Category: ideas | 想法 | 생각 | 考える

Ideas were at the at the heart of why I started this blog. One of the first posts that I wrote there being a sweet spot in the complexity of products based on the ideas of Dan Greer. I wrote about the first online election fought by Howard Dean, which now looks like a precursor to the Obama and Trump presidential bids.

I articulated a belief I still have in the benefits of USB thumb drives as the Thumb Drive Gospel. The odd rant about IT, a reflection on the power of loose social networks, thoughts on internet freedom – an idea that that I have come back to touch on numerous times over the years as the online environment has changed.

Many of the ideas that I discussed came from books like Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy.

I was able to provide an insider perspective on Brad Garlinghouse’s infamous Peanut Butter-gate debacle. It says a lot about the lack of leadership that Garlinghouse didn’t get fired for what was a power play. Garlinghouse has gone on to become CEO of Ripple.

I built on initial thoughts by Stephen Davies on the intersection between online and public relations with a particular focus on definition to try and come up with unifying ideas.

Or why thought leadership is a less useful idea than demonstrating authority of a particular subject.

I touched on various retailing ideas including the massive expansion in private label products with grades of ‘premiumness’.

I’ve also spent a good deal of time thinking about the role of technology to separate us from the hoi polloi. But this was about active choice rather than an algorithmic filter bubble.

 

  • The billion strong services

    There was two announcements of services that had passed the billion strong user mark.  There was a comparison between Gmail’s slow and steady approach versus Whatsapp’s swift rise.
    messaging services

    Gmail was born as a desktop service first. It started just as web 2.0 was starting to take off. The service was invitation only for almost three years, before becoming generally available.  At the time its 1GB of storage for free was revolutionary. A year later they increased the storage to 2GB. By comparison I was paying £60 a year for an IMAP mail account that was separate to my ISP. Hotmail would give you just 4MB of storage in your email.

    Gmail set the standard for our expectations of email. Now email accounts will accept 25MB attachments – a standard set by Gmail. My corporate email account has a 1GB capacity copying Gmail at launch.

    Yahoo! had to compete and responded with ‘unlimited storage’ after Gmail became generally available. By this time Gmail storage had grown to 2.8GB and Live.com gave 2GB. In the space of under three years Gmail had grown to 51 million users.

    This was still an era when smartphones weren’t ubiquitous in the same way that they are now. I was fortunate to have mobile email access on my Nokia and Palm smartphones around this time. BlackBerry devices were a business tool, as was Windows Mobile. Data was more expensive and slower than it is now. Although Yahoo! Messenger was available on my phone it was slow. Skype worked best as an indicator of presence on mobile devices.

    Smartphone ubiquity through Android and iOS was an enabler for email adoption. But Gmail didn’t receive the same boost from it that Whatsapp did.

    If you didn’t have a Gmail account you could still send and receive emails to Gmail account holders. Early adopters of smartphones are likely to have already had an email account. So they would increase user engagement through accessiblity. But they would not drive a similar growth in new accounts.

    Whatsapp benefited from being a closed service – you can’t message a WeChat account. Also it rode smartphones as an accelerator, it didn’t have a legacy desktop user base.

    Another factor is that its competitors managed to monetise their services earlier. This was at the expense of international adoption. An extreme example of this is Korea’s KakaoTalk.

    KakaoTalk has built an absolute ubiquity in South Korea. It has continued to growth beyond 90 per cent of Korean mobile users. Profitability has increased, new services launched; whilst global user numbers declined.

    WhatsApp has grown fastest towards its billion strong user base in markets that are hard to monetise. It is big in Latin America, Africa and South Asia. It is only starting to build in features for brands.

    Not all users are equal, many present little business opportunity for internet companies. I remember when Yahoo! was rolling out the ‘unlimited’ storage email account; it was actively discussed only providing the feature in developed market accounts rather than all users. The billion strong user base is an interesting measure, but requires further interrogation. More WhatsApp related content here.

