 60s.

    The GAFAM Big Five, the “Stacks,” will turn their wrath on the victims closest to them, well before they complete their lunge for control of cars and thermostats. However, their destiny is obvious. The rebels of the 1990s are America’s new mega-conglomerates. Google is “Alphabet,” Apple pruned the “computer” from its name, Amazon is the Washington Post. In 2016, that’s how it is, and in 2017, 189, 19, much more so.

    So the not-evil guys are the new evil guys, but don’t be scared by this. It’s quite like watching the 1960s Space Age crumble from giant-leaps-for-mankind to launching low-orbit gizmos for profit. It’s comprehensible, it can be dealt with. Sure, it’s tragic if your head was in the noosphere, but if you have any historical awareness of previous industrial revolutions, this is really easy to understand. It’s already in your pocket and purse, it’s written on every screen you look at It could scarcely be more obvious.

    Yes, Internet Counterrevolution is coming, much of it is here already, and it’s properly considered a big deal, but it’s not permanent. This too shall pass.

    And this post hasn’t even touched on how government has looked to plug itself into all facets of online life in the interest of discovering terrorist plots, organised crime or paedophile rings. Assaults on cyberspace sovereignty are numerous, from Pakistan’s special editable version of YouTube to several governments looking for cryptographic backdoors.

    At DLD 2016, you have a German politician talking about the mechanism of how the government needed to rollback citizen rights to privacy to give German start-ups a chance. In this winner takes all world, the beneficiaries are likely to be Google, Facebook Amazon and Microsoft rather than a local champion.

    I started on this post in mid-January and scheduled it to go out on February 8, 2016. danah boyd also published on the declaration of Cyberspace and I recommend you go and check out here. More privacy related content here.

    More information
    Economy of Ideas | Wired 
    The Cluetrain Manifesto
    A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace | EFF
    Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016 | The WELL
    Pakistan lifts ban on YouTube after launch of own version | The Daily Star
    John Perry Barlow 2.0 | Reason

  • The billion strong services

    There was two announcements of services that had passed the billion strong user mark.  There was a comparison between Gmail’s slow and steady approach versus Whatsapp’s swift rise.
    messaging services

    Gmail was born as a desktop service first. It started just as web 2.0 was starting to take off. The service was invitation only for almost three years, before becoming generally available.  At the time its 1GB of storage for free was revolutionary. A year later they increased the storage to 2GB. By comparison I was paying £60 a year for an IMAP mail account that was separate to my ISP. Hotmail would give you just 4MB of storage in your email.

    Gmail set the standard for our expectations of email. Now email accounts will accept 25MB attachments – a standard set by Gmail. My corporate email account has a 1GB capacity copying Gmail at launch.

    Yahoo! had to compete and responded with ‘unlimited storage’ after Gmail became generally available. By this time Gmail storage had grown to 2.8GB and Live.com gave 2GB. In the space of under three years Gmail had grown to 51 million users.

    This was still an era when smartphones weren’t ubiquitous in the same way that they are now. I was fortunate to have mobile email access on my Nokia and Palm smartphones around this time. BlackBerry devices were a business tool, as was Windows Mobile. Data was more expensive and slower than it is now. Although Yahoo! Messenger was available on my phone it was slow. Skype worked best as an indicator of presence on mobile devices.

    Smartphone ubiquity through Android and iOS was an enabler for email adoption. But Gmail didn’t receive the same boost from it that Whatsapp did.

    If you didn’t have a Gmail account you could still send and receive emails to Gmail account holders. Early adopters of smartphones are likely to have already had an email account. So they would increase user engagement through accessiblity. But they would not drive a similar growth in new accounts.

    Whatsapp benefited from being a closed service – you can’t message a WeChat account. Also it rode smartphones as an accelerator, it didn’t have a legacy desktop user base.

    Another factor is that its competitors managed to monetise their services earlier. This was at the expense of international adoption. An extreme example of this is Korea’s KakaoTalk.

    KakaoTalk has built an absolute ubiquity in South Korea. It has continued to growth beyond 90 per cent of Korean mobile users. Profitability has increased, new services launched; whilst global user numbers declined.

    WhatsApp has grown fastest towards its billion strong user base in markets that are hard to monetise. It is big in Latin America, Africa and South Asia. It is only starting to build in features for brands.

    Not all users are equal, many present little business opportunity for internet companies. I remember when Yahoo! was rolling out the ‘unlimited’ storage email account; it was actively discussed only providing the feature in developed market accounts rather than all users. The billion strong user base is an interesting measure, but requires further interrogation. More WhatsApp related content here.

    More information
    Yahoo Mail Announces Unlimited Storage
    A Comparison of Live Hotmail, Gmail and Yahoo Mail | Techcrunch
    Email and webmail statistics | Email Marketing Reports
    Gmail Now With 1 Billion Monthly Active Users, Reports Google Chief Sundar Pichai – Tech Times
    WhatsApp has a billion users, and it got there way quicker than Gmail did
    You May Not Use WhatsApp, But the Rest of the World Sure Does | Wired
    Tencent Service Offerings (Q3, 2015) – PDF
    duamkakao 1st Quarter 2015 results – PDF
    duamkakao 2nd Quarter 2015 results – PDF
    Yahoo to partner with Yelp on local searches – Digit
    A Brief History of Email – Google Answers
    Gmail Now Has 900M Active Users, 75% On Mobile | Techcrunch

  • Twitter troubles

    You can read elsewhere about Twitter troubles, I have linked to some of the best analyses I found out there at the bottom of this article.
    Twitter
    If you don’t have time to go through the the analyses around Twitter troubles, here’s the ‘CliffsNotes’ version:

    • Management turnover. Three different heads of engineering in 18 months, five different product leads in the past two years, three CFOs in 18 months and 2 COOs (mainly because the role was left vacant for over 12 months)
    • Growth in user numbers has been stagnant in the U.S.. The three published quarters of 2015 showed U.S. active users at 66 million. The last two quarters of 2014 were steady at 64 million
    • Growth in user numbers globally has been a modest 11 percent. Growth outside the U.S. was just 13% year on year in quarter three of 2015

    James Whatley and Marshall Manson called the user number plateau ‘Twitter Zero’.

    There have been product-related Twitter troubles:

    • The ‘Promoted Moments’ advertising option is confusing to look at
    • Will it, won’t move beyond 140 characters
    • Algorithmic filtering of the timeline
    • Utility of the news feed is becoming diminished for the digerati
    • Likely reduction in user engagement
    • Likely uptake in bot content publication
    • Inability to deal with community issues like #Gamergate
    • Twitter’s auto-playing videos are barely more than a rounding error in the battle between YouTube and Facebook for video supremacy

    What less people are talking about is what Twitter troubles means beyond Twitter.

    Advertising purchases are a near-zero sum game. Facebook and other high growth native advertising platforms gain from Twitter troubles. But for marketers this is not all good news. Facebook is poor at giving marketers actionable insights and intelligence. There is no Facebook firehouse of data. Facebook only provides aggregated data.

    The OTT (Over The Top) messaging platforms (WhatsApp, WeChat, LINE, KakaoTalk, Kik) are data black holes. Commercial dashboards on some accounts allow you to see how your account is doing. There is no insight of what is happening across accounts. There is no measure of influence beyond follower numbers and click-throughs.

    Twitter troubles with declining relevance, has a direct effect on social media monitoring and analytics platforms.

    Social media analysis of Twitter data is widespread. From consumer insights / passive market research to brand measurement and financial trading models.

    I had seen data which showed a direct correlation between brand related market research conducted by respected market research firms and social media analysis using Twitter data. The implication of this was that Twitter data could provide a more cost effective alternative.

    All of these research benefits are moot if Twitter is in decline or becoming irrelevant.

    Twitter data has its use beyond market research. It is the source of breaking news for the western media. Twitter’s firehouse also goes into making smarter phones. Apple’s Siri sources Twitter content to answer news-related requests.
    Siri using Twitter as news
    A poor performing Twitter has implications across the tech sector beyond online advertising. There are no obvious substitute solutions for its data waiting in the wings.

    Perhaps Twitter’s earning’s call on February 10 will give a hint of improvements at the company. But I wouldn’t bet on it. More related content here.

    More information

    Twitter Inc. quarterly results
    How Facebook Squashed Twitter – Stratechery by Ben Thompson
    Can Twitter turn stagnation into progress, or has it hit the wall? | Technology | The Guardian
    Twitter’s Fiscal 2015: Up, Flat, And Down | TechCrunch
    Twitter is teetering because it has turned into one big pyramid scheme | Andrew Smith
    Twitter Might Ditch The 140-Character Limit: What This Means For Marketers | SocialTimes
    Daily Report: The Tough Realities of a Twitter Turnaround – NYTimes.com
    Next Twitter boss faces complex challenges, says departing Dick Costolo | The Guardian
    Twitter data show that a few powerful users can control the conversation – Quartz
    Twitter’s Jakarta office is now open. Here are 6 reasons why Costolo is focusing on Indonesia | Techinasia
    Inside Twitter’s plan to fix itself
    How efficient is Twitter’s Business Model?
    Black Widow | Dustin Curtis – interesting analysis of Twitter and a warning about APIs

  • PrivaTegrity: the flawed model of distributed keys

    Dave Chaum’s PrivaTegrity – an idea to to try and balance between state actors demand for internet sovereignty and the defacto end of citizen privacy. Whilst also addressing the need to deal with emotive causes such as terrorism, paedophile rings and organised crime got a lot of attention from Wired magazine.