    More information
    Yahoo Mail Announces Unlimited Storage
    A Comparison of Live Hotmail, Gmail and Yahoo Mail | Techcrunch
    Email and webmail statistics | Email Marketing Reports
    Gmail Now With 1 Billion Monthly Active Users, Reports Google Chief Sundar Pichai – Tech Times
    WhatsApp has a billion users, and it got there way quicker than Gmail did
    You May Not Use WhatsApp, But the Rest of the World Sure Does | Wired
    Tencent Service Offerings (Q3, 2015) – PDF
    duamkakao 1st Quarter 2015 results – PDF
    duamkakao 2nd Quarter 2015 results – PDF
    Yahoo to partner with Yelp on local searches – Digit
    A Brief History of Email – Google Answers
    Gmail Now Has 900M Active Users, 75% On Mobile | Techcrunch

  • Twitter troubles

    You can read elsewhere about Twitter troubles, I have linked to some of the best analyses I found out there at the bottom of this article.
    Twitter
    If you don’t have time to go through the the analyses around Twitter troubles, here’s the ‘CliffsNotes’ version:

    • Management turnover. Three different heads of engineering in 18 months, five different product leads in the past two years, three CFOs in 18 months and 2 COOs (mainly because the role was left vacant for over 12 months)
    • Growth in user numbers has been stagnant in the U.S.. The three published quarters of 2015 showed U.S. active users at 66 million. The last two quarters of 2014 were steady at 64 million
    • Growth in user numbers globally has been a modest 11 percent. Growth outside the U.S. was just 13% year on year in quarter three of 2015

    James Whatley and Marshall Manson called the user number plateau ‘Twitter Zero’.

    There have been product-related Twitter troubles:

    • The ‘Promoted Moments’ advertising option is confusing to look at
    • Will it, won’t move beyond 140 characters
    • Algorithmic filtering of the timeline
    • Utility of the news feed is becoming diminished for the digerati
    • Likely reduction in user engagement
    • Likely uptake in bot content publication
    • Inability to deal with community issues like #Gamergate
    • Twitter’s auto-playing videos are barely more than a rounding error in the battle between YouTube and Facebook for video supremacy

    What less people are talking about is what Twitter troubles means beyond Twitter.

    Advertising purchases are a near-zero sum game. Facebook and other high growth native advertising platforms gain from Twitter troubles. But for marketers this is not all good news. Facebook is poor at giving marketers actionable insights and intelligence. There is no Facebook firehouse of data. Facebook only provides aggregated data.

    The OTT (Over The Top) messaging platforms (WhatsApp, WeChat, LINE, KakaoTalk, Kik) are data black holes. Commercial dashboards on some accounts allow you to see how your account is doing. There is no insight of what is happening across accounts. There is no measure of influence beyond follower numbers and click-throughs.

    Twitter troubles with declining relevance, has a direct effect on social media monitoring and analytics platforms.

    Social media analysis of Twitter data is widespread. From consumer insights / passive market research to brand measurement and financial trading models.

    I had seen data which showed a direct correlation between brand related market research conducted by respected market research firms and social media analysis using Twitter data. The implication of this was that Twitter data could provide a more cost effective alternative.

    All of these research benefits are moot if Twitter is in decline or becoming irrelevant.

    Twitter data has its use beyond market research. It is the source of breaking news for the western media. Twitter’s firehouse also goes into making smarter phones. Apple’s Siri sources Twitter content to answer news-related requests.
    Siri using Twitter as news
    A poor performing Twitter has implications across the tech sector beyond online advertising. There are no obvious substitute solutions for its data waiting in the wings.

    Perhaps Twitter’s earning’s call on February 10 will give a hint of improvements at the company. But I wouldn’t bet on it. More related content here.

    More information

    Twitter Inc. quarterly results
    How Facebook Squashed Twitter – Stratechery by Ben Thompson
    Can Twitter turn stagnation into progress, or has it hit the wall? | Technology | The Guardian
    Twitter’s Fiscal 2015: Up, Flat, And Down | TechCrunch
    Twitter is teetering because it has turned into one big pyramid scheme | Andrew Smith
    Twitter Might Ditch The 140-Character Limit: What This Means For Marketers | SocialTimes
    Daily Report: The Tough Realities of a Twitter Turnaround – NYTimes.com
    Next Twitter boss faces complex challenges, says departing Dick Costolo | The Guardian
    Twitter data show that a few powerful users can control the conversation – Quartz
    Twitter’s Jakarta office is now open. Here are 6 reasons why Costolo is focusing on Indonesia | Techinasia
    Inside Twitter’s plan to fix itself
    How efficient is Twitter’s Business Model?
    Black Widow | Dustin Curtis – interesting analysis of Twitter and a warning about APIs

  • PrivaTegrity: the flawed model of distributed keys

    Dave Chaum’s PrivaTegrity – an idea to to try and balance between state actors demand for internet sovereignty and the defacto end of citizen privacy. Whilst also addressing the need to deal with emotive causes such as terrorism, paedophile rings and organised crime got a lot of attention from Wired magazine.

    Backdoors are considered problematic by privacy advocates and seem to be a panacea for governments who all want unrestricted access.
    Yesterday evening on a bus stop in Bow
    The principle behind PrivaTegrity is that there would be a backdoor, but the back door could only be opened with a nine-part key. The parts would be distributed internationally to try and reduce the ability of a single state actor to force access.

    However it has a number of flaws to it:

    • It assumes that bad people will use a  cryptographic system with a known backdoor. They won’t they will look elsewhere for the technology
    • It has a known backdoor, there is no guarantee that it can’t be opened in a way that the developers hadn’t thought of
    • Nine people will decide what’s evil
    • If you’re a state actor or a coalition of state actors, you know that you have nine targets to go after in order to obtain access by hook-or-by-crook. It was only Edward Snowden who showed us how extraordinarily powerful companies where bent to the will of the US government. The UK government is about to grant itself extra-territorial legal powers to compel access. There is no reason why a form of extra-ordinary rendition couldn’t be used to compel access, rather like Sauron in The Lord of the Rings bending the ring bearers to his will. Think of it as Operation Neptune Spear meets a Dungeons & Dragon quest held at a black site. Even if the US wouldn’t consider it a viable option, who is to say that other countries with capability wouldn’t do it. That group of countries with sufficient capability would likely include: UK, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, People’s Republic of China, Russian Federation, France, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Israel. All that these countries would need is intent

    More information
    The Father of Online Anonymity Has a Plan to End the Crypto War | WIRED
    Privategrity

    More privacy related content here.

  • SEO marketer crime + more

    SEO Marketer Sentenced to More than Three Years in Federal Prison for Extorting Money from a Local Merger and Acquisitions Firm | Department of Justice – just wow. Who would have thought that an SEO Marketer would be sent down for a crime that sounds more like a mafiosi. You’ll never look at an SEO marketer in the same way again

    The Many Ways Of WeChat: How Messaging Is Eating The World | TechCrunch – quite a nice primer on WeChat.

    Microsoft’s Cortana Gets Baked Into Cyanogen’s Forked Version Of Android | TechCrunch – this should give Google cause for concern

    SMARTPHONES: Hungry Huawei Eyes US Smartphone Market – Huawei’s move into the US smartphone market looks like a logical and necessary step to consolidating its place as a top global brand, but will require years of major investment to succeed.

    Why the 2012 non-Retina MacBook Pro still sells – Marco.org – The better question isn’t why anyone still buys the 101, but why the rest of the MacBook lineup is still less compelling for the 101’s buyers after almost four years, and whether Apple will sell and support the 101 for long enough for newer MacBook models to become compelling, economical replacements

    Circus Ponies – great Alphabet Inc parody by defunct Mac developer

    Sennheiser’s 3D audio will finally make VR complete – Engadget – the problem is about getting to a standard, immersive sound options have been around for a while

    Nextbit’s cloud-savvy smartphone ships on February 16th – Engadget – interesting cloud based focus, reminds me of the Danger Sidekick in that respect

    Yahoo prepping to lay off 10% or more of workforce – Business Insider – you can’t cut yourself to growth

    WeChat Unveils New Calling Feature to Start 2016 – Thatsmags.com – To cap off the holiday season and ring-ring-ring in the New Year, WeChat has released a new calling feature that allows users to call mobile and landline phones around the world.

    I, Cringely 2016 Prediction #1 – Beginning of the end for engineering workstations – I, Cringely – Centrix model for graphical computing. It depends on network latency, resiliency and redundancy. So it may not work in many markets

    Casio’s First Android Wear Watch Will Be Ruggedized And Have Up To A Month Of Battery Life & Razer Nabu Watch – Digital Watch with Smart Functions – closer to the minimum spec I would look at, if they nail 200 metres water resistance, a large G-Shock style form factor and a compelling use case I would re-examine my smart watch usage

    NSA hacked two key encryption chips | TechEye – bad news for the likes of Gemalto

    The Huawei Mate 8 Review – Anandtech – incremental rather than revolutionary changes, interesting how Qualcomm takes a pasting in the article comments

    Qualcomm Pushes Snapdragon Chip Beyond Phones | WSJ – maturation of smartphone market forces expansion (paywall)

    Daring Fireball: Samsung Galaxy Tab Pro S | DaringFireball – move to Windows rather than Android – Surface competitor. This probably says a lot about Android on the desktop

    Brian Eno Tells The Origin Story For Ambient Music » Synthtopia – Eno on the origins of ambient