    Backdoors are considered problematic by privacy advocates and seem to be a panacea for governments who all want unrestricted access.
    Yesterday evening on a bus stop in Bow
    The principle behind PrivaTegrity is that there would be a backdoor, but the back door could only be opened with a nine-part key. The parts would be distributed internationally to try and reduce the ability of a single state actor to force access.

    However it has a number of flaws to it:

    • It assumes that bad people will use a  cryptographic system with a known backdoor. They won’t they will look elsewhere for the technology
    • It has a known backdoor, there is no guarantee that it can’t be opened in a way that the developers hadn’t thought of
    • Nine people will decide what’s evil
    • If you’re a state actor or a coalition of state actors, you know that you have nine targets to go after in order to obtain access by hook-or-by-crook. It was only Edward Snowden who showed us how extraordinarily powerful companies where bent to the will of the US government. The UK government is about to grant itself extra-territorial legal powers to compel access. There is no reason why a form of extra-ordinary rendition couldn’t be used to compel access, rather like Sauron in The Lord of the Rings bending the ring bearers to his will. Think of it as Operation Neptune Spear meets a Dungeons & Dragon quest held at a black site. Even if the US wouldn’t consider it a viable option, who is to say that other countries with capability wouldn’t do it. That group of countries with sufficient capability would likely include: UK, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, People’s Republic of China, Russian Federation, France, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Israel. All that these countries would need is intent

    More information
    The Father of Online Anonymity Has a Plan to End the Crypto War | WIRED
    Privategrity

    More privacy related content here.

  • SEO marketer crime + more

    SEO Marketer Sentenced to More than Three Years in Federal Prison for Extorting Money from a Local Merger and Acquisitions Firm | Department of Justice – just wow. Who would have thought that an SEO Marketer would be sent down for a crime that sounds more like a mafiosi. You’ll never look at an SEO marketer in the same way again

    The Many Ways Of WeChat: How Messaging Is Eating The World | TechCrunch – quite a nice primer on WeChat.

    Microsoft’s Cortana Gets Baked Into Cyanogen’s Forked Version Of Android | TechCrunch – this should give Google cause for concern

    SMARTPHONES: Hungry Huawei Eyes US Smartphone Market – Huawei’s move into the US smartphone market looks like a logical and necessary step to consolidating its place as a top global brand, but will require years of major investment to succeed.

    Why the 2012 non-Retina MacBook Pro still sells – Marco.org – The better question isn’t why anyone still buys the 101, but why the rest of the MacBook lineup is still less compelling for the 101’s buyers after almost four years, and whether Apple will sell and support the 101 for long enough for newer MacBook models to become compelling, economical replacements

    Circus Ponies – great Alphabet Inc parody by defunct Mac developer

    Sennheiser’s 3D audio will finally make VR complete – Engadget – the problem is about getting to a standard, immersive sound options have been around for a while

    Nextbit’s cloud-savvy smartphone ships on February 16th – Engadget – interesting cloud based focus, reminds me of the Danger Sidekick in that respect

    Yahoo prepping to lay off 10% or more of workforce – Business Insider – you can’t cut yourself to growth

    WeChat Unveils New Calling Feature to Start 2016 – Thatsmags.com – To cap off the holiday season and ring-ring-ring in the New Year, WeChat has released a new calling feature that allows users to call mobile and landline phones around the world.

    I, Cringely 2016 Prediction #1 – Beginning of the end for engineering workstations – I, Cringely – Centrix model for graphical computing. It depends on network latency, resiliency and redundancy. So it may not work in many markets

    Casio’s First Android Wear Watch Will Be Ruggedized And Have Up To A Month Of Battery Life & Razer Nabu Watch – Digital Watch with Smart Functions – closer to the minimum spec I would look at, if they nail 200 metres water resistance, a large G-Shock style form factor and a compelling use case I would re-examine my smart watch usage

    NSA hacked two key encryption chips | TechEye – bad news for the likes of Gemalto

    The Huawei Mate 8 Review – Anandtech – incremental rather than revolutionary changes, interesting how Qualcomm takes a pasting in the article comments

    Qualcomm Pushes Snapdragon Chip Beyond Phones | WSJ – maturation of smartphone market forces expansion (paywall)

    Daring Fireball: Samsung Galaxy Tab Pro S | DaringFireball – move to Windows rather than Android – Surface competitor. This probably says a lot about Android on the desktop

    Brian Eno Tells The Origin Story For Ambient Music » Synthtopia – Eno on the origins of ambient

    IMF Chief Economist’s 2016 Warning: Watch Out for China and Emerging-Market Volatility | WSJ – add to this interest rate rises in the developed world and you have a toxic mix of circumstances

    richard sapper (1932-2015) DesignBoom – Richard Sapper was the designer behind Lenovo and before that IBM. The ThinkPad was influenced by bento boxes. You had the butterfly keyboard of the ThinkPad 701 and titanium chassis before the famous PowerBook