    IMF Chief Economist’s 2016 Warning: Watch Out for China and Emerging-Market Volatility | WSJ – add to this interest rate rises in the developed world and you have a toxic mix of circumstances

    richard sapper (1932-2015) DesignBoom – Richard Sapper was the designer behind Lenovo and before that IBM. The ThinkPad was influenced by bento boxes. You had the butterfly keyboard of the ThinkPad 701 and titanium chassis before the famous PowerBook

  • The internet of heavier things

    I started to think about the internet of heavier things after I spent a bit of time with my Dad. We talked about work, engineering stuff in general and technology in general.
    IMGP0606.JPG
    My Dad has a pragmatic approach to technology, it’s ok so long as it fills three distinct criteria:

    • It’s useful
    • It’s efficient in what it does and how you use it
    • It doesn’t get in the way of product serviceability

    The last point is probably something that we tend to think about least, but my Dad considers it as he is a time served mechanical fitter.  Just prior to Christmas one of the gears went in my parents Singer sowing machine. The machine has been in the family for about 50 years. I managed to buy the relevant cog from a website for just under a tenner.

    Contrast this with most electronic goods where you tend not to be able to replace products at a component level. Even if you did, trying to find 50 year old standard catalogue processors, let alone a custom ASIC (application specific integrated circuit) would be a thankless task.

    We got to talking about a concept I read in EE Times earlier that month; the internet of heavier things (IoHT). IoHT basically means wiring  up or making smart fixed infrastructure and machinery. Venture capital firm KPCB think that the IoHT will generate $14.2 trillion of global output by 2030.

    The boosters for it like KCPB think that this opportunity revolves around a number of use cases:

    • Being able to flag up when preventative servicing is required. (For a lot of manufacturing machinery, companies like Foxboro Instruments – (Now Foxboro by Schneider Electric and Invensys Foxboro respectively) – had been doing this prior to the widespread implementation of TCP-IP network protocols). It is the bread and butter of SCADA systems. But it could be bridges and viaducts indicating that they need work done
    • MRI machines and other medical equipment that are financed on a per scan unit rather than as a capital cost. Basically extending the enterprise photocopier model into capital equipment expenditure
    • Machinery that is continuously re-designed based on user feedback

    Kicking it around with my Dad got some interesting answers:

    Flagging up items for servicing was seen to be a positive thing, however, how would this work with the reality of life in a manufacturing plant. Take a continuous process, say something like an oil refinery or food production line where the whole line needs to be shut down to enact changes, which is the reason why maintenance is scheduled in well in advance, on an annual or semi-annual basis. The process needs to take into account the whole supply chain beyond the factory and both shutdown and start-up are likely to be a complex undertaking. When I worked in the petrochemical industry before going to college; the planning process for a shutdown took six to nine months. Secondly, there was redundancy built into some of the plant so certain things that might need to be taken off line on a regular basis could be. A second consideration is that plants are often not off-the-peg but require a good deal of tailoring to the site. Plants generally aren’t new, there is a thriving market in pre-owned equipment. In the places I worked this included equipment such as such as pressure vessels, electric motors and valves – all of this would have implications for interoperability.

    Lastly, what would be the implications when when the ethereal nature of technology underpinning the internet of heavier things met infrastructure that has a realistic life of a hundred plus years in the case of bridges or buildings?

    Looking at the defence industry, we can see how maintenance costs and upgrading technology drives much of the spending on weapons systems – a bridge will generally last longer than a B52 bomber or a Hercules transport plane (both are 60 years old systems).

    Financing on a per-use unit cost. This was discussed less, the general consensus was that this could dampen innovation as the likes of GE Medical would become finance houses rather than health technology companies, in the similar direction to what happened with Xerox or an early 21st century Sony.

    Machinery that is continually redesigned on user feedback sparked a mix of concern and derision from my Dad. It seemed to be based on a premise that products aren’t evolved already – they are changed. The pace of change is a compromise between user feedback, component supply issues and backward serviceability. Moving to an ‘always beta’ model like consumer software development could have a negative impact on product quality, safety and product life due to issues with serviceability of equipment.

    More info
    Introducing the IoHT (Internet of Heavier Things) | EE Times
    The Industrial Awakening: The Internet of Heavier Things | KCPB
    What does technology adoption really mean?
    Old 2.0: interfaces and use cases
    Old 2.0: adventures in retail
    Old 2.0: On the virtual road
    On the road 2
    On the road
    Web 2.old